RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
Palliser

Trackside

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Can we all be realistic here, the TAB talks about increased revenue and distributions.  The NZTR talk about improved balance sheet etc and over $2M saved from not paying out to 14th.  BUT I HAVE SEEN NO IMPROVEMENTS IN RETURNS FOR THOSE RACING HORSES!!!  Promises are hard to eat.

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2 hours ago, JJ Flash said:

Dont you mean distributions. Thats what everyone wants  so the respective codes can either use it operationally  or increase stakes or a combo of both?

Any chance of a reply to this question i posed to you earlier.?

Surely i don' have to repeat myself.

I know you congratulate anything and everything these guys do and lets face it thats your prerogative.

I'm not going to clap for an increase in distributions that could have been achieved by any sensible management if they'd made the changes the industry has been screaming for for 20+ years. i.e. cost cutting in particular. 

$5m increase in distributions and no trackside radio - LMAO!

 

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3 hours ago, shaneMcAlister said:

Can we all be realistic here, the TAB talks about increased revenue and distributions.  The NZTR talk about improved balance sheet etc and over $2M saved from not paying out to 14th.  BUT I HAVE SEEN NO IMPROVEMENTS IN RETURNS FOR THOSE RACING HORSES!!!  Promises are hard to eat.

Shane ,as a committee/board member of a 'big' club you are in a strong position to force change.......unlike us keyboard warriors and enthusiastic amateur participants.

Its better being on the inside pissing out than on the outside pissing in !

Your club is doing something ,if it goes ahead with the proposed amalgamation with Ellerslie. But that will take a little time to play out with the members meetings , signoffs ,land sales etc before the warchest is established so extra funds can be earned to improve stakes significantly and improve and maintain infrastructure etc as per the plan/proposal.Will be years !

Even from my padded cell here I can see Budgets for this season are allocated and spoken for/spent .

Yes, following lockdown and the uncertainty that presented ,Budgets were very conservative and less than last year and increases over budget have been lauded in reporting ,but the results in improved Cash flow have been up on last year which has been an OK start as the Industry works its way back from 'insolvency'....unable to pay bills .

Can't look back but bad decisions going back some 50 years have contributed to that ,particularly spending too much on Stakes and the TAB ,with pressure from Codes paying out more than they were earning. Plus TAB profits though edging up most years were hamstrung by reckless spending ,especially on salaries etc.

So the improved results of TAB this year are wisely resulting in trying to rebuild some Equity in the Balance sheets .....theirs and the codes.

Unsure how you  , as an influencer,can expect a sudden increase in stakes......won't happen!

You note that $ being saved by not paying out to 14th......the odd extra race is being added , so these $ being recycled to owners.

But I note the number of races ,per meeting creeping down ...often 8 ,sometimes 7. THINGS ARE STILL DESPERATE.

THe Industry really was insolvent......the clubs need to do more to help the returns to owners.......cant sit there with cap in hand.

Do something Shane !!!!!

Years ago your club led the way with a $30,000 day ......great concept !

Where did the extra funds come from ........Sponsorship , club reserves etc I presume.....selling more chips and hot dogs , increasing members numbers and subs.

Do something.......CREATE don't CRY !

ps ...Sorry Shane if this telling you how to suck eggs ,but it is a concern when I see the folk meant to be leading the way and holding the purse strings ,joining with the naysayers ,negaholics and doom addicts moaning publicly about things they should be working on and improving !

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1 hour ago, Huey said:

I know you congratulate anything and everything these guys do and lets face it thats your prerogative.

We al know how negative you are and that's your prerogative and you excel at it.

If you inherited a 50 mio system and were broke with ridiculous annual fees to pay  how would you address that issue as it seems you and a few others love to hate everything TAB. but do not offer any current solutions except bring back Trackside radio.

I should add that on another channel you frequent it was suggested that the TAB walk away from the contract. Surely you dont think that's a great idea or do you?

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Hi Tasman (na harm or insult meant with reponse)

I believe the Counties/Auckland merger is a benefit for the whole industry.  It will work.

However trying to operate a land size (rates and insurance $200K plus) as big as Pukekohe Park for 2 Saturdays and 8 midweek meetings is an impossibility.  Premier racedays are not available, we have no Saturday meetings December through March (summer).  

Sponsorship (bar industry participants) at a decent level is a hard sell for what they get.  Bringing a sponsor to rundown venues that need capital spent is not in most sponsors want list.

Until prize money is increased to owners & trainers then this industry will never grow.

