News from the North(ern) Hemisphere

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Looking towards the weekend, we have the final declarations for the first two days of the Newmarket Cambridgeshire meeting. 

Champagne runner up MONUMENTAL is 11/10 favourite to win the Group 3 over 1400m tomorrow while HARBOUR WIND, recently taken out of the Melbourne Cup, goes in the 3200m Listed.

Friday's Group 2 Rockfel over 1400m for the juvenile fillies has seven runners and Champagne fifth ECSTATIC goes for Ballydoyle - to be honest, she may do a lot better back against the girls than mixin it with the colts but the early support has been for the other O'Brien runner, BELIEVING, ridden by Leger-winning jockey Sean Levey, but her form doesn't look as strong. Favourite, however, is FORMAL with William Buick riding for Cheveley Park. She won nicely at long odds on at Leicester last time and could be anything. 

DUTY FIRST represents the powerful Victorious Racing-Archie Watson-Hollie Doyle team but her form behind ANSHODA at Goodwood doesn't look good enough and the one that interests me at a price is TROIA, who won a maiden on debut at Newbury in mid July. She's by Kingman out of a Shamardal mare and trainer Ed Walker is going well with his juveniles. If there had been eight, I'd have been on each way at 16s but this isn't that kind of race.

The Joel is a Group 2 over 1600m and with all six runners rated between 109 and 112, this is dog racing betting with 3s the front two and the outsider at 13/2. It's a trappy heat - LEAD ARTIST comes back to a mile after chasing home KINROSS at Doncaster a fortnight ago while POKER FACE ran well in the Solonaway at Leopardstown and the slightly easier ground might suit the latter more. ICE MAX is an improving 3-y-o who beat POKER FACE to win the Group 2 Mile at Goodwood at the end of August but the latter has a 5 lb turnround for just a length so it's hard to see the places being confirmed if they both run to the same level on this very different track.

TASK FORCE is held by LEAD ARTIST on earlier Goodwood form while the outsider is DANCING GEMINI who I thought would win the Derby (don't remind me). He was a strong second in the Poulains and then ran sixth at Epsom but I think, as it so often does, the Derby took a lot of the horse and his two runs since have been moderate so I'm happy to overlook him.

The front two in the market look the two and I'm inclined to give POKER FACE the nod though, as the betting suggests, there's little between them.

 

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Another showery and unsettled autumn day in London and the ground at Newmarket was downgraded to Soft after the first race.

Saturday's final declarations are through  Eight go in the Group 1 Cheveley Park for the juvenile fillies over 1200m. The Irish dominate but Aidan O'Brien and Ballydoyle provide only half the story as this is a clash between two unbeaten fillies, both having won their three starts and both Group 1 winners. The Ballydoyle contender is Moyglare winner LAKE VICTORIA but she faces BABOUCHE from the Ger Lyons yard who won the Phoenix against the colts last time.

Neither has run on soft ground so that's another varible but you'd think LAKE VICTORIA might be better suited dropping back in trip to a test in stamina. The French contender DAYLIGHT looks to relish soft ground - indeed the softer the better - and while her Morny third doesn't match up to the standard of the two Irish fillies, her soft ground preference brings her right into this. The other French raider RAYEVKA could be anything - she won a maiden by five lengths last time at Chantilly just ten days ago. I can't see her being up to this very high standard.

The best of the locals looks to be CELANDINE who won the Lowther at York - she was third in the Papin on slow ground and I just wonder if the soft turf will stretch her stamina while similar comments apply to Queen Mary winner LEOVANNI, who was third at York.

This is a strong renewal with Group 1 and Group 2 winners - the soft ground is a variable which makes finding the winner difficult. That said, the French do have a decent record in this race so I'll take DAYLIGHT over LAKE VICTORIA and RAYEVKA.

Eight also run in the Middle Park for the colts over 1200m. This time Aidan O'Brien has a stronger hand with favourite WHISTLEJACKET and second favourite IDES OF MARCH. The favourite has won three of his six races including the Morny last time and we know he goes on soft ground so he's a worthy market leader. IDES OF MARCH is no doubt improving and has won at both Listed and Group 3 level in his last two runs but that looks inferior to WHISTLEJACKET and on the figures he has 7 lbs to find with his stable companion.

