News from the North(ern) Hemisphere

[stodge 1,940]

2 hours ago, Tauhei Notts said:

Note how the Brains' Trust at Jackson Street, Petone take betting on a hurdle race from Newton Abbott, but not on the Ebor Handicap at York.

It is worry for our racing when our wagering monopoly shows such a piss poor knowledge of what is likely to attract a bet.

There's just no answer to that from my perspective.

This afternoon's card at York is about as punter-friendly as it gets - six of the seven races will pay first three while at Newton Abbot five of the seven races are first and second only.

Anyone would think TAB New Zealand wanted punters to bet on races where TAB stood more chance....

Surely not.

[stodge 1,940]

The second day of the York Ebor Festival took place on ground still described as Good despite no overnight rain or irrigation.

That may have been true but the times continued to be quick as we shall see and there was plenty of evidence the ground down the far side was nearer good/firm.

@Ohokamanhas already posted the Yorkshire Oaks so I won't repeat.

The race was run in 2 minutes 26.61 seconds so 2.69 seconds below standard so a decent time suggesting quick ground.

I didn't think SNOWFALL enjoyed the ground at all - Ryan Moore never picked up the whip or got serious - indeed, I thought he nursed her home. She was dominant and, bar LA JOCONDE who ran a huge race at the price, still beat the Ribblesdale winner ten lengths. WONDERFUL TONIGHT was certainly unsuited by the ground and I wonder if connections wished they had waited for the Pomone at Deauville. 

ALBAFLORA ran home well and was of course giving the winner 9 lbs. Now, you could argue that for a filly who was fourth in the Coronation Cup to PYLEDRIVER (beaten eight and a half lengths) to get to within four lengths suggests SNOWFALL is no world beater. 

I think the point is you can crab SNOWFALL's form more than for example ADAYAR's which got a huge boost with the success of MISHRIFF on Wednesday. 

I hope they both turn up in Paris - I think she's more likely if the ground is soft - I just think ADAYAR may swerve the race if the ground is soft or worse. 

I was left with more questions than answers and it may well be we've yet to see the best of SNOWFALL but she did what she had to do and the manner she moved into the race 600m down was very smooth - as I say, I don't think she quickened or finished off that well and might have been down to the ground.

ALBAFLORA ran really well and I think her shrewd connections will be looking to Europe - perhaps a race like the Royallieu might be more suitable.

The Group 2 Lowther for the juvenile fillies produced a dramatic finish.

One of the issues with York is the crowd on both sides of the track and the left hand turn immediately after the post produces a "canyon" effect which encourages horses to hang left in the final 200m.

I think that's what happened with SANDRINE - she travelled into the race really well and came to challenge but the noise and the canyon forced her to hang left and that cost her the race.

DESERT DREAMER was another unlucky runner - Oisin Murphy reported she was coming with her run but the saddle slipped at a critical moment and she lost momentum before rallying to hold third.

ZAIN CLAUDETTE was probably the deserved winner but she was getting 3 lb from SANDRINE and in truth while the latter lost her unbeaten record she lost nothing in defeat.

Hopefully they'll rematch in the Cheveley Park at Newmarket. 

The likes of VERTIGINIOUS, NYMPHADORA and even HELLO YOU, another who didn't get the best of runs, will also be in the mix and with three and a half lengths covering the first six home the pecking order among juvenile fillies remains far from clear.

 

[stodge 1,940]

The third day of the York Ebor meeting continued with dry and often cloudy conditions.

The ground was upgraded to Good to Firm, Good in places and the times continued to reflect the quick turf aided by a slight tailwind for the runners up the straight.

The Group 1 feature was the Nunthorpe over 1000m, one of only two races at the distance to have championship status in the UK.

Nunthorpe Stakes: 

As expected, GOLDEN PAL went like a scalded cat but in America they race round a turn at 1000m and he never looked as though he was going to see it out.

WINTER POWER has serious course form having won twice over this trip and this track uniquely seems to play to her strengths in a way Ascot for example doesn't. She was always prominent and put up an impressive performance and was clearly best on the day.

EMARAATY ANA is a real veteran and won the 2018 Gimcrack (of which more anon). He's another who seems to take to the track and this made it a 1-2 for Yorkshire-trained horses on their home track.

DRAGON SYMBOL ran yet another strong race in third and has been such a consistent type for connections at both this trip and 1200m. SUESA was drawn on the wrong side of the track and got badly outpaced before running home well to be a never nearer fourth.

WINTER POWER ran the 1000m in 56.72 seconds which is well below standard but nearly a second off the course record set by the recently-retired Battaash who was paraded to a generous round of applause before the race.