Below is a table of a horse that cost $15K as 3yo off gavelhouse in March 19.  Ignore the $15K purchase price.  This horse has won 4 races (2 Saturday permier days and 2 midweekers) and has lost $46K in two weeks.  When a good horse loses nearly $500 a week then then game is fcuked.  Would you want 2 good horses.....

 

1575784571_2021-06-1013_31_41-Book1-Excel.png.e508bfef49ab6446f32d0e9082dcec22.png

 

 

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2 minutes ago, JJ Flash said:

We al know how negative you are and that's your prerogative and you excel at it.

If you inherited a 50 mio system and were broke with rediculous annual fees to pay  how would you address that issue as it seems you and a few others love to hate everything TAB. but do not offer any current solutions except bring back Trackside radio.

Suggestions below:

  • Stop charging $2.50 credit card deposits
  • Stop taking an hour to credit an account with a bank transfer
  • Allow watching of the race you have bet on when you emptied account (Ie deposited $100 and had $100 bet).
  • ADD FORM TO HONG KONG RACING
  • Stop the website or app from hanging (its improving)
  • Maybe look at outsourcing (THIS SHOULD HAVE BEEN DONE BEFORE NEW IMPLEMENTATION) and treat the $100M to date as sunk costs
  • How do some get free deposit top ups and others don't
  • Put correct information up...look at last week where Tegan had no claim next to her ride
  • Stop putting up SH1T overseas south american racing and dogs

card.thumb.jpg.017dc240ac731c5a228711627387a999.jpg

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1 hour ago, JJ Flash said:

We al know how negative you are and that's your prerogative and you excel at it.

If you inherited a 50 mio system and were broke with ridiculous annual fees to pay  how would you address that issue as it seems you and a few others love to hate everything TAB. but do not offer any current solutions except bring back Trackside radio.

I should add that on another channel you frequent it was suggested that the TAB walk away from the contract. Surely you dont think that's a great idea or do you?

Well that's where we differ , I've grown to like the new website despite the controversy surrounding it. 

As for your mantra in calling everyone who disagrees with you negative - LMAO

and no I wouldn't be in agreement with walk away.

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19 hours ago, shaneMcAlister said:

 

Hi Tasman, can I ask how you are non anonymous?  I am guessing Tasman is not your given name.

Thanks, just curious.

Sadly Shane , you do yourself no credit by taking these  words out of context .

They appeared after a conversation with another poster where I asked what his/her interest in the Industry was and got a very evasive answer .

I have often stated how my interest has evolved.....club member ,regular attender , small owner etc or enthusiastic participant.

I think it a reasonable request ....I'm not keen to engage with a  bitter nutter who is entrenched in personal interest particularly strong regional bias or personal vendettas.

You laid your Club involvement out.....for better or worse.

i would think that as a Club committee/officer you would come under a Code of Conduct ........check the RIU aren't hiding behind your bushes !

Now that really should raise your curiosity !🙂

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16 hours ago, Huey said:

As for your mantra in calling everyone who disagrees with you negative

Hardly factual but not surprising from you. Have no issue with robust discussion, i find it improves intelligence/knowledge. yes i'm a positive rather than negative type but it has not held me back in life thusfar.. 

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17 hours ago, shaneMcAlister said:

Maybe look at outsourcing (THIS SHOULD HAVE BEEN DONE BEFORE NEW IMPLEMENTATION) and treat the $100M to date as sunk costs

You cant be serious why relitigate past mistakes.

You outsource and you lose control of your product and content. The other issues you raise at a micro level are small niggly issues, nobodies prefect and I'm sure if you raised them with TAB in a positive light you might get some acceptance and results.JMO

As TM said

Sorry Shane if this telling you how to suck eggs ,but it is a concern when I see the folk meant to be leading the way and holding the purse strings ,joining with the naysayers ,negaholics and doom addicts moaning publicly about things they should be working on and improving !

 

 

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2 hours ago, JJ Flash said:

You cant be serious why relitigate past mistakes.

You outsource and you lose control of your product and content. The other issues you raise at a micro level are small niggly issues, nobodies prefect and I'm sure if you raised them with TAB in a positive light you might get some acceptance and results.JMO

As TM said

Sorry Shane if this telling you how to suck eggs ,but it is a concern when I see the folk meant to be leading the way and holding the purse strings ,joining with the naysayers ,negaholics and doom addicts moaning publicly about things they should be working on and improving !

 

 

Hi JJ. 

What you call niggling issues I have referred them regularly to the TAB but had no response through proper channels.

Family, friends and collegues will tell you I am a very positive person, however slow change and the fast decreasing returns to participants in this game is draining.  

We need to be realistic, the owners returns, jockey ranks, standard of our horse races, NZ trained horses in oz etc continues to decrease.  Change and fast change is needed.

