News from the North(ern) Hemisphere

[stodge]

A lot happening up here and after the thrills of Boxing Day, another busy day of racing on Saturday.

The championship races were in Ireland at Leopardstown where the ground remained unusually quick for midwinter - Good to Yielding for the chasers and Yielding to Soft for the hurdlers. The Paddy's Reward Club Chase over 3400m looked a strong renewal and featured the reason for Champion Chase winner MARINE NATIONALE but he faced formidable opposition from MAJBOROUGH from the Mullins yard and FOUND A FIFTY from the Gordon Elliott yard which had a very good opening day.

Another wonderful jump race.

Did the horrendous mistake at the second fence cost MARINE NATIONALE the race? It certainly didn't help and at the jamstick he was only half a length down and for all the miracle Sean Flanagan performed to stay on board, it couldn't have helped.

Plaudits though to SOLNESS who won this last year when 28/1 and was 8/1 this year. He went on to win the Dublin Chase at the Festival in early February but after that he tailed off and it could just be Leopardstown works for him and the likes of Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown don't and they do say horses for courses...

MAJBOROUGH's jumping again let him down as it had in the Hilly Way - it's not that he makes horrendous errors, he's just not as fluent which is vital in speed tests like these. Yes, you could argue he was short of room on the run in but I'm not convinced he'd have been much closer with a clear run.

I thought first time up would be the time to catch out MARINE NATIONALE but he ran a huge race in defeat and he looks the one to be on in the Champion Chase at Cheltenham though IL ETAIT TEMPS, the Tingle Creek winner, looks a formidable opponent.

FOUND A FIFTY was slightly disappointing in fourth but he was poor in this last year and it may be, contrary to the winner, Leopardstown doesn't work for him.

The speed novice hurdlers had their turn in the Future Champions Novices Hurdle over 3200m and plenty of unexposed types on offer including SKYLIGHT HUSTLE, LE DIVIN ENFANT, TALK THE TALK  and KOKTAIL BRUT to name but half the field. The fact the bookies were going 3s the field suggested no one had any clue.

I've tried looking for a video of the race but haven't found one for which apologies. 

Anyway, TALK THE TALK, trained by Joseph O'Brien, whose BANBRIDGE was just touched off in the King George on Friday, was looking like the winner when coming down at the last. He had taken the lead from SKYLIGHT HUSTLE who went on to win easily and continue the sustained run of Gordon Elliott's yard.

CARRIGMOORNASPRUCE kept on for second at a big price while LOVE ME TENDER ran best of the Mullins horses and he's another who, if he could brush up his jumping, could be right up there at the top table. LE DIVIN ENFANT led but found little for pressure and faded to fourth.

In Britain, it was a day of Grade 2 action. At Kempton, the Wayward Lad for the novice chasers looked a tight little race on paper but, despite jumping left doen the race, the 4-y-o MAMBONUMBERFIVE, in receipt of 6 lbs and upwards from the older mares and geldings, won this impressively and this was another huge success for the combination of trainer Ben Pauling and jockey Ben Jones who had won the KIng George the previous day with THE JUKEBOX MAN.

The Desert Orchid for the older speed chasers saw another impressive win for THISTLE ASK who had won the Haldon at Exeter and since joining the Skelton yard has gone up 38 lbs in the ratings winning five chases. On this run you could see him in a Champion Chase and that seems to be where he might go and mix it with the likes of IL ETAIT TEMPS and MARINE NATIONALE but he'll have to step forward another 15 lbs in my view to be a challenger.

At Chepstow, the Summit for the 3-y-o hurdlers saw the formbook torn up and snogged to death as MACKTOAD's jumping fell apart after an early error and the Henderson challenger MANLAGA was a late scratching. The race went to TENTER LE TOUT who had won a small race at Exeter last time and looked outclassed.

Leopardstown had a strong 3-y-o hurdle and I was taken with the third, MUNSIF, making his hurdling debut for Charles Byrnes. He had raced in Britain on the flat for Roger Varian and was rated 93 having won a couple of decent 2400m handicaps. I think he could be one to consider for the Triumph Hurdle.

