Archer

M Cup, what do ya reckon

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8 hours ago, Archer said:
Sir Dragonet7.00
Tiger Moth7.00
Anthony Van Dyck9.00
Surprise Baby9.00
Verry Elleegant10.00
Russian Camelot11.00
Prince Of Arran13.00
Finche21.00
Master Of Reality21.00
Miami Bound26.00
Steel Prince26.00
 
:)
Ashrun34.00

Ashrun in Hotham , 420 at moment , I am on him Saturday , he should wind up down that straight pretty good . Schabau the danger .

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Tiger Moth looks like the formula horse - lightly raced, well weighted etc, but his two siblings couldn't win beyond a mile, and were well beaten when they attempted it - might be a risk over two miles?

 

The more I think about it, the more it's a Anthony Van Dyck, Prince of Arran, Sir Dragonet trifecta

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Do any of the experts on this site think that Verry Elleegant will get the distance ? Finishes the races of very fast, but the 2 miles could test the mare.

Any comments would be appreciated.

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Some believe that following the Jockey tip often pays divies. Eg, Bossie picks up Cox Plate win after Sir Dragonet pick up (Bowman suspension). So Michael Walker’s blind loyalty to Sir OG, forces him to ditch Prince of Aran. A horse he’s had a great association with in winning Geelong Cup and two MC placings incl runner up 2019. So that should be your omen bet! In form rider, Jamie Kah (four wins on Cox Plate day) picks up the Walker reject and destiny awaits another female jockey! Walker definitely needs a change of Manager. 

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The Trainer of Surprise Baby is very astute. He’s aimed this horse solely at this race for 12 months. Nothing has been left to chance. He’s even changed jockeys. Weighted to win and will be ready on Tuesday to repel the European invaders (who will as usual be hard to toss). The one positive for the Invaders is that COVID has kept the Uk/Euro riders away. They will have a better chance with local riders. How many cups have they lost due to incompetent riding by those jockeys unused to Australian way of racing? Heaps. 

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Tiger Moth opening at $6 is absolute blasphemy, what do they know which we dont? 

I think it's a very good field, better than last years as theres a lot of exposed form, interest in the cup will be greater than previous years as theres a lot more "fandom" where punters have built a relationship with their favored runner. 

 

 

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12 minutes ago, Trump said:

It’s a bit early to be making selections. Until barriers, track conditions (what if it piddles down), jockey confirmations, etc. until all that is known, making selections this far out is not a wise move. 

I know but probably by tuesday I might have 16 sorted out lol

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2 hours ago, Trump said:

The Trainer of Surprise Baby is very astute. He’s aimed this horse solely at this race for 12 months. Nothing has been left to chance. He’s even changed jockeys. Weighted to win and will be ready on Tuesday to repel the European invaders (who will as usual be hard to toss). The one positive for the Invaders is that COVID has kept the Uk/Euro riders away. They will have a better chance with local riders. How many cups have they lost due to incompetent riding by those jockeys unused to Australian way of racing? Heaps. 

If this horse has improved on 12 months ago and gets the right track and half the ride of last year then i'm in boots and all . First up run was huge and desperately unlucky second up but still went great , don't know if he will run again but he's got my money in the cup .

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2 hours ago, Trump said:

The Trainer of Surprise Baby is very astute. He’s aimed this horse solely at this race for 12 months. Nothing has been left to chance. He’s even changed jockeys. Weighted to win and will be ready on Tuesday to repel the European invaders (who will as usual be hard to toss). The one positive for the Invaders is that COVID has kept the Uk/Euro riders away. They will have a better chance with local riders. How many cups have they lost due to incompetent riding by those jockeys unused to Australian way of racing? Heaps. 

Astute wouldn't be the first word I would use to describe trainer of SB , a mere Google will remind people of his past when not so astute . Anyway redemption story will be good read if SB wins. 

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23 minutes ago, Red Rum said:

Astute wouldn't be the first word I would use to describe trainer of SB , a mere Google will remind people of his past when not so astute . Anyway redemption story will be good read if SB wins. 

