RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
Ohokaman

Dear oh dear…..Auckland Cup downgraded to Group 2…

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3 minutes ago, scooby3051 said:

Will be plenty more to follow too...ever since they moved it and changed the conditions of the race it has gone downhill in my opinion.its like moving the Easter handicap from easter.Makes no sense.

And the Easter Handicap has gone down to Group 3 as a result……:rolleyes:

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53 minutes ago, Blue said:

So what are we left with? Are the Karaka millions the only group 1 races in town now?

I guess you know ,but for others benefits the Karaka Millions races are listed races.

There are a total of 6 other Group 1's under alert /warning including the NZ Derby , but there has only been a loss of 2 x Group 1's over the past 7 seasons ,from 22 to 20.

The main reason is the lack of quality of horse flesh......that seems reasonable and there could be more losing the Group 1 status in the next couple of years.

But what difference does it make to the Auckland Cup.

It still our 'main' 2 x mile race and still holds the prestige and the Stake !

Of course the new amalgamated club intends increasing the stakes of all races and to put on more 'prestige' races with $500k stakes.

Other than a mares breeding page ......whats the big deal !

Many posters on these pages have down -graded the NZ Group 1's of 2 x recently retired champion mares and now that ONE plodders race has been downgraded some are grizzling !

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Tasman Man

You have got to be kidding. The fundamentals of the industry is to benchmark the merits of the horse populations’ ability so that we can peg the financial viability of the industry. That means race horses, stallions, mares, trainers and jockeys. To lose yet another group one race is inexcusable and for it to be the Auckland Cup, even worse. 
 

how can anyone let this happen? It was on New Years Day. It drew crowds and had prestige. Moved to March and we’re told it wouldn’t work as the pattern got screwed. 
 

For fucks sake. You people in the NZTR….get off your backsides and fight for this one. Change the game. Be courageous. Take the fight to the system and show us you have some leadership skills and ambition.

No wonder I was rejected as a potential NZTR member. I applied and didn’t even get an interview which goes to show how protective of their failure model is.

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4 minutes ago, Berri said:

Tasman Man

You have got to be kidding. The fundamentals of the industry is to benchmark the merits of the horse populations’ ability so that we can peg the financial viability of the industry. That means race horses, stallions, mares, trainers and jockeys. To lose yet another group one race is inexcusable and for it to be the Auckland Cup, even worse. 
 

how can anyone let this happen? It was on New Years Day. It drew crowds and had prestige. Moved to March and we’re told it wouldn’t work as the pattern got screwed. 
 

For fucks sake. You people in the NZTR….get off your backsides and fight for this one. Change the game. Be courageous. Take the fight to the system and show us you have some leadership skills and ambition.

No wonder I was rejected as a potential NZTR member. I applied and didn’t even get an interview which goes to show how protective of their failure model is.

Not really champ....you yourself rubbish and put down NZ 's top racehorses and the standard of racing here .

I assume your horse interests  are focused overseas and your successes would seem to support that and you post freely on English racing etc

You highlight the lack of choice in Champagne brands available at the races.......you obviously on a higher level than many of us !

NZ has 20 Group 1 races and 150 listed races and above.....sadly the 2 x mile races in NZ don't seem to be targeted like the old days by horse people like yourself yet the BIGGEST days in NZ betting and interest are still the days which hold our 3 x main races ...the NZ Cup , the WellingtonCup and the Auckland Cup.

Still our most prestigious races , even though they Group 2 and Group 3......with the higher stakes.

A lot of things sad aboutNZ ......do you have the answers ?.... 24 horse fields and champagne served in bars !

The day change you referred to happened a decade ago ,or more !

Its reality ......like the Great Northern ,great race ,great history but few horses ,fewer jockeys and no one bets on it.

 

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1 hour ago, Berri said:

Tasman Man

You have got to be kidding. The fundamentals of the industry is to benchmark the merits of the horse populations’ ability so that we can peg the financial viability of the industry. That means race horses, stallions, mares, trainers and jockeys. To lose yet another group one race is inexcusable and for it to be the Auckland Cup, even worse. 
 

how can anyone let this happen? It was on New Years Day. It drew crowds and had prestige. Moved to March and we’re told it wouldn’t work as the pattern got screwed. 
 

For fucks sake. You people in the NZTR….get off your backsides and fight for this one. Change the game. Be courageous. Take the fight to the system and show us you have some leadership skills and ambition.