I suspect WINTER POWER will head for the Abbaye as will a number of these - I'd like SUESA back on some slower ground but the Abbaye is a 950m race so you need to be close to the pace.

The Group 2 Lonsdale was the staying race of the meeting:

Lonsdale Cup: 

A pulsating duel between STRADIVARIUS and SPANISH MISSION and while my wallet told me otherwise, the winner was hugely popular. He's not perhaps the horse he once was but connections are playing the line he'll stay in training as long as he enjoys it.

The truth is the staying division is currently very threadbare especially with the loss of SUBJECTIVIST and nothing coming out of Ireland. A couple of runs on heavy ground have also convinced connections STRADIVARIUS won't be seen again on anything other than a decent surface. Let's be fair - SPANISH MISSION gave him a right race and was only worried out of it in the final 50m. TRUESHAN will be waiting for races like the Champions Day Stayers which are likely to be run on slow ground so unless connections fancy Doncaster, I'm not sure if we'll see STRADIVARIUS again this year. 

The Group 2 Gimcrack was the race for the juvenile colts. 

LUSAIL beat ASYMMETRIC in the July Stakes at Newmarket but this was a taking performance and trainer Richard Hannon clearly thinks he's a Guineas horse. I'm less convinced - the dam only got 1200m and LUSAIL seems all speed to me - he could well be a Commonwealth Cup horse next year. 

The second, GIS A SUB, ran a huge race for the north but the proximity of TWILIGHT JET in third just makes me wonder. TWILIGHT JET was a well held sixth behind EBRO RIVER in the Phoenix so you'd have to think that form might be superior to this - we'll see down the line.

Oisin Murphy reported BERKSHIRE SHADOW ran flat - I thought the step back in trip would help but he was never in contention.

[stodge 1,940]

I'll pick up on the weekend's events tomorrow.

Looking further down the week, the feature on Saturday is the Group 2 Celebration Mile at Goodwood. 14 have been entered - one notable absentee is BAAEED who will head straight for the Moulin at Longchamp on September 5th.

Shadwell have MUTASAABEQ but while he won well enough at Haydock last time this is a big step up in class.

CHINDIT is early 3/1 favourite with BENBATL at 4/1.

The feature on what I think is the final day at Deauville next Sunday is the Grand Prix de Deauville, a Group 2 over 2500m.

[stodge 1,940]

Starting the look back at a busy weekend with the Saturday racing in the UK and elsewhere.

The final day of the York Ebor Festival saw steady rain arrive before the big race - the ground remained Good through the card but the times suggested the rain had got in after the fourth race.

The feature Group race was the Group 2 City of York:

City of York Stakes:  

SPACE BLUES is a class act at this trip. The run in the Lennox put him spot on for this and he was the only one able to cope with the searching pace. They ran right on standard at 1 minute 22.6 seconds so another decent time at a meeting where the ground was clearly conducive to speed performances.

The plan is the Park Stakes at Doncaster before the Foret on Arc day. The clamour for Britain to have a Group 1 for older horses over 1400m isn't helped by the fact this race is just a week after the Hungerford at Newbury and three weeks after the Lennox at Goodwood. Somebody is going to have to take some hard decisions to get that Group 1.

HIGHFIELD KNIGHT won a handicap off 58 last September and is now running off 104 so that's over 3 stone of improvement. GLORIOUS JOURNEY is consistent in this class and finished the same distance behind SPACE BLUES here as he had in the Turf Sprint at Riyadh way back in January.

The disappointment of the race was the filly PRIMO BACIO who was never travelling and trailed in one from last.

The Group 3 Strensall over 1800m saw REAL WORLD follow up his Ascot and Newbury wins in style and recording a decent time in the process. He's 8/1 for the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes and 10/1 for the Champion Stakes but I just don't see him as being effective on slow autumn turf. I suspect he'll be packed off to Meydan for a winter campaign.

The Ebor Handicap went to SONNYBOYLISTON for whom the Melbourne Cup is a possibility but connections are also tempted by the Irish Leger. The ante post favourite HAMISH was a late scratching as the rain didn't come in time and with the weights compressed to 14 lbs it wasn't much of a handicap but basically a Listed race masquerading as a handicap. QUICKTHORN and ALOUNAK both ran well for the places - the latter would have appreciated more rain. MAX VEGA was arguably unlucky in fifth.

At Sandown, the juvenile form was tested in the Group 3 Solario over 1400m but the Queen's REACH FOR THE MOON looked very good winning by four lengths. Everyone would love HMQ ro have a serious contender for the Platinum Jubilee Derby next June but that's still a very long way off. One who has already tried her hand unsuccessfully in classics is SAFFRON BEACH and after failing in the 1000 Guineas, Oaks and Falmouth, the Group 3 Atalanta was a voyage in calmer waters and she did it very well. 

