RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
Phar Lap Fan

Levin Classic - my opinion, but I

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think it is a poor field - 8 of 16 rated 74 or lower. Saw replay of 2005 race, won by Wahid, and a good number went on to greater heights. Might happen with this lot but I doubt it.

Is stake not attractive enough or timing wrong, especially for those chasing Filly of the Year points?

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think it is a poor field - 8 of 16 rated 74 or lower. Saw replay of 2005 race, won by Wahid, and a good number went on to greater heights. Might happen with this lot but I doubt it.

Is stake not attractive enough or timing wrong, especially for those chasing Filly of the Year points?

Has to be timing. The stake is good enough, but quite rightly most of the best horses chase the much higher $ down at Riccarton.

In the new year 3YO sprinter milers dont have alot to chase as the races orientate toward higher distances as both sexes build toward the Derby and Oaks.

If you move it, when to? Wellington Carnival in late January and then Ellerslie Carival plus Oaks at Trentham

in March. Should it be in February so horses who go down south can spell and then target it for the late summer or as part of the Autumn campaign?

The exact timing will have a bearinng, but 1400m could be an option?

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What about moving it to the G1 WFA day at Otaki in February? Change the distance and make it one of the main lead ups to the Derby...

The quality has been declining slowly so they need to be proactive about it rather than ending up like the WRC with their feature race. Ellerslie's carnival changes have impacted a number of our major races and this is another victim.

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Clearly, I need to be careful with my comments so these are my own personal observations.

However, since 2000, the Classic field has attracted the same size or larger fields than the 2000 Guineas.

Both Guineas races also benefit from an additional subsidy of close to $100K.

However, it is undoubtedly the impact of the $1m Guineas that has lead to this situation which has IMO undermined the credibility of the Graded Stakes process. This is now irrelevant as the successful Group One races are naturally going to be those in receipt of the largest subsidies.

Changing the timing of the race is almost certainly not an option as the race is embedded in the social calendar.

Perhaps when the Ministers fund dries out, things may change but the impact on races like the Classic reflects decisions made at the top table.

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Clearly, I need to be careful with my comments so these are my own personal observations.

However, since 2000, the Classic field has attracted the same size or larger fields than the 2000 Guineas.

Both Guineas races also benefit from an additional subsidy of close to $100K.

However, it is undoubtedly the impact of the $1m Guineas that has lead to this situation which has IMO undermined the credibility of the Graded Stakes process. This is now irrelevant as the successful Group One races are naturally going to be those in receipt of the largest subsidies.

Changing the timing of the race is almost certainly not an option as the race is embedded in the social calendar.

Perhaps when the Ministers fund dries out, things may change but the impact on races like the Classic reflects decisions made at the top table.

The more people there are that express personal views is always a good thing. From many viewpoints may come one or two that result in change. So vent that spleen!!

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Poor field, agree. Much the same happened last year when the 2000 Guineas was a mil.

The Levin Classic has become secondary, to the 1000/2000 Guineas, whereas before it probably had equal footing, especially if you compare the horses that lined up and previous winners.

If Bayer had not withdrawn there support for the race a few years ago, they would of now.

So does that mean it will be easy to win it tomorrow????????

p.s...if anyone is near the Otaki track would you mind posting a weather report. thanks.

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Have to agree guys. This used to be one of the iconic racedays on the nz racing calendar. Bayer day was huge and attracted wonderful fields and great crowds. The twilight meeting on a thursday had its special place. This years lineup is unfortunate as is the Levin Stakes and what ever happened to the Bayer Consolation? I know times are a changing and I shouldnt live in the past but how do things go backwards and good things go bad? hope things get back on track soon.

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So does that mean it will be easy to win it tomorrow????????

p.s...if anyone is near the Otaki track would you mind posting a weather report. thanks.

Weather today is fine and sunny, a little windy. Track looks fantastic, and will be drying out by the minute.

As for the rest of the thread......@ the end of the day its a G1 for 3YO's with a $200K stake......If the field is that poor and that easy all you knowledgeable knockers should all have one in there, sounds like you think its easy money....:tcheek:

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The $1,000,000 stakes added to those select races have severely affected races like the the Railway and Levin Classic, although the latter hasn't been the same since the sponsors took away the iconic name. Agree with Agent 86, the Thursday twilight was unique and a special occasion, now it just seems like another Friday racemeeting.