SHADOW OF LIGHT was due to run in the Group 2 Mill Reef last weekend but was taken on when the ground went Heavy so the slow ground is a concern. BLACK FORZA won the Richmond at Goodwood but they took him to Keeneland for a valuable race last time and he ran a fair fourth. DEFENCE MINISTER has won both his races but is now in much deeper waters. It's hard to look beyond WHISTLEJACKET who is the only one of these with proven Group 1 form.

Seven go in the Group 2 Royal Lodge over the mile. LUTHER is favourite but I much prefer WIMBLEDON HAWKEYE but the truth is the ground is the imponderable for both of these. Aidan O'Brien runs PUPPET MASTER who won a Galway maiden by four lengths on soft ground last time. This is a big step up but the fact the horse is proven on soft turf makes a lot of appeal. Of the others, ROYAL PLAYWRIGHT makes a lot of appeal - third in the Solario at Sandown last time, he's by Lope de Vega so should like the gorund and the extra trip. It's not a race to play the each way but at 10s he may be worth a small interest.

In Ireland, five go in the Group 2 Beresford over a mile at The Curragh, also for the juveniles. After two modest runs, Aidan O'Brien did something he doesn't often do and put a pair of blinkers on TRINITY COLLEGE who promptly won by 12 lengths at Galway. Sometimes they run really well with blinkers once but don't always reproduce it the second time and to complicate matters further, having won a Listed in Craon in France last time, Aidan has promptly called for blinkers on the unbeaten LAMBOURN and if that brings the kind of improvement we saw in TRINITY COLLEGE, LAMBOURN might be the one. The English raider, WINDLORD, was a five and a length winner of a York maiden last time and shouldn't be underestimated.

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More rain overnight and Newmarket has gone Heavy this morning.

Quite a few withdrawals including TROIA and ECSTATIC from the Rockfel and both LEAD ARTIST and DANCING GEMINI from the Joel. 

Supposed to be a fine day tomorrow.

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A chance to pick up on the first two days at the Newmarket Cambridgeshire Meeting.

The meeting started on Thursday on Good to Soft ground but that was downgraded after the first owing to a heavy shower.

There followed a further 34mm of rain in the form of showers and thunderstorms leaving the ground Heavy on Friday morning but a combination of superbly draining turf and a strong drying wind led to an upgrade to Soft ground for the Friday afternoon card.

On the opening day,  the Group 3 Tattersall over 1400m for the juveniles saw Oisin Murphy make every yard up the stands rail on THE WACO KID to hold off DIEGO VENTURA and the Ballydoyle representative MONUMENTAL who was backed in to 5/4 favourite but was well held in third. THE WACO KID had himself been beaten In Group 2 and Group 3 races but perhaps the slower ground brought his stamina into play. He's by Mehmas, who went on the soft, out of an unraced Galileo mare.

The 3200m Rose Bowl Listed saw a convincing win for AL NAYYIR who came home by eight lengths from HARBOUR WIND. The winner is a 6-y-o but this wa sonly his 21st outing but go back far enough and he's got decent Group form. He returned after a long break to follow VAUBAN home in the Lonsdale at York and while he hasn't always followed up a good run with another good run, this was the exception and he's 5/1 for the Long Distance Race on Champions Day following this success.

The heavy overnight rain led to a spate of withdrawals from Friday's card and both the Group 2 races were affected. The Rockfel over 1400m for the juvenile fillies was reduced to just five and Ryan Moore switched from the withdrawn ECSTATIC to BUBBLING and the filly was backed in to 6/4 to beat the Sir Michael Stoute trained FORMAL and the money, as it often does, spoke volumes. Despite not at time travelling that well, BUBBLING found plenty for pleasure and showed her unlucky defeat at Leopardstown a fortnight ago was just that. 

FORMAL finished a well beaten fourth and that bubble was burst. BUBBLING, on the other hand, might come back to the Fillies Mile in a fortnight and there's little doubt Aidan O'Brien has an exceptional group of juvenile fillies this year.