[stodge]

Sunday saw more quality action in Ireland. Two championship races on the third day of the Christmas Festival at Leopardstown. The Christmas Hurdle over just shy of 4800m saw the first two from the thrilling Hatton's Grace at Fairyhouse, TEAHUPOO and BALLYBURN, remove rivalry and they faced a small but select field which included last year's Stayers Hurdle winner, BOB OLINGER and last year's winner of this race, HOME BY THE LEE.

This wasn't just about confirming the Hatton's Grace form but a serious step forward for TEAHUPOO who looked very good here but BOB OLINGER returned with a fine run to make it a 1-2 for owners Robcour who face an interesting dilemma next March.

TEAHUPOO was seven lengths superior here but BOB OLINGER was a length and three quarters ahead at Cheltenham in March and, as we know, Leopardstown is a million miles from Cheltenham so while TEAHUPOO is 7/4 favourite for the Stayers, I'm far from convinced BOB OLINGER might not be the one to retain his title in March.

BALLYBURN was disappointing - you'd almost think he didn't stay but he ran flat and was well beaten over the last two flights. HOME BY THE LEE ran a decent race in fourth for all he's probably near his 2024 form but others have improved past him.

The Savils Chase over 4800m was arguably the race of the whole Festival with dual winner GALOPIN DES CHAMPS bidding to win a third renewal on seasonal debut. FASTORSLOW had beaten him twice round Punchestown and had run okay on his return in the John Durkan while the Cheltenham Gold Cup winner INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN was continuing his campaign after a quiet return in the aforementioned John Durkan.

A new name enters the Gold Cup reckoning as AFFORDALE FURY from the Noel Meade yard repaid morning betting support (12s into 7s) with a hard fought success in a way which posed more questions than it provided answers. 

This was the winner's fourth outing of the campaign and he had run second to ENVOI ALLEN at Down Royal and he basically won because none of the other fancied horses ran to their form. Indeed, he was fortunate to win as he shifted markedly to his right at a number of the fences and forfeited a lot of ground. To me, he's a horse crying out to go right handed and I idly wonder where he'd have run at the King George at Kempton on this evidence.

I cannot see him winning a Gold Cup on this and I think places like Fairyhouse or Punchestown will play much more to his strengths. I AM MAXIMUS ran a huge race - he was pulled up in this last year and beaten miles in the John Durkan but let's not forget he won the 2024 Grand National and was second this year. On this evidence, you could see him winning the 2026 National but he'll likely carry as much if not more weight this year than last.

GALOPIN DES CHAMPS didn't run that well for all he finished third. The Mullins horses haven't performed to their usual high standards at this meeting and you could certainly argue GALOPIN DES CHAMPS needed the run. He'll presumably be back for the Irish Gold Cup in early February and I strongly suspect we'll see a much sharper performance.

FASTORSLOW was well held and just isn't the same horse here he is at Punchestown while INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN was dismal finishing last of the nine finishers and beaten over forty lengths. On this evidence, there's no point in him even turning up to Cheltenham.

Along with Leopardstown, Limerick in the west of Ireland stages its own four day Christmas Festival meeting. It's not such a quality meeting though for those who enjoy trappy handicaps with big fields on heavy ground, you won't be disappointed.

A few years back, after much lobbying, the meeting finally got a championship race in the form of the Faugheen Novices Chase over 3950m and this year all eyes were on FINAL DEMAND who had carried all before him in Bumpers, hurdles and in one novice chase.

"Sparkles" is perhaps over-egging it a little but there's no denying FINAL DEMAND did this easily. To be fair, his principal opponent, JIMMY DU SEUIL, ran a shocker tailed off in last and FINAL DEMAND was entitled to beat the other two with ease which he did.

How good is he? Short answer, we don't know any more than we did before.

His opening maiden hurdle win was at this meeting last year when he won a 4200m race by fifteen lengths and apart from a third in the Turners at Cheltenham, he's been impressive on all other occasions.

You wouldn't think an extra 600m would be an issue so the Brown Advisory looks tailor made but I'd need to see him perform at Cheltenham (or indeed anyone outside Ireland) before we can start getting really excited.

I imagine he'll go to Leopardstown in early February before Cheltenham and next season could well see him taking on some interesting rivals such as stable mate GALOPIN DES CHAMPS or possibly THE JUKEBOX MAN in the King George (only a year away - it'll be here sooner than you think).

[stodge]

After the busy Christmas period, the accelerator is eased as we approach New Year and the first weekend of 2026.

