RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
stodge

Stodge's Occasional Antipodean Musings

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I've set this one up to look at European challengers for big races in Australia.

ADDEYBB goes for a repeat in the Ranvet overnight (UK) and with the Rosehill turf on the heavy side, he's got to have a real chance against VERRY ELLEGANT who is being spoken of as an Arc possible. If she can beat ADDEYBB well, she's got every right to come over and take her chance in Paris.

ADDEYBB has already beaten her twice - in the Ranvet and the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes last year. He ended his European campaign with a defeat of the useful SKALLETI at Ascot - the latter had previously beaten Arc winner SOTTSASS and has already started his 2021 campaign with a facile win in the Exbury at Saint-Cloud.

The Ranvet also features SIR DRAGONET who won a Cox Plate on soft ground so perhaps can't be discounted if he's on a going day.

In the Group 3 over 2400m we have the Australian debut of NICKAJACK CAVE, who was trained by Ger Lyons last year and on one occasion at Leopardstown won a Listed race beating a certain TWILIGHT PAYMENT (we all know what happened to him). I have to say blinkers on for the first time I get but I'm less convinced about the heavy turf for this one.

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VERRY ELLEGANT did it really well. I'm not sure the drying ground and the wide draw did ADDEYBB any favours but he was being ridden a long way out though for all that he stuck on really well.

Could she come over for the Arc? She'd be a huge and very welcome addition to the race - I don't know if she would be good enough. We know the best mares can win it but if there's a superstar 3-y-o out there they'll get the weight and it makes them very hard to beat.

Some consolation for trainer William Haggas with FAVORITE MOON winning the Group 3 handicap. He's rated 95 up here which is a handicaper's rating and about 10 lbs below what we would consider Group 3 level so this was a strong performance by an improving type.

Last July he beat SUBJECTIVIST in a class 2 handicap over 2800m at Haydock and the latter has won the Group 2 stayers race at Meydan this afternoon so that's looking a solid piece of form. 

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6 hours ago, stodge said:

VERRY ELLEGANT did it really well. I'm not sure the drying ground and the wide draw did ADDEYBB any favours but he was being ridden a long way out though for all that he stuck on really well.

Could she come over for the Arc? She'd be a huge and very welcome addition to the race - I don't know if she would be good enough. We know the best mares can win it but if there's a superstar 3-y-o out there they'll get the weight and it makes them very hard to beat.

Some consolation for trainer William Haggas with FAVORITE MOON winning the Group 3 handicap. He's rated 95 up here which is a handicaper's rating and about 10 lbs below what we would consider Group 3 level so this was a strong performance by an improving type.

Last July he beat SUBJECTIVIST in a class 2 handicap over 2800m at Haydock and the latter has won the Group 2 stayers race at Meydan this afternoon so that's looking a solid piece of form. 

Great  performance from VE and battling from Addeybb , two wins and a second so far in 3 outting in OZ in top group 1s WFA pretty handy . She's seriously good but if Misriff stays sound she is only at best 2nd in Arc . She goes in the soft so October Paris won't bother her , but he goes in a bog and on the firm and on the dirt . Course record this morning beating the best Japan has got  going widest on the bend too . Gosden is just a genius .

 

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8 hours ago, stodge said:

VERRY ELLEGANT did it really well. I'm not sure the drying ground and the wide draw did ADDEYBB any favours but he was being ridden a long way out though for all that he stuck on really well.

Could she come over for the Arc? She'd be a huge and very welcome addition to the race - I don't know if she would be good enough. We know the best mares can win it but if there's a superstar 3-y-o out there they'll get the weight and it makes them very hard to beat.

Some consolation for trainer William Haggas with FAVORITE MOON winning the Group 3 handicap. He's rated 95 up here which is a handicaper's rating and about 10 lbs below what we would consider Group 3 level so this was a strong performance by an improving type.