The Joel was reduced to just four and POKER FACE, who had plenty of form on soft ground, was backed in to be favourite but this race produced a minor upset as PRAGUE, who was once in the care of Aidan O'Brien though he never raced while at Ballydoyle, scored an impressive win. A midrace move by Danny Tudhope to switch the horse out wide towards the centre and move forward looked curious but in hindsight it was decisive and POKER FACE ended up beaten nearly four lengths. PRAGUE was cut to 7/1 for the Queen Elizabeth II on Champions Day - a bit of an over reaction as it may be a very easy Group 2 he's won and he'll be in with the top milers at Ascot.

Further announcements from Newmarket on Friday indicated both BLUESTOCKING and SUNRAY would head for next weekend's Arc - to be honest, the British challenge isn't looking that strong currently and the Vermeille winner would have claims (12/1 with the bookies). SUNRAY is no mug and 66/1 with the bookies is a big price for a horse placed in the Irish Derby and the English Leger.

[Ohokaman 6,127]

Auguste Rodin having his final race in the Japan Cup apparently Stodge. Has been an exceptional racehorse.

Off to Coolmore in 2025.

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3 hours ago, Ohokaman said:

Auguste Rodin having his final race in the Japan Cup apparently Stodge. Has been an exceptional racehorse.

Off to Coolmore in 2025.

Indeed - he's still in the Arc but would only run if the ground was quick. The current report from France Galop says it is Tres Souple a Souple (4.0) which translates to Soft, Heavy in places and a penetrometer reading of 4.0 suggests it's pretty deep (the French, as you might expect, use the reverse scale from 1 to 5 so the nearer to 5 the heavier the ground). 

We had a lot of rain overnight in southern England (today's meetings at Windsor and Newton Abbot have both been abandoned) so I suspect it's not going to dry out too quick.

By contrast, the ground at Fuchu racecourse in Tokyo is nearly always Firm and AUGUSTE RODIN will love that. There's a reason and a symmetry for this being his final race rather than say the Breeders Cup Turf (which he won last year). Coolmore have never won the Japan Cup - no European horse has since 2005 - and it would be a big push for them in the Japanese racing industry to win their most presitigous international race.

Second, AUGUSTE RODIN is by the late Deep Impact who, along with his sire, Sunday Silence, kickstarted the Japanese breeding and racing revival. The dam is of course Rhododendron, a daughter of Galileo, so for a son of Deep Impact to win in Japan would be a big selling point for prospective Japanese broodmares. 

AUGUSTE RODIN will, as you say, stand at Coolmore in 2025 - he won't have long after he stops racing at the end of November to be prepared for stallion duties and I can only imagine what the fee is going to be. Trying to find a successor to Galileo is probably impossible - he was such a dominant force. I suspect Coolmore see AUGUSTE RODIN as that successor but time will tell, it always does. If, however, he ends his career having been the first horse to win the English Derby, Breeders Cup and Japan Cup, well, that's as good a CV as you could wish.

The other option in the background is CITY OF TROY and were he to become the first horse to win the English Derby and the Breeders Cup Classic, he would be another huge draw but I suspect his market is more likely to be in North America but Coolmore are truly global in their scope and aspiration and I'd be wondering if we'll see a better quality of stallion shuttling down to your neck of the woods in 2025 - interesting times.

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A little bit of housekeeping ahead of a huge weekend approaching up here.

On Saturday we have the Sun Chariot at Newmarket for the fillies and mares over 1600m while at Longchamp it's the first day of the two day Arc Weekend. The opening day has the two Group 1 races for the stayers - the Royallieu (promoted this year) over 2800m and the Cadran over 4000m. The Chaudenay, Dollar and Daniel Wildenstein are the supporting Group 2 races.

Sunday sees a stellar card in Paris - arguably the strongest single day's racing in the Northern Hemisphere of the year. Six Group 1 races (seven if you count the Arabian race which I don't). Apart from the Arc de Triomphe itself, we have the Marcel Boussac and the Jean-Luc Lagardere for the juveniles, the Abbaye for the sprinters, the Opera for the fillies and mares over 2000m and the Foret, Europe's only Group 1 over 1400m for the older horses.