No wonder I was rejected as a potential NZTR member. I applied and didn’t even get an interview which goes to show how protective of their failure model is.

Was the  change from New Years Day as a result of the Deloitte / Arthur Anderson Report that lead up to the decision to change the day of this Race?

Those Reports and related surveys on Racegoers need to see Sunlight to have Open Conversations how to improve our industry.

The lead up discussion and change of dates originated in the early 2000 era.

I recall the reasoning behind it was because, 'People don't stay in Auckland after Boxing Day Races' - they are the words we were quoted by one of those on the ARC Board at the time and were mortified.

I'm sure they are eating their socks now they are restricted with travel.... maybe they will see the error of their own short-sighted and selfish thinking

Once again @Berri you raise very relevant points.

With the change to March, along with the change to a later date for The Great Northern from Public Holiday weekends to random dates when people were not about it was because they aimed at the Corporate sector to have a day out from the office to drink and party.

How many of those people are about now or have spare dosh?

Those who were behind the date changes, as per reason we were quoted, people lack of knowledge of the wider industry has resulted in the Racing industry losing a lot of it's traditional supporters, including the mums and dads who have children looking for affordable entertainment in Auckland who stayed in Auckland for whatever reason.

These children are are future in Racing.

We are aware the Breweries were in part behind these changes to line there own pockets through our connections with those at Lion Breweries Marketing team who knew ZILCH about Racing.

It annoyed us then and it annoys us even more now seeing the 'consequences' and lack of accountability of these NON Racing types who probably have probably never attended a day at the Races since.

They are the same ones who are involved in Sponsorship dollars and partying with America's Cup and probably know stuff all about that to.

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NZ has too many pattern races (aka black type) as a percentage of its total race population.  It is 6% compared to desired international of 5%.   So effectively we have roughly another 20% races to be removed.

 

NZ has 150 black type races and that should be aboout 125.  However the fly in the ointment is that our horse population is shrinking fast, 600 hundred less foals last year and more horses sold overseas (especially one winners).  So our horse population will need less races, this means that suddenly that 125 desired number might become100.

 

To meet overseas markets we are breeding more sprinter-milers rather than stayers.  So the Auckland Club quality naturally reduces too.  

 

NZ racing ratings are tied to international ratings but done in NZ and these are the basis for pattern racing ratings (based on top 4 finishers ratings at end of season).  However if the World Ratings are to be used for our pattern racing ratings then you will see number of group 1s, 2s dissapear fast.

NZ breeders (and rightfully so) like to throw statistics around like with 5% of horses in Australia we win 20% of black type.  These seems great on face of it, however horses that go to Australia are above average (brought at K1, brought as a trial or race performer, or campaigned as a good horse).  I would say European horses would be less than 1% of population and win over 10% of black type races.  My statistics are done here to show a point rather than total fact (but they will be close enough).

The Auckland merger is our one shining light!!

 

 

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1 hour ago, meomy said:

Was the  change from New Years Day as a result of the Deloitte / Arthur Anderson Report that lead up to the decision to change the day of this Race?

Those Reports and related surveys on Racegoers need to see Sunlight to have Open Conversations how to improve our industry.

The lead up discussion and change of dates originated in the early 2000 era.

I recall the reasoning behind it was because, 'People don't stay in Auckland after Boxing Day Races' - they are the words we were quoted by one of those on the ARC Board at the time and were mortified.

I'm sure they are eating their socks now they are restricted with travel.... maybe they will see the error of their own short-sighted and selfish thinking

Once again @Berri you raise very relevant points.

With the change to March, along with the change to a later date for The Great Northern from Public Holiday weekends to random dates when people were not about it was because they aimed at the Corporate sector to have a day out from the office to drink and party.

How many of those people are about now or have spare dosh?

Those who were behind the date changes, as per reason we were quoted, people lack of knowledge of the wider industry has resulted in the Racing industry losing a lot of it's traditional supporters, including the mums and dads who have children looking for affordable entertainment in Auckland who stayed in Auckland for whatever reason.

These children are are future in Racing.

We are aware the Breweries were in part behind these changes to line there own pockets through our connections with those at Lion Breweries Marketing team who knew ZILCH about Racing.

It annoyed us then and it annoys us even more now seeing the 'consequences' and lack of accountability of these NON Racing types who probably have probably never attended a day at the Races since.