Last July he beat SUBJECTIVIST in a class 2 handicap over 2800m at Haydock and the latter has won the Group 2 stayers race at Meydan this afternoon so that's looking a solid piece of form. 

Ladbrokes AU  still have Addeybb at 3s and VE at 3.25 in QE2 , some UK bookies have them 9/4 the pair . It's in the weather for my mind , it comes up heavy I think he will have too much for her but soft or better VE . Avilius was huge yesterday , goes on heavy and at 26s and 7.30 the place  Ladbrokes AU , and Cummings having him in great nick , he looks great each way value ante post for few bucks .

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MELODY BELLE runs in the Tancred at Rosehill on Saturday and I see one or two ex-European gallopers in opposition. Tom Marquand rides TOFFEE TONGUE, winner of a Group 3 at Rosehill three weeks ago. I see SIR DRAGONET is having another run and SOUTHERN FRANCE, another ex-Ballydoyle type, has been entered. The latter got to within three quarters of a length of STRADIVARIUS at York in 2019 and didn't run too badly in the Chipping Norton after nearly a year off

I also see NICKAJACK CAVE is an entry - he was presumably taken out of the Ranvet because of the ground. It was a Soft 7 last Saturday, now a Soft 5 - a further improvement will help this one.

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11 minutes ago, stodge said:

MELODY BELLE runs in the Tancred at Rosehill on Saturday and I see one or two ex-European gallopers in opposition. Tom Marquand rides TOFFEE TONGUE, winner of a Group 3 at Rosehill three weeks ago. I see SIR DRAGONET is having another run and SOUTHERN FRANCE, another ex-Ballydoyle type, has been entered. The latter got to within three quarters of a length of STRADIVARIUS at York in 2019 and didn't run too badly in the Chipping Norton after nearly a year off

I also see NICKAJACK CAVE is an entry - he was presumably taken out of the Ranvet because of the ground. It was a Soft 7 last Saturday, now a Soft 5 - a further improvement will help this one.

Mirage Dancer building into form again like Spring prep . Classy horse each way 10s and 330 looks decent value . His half brother Ironclad unbeaten in OZ , won decent mile race last week at Bendigo . 

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19 hours ago, Red Rum said:

Mirage Dancer building into form again like Spring prep . Classy horse each way 10s and 330 looks decent value . His half brother Ironclad unbeaten in OZ , won decent mile race last week at Bendigo . 

He was fourth last year so the questions are a) is he better than this time last year and b) is the race stronger than last year? 

I think he'd always want better ground - he won the Metropolitan  on a decent surface.  In the UK, he bounced off quick turf at 2400m yet in OZ they run him over shorter and on slower ground.

That's an occupational hazard, I suppose, of spring and autumn campaigns which by definition are more likely to be run on soft ground.

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The Easter Cup at Caulfield tomorrow sees the Australian debut of AMADE.

AMADE raced in France, England and America over staying distances. He's won 6 out of 10 on the all weather and 8 out of 13 on all surfaces. In England, he won over 3200m at Kempton and Chelmsford before running second to WATERSMEET in the 2019 all-weather championship staying race at Lingfield. He then went to America and won the Belmont Gold Cup in June 2019 (a Grade 2 at Belmont Park).

I believe the original plan was a tilt at the Melbourne Cup but that didn't happen and he's been off nearly two years - he's now moved to Australia and is with Phillip Stokes at Pakenham.

 

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The race to frank the form on Amade is his win in the Belmont Invitational Stakes (GP1) to provide an indication of his form when at his best. In second place that day was Arklow, who won the Joe Hirsch (GP1) beating Channel Maker by a neck. Channel Maker has run into Arklow a few times and they have each beaten each other by close margins. Both Arklow and Channel Maker were thrashed by Enable (12 lengths) and Channel Maker was recently put away by Mishriff (8 lengths) in Dubai

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6 hours ago, stodge said:

He was fourth last year so the questions are a) is he better than this time last year and b) is the race stronger than last year? 

