RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
Kingshill

Wootton Bassett to Coolmore

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Hi all, first-time poster here coming out of the gates.

I suspect outcrossed stallions will start to become more common again as stallionmasters are gradually forced by time to finally eek themselves away from the prepotent Northern Dancer crosses that have dominated this generation of stallions. The popularity of the inbred stallion is possibly overstated due to the incomparable success of ND-stallion line and ND-crossed stallions.

I've been waiting to see if NZ's premierships are showing signs of non-ND stallion lines gaining more traction as it gets harder to find stallions with ND on their 4th line. Our champion Savabeel seems to go alright as an outcross coming down the Turn-To stallion line with only a single strain of ND on his 5th line. Pins was similar.

But otherwise it's still ND everywhere for now. Just having a season complete is a good time to look back at the stallions that have just had their third crops out (I always think in NZ you're best to wait to see a stallions 4-year olds to judge them). Again it's ND-line stallions with ND on their 4th line that head the list under various strike rate measures. I've added a column to indicate the stallion line to a stallion I consider dynastically prepotent. 

Rank Stallion Ccode Yof - To Stud Breeding Line – Dynasty Rnrs Wnrs Wins SW(SWins) Earnings Best Performer Winners to Runners Wins to Runners Stakes to Runners
55 Sweet Orange (USA) 2008 - 2014 War Front - Good Vibes Northern Dancer 1961 (4th stallion line) 21 7 10 0(0) $141,640.00 Bergamot - 40,400 33.33% 47.62% $6,744.76
54 Ferlax (NZ) 2009 - 2014 Pentire - Legs Akimbo Northern Dancer 1961 (4) 22 7 10 0(0) $146,395.00 Ladylax - 27,160 31.82% 45.45% $6,654.32
37 Shamexpress (NZ) 2009 - 2014 O'Reilly - Volkrose Northern Dancer 1961 (5) 37 11 16 0(0) $239,400.00 Coventina Bay - 56,250 29.73% 43.24% $6,470.27
128 Fabulous (NZ) 2010 - 2014 High Chaparral - City of Dreams Northern Dancer 1961 (4) 7 1 3 0(0) $44,050.00 Happy Star - 40,600 14.29% 42.86% $6,292.86
136 Dial a Prayer (NZ) 2011 - 2014 Pins - O'Ceirins Angel Pharamond II 1925 (8) 11 2 3 0(0) $26,750.00 Conor O'Ceirin - 17,250 18.18% 27.27% $2,431.82
53 Jakkalberry (IRE) 2006 - 2014 Storming Home - Claba di San Jore Mr. Prospector 1970 (4) 42 7 10 0(0) $179,005.00 El Bee Jack - 49,675 16.67% 23.81% $4,262.02

Bit surprising that the 5th line ND stallion Shamexpress, hailing from a bigger stud and with a good couple of years of performance before now, was edged by others. Albeit there's not much to separate them and the class of 2014 was a small sample size contending with Corona-reduced race volumes.

There's probably some better international evidence out there if ND stallions at a 4th line do better than those with ND at their 5th line. So I don't know if I'm on to something or just getting wistful at the prospect of seeing some divergence in our bloodlines.

Personally I would love to see a big NZ stud pick up a true outcross just to try it out, like the Pitman-trained entire Sensei (would be great to have a last hurrah for the old Godolphin Arabian stallion line too).

 

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Palatable something seems seriously wrong with your figures. A quick check on Arion shows Shamexpress as having first crop figures of 47 runners for 29 winners (62 %) with 4 stakes winners. This would generally be regarded as better than average results.

You should also be aware that this was possibly the weakest group (on average) of stallions to go to stud in living memory.

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2 hours ago, fitzy said:

Palatable something seems seriously wrong with your figures. A quick check on Arion shows Shamexpress as having first crop figures of 47 runners for 29 winners (62 %) with 4 stakes winners. This would generally be regarded as better than average results.

You should also be aware that this was possibly the weakest group (on average) of stallions to go to stud in living memory.

I agree with Fitzy. Your numbers are all wrong. Is this for NZ only and ignores the Australian results? Compare all runners in all countries would be a good starting point.

If you are going to compare data then have a wide data set rather than a first crop that has not finished racing

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