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This race probably had 200 horses nominated for it two months ago and the strongest that have survived lined up. This is great placement by a young trainer who works hard. The top Trainers, Moroneys, John Sargent. Steven McKee, Richard Yuill, Keven Gray, Mark Walker, Chris McNab, John Bary, Murray Baker. They all had their best horses available in this race. After a near disaster at Riccarton where Eileen Duhn returned to the birdcage battered and bleeding Francis Finnegan was able to get her home and not only patch her up for this race but come out and win. Remembering that before Riccarton Eileen Dubh hadn't raced since running second in the Gold Trial Stakes over 1200 metres on September 19th this is a very good training feat and should be applauded

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This race probably had 200 horses nominated for it two months ago and the strongest that have survived lined up. This is great placement by a young trainer who works hard. The top Trainers, Moroneys, John Sargent. Steven McKee, Richard Yuill, Keven Gray, Mark Walker, Chris McNab, John Bary, Murray Baker. They all had their best horses available in this race. After a near disaster at Riccarton where Eileen Duhn returned to the birdcage battered and bleeding Francis Finnegan was able to get her home and not only patch her up for this race but come out and win. Remembering that before Riccarton Eileen Dubh hadn't raced since running second in the Gold Trial Stakes over 1200 metres on September 19th this is a very good training feat and should be applauded

Since I'm closely involved with St Germaine I feel qualified to comment here;good on Ronan and his co-owners and trainer, both our fillies tried their hearts out and I just don't accept the rubbish posted here about it being a 'weak'field, in years to come the stud books and sales books will show ' Group 1' alongside their names. End of story.

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Since I'm closely involved with St Germaine I feel qualified to comment here]

Its clearly a weaker field than Christchurch. A softer option for some yet an additional option for others. In years to come the stud books and sales books will hide this.

Good luck to you and congratulations for being connected with such a talented horse.

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There were alot of rubbish horses filling in spots but they were amoungest some very good horses.

Dubh,Stg,Kaaptan and some other promising horses..

Its a pity it comes so close after the guineas.

I wonder if Katie Lee had won, would it still be considered a weak field?

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rated the horses and many were lowly-performed (so far). I do not propose its demotion but, if the fields are not stronger, the market may decide that it is a poor Gr.1 race. I have supported Eileen Dubh before and she was a deserving winner. However, on previous form Katie Lee would have won, for what it's worth.

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Since I'm closely involved with St Germaine I feel qualified to comment here]

Mate, I would agree. Here's a pic of the finish of the Gold Trail Stakes - how quickly people forget. Where is Katie Lee ? There she is in Sir Patrick's colours 3rd behind St. Germaine and Eileen Dubh.

This is not mean't to denigrate Katie Lee who is clearly the best 3yo in NZ at present but to say that if the next two best fillies quinella the Levin Classic then the form isn't that bad. Winning a weak Gr1 doesn't neccessarily make you a bad horse either. tell me how many stakeswinners were behind St. Reims the day he scored a thrilling win in the NZ Derby ? All he could do was win. It's not his fault if the opposition was not up to scratch. Kindergarten cleared maidens mid-week at Poverty Bay !

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Mate, I would agree. Here's a pic of the finish of the Gold Trail Stakes - how quickly people forget. Where is Katie Lee ? There she is in Sir Patrick's colours 3rd behind St. Germaine and Eileen Dubh.

This is not mean't to denigrate Katie Lee who is clearly the best 3yo in NZ at present but to say that if the next two best fillies quinella the Levin Classic then the form isn't that bad. Winning a weak Gr1 doesn't neccessarily make you a bad horse either. tell me how many stakeswinners were behind St. Reims the day he scored a thrilling win in the NZ Derby ? All he could do was win. It's not his fault if the opposition was not up to scratch. Kindergarten cleared maidens mid-week at Poverty Bay !