I firmly believe improved prize money filters down quickly, suddenly owners can afford more horses, trainers earn more and can improve working conidtions (incl H&S), jockeys and employees don't have to look overseas for opportunities.  A better class of horse stays and races in NZ.

To improve prize money we need a strong, customer focused, COMPETITIVE, TAB that knows its customers.

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47 minutes ago, shaneMcAlister said:

To improve prize money we need a strong, customer focused, COMPETITIVE, TAB that knows its customers.

And people who want to gamble, thats the difference between Oz and us . They love to gamble, its in their DNA way more than here. 

I have accounts with both NZTAB, Tabcorp and Betfair and i can tell you the local TAB is now a lot more price competitive than is given credit for. I check both prices before placing any bets and my turnover is now 55-45% in favour of NZTAB. 2 years ago it would be lucky to be 90-10%

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21 hours ago, shaneMcAlister said:

Hi Tasman (na harm or insult meant with reponse)

I believe the Counties/Auckland merger is a benefit for the whole industry.  It will work.

However trying to operate a land size (rates and insurance $200K plus) as big as Pukekohe Park for 2 Saturdays and 8 midweek meetings is an impossibility.  Premier racedays are not available, we have no Saturday meetings December through March (summer).  

Sponsorship (bar industry participants) at a decent level is a hard sell for what they get.  Bringing a sponsor to rundown venues that need capital spent is not in most sponsors want list.

Until prize money is increased to owners & trainers then this industry will never grow.

Below is a table of a horse that cost $15K as 3yo off gavelhouse in March 19.  Ignore the $15K purchase price.  This horse has won 4 races (2 Saturday permier days and 2 midweekers) and has lost $46K in two weeks.  When a good horse loses nearly $500 a week then then game is fcuked.  Would you want 2 good horses.....

 

1575784571_2021-06-1013_31_41-Book1-Excel.png.e508bfef49ab6446f32d0e9082dcec22.png

 

 

Hi Shane ,

Thanks for putting these numbers up....yes lost $45 k in 2 years !

Apparently the NZ return to owners is about 20% ,while NSW is about 48%.

ARC quoted that figure recently.

Your example above is approx 43%.

Easy to see why folk looking to sell horses overseas.

NZ owners need to be very resilient....I'm guessing costs will rise again around 1 August ,they usually do.

Further rationalization in industry is necessary IMO ....less courses ,less races.

No magic bullets sadly but ARC /Counties amalgamation is one bright spot IMO.

Hard to see betting  turnover/profitsincreasing much ,one challenge will be to maintain betting with less NZ races .

NZTR are talking that low end stakes got rise last time , now turn for middle range......IMO the $10k races are a disgrace and  in Amalgamation agreements /discussions  this point should be emphasised.

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6 hours ago, JJ Flash said:

Hardly factual but not surprising from you. Have no issue with robust discussion, i find it improves intelligence/knowledge. yes i'm a positive rather than negative type but it has not held me back in life thusfar.. 

Please don't confuse positivity with delusion.

You might need to re-read those Tony Robbins & Brain Tracy books again , I hear readers become a lot more reflective after 20+ readings!

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8 hours ago, JJ Flash said:

I have accounts with both NZTAB, Tabcorp and Betfair and i can tell you the local TAB is now a lot more price competitive than is given credit for. I check both prices before placing any bets and my turnover is now 55-45% in favour of NZTAB. 2 years ago it would be lucky to be 90-10%

Hi JJ Flash

Lets just put this myth to bed that NZ TAB is as price competitive as other bookmakers.....it simply is not.  I have choosen the place market from the first race at three meetings tomorrow, main NZ meeting, main Aus meeting and Randwick.  No cherry picking.  Below is the NZ tab prices, can be more than 10% behind.  10% is MASSIVE for proper punters.

tab.png.dd5dc31beaea899f790dbb78f699b77b.png

 

 

 

 

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8 hours ago, tasman man said:

NZTR are talking that low end stakes got rise last time , now turn for middle range......IMO the $10k races are a disgrace and  in Amalgamation agreements /discussions  this point should be emphasised.

Hi Tasman man

Agree re this, just one point.  A winner of minimum stakes takes gets $5,400 now compared to $6,300 a year ago.  I am battling to see that as a rise 🙂

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4 hours ago, shaneMcAlister said:

Hi Tasman man

Agree re this, just one point.  A winner of minimum stakes takes gets $5,400 now compared to $6,300 a year ago.  I am battling to see that as a rise 🙂

Hi Shane,

You playing with me now.

When NZTR mentioned how the minimum stake rose last time ,they refer to the fact that up to around 2017 the minimum stake was just $7,000.

