News from the North(ern) Hemisphere

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Time to review the jumps action in England and Ireland on Saturday.

A day of small fields and decent ground for the time of year. At Wetherby, AHOY SENOR enjoyed a nice gallop round in the Towton which told us very little. I do think his jumping will be put under a lot more pressure at Cheltenham and while connections are considering giving him a tilt at the Gold Cup, I just can't see it - it takes an exceptional novice or a weak division..

At Sandown, the Grade 1 Scilly Isles over 4000m looked a match between L'HOMME PRESSE and PIC D'ORHY:

Scilly Isles Chase: 

This was another hugely impressive performance by L'HOMME PRESSE and I suppose the question is whether connections will take on GALOPIN DES CHAMPS in the 4000m chase or step up to 4800m. Either way, he's clearly the best the home team have at 4000m and he's 5/1 for the Turner Chase (which used to be the Golden Miller). PIC D'ORHY emptied quickly from two out and was exhausted crossing the line.

Day 1 of the Dublin Racing Festival and the anticipated clash between the battalions of Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott. Four Grade 1 races on the card :

Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Novices Hurdle: 

First blood to team Mullins with MINELLA COCOONER proving too strong for the Elliott pair of MINELLA CROONER and HOLLOW GAMES. The front three all look decent but whether the plan will be the Ballymore or the Albert Bartlett remains to be seen - the winner is 8/1 for both races.

The Spring Juvenile Hurdle for the 4-y-o over 3200m saw VAUBAN put up a hugely impressive performance to see off FIL DOR. and he is now 9/4 joint favourite with PIED PIPER for the Triumph. I know PIED PIPER won when they met at Punchestown and was very good at Cheltenham last week but this was a stronger race and VAUBAN jumped so well and galloped so powerfully I can't believe, come Cheltenham, he won't reverse the places.

So 2-0 to Mullins and on to the Irish Arkle over 3200m for the speedy novice chasers.

Irish Arkle Novices Chase: 

A real thriller but it ended up 3-0 to Mullins as BLUE LORD capitalised on a poor last fence jump by RIVIERE D'ETEL to take the prize. The second was getting 9 lbs but her jumping isn't as good as the winner's and at Cheltenham, as we know, jumping is everything. BLUE LORD is 3/1 joint favourite with Henry VIII winner EDWARDSTONE and this might be one of those which stays at home this year.

The feature of the Saturday card was the Irish Gold Cup which featured last year's Cheltenham hero MINELLA INDO, the Down Royal winner FRODON and past winners of this race in the forms of KEMBOY and DELTA WORK.  

Irish Gold Cup: 

A new player enters the Gold Cup puzzle as CONFLATED, backed overnight from 33s to 18s, did this really well. He's won a handicap at Navan over 4000m last time and that had earned him a rating of 157 but he looked outclassed on the figures. Nonetheless, the horse didn't know that and he put up an exemplary round of jumping to win this by six and a half lengths. He's now 10s for the Gold Cup and 50s for the National which seems a strange price but there you go. The test will be the end-to-end gallop and the extra 500m of the Cheltenham hill.

Was this a fluke? MINELLA INDO ran on well to hold second from JANIDIL and you could argue this was a much better effort from last year's Gold Cup winner who we know will have no issues with the trip. KEMBOY and FRODON went from the front and both paid the penalty while race favourite ASTERION FORLONGE didn't get home as I suspected was the case at Kempton. He's a 4000m horse and not a Gold Cup horse. A PLUS TARD is 10/3 favourite for the Gold Cup with GALVIN and MINELLA INDO at 4s which tells us it's a wide open renewal and maybe, just maybe, not quite as good as in recent years. 

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I'll wrap up the Dublin Racing Festival in my next ramblings but Friday sees the weekly Carnival meting at Meydan.

Six races on Dirt and Turf featuring the UAE 2000 Guineas but the feature Group 2 is the Singspiel over 1800m on the grass. 

ROYAL FLEET, ART DU VAL and LORD GLITTERS were second, third and fourth in the equivalent Al Rashidiya over the same distance three weeks ago. ART DU VAL may be the one to come out best but there won't be much between them. 

William Buick hasn't chosen ART DU VAL but ZAKOUSKI who won this race last year. After a long break, he scored at Newmarket in Listed company at the end of October and was well fancied for the Bahrain International at Sakhir but ran poorly behind LORD GLITTERS. I presume ZAKOUSKI has been working well and Buick's choice is probably significant. 

COURT HOUSE was second in this to ZAKOUSKI last year and then ran a close fifth to LORD GLITTERS in the Jebel Hatta. he was outclassed in the Dubai Turf but brings some decent form and will be a big price.

In the UK, two Grade 2 races at Newbury and one at Warwick on Saturday as the Cheltenham build up continues. I'll talk more about those later in the week.

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Last Sunday saw the second and final day of the Dublin Racing Festival. Overnight rain had left the ground Yielding, Yielding to Soft in places.

Four Grade 1 races and each had an odds on favourite.

