RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
mike28

nz derby

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10 hours ago, Memphis3 said:

I've backed Massir so there is one you wont have to worry about Mike.

As.you say very even with what is left.

Throw Shockallia in for the quinella.

Done exactly the same M3, just for an interest. Maasir seems to be heading right place, right time.

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If Montre Moi starts in the Derby, I think that’s my pick at the moment - as long as M McNab is not the rider. Looking at his rides on this horse and his efforts on Tokorangi show me that he’s not a “patient” jockey. JMHO. But if you look at his losing rides on those two, the horses don’t seem to settle for him and he panics a bit when towards the rear of the field. A change of Jockey has seen both horses perform well. Jockeys make a huge difference- especially in staying races. They all make mistakes. Cheval DeTroy and Buzz Lightyear come to mind. 
Sam Collett’s ride in the Welly Cup was a classic example of putting a horse in a great spot and waiting, waiting, waiting...... Beautiful to watch.

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Cheval de Troy! Did that animal get the short end of the stick. Manufactured into derby favouritism. Clearly did not get the 12f. So they send it to Sydney. Thrash it in top level races including the BMW I think, certainly AJC derby. Still doesn't run 12f (who knew?).

Not seen again. 

Agree about patient rides.

I still maintain El Duce was a shot in the Auckland cup the year he won the Waikato Cup and Queen Elizabeth...IF she had held him till the 300 in the straight. 

Led on turn, faded for sixth from memory. 

 

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7 hours ago, Ribot said:

I heard there aiming for the derby with Amarelinha, If so I think she’ll be very hard to beat..

What about Drawn 16 Ribot? She does settle beautifully but can  she work early and have that potent Sprint left  at the Buisness  end 🤔

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9 hours ago, Blue said:

Ha, double bugger. Is too much being asked of some of these youngsters? Bone chips in knees & hocks seem quite prevalent these days.

Cant be down to track surfaces Blue? Compared to days gone by whats changed? 

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9 hours ago, Gruff said:

Cant be down to track surfaces Blue? Compared to days gone by whats changed? 

Are we breeding a faster, finer yet weaker animal?? In terms of days gone by I think in terms of 40 years or more. Not uncommon for youngsters to have a dozen races. I think the great yet slightly built Mayo Gold had something like 14 or more races at 2 winning most of them. Summer tracks were hard and fast - little or no watering. Horses got "shinny" and were eased or spelled. Maybe some had bone chips too but perhaps the technology was not up to diagnosing at that stage. Today yearlings are xrayed at the sales for joint growth. Are buyers prepared to buy regardless of what the xrays show? Training and feeding has changed markedly and not neccessarily for the better. Some stables have big numbers, lots of winners but is this at the cost of those who need time or a little more attention? Personally to have a horse in work for six months and race just 4 times before needing a break is, to my mind, not a campaign. Track conditions often seem to be used as an excuse. Gruff, to answer your question ' what's changed?' I think the answer is "everything."

 

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Is El Chico a good case Study? Raced competitively to a ripe old age breaking 1.08 for 1200 it seems at least a couple of dozen times, 1.21 1400s and 1.33 miles, even with a failed Queensland  stint in between, not uncommon to see him race 3 times in ten days during Summer close to Retirement with ‘Dicky legs’  ..They breed them Soft these days 🙄😆 

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1 hour ago, Blue said:

Are we breeding a faster, finer yet weaker animal?? In terms of days gone by I think in terms of 40 years or more. Not uncommon for youngsters to have a dozen races. I think the great yet slightly built Mayo Gold had something like 14 or more races at 2 winning most of them. Summer tracks were hard and fast - little or no watering. Horses got "shinny" and were eased or spelled. Maybe some had bone chips too but perhaps the technology was not up to diagnosing at that stage. Today yearlings are xrayed at the sales for joint growth. Are buyers prepared to buy regardless of what the xrays show? Training and feeding has changed markedly and not neccessarily for the better. Some stables have big numbers, lots of winners but is this at the cost of those who need time or a little more attention? Personally to have a horse in work for six months and race just 4 times before needing a break is, to my mind, not a campaign. Track conditions often seem to be used as an excuse. Gruff, to answer your question ' what's changed?' I think the answer is "everything."

 

Bill O' Gorman a trainer in Newmarket in 80s and 90s was incredible with his youngsters . He trained a horse in 84 called Provideo. Won first race of flat season The Brokeslsby and was still going in November when sent to Hollywood Park for a Group 1 . Won 16 out of 21 races in season  . Ended up in Tasmania at stud and left a Group 1 winner in Melbourne . 

To show it was no fluke in early nineties he trained Timeless Times to win 16 juvenile races out of 20 odd , that horse won on consecutive days twice and won and placed on  consecutive days on another occasion . He ended up racing stateside late in season , won a few more races later in life and went to stud .

Both of these were not his fastest 2 year in his career,  he had a horse called Bronesbury who could out pace a Ford Sierra Cosworth for three furlongs then empty to zero at the 1 pole .

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34 minutes ago, Red Rum said:

Bill O' Gorman a trainer in Newmarket in 80s and 90s was incredible with his youngsters . He trained a horse in 84 called Provideo. Won first race of flat season The Brokeslsby and was still going in November when sent to Hollywood Park for a Group 1 . Won 16 out of 21 races in season  . Ended up in Tasmania at stud and left a Group 1 winner in Melbourne . 

To show it was no fluke in early nineties he trained Timeless Times to win 16 juvenile races out of 20 odd , that horse won on consecutive days twice and won and placed on  consecutive days on another occasion . He ended up racing stateside late in season , won a few more races later in life and went to stud .

Both of these were not his fastest 2 year in his career,  he had a horse called Bronesbury who could out pace a Ford Sierra Cosworth for three furlongs then empty to zero at the 1 pole .

Cosworths standing 1/4 in sub 17s Red?  Getting power to the ground on a racecourse grey area, but sounds impressive 🤔

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I know it's only two examples but Mayo Gold started 17 times as a 2yo between October and May '65 beating all comers and carrying up to 59.5 kgs. Then came out the next season to beat the boys again to be top 3yo in '66. Another toughie comes to mind was the Bill sanders trained Ballybrit who, in the '75 season started 11 times at 2 yo, won seven, incl five in a row. He won under 62.5 kgs and ran third in the Matamata Breeders under 65kgs.

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1 hour ago, Gruff said:

Cosworths standing 1/4 in sub 17s Red?  Getting power to the ground on a racecourse grey area, but sounds impressive 🤔

Driven one at pace once Gruff , not sure how it would handle around Tattenham Corner on a wet day though. 

Have a you tube of 1983 King George Stakes Goodwood and tell me even The Stig couldn't drive a Cosworth quicker  first three furlongs than Brondesbury ran . Then watch one of my all time favorites Soba hose on past him . 

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I'm keen on Milford in Derby ..a bit one=paced in Avondale Guineas but ground away, only 1.5L from winner at post over 2100m without threatening the winner ...reckon 2400 Ellerslie next weekend will be spot on! hopefully will be the superior stayer on the day .close relative of Sacred Falls

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14 minutes ago, weasel57 said:

I'm keen on Milford in Derby ..a bit one=paced in Avondale Guineas but ground away, only 1.5L from winner at post over 2100m without threatening the winner ...reckon 2400 Ellerslie next weekend will be spot on! hopefully will be the superior stayer on the day .close relative of Sacred Falls

What do you think of Lord Ardmore Weasel ? Had quite an interuptered run with Milford on its outside last time and looks another who should appreciate the 2400 🤔 

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