RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
Berri

A sign of things to come

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1 hour ago, drewandjo said:

Has been a  Group 2 since 1987 when it was upgraded from Group 3...think you will find that the stake has halved from last year due to Covid-19, like it has in most racing jurisdictions.

doesn't suit his narative tho

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To be fair, the value of the races at Ascot last week was well down on 2019.

The Prince of Wales's Stakes in 2019 had a first prize of £425,325.  This year it was £148,000

The Gold Cup in 2019 had a first prize of £283,550. This year it was £148,000.

Primarily down to covid-19 and influenced over here by the lack of income for racecourses from betting shop media rights.

In America, the 2019 Belmont Stakes went for £629,992. This year it went for £402,255.

At least Germany still has some Group 1 races in the European pattern - Italy have lost all of theirs.

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I'm not trying to make a square peg fit into a round hole. I wrote what was in my brain without  giving you sufficient inherent knowledge to my thoughts. In status I didn't mean that the group rating had dropped and I should have been clearer about that. We're in Covid era, we're isolated in NZ, we see a drop in stakes (worldwide while everyone gets onto their feet), but here is a 1000 Guineas that is a group 2 race and the quality of horses in it that finished the first 3 placings were bought for little next to nothing. This is not normally the case. There were a couple of British horses at the meeting but the third tier ability wise (third placegetter ran 12 times at 2 for a weak Group 3 win, rated 104). Don't get me wrong, German racing is very good in that no stallions with wind afflictions, known drug use, recognised genetic affliction can stand at stud in Germany. Also their racing is designed to establish the best horse in the competition so handicap races are not the top of the pile.

But German racing lost its way due to government interference and collapsed causing many race tracks to be closed. Broodmare numbers dropped, many races dropped in "official status" and racing stakes dropped. This depressed the number of good horses racing in their bigger races, betting dropped and the spiral was created. In Italy it has gone so far as to have them lose all their group one races.

So when I said get used to this, unless we manage to overhaul our industry the right way, our 1000 Guineas will go the same way. You see, if the best 60 horses race in Australia and not in NZ, then all those races that were put on notice 2 years ago may lose their group ratings. It's because these races have lost those good competitors so the international pattern committee (quite rightly) review them and give notice. If we don't have the quality, we lose the ratings.

 

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1 hour ago, Berri said:

I'm not trying to make a square peg fit into a round hole. I wrote what was in my brain without  giving you sufficient inherent knowledge to my thoughts. In status I didn't mean that the group rating had dropped and I should have been clearer about that. We're in Covid era, we're isolated in NZ, we see a drop in stakes (worldwide while everyone gets onto their feet), but here is a 1000 Guineas that is a group 2 race and the quality of horses in it that finished the first 3 placings were bought for little next to nothing. This is not normally the case. There were a couple of British horses at the meeting but the third tier ability wise (third placegetter ran 12 times at 2 for a weak Group 3 win, rated 104). Don't get me wrong, German racing is very good in that no stallions with wind afflictions, known drug use, recognised genetic affliction can stand at stud in Germany. Also their racing is designed to establish the best horse in the competition so handicap races are not the top of the pile.

But German racing lost its way due to government interference and collapsed causing many race tracks to be closed. Broodmare numbers dropped, many races dropped in "official status" and racing stakes dropped. This depressed the number of good horses racing in their bigger races, betting dropped and the spiral was created. In Italy it has gone so far as to have them lose all their group one races.

So when I said get used to this, unless we manage to overhaul our industry the right way, our 1000 Guineas will go the same way. You see, if the best 60 horses race in Australia and not in NZ, then all those races that were put on notice 2 years ago may lose their group ratings. It's because these races have lost those good competitors so the international pattern committee (quite rightly) review them and give notice. If we don't have the quality, we lose the ratings.

 

So how are you proposing to keep the 60 best horses racing in NZ instead of Aus?

There will be 5 tracks left in 3-5 years time, they are going to destroy the breadth of the  industry, no one will give a rats about it, interest and is dwindling at a pace I don't even think Nostradamus could have predicted , some are just too blind to see it.

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4 hours ago, Berri said:

I'm not trying to make a square peg fit into a round hole. I wrote what was in my brain without  giving you sufficient inherent knowledge to my thoughts. In status I didn't mean that the group rating had dropped and I should have been clearer about that. We're in Covid era, we're isolated in NZ, we see a drop in stakes (worldwide while everyone gets onto their feet), but here is a 1000 Guineas that is a group 2 race and the quality of horses in it that finished the first 3 placings were bought for little next to nothing. This is not normally the case. There were a couple of British horses at the meeting but the third tier ability wise (third placegetter ran 12 times at 2 for a weak Group 3 win, rated 104). Don't get me wrong, German racing is very good in that no stallions with wind afflictions, known drug use, recognised genetic affliction can stand at stud in Germany. Also their racing is designed to establish the best horse in the competition so handicap races are not the top of the pile.

