RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
stodge

Stodge Looks South

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1 hour ago, stodge said:

So we have the final field and barrier draw for the great race on Tuesday which is worth £2.3 million in UK to the winner.

Eight European-trained runners in this year's renewal.

TIGER MOTH is still 5/1 favourite but hasn't been given a kind draw. The question is whether he has the pace to get a position and utilise that to quicken off the home turn. He's a classic placed runner but not as experienced as REWILDING or CROSS COUNTER were but he must have a significant chance.

ANTHONY VAN DYCK has been handed stall 3 which you might think a positive but I'm not so sure. Can Bowman avoid the traffic and get the horse close to the speed? He can quicken off a slow pace as we saw in the Foy but he looks vulnerable to a faster later finisher. He'll be thereabouts but I can't see him winning.

PRINCE OF ARRAN has stall one - well, you know what you're going to get with this one and he's been backed over here from 25s down to 10s. I could see him running a place but not winning.

MASTER OF REALITY was fourth last year but his European form this summer hasn't been inspiring. He's not for me.

ASHRUN has been left out at 24 by the draw - he did it well enough in the Hotham and the extra 800m will be a big help. He'll be in the finishing rush and 25/1 over here could be a price I could get involved.

STRATUM ALBION was second to the useful ENBIHAAR in the Lonsdale which is fair enough. He's a dual purpose horse and I just wonder if he has the speed for this.

TWILIGHT PAYMENT was beaten less than four lengths when eleventh last year. He was up the front from the 19 stall but the 12 stall this year looks much friendlier and I could see him running a big race at 33/1.

DASHING WILLOUGHBY was beaten a long way in the Caulfield Cup and is held by STRATUM ALBION on Lonsdale form. No chance for me.

The two Europeans I like at bigger odds are ASHRUN and TWILIGHT PAYMENT.

As for a winner, FINCHE perhaps?

No Sir Dragonet then Stodge....needs a wet track perhaps.....?
Finche is a lovely animal but that extravagant action of his does put me off...

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I ended up backing TWILIGHT PAYMENT each way at 33/1 and SURPRISE BABY on the nose so the book for the race is:

TWILIGHT PAYMENT £ 5 each way at 33/1 - stake £10  Return £188.20

SURPRISE BABY  £10 win at 13/2 stake £10 Return £0

That's a healthy profit on the race which will keep Mrs Stodge in a style to which she has become accustomed (and reminds me accordingly !!)

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Back then to a review of the race from the European perspective.

A 1-2-3 for European trained runners and a fine fourth for the Kiwis with THE CHOSEN ONE. Some of the fancied Oz horses just didn't get involved. I suppose some will ask how to end the European dominance - the problem is the Melbourne Cup has made itself attractive by the purse on offer. It's about the same value as the Breeders Cup Classic at Keeneland on Saturday.

As the saying has it "money talks, men walk". The Arc is only worth £1.45 million  but it's Europe's richest race and you can see why Flemington looks attractive to Europeans. Reduce the pot if you want to dissuade the pot-hunters and the likes of Coolmore are quite happy to send serious runners for the kind of purses on offer in the Australian spring which dovetails so well with the European season these days.

TWILIGHT PAYMENT was superb - given a magnificent front-running ride and found that vital couple of lengths off the home turn. He had been hinting at a resurgence after an 8-length romp in the Group 2 Curragh Cup and a decent third in the Irish St Leger. He's rated 115 which means he's a serious horse but as a 7-y-o I'd have said his best days were behind him.

TIGER MOTH ran a fine race in defeat - I'm sure the wide draw didn't help but whether he'd have won with a more direct journey is debatable. Let's not forget he was second in the Irish Derby to SANTIAGO and he was much less experienced than many. I still think in the UK and Ireland he's a 2400m horse and I wonder if he'll be campaigned as such.

Three runs in the Melbourne Cup and a second and two thirds speaks volumes for the consistency of PRINCE OF ARRAN and the training of Charlie Fellowes. He didn't get the best of runs and  might have won another day. Can he come back yet again as an 8-y-o in 2021? I wouldn't rule it out and to put this into context, ENABLE beat him seven lengths at Kempton in September.