The first was the 4300m Ladbrokes Chase for the intermediate novices. GALOPIN DES CHAMPS had put up a stunning performance in a maiden chase at the Christmas Festival and was widely expected to follow up being backed in to 4/9:

Ladbrokes Novices Chase: 

He did it well but he didn't impress me for all he was too good for some decent rivals. I thought he took a few chances and his jumping was what we call "novicey". Sometimes when you aren't meeting a fence on a stride to stand off, a horse has to learn to be careful and "pop" with a short stride but GALOPIN DES CHAMPS seems to want to attack every fence and stood off a long way. If he does that at Cheltenham, he'll end up on the floor.

He's 8/11 for the staying novice championship race and Evens for the intermediate but those odds look plenty skinny enough as they were for ENVOI ALLEN this time last year.

On then to the 3200m Dublin Chase, the championship race for the speed chasers. CHACUN POUR SOI was bidding for his third win in the race and was on a bit of a recovery mission after flopping in the Tingle Creek at Sandown behind GREANETEEN.

Dublin Chase: 

CHACUN POUR SOI looked back to his imperious best though aided by a distinctly lacklustre performance from GREANETEEN. As to whether he can cope with SHISHKIN and ENERGUMENE at Cheltenham, I'm far from convinced. CHACUN POUR SOI's record in England is much less flattering than his Irish performances and perhaps Punchestown will be his opportunity.

He's 6/1 for the Champion Chase but only 5s for the 4000m Ryanair and it might be a shrewd move to send him up in trip where they'll go a step slower.

The Irish Champion Hurdle was the afternoon's feature and saw another horse bidding for a three-timer in the form of Champion Hurdler winner HONEYSUCKLE who, having won her last thirteen races, was 1/5 favourite to make it no.14:

Irish Champion Hurdle: 

No real concerns for the champion as she makes it 14 in a row. ZANAHIYR's mistake at the first ended his chance but they were all playing for places. She's 4/9 for the Champion at Cheltenham and for many she will be the banker of the week and it's hard to see what's going to stop her.

Finally, we had the Novice hurdle championship over 3200m. In what looks like a very strong year for novice hurdlers on both sides of the Irish Sea, last year's Champion Bumper third, SIR GERHARD, had made a very pleasing introduction to hurdling at Leopardstown over Christmas.

Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle: 

A bit like GALOPIN DES CHAMPS earlier, I thought there were a couple of indifferent jumps and I also wonder if he really has the speed for a Supreme Novices Hurdle where they will go much faster from the start. Yes, his Bumper form suggests stamina won't be an option but Bumper horses tend to want a bit further than 3200m over the obstacles. 

He was pushed in from 9/2 to 9/4 after his success but significantly he's 6/4 for the Ballymore over 4000m and I wouldn't be at all surprised if connections opted for that race.

It was a fantastic meeting for Paul Townend and Willie Mullins with both Gordon Elliott and Henry de Bromhead in the margins in the face of the Clousutton juggernaut. I suspect the Elliott horses will be closer in a month's time but the British look to have a real fight on their hands to avoid another "Greenwash" at the hands of the Irish.

The other big losers on the afternoon were the bookies for whom endless yankees and other accumulators came in with the four odds-on winning favourites. This has been the problem with small fields and dry ground this winter - both the English and Irish bookies are suffering.

It was great to see crowds back at Leopardstown - nearly 12,000 on Saturday but with the international rugby on at the same day, there were problems on the hospitality side with staff and supply shortages as the main contractor at Leopardstown also covers Croke Park and Lansdowne Road. Sunday was reportedly much smoother with nearly 13,000 in attendance.

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Real concern being expressed over here over field sizes.

The problem is this winter has been unusually mild and benign - hardly a meeting has been lost and that has exposed the jumping programme to the truth there aren't enough horses for the number of races on offer. Fields of 4-8 for races are commonplace, betting turnover is suffering and the problem is now affecting the all-weather programme. It has exposed the absurdity of six all weather tracks when at best two are required  since these can race nearly every day with minimal maintenance. 

Don't imagine for a second NZ is the only racing jurisdiction with significant issues.

Tomorrow's cards highlight the problem - Newbury has 61 for the seven races but the two Grade 2 races have four and five runners respectively. The Game Spirit is probably the final significant trial for the Champion Chase but none of the four runners are serious contenders in my view for the big race next month. HITMAN is the likely winner - his second to GREANETEEN in the Tingle Creek is decent form and we know 3200m on good to soft is ideal so I think he'll be too good for SCEAU ROYAL who is basically a hurdler who jumps fences occasionally.

FUNAMBULE SIVOLA is perhaps the interesting one - last April he got to within three lengths of SHISHKIN at Aintree and after a couple of less inspired efforts over 4000m they brought him back in trip to win at Doncaster last time.

The Denman is the equivalent for the distance chasers over 4800m and CLAN DES OBEAUX sets a serious standard here. I suspect he won't go to Cheltenham even if he wins here and will lie in wait for the Cheltenham principals at Aintree - he was arguably a touch disappointing in defeat in the King George, a race which is tailor made for him but Newbury should suit fine and while ROYALE PAGAILLE put up an excellent weight carrying performance at Haydock last time, I'm still to be convinced he is a true Gold Cup horse and he was beaten a long way in the Blue Riband last year.

Warwick has just 45 runners for its seven races and just four for the Grade 2 Kingmaker over 3200m for the novice chasers and this is the final trial for EDWARDSTONE who had THIRD TIME LUCKI 16 lengths back in third in the Henry VIII at Sandown in December. I can't see any reason why that form should be reversed and oddly enough, as I rarely bet odds-on, I think 10/11 is a decent price about EDWARDSTONE.

