RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
John Clydesdale

Is Belardo better than his sire?

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disclaimer: bred to him, not a shareholder or affiliated.

I think his performance as a racehorse beats a lot standing in both NZ and AU. 
Early days as a sire - Lope de Vega proven upgrader. Danehill and Nijinsky in bottom line should be a bonus.

hes a strong type, perhaps a volksraad type replacement to kick off a mare with an early runner reliably (and more) 

I think he is currently overlooked in the Australian consciousness at the moment, with his achilles heal being proving performance on dry tracks - but who knows. A couple of his group wins were on rain affected tracks so far.

i note the fillies can and do run, making it easier to sell a filly as a breeder. Colts no doubt will follow with one winning at Salisbury and two placing at Riccarton included a colt running 

2nd in the CJC Nobby Bussell Memorial 2YO S., NZ$22500 800m earning NZ$3375

some of us remember Nobby. 
 

it’s hard to argue that three individual stakes winners in a short time In his first year at stud, is nothing short of VERY GOOD  indeed.

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So let's put this stallion into perspective...

Rated 119 at 2 when winning the Dewhurst beating Estidhkaar who ran Muhaarar to a neck 2nd. Muhaarar was the champion sprinter winning the big ones at three. To put that rating into perspective, Probabeel was rated 103 at 2

He ran 4th to Gleneagles in the Irish 2000 Guineas (beaten only 1 1/2) when Gleneagles was in mercurius form.

He ran 2nd to Solow in the Queen Elizabeth (Gp1) over 1600. At that stage Solow had won 13 races from 18 starts including thrashing Almandin by 3 (he won the Melbourne Cup), The Grey Gatsby by 4 1/2 in the Dubai World Cup, Galo Chop by 2 in the Prix d'Ispahan and then Vadamos by 2.

Belardo had finished only 3/4 length behind Solow in the Queen Elizabeth

When winning the Lockhinge (Gp1 mile) Belardo was rated 122. Probabeel was rated 107 when winning the Epsom the other day. When he won the Lockhinge, he beat Euro Charlie who had won the Beverley D stakes (Gp1) and had run 2nd in the Dubai World Cup. 4th in the Lockhinge that year was Limato (champion sprinter) and Toomore who had won the National Stakes (Gp1 at 2) and ran 3rd to Charm Spirit in another Group 1.

So Belardo is a serious horse. His daughter Isabella Giles has won 4 from 5 including the Rockfel (Gp 2) and the Prestige (Gp3) at Goodwood. She's currently rated 109p which means she's on the improve. She's seriously smart. To have 2 group winners and a listed winner from 30 runners is seriously good at this early stage of the game. He was his best at 4 despite winning a group 1 at 2

 

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PROBABEEL (NZ)

Age, Colour, Sex 4 b f (6 Nov 2016) Trainer Jamie Richards, New Zealand

 

Date

Crs/Class/Type

Result

Btn

Type

OR

Dis

Going

Eq

Jockey

ISP

BSP

IP Hi/Lo

IPS

FS%

Tfig

TFR

3 Oct 20

Ran Group 1

1/17

1.00

Turf

G1

8f

Good

 

Kerrin McEvoy

   

/-

     

120

175 day break

11 Apr 20

Ran Group 1

8/14

10

Turf

G1

11.9f

Soft

(b+t)

na

   

-/

     

93

28 Mar 20

Rsh Group 1

2/13

0.20

Turf

G1

9.9f

Soft

 

na

   

-/

     

110

29 Feb 20

Ran Group 1

1/11

0.20

Turf

G1

7f

Good

 

na

   

/-

     

115

147 day break

5 Oct 19

Ran Group 1

2/6

3.25

Turf

G1

8f

Soft

 

na

   

-/

       

182 day break

6 Apr 19

Ran Group 1

5/12

1.80

Turf

G1

7f

Soft

 

na

   

-/

     

110

 

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So what is the logic by franking the form....

 

In the Epsom Probabeel was on 8-4lb.  In the international market Mister Sea Wolf was on 8-11lb, So Mister Sea Wolf was giving her 3kgs. She beat him by 3 1/4 lengths

Mister Sea Wolf was rated 111 when running second (1/2 L) to True Valour (Rated 111) in a listed event in Ireland. True Valour went on to win a Group 3 at the Curragh.

In the Winx stakes, Probabeel beaten (by 5 1/2) by Very Elegant. Very  Elegant recently beat Finche (by a head) in the Turnbull. Finche had won a group 3 in France but had finished 5 off Walgeist and Cracksman in proper group races (both rated 124) in Europe. Finche had been recently beaten by Mister Sea Wolf by 3/4 length in the Chelmsford off level weights.