A complication is a spell of very cold weather with frost and perhaps snow which is expected from tomorrow (New Year's Eve). The two turf meetings scheduled for tomorrow face morning inspections.

New Year's Day on Thursday features five grass meetings in Britain and the main card is at Cheltenham where the ground has dried to Good after nearly a fortnight without appreciable rain. The Grade 2 Relkeel Hurdle over 4000m is the feature and the clear favourite is KABRAL DU MATHAN from the Skelton yard who is currently 1/2.

As you might expect, he's an ex-French galloper who was with Paul Nicholls last season and ended his campaign with a second in the Scottish Champion Hurdle at Ayr in April. We know he likes Good ground and he opened his 2025/26 campaign with a facile twelve length win in a 2200m handicap at Haydock for which he was kicked up 14 lbs by the assessor.

You'd think he would deserve that if not more and this isn't a strong Grade 2 so he looks the obvious place to start. 

In this race last year, LUCKY PIECE beat GOWEL ROAD by three parts of a length and the two return for another match. LUCKY MATCH was tried over fences and was last of three and last of two in two tries so has been brought back over hurdles. GOWEL ROAD might need further on this decent ground. 

THE REAL WHACKER is another whose form has collapsed over fences - he was fifth in last year's Gold Cup but his runs this season have been modest and he was very poor behind DJELO in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby.

On then to Saturday and we have entries for cards which are often lost due to bad weather and you might think someone has got the hint as there are no races of any quality scheduled.

Sunday, however, has a Grade 1 in Ireland at Naas in the form of the Ballymore Novices Hurdle over 4000m. Ten entries of which four are from Gordon Elliott's yard and two from Willie Mullins but the lesser known Declan Queally may have the one to beat in I'LL SORT THAT, who was won three hurdle races including a Grade 3 at Navan last time.

I'm hoping the weather will relent in time for a jump card on Monday at Lingfield but I'm far from convinced.

[stodge]

We may now be in 2026 but there’s unfinished business from 2025 to consider.

Monday saw the final day of the Irish Christmas meetings but before that we had the Challow Hurdle at Newbury for the intermediate novices over 4000m. This is a race which Paul Nicholls has farmed down the years with the likes of BRAVEMANSGAME and DENMAN but it was the Skeltons in 2024 who broke the tradition of the Challow winner NOT following up in the Turners at Cheltenham.

Nicholls had the favourite NO DRAMA THIS END who went off 4/9 in a field reduced to just six by three late scratchings due to the ground being upgraded to Good, Good to Soft in places after ten days of no rain and a cold drying wind.

NO DRAMA THIS END had won well in Grade 2 events at Cheltenham and Sandown and was the only one with Graded race form.

To be honest, we learned almost nothing from this. NO DRAMA THIS END was just too good for these and being given a soft lead undoubtedly helped. I’m not sure he was enjoying the ground for all jockey Harry Cobden said after the race he handled it well.

Trainer Paul Nicholls said NO DRAMA THIS END will go straight to Cheltenham and I’m sure his ebullient owner Max McNeill will be there with a box full of family and friends. As to whether he can beat the Irish, time will tell.

Looking at the horse, he looks every inch a future chaser and an exciting prospect for novice company later in 2026. KLIMT MADRIK ran well in second for young trainer Toby Lawes and I suspect the horse will be a big player if and when getting some proper soft ground.

At Leopardstown, the fourth and final day of the Christmas Festival featured the December Hurdle which saw the top mare LOSEIEMOUTH taking on last year’s winner BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD as Gordon Elliott sought to build on a Christmas period which had netted a dozen winners. BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD had disappointed in the Champion Hurdle and the plan had been to go chasing but with the upheaval in the open hurdle division, connections had changed their plans.

LOSEIEMOUTH had looked very good winning the Morgiana at Punchestown but this looked a bigger test as she also faced her stablemate ANZADAM who had run second in the eventful Fighting Fifth at Newcastle.

LOSSIEMOUTH got the job done but I remain convinced she’s a 4000m type and I would want to be on BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD if and when the two mares meet again over 3200m. I thought the second finished very well and I’m sure there will be plenty of improvement. CASHELDALE LAD, in third, also from the Elliott stable, ran a career best while ANZADAM was a little disappointing in fourth.