More on all these races from midweek onwards as the European season nears its climax.

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Saturday’s card at Newmarket took place on a stunning autumn afternoon – the weather in complete contrast to the showers and wind of the previous two days. The sunshine and drying breeze meant the ground was upgraded to Soft, Good to Soft in places, remarkable given the 34mm of rain the track had taken during the meeting and testament to the extraordinary surface which drains better than almost anywhere else.

Two Group 1 races for the juveniles were the highlight of an eight-race card and the first was the Cheveley Park for the fillies over 1200m. A strong renewal featuring the winners of the Phoenix (BABOUCHE) and the Moyglare (LAKE VICTORIA) with the French challenger DAYLIGHT boasting a third place in the Morny. The home challenge looked weak in comparison with Queen Mary winner LEOVANNI perhaps the best.

The money came strongly for LAKE VICTORIA who was supported into 6/4 from early 9/4.

The money was once again spot on and a stunning performance by LAKE VICTORIA who, if anything, bettered her Moyglare performance. She was able to quicken off the dead ground and powered up the hill to win by three lengths. DAYLIGHT ran well to snatch second close home from outsider ARABIAN DUSK who put up a career best performance.

The ground had been the concern for BABOUCHE but in truth she was disappointing – perhaps she’s done enough for the year. LEOVANNI ran last and clearly, she’s all speed and quick ground.

LAKE VICTORIA is 9/4 for the Fillies Mile and may well return to Newmarket for the third time this year – irrespective of what happens in the Marcel Boussac this weekend, if LAKE VICTORIA wins a third juvenile Group 1, she’ll have a big claim to be top of the juvenile filly tree.

DAYLIGHT ran on well – she’s by the first season sire Earthlight who has made a quiet start generally so she is his standard bearer. He got a mile at three as did the dam so she could well be a Pouliches contender especially if it’s soft ground in Paris next May.

The Middle Park over 1200m was the equivalent race for the juvenile colts and the money came for WHISTLEJACKET who was the sole O’Brien runner following the late defection of IDES OF MARCH. He went off 4/5 with the Godolphin challenger SHADOW OF LIGHT at 3s.

An impressive performance by SHADOW OF LIGHT who took the field apart to win by four lengths from WHISTLEJACKET whose second placed effort looked laboured while 40/1 DASH DIZZY, whose le previous effort had been a win in a small maiden at Kempton, finished third.

This leaves me having doubts about the form – you could argue SHADOW OF LIGHT was unlucky not to win the Gimcrack as he raced nearer the stands side but the winner COOL HOOF LUKE hasn’t run since and it may well be both the first and second from the Gimcrack will be Commonwealth Cup types next year rather than Guineas runners. It may be DASH DIZZY who turns up back over the Rowley Mile next spring.

The supporting Group 2 was the Royal Lodge over the 1600m – this was once a serious trial for the following season’s Derby but has more recently produced 1600-2000m types. This didn’t look the strongest renewal and four of the six runners clustered at the head of the market. Late money for the Ballydoyle challenge PUPPET MASTER saw him as 3/1 joint favourite with the lightly raced ANGELO BUONAROTTI who had made his debut in the Coventry at Ascot, running ninth, and had then been off the track before winning the Convivial at York, the season’s most valuable maiden.

WIMBLEDON HAWKEYE was a first Group 2 runner for James Owen who was previously better known as a jumps trainer but now has a dual licence while LUTHER had impressed when winning at Haydock but for whom this was a big step up in grade.

In a race of changing fortunes, it was WIMBLEDON HAWKEYE who prevailed holding the late challenge of ROYAL PLAYRIGHT with ANGELO BUONAROTTI claiming third on the post just in front of PUPPET MASTER.

The main disappointment was LUTHER who never got involved – Ryan Moore was soon earning his fee on PUPPET MASTER but the colt responded and came to challenge at the foot of the hill but didn’t get home. ANGELO BUONAROTTI did all his best work late on and he’s bred to be better over 2000m and remains a colt of promise.

ROYAL PLAYRIGHT was prominent throughout and while not being able to live with the winner’s initial acceleration, was closing again on the line and this was an effort full of promise. He’s a half to Nassau runner up SEE THE FIRE and I look forward to seeing him over 2000m next year.

