RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
uneasy

AWT

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I know the tosser that has all the uninformed say on the other chat site reads this - he will prove it by his negative comments after reading this!!

The laying of the polytrack began on Friday Reid Sanders and his Australian foreman Matt Chase flew in to Christchurch Thursday ( I had a meeting with them, Tim Mills and Rene Neilson Thursday arvo) and the track should be fully laid and in use before the end of August. I had a good look at it Saturday morning and it looks great.  We will have one of the very best AWT due to shape, size and length of home straight

I believe work begins on Awapuni very soon, possibly next week!!!

So all the tossers can look on say all the negative shit they want to but it’s all go!!

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Got friends with a 3yo filly trained on a black sand beach. Took it to Cambridge trials worried about how it would handle the surface first run. It won its trial with ease. They are believers now.

Look at the OPEN Trials last Thursday and see all the $$$$$$ Te Akau horses that ran.

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2 hours ago, Chris Wood said:

The track is superb, horses win from anywhere in the running, horses that have never been on it before win on it, great addition to NZ Racing.

I did wonder Chris if it would suit some horses more than others. Any reports of horses not handling the surface that you know of ?

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2 hours ago, Chris Wood said:

The track is superb, horses win from anywhere in the running, horses that have never been on it before win on it, great addition to NZ Racing.

Chris, has the good form shown on the AWT  by some horsse been continued  by them when they have returned to grass?

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11 hours ago, uneasy said:

I know the tosser that has all the uninformed say on the other chat site reads this - he will prove it by his negative comments after reading this!!

The laying of the polytrack began on Friday Reid Sanders and his Australian foreman Matt Chase flew in to Christchurch Thursday ( I had a meeting with them, Tim Mills and Rene Neilson Thursday arvo) and the track should be fully laid and in use before the end of August. I had a good look at it Saturday morning and it looks great.  We will have one of the very best AWT due to shape, size and length of home straight

I believe work begins on Awapuni very soon, possibly next week!!!

So all the tossers can look on say all the negative shit they want to but it’s all go!!

Michael

Are the tracks that you are building going to have straights that are longer than 600m? How many horses are going to be able to race against each other?

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1 hour ago, uneasy said:

Close to 600m

14 horse fields

So knowing that we are entering an environment of animal welfare and health and safety, why would you create a track that requires horses to be accelerating as they are going around bends? Two things come to mind....means that results could be biased in respect of barrier draws and issues of injury arising at a time when we need to be creating a safer environment as the animal rights people's voices become louder. I've watched so much synthetic track racing that I've seen it all. Turning tracks during acceleration doesn't help these causes.

In respect of horse numbers it could be said that it is true that we currently probably don't have too much pressure on field sizes because the horse numbers have been gutted and the powers that be have ignored this fact because from where I am sitting, there is a concerted political effort to curtail it at best, and rub t out at worst. But despite saying this, betting increases when the distances of races increase where the populous of a specific grade of horse are racing against each other and there are at least 20 runners, with the optimum being when there are at least 24 runners. When this happens, betting sky rockets. By building a 14 horse capacity racecourse you have simply ruled yourself out of reaching that sort of potential.

At the very worst the tracks circumference should enable starts to occur at 2400m points where there is a long lead up to the first bend. Staying races are the future despite the current trends as they give owners and horses more options. We have had this completely ignored in this country and the staying program in Australia is now appreciably better than in NZ....go figure that.

Why would anyone do this when these tracks should be Greenfield developments for the future?

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7 hours ago, crustyngrizzly said:

Chris, has the good form shown on the AWT  by some horsse been continued  by them when they have returned to grass?

Can’t say I have followed this closely, my horse Funtonic didn’t have a problem. 
Look at the judicial reports for the meetings on Saturday and see how many horses that ran and the riders blamed the track conditions, and TeRapa is one of the better surfaces, just saying!

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Chris....this isn't a case of whether a particular horse goes on the track or not. Some will, some won't. What's at stake here is the potential for the future.

How many times have you driven along a road which has taken forever to build, where you've said to yourself, "for fucks sake why didn't they build this bigger for the future?" Maybe I'm just wired that way and many of you don't say that to yourselves but in this instance I look at these racetracks and question the thought behind limiting the number of runners to sub optimal numbers, having the inability to start 2400m races at the optimal position on the track because the run up to any bend is too short, ensuring that the barrier draw isn't producing an effect of bias and finally, the real wolf in sheep's clothes, that it might be construed that the track may be harmful to the horse.

