mulebacker

Such a CORRUPT and dirty sport

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3 hours ago, mulebacker said:

I see Danille deliberately restrained awareness in R4 at Matamata today  - and Ran last  when he clearly couldve won with the times at did at ruakaka

Last really - they will come up with some lying excuse if asked , This whole sport disgusts me , Its a little club for those in the know

if you cant handle losses dont punt.

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Interesting. You may well look at it and think she didn't try very hard in the straight, but to be honest the horse never fired a shot. It wasn't as if the horse was bolting and being restrained at any stage. No idea where you got that great lead up form from, from what I could see it had been beaten hopelessly in a couple of lead up trials.

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You back mules what do you expect 😆 You cant win them all , the tempo of the race didnt help but Daniele was rock and a hardplace from the draw, as stated with a few with early toe drawn inside..one things for sure they were not beating Side by side today. Fairly impressive

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The times ran at Ruakaka for 1000M mdn on a dead 4 were phenomenal for the class

The horse is quite capable of leading and from draw 8 it wasnt too big an ask to get across

Watch the run she never tried

 

For those who dont mind donating their money to the trainers and those in the know -  good for you.  -  I dont 

Yeah sometimes there are legitamte reasons for non performance

Watch when awareness wins by 4L in a up coming race

In QLD favorites miss the kick twice as often as non favs -  and I got plenty of data to prove this

Alan Thomas would concur -  Plenty of bullshit in this game 

 

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27 minutes ago, mulebacker said:

The times ran at Ruakaka for 1000M mdn on a dead 4 were phenomenal for the class

The horse is quite capable of leading and from draw 8 it wasnt too big an ask to get across

Watch the run she never tried

 

For those who dont mind donating their money to the trainers and those in the know -  good for you.  -  I dont 

Yeah sometimes there are legitamte reasons for non performance

Watch when awareness wins by 4L in a up coming race

In QLD favorites miss the kick twice as often as non favs -  and I got plenty of data to prove this

Alan Thomas would concur -  Plenty of bullshit in this game 

 

Mannies power notorious leader, the others would of kicked up. What happened last time fresh at Ruakaka when handy over 1200 ?Beaten in a  1.12 with a 36 600m . The trial at Cambridge before its 56.6  1000 was also rapid, but lead up trials before today only fair Mule, i agree with some of your content but you know the odds now try and beat them , theres crooks in all walks of life ,but this ride ?  Apologise to Danielle next time you see her 😃

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1 hour ago, mulebacker said:

The times ran at Ruakaka for 1000M mdn on a dead 4 were phenomenal for the class

The horse is quite capable of leading and from draw 8 it wasnt too big an ask to get across

Watch the run she never tried

 

For those who dont mind donating their money to the trainers and those in the know -  good for you.  -  I dont 

Yeah sometimes there are legitamte reasons for non performance

Watch when awareness wins by 4L in a up coming race

In QLD favorites miss the kick twice as often as non favs -  and I got plenty of data to prove this

Alan Thomas would concur -  Plenty of bullshit in this game 

 

Well Mulebacker, as you say, “Plenty of bullshit in this game”. The Alan T you’re referring to, I presume that’s the retired Qld Commentator? The one that’s Racing Manager for David Vandyke? You know the stable that lost the MM $2m race due to a positive returned by The Alligator? Is that the AT? 
Unless you are privy to the riding instructions given, one should not point the finger at Jocks - even though some do put in some bad ones. If you’re going to finger point and name a Jockey, I think you should first declare if you are talking thru the pocket. 
Who in their right mind would back a 4yo mare, that won a Ruakaka Maiden in Dec 2019 and has done absolutely nothing on racetrack or at trials since then that would cause  one to think it could run well? 
You owe DJ an apology. The headline you posted up using words like “Corrupt” and “dirty”, might see DJ visiting a defamation lawyer for a bit of advice! Just saying. The horse is clearly no star - and its form for the last 15 months confirms that. 
In a human analogy, Ron Clarke, now deceased champion runner, held 17 World records for running. But he never won a Olympic Gold Medal. I played squash against him at his home court when he lived in Melbourne and over a beer after the game in his room full of hundreds and hundreds of trophies he won at World Athletic meets. There was one framed display with the 17 World Record Gold Medals he had been awarded. He said to me, “I’d swap them all for just one Olympic Gold”.

moral of the story is, backing horses on times is very risky. It’s who finished behind them that counts most. Remember that.

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mulebacker pretty well every senior northern jockey ( including Danielle) have ridden horses I have shares in. I can't fault any of their rides. You are a very hard marker.I would say that Awareness has had Issues since that Ruakaka win. Might be "time" to tweak your computer modelling? Races are run on the track-not on a computer screen. As you well know the variables in racing are enormous!

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mulebacker looking back at that Ruakaka maiden win of Awareness please note that of the five horses she beat that day only one has won a race- O'Jessica and she took 11 races to win her maiden. A query- do you factor in the position of the running rail when you do your speed ratings?

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mulebacker the depth of talent in Maiden races varies enormously. A tip for you- Look at Race 2 at Matamata yesterday. That will prove to be a very strong form race. I won't be surprised if all 9 horses that Johny Johny beat will win a Maiden race. 

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I was looking at the run of 17 Dec 19 over the 1000M      56.63 for the distance is flying in anyone's language

This is open class or better. Please enlighten me on horses in NZ or OZ that can cut out the 1000M in 56.63    !!!!!!!!

 

1000M is specialist distance and it is not 1200 M fair enough . The sire is redoubtes choice a precocious sire and that gets a big tick for me

But yes it was 2 years ago . 