I was referring to his “Training” of horses - nothing else :) 

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5 minutes ago, Trump said:

I was referring to his “Training” of horses - nothing else :) 

 He does look to be setting this up well and been patient   he's been proved a cruel bastard in past , redemption , rehab  I suppose but personally I would rather he not win Tuesday . Hope if he does win the interviewer says " it's great to see what you've achieved since you've stopped putting volts into your horses  after you got caught out  , congratulations " . 

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Not to mention EPO ! But bear in mind, there are many instances of leading stables being involved in dubious practices. The name Lee Freedman comes to mind as one who got I think 6months for one of his returning an EPO high reading. It’s a matter of “who gets caught”. But getting back to Preusker. If he wins the MC I doubt that he will give a rats about any negative comments. On a related topic, has there ever been a case in the history of the MC that a winner has returned a positive swab? Don’t want to tarnish the reputation of the historic race, but if the answer is “No”, it begs the question does it not. Having been on the receiving end of having a winner lose a race due to a positive, and knowing the circumstances, it can happen in even the most innocent of cases due to ignorance or carelessness. I can’t recall a MC winner ever being DQ’d. Will probably never happen.

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25 minutes ago, Trump said:

Not to mention EPO ! But bear in mind, there are many instances of leading stables being involved in dubious practices. The name Lee Freedman comes to mind as one who got I think 6months for one of his returning an EPO high reading. It’s a matter of “who gets caught”. But getting back to Preusker. If he wins the MC I doubt that he will give a rats about any negative comments. On a related topic, has there ever been a case in the history of the MC that a winner has returned a positive swab? Don’t want to tarnish the reputation of the historic race, but if the answer is “No”, it begs the question does it not. Having been on the receiving end of having a winner lose a race due to a positive, and knowing the circumstances, it can happen in even the most innocent of cases due to ignorance or carelessness. I can’t recall a MC winner ever being DQ’d. Will probably never happen.

I don't know about MC but a  high profile DQ on failed test I can think of was Oaks win , must be late 80s Aliysa trained by Sir Micheal Stoute to win Oaks . The shit hit the fan and Aga Khan withdrew all his horses from UK trainers for a number of years , I think he only had the odd few since so was big deal . Snow Bride was the promoted winner and she ended  up as dam of Lammtara who was never beaten including the Derby and Arc .

If the feed situation recently had not been found in France any number of high profile horses could have won and been DQd Inc the northerners placed in big ones as they would have been blissfully unaware .

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3 hours ago, Red Rum said:

Astute wouldn't be the first word I would use to describe trainer of SB , a mere Google will remind people of his past when not so astute . Anyway redemption story will be good read if SB wins. 

Better Story would be the quinella 🤔

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23 minutes ago, Mattski said:

Why is Master of Reality at around 30's? Second across the line last year.........relegated to 4th. His form in the UK looks ok. Top young trainer. 56 is plenty of weight.

Thoughts?

Got look of classier renewal this year , that be my feeling . Not saying he cannot win but normally he wouldnt see AVDs arse if it had a beacon on it .

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Backed Warning early....one of those races where you could nominate 5 or 6 and perhaps only snag a place.

Think AVD is suspect at the 16f, and at the weight. Arran weighted to win, same with Surprise Baby. Chosen One impressed in CC. Stratum Albion reminds me of Max Dynamite, a bit. 

Not a race to bet big, for me. So many variables to unpick....

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On 10/29/2020 at 11:17 AM, Trump said:

It’s a bit early to be making selections. Until barriers, track conditions (what if it piddles down), jockey confirmations, etc. until all that is known, making selections this far out is not a wise 

Sorry I'm replying to the wrong comment.

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6 minutes ago, Houlahan's Dream said:

Backed Warning early....one of those races where you could nominate 5 or 6 and perhaps only snag a place.

Think AVD is suspect at the 16f, and at the weight. Arran weighted to win, same with Surprise Baby. Chosen One impressed in CC. Stratum Albion reminds me of Max Dynamite, a bit. 

Not a race to bet big, for me. So many variables to unpick....

For many the only race they ever bet on,strange and hard to believe but Wingatui will probably have a bigger crowd on cup day than Flemington,now what would the odds have been on that before the pandemic?

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