Stodge's Occasional Antipodean Musings

[stodge 1,940]

A couple of things have piqued my interest and thought I would bring into this thread.

First, PROBABEEL has been invited to come to Royal Ascot in June for the Queen Anne. Having won the Might & Power and run fifth in the Cox Plate, you'd see why a stiff 1600m at Ascot might be absolutely ideal. To be fair, STATE OF REST (now owned by Teme Valley Racing) is rated 120 so that puts PROBABEEL in the mid-110s over 2000m but the form to this observer suggests a better rating at 1600m.

Second, we've had the entries for the Saudi Cup and MISHRIFF is bidding to win the race for a second time. He sits ninth in the list of all-time stakes winners with £11.15 million in earnings. That makes him the second biggest UK earner behind World Cup winner THUNDER SNOW. The Japanese are well represented given their enormous prize money but top of the tree with £14,391,266 is WINX. However, if MISHRIFF wins in Riyadh at the end of February he'll overtake her.

https://www.racingpost.com/news/international/mishriff-has-saudi-cup-target-to-become-worlds-highest-earning-horse/531665

 

[Nerula 1,402]

That is interesting. Owners the Lindsays of Cambridge Stud would be mulling it over. She has got little to prove here or Oz.

The mare is said to be grown into herself and riders report she feels awesome.

You might want a nibble at the early odds Stodge?

[Tauhei Notts 1,412]

Stodge, what an awful thing the loss of that brilliant SNOWFALL.  This racing game can build you up to great heights, then kneecap you.

[stodge 1,940]

I commented on this in the Northern Hemisphere thread.

She was going to go to ST MARK'S BASILICA for her first covering - a huge blow as she was also the first daughter of Deep Impact to make a big impression in Europe.

[stodge 1,940]

Time to bring this back for the autumn racing in Australia.

The Sydney Cup features any number of ex-European gallopers so let's see how these new arrivals line up on their European form:

CRYSTAL PEGASUS has looked very good in recent starts winning the Mornington Cup last time and while the trip is a slight question so for me is the ground as he flopped on soft ground over here and I'm not sure how Heavy a Heavy 10 really is (not as bad as a heavy 11 I would guess).

SHERAZ was a decent French stayer last spring chasing home SKAZINO in the Group 3 Barbeville at Longchamp. This trip will be no problem and neither will the ground.

SUREFIRE won a big handicap at Ascot last year on decent ground - he never raced on slow turf over here but his run at Rosehill last time was decent and as his dam was by Sadler's Wells it wouldn't surprise me if he loved the wet turf.

CHALK STREAM races for HMQ and moved rapidly through the ratings with three straight handicap wins last summer. In the Listed Noel Murless at Ascot, however, on slower ground, he was thrashed by a horse called Scope. I note he was behind SUNFIRE at Rosehill and I think the former has more potential.

I'd offer SHERAZ and SUNFIRE as the two of the ex-Europeans who I would expect to run well.

[stodge 1,940]

I hope somebody had a few dollars to place on SHERAZ who I thought ran a blinder.

The winner ran in England as a 3-y-o and was a handicapper rated around 80 so he's come on a fair way for the journey to the southern hemisphere. As I say, SHERAZ ran very well in defeat.

CHALK STREAM didn't get home in the ground but was well there until the final 600m.

It was too heavy for SUNFIRE who never ran on slow turf in the UK.

[Ohokaman 5,825]

On 1/19/2022 at 10:52 AM, stodge said:

I commented on this in the Northern Hemisphere thread.

She was going to go to ST MARK'S BASILICA for her first covering - a huge blow as she was also the first daughter of Deep Impact to make a big impression in Europe.

She is going to the Stud sire Almanzor Stodge.

[Ohokaman 5,825]

32 minutes ago, Ohokaman said:

Probabeel is going to the Stud sire Almanzor Stodge.

 

[stodge 1,940]

As the Southern Hemisphere spring beckons so it's the time for me to put up the usual pro-European biased comments on the fantastic races coming up over the next few weeks.

No Europeans in the Might & Power and its' fascinating to see the first four in the Underwood line up against ANAMOE who of course doesn't have the huge weight concession he made such good use of as a 3-y-o.

Is the Might & Power, for all it's a fine race in its own right, a trial for the Cox Plate in a couple of weeks? 

[Houlahan's Dream 535]

11 minutes ago, stodge said:

As the Southern Hemisphere spring beckons so it's the time for me to put up the usual pro-European biased comments on the fantastic races coming up over the next few weeks.