They are the same ones who are involved in Sponsorship dollars and partying with America's Cup and probably know stuff all about that to.

Had a bit to do with Lion Breweries and their Auckland Cup sponsorship. Having the Auckland Trotting Cup on New Years Eve and the ARC on New Years Day was a fixed calendar event for many, particularly from the South Island who would holiday up here for a week or two with family and friends, and both events were hugely successful. Once the dates chopped and changed they didn’t fit in with usual holiday travel plans and people were confused as to what was on when….hardly surprising then that interest started to drop off. The ATC learned from their error, it will be interesting to see if the ARC do likewise.

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There used to be a proud tradition in Australasia of G1 3200m staying races. The Sydney Cup won't be G1 for much longer you would think and the Melbourne Cup has fallen away so that without the internationals it would be a very weak race. Just a sign of the times.

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There used to be a pattern. It was set up over a century ago where a sequence of races starting at the beginning of the year set up the Auckland Cup to test a horse over 3200m. That pattern included a number of staying races in both the north and south islands, where the "south island championship" was the New Zealand Cup. Along the way the likes of the Waikato and Avondale Cups made up some of those races. Not that long ago there were good horses in those races and the Auckland Cup. The Auckland Cup was looked upon across the ditch as a great indicator to the Melbourne Cup!! What has happened over this time. Staying races in this country are 2200m races and we don't have the staying races for younger horses. We can't compete with the Aussies over the shorter distances, so what we do?....reduce our distance program to the scrap heap.

I know I've got to post some figures on staying races and numbers in races (forgot to follow up with my UK compatriots), and I will in due course, but we've become a sycophantically run nothing. We have no direction, no strategy, no real leadership and as a result, we have become nothing. I'm actually sick of it. I used to have shares in 15, now only three. Everywhere I look I see mediocrity and complacency. Losing group one status for the Auckland Cup is the fault of all of those useless bureaucrats who have been in charge for the past 5 years. That's when the warning came and no-one has fought for it, become courageous and brave to fight the cause, or intelligent enough to figure out what to do to make sure the race didn't fall between the cracks.  

And if any of you argue against this, go and find the same heap all the other useless people should have been put on. This is a disgrace. Wouldn't happen in Sydney or Victoria.

 

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I’m not sure the demise of domestic racing is that simple 

It’s a bit like a Venn diagram, if failure ( the diminished quality of group racing ) is at the centre the contributing factors are numerous.

NZ’s don’t bet so there’s no fuel for the engine 

The RIU investigative division has tarnished the racing brand so much with their chicanery, mind you I’m living in hope that Mike Clements might bring the word “ Integrity “ back into the RIU 

The handicapping model is totally inappropriate for this country and it’s forcing useful / decent horses out of the game far too soon 

We actually have too much of everything and could do with a huge rationalization of assets 

That said I do admire the passionate commitment of some, Peter Vela and NZB, Tasman Man is a beauty, Cubes in the south, Berrifruit and his delightful eccentricity, and the amazingly resilient breeders who just keep on keeping on.

Then of course there’s the lure of actually getting involved, not just being a sideline critic as most here are…..and there’s no rush like owning a good one. That rush is never going to go away so I’m sure racing in NZ will survive well beyond every single one of us 

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“NZ’s don’t bet so there’s no fuel for the engine”

Betting on races right now is a spluttering engine.

This latest lockdown environment appears to have created a permanent “correction” to the TAB’s weekly racing turnover and therefore a significantly reduced annual gross margin.

Summed up well Leo. Racing here in all 3 codes will endure, however never to be run with competency at a legislative/governance level nor efficiency at an operational level.

There’s forever been that $50m plus of costs in the industry that some would pluck from the low hanging branches however we have excess red tape wrapped around it all. Can’t see that changing in our life….

 

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The problem is that we (the proverbial group of horse minded people) could see this was going to happen in the early 90’s with the advent of the internet. It was glaringly obvious. It is as glaringly obvious as the effect the blockchain is about to have. So we have to regig the game but once again, no one listens.

there are layers of issues, and it won’t die out, but it doesn’t help society or horses to be drawn into this level of incompetence. It’s not necessary and mind numbingly stupid to gut and pluck the industry where the option portfolio becomes so limited that there are limited choices. Bad decisions are made under duress. 
 

wake up everyone 

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1 hour ago, Berri said:

The problem is that we (the proverbial group of horse minded people) could see this was going to happen in the early 90’s with the advent of the internet. It was glaringly obvious. It is as glaringly obvious as the effect the blockchain is about to have. So we have to regig the game but once again, no one listens.

there are layers of issues, and it won’t die out, but it doesn’t help society or horses to be drawn into this level of incompetence. It’s not necessary and mind numbingly stupid to gut and pluck the industry where the option portfolio becomes so limited that there are limited choices. Bad decisions are made under duress. 
 

wake up everyone 

Isn’t it easier to just send your decent horses to Ozz ? 
 