The winner carried the colours of the Gredley family and looks a middle-distance prospect for next year – he’s by Kameko out of a mare owned by the family, Eva Maria, who stayed 2400m.

The first three home all look nice types for the 2000m races and indeed further next season.

Three impressive winners in the principal races but we still have Future Champions Day in a fortnight which will give us more clues about the 2-y-o pecking order for both the colts and fillies.

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A brief mention for the Group 2 Beresford at The Curragh over 1609m which took place last Saturday.

Aidan O'Brien has won it 21 times since 1996 but he hasn't won it since LUXEMBOURG (who is in the Arc on Sunday) obliged in 2021 and his losing streak in the race goes on as his two contenders filled the last two places in the five runner renewal.

A gamble on the Andrew Balding trained WINDLORD came unstuck as the horse's inexperience probably did him no favours and it was Jessica Harrington's HOTAZHELL who, despite being under pressure from some way out,  ran on strongly to lead in the final 100m and was going away at the finish to win by three quarters of a length.

He's 16s for the Dewhurst over 1400m but only 5s for the Futurity at Doncaster at the end of October.

TENNESSEE STUD and WINDLORD took the minor homours.

 

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On to a huge weekend and we've got some early entries for both Saturday and Sunday.

At Newmarket, the ground remains Soft and eleven have been entered for the Sun Chariot for the fillies and mares over 1609m. INSPIRAL hasn't been seen since nearly four lengths behind CHARYN in the Marois at Deauville but she's back against her own gender in a way she won easily last year. This could be a stronger race - John Gosden has also entered NASHWA who hasn't been seen since the Sheema Classic on World Cup night but we know she's a very good type more perhaps over 2000m and her close third to AUGUSTE RODIN in the 2023 Irish Champion stands as a fine effort.

TAMFANA came back to win a Group 3 at Sandown last time after a fourth to Arc favourite SOSIE in the Grand Prix de Paris. SEE THE FIRE was runner up in the Nassau and is another who drops back in trip.

At Longchamp, eight have been entered in the 4000m Cadran. KYPRIOS has been the dominant force in the staying races and had few problems winning the Irish Leger last time. He takes on the best current French stayer, DOUBLE MAJOR, who won the Kergorlay at Deauville by seven lengths last time.

16 are in the Royallieu over 2800m for the fillies and mares. It doesn't look a strong field for the first renewal of this race as a Group 1 though there are a good number of British and Iriah raiders including Lillie Langtry winner TERM OF ENDEARMENT.

ILLINOIS is among eleven in the Chaudenay over 3000m for the 3-y-o. 

18 stand in Sunday's Arc de Triomphe over 2400m and carrying a first prize of some £2.5 million though I expect BLUESTOCKING to be supplemented tomorrow morning. It's a quality field as you might expect and while the Longchamp ground remains Soft, Heavy in places, there seems a general agreement it will dry a little before the weekend.

Current UK betting has SOSIE at 7/2. LOOK DE VEGA, who apparently worked really well at Chantilly yesterday morning, is 9/2. LOS ANGELES and SHIN EMPEROR are 6s with AL RIFFA and BLUESTOCKING at 10s. 

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Another day nearer Arc weekend - Ascot's round course is waterlogged after the recent deluges but course officials seem confident their two day fixture at the weekend will survive given 48 hours of dry weather.

Newmarket remains Soft while Longchamp has upgraded a notch to a reading of 3.8 which is still soft or very soft.

We now have the entries for all the Sunday Group 1 races at Longchamp. The card opens with the Marcel Boussac for the juvenile fillies over 1609m. Aidan O'Brien has four of the thirteen entries including Moyglare failure BEDTIME STORY but the unbeaten Aumale winner ZARIGANA from the Graffard stable is 8/11 with the English bookmakers. No British runners in this race.

The Jean Luc Lagardere over 1400m for the juvenile colts looks open - FIELD OF GOLD represents the Gosdens but he only won at Group 3 level while Aidan O'Brien's HENRI MATISSE was beaten in the National at Group 1 level three weeks ago. Coventry winner RASHABAR was second to WHISTLEJACKET in the Morny last time. The unbeaten MISUNDERSTOOD, a seon of everyone's favourite stallion on here, Hello Youmzain, won the Chenes by four lengths last time and is in the "could be anything" file.