To illustrate the problem on the all weather, Lingfield, which stages its usual Saturday card, has just 39 runners and is only running 6 rather than the usual 7 or 8 races. 

[Ohokaman 5,844]

Normandy Bridge first up at Caulfield for Maher/ Eustace yard an interesting runner Stodge.

Ran behind St Marks Basilica and Van Gogh in UK and good fresh. Nice trial recently.

 

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37 minutes ago, Ohokaman said:

Normandy Bridge first up at Caulfield for Maher/ Eustace yard an interesting runner Stodge.

Ran behind St Marks Basilica and Van Gogh in UK and good fresh. Nice trial recently.

 

Actually, he was a French galloper - he's by Le Havre out of a Silver Hawk mare so you can see why they thought he would love the much wetter French tracks.

He ended his juvenile campaign chasing home VAN GOGH in the Criterium de Saint Cloud on heavy ground.

On that form, he was made favourite for the Djebel, the traditional Guineas trail, which this year was run on Good ground and he was fourth and it may be they found out he could go on decent ground though he would need further.

He ran behind ST MARK'S BASILICA in both the Poulains and the Jockey Club - not beaten far in either race but never looking like getting involved.

I see he's going over 1600m tonight - probably sensible but I'm not sure he's a $3.70 chance though I see SPANISH MISSION, who ran STRADIVARIUS close over 3800m, is also in the field.

[Ohokaman 5,844]

15 minutes ago, stodge said:

Actually, he was a French galloper - he's by Le Havre out of a Silver Hawk mare so you can see why they thought he would love the much wetter French tracks.

He ended his juvenile campaign chasing home VAN GOGH in the Criterium de Saint Cloud on heavy ground.

On that form, he was made favourite for the Djebel, the traditional Guineas trail, which this year was run on Good ground and he was fourth and it may be they found out he could go on decent ground though he would need further.

He ran behind ST MARK'S BASILICA in both the Poulains and the Jockey Club - not beaten far in either race but never looking like getting involved.

I see he's going over 1600m tonight - probably sensible but I'm not sure he's a $3.70 chance though I see SPANISH MISSION, who ran STRADIVARIUS close over 3800m, is also in the field.

Yes, but coming back from Melb/ Caulfield Cups won’t be easy.

Kiwi Call Sign Mav is very good fresh and might give them something to chase at $9.

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10 hours ago, Ohokaman said:

Yes, but coming back from Melb/ Caulfield Cups won’t be easy.

Kiwi Call Sign Mav is very good fresh and might give them something to chase at $9.

The winner was rated 110 in Ireland and was fourth in the Irish Derby so he's not bad either.

EARLSWOOD is by Pivotal out of a Galileo mare so you'd think 1600-2000m would be his trip. He won two Group 3 races at 2000m last summer but probably didn't stay 2400m.

Nice performance first up and could be one to follow. SPANISH MISSION ran well in third and was rated 117 up here so I agree that makes CALLSIGN MAV more than decent.

First three nicely clear as well.

[Tauhei Notts 1,413]

Hey Stodge;

What is a Bumper race?

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A Bumper is short hand for a Flat race under National Hunt rules. These are usually for inexperienced types who have never run on the Flat though they could have jumped a point to point fence.

They started as Schooling races run at the end of the card in Ireland and because of the often large number of inexperienced runners there would be plenty of jostling and bumping - hence the name.

While there are a few Junior Bumpers for 3-y-o in the autumn over 2400-2600m the majority of English Bumpers are run over 3200m and are for slightly older horses. The top Bumper race is the Grade 1 Champion Bumper at Cheltenham.

Bumpers are usually run at the end of a national hunt card over the hurdle track - the actual hurdles are removed and the runners gallop through the space where the hurdle was. Where you gave an all-weather track, the Bumper is run on the artificial surface which is slowed by being more deeply harrowed.

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A busy week for me at work and conscious I've got a bit behind with the northern hemisphere news.

A quick word about last Friday's Meydan Carnival race which had plenty of competitive if slightly lower grade races. The sole Group 2 was the Singspiel over 1800m on the grass and there wasn't a dry eye in the house as old favourite LORD GLITTERS found his way back to the winners enclosure running down ROYAL FLEET and ZAKOUSKI in the final 100m to repeat his 2021 success in this race. From there, he went on to win the Jebel Hatta and I suspect that will be the plan again and as long as the race is run at a decent gallop this hold-up merchant will have every chance even at the ripe old age of nine.

ROYAL FLEET is half the winner's age but ran very well for all he lugs a little left under pressure. If they can remedy that tendency he looks useful and ZAKOUSKI will undoubtedly improve for his run - he got a little tired in the final 150m on his first run since a moderate effort in Bahrain.

This week's Group 2 is named after that excellent type Blue Point who in 2019 won both the King's Stand and the Diamond Jubilee having earlier won the Al Quoz Sprint. This race is naturally over 1000m on the grass and strong favourite is LAZULI who was a close second over 1200m in Listed company on his seasonal bow. He's always looked a speedy type and stepping back to 1000m looks a clear positive. 

