Royal Ascot 2021

[stodge 1,940]

All the previews, news and reviews from next week's fantastic five days in Berkshire.

The weather looks set fair and the ground is currently Good, Good to Firm in places.

Seven races each day but I'll concentrate on the big Group races - three on the first day and at least one each day through the week along with the Group 2 and Group 3 supporting events and snippets from the other events.

Wesley Ward has brought over a reportedly very strong team of juveniles who are always to be feared.

PALACE PIER is 4/9 for the Queen Anne for which 12 have been entered.

BATTAASH is 7/4 for the King's Stand for which there are 16 entries.

English 2000 Guineas winner and Irish 2000 Guineas runner up POETIC FLARE heads 15 entries for the St James's Palace for the 3-y-o colts over 1600m on the Round course.

Final declarations on Sunday (UK).

Hope the racing is available on Trackside or you can watch by some other means for all it's for the night owls with the first race 1.30am NZ and the final race 5.10am NZ. 

[Disillusioned 389]

1 hour ago, stodge said:

Hope the racing is available on Trackside or you can watch by some other means for all it's for the night owls with the first race 1.30am NZ and the final race 5.10am NZ. 

Ditto, Stodge ... and I'll be up anyways watching the games from Euro 2020-erm-21!

I expect to be walking the streets zombie-like for the next month with all the early morning starts...

The Kings Stand is my fave Royal Ascot race - a wonderful German horse called Equiano won it two years in three a wee while back, both times at l-o-n-g odds!

[Kingshill 233]

Anyone know if Trackside covering Royal Ascot early in the morning? (NZ Time)

[Disillusioned 389]

46 minutes ago, Kingshill said:

Anyone know if Trackside covering Royal Ascot early in the morning? (NZ Time)

Just looked on their Calendar, Kingshill:

This is from Tuesday a.m. (Monday arvo in England: Queen Anne Stakes, Kings Stand Stakes and Prince Of Wales Stakes Day):

https://new.tab.co.nz/tv-schedule/2021-06-15

2am to 5.30am would enable every major race on the day's card to be covered (and I assume it is a pattern repeated for the rest of the week).

That was the pattern they operated under last year etc with the only catch being that betting tended to close way way before 5am. Even for Fixed Odds. Would pay to check hours, heh, or bet early...

 

 

[Red Rum 1,833]

Anything Alan King lines up in handicap over 2000 plus , normally great each way  value and go very well  , King jumps trainer in the main knows the time of day at the festivals , ones off a hurding campaign nice and fit . Each way they give  a decent run for money . He has Raymond Tusk going well off the stable switch so I am keeping my eye out for a bit of value . 2nd the other day to  real up and coming stayer from Haggas yard who is entered at York on Saturday. 

[mckenzie 607]

If you have Spark Sport they are promoting their coverage of it on the app.. will be interesting to see how it compares to Trackside.

[stodge 1,940]

Five day entries through today for Wednesday next week.

The Group 1 feature is the Prince of Wales over 2000m which could see LORD NORTH take on LOVE with ARMORY, ADDEYBB and AUDARYA also entered. LORD NORTH is 5/4 favourite.

Three Group 2 races - the Queen Mary, the Queen's Vase and the Duke of Cambridge.

[stodge 1,940]

Thursday's five day entries are with us.

The feature is the 4000m Gold Cup - the centrepiece of the meeting in terms of tradition though it's not the best race of the meeting these days. 15 have been entered and three time winner STRADIVARIUS is 10/11 to win yet again but the 4-y-o SUBJECTIVIST is a serious threat. He won the Royal Oak last autumn and followed up impressively in the Dubai Gold Cup. Aidan O'Brien has entered last year's English and Irish Derby winners in SERPENTINE and SANTIAGO.

The Norfolk and the Ribblesdale are the supporting Group 2 races.

[stodge 1,940]

Five day entries are through for next Friday.

Two Group 1 races - the Commonwealth Cup and the Coronation Stakes.