ASHRUN finished tenth but beaten only five lengths and I'm sure would have been closer on slower ground.

MASTER OF REALITY couldn't reproduce last year's effort and neither STRATUM ALBION nor DASHING WILLOUGHBY ever figured.

That leaves ANTHONY VAN DYCK and a sense of deja vu for Aidan O'Brien who lost CLIFFS OF MOHER in this two years ago. A terrible tragedy for all connected with the horse and let's not forget he was a Derby winner in 2019 and won the Foy this year. Doubtless he'd have joined the stallion ranks at Coolmore but that's not to be.

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9 minutes ago, Houlahan's Dream said:

Well done mate! I wondered if you had followed through. Nice work. 

Your confidence helped my put him into my trifecta calculations, so managed to snare a portion of a healthy dividend. 

Shame about AVD. I thought Arran was desperately unlucky. The new Red Cadeux!

Thanks for the kind word, my friend. It all worked out on the betting.

I thought PRINCE OF ARRAN was really unlucky - if he'd got out when the jockey wanted, I think he'd have come over the top and snatched it. Between a quarter length last year, three parts this year.

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Another strong card at Flemington tomorrow morning (UK).

PONDUS and TRUE SELF run in the Group 3 Queen Elizabeth Stakes over 2600m. The former was runner up in the Bendigo Cup and a repetition of that would probably be good enough. TRUE SELF was well held in the Caulfield Cup. However, both might struggle with LE DON DE VIE who was just denied in the Geelong Cup and who was rated 6 lbs superior to PONDUS in the UK.

Also in the mix is Moonee Valley Gold Cup runner up SHARED AMBITION.

No European trained runner in the MacKinnon this year. The wonderful Kiwi mare MELODY BELLE comes off a fine win at Hastings last month and this isn't the strongest of renewals. MUGATOO was fourth in the Cox Plate and ARCADIA QUEEN fifth - there was nothing between them then and on the same terms it may be similar. The one thing that might make the difference is the ground - it's quicker than at Moonee Valley and I think ARCADIA QUEEN might be the one to benefit.

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On 10/17/2020 at 10:41 AM, poundforpound said:

Nice analysis 

Ebor & Hardwicke form isn’t really good enough for down here, even in an average handicap 

Coronation Cup, Derby, Stradivarius .... that’s proper form... read what you will into that 

Minor detail but you may find Toffee Tongue is without a block & tackle 

I note too the track is a bit off, should help your NH jumpers with their round uphill actions 

Of ours Verry Elleegant, Master of Wine & Avilius have wet track actions, and dear old Finche, my favourite wannabe horse, he’s not worth a pie if the track cuts up 

Shame because I feel he’s got a good handicap win in him, on decent ground in a fast run race 

This post hasn't aged well, 16th and 20th in Ebor went 1 2 today in QE2  , only two from race came out Pondus two 2nds one race drawn wide impeded beaten nose , True Self unplaced Caulfield Cup bolted up today .

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8 hours ago, Red Rum said:

This post hasn't aged well, 16th and 20th in Ebor went 1 2 today in QE2  , only two from race came out Pondus two 2nds one race drawn wide impeded beaten nose , True Self unplaced Caulfield Cup bolted up today .

TRUE SELF followed up last year's win in this race having once again just missed out on a Melbourne Cup run. Last year he came into the Queen Elizabeth off a fine run behind PRINCE OF ARRAN in the Geelong Cup so you could imagine him being close in the MC.

PONDUS ran well enough in defeat - I just think he wants even further and connections must be hoping they can somehow get him into the Melbourne Cup next year perhaps via one of the "win and you're in" races.

I'm glad I got something right in the MacKinnon - it's basically the Australian version of the Opera or a Champion Stakes for the fillies and mares. I wonder how close ARCADIA QUEEN would have gone in the Cox Plate had the ground been quicker - she's clearly very good.

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