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6 hours ago, poundforpound said:

Isn’t it easier to just send your decent horses to Ozz ? 
 

Exactly what is done and why our fields are shit.
Who can blame owners the way racing is run here taking in stakes levels vs expenses factor.
The corporate chunts running racing are doing alright bleeding the industry dry as they've done in recent years with their big salary's and incompetent decision making.

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On 9/28/2021 at 11:33 AM, poundforpound said:

Isn’t it easier to just send your decent horses to Ozz ? 
 

I can't see them race because I can't get back into NZ would be my first response. My second is that I actually quite like to go and visit them. That's part of it as well. I used to drop everything to get to the course to see them run but now that just fills me with frustrations as I watch everything deteriorate to mediocracy.  I also walk my box knowing that it could be so different but can't be because I don't see any direction, courage, forward thinking and straight out technology and business sense to stop things like the Auckland Cup from being downgraded.

There is a big difference between being mediocre and being a leading group of people who use imagination, intelligence and courage to thwart the challenge of disaster.

4-5 years ago I approached Bernard with a program that allowed fractionalised ownership of horses. I was initially told it couldn’t be done legally due to the FMA. I argued that the Act and the NZTR bi-laws provided the appropriate relief and this was allowable. The NZTR’s legals finally agreed with my position. I then started the process of explaining how to allow this to happen technically because the NZTR’s databases and systems cannot handle this type of data volume and use.

The reason for this fractionalisation was that if you stimulate ownership, you stimulate the industry population and participation. The one reason this initiative was that both the Eater Handicap and the Auckland Cup were under review in relation to their group status. The International Federation of Horse Racing provides this guidance:

To attain or maintain a Group One status, the average rating for the first four finishers in the race must be 115 or higher over a three-year period. “

The ultimate plan was to provide security to the group status of these races whilst improving participation. The ultimate plan was to buy 6 international race horses who could compete in the Auckland Cup, who could then proceed to Australian racing. The key was that each of these horses needed to have a rating of over 118, because although the guidelines are all about the first 4 home, if good NZ horses beat any of these runners, and they ran up to their form, then the NZ runners get past 115 on ratings. Of these 6 horses set for the Auckland Cup, only 4 highly rated horses were needed in the race for it to remain a group one. My theory was that we lost 2 on the way through (not dying - just not getting there), and each were rated 115 or higher, that would have lifted the scale to prevent a downgrade. Simple maths. The likes of Who Shot The Barman is a good example of NZ horses proving the supporting role. Do that every year for three years and we would avoid a downgrade for the next 6 years, but by then we have a completely different sponsorship proposition for the future.

The imagination part of this was interesting. Each horse of this type, with a 118 rating, cost between US$1-2m a piece, meaning we needed to find $10m to pull it off, with various deals being done to enable the plan to float. We had an underwrite in place but were going to offer micro share holdings to 100,000 people at $100 each. This was to be coupled with the ARC sponsors and product promotions and a rewards system that made the entire package a gimmie for anyone wanting to have a bit of fun. Imagine a proportion of 100,000 people wanted to get to Elerslie. Nice for the club. So what's it worth to the club and the racing industry, with the sponsors, to get 100,000 people involved? That just so happens to be 25% of the people currently involved in racing.

But the technical side of it was the challenge. A new database needed to be developed and I had promoted the opportunity to be able to trade the share on an exchange of some sort, but this was phase 2.

But like most industry promotions, nothing came of it. We couldn’t seem to get the gravitas and I gave up. I could do it differently now with the advent of blockchain developments.

Where did it fall down?....the technical inability to have a 100,000 syndicate because of the lack of systems and the right data stores, and the lack of forethought and courage to do it.

That's just a taste but no-one wanted to listen properly.