I think he'd always want better ground - he won the Metropolitan  on a decent surface.  In the UK, he bounced off quick turf at 2400m yet in OZ they run him over shorter and on slower ground.

That's an occupational hazard, I suppose, of spring and autumn campaigns which by definition are more likely to be run on soft ground.

Not sure he is better but don't think he has regressed much . That Caulfield Cup run off the plane and Metropolitan the two highs . Ground drying by what I've read . The race this year IMHO a lot lighter on quality . He had Angel of Truth behind him last year and an in form Mugatoo . Winner Very Ellegant . 

The Aussie way to kick off over the shorter trips and build up , programs and facilities dictate I think it is . Mirage Dancer not an extreme example of this ,a horse called Double Bluff ex UK ran in Lingfield Derby Trial once , if you scroll through his form . Weird stuff , he runs 2400 to 3200 and is now a hurdler . On all those many  runs he has two thrown in at  1200 and 1000 and surprise surprise runs last in both , so schooling in public really . Seems to be early Autumn horse who's hit a bit of form makes use of fitness and picks up a decent prize and the good ones just looking to run on late building for big ones in ran  Oct and Nov .Some Euro stayers go real well over shorter in OZ , old Hartnell Queens Prize Royal Ascot over 3200 at 3 yo to best miler for a while in OZ. 

 

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1 hour ago, Berri said:

The race to frank the form on Amade is his win in the Belmont Invitational Stakes (GP1) to provide an indication of his form when at his best. In second place that day was Arklow, who won the Joe Hirsch (GP1) beating Channel Maker by a neck. Channel Maker has run into Arklow a few times and they have each beaten each other by close margins. Both Arklow and Channel Maker were thrashed by Enable (12 lengths) and Channel Maker was recently put away by Mishriff (8 lengths) in Dubai

Well, yes, and what price would MISHRIFF be in the Easter Cup at Caulfield? 

The other point is AMADE did his running over 3200m in Europe and America and it's 2000m at Caulfield so you'd think he'd be caught for speed but it will be interesting to see if there is any of the old spark still there.

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30 minutes ago, Red Rum said:

Some Euro stayers go real well over shorter in OZ , old Hartnell Queens Prize Royal Ascot over 3200 at 3 yo to best miler for a while in OZ. 

 

HARTNELL is/was a real legend - mixed it with the very best including WINX but Group winner and stayer up here. Incredibly, he won over 2000m as a 2-y-o - do you have races for 2-y-o over that far in Australia or New Zealand?

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2 hours ago, stodge said:

HARTNELL is/was a real legend - mixed it with the very best including WINX but Group winner and stayer up here. Incredibly, he won over 2000m as a 2-y-o - do you have races for 2-y-o over that far in Australia or New Zealand?

No , not at all nothing like  that here .. 2000 down the straight at HQ , my Dad hates Newmarket , waste of time going he says , better off watching at home  but the pure test of a thoroughbred imho . I love the town .

Had look Hartnells win few years back in the  Zetland I think it's called  as someone said it harms the 2 year olds . Out that race all had long careers incuding one rattling round Sedgefield for years  and the French gr1 over 2000 late on produces good ones too. . 

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7 hours ago, Red Rum said:

No , not at all nothing like  that here .. 2000 down the straight at HQ , my Dad hates Newmarket , waste of time going he says , better off watching at home  but the pure test of a thoroughbred imho . I love the town .

Had look Hartnells win few years back in the  Zetland I think it's called  as someone said it harms the 2 year olds . Out that race all had long careers incuding one rattling round Sedgefield for years  and the French gr1 over 2000 late on produces good ones too. . 

Yes, the Zetland is the most important of the 2-y-o races in the UK over 2000m - the French Group 1 is, I think, the Criterium de Saint-Cloud.