The rain had reached The Curragh and turned the ground Soft for the Saturday evening meeting, The two Group 2 juvenile races were the Debutante for the fillies and the Futurity for the colts. The former went to AGARTHA for Joseph O'Brien who made every yard but SUNSET SHIRAZ chased her home strongly and went into the notebook for next year. She's by Time Test out of a Scirocco mare so 2400m on soft ground will be ideal. The winner did this nicely however and followed up her Silver Flash win.

The Futurity saw Chesham and Tyros winner POINT LONSDALE sent off at 1/6 and he bolted up. He had beaten REACH FOR THE MOON at Ascot and you'd have to say these look two of the leading 1400m juvenile colts at this stage. POINT LONSDALE is 3/1 favourite for the Dewhurst with Gimcrack winner LUSAIL at 6/1 along with Superlative winner NATIVE TRAIL (who I think will run in the Champagne at Doncaster) and REACH FOR THE MOON. 

Soft ground at Deauville for the first day of the two-day weekend meeting and the two Group 2 races produced upsets. British raider OSCULA was expected to follow up her win over course and distance three weeks earlier but she was outpointed by provincial challenger ACCAKABA who had been plying her trade at Bordeaux. The British filly ZEYAADAH was sent off 8/5 favourite to win the Nonette but perhaps her Goodwood exertions had left their mark as she finished mid division behind 35/1 boil over winner RUMI who had previously been well beaten in both the Saint Alary and the Diane. 

 

[stodge 1,940]

A strong card at Deauville on Sunday featuring two Group 1 races. The ground was officially Good to Soft in Northern France.

Prix Morny: 

It didn't work out for PERFECT POWER in the Richmond but he made amends in style to win Europe's second juvenile Group 1. He won the Norfolk at Ascot in style and this puts him right at the top of the 1200m tree (LUSAIL supporters may have other views and on a line through ASYMMETRIC there's not much between them). PERFECT POWER is out of the sprinter Ardad out of a dam who went 1600m but I see him as a sprinter and a Commonwealth Cup rather than a Guineas type.

TRIDENT ran a fine race in second - there's an argument he hit the front too soon in the Cabourg and was a sitting duck for the finishers but he reversed the form with the likes of HAVE A GOOD DAY and it'll be fascinating to see where Andre Fabre goes next.

ASYMMETRIC, ARMOR and GUBBASS were next and split by barely half a length. I thought ARMOR was stuck on the wrong side of the race and I expect a better performance perhaps back at 1000m next time. 

Queen Mary winner QUICK SUZY didn't seem to stay the 1200m and I wonder if she would have been better having a tilt at the Nunthorpe while both KHUNAN and VELOCIDAD also failed to sparkle. 

PERFECT POWER is 7/2 for the Middle Park over 1200m at Newmarket in four weeks and that seems a reasonable option.

Prix Jean Romanet:  

Apologies for the French commentary - this was a right boil over as 23/1 outsider GRAND GLORY foiled AUDARYA's attempt at a repeat success in the very last stride. It was agonising for James Fanshawe's filly who ran much better than at Goodwood and comprehensively reversed Nassau form with LADY BOWTHORPE. 

GRAND GLORY had won a Group 3 at Vichy last time so it was a lot to expect her to live with these proven Group 1 fillies and mares. THUNDERING NIGHTS ran a decent third - I suspect the Pretty Polly she won wasn't the strongest Group 1 you'll ever see. The lightly raced AMBITION had run a close second to AUDARYA in this last year and while beaten a little further this time certainly wasn't disgraced.

I don't know why Soumillon went to the front on EBAIYRA - it's now how I like to see her race - and she was a target for the finishers and along with LADY BOWTHORPE was disappointing.

In the supporting Group 2 Pomone over 2400m, RAABIHAH put herself right in the Arc picture with an emphatic win over JOIE DE SOIR. VALIA was doing all her best work late and remains a serous presence in the staying races. The Vermeille may be a little quick but the problem is the 3-y-o look very strong in this year's Arc if both ADAYAR and SNOWFALL turn up. The 20/1 quote from the British bookies doesn't look unreasonable.

The Kergorlay saw SKAZINO enhance his standing among the stayers with a win over the German horse RIP VAN LIPS. I suspect he and VALIA will cross paths again perhaps in the Royal Oak later in the autumn.

[stodge 1,940]

Saturday's final declarations are through up here.

To be honest, this weekend is more about quantity than quality.

