RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
Berri

NZ Breeders ....consider this

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Everyone knows I am a supporter of the rating system that bench marks all horses against each other with a certified and standardised process based on data. This process is at its best in the UK and Europe due to the development of Timeform, the Racing Post and the official BHA rating. We should be looking at this with closer scrutiny in NZ.

Franking form is using these rating systems and comparing horses against other horses. What we are now seeing is many UK and European horses racing in Australia, where the form of the UK and Europe can be franked against the Australian form. What is becoming very obvious is that there are more top class horses in the UK and Europe than there are in Australia. Some might say that Australian trainers improve these horses due to the retraining of fast twitch fibre types which develop slow twitch characteristics due to the type of training they do. But that doesn't explain away the results of the international trainers who come to Australia and win the biggies while they are down here.

I have a theory....its all about the depth of pedigrees. If you start to look at the pedigrees of some of these horses, they simply have materially more genetic horse power than we have. They've had the best stallions go to the best mares for generations, whereas we in Australia and NZ started from a slightly inferior base.

So NZ breeders, we should make a concerted effort to by mares from the UK and Europe which have genetically superior bloodlines in relation to NZ broodmares. Check out what happens when you cover a mare by a European Derby winner (Quest for Fame rated 126) who is out of a mare by High Line (rated 124) from a cracking family, when you cover that mare by a Derby winner (Montjeu rated 131)....Tavistock. All of these horses are officially rated way above the yard arm. To put this into perspective, Avantage rated 100, Probabeel rated 107, Melody Belle rated 110, Black Caviar rated 133, Winx rated 130 and Enable  rated 129

We are slipping. Australia has at least stepped slightly forward when it comes to mares but they have steam rolled us in relation to stallions. 

Time to get motivated. Our real racing market is Australia and NZ is a better breeding nation

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I agree with you Berri and it is good to see you looking at the deep pedigrees.

But to be fair a few people have been bringing in NH mares over recent years --Kevin Hickman, the Moores, Paul Moroney has been buying regularly for clients for  a few decades and now Cambridge Stud has been buying quite a few in the last couple of years. Are they the right ones , only time will tell.

For some fun (I cannot afford to actually buy)  I have followed the NH sales, looking at the catalogues and results , in recent years, to see what could be achieved if the money was available. I have found that some good pedigreed fillies/mares can be bought for reasonable prices from the HIT training sales as opposed to the broodmare sales at the end of the year. They are not necessarily coming with great race performances, but 1 or 2 wins of minor races is possible without breaking the bank. This also gives you the opportunity to approach the NH studs to have the filly/mare served to SH time and bought back to NZ over our early summer. 

I have also found that France can give good buying opportunities compared to England & Ireland.

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Just a repeat of the same ol.....Paul Moroney and I were selling them to him as quickly as we could. The Fay Ritchwhite partnerships were a blessing for NZ. When you look at our status as producers, the imports helped make us what we are. Biggest example of this was Zabeel....by Sir Tristram out of a Nureyev daughter of Detroit. Nureyev rated 130, Detroit 128. Octagnonal by Zabeel out of a daughter of Habiti (rated 129). 

Compare that to Embellish (rated 104) covering Avantage (rated 100). The results of the Australian spring races just reinforce the entire position. How can the UK second tier horses be so dominant when they are not the best over there? All of that was franked in the US yesterday. The European horses cleaned up.  Moroney and I saw it in the early 80's. Waverley Star and Eastern Joy had just hit the scene. Both out of European imports. 

We're not competitive anymore because we've failed to upgrade and follow the science, bench marking and the statistics. And al the while we let ourselves down because we can't properly frank our form. Good to see one of the NZTR board choices is purportedly IT savvy.  We need it badly to really show where we are positioned.

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3 hours ago, Insider said:

Lot 1197?

LOL

Very good LOL.... but lets pull apart the pedigree to understand what I'm talking about...

image.thumb.png.9e0bff92430122aaff2acc7de15a920a.png

So the dam Spiaggia won a race in France from only 2 starts. She's by Makfi (rated 128). She's a half sister to Valbchek (rated 108 ... Probabeel rated 107) and Schroder's Mistake (rated 91 ...Vadavar who recently ran 3rd to Melody Belle and Avantage in the Livermol rated 96 and Embellish rated 98)

2nd Dam by Spectrum (rated 124) half to Star of Seville (rated 119), English Ballet ( rated 106) and King of Comedy (rated 121 - ran 2nd in the St James Palace).

So even though this is probably not a blue blood pedigree in European terms, where can you get this sort of horse power in NZ terms? That's why we're all getting smashed by the Europens and the NZ breds are becoming less relevant. Time to start thinking....

 

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I have just had quick look at the French Breeding Sale catalogue for the sale on December 5-8. There are some really good fillies or mares not in foal --from an on paper pedigree view point. For those interested in what Berri has raisde with this thread, it could be worth following the results. I think there are some very well bred horses that could be be relatively cheap.

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On 11/16/2020 at 8:54 AM, Berri said:

Very good LOL.... but lets pull apart the pedigree to understand what I'm talking about...

image.thumb.png.9e0bff92430122aaff2acc7de15a920a.png

So the dam Spiaggia won a race in France from only 2 starts. She's by Makfi (rated 128). She's a half sister to Valbchek (rated 108 ... Probabeel rated 107) and Schroder's Mistake (rated 91 ...Vadavar who recently ran 3rd to Melody Belle and Avantage in the Livermol rated 96 and Embellish rated 98)

2nd Dam by Spectrum (rated 124) half to Star of Seville (rated 119), English Ballet ( rated 106) and King of Comedy (rated 121 - ran 2nd in the St James Palace).

So even though this is probably not a blue blood pedigree in European terms, where can you get this sort of horse power in NZ terms? That's why we're all getting smashed by the Europens and the NZ breds are becoming less relevant. Time to start thinking....

 

Berri, to get the quality or rating of our horse population up I guess it can be done two ways? 

 

1)Import a boat load of higher rated well related mares.

 

2) Or use higher rated stallions over our mares - assuming that would work but would take a long long time. 

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On 11/18/2020 at 10:46 AM, Kingshill said:

Berri, to get the quality or rating of our horse population up I guess it can be done two ways? 

 

1)Import a boat load of higher rated well related mares.

 

2) Or use higher rated stallions over our mares - assuming that would work but would take a long long

selling all those top end fillies and mares off to Australia hasn’t helped any. We have lost so much quality it’s not funny! 

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Selling all those quality mares and fillies to Oz has damaged us even more. That trend is killing our racing industry too. The light at the end of the tunnel is very dim atm. 
 

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Looking at the winner of yesterday's Japan Cup is interesting. ( I think they said she had won 9 Grp1's ). Almond Eye ( Lord Kanaloa  x Fusaichi Pandora) . She is line breed (or inbred depending on your definition) to the mare Sex Appeal.  The dam of Sex Appeal is Best in Show which appears in the dam line of Redoute's Choice and quite few other good horses.

Almond Eye has plenty of good sires up close, including Sunday Silence.

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