No Europeans in the Might & Power and its' fascinating to see the first four in the Underwood line up against ANAMOE who of course doesn't have the huge weight concession he made such good use of as a 3-y-o.

Is the Might & Power, for all it's a fine race in its own right, a trial for the Cox Plate in a couple of weeks? 

Traditionally it has been yes. Anamoe should be winning this but I have my doubts. I liked the way Mo'unga shouldered into the clear in the Underwood and put himself into the race and although he may not have the class of a Zaaki or Anamoe, often these 10f WFA races are streetfights, and that is surely him. Going to be a great sight. 

[stodge 1,940]

32 minutes ago, Houlahan's Dream said:

Traditionally it has been yes. Anamoe should be winning this but I have my doubts. I liked the way Mo'unga shouldered into the clear in the Underwood and put himself into the race and although he may not have the class of a Zaaki or Anamoe, often these 10f WFA races are streetfights, and that is surely him. Going to be a great sight. 

The Racing Post has tipped up MO'UNGA and he certainly toughed it out in the Underwood to nick second. I thought THUNDERSTRUCK ran a huge race - might have helped if he hadn't been so far back.

[stodge 1,940]

Just watched the Might & Power - I thought at one point it was going to be a re-hash of the Underwood and it's interesting the first three home were in the first four throughout.

Nothing came from off a sedate gallop and Zahra had I'M THUNDERSTRUCK a lot closer and he ran a blinder but ANAMOE is clearly very good and despite not having the weight advantage of last season just did enough. 

Will they go as slow in the Cox Plate or will it be a decent gallop?

[We're Doomed 4,855]

With Alligator Blood being the likely pacemaker in these races and 2,000m probably being his limit in this class of race you are unlikely to see him setting a torrid pace.

Also, I think we might actually be lucky enough to have 3 or 4 pretty good horses at the same time which is why one horse isn't dominating completely. They are becoming quite tactical races. I thought it was a great race and the best horses came to the fore.

[scooby3051 10,869]

4 hours ago, stodge said:

Just watched the Might & Power - I thought at one point it was going to be a re-hash of the Underwood and it's interesting the first three home were in the first four throughout.

Nothing came from off a sedate gallop and Zahra had I'M THUNDERSTRUCK a lot closer and he ran a blinder but ANAMOE is clearly very good and despite not having the weight advantage of last season just did enough. 

Will they go as slow in the Cox Plate or will it be a decent gallop?

Sedate gallops thats how most European races are run isn't it LOL.

[stodge 1,940]

8 hours ago, scooby3051 said:

Sedate gallops thats how most European races are run isn't it LOL.

Fair comment.

I've not seen the sectionals and the coverage I saw (sourced I think from Victoria Racing Club) didn't have them. The commentator thought they won't going fast for a Group 1, whatever that means.

French races are often run slow, slow, quick, quick, slow as we say though that's not wholly accurate. As we saw at Longchamp, it can be hard to make ground off the pace.

British races are variable - yes, we can have what we call "tactical" races but many are run at what we call a more "honest" gallop - again, sectional timings are very helpful and it's amazing to watch the riders like Dettori and Moore reel off 13 second furlongs one after another.

The other side is of course American racing where they go hard from the start - over there they consider a 24 second first 400m a dawdle and you need to be going 45 and change (apparently) for a decent first 800m. 

[Ohokaman 5,825]

37 minutes ago, stodge said:

Fair comment.

I've not seen the sectionals and the coverage I saw (sourced I think from Victoria Racing Club) didn't have them. The commentator thought they won't going fast for a Group 1, whatever that means.

French races are often run slow, slow, quick, quick, slow as we say though that's not wholly accurate. As we saw at Longchamp, it can be hard to make ground off the pace.

British races are variable - yes, we can have what we call "tactical" races but many are run at what we call a more "honest" gallop - again, sectional timings are very helpful and it's amazing to watch the riders like Dettori and Moore reel off 13 second furlongs one after another.

The other side is of course American racing where they go hard from the start - over there they consider a 24 second first 400m a dawdle and you need to be going 45 and change (apparently) for a decent first 800m. 

Try this Stodge. Just load videos until you get to Caulfield Race 7…..they have all the sectionals.

https://www.racing.com/videos/race-replays#/

[stodge 1,940]

Looking ahead to the Caulfield Cup, no European-trained runners but plenty of ex-European runners and this was picked up in an interesting opinion piece in the Racing Post this morning with linkages being established between Newmarket and Australian-based trainers such as Annabel Neasham. 