The winner got $4750 ,then $1400 , $700 , $350 , $175.

As you point out when the 'RISE' came in the winner got $6250 ,$2000, $1000, $500, $250

Then they started paying back to last the $10k became $5400,$1500 ,$700, $400, $200 from 5th to last [ 14 starters budgeted]

So though the first 5 received less........NINE horses received $200 more than previous.

So I assume it OK for NZTR to say that the minimum stake level got an increase last time....about 43%

You correct in saying the first five got a decrease recently.....at the save time the last 9 finishers got an increase !

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On 6/5/2021 at 10:52 PM, Palliser said:

My God it is so boring.. week after week the same old same old, bring in the guy from TAB about betting trends, so and so went from 3.5 at opening trading to 2.9 etc etc etc ... who out of the major market of punters gives a toss. And they need to get rid of the Whale I pick red hotters but still can't get it right Thompson rubbish in the Harness section.

You say trackside is boring,it will be if you watch it too long,tonight I watched a few races from Forbury,even watched a couple from Washdyke today,like lots of us I got to work so cant sit on my arse all day,in some ways the weekday meetings get a better lead up than the weekend with less competition but once Forbury finish I turn it off,simple,it might be twenty four and seven but it's all about balance.

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On 6/24/2021 at 9:30 PM, mikenz said:

You say trackside is boring,it will be if you watch it too long,tonight I watched a few races from Forbury,even watched a couple from Washdyke today,like lots of us I got to work so cant sit on my arse all day,in some ways the weekday meetings get a better lead up than the weekend with less competition but once Forbury finish I turn it off,simple,it might be twenty four and seven but it's all about balance.

Irrelevant..I'm not talking about duration of watching time. I'm talking about quality of content when I watch. Your logic says just switching off instead of expecting a better product 🤔 .. great idea .. not

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The problem is that you're not thinking laterally enough, not are you all addressing the core issues for failure. At the moment the equation is "let's not fix too much because we don't like risk. We don't want to lose what we've currently got". This destroys innovation. It comes back to the old adage of "why would things change when you don't change anything?"

I won't start racing any new horses in NZ unless I'm pre-training them for other country racing. Shane's example (bad racing stakes) is one of the reasons why but the rest of it is just as important. Bad racing surfaces, lack of good jockeys, average facilities, bad racing calendar, bad hospo service, bad media coverage, average historic data, no value in betting ....and it goes on.

Nothing has changed in 25 years. Seen the latest foal crop data?...and to think in 1993 Dave O'Sullivan, Patrick Hogan and I debated whether to include one of the slides we presented to the RIB predicting that the foal crop would reduce to less that 4000 (it was about 7500 at that time). We were worried that we would lose credibility predicting this figure. Just remember, if you don't have foals, you don't have racehorses. At the latest figures if we shut 10 race courses and got rid of their race meetings, we'd still have an average of only 7.4 horses per race. That's catastrophic!!! That's guaranteed to happen within 3 years because the size of the current foal crop proves it happens. Why can't people see this? If races go to these numbers, then betting drops through the floor. It's guaranteed. It can't be debated. It is a lay down misère. For fucks sake....people wake up!!! I see nothing being discussed to address this any where. 

The problem as I see it is that we have no one fighting the right fight...no radical change or risk taking...just the same ol same ol.

Anyone interested in creating a Horseman's Club, which is an independent voice of reason...a lobbying group for want of a better expression? I helped fund this web site back in the day when Dave and Angie were thinking about starting the Race Cafe. The reason I did it was that the industry didn't have a portal. It didn't have a voice. I saw it as being absolutely required. That voice has subsequently been hijacked somewhat over the years by the radicals. Doesn't help that the reason and structure for this site has been metamorphically changed so it has lost its reason for being.

All of the bad things I have listed above....I have answers (I know arrogant). The tricky part is being listened to...

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12 hours ago, mikenz said:

So ok what would make it better?

For gods sake .. you are completely missing the point. There are paid employees there to do that job, anything would be an improvement on what we are subjected to now, I don't have the time or strength to waffle on here about what could be better, but maybe they could do a survey asking the customers, that way they will get a big picture, rather than 3 or 4 opinions from this thread.

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Palliser I have said for years they don't know what their market wants as they never ask them. Marketing 101 how can you deliver if you don't know what they want, like serving a meat lovers pizza to a vegan.

About 10 years ago ago marketing guru came to my local TAB one Saturday morning to do a survey. The poor lass didn't know what a Trifecta or quinella was. I wrote to the TAB and have yet to receive  reply. Within 3 weeks I had 2 betting agency accounts in Oz, haven't bothered locally since

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