However, he faces a horse I've always liked in ACKLAM EXPRESS who was third in the Al Quoz Sprint and was one of those who went too quick in the King's Stand at Ascot. Back on this easy track on which he has performed well in the past and also fresh, I rate him a real chance of turning over the hot favourite. 

 

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Storm Eunice has already played havoc with tomorrow's cards with Fakenham and Dundalk pulling the plug due to forecasts of life-threatening winds.

Prospects for Saturday are uncertain - the storm should move through by the end of Friday but the question of the extent of damage is impossible to know at this time. The feature at Ascot is the Grade 1 Ascot Chase over 4200m and the ground is now Soft after some long-awaited rain.

Haydock and Wincanton also stage Grade 2 races and I'll preview the lot tomorrow evening when I have a better idea of what's happening (or not).

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Inspections at Wincanton and Haydock tomorrow morning but I think they'll both survive and seemingly no problems at Ascot meeting.

Ascot is the feature meeting with the ground Soft.

8 go in the Grade 1 Ascot Chase over 4200m and last year's winner DRASHEL DASHER will be aiming to follow up. We know he loves the track and while he was just beaten at Lingfield (the other way round) he ran a perfectly good race and I take him to confirm form with FAKIR D'OUDAIRIES. However, this is a fair field and SAINT CALVADOS is a serious opponent. His last three runs were in the 2020 King George, the 2021 Gold Cup and the 2021 King George. At Kempton, he ran fourth to FRODON in 2020 and third to TORNADO FLYER in 2021 but the significant form for me was his second to MIN in the 2020 Ryanair - a reproduction of that and he wins this.

MISTER FISHER beat ELDORADO ALLEN in the Silvinianco Conti at Kempton five weeks ago and the second won the Denman at Newbury last weekend but I just wonder if MISTER FISHER might be better on a flatter track and quicker ground. I'm also interested in LOSTINTRANSLATION who won the 1965 Chase over this course and distance in November and we can probably excuse his King George failure. Back in trip I rate him a knocking each way bet at 12s.

The Grade 2 Reynoldstown for the staying novices over 4800m has six runners. Very open betting overnight with 3s the field and the outsider at 6s (what I call dog-race prices). None of these are really serious contenders for the staying novice championship at Cheltenham - DOES HE KNOW is perhaps the best of them.

At Wincanton, the Kingwell is one of the last Champion Hurdle trials but I suspect GOSHEN will avoid Prestbury Park after his previous antics. He looked back to his best at Sandown last time and of course won this by a mile last year. He should follow up but ADAGIO is no mug and has had a quiet preparation since finishing runner up in the Greatwood last November. Let's not forget he was second in last year's Triumph but it's very hard for the second season hurdlers though this one is clearly of a high standard.

At Haydock, the ground will be very testing if the meeting survives. PORTICELLO is arguably the best of the British juvenile hurdlers and is 1/3 to win the Victor Ludorum - he was very impressive in the Finale at Chepstow over Christmas. The Rendlesham is for the staying hurdlers over 4800m and just six run. MOLLY OLLY'S WISHES won a Mares Hurdle at Ascot last time but is up against the geldings and I fancy THOMAS DARBY, whose fourth in the Long Walk looks solid form.

[Tauhei Notts 1,413]

Stodge, your comments on the weight allotted to Tiger Roll in the Grand National would be appreciated.  The owners seem to have gone out of their tree on the impost placed on their horse.

[stodge 1,949]

On 2/21/2022 at 7:35 PM, Tauhei Notts said:

Stodge, your comments on the weight allotted to Tiger Roll in the Grand National would be appreciated.  The owners seem to have gone out of their tree on the impost placed on their horse.

For a little background and context, the Grand National is not handicapped as any other race. The unique nature of the obstacles means some horses perform significantly better at the venue than a normal what we call "park" jumping venue such as Cheltenham, Sandown or Ascot. There are a handful of races run over the National fences each season (the Sefton, the Becher, the Topham, the Foxhunters and of course the National itself) and it is remarkable how often the same horses perform well in these races. The old adage "horses for courses" applies more to Aintree than almost any other venue.

The handicapper therefore takes into account past performance over the National fences and horses with a consistently good record often get weighted higher than their normal rating and TIGER ROLL is a fine example. He's won the race twice after all 

In 2019, when he won his second National, he was rated 159. In the aborted 19/20 campaign, he ran over hurdles at Navan and then went to the cross country at Cheltenham where, running off a mark of 171, he was beaten 17 lengths into second by EASYSLAND (pulled up at Ascot last Saturday). He returned in November 2020 and off 166 thrashed EASYSLAND 18 lengths in a cross country at Cheltenham but he was put up to 171 on the basis of that which is effectively Gold Cup class (A PLUS TARD runs off 174). As such , he was given top weight for the National and would have been giving lumps of weight away - he did run at Aintree over the normal fences and was tailed off fourth beaten 92 lengths in the Betway Bowl.

By December 2021, he had dropped again to 165 but was pulled up in the Many Clouds after which his rating fell again to its current mark of 155 so just 4 lbs lower than in April 2019. The fact is he's a 12-y-o and has only run 44 times but his form since December 2020 has been moderate. However, the handicapper can't forget he has won two Grand Nationals, albeit in 2018 and 2019. To be fair, Red Rum won the race in 1973 and 1974 and came back in 1977 to win a third time so TIGER ROLL is seeking to emulate that legend. 

