RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
We're Doomed

Four for a Group1

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1 hour ago, We're Doomed said:

Four horses nominating for a Group 1 must be almost a record. 

Nah, We're Doomed.

I was at Caufield in October 2016 and Winx scared away weight-for-age runners in that year's Caulfield Stakes to such an extent that just she, Black Hart Bart and He Or She went round.

The only real surprise was that the bookies allowed 1-to-4 odds on her...

And I was at Royal Ascot in 1985 when Bob Back (as the 33-to-1 rrank outsider) beat three other runners in the feature race that day, the Prince Of Wales' Stakes over 10f, although I'm unsure as to whether or not that was a Group 1 back then...

 

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6 hours ago, Disillusioned said:

Nah, We're Doomed.

I was at Caufield in October 2016 and Winx scared away weight-for-age runners in that year's Caulfield Stakes to such an extent that just she, Black Hart Bart and He Or She went round.

The only real surprise was that the bookies allowed 1-to-4 odds on her...

And I was at Royal Ascot in 1985 when Bob Back (as the 33-to-1 rrank outsider) beat three other runners in the feature race that day, the Prince Of Wales' Stakes over 10f, although I'm unsure as to whether or not that was a Group 1 back then...

 

Neither of those 2yo races of course.

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5 hours ago, shaneMcAlister said:

Look at the Bonecrusher stakes, 1x5yo and the rest of the horses are older!!  There are major issues in our racing and the sooner all agree the better.

Sadly the top 3year olds from last season have hardly fired a shot this season and they are the horses we would normally expect to be contenders in these major WFA races. From memory the top three from the Derby, Oaks, 1,000 and 2,000 Guineas have hardly won a race between them this year. Couple that with any decent 3yo colt getting retired early these days and our 3yos not really being up to WFA racing and we just don't have genuine WFA contenders. Hard to know what the answer is, but the pattern of racing doesn't seem to be helping.

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12 minutes ago, Nerula said:

What was the cost for the nom and acceptance. That might tell you something.

$3,000 for running last, or if only the current four go around $10,000 for running last, so that should cover a fair bit of the nom and acceptance fees.

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15 hours ago, shaneMcAlister said:

Look at the Bonecrusher stakes, 1x5yo and the rest of the horses are older!!  There are major issues in our racing and the sooner all agree the better.

Looking from the outside, 3 mares and 5 geldings in the entries so no entire.

Can a 3-y-o run in the Bonecrusher or is it for 4-y-o and upwards? Assuming the latter, the question then becomes what happens to all the 3-y-o colts? I assume the very best head off to Australia and go to stud there - how often do entires stay in training as 4-y-o and 5-y-o? Those deemed capable of being stallions will head to stud - it's not the same pressure on the mares so the likes of WINX, BLACK CAVIAR, ENABLE and MAGICAL can race as 5-y-o or even beyond. 

You don't have the outlet of the jumps for the slow horses so they get cut and presumably keep on racing on the level and that's why you have big cards full of competitive races for slow horses and whisper it quietly, it happens everywhere else. It's not an NZ phenomenon  - every racing jurisdiction has quality issues but not quantity issues. Over here, the slow flat horses end up on the all weather or over hurdles - the net effect is the same.

The issue becomes how much quality can you afford - I'd argue putting on a race means proper prize money to attract, for example, some Aussie runners or you have to ask if it's worth the effort. It's never easy to downgrade races with great history and tradition but sometimes times change and you have to move with them.

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17 hours ago, Disillusioned said:

Nah, We're Doomed.

I was at Caufield in October 2016 and Winx scared away weight-for-age runners in that year's Caulfield Stakes to such an extent that just she, Black Hart Bart and He Or She went round.

The only real surprise was that the bookies allowed 1-to-4 odds on her...

And I was at Royal Ascot in 1985 when Bob Back (as the 33-to-1 rrank outsider) beat three other runners in the feature race that day, the Prince Of Wales' Stakes over 10f, although I'm unsure as to whether or not that was a Group 1 back then...

 

A lot of Winx's races wouldn't have gone ahead had Chris Waller not entered 5-6 resuming stayers. Detracted from the brilliance of Winx, but such is racing.

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12 minutes ago, NextPlease said:

A lot of Winx's races wouldn't have gone ahead had Chris Waller not entered 5-6 resuming stayers. Detracted from the brilliance of Winx, but such is racing.

Something more trainers need to think of. Both 74 sprints in the SI this week were dumped because of lack of interest. There must be a few horses in that class really struggling for an opportunity. Some trainers might have to bite the bullet and enter a couple of maidens to give their 74 sprinters an opportunity.

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51 minutes ago, stodge said:

Looking from the outside, 3 mares and 5 geldings in the entries so no entire.

Can a 3-y-o run in the Bonecrusher or is it for 4-y-o and upwards? Assuming the latter, the question then becomes what happens to all the 3-y-o colts? I assume the very best head off to Australia and go to stud there - how often do entires stay in training as 4-y-o and 5-y-o? Those deemed capable of being stallions will head to stud - it's not the same pressure on the mares so the likes of WINX, BLACK CAVIAR, ENABLE and MAGICAL can race as 5-y-o or even beyond. 

You don't have the outlet of the jumps for the slow horses so they get cut and presumably keep on racing on the level and that's why you have big cards full of competitive races for slow horses and whisper it quietly, it happens everywhere else. It's not an NZ phenomenon  - every racing jurisdiction has quality issues but not quantity issues. Over here, the slow flat horses end up on the all weather or over hurdles - the net effect is the same.

The issue becomes how much quality can you afford - I'd argue putting on a race means proper prize money to attract, for example, some Aussie runners or you have to ask if it's worth the effort. It's never easy to downgrade races with great history and tradition but sometimes times change and you have to move with them.

3yos can race in our WFA races, but these days seldom do. When they could race for $1m last week against a pretty ordinary field of 3yos they are hardly going to bust a gut to race against older horses for $200,000.

One of the problems is that a lot of our major races have had their dates and conditions shuffled around a lot, and not for purely racing purposes, generally it is more for marketing reasons. We have also had sales series races added to the pattern, just about always to the detriment of existing races. And ironically the industry helps fund restricted entry races that detract from the established pattern: strange but true.

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9 hours ago, We're Doomed said:

3yos can race in our WFA races, but these days seldom do. When they could race for $1m last week against a pretty ordinary field of 3yos they are hardly going to bust a gut to race against older horses for $200,000.

One of the problems is that a lot of our major races have had their dates and conditions shuffled around a lot, and not for purely racing purposes, generally it is more for marketing reasons. We have also had sales series races added to the pattern, just about always to the detriment of existing races. And ironically the industry helps fund restricted entry races that detract from the established pattern: strange but true.

Big changes need to be made, especially with the programming and conditions of our "feature" races which have lost their lustre in recent years and are not getting adequate fields.

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Hundreds of two year olds around......look at the trials !

But IMO many are reluctant to expose their two year olds to racing .

Makes more $$$$ and sense to train them up patiently ,each horse in stable is a profit centre ......then try and nail a sale to overseas buyer looking for a ready to race horse with no poor form.

Yes ,breeding numbers are down but in my experience not too many horses seem to make two year olds in NZ even though we seem to a have access to the Aussie speed sires !

The Karaka races are a big drawcard ,plus the other 'Bonus' races available may be targeted as well. Other than that be 'be patient' or your horse will be chasing $10k-$15 k  stakes for next two years !

This trend been around past 15 yrs IMO ,a top trainer told me to watch the urgency on trials day....win a trial = nail a sale !

The secret to survival !

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