The Commonwealth Cup has 24 entries and the UK bookies go 5/1 the field which tells you all you need to know. Favourite is the Wesley Ward-trained CAMPANELLE who won the Queen Mary and the Morny last year and ended up fourth in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf where she patently didn't stay the 1600m. The possibility of quick ground does raise a slight eyebrow and the second favourite is SUESA, a French filly who has won two Group 3 races well this season.

15 stand in the Coronation Stakes for the 3-y-o fillies over 1600m. The usual suspects have been entered including English 1000 Guineas inner and Pouliches runner up MOTHER EARTH but sh faces the top juveniles PRETTY GORGEOUS and SHALE while ALCOHOL FREE might find the round 1600m more palatable than the straight mile at Newmarket. Irish 1000 Guineas winner EMPRESS JOSEPHINE is also entered but the ground will be very different.

[Red Rum 1,833]

William Haggas 8 to 1 at William Hill to be top trainer . Strong looking team in , Ilaraab entered in Hardwicke might be alright . Could be a Melb  Cup horse . Lightly raced,  been given time and already 111 . Looking at the state of the Brisbane Cup yesterday that horse would earn a million buck plus here easy .

[stodge 1,940]

5 hours ago, Red Rum said:

William Haggas 8 to 1 at William Hill to be top trainer . Strong looking team in , Ilaraab entered in Hardwicke might be alright . Could be a Melb  Cup horse . Lightly raced,  been given time and already 111 . Looking at the state of the Brisbane Cup yesterday that horse would earn a million buck plus here easy .

It's more complicated this year with extra races and all of those handicaps and very trappy handicaps as well.

It's diluted the importance of the 2-y-o races - Wesley Ward has sent over his strongest raiding party for some years - and while Ballydoyle will be big players in the conditions races, they don't normally play in the handicaps. Well, to be fair, Aidan doesn't but Joseph does.

The performance put up by ILARAAB at York was arguably the strongest high-level handicap run of the year so far. The Jorvik Handicap is a strong Class 2 and is a "win it and you're in it" race for the Ebor. As you know, the Ebor is one of the season's top handicaps and probably the nearest thing we have to the big race at Flemington. 111 would be an interesting mark for that but if he wins the Hardwicke they'll be thinking more about races like the King George and perhaps even a little race in Paris come early October.

I can understand why they want to see how high they can fly with him because York only told them he's Group class but that covers a multitude of sins.

[swampfox 94]

thursday ladies day is not to be missed.recall going there with years ago with a couple of mates by train.walked on course half an hour before 1st race and bus loads of ladies with fancy hats and bottles of champers were being unloaded.said to my mates dont know about the punting but shoud be a day to remember.

[John Clydesdale 229]

Royal Ascot is to Berkshire what the VRC meeting is to Melbourne……….great racing

[meomy 971]

If those attending G7 summit currently in the UK are genuinely interested in the return of Healthy economies, they should be attending Ascot and putting the Sport of Kings & Queens, Farmers and families in the limelight in a positive manner to help get the industry back on track...

[stodge 1,940]

The five day declarations are through for Saturday.

The Diamond Jubilee looks wide open with 19 entries - the Duke of York winner STARMAN is 11/4 favourite. The main supporting race is the Group 2 Hardwicke over 2400m for the older horses and 35 have been entered though a number of those have other entries earlier in the week. 

[stodge 1,940]

The 48 hour final declarations are available for the opening day at Ascot.

Queen Anne Stakes:

The traditional curtain raiser - 11 go to post with PALACE PIER 2/5 following his romp in the Lockinge. He dominates the older milers and his principal opponent looks to be Breeders Cup Mile winner ORDER OF AUSTRALIA who was good round the sharp Keeneland track but was found out in Hong Kong. LOPE Y FERNANDEZ is always a threat but is well held on Lockinge form and while both LORD GLITTERS and ACCIDENTAL AGENT are past winners, that was a long time ago. It's unimaginative to support a 2/5 shot but PALACE PIER will be for many the banker of the whole meeting.