For the National, he's been rated 161 and MINELLA TIMES, the 2021 winner, who has failed to complete in two runs since, is also 161 having won the race off 146 so you could argue if TIGER ROLL has been harshly treated so has MINELLA TIMES.  

I don't think O'Leary has a lot to complain about - the horse has been deliberately campaigned to avoid his overall rating and they've tried to pull a bit of a flanker but to no avail - he has in effect a 6 lb penalty for winning the race twice and MINELLA TIMES has a 3 lb penalty for winning it once. O'Leary has tried a bit of the old emotional blackmail because he knows having TIGER ROLL try to win a third National is huge box office for the race and the sport and has basically said "give him a winning weight and he'll turn up". His bluff has been called and he's gone off in a huff.

Sorry, bit long winded but I thought a bit of explanation helpful.

[stodge 1,949]

Starting the look back at the weekend just gone, Friday saw another Carnival fixture at Meydan.

The Group 2 Blue Point over 1000m went to LAZULI who just came through late to beat ACKLAM EXPESS, who ran another blinder over that track and rewarded an each way bet at 10s. LAZULI looked very good one day at Newmarket on quick ground and I think he needs the ground and a flat track.

Apart from LAZULI, Godolphin won three of the other five races at a meeting they are dominating. MANOBO looked very good in the 2800m Group 3 and he looks a stayer of real promise. One race they didn't win was the UAE Oaks in which SHAHAMA won her fourth race at the ridiculous odds of 1/9 but she could even fluff the start and still be far too good for this lot.

While Meydan race on Friday, their card is pretty low-level for a Carnival and that's because the focus of this week switches to Saudi Arabia and the Saudi Cup meeting at Riyadh. Friday sees an International Jockeys Challenge before the main races on Saturday and the USD 20 million Saudi Cup.

More on this later in the week. 

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Back to last Saturday and a quick look at the British jumps racing all of which survived the ravages of Storm Eunice but the accompanying heavy rain left testing conditions for the first time in many weeks especially at Haydock but it was Soft (Heavy in places) at Ascot for the feature Grade 1 Ascot Chase over 4200m.

Eight went to post and this looked a solid renewal with market leader the Irish raider FAKIR D'OUDAIRIES:

Ascot Chase: 

Incredibly, for a man who has trained a Melbourne Cup winner, this was Joseph O'Brien's first ever winner as a trainer at Ascot. The immediate question is how good is ALLAHO who beat FAKIR D'OUDAIRIES twelve lengths at Thurles last time and has the Ryanair seemingly at this mercy? TWO FOR GOLD ran a fantastic race in second and I noted FANION D'ESTRUVAL running home strongly for third and I'd love to see him in the King George at Kempton for which he looks tailor made.

The conditions found out a number of these - LOSTINTRANSLATION isn't the horse he was and WAITING PATIENTLY was retired after another lacklustre effort.

The Grade 2 Reynoldstown for the staying novice chasers looked a competitive heat on paper but was won easily by DOES HE KNOW who has stamina in abundance and is now 8/1 for the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham which is these days run over 6000m (used to be 6400m).

At Haydock, conditions were brutal - three Grade 2 races - PORTICELLO won the Victor Ludorum for the juveniles over 3200m by 17 lengths and goes as Britain's best hope against the likes of VAUBAN in the Triumph. PORTICELLO is a decent animal but I just wonder if the hurly-burly of the Triumph will play to his strengths. WHOLESTONE defied a 455 day absence to win the Rendlesham in which just three finished. He's run fifth in a Stayers in the past but I'd be astonished if he was good enough now. HILLCREST made amends for his early Cheltenham departure with a solid win in the 4800m novices hurdle and will head for the equivalent at the Festival with a leading chance and I'm looking forward to him jumping fences next season.

At Wincanton, track officials performed miracles to get the meeting on after fences and buildings had been damaged by the previous day's storm but they raced and GOSHEN saw off ADAGIO in the Kingwell over 3200m. GOSHEN won't go to Cheltenham I suspect - he's only effective right handed which leaves Sandown or Punchestown as end of season objectives. ADAGIO ran well on just his second outing and I'm more than tempted by an each way play at 16s for the Champion Hurdle as I think he will come on for the run.

[Tauhei Notts 1,413]

Stodge, your response about an hour ago on Tiger Roll's weight is appreciated.

Don't apologise for long windedness when your writing is a joy to read.  If I want to read shite I will turn to the daily papers.

[stodge 1,949]

The other big news over here has been the decision of the BHA not to grant champion jockey Oisin Murphy a licence to ride again until February 2023.

Murphy voluntarily relinquished his licence in December 2021 following further allegations of failing tests for alcohol, drugs and for falsifying Covid-19 claims. The truth of this sorry tale has come out today and it doesn't paint Murphy in a very good light. Apart from an ongoing battle against alcoholism, Murphy lied about a holiday in Mykonos claiming he had gone to lake Garda in Italy to avoid a period of isolation.

He has been handed a £30,000 fine and a year's suspension - basically. Given he lost the championship title by just eight, William Buick may feel Murphy cheated him out of the title last year by riding when he should have been isolating but Murphy's career is very much at a crossroads.

As a wise man said, it will either be the making of him or the breaking of him.