9 are left in the Group 2 Celebration Mile at Goodwood. With the strength of the mile division in general both among the colts and the fillies, this has a few in it who haven't quite made it at the highest level.

That doesn't really apply to BENBATL who is still rated 118 as a 7-y-o. He's been off the track for the better part of a year since running a close third to the 2020 2000 Guineas winner KAMEKO in the Joel at Newmarket at the end of last September. We know BENBATL often runs best fresh - he was hugely impressive in the 2019 Joel and it's hard to think it's nearly 3 years since he got to within two lengths of a certain WINX in the 2018 Cox Plate.

On his best, they won't see him for dust but time catches up with us all and that's the big doubt.

CHINDIT won the Greenham at Newbury in April and has run fifth in the 2000 Guineas, St James's Palace and Sussex and on no occasion has be been beaten further than four lengths. That's decent form and dropping down a notch to Group 2 must give him a huge chance.

HAPPY POWER was fourth in the Diamond Jubilee and third in the Lennox but he's not got any real form at 1600m while STORMY ANTARCTIC is a much better horse on wet turf.

I take CHINDIT to finally get his decent prize though BENBATL is a dangerous adversary and especially so if close to his best.

Just five stand in the Group 2 Grand Prix de Deauville on Sunday though there's a late supplementary stage in the morning.

Looking ahead. STARMAN is 5/2 favourite for the Haydock Park Sprint Trophy on Saturday week.

[stodge 1,940]

For a change from the usual, I thought I'd raise one of the questions doing the rounds up here.

"How do we get more people to come racing?"

 https://www.bookiesfreebets.co.uk/2020/01/british-racing-attendances-down-for-a-4th-straight-year-in-2019/

Before the pandemic, UK racecourse attendances were falling - basically an 8% drop in four years. 

More than three times as many attended a Football League match as went to a day at the races.

2020 was of course a disastrous year for racecourses with the independent venues in particular seeing catastrophic falls in revenue.

2021 will be better but still a long way from 2019 - the problem seems to be not to get people to go racing but to get them to come back.

Music nights are tremendous for racecourses - in 2019, Newbury had an evening meeting with Sir Tom Jones performing after racing and got 22,000 through the gates. In 2021, without the Welsh singer, the attendance was 4,200. 

The irony is a lot of people come racing who have no interest in racing - whether it's to listen to music or have a party with friends or the company or clients. I suspect there aren't many who attend a football match who have no interest in the football.

One issue is the "difference" between the midweek bread and butter cards and the "premium" weekend fixtures. Racecourses face the same overheads in terms of staff, security, vets, ambulances and the like whether one person turns up or 10,000. The media rights money offsets that to an extent for the midweek cards but not for the showpiece weekend meetings.

Looking at admission prices - if I wanted to go to the League Two (fourth tier) match between Harrogate Town and Exeter tomorrow, an adult seated ticket would cost me £17. To go racing at Redcar tomorrow evening would cost me £18 for a Grandstand ticket.

At Newmarket, tomorrow's racing followed by McFly playing after racing means tickets start at £40 - Cesarewitch Trial Day on September 18th (no music) costs £29 for a Premier Enclosure ticket. If I wanted to watch Millwall (second tier) tomorrow it would cost me, as an adult, between £25 and £30 for a ticket.

It's possible to argue racecourse admission isn't outrageous compared to football but add on catering costs and it soon becomes very pricey. On course food and drink are absurdly expensive and the racegoer is gouged.

Cutting midweek prices to say £10 has been tried periodically but the numbers just aren't there to make it viable - the alternative is minimal catering, the problem is the overheads I mentioned above.

I don't have any answers - there are one or two interesting ideas being floated but I suspect they fall foul of racecourse economics in a way the once-a-year country meeting in NZ doesn't.

[stodge 1,940]

Saturday's Group 2 Celebration Mile produced an upset as 20/1 shot LAVENDER'S BLUE, bred by Benny from ABBA (yes, really) ran down BENBATL in the final 50m

Celebration Mile: 

This was won and lost at the start - BENBATL missed the kick and had to use valuable energy getting into a prominent position which, after a long lay off, left him vulnerable to a finisher.

It was an excellent performance by BENBATL  - the problem is he needs quick ground and the chances of getting that on Champions Day at Ascot in mid October aren't good. He could go for the Joel at the end of September and then go back to Meydan for a winter/spring campaign.

LAVENDER'S BLUE is no mug - she was only six lengths behind SNOW LANTERN in the Falmouth and has raced consistently, albeit with little success, in Group 2 and 3 company. She was rated 12 lbs behind BENBATL but met him effectively on levels. I do think his 118 rating is inflated and he should be 5-7 lbs lower based on this evidence.