King's Stand Stakes:

One of the two 1000m Group 1 races in Britain (the Nunthorpe at York being the other). It sees the return of BATTAASH who hasn't been seen since winning last year's Nunthorpe. He wasn't wholly convincing there and has had problems since so is he vulnerable first time up? If he is, the 4-y-o filly WINTER POWER could be the one to take advantage. She was impressive at York and the second that day went in at Sandown yesterday. She was good in the Cornwallis last year but flopped in the Flying Childers which just raises a slight question. The fact is she gets 10 lbs from the favourite and that's a big concession.

OXTED would surely be better at 1200m while EXTRAVAGANT KID has had the unkindest cut of all since winning the Al Quoz Sprint at Meydan. LIBERTY BEACH was a close third in the Abbaye but my worry would be quick ground. QUE AMORO got close to BATTAASH in the Nunthorpe but was dismal in the Flying Five while the American MAVEN has no form in graded races in North America. 

I keep coming back to WINTER POWER as a viable candidate to dethrone BATTAASH.

St James's Palace Stakes:

An unusually large field of 13 for this 3-y-o mile championship race but this is over the Round or Old Mile so it's a stiff uphill run to the bend and another climb to the line. As you might expect, it's a race to bring together the classic form lines from Newmarket, Longchamp and the Curragh but sometimes one improves past the Guineas types to become top 3-y-o miler as PALACE PIER did last year.

POETIC FLARE won at Newmarket and was a close second to MAC SWINEY at The Curragh. He's beaten LUCKY VEGA twice and I'm not convinced this track and the way the race will evolve will suit the Jessica Harrington runner but LUCKY VEGA could upset the classic form. CHINDIT was fifth at Newmarket, LA BARROSSA (who I think has a real chance) was sixth and the likes of THUNDER MOON, BATTLEGROUND (choice of Ryan Moore) and WEMBLEY all behind and of course any one of those could re-discover their top juvenile form.

Into the mix comes the unbeaten MOSTAHADAF who takes the route Gosden took with KING OF COMEDY. He beat HIGHLAND AVENUE in the Heron at Sandown and could be the one who improves past the classic form but I'm not convinced. 

POETIC FLARE is my idea of the winner if recent exertions haven't left a mark while LA BARROSSA looks an each way bet at 20s.

The supporting Group 2 is the Coventry for the juveniles over 1200m. It's usually dominated by the colts but Wesley Ward has the filly KAUFYMAKER who won over 900m on the Dirt on debut by six and a half lengths, She could jump and burn these off but 1200m is a long way for these types at this stage. The complication is most of the decent juvenile form has been on slow turf and this will be fast summer ground. EBRO RIVER won the National at Sandown last time and has a huge chance if the ground isn't an issue but I much prefer DHABAB from the Gosden yard who won on quick ground at Leicester on debut and shaped like a decent one.

Of the other races, we have the Listed Wolferton over 2000m for the older horses. PATRICK SARSFIELD from the Joseph O'Brien yard is favourite. We also have two handicaps, the Ascot Stakes over 4000m for the stayers and for the Copper House over 2800m, also for the older horses - the latter is a kind of Ascot Ebor trial. 

[swampfox 94]

20 hours ago, swampfox said:

 

 

[stodge 1,940]

Final declarations are through for Wednesday's racing:

Prince of Wales's Stakes:

The race of the week (I think). Last year's champion 3-y-o LOVE makes her long awaited return. - she was imperious in winning the 1000 Guineas, Oaks and Yorkshire Oaks. She didn't run in the Arc and Aidan O'Brien was adamant the very heavy ground wouldn't have suited. I'm not worried about her first time up but this is her first time against the colts and geldings. If she's a true champion, she'll win this and if she does she could very well be on her way to Paris in October.

LORD NORTH won on Dubai World Cup night. Last year, he thrashed ADDEYBB in this but was well held at York and flopped on the heavy ground in the Champion Stakes. He's a very good horse but is he good enough for this?

ARMORY was third in the Irish Champion and of course was runner up in the Cox Plate. He won well at Chester but this is the big league and to me he has it to prove. 