The Abbaye over 1000m is often won by British or Irish challengers and once again the visitors appear to dominate and round 3 of BRADSELL vs BELIEVING with the former successful in both the Nunthorpe and the Flying Five though with the caveat on both occasions he looked to be on the "favoured" side of the track. NO HALF MEASURES beat RELIEF RALLY in a Group 3 at Newbury but that doesn't look good enough at this stage.

The Arc de Triomphe currently has 18 runners with BLUESTOCKING supplemented this morning. LOOK DE VEGA and SOSIE are now 4/1 joint favourites.

The Opera for the fillies and mares over 2000m has a very strong entry including Irish 1000 Guineas winner FALLEN ANGEL, Diane winner SPARKLING PLENTY and Yorkshire Oaks heroine CONTENT but YLANG YLANG is the current 3/1 favourite in Britain.

Finally, the Foret over 1400m has 17 entries and recent Doncaster winner and last year's runner up in this, KINROSS, is 2/1 favourite to go one better with RAMATUELLE at 100/30.

Final declarations for these on Friday. 

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Today's news is better on the weather front - Ascot will race albeit on Heavy ground but no change in the Longchamp going which is still Soft.

The final declarations are through for Saturday's races. At Newmarket, where the ground has been upgraded to Soft, Good to Soft in places, just six go in the Group 1 Sun Chariot for the fillies and mares over 1609m. Five of the field are rated between 113 and 120 so this is a proper championship race.

NASHWA is top rated - she won the Diane and the Nassau in 2022 and was a five length winner of the Falmouth last year after which she was a close third to AUGUSTE RODIN in the Irish Champion Stakes. On those bits of form, she's take all the beating but she was beaten a long way in the Queen Elizabeth II on Champions Day last year and hasn't been seen since a midfield finish in the Dubai Turf at Meydan over six months ago. To get her back to winning this class of race would be a huge training achievement by the Gosdens but she comes here fresh.

INSPIRAL, her stable companion, is probably the better known miler and slammed MQSE DE SEVIGNE by nearly four lengths in this last year and then beat Warm Heart in the Filly & Mare Turf at the Breeders Cup. After a slightly disappointing fourth in the Lockinge, she was stepped back up to 2000m but was sixth in the Prince of Wales at Ascot after which it was back to a straight mile and a third in the Marois. Back against her own gender, she must have a huge chance but she seems a bit betwixt and between as we say up here - she's not good enough to win top races at either 1600m or 2000m at the moment.

TAMFANA is a 3-y-o filly but she only gets 3 lbs from the older fillies. She was a strong finishing fourth to ELMALKA in the English 1000 Guineas, then third in the Diane and fourth in the Grand Prix de Paris behind SOSIE. Back to a mile in Group 3 company at Sandown, she won well but back up to the top table and I'm not convinced.

SEE THE FIRE was twelfth in the English 1000 Guineas, fifth in the Coronation, fourth in the Eclipse and second in the Nassau suggesting perhaps 1600m might be a tad sharp now.

ELMALKA is fascinating and although she won the English 1000 Guineas, she was fourth in the Coronation (just in front of SEE THE FIRE) and the Nassau (just behind SEE THE FIRE). I like her back to the mile on the course she won over in the spring and back off a break I think she'll go close especially if the ground continues to dry.

This is a fascinating little contest - NASHWA and ELMALKA come here off breaks and that's important at the end of a long season. I'd love to see NASHWA regain the winning thread and I take her over ELMALKA but this is a race to savour and I should note all five mentioned will one day be very popular broodmares.

At Longchamp, just five stand in the 4000m Cadran known as the "French Gold Cup". KYPRIOS won this by 20 lengths in 2022 and he has returned this year with dominant displays in the Gold Cup, Goodwood Cup and Irish St Leger. I'm not sure he's quite then horse he was before his illness but he's still pretty good. TRUESHAN won this in 2021 and 2023 and we know he loves soft turf. He was eight lengths behind KYPRIOS at Goodwood and was second in the Doncaster Cup. On form, he shouldn't beat KYPRIOS but he will battle.