[stodge 1,949]

Seven races at Riyadh on Saturday and as the saying goes "money talks, men (and horses) walk" with strong fields through the card.

I'll talk more about the Saudi Cup tomorrow or Friday. 

The supporting card has three turf races and three Dirt races - the turf races all carry Group 3 status but have huge prize pots. The opening Turf Cup over 2050m goes for £666,667 to the winner. PYLEDRIVER was second in the Hong Kong Vase and I've always thought him a 2400m horse - he did win the Coronation Cup at Epsom. He was three lengths in front of EBAIYRA but both might struggle against Japan Cup runner up AUTHORITY who will love the quick ground. 

The two I like are HARROVIAN and SOLID STONE ridden by Messrs Dettori and Moore respectively. The latter is a solid Group 3 performer in the UK and is my idea of the winner.

The Turf Sprint is over 1400m and again a maximum field. The one I like here is HAPPY ROMANCE who has Group 1 form at 1000 and 1200m and I'm just hoping this sharp track and quick ground will enable his stamina to hold up. The obvious alternative is NAVAL CROWN who looked good at Meydan but I'm more worried about HAPPY POWER whose Goodwood third in the Lennox looks decent form for this kind of race. I think he's more a trip specialist than HAPPY ROMANCE.

The 3000m Red Sea Handicap carries a first prize of £1,111,111 so not far behind the Arc and the Derby. It's basically Saudi Arabia's version of the Melbourne Cup. SONNYBOYLISTON was heading for Flemington after wins in the Ebor and the Irish Leger but didn't make the gig this time - could he a 2022 contender for the big Aussie prize? he heads the weights and deservedly so - PRINCESS ZOE may struggle on the ground. I think the likes of SKAZINO and NAYEF ROAD are going to be tapped for toe and the Godolphin trio look the main threats - SISKANY was hugely impressive at Meydan and could be well treated.

The Saudi Derby is over 1600m on the Dirt. Godolphin again have three but Bob Baffert has sent over PINEHURST who was fifth in the Breeders Cup Juvenile and runner up in the San Vicente last time. He could be too good for the UAE contingent and the locals. The Japanese have two and they must be respected for all they look a bit below the class of this race.

The Dirt Sprint over 1200m is mainly a clash between the Saudi locals and the best of the Meydan turf sprinters. COPPONO KICKING won this last year but SWITZERLAND is a standing dish at Meydan and bolted up last time. However, DANCING KING has useful form in Japan and he might surprise them all.

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Looking ahead to a busy racing Saturday but the UK racing is short on quality and long on quantity which isn't surprising as Cheltenham starts two weeks next Tuesday. 

Some of the last "Trials" are at Kempton where the ground has dried to Good to Soft, Good in places.

The Adonis is for the juvenile hurdlers over 3200m and eleven are going to post for this Grade 2 which is often won by a decent late arrival on the Triumph Hurdle scene. This year's renewal looks well up to standard with IMPERIAL KNIGHT bringing some serious form. He's unbeaten in four and beat PORTICELLO in the Summit at Doncaster. The latter has won the Finale at Chepstow and the Victor Ludorum since but on this quick track and better ground I think IMPERIAL KNIGHT is going to be a serious player. 

You wouldn't expect a son of Galileo out of a Redoute's Choice mare to cut it as a hurdler but PLEASANT MAN could be a significant fly in IMPERIAL KNIGHT's ointment. PLEASANT MAN was rated 95 on the flat and run in Class 2 handicaps winning at Yarmouth over 2800m on his last run. The truth is flat horses who win beyond 2400m often find 3200m a bit sharp over hurdles and often need 4000m to show their real form but it wouldn't be the biggest surprise if PLEASANT MAN, from the Paul Nicholls yard, was the exception and ran to his best at the shorter trip.

Five go in the Pendil over 4000m for the intermediate novice chasers. PIC D'ORHY was no match for L'HOMME PRESSE at Sandown last time but the latter is well fancied for the Turners at Cheltenham. In this race, the question is put up one against PIC D'ORHY. MINELLA DRAMA looks better on softer ground but the trip will help and while MILLER'S BANK looked good on chasing debut, he's failed to finish the last twice and has had wind surgery.

The Dovecote is the trial for the Supreme Novices Hurdle but you'd be hard pushed to think any of these are going to get involved at the business end of that race. The 4-y-o ICEO runs in this rather than the Adonis but was brushed aside by PIED PIPER at Cheltenham last month. SHALLWEHAVEONEMORE won a small race at Sandown last month but on the same course he was 26 lengths behind CONSTITUTION HILL in the Tolworth.

14 go in the £7.5 million Saudi Cup in Riyadh and the big question is whether MISHRIFF can become one of the biggest prize money earners in racing history with a second win. He's currently on £11.2 million with WINX on £14.5 million. His two best efforts on turf last year were on quick ground - he was second to Derby winner ADAYAR at Ascot and then won the Juddmonte by six lengths. On that form, he's going to take a lot of beating but he faces a serious rival in American galloper MANDALOUN who, although second past the post in both the Kentucky Derby and the Haskell, got both races on the subsequent disqualification of the first past the post.  He warmed up for this with a win in the Louisiana Stakes in late January and he has to be respected.