LOVE's biggest threat could be another 4-y-o filly in AUDARYA who improved strongly through last year. Having been one of the biggest certainties of the year when winning a Newcastle handicap off 99, she won the Jean Romanet at Deauville before running a close third to TARNAWA in the Opera. As we know, TARNAWA went on to win the Breeders Cup Turf but at the same meeting AUDARYA won the Filly & Mare Turf. 2000m on quick ground looks ideal and at 12/1 she's worth a few quid on the nose,

The other three look out of their depth but when the lowest rated horse is a multiple Group 1 winner running off 111 you know you're at the top of the ladder.

Wednesday has a strong supporting card with three Group 2 races.

The Queen Mary is for the speedball juvenile fillies over 1000m and not for the first time Wesley Ward has a strong contender in TWILIGHT GLEAMING who hacked up in a 1000m maiden at Belmont on fast turf. The idea of course is she jumps and runs and that's worked pretty well before. Her main opponent looks to be fellow American ARTOS who has Frankie Dettori doing the steering. She has obvious claims but the balance of her form suggests a little further might be better.

The Queen's Vase over 2800m is effectively Ascot's Leger though a long time before the real thing. KEMARI won by six lengths over 2150m at Yarmouth and could well be too good - Aidan O'Brien saddles favourite WORDSWORTH who was just beaten over 2600m las time suggesting the trip won't be an issue. 

John Gosden saddles STOEWLL who was the subject of a highly controversial debut ride at Lingfield when given the tenderest of rides to follow home a stable companion. He won well on his second run and could be much better and at 10s looks worth a saver. With horses like RULING and ARTURO TOSCANINI also in the mix, this looks a really interesting race.

13 go in the Duke of Cambridge for the older fillies and mares over 1600m. LADY BOWTHORPE has clearly improved over the winter and after beating QUEEN POWER in the Dahlia ran a fine second to PALACE PIER in the Lockinge. I always like solid Group 1 form in a Group 2 and she's a worthy favourite. CHAMPERS ELYSSES would have a big chance on her form last year but her efforts this year have been moderate and she has some questions to answer. The interesting one back on quick ground is VALERIA MESSALINA and at 16/1 she may be worth a saver.

The Windsor Castle is a Listed race for juveniles over 1000m and once again Wesley Ward looks to have the key here in RUTHIN, one of three fillies up against twenty two colts. RUTHIN beat ARTOS (see above) six lengths on debut so you can see if TWILIGHT GLEAMING wins the Queen Mary, RUTHIN's price will collapse.

A maximum field of 30 goes in the Hunt Cup, a handicap over 1600m - MAGICAL MORNING representing Dettori and Gosden would be my selection if someone slipped me NZ$ 20.  Finally, 18 go in the Kensington Palace handicap for the older fillies over the round mile. 5/1 the field tells you all you need to know. WALIYAK is no more than a suggestion at 14s.

[Disillusioned 389]

2 hours ago, stodge said:

Prince of Wales's Stakes:

The race of the week (I think). Lle. 5/1 the field tells you all you need to know. WALIYAK is no more than a suggestion at 14s.

Thanks for the 'colour', Stodge!

The PoW is - along with the King's Stand - my fave race of Ascot Week.

My first-ver visit to the track - way way back in '85 - saw just 4 horses go round in the PoW.

Two v. good horses in Pebbles and Commanche Run were the hotpots.

'My' Bob Back, a despised 40-to-1 second-to-rank-outsider, beat them both, heh.

From Wikipedia:

Bob Back was one of four horses to contest the Prince of Wales's Stakes at Royal Ascot on 18 June. The race was widely regarded as a match between the classic winners Pebbles and Commanche Run with Bob Back starting a 33/1 outsider. [I got forties!] The only other runner was Costly Lesson, who started at 66/1. Bruce Raymond restrained the colt at the back of the field as Commanche Run set the pace before moving up on the outside in the straight. He took the lead approaching the final furlong and recorded an upset victory, beating Pebbles and Commanche Run by one and a half lengths and a short head. Excuses were given for the beaten horses: Pebbles was reported to be in season whilst Commanche Run's connections claimed that he was unsuited by the muddling pace.^[6]

 

If Pogo over in Oz is reading, your namesake nag is an 80/1 'chance' in the opening race tonight, the Grp One Queen Anne Stakes

[Ohokaman 5,825]

Anyone having a bet needs to study this little lot…..

https://www.racing.com/news/2021-06-15/news-international-royal-ascot-2021-day-one-preview

 

 

 

[Red Rum 1,833]

Few each way in handicaps for me tonight .