POGO ran a career best in third while the expletives from Stodge Towers over the running and riding of CHINDIT could probably have been heard in Invercargill.  Pat Dobbs suffered the old Goodwood dilemma of getting cover as against track position and when the race developed the gap didn't come. Should he have been further forward? Have a look at the above and make up your own mind but it wasn't his best effort in my view. They went no gallop which stacked up the field and turned it into a sprint - BENBATL was forward and LAVENDER'S BLUE had the pace to pick up from the back while enjoying a clear run.

MUTASAABEQ was another for whom the race developed not necessarily to his advantage but he didn't really run home strongly so this was a shade disappointing.

The front two dominated in the March over 2800m - indeed, they ended up ten lengths clear of the others. Winner DANCING KING is being aimed for the Cesarewitch over 3800m while the runner up NAGANO is a gelding and it'll be interesting to see where they go next with him.

Yesterday saw the end of the Deauville August meeting and GLYCON was a smooth winner of the Group 2 Grand Prix de Deauville over 2500m. Whether they'll give him an Arc entry or not I don't know but there's also talk of a trip to a small handicap in the Melbourne area.

[stodge 1,940]

A busier weekend beckons as the European autumn season gets into full swing.

Saturday sees the Group 1 Haydock Sprint Trophy over 1200m. With the dry spell continuing, the ground at the Lancashire track is Good. 14 have been entered and July Cup winner STARMAN is 5/4 ante post favourite. CREATIVE FORCE was two lengths behind in fifth and has since run a fine second in the Lennox at Goodwood.

EMARAATY ANA was runner up in the Nunthorpe but whether he or ART POWER have the speed to bother the favourite over 1200m remains to be seen.

Sunday sees the Group 1 Moulin at Longchamp and the Grosser Preis von Baden at (not surprisingly) Baden-Baden (like New York, so good they named it twice).

[drewandjo 129]

On 8/21/2021 at 9:50 PM, Tauhei Notts said:

Note how the Brains' Trust at Jackson Street, Petone take betting on a hurdle race from Newton Abbott, but not on the Ebor Handicap at York.

It is worry for our racing when our wagering monopoly shows such a piss poor knowledge of what is likely to attract a bet.

agree entirely - I went to the effort of emailing the TAB to ask them the reasons behind this decision, got an automated email to say they would reply within 2 days...and am still waiting

[stodge 1,940]

Looking ahead to Sunday, two Group 1 races in Europe and the Moulin is shaping up to be a really interesting race.

There's a final supplementary entry stage tomorrow and final declarations are on Friday - currently just nine are in the race but it's a high quality field.

The ground at Longchamp seems to be Good.

Three top 3-y-o milers are in the field - POETIC FLARE, who has danced every dance so far this season, last time he was runner up to PALACE PIER in the Marois having finished second with SNOW LANTERN (Falmouth winner) third in the Sussex. She re-opposes and on Goodwood form there's not much between them.

Into the mix comes rising star BAAEED who has drawn a lot of attention after convincing wins at Newmarket and last time in Group 3 company at Goodwood. This is the big leagues and this is his chance to prove he could yet be top of a very talented tree.

The older brigade looks weaker by comparison though neither ORDER OF AUSTRALIA nor LOPE Y FERNANDEZ are mugs at this level.

I'll consider this further on Friday.

Oisin Murphy heads to Germany on Sunday to ride PASSION AND GLORY for Godolphin in the Grosser Preis von Baden-Baden.

 

[stodge 1,940]

11 stand for Saturday's Haydock Sprint Trophy and with the ground set to remain on the fast side, July Cup winner STARMAN is now Evens favourite and to be honest I can't oppose him if he brings his best form to the table.

I can excuse his Maurice de Gheest defeat as the ground turned soft on the day of the race and trainer Ed Walker took him out of the Diamond Jubilee at Ascot when the heavens opened.

The 3-y-o CREATIVE FORCE was only two lengths behind STARMAN at Newmarket and has since run a fine second to KINROSS in the Lennox and you just wonder whether 1400m is now his trip. EMARAATY ANA was five lengths behind STARMAN at Haydock but ran a fine second to WINTER POWER in the Nunthorpe over 1000m. Whether even on this easy 1200m he can match the favourite is debatable but 20/1 each way looks a decent shout.

GLEN SHIEL would need a deluge and while SUPREMACY would have big claims on his juvenile form, his two runs this year have been poor and for all the Cox stable is on fire currently, you're in leap of faith territory if you are on this one at 14s.

ART POWER was also behind STARMAN at Newmarket and he was disappointing in the Molecomb at Goodwood for all they went very quick early in that race.