So how can Probabeel be weighted at 120? Timeform have seriously got it wrong. Doesn't make sense

 

 

 

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Ok so have Timeform for Belardo

Date Crs/Class/Type Result Btn Type OR Dis Going Eq Jockey ISP BSP IP Hi/Lo IPS FS% Tfig TFR
14 Jun 16 Asc C Group 1 2/13 0.50 Turf G1 8f Gd/Sft (h) James Doyle 9/2jf 6.26 -/1.5 4sk 98.7 117 125
couldn't quite peg back Tepin but is in the form of his life and again beat all of those that reopposed from the Lockinge; dwelt, held up, travelled well, steady progress after halfway, challenged over 1f out, ran on; he's having a fine season and could well add another Group 1 to his CV before the season's out.
14 May 16 Nwb C Group 1 1/12 1.00 Turf G1 8f Good (h) Andrea Atzeni 8/1 9.73 16.5/- 4s 100.9 107 125
clearly hadn't been seen to best advantage at Sandown, but a similar ride paid dividends in this rather different situation, at least as good as ever, reunited with Atzeni for the first time since they won the Dewhurst together; dived left leaving stalls, held up, headway over 1f out, switched, stayed on to lead final 50 yds; clearly capable of high-class form, though seen to optimum advantage when one or 2 others possibly weren't and will find it tougher next time.
22 Apr 16 San C1 Group 2 4/7 1.90 Turf G2 8.1f Gd/Sft (h) James Doyle 13/8f 3.4 -/2.8 5 101.3 112 111+
is better judged on previous form as he didn't get the rub of the green, simply caught too far out of his ground in a rather muddling affair; dropped out, crept closer 3f out and ridden soon after, kept on steadily from 2f out without ever looking like catching more enterprisingly-ridden rivals; seems ideally suited by ground softer than good.
2 Apr 16 Don C1 Listed 1/4 2.25 Turf L 8f Heavy (h) James Doyle 8/13f 1.68 2.2/- 3K 103.6 63 113+
stood out on form, runner-up to the dominant miler Solow in last years QEII and didn't need to run up to that level as he made the most of good opportunity, winning for the first time since the 2014 Dewhurst; in touch, travelled strongly, led on bridle over 1f out, quickened clear; the Lockinge is reportedly up next, and in Solow's absence, he's one of several with a chance, and it would be all the greater if the ground is on the easy side.
168 day break
17 Oct 15 Asc C Group 1 2/9 0.75 Turf G1 8f Gd/Sft (h) James Doyle 33/1 90 -/5 4r 101.5 98 123
built on his return to form last time and proved better than ever, again finishing strongly from off the pace, seeing 1m out well; held up, headway over 1f out, kept on well final 1f, nearest at the finish.
9 Oct 15 Nmr C Group 2 3/10 0.70 Turf G2 7f Good (h) William Buick 8/1 9.6 -/8 5r 103.0 109 115+
has found it tough in Group 1 company as a 3-y-o but this was a dip in grade and turned in his best effort of the season, arguably should have won too, as he was left with a lot to do; steadied at the start, patiently ridden, headway over 1f out, best work finish, never nearer; if he's not quite so highly tried in the future then he can win more pattern races no doubt.
5 Sep 15 Hay C Group 1 8/15 7 Turf G1 6f Gd/Sft (b) James Doyle 20/1 27.72 -/22 3 97.9 94 94
limitations exposed against the top milers this year, the drop back in trip and fitting of first-time blinkers appeared more in hope than expectation (needed to be supplemented) and he was never better than mid-division, hanging left under pressure.
16 Aug 15 Dea Group 1 7/9 6 Turf G1 8f Gd/Sft   William Buick 28/1   -/ 2F     110
Group 1s all the way since reappearance but he's never looked up to the job, no upturn here for getting back on similar ground to that on which he won a substandard Dewhurst last year; tracked pace, folded tamely when the pressure was on.
29 Jul 15 Goo C Group 1 7/8 4.82 Turf G1 8f Good (h) William Buick 9/1 19 -/13 3   78 110
after 10 weeks off, matched the form he showed in the Irish Guineas last time, just not up to the task at this level; waited with, took keen hold, shaken up over 2f out, no impression on leaders, no extra final 1f, not persevered with once held.
67 day break
23 May 15 Cur Group 1 4/11 1.75 Turf G1 8f Good (h) James Doyle 12/1 25 -/8.2 5 103.7 110 116+
retried in a hood, wasted no time getting back to form; raced well off the pace, forced wide over 3f out, steady headway, edged left 1f out, effort flattened out; has more options with regards trip now but will need to be well placed to double his tally at this level.
18 Apr 15 Nwb C1 Group 3 8/9 13 Turf G3 7f Gd/Frm   James Doyle 7/1 9.92 -/6 5s§ 101.3 84 78