R 5 , Postileo  , lightly raced  , finishes off strongly in races over 2 miles plus , this trip should suit him . Gets outpaced at points in races but got plenty of time to get a roll on tonight up that straight  . Around the 16s mark so that's decent each way value .

Will have a bit each way on  Alan Kings Cour DE Lion  , ran a beauty in Chester Cup . Loves the trip .Around 12s mark 

Will follow King in last with On To Victory each way , he has bit form on decent surface , King knows the time of day so again 12s good enough for me .

 

[Red Rum 1,833]

5 hours ago, Disillusioned said:

Thanks for the 'colour', Stodge!

The PoW is - along with the King's Stand - my fave race of Ascot Week.

My first-ver visit to the track - way way back in '85 - saw just 4 horses go round in the PoW.

Two v. good horses in Pebbles and Commanche Run were the hotpots.

'My' Bob Back, a despised 40-to-1 second-to-rank-outsider, beat them both, heh.

From Wikipedia:

Bob Back was one of four horses to contest the Prince of Wales's Stakes at Royal Ascot on 18 June. The race was widely regarded as a match between the classic winners Pebbles and Commanche Run with Bob Back starting a 33/1 outsider. [I got forties!] The only other runner was Costly Lesson, who started at 66/1. Bruce Raymond restrained the colt at the back of the field as Commanche Run set the pace before moving up on the outside in the straight. He took the lead approaching the final furlong and recorded an upset victory, beating Pebbles and Commanche Run by one and a half lengths and a short head. Excuses were given for the beaten horses: Pebbles was reported to be in season whilst Commanche Run's connections claimed that he was unsuited by the muddling pace.^[6]

 

If Pogo over in Oz is reading, your namesake nag is an 80/1 'chance' in the opening race tonight, the Grp One Queen Anne Stakes

Commanche Run a good Leger winner , Lester Piggott won an Irish Champion on him  at the old Pheonix Park track, Track was shaped like a hairpin. He had a massive battle with Baynoun in the Leger , sired some good jumpers over the years . 

[stodge 1,940]

Plenty to chew over from this afternoon's action but we have to keep looking forward.

Thursday's final declarations are through - just to caution there are thunderstorms forecast from Wednesday night through Thursday so ground conditions could change significantly especially if the course catches a storm.

Gold Cup:

It used to be the big race of the week but it's not the best race any more nor even the most significant in bloodstock terms and oddly enough more for the jumpers than the flat horses.

13 will go over the 4000m which remains a real test. The winner for the last three years, STRADIVARIUS, bids to join Yeats as the second four time winner of this race. He won last year in a hack canter despite the ground but the autumn campaign wasn't so good with a disappointing run in the Arc followed by a real flop in the stayers on Champions Day.

He came back with a win in the Sagaro last month and there won't be a dry eye in the house if he can do it again.

STRADIVARIUS first won the Gold Cup as a 4-y-o in 2018 and a new generation of young pretenders look to dethrone the old champion. SUBJECTIVIST was a revelation improving with distance - he couldn't cope with the English Leger but won the Royal Oak and this spring went over to Dubai and won the 3200m Gold Cup impressively. His trainer Mark Johnston has tried to vanquish STRADIVARIUS before and bravely through his horses have run they've always come up short. SUBJECTIVIST looks a more confirmed stayer than Dee Ex Bee was but he'll need another step forward to take down STRADIVARIUS.

Aidan O'Brien runs two Derby winners in a Gold Cup and it's wonderful to see both SERPENTINE and SANTIAGO still in training. The former fluked the Epsom Derby and his form since hasn't lived up to that while SANTIAGO took on STRADIVARIUS at Goodwood as a 3-y-o (so getting the weight) and was held in third. True, he finished in front of SUBJECTIVIST in the English Leger and showed a hint of a return to form last time at York. I've always wanted to see SANTIAGO over this trip but Ryan Moore prefers SERPENTINE.