But German racing lost its way due to government interference and collapsed causing many race tracks to be closed. Broodmare numbers dropped, many races dropped in "official status" and racing stakes dropped. This depressed the number of good horses racing in their bigger races, betting dropped and the spiral was created. In Italy it has gone so far as to have them lose all their group one races.

So when I said get used to this, unless we manage to overhaul our industry the right way, our 1000 Guineas will go the same way. You see, if the best 60 horses race in Australia and not in NZ, then all those races that were put on notice 2 years ago may lose their group ratings. It's because these races have lost those good competitors so the international pattern committee (quite rightly) review them and give notice. If we don't have the quality, we lose the ratings.

 

Don't see how we can avoid that happening here in the short term. We don't have the revenue to support the necessary stakes to sustain the status of those races.

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5 hours ago, Huey said:

So how are you proposing to keep the 60 best horses racing in NZ instead of Aus?

There will be 5 tracks left in 3-5 years time, they are going to destroy the breadth of the  industry, no one will give a rats about it, interest and is dwindling at a pace I don't even think Nostradamus could have predicted , some are just too blind to see it.

We need to have a separate funding mechanism that makes sure the stakes for the black type races don't decrease, or that certain horses are shipped in for some of these races so that the ratings don't go down too much while we flail around trying to get better people who know what should be done on these boards. If we don't we will fail.

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19 minutes ago, Berri said:

We need to have a separate funding mechanism that makes sure the stakes for the black type races don't decrease, or that certain horses are shipped in for some of these races so that the ratings don't go down too much while we flail around trying to get better people who know what should be done on these boards. If we don't we will fail.

I agree with that if you can find a source of funding for them. But where? They can no longer be subsidised by the lower end product nor should they have been for a very long time.

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7 minutes ago, Berri said:

We need to have a separate funding mechanism that makes sure the stakes for the black type races don't decrease, or that certain horses are shipped in for some of these races so that the ratings don't go down too much while we flail around trying to get better people who know what should be done on these boards. If we don't we will fail.

Stakes don't quantify the standard of our G1's , quality of horses do , and the quality in our group and listed races has been suspect for many years now . IMO it is now time to get realistic and start to understand our place in the racing world , producers of world class horses , producers of world class racing not so much . If we want to survive as an industry we have to start working with what we have and within our means . One of the reasons we are in this position is because the people charged with leading this industry have for a long time now kept trying to keep up with the JONES and not understanding that domestic product isn't what it used to be . Classic example was JA trying to be the big shot , trying , and failing , to show we could play with the big boys with a flash betting platform . Let's start accepting what we are and then begin to hopefully rebuild into a bigger and better industry over time .

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8 minutes ago, Berri said:

I spent many a time with JA and no matter what I told him, he did what we told him not to. That was because he got the wrong people involved. We have to start by getting rid of Saville, Henry and Kydd. They are not needed on voyage.

They wouldn't listen because they all thought they were Billy Big Bollocks , still do .

The fact that they are still there is a disgrace and shows that there is still no real will in making significant changes .

Names may change but colours it seems not so much .

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24 minutes ago, Berri said:

I spent many a time with JA and no matter what I told him, he did what we told him not to. That was because he got the wrong people involved. We have to start by getting rid of Saville, Henry and Kydd. They are not needed on voyage.

So what did you you tell him?  Does the "we" include p4p? With all due respects even allowing for p4p credentials which are good p4p has been wrong on oh so many issues.

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3 hours ago, Berri said:

We need to have a separate funding mechanism that makes sure the stakes for the black type races don't decrease, or that certain horses are shipped in for some of these races so that the ratings don't go down too much while we flail around trying to get better people who know what should be done on these boards. If we don't we will fail.

Whilst I somewhat agree with what your saying , I don't believe we can get the current ratings right let alone a whole new set of mechanisms and as you've pointed out it wont change without a change in personnel both at RITA/NZTR unfortunately I think we are no hope of that happening in the foreseeable future.

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Intelligence, fortitude and courage are required. Everyone will get the opportunity to get it right and at some point we may get it right. You can't rely on the status quo. It hasn't worked and probably won't work in the future. I said a couple of weeks ago that I was having a go. Financials yet to be signed off and then the nay and yeah sayers can start the debate. Not far away.

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