I think back on things like this because if you look at the Windsor Park Plate (a group 1 race), and you look at the ratings, the highest rating is 107 with only one other over 100. Are you hearing anything from the Petone tower that might make you feel confident that we're doing something out of the box to help?

Yeah...Naaa

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The underlying problem though Berrifruit is that we don’t have a strong gambling ethos in NZ and the industry consequently is financially weak 

We have assets of course, but the structure of NZ clubs and their respective constitutions invariably preclude cashing up redundant assets to create a better national model that would in turn allow us to create a better product that we might be able to sell abroad, something of HK quality 

Anyway I’m in the hospo space and we’ve got far bigger problems than racing ( if that’s of any comfort )

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3 hours ago, Berri said:

I can't see them race because I can't get back into NZ would be my first response. My second is that I actually quite like to go and visit them. That's part of it as well. I used to drop everything to get to the course to see them run but now that just fills me with frustrations as I watch everything deteriorate to mediocracy.  I also walk my box knowing that it could be so different but can't be because I don't see any direction, courage, forward thinking and straight out technology and business sense to stop things like the Auckland Cup from being downgraded.

There is a big difference between being mediocre and being a leading group of people who use imagination, intelligence and courage to thwart the challenge of disaster.

4-5 years ago I approached Bernard with a program that allowed fractionalised ownership of horses. I was initially told it couldn’t be done legally due to the FMA. I argued that the Act and the NZTR bi-laws provided the appropriate relief and this was allowable. The NZTR’s legals finally agreed with my position. I then started the process of explaining how to allow this to happen technically because the NZTR’s databases and systems cannot handle this type of data volume and use.

The reason for this fractionalisation was that if you stimulate ownership, you stimulate the industry population and participation. The one reason this initiative was that both the Eater Handicap and the Auckland Cup were under review in relation to their group status. The International Federation of Horse Racing provides this guidance:

To attain or maintain a Group One status, the average rating for the first four finishers in the race must be 115 or higher over a three-year period. “

The ultimate plan was to provide security to the group status of these races whilst improving participation. The ultimate plan was to buy 6 international race horses who could compete in the Auckland Cup, who could then proceed to Australian racing. The key was that each of these horses needed to have a rating of over 118, because although the guidelines are all about the first 4 home, if good NZ horses beat any of these runners, and they ran up to their form, then the NZ runners get past 115 on ratings. Of these 6 horses set for the Auckland Cup, only 4 highly rated horses were needed in the race for it to remain a group one. My theory was that we lost 2 on the way through (not dying - just not getting there), and each were rated 115 or higher, that would have lifted the scale to prevent a downgrade. Simple maths. The likes of Who Shot The Barman is a good example of NZ horses proving the supporting role. Do that every year for three years and we would avoid a downgrade for the next 6 years, but by then we have a completely different sponsorship proposition for the future.

The imagination part of this was interesting. Each horse of this type, with a 118 rating, cost between US$1-2m a piece, meaning we needed to find $10m to pull it off, with various deals being done to enable the plan to float. We had an underwrite in place but were going to offer micro share holdings to 100,000 people at $100 each. This was to be coupled with the ARC sponsors and product promotions and a rewards system that made the entire package a gimmie for anyone wanting to have a bit of fun. Imagine a proportion of 100,000 people wanted to get to Elerslie. Nice for the club. So what's it worth to the club and the racing industry, with the sponsors, to get 100,000 people involved? That just so happens to be 25% of the people currently involved in racing.

But the technical side of it was the challenge. A new database needed to be developed and I had promoted the opportunity to be able to trade the share on an exchange of some sort, but this was phase 2.

But like most industry promotions, nothing came of it. We couldn’t seem to get the gravitas and I gave up. I could do it differently now with the advent of blockchain developments.

Where did it fall down?....the technical inability to have a 100,000 syndicate because of the lack of systems and the right data stores, and the lack of forethought and courage to do it.

That's just a taste but no-one wanted to listen properly.

I think back on things like this because if you look at the Windsor Park Plate (a group 1 race), and you look at the ratings, the highest rating is 107 with only one other over 100. Are you hearing anything from the Petone tower that might make you feel confident that we're doing something out of the box to help?

Yeah...Naaa

That sounds like a hell of a lot of effort just to help the Auckland Cup retain its group status. When was the last time it was won by a decent horse? Other than Who Shot the Barman you probably have to go back to Jezabeel about 25 years ago. At least the NZ Cup can list Empire Rose among its list of winners.

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