Don't you see this or am I really in la la land? Maybe I'm just getting old and crotchety but to my mind these are basic basic issues.

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Good on Cambridge. They took on the project in an environment of uncertainty and animosity. You would have been appalled by what trainers had to use previously!

The industry acceptance and success of the surface suggests no doubt something like suggested above will form part of a Greenfields site - whenever that may be?

 

 

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I don’t really see that Berri to be honest, I think the field sizes are adequate, be interesting to see how many Riccarton can accomodate.

To me, more of a concern is where the horse numbers will be coming from, I hear so many small breeders not sending their mares to stud, foal crop will once again be down on the previous year, it will hit home eventually!

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On 7/25/2021 at 3:29 AM, uneasy said:

I know the tosser that has all the uninformed say on the other chat site reads this - he will prove it by his negative comments after reading this!!

The laying of the polytrack began on Friday Reid Sanders and his Australian foreman Matt Chase flew in to Christchurch Thursday ( I had a meeting with them, Tim Mills and Rene Neilson Thursday arvo) and the track should be fully laid and in use before the end of August. I had a good look at it Saturday morning and it looks great.  We will have one of the very best AWT due to shape, size and length of home straight

I believe work begins on Awapuni very soon, possibly next week!!!

So all the tossers can look on say all the negative shit they want to but it’s all go!!

Just ignore him and the negative crowd that pervade that site. Not a positive thing to say about anything to do with NZ racing. probably why only 4 or 5 post on his site.

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2 hours ago, JJ Flash said:

Just ignore him and the negative crowd that pervade that site. Not a positive thing to say about anything to do with NZ racing. probably why only 4 or 5 post on his site.

Well I gotta say mate , that is pretty miserable thing to say. Hope you don't back hand slander the kiwis at the Olympics like you do some folk just having an opinion on forums? your fellow kiwis too. Maybe you've read to much Pound4pound and want to get stuck in to everyone like him. you poor thing in that case. 

I think i'm pretty positive (unlike your comment here) and tried to dish up some tips here and there to help people out . and enjoy the racing too !!

Hope you back a winner soon , to cheer up a bit.

 

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4 hours ago, Chris Wood said:

I don’t really see that Berri to be honest, I think the field sizes are adequate, be interesting to see how many Riccarton can accomodate.

To me, more of a concern is where the horse numbers will be coming from, I hear so many small breeders not sending their mares to stud, foal crop will once again be down on the previous year, it will hit home eventually!

I can produce factual data which shows a direct correlation between field size and betting numbers. There is also one that shows the differences between betting in distance versus sprint races. So I'm not looking at this from any other angle apart from what could happen in the future. If you know that these are direct correlations, then shouldn't we make sure that in the event  of the stars aligning, then at the very least, we can provide what they was as customers?

As to the field numbers and numbers of horses, if I said to you that I knew how to provide 8 races a week worth $100,000 races each with eight $1m races through the year with a correct pattern of races, would we get more owners for horses? Where is the tipping point when there are too few horses? That's the answer to the successful execution of the puzzle. So I agree, at the moment we are getting further into the shit and this needs to be changed. The problem is, have we got the right people to make this change in time? The animal rights lobby is improving its message politically. The racing industry is not.

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3 hours ago, JJ Flash said:

Just ignore him and the negative crowd that pervade that site. Not a positive thing to say about anything to do with NZ racing. probably why only 4 or 5 post on his site.

I get shit on the other channel for rocking the boat occasionly,

BUT, I have been part of the Industry and will gauge results on these tracks,

more importantly as Berri says above, is horse numbers and attracting owners, outside the top trainers./ upping Min.Stakes 

and putting the right people in charge, to, increase crowd numbers and entertainment value,

for both members and public racegoers, should be of prime importance.

 

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1 hour ago, Berri said:

I can produce factual data which shows a direct correlation between field size and betting numbers. There is also one that shows the differences between betting in distance versus sprint races. So I'm not looking at this from any other angle apart from what could happen in the future. If you know that these are direct correlations, then shouldn't we make sure that in the event  of the stars aligning, then at the very least, we can provide what they was as customers?

As to the field numbers and numbers of horses, if I said to you that I knew how to provide 8 races a week worth $100,000 races each with eight $1m races through the year with a correct pattern of races, would we get more owners for horses? Where is the tipping point when there are too few horses? That's the answer to the successful execution of the puzzle. So I agree, at the moment we are getting further into the shit and this needs to be changed. The problem is, have we got the right people to make this change in time? The animal rights lobby is improving its message politically. The racing industry is not.