For those looking for Melbourne Cup clues, just five go in the Group 3 September Stakes over 2400m on the Kempton Polytrack. HUKUM is 4/5 favourite but the field also includes the likes of PRINCE OF ARAN and HAMISH, who was ante post favourite for the Ebor before being scratched the day before the race. Back in 2019, as a 3-y-o, he got within a neck of TRUESHAN and a length and a half of Goodwood Cup runner up and MC fancy AWAY HE GOES. 

[stodge 1,940]

Just six left in Sunday's Moulin at Longchamp with POETIC FLARE and COEURSAMBA taken out this morning.

The central question for this race is how good is this BAAEED? He has to give 4 lbs to a proven Group 1 performer in SNOW LANTERN and this is the acid test as he's never gone beyond a Group 3 for all he has looked impressive. 

I can't have him against the filly and on Sussex form there's not a huge amount between SNOW LANTERN and ORDER OF AUSTRALIA and the latter ran a decent race in the Marois last time so this may be one of those rare occasions where the older horse beats the 3-y-o.

[Tauhei Notts 1,413]

Emaraaty Ana each way.

Hey, Stodge, "you're the man!!!"

[Ohokaman 5,828]

On 9/4/2021 at 8:25 AM, stodge said:

Just six left in Sunday's Moulin at Longchamp with POETIC FLARE and COEURSAMBA taken out this morning.

The central question for this race is how good is this BAAEED? He has to give 4 lbs to a proven Group 1 performer in SNOW LANTERN and this is the acid test as he's never gone beyond a Group 3 for all he has looked impressive. 

I can't have him against the filly and on Sussex form there's not a huge amount between SNOW LANTERN and ORDER OF AUSTRALIA and the latter ran a decent race in the Marois last time so this may be one of those rare occasions where the older horse beats the 3-y-o.

Think BAAEED is pretty special Stodge, absolutely untouched in his four wins to date….4/6 is very skinny odds though but might look good afterwards.

[stodge 1,940]

17 hours ago, Tauhei Notts said:

Emaraaty Ana each way.

Hey, Stodge, "you're the man!!!"

Surprised you didn't hear the shouts and screams down there.

Only had a fiver each way - when it wins you always wish you'd put on a bigger bet, don't you?

HAMISH was a nice draw at Kempton as well after a spell when I couldn't tip rubbish.

[stodge 1,940]

As Mr Rogers might have once opined, I'll count my money when the weekend racing dealing's done.

For now, a quick look ahead to the Doncaster Leger Festival which kicks off on Wednesday. The ground is currently Good to Firm and with the weather set fair, quick ground will be the order of th day certainly for the start of the meeting.

The opening day card is, in truth, unremarkable - there's a Group 3 and the Leger Legends race where ex-jockeys come out of retirement to ride handicappers up the straight.

Thursday sees the quality rise noticeably with two Group 2 races for the fillies and mares. The May Hill is for the juveniles over 1600m. INSPIRAL, trained by the Gosdens, is 8/13 and she's looked very good in her two wins so far especially last time at Sandown where she galloped strongly up the hill to win over 1400m. Despite being by Frankel out of a Selkirk mare, she seems very happy on quick ground. The Kempton maiden winner SPEAK is in the "could be anything" file while Joseph O'Brien has entered four, the best of which looks to be ALBULA who was runner up in the Group 3 Flame of Tara last time.

The Park Hill is known as the Fillies' St Leger - SAVE A FOREST was a long way behind SNOWFALL at Epsom but that's no disgrace and she returned with a nice win in Listed company last time and holds YESYES on that but both may struggle against FREE WIND, who won the Minerve at Deauville last time and for whom the extra 400m looks ideal.

Friday has two very different Group 2 races - the Flying Childers over 1000m for the speedy juveniles and the Doncaster Cup over 3600m for the stayers. ARMOR was an emphatic winner of the Flying Childers and was arguably a shade unlucky when fourth in the Morny last time. The Cup features the usual suspects among the stayers and STRADIVARIUS raised the roof at York with his battling win over SPANISH MISSION but with the latter heading for Melbourne and TRUESHAN unlikely to run if the ground stays quick, we could be looking at PRINCESS ZOE as the main rival to STRADIVARIUS.

Let's be fair - she beat STRADIVARIUS in the Gold Cup and while you could argue that wasn't Mr Dettori's best ride, we know she stays, as the euphemism has it, longer than the mother-in-law. If the Doncaster Cup were over 4000m rather than 3600m, I'd fancy her more but she ran really well at Ascot and 6/1 isn't a bad price each way. 

