RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
richie

Avantage retired

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An absolutely outstanding mare with a great pedigree, her half sister (Asathought) is one of the most promising up and comers in SI

We had the privilege of running 2nd to Avantage three times, she was very well placed throughout her career

I’d be quite keen to give the connections a service to SENSEI and go halves in the resulting foal!!!!!!😋🤙🏻🐴

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CURRENT FIELDS

PERFORMANCE STA

CAREER STAT

  All 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th U Prizemoney
Career 28 16 6 2 1 0 3 $2,166,001.20
2021/22 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 $1,650.00
2020/21 10 6 3 1 0 0 0 $740,000.00
2019/20 8 3 2 0 1 0 2 $427,895.60
2018/19 3 2 0 1 0 0 0 $234,085.60
2017/18 6 5 1 0 0 0 0 $762,370.00
                 
Good 9 6 2 0 0 0 1 $968,420.30
Dead 14 8 3 1 1 0 1 $858,085.00
Slow 4 1 1 1 0 0 1 $251,648.70
Heavy 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 $87,847.20
 
0 - 1099m 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 $28,120.00
1100 - 1299m 13 8 3 1 0 0 1 $1,303,810.60
1300 - 1499m 5 2 0 1 1 0 1 $266,910.30
1500 - 1799m 5 3 1 0 0 0 1 $374,660.30
1800 - 2100m 3 1 2 0 0 0 0 $192,500.00
 
Flat 28 16 6 2 1 0 3 $2,166,001.20
 

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The below extract is from the NZTROF Bulletin September 2020. Two of us went to Te Akau farm and interviewed David Ellis. NM

Mike asked David which was the best horse they had trained. After a long silence, David replied. “That is a very hard question, Avantage is right up there. She has Group wins in both Australia and New Zealand, Group One wins at 1200m, 1400m, 1600m and 2000m and a race record there as well. She won her first start in October as a 2YO, won the Karaka 2YO Million, was Champion 2YO of her year, and hasn’t stopped winning since.” 
David explained that Avantage was only beaten once as a 2YO – when she drew the outside gate in the Group 1 Sistema Stakes. However, she resumed her winning streak and went on to win the Group 1 Manawatu Sires’ Produce. 
“To win the Telegraph and the Bonecrusher in the same campaign is hard to achieve, but she did it in style in the 2019/2020 season. It is pretty difficult to purchase horses that can achieve these results and I have got a big thrill out of seeing just how well Jamie Richards has trained this mare.” 

 

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The auction will be interesting. Currently at $1.5million. Comparing how she goes on Gavelhouse with how Melody Belle went at a big traditional auction. Both great race mares being sold in the same year. I am a little surprised the Gavelhouse auction time is relatively short ..finishes on Wed 22nd.

Anyway, good luck to all the bidders.

 

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3 hours ago, Breeder said:

. I am a little surprised the Gavelhouse auction time is relatively short ..finishes on Wed 22nd.

 

 

Well what's left of the breeding season getting pretty short also! No point drawing the process out. I'm surprised it is 4 days--in the ring it might only be 4 minutes. (  I note Te Akau have space on a flight to Oz this weekend if required)

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You're all going to climb into me for the following observations but I don't see it clearly. I'd have loved to own this mare but feet on the ground, I find it difficult to value her in the top top bracket. Her pedigree is so so, she's not big and her form is also so so when you compare her to what there is on the World markets. Franked New Zealand racing form is abysmal. Here in NZ Avantage won 9 group ones. Couldn't win one in Aussie. Got rolled by Melody Belle when they met (and Melody Belle made her look ordinary) where Melody Belle (looking like a champion in NZ) also struggled in Aussie. Go back and look at the horses that both of them beat when winning their group ones and ask yourself the question...would the horses they beat have won a group one in Aussie? Then when Avantage ran into a better one in the form of Te Akau Shark, he thrashed her in the Lion Brown at Te Rapa.

So we have finally come to this place which is horrible...namely that a bloke like me can't value her correctly on her group one form. What a disaster.

So that you can understand what I am talking about I'm going to give you all a basic comparison. And remember I'm talking broodmare potential although this animal was also a Aussie racehorse chance.

This one had been on my radar for a while. Winner on the all weather and turf. Improving all the time. Should be racing in Australia and would make an excellent 4 yo. Great pedigree. Latest start on following link

 

https://www.racingtv.com/racecards/kempton-park/350063-unibet-casino-deposit-10-get-40-bonus-handicap-5?non-runner_display=false

 

image.png.d88ef30ec69dfaf71276b93cf8453897.png

image.png.e00a29ddfe6a1266b17cff3c309bcb94.png

 

image.png.b8d8f6622390c46559fbd7477fe45f2e.png

The two year old, Discoveries, won the Moyglare last week. 

So here's the point, by Camelot Derby winner) out of a Danehill Dancer mare out of a Rahy mare, whose dam is a half sister to three group one winners on the World stage, with one of them being  freak in Alpha Centauri. Just so happens that Miesque appears twice in this pedigree and Camelot's 9th dam is none other than Kincsem, a mare that was never beaten in 59 races all over Europe

image.thumb.png.d48ea7acd6abe338c4665a63f56d5e6a.png

So on hand one is currently at $1.6m, so it may get to $2.2, versus around $300k for Countessa. Which one would you prefer to breed from?