The horses are bred here, born here and may run in the UK as juveniles or 3-y-os before being sold to Australia to continue their careers for better money.

As for Saturdays runners, may be worth seeing if any had soft ground form in the UK if the weather forecasts turn out to be accurate.

[stodge 1,940]

Just a few ex-Europe gallopers in tomorrow's Caulfield Cup field.

KNIGHTS ORDER only raced in the UK as a a 3-y-o back in 2018 but finished last on his only soft-ground run. Neither MAXIMAL nor CRYSTAL PEGASUS ran well on soft ground in their UK campaigns.

GREAT HOUSE raced twice in Ireland in the summer of 2020 but they were on good ground.

NUMERIAN had a long career in Ireland and ran his last race at Leopardstown in the spring of 2021 - he ran okay on heavy ground at Naas in November 2020 over 2400m which was probably far enough for him then.

GOLD TRIP has solid heavy ground form - he was fourth in the Arc behind Sottsass in 2020 on heavy ground and third on soft ground in the 2021 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud. That's decent European form and over 2400m on heavy turf, I'd be on at 8s each way.

[stodge 1,940]

GOLD TRIP ran a blinder but couldn't quite concede 13 lbs to DURSTON, the reserve who got a run when Maximal was scratched.

DURSTON had raced in England as a 3-y-o in 2019. He had run well on soft ground in the UK winning a race at Chester and running third in the Geoffrey Freer at Newbury, six lengths behind one Technician who went on to win both the Chaudenay and the Royal Oak. He ended up 116 so you could probably put DURSTON in the mid 100s.

DURSTON's final run in the UK was eighth in the Duke of Edinburgh Handicap at Royal Ascot in June 2020 - his only run as a 4-y-o up here.

Would I put GOLD TRIP 13 lbs in front of DURSTON on European form? Yes, just about. To be fair, DURSTON's Metropolitan run put him in this with a chance.

Instead of champagne and caviar it was a Full English down the Barking Road but not too bad.

[stodge 1,940]

Just had a quick look at the Cox Plate field. The usual suspects it would seem but I see EL BODEGON is in the field.

He's a decent animal - possibly his best form this season was chasing home VADENI in the Jockey Club at Chantilly albeit beaten five lengths. If VADENI was in the Cox Plate he'd be very strongly fancied.

Since then he has run third in both the Grand Prix de Paris and the Great Voltigeur at York both over 2400m.

I just wonder if he'll be quick enough for 2040m at Moonee Valley (or The Valley as it now seems to be called) on the forecast Good 4 ground. 

He has a European mark of 113 while the older MY OBERON runs off 110 in the Group 2 Mile.

 

[stodge 1,940]

Another tremendous Cox Plate and ANAMOE is clearly very good. 

To be fair, almost a re-run of the Might and Power two weeks ago with I'M THUNDERSTRUCK again running on strongly but missing by half a length rather than a head.

I thought EL BODEGON ran a huge race in third - he got outpaced 600m down but finished very well and clearly relished the softer turf.

He got to within three quarters of a length of the winner but VADENI beat him five lengths in the Jockey Club so we can put VADENI four lengths in front of ANAMOE on the numbers suggesting had ANAMOE turned up in the Eclipse he'd have finished upsides the future Champion Stakes winner BAY BRIDGE.

All conjecture of course.

MY OBERON did it well in the Group 2 Mile suggesting the form lines at that trip between the UK and Australia are about the same.

The performance of the day was FRANCESCO GUARDI in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup. He was a 93-rated handicapper as a 3-y-o over here in the summer of 2021 but a combination (I suspect) of gelding and the training genius of Chris Waller has brought significant improvement. FRANCESCO GUARDI is by Frankel but the dam (by the American stallion Mr Sidney) started her racing life in France where she ran well on soft ground when trained by Criquette Head before being sold to race with Nicholas Clement in the US.

[Memphis3 1,261]

The crucial moment was Nash putting Zahra onto the rails. If I’m Thunderstruck had stayed on the outside it would of won. But aaah that’s racing. 

[stodge 1,940]

I see Flemington is staging its Champions Day meeting on November 5th.

It will be interesting to see how its prize money compares with the Breeders Cup meeting the same day (albeit some hours later). Last year, the Breeders Cup Turf (2400m) had a first prize of £1.5 million while the 2000m Classic on Dirt went for £2.3 million.