Last time of course she came off second best to TWILIGHT PAYMENT in the Irish Leger Trial at The Curragh. This was a notable return to form for the 2020 Melbourne Cup winner who had been fairly moderate (and especially so in the Gold Cup) since winning that little race in Flemington last November. I can't have RODRIGO DIAZ but BARON SAMEDI is more interesting - his fifth in the Grand Prix de Saint Cloud reads well in the context of this race - he's won at 3200m and could be the joker in the pack.

Saturday is Leger day but we also have the Group 2 Champagne and the Group 2 Park - both over 1400m.

The point about next Saturday is Doncaster isn't really the main meeting - that honour goes to Leopardstown and the first day of Irish Champions Weekend - much more about that to follow.

[Ohokaman 5,828]

Too good again, a Group One win at his 5th start after being without cover. Not his best win but looked pretty easy again.

That clash with Palace Pier and Poetic Flare in the QE2 Stakes next month will be worth watching if they all front up.

 

[stodge 1,940]

I'll come on to yesterday's events in my next contribution but I'll start with Saturday's action and the feature Group 1 Haydock Sprint Trophy.

It's a race which often takes place on Soft ground but this year the ground was Good to Firm and riding really quick.

Haydock Sprint Trophy: 

This was a hugely eventful race. CREATIVE FORCE stumbled leaving the stalls and that did for him as they didn't miss a beat here clocking 1 minute 09.1 seconds for the 1200m or 1.7 seconds below Standard and I believe breaking the track record.

EMARAATY ANA just held on but that was a 1200m race that was more like an 1100m race given the quick ground. Haydock is, like York, a flat track and the 1000m horses could see it out under these conditions in a way they couldn't on slower ground or on a more undulating track like Ascot.

Nonetheless, a huge performance by he Nunthorpe runner-up to build on that and win this and the plan is now to go to America as he loves quick ground. STARMAN was arguably one of the first in trouble but he needs a stiff 1200m on quick ground - the July Course at Newmarket with its uphill finish suited him in a way this flat track didn't. He nearly won and you can see why connections might be tempted at an easy 1400m say at Goodwood or Doncaster but he must have quick ground and that becomes less likely as we move further into autumn.

The two fillies, CHIL CHIL and HAPPY ROMANCE, ran huge races and the latter in particular, as the first 3-y-o home, ran a blinder and with continued improvement is going to be a factor in the sprint races next year.

CREATIVE FORCE ran home well despite the stumble but he's a 1400m horse under these conditions and the likes of GLEN SHIEL and NANDO PERRADO weren't suited by the ground. SUPREMACY raced forward early but was quickly beaten and is becoming frustrating.

At Kempton, an upset in the Group 3 September Stakes with 1/3 favourite HUKUM outpointed by HAMISH who rewarded followers at 9/1. The winner was coming back after more than 440 days off the track but has clearly lost none of his edge. He enjoyed the Standard to Slow Polytrack probably more than the run up whose form is mainly on quick ground. I think HAMISH is ideal for Flemington and I can't see HUKUM having the speed for a Breeders Cup Turf on this evidence. PRINCE OF ARRAN wasn't beaten far in last place but his retirement wasn't entirely unexpected. He's won his connections in excess of £ 2 million in win and (mostly) place money.

 

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18 hours ago, Ohokaman said:

Too good again, a Group One win at his 5th start after being without cover. Not his best win but looked pretty easy again.

That clash with Palace Pier and Poetic Flare in the QE2 Stakes next month will be worth watching if they all front up.

 

Thanks to @Ohokamanfor providing the race.

A seriously impressive performance by BAAEED who made the transition from Group 3 to Group 1 seamlessly and is right up there in what looks like a vintage crop of 3-y-o milers. From a form perspective, a line through ORDER OF AUSTRALIA, who was third in the Marois, puts BAAEED right on the tail of both POETIC FLARE and PALACE PIER. ORDER OF AUSTRALIA was two lengths behind them in the Marois and finished a length and a quarter behind BAAEED.

It wasn't Sean Levey's finest hour on SNOW LANTERN but I thought the filly did plenty early and it may be a more typical end-to-end gallop such as happened in the Falmouth suits her better than a tactical race. I'd love to see her in the Breeders Cup Mile. 

With POETIC FLARE heading for the Irish Champion this Saturday, the question is whether the clash with PALACE PIER and BAAEED will happen. It's 7/4 PALACE PIER, 2/1 BAAEED for the Queen Elizabeth II on Champions Day but I suspect the clash won't happen if the ground turns.