The two dominate the betting - T O KEYNES is the main Japanese challenger and stepped up to win the Champions Cup by six lengths last time. ART COLLECTOR won the Woodward but was beaten a long way in the Breeders Cup Classic while REAL WORLD was only a handicapper on Dirt in Meydan this time last year. SEALIWAY was fifth in the Arc and beat MISHRIFF in the Champion Stakes at Ascot but that as on soft turf not Dirt. MIDNIGHT BOURBON mixed it with the top American 3-y-o last year running twice behind MANDALOUN but that doesn't look good enough.

I'm going to go with my heart and hope MISHRIFF wins but MANDALOUN is a serious rival.

 

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It may not be in the class of the Saudi Cup and is worth much less but it's Winter Derby day at Lingfield. I saw the inaugural running way back in the dim and distant when it was on Equitrack and they staged it as a single flat race around a card of jump races.

Times have changed...

LORD NORTH is 11/10 favourite but he missed all last year's European season and hasn't been seen since winning the Dubai Turf on World Cup night last year. He won the Prince of Wales in 2020 and was a decent fourth in that year's Breeders Cup Turf less than three lengths off TARNAWA and MAGICAL, a pair of champion fillies. If he's anywhere near form, he wins and has course and distance form. 

ALENQUER was third in the Grand Prix de Paris, second in the Juddmonte and ninth in the Arc so he's dined at the top table as a 3-y-o. There's a fair chance he'll be better this year but I just wonder if 2400m will be his trip - on his debut run at Sandown last April, he beat a certain ADAYAR.

FANCY MAN won the Trial well enough and he's a decent sort in Group 3 company but he shouldn't be good enough to trouble an in-form LORD NORTH.

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A two-prong update from the weekend just gone up here - I'll start with matters Middle Eastern covering Saudi Cup day at Riyadh.

I'll stat with the big race - the Saudi Cup worth a staggering £7.4 million to the winner and carrying nearly £15 million in total prize money.

MISHRIFF was bidding to follow up last year's success but faced strong challenges from America in the shape of MANDALOUN and ART COLLECTOR and Japan in the form of T O KEYNES while REAL WORLD represented Godolphin.

Saudi Cup: 

A fantastic race notable for the eclipse of most of the foreign raiders and perhaps the real emergence of Saudi racing on the world stage with the 80/1 success of EMBLEM ROAD who was given a sensible ride from Wigberto Ramos keeping him wide of the kickback. He'd won his last two over 1600m over the track but to imagine he could go on from that to winning a serious Group 1 required a fair leap of faith. 

COUNTRY GRAMMER ran a huge race in defeat - his American form suggested 1600m was his trip and I did think he just ran out of gas (so to speak) in the final 100m. In truth, neither he nor third placed MIDNIGHT BOURBON are anywhere near the top of the American 4-y-o pecking order but they ran well while MANDALOUN flopped but then so did T O KEYNES while MISHRIFF trailed home last of all.

While the locals celebrated in the big one, the rest of the card showcased the continuing rise of Japanese racing as they won four of the other five main card races. If you've followed my ramblings here and in other places I've been telling the story of the rise of Japan for a while - wins in the Cox Plate and the Breeders Cup showed the way and now they have plundered four huge prizes in Saudi and will perhaps one day even eye up races like the Arc and the Melbourne Cup.

AUTHORITY made every yard in the 2050m opening Group 3 on the grass and was always in command. EBAIYRA came home third in a race a shade short for her on such a flat track with HARROVIAN the best of the British challengers in fourth.

The 1360m Group 3 turf sprint saw the filly SONGLINE just hold on from the American CASA CREEK who might not have done any favours by the wide draw. HAPPY ROMANCE ran a huge race in third auguring well for a 1200m campaign in the UK this year. 

The 3000m handicap on the grass carried a first prize of £1.1 million and was as well contested as any Melbourne Cup but well though Ebor and Irish Leger hero SONNYBOYLISTON ran, he couldn't give 5 lbs to STAY FOOLISH who was a shock Japanese winner. He'd run fifth in the Hong Kong Vase in mid December but the step up in trip brought a huge improvement and you'd wonder if connections might fancy a trip to Flemington in November. SONNYBOYLISTON may well be on the plane to Melbourne and I suspect he'll have a slow-build European campaign but BARON SAMEDI, who was fourth here, shouldn't be underestimated. Between them ran SISKANY who is a likeable improving 4-y-o and I suspect we'll see him in Europe before long.

The 1200m Dirt Sprint was a facile success for DANCING PRINCE who is now 6 from 8 over Dirt - I wonder if he'll head to Meydan for World Cup night. He led home a 1-3-4 for Japan with CHAIN OF LOVE and last year's winner COPANO KICKING taking the minor honours while GOOD EFFORT ran a blinder for the UK in second. It's worth noting GOOD EFFORT is only a Listed class sprinter here and was turned over at 2/5 at Lingfield last time.

The only race to elude the Japanese was the Saudi Derby over 1600m on the Dirt and as many thought likely, Bob Baffert stepped in and PINEHURST was too good for these. Breaking well and always looking comfortable, Flavien prat had few problems though the Japanese were close again with SEKIFU and CONSIGLIERE finishing second and third.