The Zetland isn't a bad race - KEW GARDENS won it, so did CORONET, both recent Group 1 winners. Other future Leger winners in SILVER PATRIARCH and BOB'S RETURN.

Probably the best two in the last 30 years of so were DOUBLE TRIGGER, who went on to be top stayer in the mid 90s and TWICE OVER, who won at 2000m as a 2-y-o and that turned out to be his trip as he won the Eclipse and the Champion Stakes twice.

Last year's winner LONE EAGLE is in both the Dante and the Derby so we'll see...

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12 hours ago, stodge said:

Well, yes, and what price would MISHRIFF be in the Easter Cup at Caulfield? 

The other point is AMADE did his running over 3200m in Europe and America and it's 2000m at Caulfield so you'd think he'd be caught for speed but it will be interesting to see if there is any of the old spark still there.

Having a go each way on OTI's other runner Nights Watch . Regular in these types races and nice light 54.5 kgs for a change . Been up against some nicely weighted in form horses lately who have run up sequences . Two CD wins , hit the winners circle this time last year , change stables, race fit  . Drawn 14 but don't make much difference as been slow away lately so will likely just drop in and hope for gaps .

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On 4/2/2021 at 9:51 AM, Red Rum said:

Having a go each way on OTI's other runner Nights Watch . Regular in these types races and nice light 54.5 kgs for a change . Been up against some nicely weighted in form horses lately who have run up sequences . Two CD wins , hit the winners circle this time last year , change stables, race fit  . Drawn 14 but don't make much difference as been slow away lately so will likely just drop in and hope for gaps .

I've not seen the race - to finish fourth looks a decent effort by AMADE. He's certainly one for the notebook especially over further.

As for the Tancred, NICKAJACK CAVE had a quiet run round - sat last, improved but not a lot of room in the straight, not given the hardest of rides so one for the notebook. Happy to see SIR DRAGONET win so well - he was Derby favourite once and while he's had some disappointing runs over shorter, he was only a length behind the winner at Epsom and this is his trip. I can imagine another tilt at the Melbourne Cup - he wasn't far away last year.

I've just watched something called the Great Eastern Steeple at Oakbank - certainly a popular race judged by the crowd. Apart from the abomination of starting a jumps race from stalls - the obstacles, are they meant to be blue? In truth, they are basically brush hurdles.

Aintree next week is the place to see real steeplechasing.

 

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13 hours ago, stodge said:

I've not seen the race - to finish fourth looks a decent effort by AMADE. He's certainly one for the notebook especially over further.

As for the Tancred, NICKAJACK CAVE had a quiet run round - sat last, improved but not a lot of room in the straight, not given the hardest of rides so one for the notebook. Happy to see SIR DRAGONET win so well - he was Derby favourite once and while he's had some disappointing runs over shorter, he was only a length behind the winner at Epsom and this is his trip. I can imagine another tilt at the Melbourne Cup - he wasn't far away last year.

I've just watched something called the Great Eastern Steeple at Oakbank - certainly a popular race judged by the crowd. Apart from the abomination of starting a jumps race from stalls - the obstacles, are they meant to be blue? In truth, they are basically brush hurdles.

Aintree next week is the place to see real steeplechasing.

 

Commentator said Amade looked fat as they went in gate so top run . 

My two for Saturday I think beat two home in total. 

The QE2 in few weeks shaping up to be a ripper , keep an eye on the rain  radar .

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Yes, a stellar card at Randwick (please, not the Royal crap !!) tomorrow morning (UK).

The Sydney Cup sees the rematch between FAVORITE MOON from the Haggas yard and REALM OF FLOWERS, who he beat in the XXXX NE Manion Cup three weeks ago. The second has 2lbs pull for a neck so you'd think is entitled to reverse but it doesn't always work like that. SHE'S IDEEL ran a blinder in the Tancred but the extra 800m is an unknown.