If we're talking winners of great races, it's worth mentioning we have a Melbourne Cup winner in the field - TWILIGHT PAYMENT is 28/1, which perhaps shows the real divergence between the top European and Australian stayers. The early season runs have been okay and for those looking for a Flemington follow-up, you'll be looking to see TWILIGHT PAYMENT finish close to the pace.

TRUESHAN won the Stayers on Champions Day at Ascot last autumn but his defeat by JAPAN in the Ormonde suggests he has something to find. SPANISH MISSION beat SANTIAGO at York last time but he's been behind SUBJECTIVIST and TRUESHAN and for all he won the Doncaster Cup last year that wasn't a strong renewal.

I think we'll see better from both TWILIGHT PAYMENT and SANTIAGO and they are for me the each way options but STRADIVARIUS will have been prepared to the minute for this and I think we'll get another Dettori masterclass.

Another set of strong supporting races starting with the Group 2 Norfolk over 1000m for the juvenile colts. Wesley Ward sets us a bit of a poser by running the unbeaten colts LUCCI and NAKATONI - the former looks the choice on his smooth Belmont win on the grass. CADOMOSTO was a rare juvenile debut winner for Aidan O'Brien though that was on the Polytrack at Dundalk in April and I much prefer the Clive Cox runner INSTINCTIVE MOVE who impressed me at Bath on debut and I've had a play at 12s.

The Ribblesdale over 2400m for the 3-y-o fillies is known as the Ascot Oaks and often sees those who ran at Epsom re-match. No SNOWFALL of course but third placed DIVINELY represents Ballydoyle. NOON STAR was a late scratching at Epsom but the Musidora second to SNOWFALL now looks very solid form. The interesting runner is ESCHAADA who has won her two starts so far including a Listed at Newbury last time and is clearly on the upgrade.

DUBAI FOUNTAIN won the Cheshire Oaks well but flopped at Epsom and this is very much a recovery mission.

The Hampton Court over 2000m for the 3-y-o is one of those races (like the Wolferton) which signposts winners for races later in the season. MOHAAFETH was fourth favourite for the Derby before being withdrawn on the day of the race because of the easier ground. I imagine if the ground softens he'll be scratched but if it stays fast he has a huge chance on the basis of his highly impressive win in the Newmarket Stakes. I fancied ONE RULER for the Derby but he patently didn't stay and over this shorter trip has claims while ROMAN EMPIRE was fourth in the Dante and has a little to find.

More chewy handicaps end the card - arguably the hardest of the week is the Britannia in which 30 3-y-o run over the straight 1600m and it's 9/1 the field currently. MITHRAS is the obvious starting point but I think QAADER has a chance at 20s. 22 go in the King George V over 2400m for the 3-y-o - a poor man's King Edward VII? Well, perhaps though SIR LAMORAK went into every notebook following his strong win at Leopardstown in April but NAGANO and FIRST LIGHT are worthy opponents from the home team. Finally, just 29 go in the Buckingham Palace over 1400m for the 3-y-o. They go 8/1 the field and I genuinely have no idea - ALDAARY looks the place to start. 

 

[Huey 2,037]

LOVE performance quite simply outstanding, that is some mare!

[stodge 1,940]

I'm going to LOVE talking about this afternoon's action when the time comes.

However, for now, I'm still looking forward, this time to Friday.

Commonwealth Cup:

The newest Group 1 on the Ascot block but in its short life  it has rapidly established itself as a serious race. For the 3-y-o over 1200m, 21 have been declared and with the UK bookies going 9/2 the field it's a fiercely competitive heat.

The top two in the market are however both raiders and so much will depend on what the weather does in the next 36 hours. Showers and storms are forecast tonight with a quieter day tomorrow and more bad weather on Friday.  

To be fair, though, all ground seems to come alike to CAMPANELLE who has won on both firm American and soft French turf. She won the Queen Mary and the Morny last year and it's easy to argue the 1600m of the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf was too far. 