As far as riding instructions if the horse is just out for exercise and  experience with no intention of trying it should be labelled as such. But of course as that applies to many  runners in a race  then there would be  no money in the pool for the few that have been set for the race.

The sport lives off the  back of stupid punters to a degree. The 20pct take out by  TAB . There has never been any intention to inform them in the last 50 years apart from a form guide of the last couple of runs to mislead them. Tho data  is  now available

I will stick up for the long suffering punter - tho I admit  this may not be  the best example

Gubellini I look at the rail , the horses running style, and  the barrier ,field size , going distance    are put  into the equation  to get the barrier pct

 

I may well be wrong about this horse and Danielles ride, but she clearly pulled the plug in the straight . I would imagine the owners are extremely disappointed  with their charge

There are plenty of trainers out there who will not bring a horse in until the price is right -  Not  that this is the case here

But lets not pretend  its all above board

 

So again can someone give me a horse capable of running 1000M in 56.63  ?????  and as a MDN

 

 

 

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Louis Luck a te akau drop out out ran 1.08 and change in a 2yo race at Trentham, one would think on that time he was quite good, but no just good enough to race now in Southland

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1:08 and change is about 1  Std  Dev  from  the mean for Trentham  for 1200 on a Dead surface   - Not bad but not exceptional. Awareness's run puts it in a very rarified class

Trentham  is the 2nd fastest track after Riccarton for the 1200  so ...

As you note horses go bad  and numbers are only part of the story

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I imagine the Mule must have been beside himself with excitement in the good old days when Riccarton was a proper track and they used to fly down the 1,000m and 1,200m chute.

Perhaps one word of advice for the Mule: Ruakaka is a terrible track to base any form analysis on. The two tracks in NZ I am least likely to bet at are Ruakaka and Matamata. Likewise in Australia, never assume a horse that runs a good time at Moonee Valley will perform at Flemington.

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We're Doomed Rotorua would be the worse track in NZ when it comes to form analysis. On a Heavy 11 track in winter there form doesn't mean a thing. Horses with impeccable form get rolled and horses with a series of duck eggs pop up. Horses can win easily there and fail to measure up in subsequent starts.

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Always up for advice as I know FA about horses 

I guess Trump youre talking about key races and who went on to beat who or that 5th your mdn horse  ran  in stakes company was the key

We're doomed - i dont take alot of notice of raw times and always normalise them for the track and surface - as its always goin look fast at riccarton

Ruakaka and Arawa park are sand and pumice based so yeah very specialist type tracks that perhaps dont extrapolate

I have tried to find sets of tracks where you can compare performance - 

400M straights for the closers but many confounding variables.

I love Ellerslie for reliability - long straight  slight uphill and the back runners often get their chance

 

Turnip -  Good Points altho with times like 56.62 he could run backwards and win on anything

 

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There is plenty of crap in the sport as I have heard it from connections   several times when horses where pulled. But perhaps awareness is not a good example 

There are plenty of trainers whose horses get up at $20 in identical conditions in similar part of the form cycle and yet always fail at  $5

QLD  - Over a 5 year period -  7 pct of FAVs missed the Jump yet only 3 pct of other runners   . But I guess the horse was scared knowing he was fav and felt shy coming out of the gate

I have the data to prove that

Hmmm Daren Weir  - top Trainer In Victoria  - how many times was he warned before they finally took his license him

Yeah no corruption in this game

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14 minutes ago, mulebacker said:

Always up for advice as I know FA about horses 

I guess Trump youre talking about key races and who went on to beat who or that 5th your mdn horse  ran  in stakes company was the key

We're doomed - i dont take alot of notice of raw times and always normalise them for the track and surface - as its always goin look fast at riccarton

Ruakaka and Arawa park are sand and pumice based so yeah very specialist type tracks that perhaps dont extrapolate

I have tried to find sets of tracks where you can compare performance - 

400M straights for the closers but many confounding variables.

I love Ellerslie for reliability - long straight  slight uphill and the back runners often get their chance

 

Turnip -  Good Points altho with times like 56.62 he could run backwards and win on anything

 

Times in galloping are totally irrelevant, to many variables , grass surface and pace of the race.

What ever happened to the Gibbs horse that ran 1.06 down Trentham  😆

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12 minutes ago, mulebacker said:

Always up for advice as I know FA about horses 

I guess Trump youre talking about key races and who went on to beat who or that 5th your mdn horse  ran  in stakes company was the key

We're doomed - i dont take alot of notice of raw times and always normalise them for the track and surface - as its always goin look fast at riccarton

Ruakaka and Arawa park are sand and pumice based so yeah very specialist type tracks that perhaps dont extrapolate

I have tried to find sets of tracks where you can compare performance - 

400M straights for the closers but many confounding variables.

I love Ellerslie for reliability - long straight  slight uphill and the back runners often get their chance

 

Turnip -  Good Points altho with times like 56.62 he could run backwards and win on anything

 

Mate, FORGET about times. Also, it’s not about Key races. Concentrate (even in maiden races) on the quality of the field. That’s the key. Winning a maiden at Ruakaka against moderate performers in a fast time 15 months ago, is not a good yardstick to base your punting on. If Godolphin, Moody, Mick Price, Maher/Eustace and Lindsay Park all have horses in a maiden and they finish close together AND in a good time, then one should jot down the names of the horses for future ref. It’s who finishes behind the winner that determines the quality of the win. Now issue the apology for linking DJ to your “Corrupt” headline. A gentleman would do that. 

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I dont think anyone has accused me of being  gentleman before but having listened to and appreciated everyones input here   I concede I could well be  wrong  about this run

In which case to apologise to Danielle for putting her name in the same post 

However should awareness reverse its form next start winning by 5L  I will be back

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