It will be fascinating to see if Japan can build on this success at Meydan in a month or so - it will encourage Japanese trainers and owners to start running further afield and, as I say, with the strong prize money in Australia in the southern hemisphere spring, I suspect more will follow the likes of LYS GRACIEUX. For the Americans, a satisfactory evening with PINEHURST winning and minor honours in the big one which provided a huge fillip for the locals who were mostly on the receiving end.  Not so much to smile about for the British, French and Irish who got only a few places out of the meeting and perhaps a salutary lesson as to where the balance of world power in horse racing is now moving. 

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The second part of the weekend review covers the jump racing in Britain and very much the last of the big Cheltenham Trial races at the various venues.

Kempton was the main meeting and KNIGHT SALUTE earned a 14/1 quote for the Triumph with a smooth victory in the Adonis for the 4-y-o hurdlers. He's a nice type and clearly effective on decent ground. He gave 5 lbs to the field and saw them off to win his fifth successive hurdle. He obviously has a chance at Cheltenham and it may be, not coming from one of the big yards, he's overpriced.

The Pendil for the Novice chasers went to PIC D'ORHY whose jumping was much better this time. He won't go to Cheltenham but could be a player at Aintree though again his jumping will be tested there if, as they often do, they go quick from the start. The Dovecote for the novice hurdlers over 3200m didn't make a ripple in the Supreme market - the winner, AUCUNRISQUE, will be heading for one of the big handicaps.

Sunday saw the National Spirit at Fontwell over 3800m. BREWIN'UPASTORM was favourite for this but he couldn't give 6 lbs to BOTOX HAS who was a decent juvenile hurdler but suffered an injury, had a long time off and was then tried unsuccessfully over fences. Back to hurdles and on a flat track, he's found his spark again.

The feature on the Flat was the Group 3 Winter Derby at Lingfield over 2000m which saw the return of LORD NORTH but he was reportedly "only 80% fit" and was outpointed by ALENQUER who started last season winning at Sandown and beating a couple of decent sorts in ADAYAR and YIBIR. It could be we'll see the best of him this year and it will be interesting to see if connections keep him at 2000m or see him as a more versatile type who could go well at 2400m.

LORD NORTH did little wrong and you'd imagine he'd run in races like the Prince of Wales and the Juddmonte again this season.

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The shadow of Cheltenham looms ever larger with the Festival starting in just twelve days. The racing before than will suffer in terms of quality as all eyes will be on Gloucestershire. 

Kelso, in the Scottish borders, stages its biggest meeting of the year and the Grade 2 Novice hurdle over 3600m is the feature. NORTH LAKE is top rated having won both his hurdle starts including a Grade 2 at Cheltenham over 4000m last time.  Kelso has a long run in but even so I'm just a little doubtful - RICHMOND LAKE is the same horse on the figures but has much more experience having run four times and his defeat by JONBON in the Rossington Main at Haydock last time was a decent effort. SHOLOKJACK and BOLD ENDEAVOUR are also unbeaten but in lesser company and will have to step up to be involved with the main two in the market.

The real quality is at Meydan where it's "Super Saturday", the penultimate Carnival meeting before World Cup night.

8 races, four on the turf and the same number on the Dirt. Two Group 1 races and a Group 2 so I'll cover those.

The City of Gold is a Group 2 over 2400m on the turf. 14 go but there's a fair bit of dead wood in the field. Only four are rated above 109 which suggests this may not be the strongest Group 2 ever run. Of those four AMHRAN NA BHAFAINN (110) has done very little recently, WITHOUT A FIGHT (109) improved for some quick ground in the late summer winning a handicap and a Listed race but this is another step forward. SQUIRE DE LUYNES (113) is a star in Scandinavia having won the Stockholm Cup last time beating the English-trained OUTBOX who has himself won in Doha since so that's decent form.

They should all have to go a bit to beat HUKUM (116) who is a solid Group 3 performer having won the Geoffrey Freer and the Cumberland Lodge. He was beaten in the Group 2 Hardwicke at Ascot but that was a much stronger race than this. 6/4 doesn't float my boat but it's a fair assessment of his chances in his race and I think he'll win.

The Group 1 on the Dirt is the third and final round of the Maktoum Challenge over 2000m. This looks a moderate renewal - top rated only 112. SALUTE THE SOLDIER and HYPOTHETICAL are joint top rated and were first and second in this race last year. HYPOTHETICAL is unproven for me over 2000m - better at shorter. The race could be a trial for the World Cup but with no HOT ROD CHARLIE, it's probably for the also-rans. EVERFAST and FOR THE TOP saw the rear end of HOT ROD CHARLIE at more than 13 lengths distance in the second round of this but will find nothing of his calibre in this field. I think the two of them might upset last year's principals but it's not a race in which I will be playing.

15 go for the turf Group 1, the Jebel Hatta, over 1800m and there won't be a dry eye in the house if LORD GLITTERS can repeat last year's heroics. He was right back to his best last time winning the Singspiel defeating ROYAL FLEET who has won since. The 2020 Jebel Hatta winner, BARNEY ROY, was only half a length behind LORD GLITTERS in Bahrain last November and you'd think there will be very little between them again.

William Buick has swerved BARNEY ROY for ZAKOUSKI, who was less than two lengths behind LORD GLITTERS in the Singspiel. That was his first run since a poor effort in Bahrain and I suspect he'll come on a lot but he'll need to. BARNEY ROY has a nice inside berth and may just have too much for LORD GLITTERS this time.