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5 hours ago, Tauhei Notts said:

Berri, that mare won a 2334 metre maiden worth about NZD4600 to the winner, and you talk about her in the same breath as Avantage.  With the end of the Great Northern Steeplechase there will not be races in New Zealand long enough for Countessa's progeny.

There are a few things you need to take into consideration. The first is that the way UK trainers train their horses is that the horse spends a lot of time under saddle and they do a lot of walking and spend materially more time doing slower work. The effect of this is that the fast twitch fibre types gradually have slow twitch characteristics. We describe it as training the speed out of them. When these types of horses get to Australia, where their work patterns are based on speed training structures, these types of horses start performing over shorter distances than they raced over in the UK. That is demonstrated through performers like Contributor, Almaraad,  and At Talaq, to name a few, and very recently Zaaki. There are many examples. So looking at Countessa's races, there is some speed there even though she's winning over 2400m.

Second thing, at her second start she ran 3rd over 2000m she ran third to Onesmoothoperator, who at his next start ran third to Nagano, who recently ran 2nd in a Group 3. That means that over 2000m she was competitive against group horses. 

Another scary thing is who rode her in her first races. Not good jockeys and some looked as though they were humping gumboots.

And finally....the blood. Having pedigrees like hers is 20 pounds better than the pedigrees that we see in NZ. That is franked by the performances of the likes of Melody Belle and Avantage. As there are a number of UK horses racing in Australia, bot of these mares' form can be franked against the UK pattern.

So...as a broodmare...which do you think is the better bet? The benefit of Countessa is that she is probably quite a good race mare so there's serious fun and earning potential before breeding next year. So...$1.625m vs $300,000?

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31 minutes ago, Berri said:

There are a few things you need to take into consideration. The first is that the way UK trainers train their horses is that the horse spends a lot of time under saddle and they do a lot of walking and spend materially more time doing slower work. The effect of this is that the fast twitch fibre types gradually have slow twitch characteristics. We describe it as training the speed out of them. When these types of horses get to Australia, where their work patterns are based on speed training structures, these types of horses start performing over shorter distances than they raced over in the UK. That is demonstrated through performers like Contributor, Almaraad,  and At Talaq, to name a few, and very recently Zaaki. There are many examples. So looking at Countessa's races, there is some speed there even though she's winning over 2400m.

Second thing, at her second start she ran 3rd over 2000m she ran third to Onesmoothoperator, who at his next start ran third to Nagano, who recently ran 2nd in a Group 3. That means that over 2000m she was competitive against group horses. 

Another scary thing is who rode her in her first races. Not good jockeys and some looked as though they were humping gumboots.

And finally....the blood. Having pedigrees like hers is 20 pounds better than the pedigrees that we see in NZ. That is franked by the performances of the likes of Melody Belle and Avantage. As there are a number of UK horses racing in Australia, bot of these mares' form can be franked against the UK pattern.

So...as a broodmare...which do you think is the better bet? The benefit of Countessa is that she is probably quite a good race mare so there's serious fun and earning potential before breeding next year. So...$1.625m vs $300,000?

Well I’ve ridden the best in both hemispheres and I feel confident saying there’s fuck all difference in raw ability except that

1. UK horses have round actions because they work uphill with their knees permanently flexed ( that covers for conformational deficiencies like being flat through or backward at the knee ), that they lose their speed because they work up hill, they’re typically a bit too long in the back and lack “proportional” leg under them so they lack strength in the lower back which means they can’t turn their hooves over quickly enough like the really good international sprinters can….

2. good Australasian horses have much better actions and use less knee which means they’re better on good ground, they are more robust and sound, hence they race longer and have more starts in their careers 

3. Aussie trainers work their horses less, they’re better trainers since John Size changed the way they think and the training model they mimic, and in Ozz a battler has a chance to make it big if they’re good enough, and no one gives a fuck whether you went to Eton, Oxford or Cambridge, or whether Daddy liked rooting donkeys 

Give me any half decent horse from the UK, up to 2000m, I’ll give it to Waller or Moody, and they’ll improve it ten lengths over a mile 

Nothing personal Berrifruit but you’ve got to get over your bizarre anglophilia ….

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The very very best of Australia would find the very very best in the UK hard to rumble. In addition, there are more very best in the UK than in Aussie. Every man and their dog from the NH are winning the cox plate when those that win are not the very very best in the UK. Over sprint distances it is different but I'm not sure its the bloodstock but in the way they train them. All you've got to do is ask yourself whether Zaaki was capable to beating the best in the UK. On bare form I would find that thesis hard to support.

Nothing to do with being an anglophile...just basing it on bare faced facts and stats. Frank the form and that argument is sustainable.

As for why these horses improve when coming from the NH....I put the fast/ slow twitch fibre type training to answer that question which is why the filly I put up previously has a bit more merit than the bare form might suggest. We were going to have a crack but it was withdrawn on the day of the sale.

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think a spot in the Justify book will be made available - Avantage bred on same cross as Atlantic Jewel (Fastnet Rock out of Zabeel mare) who was bred 5 times to Galileo and then died 5 days after giving birth to her now yearling in Oz by Justify ..........Coolmore Aus have sent all of their best mares to him the last 2 years and no doubt she will also end up there

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