DOUBLE MAJOR is the best French stayer currently - last autumn he won the Chaudenay and was highly impressive in the Royal Oak winning by seven lengths. He was back to form in the Kergorlay last time but the 4000m trip is 800m further than he was ever gone against two proven strong Group 1 stayers from England and Ireland.

I can't oppose KYPRIOS though I expect a strong effort from TRUESHAN.

By contrast, 16 line up in the 2800m Royallieu for the fillies and mares and they go 4/1 the field which tells you plenty. TERM OF ENDEARMENT heads the market following her win in the Lillie Langtry at Goodwood and she could well be up to this. MISTRAL STAR ran well when trained in France last season but she seems better on faster ground - her Yorkshire Oaks fourth is a solid bit of form but was on fast ground.

When MISTRAL STAR won a Listed at Newmarket, ONE EVENING was nine lengths back in sixth but the latter ran much better on soft ground at Deauville finishing third to AVENTURE in the Pomone - the latter was second in the Vermeille. An extra 400m could well be helpful and she's also lightly raced.

SEA THEME beat ONE EVENING a head in the 2023 Galtres and the former's recent fifth in the Yorkshire Oaks - just behind MISTRAL STAR - reads well but again I've a niggle on the ground.

RUE BOISSONADE was fourth in this and the Vermeille last year and while she won well at Saint Cloud last time, you're taking a chance on her being fully back to her best but if she were 12s is a big each way play.

RIVER OF STARS has twice finished behind TERM OF ENDEARMENT this year and again the ground may not be ideal.

The three Aidan O'Brien contenders, LILY STAR, PORT FAIRY and GRATEFUL all look to have plenty to do.

ONE EVENING would be my tentative selection with an each way play on RUE BOISSONADE.

There are three Group 2 races in support - eight go in the Chaudenay over 3000m for which Leger runner up ILLINOIS is 1/3 and his Group 1 form looks far superior to the French 3-y-o who all bring Group 3 form to the table - there's little between COLOMBUS and TRAFALGAR SQUARE but ILLINOIS is a Group 2 winner and runner up in the Grand Prix de Paris (just two lengths behind strong Arc contender SOSIE).

The only British raider in the Daniel Wildenstein over 1609m is CICERO'S GIFT but he's a decent 12/1 shot given he was strong form albeit in handicap company on soft ground. However, ALCANTOR was third in the Poulains and sixth in the Jockey Club and that will probably be good enough.

The British have four of the seven runners in the 1800m Dollar - ANMAAT doesn't race very often but in may 2023 he won the Group 1 Ispahan over the course and distance. Returning off another long break he won a Group 3 at Haydock in September and if he's on form will be hard to beat. The ground has gone against JAYAREBE whose form against ECONOMICS looked even better after the Irish Champion and I'm more interested in MY PROSPERO who won the Group 3 Winter Hill at Windsor on soft ground last time. 

However, the German raider CALIF brings solid form having won the Bayerisches Zuchtrennen in Munich last time beating FANTASTIC MOON who as we know won the Grosser Preis von Baden last month. CALIF's previous run in a French Group 3 wouldn't be good enough but the German form certainly entitles him to some respect.

Selections - Saturday:

NEWMARKET - Sun Chariot - NASHWA

LONGCHAMP - Chaudenay - ILLINOIS

LONGCHAMP - Royallieu - ONE EVENING (win), RUE BOISSONADE (each way)

LONGCHAMP - Cadran - KYPRIOS

LONGCHAMP - Daniel Wildenstein - ALCANTOR (win), CICERO'S GIFT (each way)

LONGCHAMP - Dollar - MY PROSPERO

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To help me out, there was an early final declaration on the Arc de Triomphe and we know there will be 16 runners in Europe's richest and most prestigious race. With a prize fund of nearly £5 million and a first prize of nearly £2.85 million, this is a serious horse race.

Eight 3-y-o take on eight older horses so I'll break up the analysis in generational terms.

