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We're Doomed

Interesting comparison

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Interesting to compare today's Ellerslie meeting with yesterday's Ascot Park meeting. Firm track at Ellerslie and 40 horses that were assured a start scratched. Yesterday at Ascot Park, Heavy track and 3 scratchings out of the fields. Surely that many scratchings on a perfect track would indicate that there are plenty of racing opportunities in the north and trainers pick and choose, whereas down south there are so few opportunities that trainers have to start regardless of track conditions. 

That does seem to indicate that the balance of race licences still isn't quite right between the two islands. Six horses that were safely in a maiden field scratched at Ellerslie and five horses scratched out of a rating 65. That would never happen in the south. There doesn't seem to be any effort to optimise field sizes, whereas all the research seems to indicate that bigger fields generate more betting.

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4 hours ago, shaneMcAlister said:

Rail out 9 metres too, this impacts decisions

That doesn't matter , didn't you listen to the Stipe there this morning, he said the rail has no impact and they can win from anywhere. ;0

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4 hours ago, We're Doomed said:

Interesting to compare today's Ellerslie meeting with yesterday's Ascot Park meeting. Firm track at Ellerslie and 40 horses that were assured a start scratched. Yesterday at Ascot Park, Heavy track and 3 scratchings out of the fields. Surely that many scratchings on a perfect track would indicate that there are plenty of racing opportunities in the north and trainers pick and choose, whereas down south there are so few opportunities that trainers have to start regardless of track conditions. 

That does seem to indicate that the balance of race licences still isn't quite right between the two islands. Six horses that were safely in a maiden field scratched at Ellerslie and five horses scratched out of a rating 65. That would never happen in the south. There doesn't seem to be any effort to optimise field sizes, whereas all the research seems to indicate that bigger fields generate more betting.

The south need more racing days,officials seem to keen to reduce,go figure.

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12 hours ago, Huey said:

That doesn't matter , didn't you listen to the Stipe there this morning, he said the rail has no impact and they can win from anywhere. ;0

No bias there 5 winners led 3 others handy and one from behind. What was the most predominate factor?

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3 hours ago, Crow said:

No bias there 5 winners led 3 others handy and one from behind. What was the most predominate factor?

Did I say anything about bias? 

Despite that youre living in a fantasy world if you don't think the rail out that much has an impact on a horses chances. possibly why so many scratched from the maiden.

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Isn’t tempo the most critical factor in determining where a winner comes from ?

I guess with the rail right out that that increases the circumference of the turn and may discourage runners attacking early from the he back of the field ..... but the length of the straight is arguably slightly longer with the rail out so you should get a fair chance from anywhere shouldn’t you ?

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5 hours ago, Crow said:

No bias there 5 winners led 3 others handy and one from behind. What was the most predominate factor?

Look at Handbrake Camerons ride in the first, what a good ride some said 😆yeah thats if you backed it, what about the poor rides?  How often would you see a 53 second opening 800 on a firm track over 1400m ? Sub 33 600m 🤔 now the rails out and you have 200m of arc before the turn and you need to make ground , if you have the 21 second horse bobs your uncle.... Biggest determining factor in Racing ..The Jockey... second the Track surface and its preperation . Mugs game

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On 9/27/2020 at 12:19 PM, Huey said:

Did I say anything about bias? 

Despite that youre living in a fantasy world if you don't think the rail out that much has an impact on a horses chances. possibly why so many scratched from the maiden.wh

Who said you did read again to try and understand I said no bias there but 5 leaders won and  3 from handy position so if you weren't handy you weren't in the hunt. Obviously all races are tempo related 

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49 minutes ago, Crow said:

Who said you did read again to try and understand I said no bias there but 5 leaders won and  3 from handy position so if you weren't handy you weren't in the hunt. Obviously all races are tempo related 

Fair enough, right you are.

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2 hours ago, Crow said:

Who said you did read again to try and understand I said no bias there but 5 leaders won and  3 from handy position so if you weren't handy you weren't in the hunt. Obviously all races are tempo related 

Tempo related? Or ability related?

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19 hours ago, Gruff said:

You taking the piss 🙄

Quite simply really as even on a bad day for back runners Super Strike was good enough to win impressively from behind so proves the point made.

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