SUESA looks her main danger - she's a French raider who is unbeaten in four runs, all at the beautiful Chantilly racecourse. Her two wins this year have been in Group 3 company and she's looked very good on both occasions. We know she goes on good and slower ground so some rain would help. Whether she can lay up early with CAMPANELLE is debatable but she'll be finishing strongly.

SUPREMACY is clear top rated and ended his juvenile campaign beating LUCKY VEGA in the Middle Park. He was sent off odds on for his seasonal bow over this course and distance and flopped trailing home last. Clive Cox has put blinkers on and if he comes back to his juvenile best he obviously goes very close but you have to forgive the last run.

DRAGON SYMBOL won four on the bounce before just failing in the Cecil Frail on Heavy ground at Haydock last time and the likes of FIVETHOUSANDANDONE and THE LIR JET have claims on their best form. With such huge uncertainty on the ground, I've not got involved yet.

Coronation Stakes:

I love this race - you usually get the best 3-y-o fillies here and this year is no exception (well, the Pouliches winner isn't here). MOTHER EARTH won at Newmarket and although beaten in the mud in Paris ran creditably and as we've seen already this week, backing up from Paris (even if via The Curragh) is perfectly possible. 

EMPRESS JOSEPHINE was a surprise winner of the Irish 1000 Guineas and the fact Ryan Moore is on MOTHER EARTH is interesting. The Irish 1000 Guineas was a bit of a bunch finish - PRETTY GORGEOUS was seventh but beatan only three and a half lengths and I think she'll be a lot closer. PRIMO BACIO looked very good at York but this is a step up while I didn't think ALCOHOL FREE got home at Newmarket - to be fair, she wasn't beaten far and the round 1600m might help her conserve that bit of stamina.

We may not have the Pouliches winner but we have the German 1000 Guineas winner in NOVEMBA and she won by seven and a half lengths. It's always hard to know with German form but the suspicion here is it's not what it was a few years back. The top German breeding seems to be all about stamina rather than speed and German horses usually compete better at 2400m and further.

If the ground were to stay quick, SHALE looks overpriced at 20/1 but I think we have, like the colts, to follow the established form and go with MOTHER EARTH.

Other Races:

The King Edward VII over 2400m is a Group 2 and often called "the Ascot Derby" and, like tomorrow's Ribblesdale, it's often contested by those who failed at Epsom as a recovery mission. This year, however, only one of the eight ran at Epsom and that was GEAR UP who was beaten a long way. Favourite is the Sandown Classic Trial winner ALENQUER who beat ADAYAR that day and we all know where the latter went. A literal read of that form and ALENQUER is past the post and 2/1 looks a steal. The problem is YIBIR was third and has done the form no favours since.

THE MEDITERRANEAN was a late scratching at Epsom but was beaten in the Nijinsky at Leopardstown and then you have the once-raced GLOUCESTERSHIRE for Martyn Meade and various Antipodean interests. They've booked Oisin Murphy and 16/1 looks an each way play as long as all eight stand.

15 go in the Group 3 Albany for the juvenile fillies over 1200m. All have won at least once but that doesn't help much - FLOTUS won well on the soft at Goodwood but I much prefer CACHET who impressed on debut at Newmarket and represents new training star George Boughey. HELLO YOU was a wide margin winner on debut on the Tapeta at Wolverhampton and also could be anything. I suspect this may be a strong renewal.

The last three races are all handicaps - the Sandringham for the 3-y-o fillies over 1600m is another race vying for most impossible of the week. They go 11/1 the field which you don't often see up here - BELIEF and at a big price URBAN VIOLET are my two against the field. The Duke of Edinburgh is for the older horses over 2400m. 6/1 the field here and joint favourites are AADDEEY who has been kicked up 13 lbs for a hugely impressive Newmarket win and QUICKTHORN  who has also gone up 13 lbs for an equally impressive Haydock win.

Finally, the Palace of Holyroodhouse is one of the new races instigated last year - it's a 1000m handicap for the 3-y-o. Some of these are maiden winners going handicapping such as EQUALITY and BOOMSHALAA and I quite like SIGNIFICANTLY who was no match for DRAGON SYMBOL at Hamilton but the latter is a Commonwealth Cup fancy.