We've not long had the UK Champions Day at Ascot which had Group 1 races at 1200m, 1600m and 2000m.

I see the 1200m, 1600m and 2000m races on TAB Champions Day are all going for $3 million (Australian). That converts at current rates to £1.7 million.

The 2000m Champion Stakes over here had a first prize of £737,000 so you can see why British racing is a joke.

On the other hand, Australian and American racing seem comparable in terms of big prize pots.

As comparison, the Sheema Classic in Dubai goes for £2.4 million and the Japan Cup (both races at 2400m) for £2.2 million. 

 

[stodge 1,940]

Thought I'd look back on the weekend and see how the Europeans and ex-Europeans fared in the big Australian races.

At Flemington, the 2020 Derby winner SERPENTINE chased home SUREFIRE in the Lexus Archer Stakes. Putting blinkers on certainly sparked a big improvement after some lacklustre runs since coming to Australia. CRYSTAL PEGASUS was third which was also a better effort than he'd put in recently.

Over at Rosehill, STAR OF INDIA won the Rosehill Gold Cup netting a decent £232,000 for connections. He'd run thirteenth in the Derby back in June and this was his first run since a fourth in a Longchamp Group 3 in September. He's now with Annabel Neasham and this was a pleasing start to his new campaign. In third was BOIS D'ARGENT formerly with Francois Graffard but now with Marco Botti and in fourth ATHABASCAN who raced for Andre Fabre this summer.

 

 

[stodge 1,940]

So to the big one, the Melbourne Cup, the race which stops a coupe of nations and gets a few idiots out of bed at 4am in a third.

We now have the final field and draw and the full 24 will run over the 3200m on ground described as Soft.

Over here, DEAUVILLE LEGEND is 5/2 favourite and while the 8 stall won't be a disadvantage, that price looks incredibly skinny.  I think there are holes in this form - he's never gone beyond 2600m and was all out to beat AL QAREEM (subsequent Chaudenay winner but well beaten in the Royal Oak) in the Group 3 at Newmarket. Back to 2400m and he was second to NEW LONDON (favourite and well held in the Leger) and was only a neck in front of HOO YA MAL (also flopped in the Leger) and he meets him on the same terms.

Yes, he won the Group 2 Voltigeur at York (CROSS COUNTER was beaten in it) and he had Cox Plate third EL BODEGON four lengths back in third so a literal read of that form puts DEAUVILLE LEGEND two or three lengths in front of ANAMOE (if you take the form literally).

I've some doubts about him at the trip and I just think 5/2 absurd.

Second in here is GOLD TRIP who was second in the Caulfield Cup and ninth in the Cox Plate. I think he's got a serious trip - he was fourth in an Arc and third in a Grand Prix de Saint Cloud. The ground will be fine and while he's never run at 3200m, I don't see stamina being an issue.  

I've been a fan of WITHOUT A FIGHT for this race since March and have got on at big prices over here but the 18 stall is a nice kick in the gonads. He was only five lengths behind the winner in the Sheema Classic and he's run consistently up to 2800m this summer and he has soft ground form from earlier in his career. He's my idea of the winner though I'm really frightened of GOLD TRIP.

HOO YA MAL was second in the Derby and in most years that form would be enough to have the horse concerned at the top of the market but HOO YA MAL's Epsom effort has a touch of fluke about it and he was third in the Gordon behind DEAUVILLE LEGEND and his run in the Leger at Doncaster was pretty modest.

I mentioned the 2020 Derby in my previous - EMISSARY was fifteenth in that renewal but he's come a long way based on his Geelong Cup win the other day.

CAMORRA won the Curragh Cup in June over 2800m but was beaten a long way in the Irish Leger and all his form is on much quicker ground.

NUMERIAN raced up to 2000m in Ireland in 2021 and was borderline Listed class while SERPENTINE won the 2020 Derby (if he could reproduce that he'd win the length of the Flemington straight) and his run yesterday in the Lexus Archer was really encouraging.

So, plenty of European and ex-European experience and while it would once again be a pleasure to relieve the Aussies of their cash and send the great prize back to the north, it's far from the strongest raiding party the Northern Hemisphere has ever mustered. That being said, I'm not sure the local field is as strong as it has been. 

My two against the field would be WITHOUT A FIGHT and GOLD TRIP - I think EMISSARY could run well and old SERPENTINE could surprise.