Thanks Peter. I wasn't going to enter into this post, however after the Group 1 on Friday I felt I had to. As a matter of interest, St Germaine has had 10 race starts, 5 of which have been in Group races,here is her record to date in those races :

2nd Levin Classic (Gp 1)

3rd Sires Produce (Gp 1)

2nd Matamata Breeders Stakes (Gp 2)

2nd Hawkes Bay Guineas (Gp 2)

1st Gold Trail Stakes (Gp 3)

5th 1000 Guineas (Gp 1)

Horses she has raced against,and in some cases beaten include-

The Heckler, Katie Lee,Kaaptan,TeAkau Rose,Corsage,Eileen Dubh,Seven Schillings,Kings Ransom,The Hombre,Joey Massino,Slashing,Aspinal,Keyora,St Fevre,and probably others I cannot recall.

So my defence oh her and Eileen Dubh and the Status of the Levin race is justified imho.

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I dont believe people were saying that the entire field was weak and certainly there were probably 3/4 reasonable (at least) horses in the field. However when you get a group 1 3yo race at the end of spring with over 1/2 the field rated at 70 or less it is no wonder that the Ozzies and others laugh at our group races. Unfortunately imo the race is too close to the guineas (particularly with their subsidised stakes at present). Not sure what the answer is though. Shame because as people have said it was certainly one of the better days racing of the year. Was only 3/4 years ago I think that there were 2 consolations. is this another sign of our industry at the moment

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Maurice, that's a good point about the consolation races which were also very comptitive. A field is generally judged by the best horses in it, not the worst. Every year some no-hopers line up in The Derby at Epsom but most are more interested in which top rated horses have chosen to front.

There is no doubt Levin has been hard hit with Winston's ridiculous hyper-inflation of the Guineas prizemonies. It's chronological proximity to the Riccarton carnival has always presented trainers and connections with hard decisions. The move to the later season date and perhaps an adjustment in distance warrants investigation although I know how ill-disposed NZTR are to Levin and trying to accomodate them will possibly not be on their agenda (Dave I don't expect you to comment on that one).

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Thanks Peter. I'm trying to stay clear of this as it's all to easy to see my opinion or comments as the Club's view and I repeat that this is only my personal opinion. However, it's appropriate to add a few comments.

There's a couple of issues tied up in this debate and perhaps the most obvious is the Group One status.

It would indeed be possible and we've been encouraged to consider a change in timing although we were, to put it politely, surprised to see the suggestion we run in late Jan. I bet you the WRC was surprised too :)

The problem of course is that regardless of what changes we make, there is NO guarantee that subsequent to any change we will retain group one status. This has to be considered in the context of the "pyramid model" where NZTR have flagged another 4 or so Group Ones for the chop.

The timing of the current event is strongly supported by the local community so there is a risk we change the date, lose Group One status and destroy the current event.

I won't comment more broadly on the other points suffice to say we are engaged with NZTR on a regular basis and at least can make our case.

The bigger problem we face is that all four other 3yo only Group Ones receive significant additional subsidies. So it's not a level playing field. The Graded Stakes process is supposedly objective but it simply reflects the subjective decision on these subsidies.

Even so, the Classic continues to perform well given the challenges we face. I should also point out that in 2006 and 2007, the LRC put more of its own money into a lower stakes than the CJC did to either Guineas races. The event still stacks up both on and off course - off course on a Friday was $1.8M compared to $2.1 for the 2000 Guineas on a Saturday.

Anyway, I think I need a new anonymous personna ;)

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Dave, I'm working from memory here but don't the sunsidies on the Guineas races have a finite life ? Do the huge subsidies they enjoy expire in a few years time ?

I would think that the Graded Stakes Committee might be aware of this artificial underpinning for a limited period when considering your race and the impatc the Guineas field has on it at present. I actually felt the field fared better than I feared it would it (won't try saying that after a few wines !) this year.

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You may have a point re the finite life of the Heritage Subsidies - I can't find anything on line but will keep looking.

Winston's gift expires next year.

The Graded Stakes Committee simply turn the handle and generate a number but I think it is reasonable to say they are aware of the broader issues.

Anyway, as you've said, it may turn out to be a stronger field than we all thought.

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