The Queen Elizabeth II features the Tancred winner SIR DRAGONET but he's up against two very smart types in ADDEYBB and VERRY ELLEGANT. The latter prevailed in the Ranvet last time but they've put blinkers on ADDEYBB and as long as the ground doesn't quicken too much I fancy his chances against the mare but it looks set to be a fascinating clash.

 

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On 4/4/2021 at 3:23 AM, stodge said:

I've not seen the race - to finish fourth looks a decent effort by AMADE. He's certainly one for the notebook especially over further.

As for the Tancred, NICKAJACK CAVE had a quiet run round - sat last, improved but not a lot of room in the straight, not given the hardest of rides so one for the notebook. Happy to see SIR DRAGONET win so well - he was Derby favourite once and while he's had some disappointing runs over shorter, he was only a length behind the winner at Epsom and this is his trip. I can imagine another tilt at the Melbourne Cup - he wasn't far away last year.

I've just watched something called the Great Eastern Steeple at Oakbank - certainly a popular race judged by the crowd. Apart from the abomination of starting a jumps race from stalls - the obstacles, are they meant to be blue? In truth, they are basically brush hurdles.

Aintree next week is the place to see real steeplechasing.

 

2600 trip today Stodge ,  Amade at Flemington beat a small but decent field paid 5s .Persan was red hot , Mohican Heights runner in last year's Derby  at Epsom in second .

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14 hours ago, Red Rum said:

2600 trip today Stodge ,  Amade at Flemington beat a small but decent field paid 5s .Persan was red hot , Mohican Heights runner in last year's Derby  at Epsom in second .

Hope you backed him, my friend.

I note it was a Soft 5 surface but pleasing to see the improvement. MOHICAN HEIGHTS was third in last year's King Edward VII At Ascot and I thought he had a chance in the Derby but, to be frank, he ran a shocker for all the race suited him even less than it did many of the others. 

As for AMADE, I know we're 6 months away but could he be a Cup contender?

Fantastic to see ADDEYBB round off his Aussie campaign so well - he's an absolute star - but the weather up here is completely unsuitable and I suspect we won't see him until the autumn. His jockey, Tom Marquand, was back on the scoreboard on Friday in the Classic Trial at Sandown on a 25/1 shot for the Haggas yard.

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Time to bring this back for the big Australian spring races albeit with a sharply reduced European contingent.

Quite a few ex-European gallopers in the 2400m Moonee Valley Gold Cup tomorrow morning.

FLOATING ARTIST was a borderline handicapper/Listed class horse over here. He was well held behind LE DON DE VIE in a Listed at Windsor last August and ended his European career running fifth to a certain TRUESHAN over 2800m at Salisbury.

I'm not sure SOUND or LE DON DE VIE have improved for the move to the southern hemisphere if I'm being honest. 

HARPO MARX raced for Aidan O'Brien on 2019 and ended up being beaten 30 lengths by STRADIVARIUS in the Goodwood Cup. He seems to have found some form in Group 3 handicaps but this will need a step forward.

STARCASTER was last seen in England winning a Class 4 handicap at York off a mark of 82 - this is a way from that and he did it well at Bendigo last time but this is a big jump in grade.

PONDUS was second in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes last autumn having missed a berth in the Melbourne Cup. He's raced again under the care of Joseph O'Brien this summer and was runner up in the Group 2 Curragh Cup - he'd have claims on that form and I suppose the run in the Bart Cummings will have set him right for this but I just question whether he has the pace for a 2400m race.

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The last chance to get a berth in Tuesday's big race tomorrow morning (UK) at Flemington.

Plenty of ex-European gallopers in the Hotham over 2500m. LE DON DE VIE and MIRAGE DANCER were well held at Geelong last week. EMISSARY ran down the field in the 2020 Derby and on his last European run beat TRITONIC at York. The latter has gone on to become a useful hurdler.