SIR GINO looked the business at Kempton and I’d take him to beat LOSEIEMOUTH but whether he would see off BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD and give her 7 lbs is a question we won’t be able to answer until March.

[stodge]

Far from a freezing London Town is Meydan and tomorrow sees another of the Carnival meetings.

The feature Group 2 is the Zabeel Mile. Ten got to post and overnight favourite is HOLLOWAY BOY who won the Chesham at the Royal meeting in June 2022 on debut. His fortunes have waxed and waned since but he is a useful type and was second in this last year before running third in the Group 1 Jebel Hatta, five lengths behind ROMANTIC WARRIOR who, let's be fair, is pretty good.

Last time, HOLLOWAY BOY won a Listed on the synthetic at Kempton and is entitled to go very close. He's actually rated 1 lb inferior to QUDDWAH but the latter, for all he is a Group 3 winner, has done all his best running on a soft surface. Godolphin are represented by AOMORI CITY who was a close third to HENRI MATISSE in the 2024 Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf and on his British re-appearance was third to FIELD OF GOLD in the Craven at Newmarket.

He's not been seen since flopping in the Poulains but the faster ground and turning mile should be ideal and I could see him winning this.

IF he could reproduce his 2024 form when winning the Lockinge and the Lennox. AUDIENCE would be an each way steal at 12s but his 2025 form was modest though he ran at 1400m and this sharp mile might be ideal.

Melbourne Cup also-ran MEYDAAN runs in the 2850m Conditions race and has obvious claims though Kergorlay runner up GOYA SENORA could be of interest running on some decent turf.

[Craig hitchcock]

Thanks very much for the updates, very much appreciated.

[stodge]

The cold spell is starting to take hold - inspections are planned for all tomorrow's turf cards in England and Ireland with a frost scheduled overnight and low daytime temperatures. We use frost sheets and fleeces over here to try to keep the ground warm but if the temperatures don't rise, when you lift the sheets (and that can take 90 minutes or more to lift over a 2000m circuit) the frost gets in to the ground anyway.

Naas are scheduled to race on Sunday and their Grade 1 is the Ballymore Novices Hurdle over 4000m for which nine have been declared. Willie Mullins had a low key Christmas by his standards but his two runners are at the top of the betting market. SAINT BACO is a typical ex-French galloper who had a couple of introductory hurdle runs in the autumn of 2024 but who, on first run for Mullins, won a big field novice at Navan comfortably.

He is the pick of Paul Townend over SORTUDO who came the more traditional route via Bumpers running seventh at Cheltenham before winning on hurdles debut at Cork. Both could be anything.

Gordon Elliott was the dominant training force over Christmas and runs three. CLASSICAL CHARM wasn't as good in Bumpers as SORTUDO but looked very good winning over 4000m on hurdles debut and he's my idea of the winner with the stable on fire (metaphorically not literally). The stable mate LORD ROUGE won a small race at Cork three and a half weeks ago and is another in the "could be anything" file.

This is a very tough race to read with all manner of unexposed types meeting up - CLASSICAL CHARM is no more than a tentative choice.

[stodge]

I'm just going to vent for a moment as I have become annoyed with Ed Chamberlin's relentlessly patronising view of racing. Yes, he wants to promote the sport but if he thinks getting a few more people through the gate at some courses solves all the sport's problems, then he is dangerously naive.

Here's one for him - at Sandown today, there is a reasonable 3200m handicap chase where the first prize is £15,609, In 2006, twenty years ago, the equivalent race had a first prize of £12,526. That's about a 25% increase over a 20 year period.

Unfortunately, according to the Bank of England (who know a bit about money) £10,000 in 2006 would be worth £17,178.78 or rather you would need the latter to achieve the same buying "power" of the former 20 years ago so that's a 72% increase.

That means the race should be worth £21,544 so the winning owners are nearly £6k worse off in prize money terms than their equivalent in 2006.

I looked at today's synthetic card at LIngfield - there's a Class 5 handicap which in 2006 went for £3,238.50 - today's equivalent goes for £4,397. That's a better return - 36% increase over a twenty year period but allowing for inflation the race should be worth £5,570 so the winning owners are out by £1,200 or so.

The problem over here is, faced with returns which aren't keeping pace with inflation, the requirement is for even more racing so everyone can get a tiny cut of a tiny pie and, given most horses are slow, that means more lower grade racing which doesn't attract betting turnover so the circle round the drain gets bigger and faster.