improved in winning the Dewhurst (with Estidhkaar behind) on his final start at 2 yrs, was surprisingly without the hood he'd worn then, and back on firmer ground, ran no sort of race after 6 months off, looking ill at ease on the surface; slowly into stride, hung left throughout, always behind; lacks the scope of many of these and although softer ground may show him to much better advantage, he has plenty to prove.
183 day break
17 Oct 14 Nmr C Group 1 1/6 2.00 Turf G1 7f Gd/Sft (h) Andrea Atzeni 10/1 13.39 55/- 3k   97 117+
hadn't convinced entirely under pressure in the Champagne Stakes (hung left) and a first-time hood possibly helped in that regard, whilst returning to easy ground was no negative either having already won under similar conditions, and even though this ended up a weaker Dewhurst than normal he has to be credited with plenty of improvement to win a Group 1 so readily, value for more than the 2-length winning margin over Kodi Bear having overcome some trouble; raced in touch against the stand rail, always travelling well, headway when denied a run over 1f out but forced his way through entering the final 1f and was soon in command, quickening clear; he will stay the 1m in next year's 2000 Guineas, which has to be the plan for the spring now, but he lacks physical scope, a compact sort, not obviously a better 3-y-o in the making, and there is a suspicion that this will prove to be his day in the sun, any Group 1 he contests from hereonin sure to be a lot more competitive than this proved.
13 Sep 14 Don C Group 2 4/6 2.45 Turf G2 7f Gd/Frm   Andrea Atzeni 3/1 4.2 -/2.14 2   78 100
impressed with the style of win at Newbury but it's easy to pick holes in that form and he failed to repeat it back up in grade; prominent, challenged over 1f out, hung left, effort flattened out; didn't really shape like it here, but he is bred to be suited by 1m+, and this was a muddling race.
16 Aug 14 Nwb C1 Listed 1/4 3.75 Turf L 7f Gd/Sft   Andrea Atzeni 5/4f 2.46 4/- 2kr   96 114+
over 1f longer trip, progressed as expected on his second attempt out of maiden company, more clued up this time, impressing with the manner of his victory, even if the opposition didn't amount to as much as expected; tracked pace, travelled well, quickened to lead over 1f out, kept on well, won readily; open to further improvement, with a return to Group company on the cards (entered in Champagne Stakes at Doncaster).
10 Jul 14 Nmj C1 Group 2 4/12 3.45 Turf G2 6f Gd/Frm   Andrea Atzeni 5/1 6.45 -/3.55 4k   102 105+
made an excellent impression on debut 2 weeks ago and ran well up in grade whilst leaving the impression the experience will do him the world of good, shaping well with that in mind; waited with, travelled smoothly, good progress 2f out, ran green approaching final 1f, one paced; will prove capable of better than this, no surprise to see him make a bigger impact in a similar event next time.
26 Jun 14 Yar C5 Mdn Stks 1/8 2.25 Turf M 6f Gd/Frm   Andrea Atzeni 8/13f 1.7 1.77/- 3k   94 90+
(€100,000Y: by Lope De Vega: seventh foal: half-brother to 3 winners, including smart 9.7f-13.4f winner Berling (by Montjeu) and useful 1½m-15f winner Smoky Hill (by Galileo): dam, 2-y-o 6f winner, closely related to smart winner up to 7.4f Modeeroch) hardly bred to be that sharp, putting an even better spin on an already impressive debut, the secret seemingly out beforehand (heavily backed, even at odds-on), duly producing a performance that suggested he wouldn't have been entirely out of place at Royal Ascot (where the stable had a 2-y-o winner) had he come to hand slightly sooner; all very smooth, including the way he travelled, waited with, shaken up to get into contention but barely looked to be out of third gear at any stage, coasting through the final 1f; exciting prospect, can be aimed high sooner rather than later if connections wish, as he looks ready and able for Group races, particularly those over 7f, bred as he is.

 

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Nebula, he continues to provide winners up North, but I think the tracks getting too damp will slow them down. Deep tracks will not deliver too much I suspect.

The filly ran well yesterday at Wellington and will improve again I suspect. Athletic types mostly, who should get better into January and Feb, but not sure about getting through to the Sires races. We shall watch with interest, but I like the couple I have in the paddock here at home.

Cheers

John

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