Three Year Olds:

Five go from France and one each from England, Ireland and Japan and the 3-y-o dominate at the head of the betting market.

SOSIE was favourite after winning the Grand Prix de Paris and confirmed that status by winning the Niel having Jockey Club winner LOOK DE VEGA back in third. We know SOSIE gets the trip well - I'm less convinced about LOOK DE VEGA but the latter has apparently sparkled in his work and it can be the case the French trainers leave a little to work on after the summer break. LOOK DE VEGA and SOSIE are 7/2 joint favourites and both have done well from the draw with the former in eight and the latter in five.

I've been a SOSIE fan for a while and I think he will beat LOOK DE VEGA again.

LOS ANGELES is a class act having run third in the English Derby and then won the Irish Derby (beating SUNWAY) and the Voltigeur at York. Instead of the Leger, the "lads" ran him in the Irish Champion where he was a strong finishing fourth, just a length and a quarter behind ECONOMICS and alongide SHIN EMPEROR. Moving back up in trip will help a lot - the only niggle for me is the ground though he did win the Criterium de Saint Cloud last autumn on soft ground.

SHIN EMPEROR has never run on anything as soft as this and it's always a concern with Japanese runners. He was third in the Japanese Derby - the favourite and runner up JUSTIN MILANO hasn't been out since - but the ground is a big concern.

DELIUS was two and a quarter lengths behind SOSIE in the Grand Prix de Paris and a length and a half behind in the Niel so 10/1 looks a big each way price. It's hard to see why he should finally get past SOSIE but he has a good draw in seven. 

AVENTURE has a big chance - runner up in the Diane, she won the Pomone before chasing home BLUESTOCKING in the Vermeille. She has a nice draw and could still be improving and 16/1 is an almost irresistible each way play.,

SUNWAY has been done no favours by the draw but French born English based trainer David Menuisier has always believed in the horse and he has run some huge races in defeat - second in the Irish Derby, fourth in the King George and third in the English Leger. He seems to find all the trouble going and both the ground and draw are negatives. 

SURVIE was second in the Diane and runner up in the Mallerer but was a well held seventh in the Vermeille and has plenty to do.

The Older Horses:

AL RIFFA chased home CITY OF TROY in the Eclipse at Sandown and slammed NARRATIVO five lengths in the Grosser Preis von Berlin last time but 2400m on soft turf is an unknown and I think he was flattered by the Sandown run .

BLUESTOCKING has a solid chance - winner of the Irish Pretty Polly and the Vermeille but she was found out over 2000m against the colts in th Juddmonte and I'm not convinced she'll be good enough against the younger colts and fillies even though she beat AVENTURE last time. She does have a nice draw.

MQSE DE SEVIGNE has won the Ispahan, the Rothschild and the Jean Romanet in her last three runs but she's unproven at the trip and is drawn out in the Bois de Boulogne at 16. 

FANTASTIC MOON is the German challenger and was eleventh in this last year and for all he's got excellent form in Germany winning the Grosser Preis von Baden last time, this is a lot tougher and on his runs in France, he's not going to emulate TORQUATOR TASSO.

CONTINUOUS won the English Leger last year and then came on to the Arc and finished fifth but I think that took a lot of the horse as he was well held in the Hardwicke at Ascot and was only third in the Foy last time - the ground may not suit either.

ZARAKEM ran a blinder behind AUGUSTE RODIN in the Prince of Wales at Ascot but was disappointing in the Juddmonte - again, trip and ground don't look positives.

SEVENNA'S KNIGHT is a decent French stayer and won both the Vicomtesse Vigier and the Gladiateur this season but was beaten a long way in the Grand Prix de Saint Cloud and doesn't look good enough.

HAYA ZARK won the Ganay in the spring and was third to MQSE DE SEVIGNE in the Ispahan. He's a 2000m horse at best.

Summary:

A cracking race as you would expect with almost every horse a Group 1 winner.

The 3-y-o look better on paper as is often the case and the 3-y-o fillies get 10 lbs from the older colts and 4 lbs from the 3-y-o colts.

I like SOSIE and LOS ANGELES from the 3-y-o while DELIUS should go close and AVENTURE is a screaming each way play at 16s.