RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
Red Rum

Lethal

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The million buck sale topper Lethal may have been sacked , no trainer details on NZTR . Maybe someone else will give him a go . That's some dough up in smoke minus tax deductiions  I suppose . Be interesting if he appears on Gavelhouse as there's plenty of slower horses but he was weighed down by price tag  , never seemed to settle and help himself , if he could he got close to win a few times .

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I'm regularly surprised he hasn't appeared on Gavelhouse before now. TA have offloaded a few lately. Not neccessarily a criticism it's simply if they're not performing or reached their mark they might as well be offered elsewhere so Gavelhouse is doing a good service in that respect.

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4 hours ago, We're Doomed said:

I see he was bought by a colt breeding syndicate and he is now a gelding so no real use to that syndicate now. I'm sure he could win a race or two if persevered with. Kurow perhaps.

He's shown as Retired today , Equinox was another of the 2018 breeding syndicate who cost a bit  , earnt 82k so far  but still pile of cash burnt . He's a gelding too , maybe there's a way of freezing the balls and thawing them and glueing  them back in later .

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Laureate another 2018 breeding syndicate 625k yearling  , gelding 8 runs for no wins .

Three geldings , total cost 2.4 million , 2 wins out of 34 races and about 96 k in prize money.  Not the best breeding syndicate . On plus side Probabeel came out same sale for 380 k, there were two 900k fillies not much chop though . 

Expensive business , glad I am poor so don't have that stress .

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14 hours ago, Trump said:

Give him to Bryce - he’ll get the best out of him!

Bryce has Twilight Zone and got a win out of Faltonius both ex Te Akau I recall , or in TZ case didn't race out of stable was was brought by them I think as a yearling .

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1 hour ago, Trump said:

I’d rather buy 10 horses for less than $30k each for a max spend possible of $300k, rather than 1 horse for $300k. Chances are I’ll find one of my ten (the cheapest one!) will turn out a good horse and end up being sold to HK for $$$$$$$$$$! :) 

Fair amount of logic in that Trump except training fees  times ten might just tighten the sphyncter muscle a tad if positive results aren't forthcoming reasonably swiftly.

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48 minutes ago, Blue said:

Fair amount of logic in that Trump except training fees  times ten might just tighten the sphyncter muscle a tad if positive results aren't forthcoming reasonably swiftly.

True. I still remember discussing with Mal Seccull, his purchase in Adelaide of a nice yearling for $3500. He ended up calling it Manikato. You might remember it? He bought another 17 yearlings after Manikato - all slow. Buying a horse is a lolly scramble and don’t let any “urgers” tell you otherwise! 

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2019 Breeding syndicate , 1.4 million No Limits,  gelding 3 runs no wins 800 bucks in bank , Press Baron gelding retired nought , Conquistador gelding , maiden.  No wins , no balls left  . It's hard to believe but they are worse than 2018 bunch .

 These breeding syndicate horses should have testicles or am I missing something here .

 

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12 hours ago, Trump said:

True. I still remember discussing with Mal Seccull, his purchase in Adelaide of a nice yearling for $3500. He ended up calling it Manikato. You might remember it? He bought another 17 yearlings after Manikato - all slow. Buying a horse is a lolly scramble and don’t let any “urgers” tell you otherwise! 

Trump,  we all do our own kind of homework to varying degrees then make our decisions accordingly but buying yearlings is perhaps the biggest gamble of all. At that stage we only know they can walk, we don't know if they can run. But invariably we keep going back to find the ones that can. Racing would be lost without us.

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4 hours ago, Blue said:

I notice No Limits, $1m plus purchase last year is now a gelding too.

Had three breeding syndicate horses in today , Laureate later and Willpower scratched out . 

No Limits looks like Lethal to have ability, he battled on OK just now  , but more grand worth of ability  or South Island lease for few mates for a bit of fun rather than mill plus breeding syndicate . 

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52 minutes ago, mr_gee said:

they  just hyped up ponies not worth  the money forked out  been happening   for  ages look at don garcia 

Huge ask getting a commercial stallion that way when up against Australian and European stallions  , how many Savabeel stallions out there standing for real coin ,  Embellish only stands at 3k ,   to compare that a horse like Eminent stands at 7500 , What's the Story placed in Derby only standing for peanuts really.  So male  offspring to commercial stallion ratio Savabeel , what is the success ratio ? . It looks low but I may be mistaken .

 

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If you want a reasonable chance of having a possible Stallion for a breeding barn in this part of the world, imho, apart from Golden Slipper and Blue Diamond winners, you need a horse that wins a G1 over 1600m. A bit of speed. Or even a 2000m G1 win like the Cox Plate (eg, Shamus Award). ZABEEL had the breeding but I think his G1 win over 1600m set him up. A NZ Guineas win won’t do it. Darci Brahma’s JJ Atkins G1 win in Oz franked his class to accompany his excellent breeding. Tavistock I think was a 1600m G1 winner. I know nothing about breeding (some will say that’s obvious!) but when you look at the horses that make stallions in this part of the world (exceptions noted) they invariably have the G1 wins up to 1600m. 

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56 minutes ago, Trump said:

If you want a reasonable chance of having a possible Stallion for a breeding barn in this part of the world, imho, apart from Golden Slipper and Blue Diamond winners, you need a horse that wins a G1 over 1600m. A bit of speed. Or even a 2000m G1 win like the Cox Plate (eg, Shamus Award). ZABEEL had the breeding but I think his G1 win over 1600m set him up. A NZ Guineas win won’t do it. Darci Brahma’s JJ Atkins G1 win in Oz franked his class to accompany his excellent breeding. Tavistock I think was a 1600m G1 winner. I know nothing about breeding (some will say that’s obvious!) but when you look at the horses that make stallions in this part of the world (exceptions noted) they invariably have the G1 wins up to 1600m. 

Tavistock won the Mudgeway and the Waikato sprint , both G1 at 1400mtrs , he also won the Blamey at G1 1600mtrs . Being by Montjeu these wins at the shorter trips were the ones that cemented his stallion credentials . It's all about speed now , even in the UK those champion long distance horses go straight to National Hunt type studs .

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