Meanwhile, in Baden the Grosser Preis went to TORQUATOR TASSO who beat the German Derby winner SISFAHAN by a length. PASSION AND GLORY was nearly four lengths further back in third. For context, he's rated 112 so the two German horses would be solid Group 2 performers in the UK, Ireland or France. TORQUATOR TASSO is 50/1 for the Arc for which TARNAWA is currently 5/1 favourite but I'd expect the market to shake up a lot after the coming weekend.

 

[stodge 1,940]

The early entries are through for Saturday and it's going to be a huge day in England and Ireland.

First at Doncaster - 13 stand in the Leger and the Irish Derby/Grand Prix de Paris winner HURRICANE LANE is 4/6 favourite. Put bluntly, if he stays he wins. You could argue MOJO STAR holds him on Epsom form having finished just in front of him but a lot has happened since early June and it's hard to see the places being confirmed.

It's rare to see a filly in the race and SAVE A FOREST looks out of her depth as do a number of these.

11 go in the Champagne and Solario winner REACH FOR THE MOON has a speed test against LUSAIL and NATIVE TRAIL in what looks a strong renewal.

9 go in the Park and LANEQASH almost gave me a huge pay day in the Hungerford and I'm loath to desert him after that.

[Ohokaman 5,828]

More UK horses headed downunder recently Stodge and Annabel Neasham seems to be the beneficiary.

Top Rank has been acquired by local connections, has won 6 of 12 starts including third behind Palace Pier and Lady Bowthorpe in the Gr1 Lockinge.

Fourhometwo ( Zaaki connections previously with Murtagh ) and Numerian are the other two arriving shortly.

The lure of those Aussie dollars proving irresistable it seems……

[stodge 1,940]

17 hours ago, Ohokaman said:

More UK horses headed downunder recently Stodge and Annabel Neasham seems to be the beneficiary.

Top Rank has been acquired by local connections, has won 6 of 12 starts including third behind Palace Pier and Lady Bowthorpe in the Gr1 Lockinge.

Fourhometwo ( Zaaki connections previously with Murtagh ) and Numerian are the other two arriving shortly.

The lure of those Aussie dollars proving irresistable it seems……

There was a piece about this in the Racing Post last week.

It's about what are called over here "twilight horses" - these are horses often highly weighted in handicaps but not Pattern class. The average rating of horses sold to Australia is in the 90s so not rubbish - good horses who don't get the opportunities over here and frankly have to run for poor money compared to what's on offer in Australia.

Some end up in Hong Kong or Meydan and the other side of this is the movement of Australasian horses to Hong Kong and Singapore probably for much the same reasons UK horses travel.

Case in point - a Class 3 handicap at Happy Valley has a first prize of £84,500. A Class 2 handicap at Doncaster has £16,500 for the first prize. A Class 1 handicap at Eagle Farm overnight goes for £20,000 (UK). 

https://www.racingpost.com/bloodstock/bloodstock-latest/debate-about-selling-british-and-irish-horses-abroad-is-unnecessary-navel-gazing/509331

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Sunday features a stellar card at The Curragh for the second day of the Irish Champions Weekend.

Four Group 1 races starting with the Flying Five over 1000m. This is basically Ireland's Group 1 sprint at this distance and it sits between the Nunthorpe and the Abbaye.  WINTER POWER did it well at York but she's yet to convince me she can do it anywhere else and The Curragh's 1000m isn't as flat and sharp as the Knavesmire. DRAGON SYMBOL has danced almost every dance this season and I just wonder if connections wish they had gone to Haydock. I think he's a 1200m horse or a 1000m on a stiff track. GLASS SLIPPERS won this last year on her way to a fine second in the Abbaye. She ran a decent third on re-appearance in the Molecomb.

14 have been entered for the Moyglare, the championship race over 1400m for the juvenile fillies. This looks open - AGARTHA won the Debutante last time but back in July she was beaten by HOMELESS SONGS who won on debut and hasn't been seen since. VELOCIDAD disappointed when I fancied her in the Morny and while LULLABY shaped with promise on debut most of the others are held by AGARTHA and have a bit to find.

The National is the equivalent for the colts and sees POINT LONSDALE 4/9 to make it five on the bounce. He has looked imperious the last twice and with his main British competitors set to fight it out at Doncaster he should be too good for these.

22 have been entered for the Irish Leger (or should that be Melbourne Cup Trial) over 2800m. TWILIGHT PAYMENT is 7/2 favourite with SIR LUCAN and Ebor winner SONNYBOYLISTON also close up in the betting. BARON SAMEDI looks interesting at 5/1.

Sunday in Paris is Arc trial day but also features the Group 1 Vermeille which could be called the Fillies' Arc. 23 have been entered including SNOWFALL. ADAYAR misses the Niel which might cut up a bit while SKALLETI heads the entries for the Foy, the equivalent for the older horses.