Berri Berri Berri , admire your enthusiasm.

These betting figures that suggest 2400m 24 horse fields will increase betting ... UK maybe but not here I fear.

Not being rude but we don't have the jockey firepower to field 20-24 runners over a trip , unless the fields are stacked with Mudhoos, Malloos, Gundowrys, Chews.Jogoos, Bohoruns etc.

Our best jockeys go AWOL over winter , and so they should.

I for one are rapt the synthetic is doing it's job.

An old fogie but I'm loving the racing there.

Watching and betting.

Hoping it continues.

Chris has a valid point re foal numbers,

Finally , I don't think the stakes rise to $12k is in any way adequate.

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4 hours ago, Berri said:

I can produce factual data which shows a direct correlation between field size and betting numbers. There is also one that shows the differences between betting in distance versus sprint races. So I'm not looking at this from any other angle apart from what could happen in the future. If you know that these are direct correlations, then shouldn't we make sure that in the event  of the stars aligning, then at the very least, we can provide what they was as customers?

As to the field numbers and numbers of horses, if I said to you that I knew how to provide 8 races a week worth $100,000 races each with eight $1m races through the year with a correct pattern of races, would we get more owners for horses? Where is the tipping point when there are too few horses? That's the answer to the successful execution of the puzzle. So I agree, at the moment we are getting further into the shit and this needs to be changed. The problem is, have we got the right people to make this change in time? The animal rights lobby is improving its message politically. The racing industry is not.

Hi Berri,

Is your factual data from NZ racing or from a jurisdiction which has alternative races over ditch in similar time zone ?

Most NZ horses win two or less races , so I find it hard to understand how big fields of 24 of these slugs would stimulate betting.

NZ trainers often avoid the main races each week ,for the higher stakes cos their slugs simply have no chance in those races even with 7 or 8 opposition...good luck in a field of 24. 

Punters also stray away from maiden/low class staying races.

Are there still just 3 divis in the 24 horse fields ? The small pool of NZ punters would surely lose their money faster ,and don't we already have the option of betting into Australias bigger pools.

And would the lapsed general punter be attracted back from LOTTO 's life changing divis  ?

Tell us more....you seem so confident !

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7 hours ago, tasman man said:

Hi Berri,

Is your factual data from NZ racing or from a jurisdiction which has alternative races over ditch in similar time zone ?

Most NZ horses win two or less races , so I find it hard to understand how big fields of 24 of these slugs would stimulate betting.

NZ trainers often avoid the main races each week ,for the higher stakes cos their slugs simply have no chance in those races even with 7 or 8 opposition...good luck in a field of 24. 

Punters also stray away from maiden/low class staying races.

Are there still just 3 divis in the 24 horse fields ? The small pool of NZ punters would surely lose their money faster ,and don't we already have the option of betting into Australias bigger pools.

And would the lapsed general punter be attracted back from LOTTO 's life changing divis  ?

Tell us more....you seem so confident !

Yes. All the data I have seen suggests that 3 8 horse fields will generate far more betting revenue than one 24 horse field. So say, 3 $30k races (8 runners) cf. 1 90k race (24 runners) seems a better bet to me. It also gives 3 sets of connections the thrill of a win and a decent chunk of prize money cf. 1. Please make your case transparent Berri. I am not convinced.

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Obviously the data doesn't come from New Zealand because we simply don't have any race courses that can take more that 20 horses, let alone 24. Three 8 horse races will produce less betting than three 24 horse fields. Three 24 horse fields that are distance racing produces more betting that three 24 horse sprint fields.

In New Zealand 3 18 horse fields produces more betting than three 14 horse fields and when they are distance races the pattern fits as previously described. So why would you even consider limiting the potential race field numbers to 14, and just as importantly, why would you ensure that you couldn't start a race at the 2400m mark?

I think you blokes don't get the math's, human behavior and the data.  Horse numbers are obviously a serious issue in NZ. I've just been going through the stallion book of 1980 and compared everything with 1993. You want to see the degradation of an industry you just need to read those two books. When Hogan, O'Sullivan and I made our infamous presentation to the RIB in 1993, we debated for days whether we should shock the RIB that we though the foal crop might dip below 5,000. Hogan said go hard, make it 4,000. Now look at it!

 

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