On this day in 2006, Lingfield had a Class 2 handicap over 2400m which was won by POLYGONAL at 33s - he was a fair handicapper rated in the low 90s at his best. Today's eight race card has one Class 4, four Class 5 and three Class 6 races which is bargain basement stuff for a midweek meeting, NOT a Saturday card. 

Courses trying to sell moderate racing to the bookies are finding the bookies don't want to pay or at least not as much as the courses would like as betting shop punters aren't betting on a diet of gruel (and thin gruel at that). One betting shop operator has lost its pictures from the Arena Racing Company as a result of not agreeing a new media rights deal. The bookies are facing tax rises on their FOBTs (what you call the pokies) following the Budget so are looking more carefully at what they pay and whether that represents value for money.

Ed Chamberlin won't talk about that - all he wants to talk about is families coming racing and the atmosphere. Perhaps he should come to a midweek synthetic meeting at his beloved Kempton.

[stodge]

The cold spell has indeed bitten - Sandown survived yesterday but all the turf meetings are off today and Tuesday with inspections at Monday's venues at lunchtime. My friend who lives near the track reckons it will be a formality at Lingfield.

Some signs of less cold weather from midweek especially in the south and the Ballymore Novices Hurdle from Naas will probably be rescheduled. 

Next weekened we are due a couple of Grade 2 races, one at Kempton and one at Warwick but obviously that's a long way off. 

One place not likely to be bothered by frost or snow (unless predictions on climate change are as accurate as my selections) is Dubai and at Meydan last yesterday QUDDWAH produced a taking performance to win the Group 2 Zabeel Mile. I said in my preview all his European form was on slow turf but on a second look he's also best coming in fresh off a break and he certainly looked ready and took a keen hold early.

However, he had plenty in the locker and was too good for AOMORI CITY who, as I expected, put up a better performance on this track and surface (and was backed accordingly into 3s from early 6s). 

I backed AUDIENCE each way at 12s and got a nice little return (enough for a fish & chip supper for Mrs Stodge) as he ran third. Danny Tudhope got the run of the race from the front but the horse had got upset in the stalls and ran with the choke out for 400m and at the business end that cost him second but QUDDWAH was just too strong.

The six European raiders filled the first six places - VAFORTINO from the Charlie Fellowes yard ran well in fourth while conversely HOLLOWAY BOY, the 6/4 favourite, was done no favours by the steady early pace. The one I did like running on at the end was CHICAGO CRITIC from the Johnny Murtagh yard. I'd like to see him stepped back up to 2000m as he's got ability but was outpaced in this event.

[stodge]

Given a quieter few days up here, I thought I'd continue my occasional series of looking at what's happening with the synthetic surface racing through our winter.

As you know, January 1st is the birthday for all thoroughbreds up here so last year's 2-y-o are this year's 3-y-o. The first 2-y-o races of the new season aren't until the end of March but the 3-y-o are in action straight away with handicaps, maidens and novice events. 

A couple to mention - on December 22nd, Lingfield staged its penultimate 2025 meeting and the opening 2-y-o maiden over the mile saw a nice debut from GUILDMASTER from the Gosden stable in the ownership of Godolphin who came home by three lengths. 

He's by Teofolio out of Gearanai who is a dam associated with the Bolgers. That makes GUILDMASTER a full to GEAR UP who was trained by Joseph O'Brien until moving to the Archibalds in 2023. Over here, GEAR UP ended up rated 111 which is decent - he had run fifth in the Dante and tenth in Adayar's Derby back in 2021 but his Aussie form hasn't been so good.

Another full brother is GUARANTEED who was trained by Jim Bolger and ran in both the Irish 2000 Guineas and Irish Derby as a 3-y-o (he was a decent fifth in the latter). 

You'd think GUILDMASTER would be a 2400m horse in time and there's probably a Derby entry somewhere.

The other who caught my eye in the dying embers of the 2025 Flat season was at Newcastle on the 29th when EXTREMELY ZAIN won the 1200m Class 4 maiden by seven lengths. He's by our old friend Hello Youmzain out of a Galileo mare called Alone and is trained by William Haggas. The dam was unraced but is a full to Lush Lashes who was a very good 3-y-o in 2008 winning the Coronation, the Yorkshire Oaks and the Matron in the same campaign. 