GREAT HOUSE was trained by Donnacha O'Brien and won a maiden at LImerick on his last European run after which he got a rating of 86 so nothing special. It's hard to argue with his run behind INCENTIVISE in the Caulfield Cup. 

MANKAYAN was a handicapper up here last year ending on a rating of 90 - consistent but didn't win very often. His final win behind AWAY HE GOES (scratched from the Melbourne Cup) was a decent effort. KNIGHTS ORDER raced in handicaps in 2018 getting ratings in the low 80s.

SOUS LES NUAGES, as you might expect, raced in France for Andre Fabre and again as you might expect showed his best form on slow turf.

Meanwhile, LAWS OF INDICES, MAXIMAL and REVE DE VOL fly the European flag in the Golden Eagle at Rosehill. 

LAWS OF INDICES won the Jean Prat at Deauville between a fifth placing in the Commonwealth Cup and an eighth in the Maurice de Gheest. I'm not sure the Jean Prat was the strongest Group 1 you'll ever see but it was over 1400m - the problem is all three races were run on soft or heavy ground and how he'll go on this faster surface I don't know.

MAXIMAL is more interesting - trained by Sir Michael Stoute and was fourth in the St James's Palace before chasing home a certain BAAEED last time out. Having seen another of BAAEED's victims, STATE OF REST, take out the Cox Plate, my reservation would be the 1400m trip but they've put the blinkers on and at 12s I would be tempted at an each way play.

Finally, REVE DE VOL raced in Ireland this season but over 2000m and 2400m and I'm far from convinced this trip will suit.

We also have TOP RANKED in the Classique Legend Stakes - he's a solid miler rated 113 but this is 1300m and again the trip would be the question. 

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GREAT HOUSE sneaks into the Cup as number 23 after the win in the Hotham. Is that form going to be good enough? 

20/1 up here and I suppose there are worse each way options. He comes into the race in form which is always useful and seven doesn't seem the worst barrier.

At Rosehill, TOP RANKED was scratched for the Classique Legend but both LAWS OF INDICES (fifth) and MAXIMAL (sixth) acquitted themselves well in the Golden Eagle and hopefully both will come on for the debut runs.

In terms of the Melbourne Cup, TWILIGHT PAYMENT may have some issues with barrier 2 but I think SPANISH MISSION has drawn a decent barrier in 14.

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4 hours ago, stodge said:

GREAT HOUSE sneaks into the Cup as number 23 after the win in the Hotham. Is that form going to be good enough? 

20/1 up here and I suppose there are worse each way options. He comes into the race in form which is always useful and seven doesn't seem the worst barrier.

At Rosehill, TOP RANKED was scratched for the Classique Legend but both LAWS OF INDICES (fifth) and MAXIMAL (sixth) acquitted themselves well in the Golden Eagle and hopefully both will come on for the debut runs.

In terms of the Melbourne Cup, TWILIGHT PAYMENT may have some issues with barrier 2 but I think SPANISH MISSION has drawn a decent barrier in 14.

Williams stable (TPayment) was talking of Spanish Mission being the real danger to a repeat. 

He has gone pretty well since last year, 5 runs I think but...9yr old gelding. Tends to put one off. Third Melbourne Cup. Great old horse. 

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It's a huge 24 hours in global racing and while my view is the Breeders Cup at Del Mar is the more significant, the MacKinnon is one of the great Aussie races.

ZAAKI left England at the end of last year rated 110 and was doing everything right until the Might & Power - can he bounce back from that? COLETTE won the Empire Rose but I think MO'UNGA might be the one. He beat a certain VERRY ELLEEGANT in the Winx and while he was a decent fourth in the Cox Plate, was the ground too slow?

CASCADIAN was a good horse in France in 2018 finishing runner up in the Jean Prat - could he reverse Kennedy Cantala form with SUPERSTORM?

HOMESMAN raced in Ireland as a young horse when trained by Aidan O'Brien - arguably his best effort was on firm American turf when third in the Belmont Derby. 

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