Let's be honest - EXTREMELY ZAIN probably beat trees but she looked very good doing so and is very much in the "could be anything" file. Lush Lashes was effective from 1600m to 2400m so who knows?

[stodge]

The immediate very cold weather is starting to ease in the south of England but elsewhere the snow and ice persist and the forecasts for Friday and the weekend are chopping and changing almost by the hour.

The current situation is no turf racing until Thursday at the earliest - even the synthetic card at Wolverhampton was lost yesterday due to snow (they raced today).

Naas is due to stage the Grade 1 Ballymore Novices Hurdle, which was postponed on Sunday owing to frost, on Friday. Unfortunately, the course is still unraceable and prospects look modest at best with a storm set to bring heavy snow to parts of Ireland and central England. 

Saturday's racing, about which local Clerks seemed quite upbeat yesterday, now looks under serious threat. IF heavy snow hits the Midlands and North, it seems unlikely Warwick and Wetherby, both of which are currently frozen and unraceable, will survive while the Clerk at Kempton, is also bemoaning the severity of the frost (-7c last night) and with daytime temperatures struggling, he is far from convinced the frost will come out of the ground in time.

The BHA, not wanting a blank Saturday, are already looking at extra synthetic meetings - Lingfield has an afternoon card and Newcastle a twilight fixture but I'd expect one of the other tracks to be drafted in to provide a second afternoon meeting to ensure a tv schedule.

Meydan will be racing Friday but it's the one card without a Group or even Listed race in January.

[stodge]

Just to update on the situation up here - the immediate wintry spell has eased but a significant storm (named Goretti) is due to move up the Channel close to the south coast tonight and tomorrow bringing in copious amounts of rain and snow to higher ground.

Racing resumed today at Taunton and Ffos Las but tomorrow's remaining grass jump card at Exeter has to survive a morning inspection while Saturday's feature cards at Kempton and Warwick are also facing checks tomorrow afternoon while the rescheduled Naas card faces a 7.30am inspection.

With all that in mind and, even if race meetings survive, some drastic changes in ground conditions, a look at the feature races in the next couple of days.

At Naas, the Grade 1 Ballymore Novices Hurdle over 4000m is due to be run on ground described as Yielding to Soft. Ten have been declared and as stated Willie Mullins dominates with SORTUDO and the current favourite SAINT BOCO and the latter's win at Navan last month was advertised by the second, LAZARE DE STAR, winning at Leopardstown last week. 

The Mullins horses aren't exactly out of form though it's fair to say Gordon Elliott's yard dominated the Christmas Festivals. Elliott's favoured here looks to be CLASSICAL CHARM who bolted up over this trip at Navan on hurdling debut and at 4s he looks value against the Mullins runners for all SORTUDO proabably has the stronger overall form profile having run  seventh in the Champion Bumper at Cheltneham before a facile win on hurdling debut at Cork.

As you can see, there's a huge amount of unexposed potential on show - indeed of the ten runners, seven won last time while the other three finished second - and this could be really informative for the rest of the season but my money (and very nice money it is too) is on CLASSICAL CHARM.

The feature at Warwick where the ground is currently Good, Good to Soft in places (Frozen in places) is the Grade 2 Hampton Novices Chase over 4800m which has six runners. WADE OUT beat WENDIGO at Worcester (try typing that with your teeth in) on chasing denut and then needed all of Sean Bowen's persistence to prevail at Cheltenham over 5000m given a combination of indifferent early jumping and not being able to live with the gallop. The problem here is Warwick is a tighter track than Cheltenham and with the fences coming up close on the far side, WADE OUT won't be able to get as far back as he did at Prestbury.

MOON ROCKET has been backed from 7/2 to 2/1 despite finishing last of two (or beaten in a match if you prefer) when 1/3 at Doncaster last time. He won well on chasing debut but the Doncaster dual turned into a farce with a crawl for 4400m and a sprint for the last 400m. DOYEN QUEST runs for the Skeltons and did it well at Exeter before being comprehensively beaten by SALVER at Sandown last time (LAURENS BAY four and a half lengths back in third).

As you can tell, there are ifs, buts and maybes about all of these and the unpredictable nature of likely conditions doesn't help. Put a gun to my head and I'd probably choose LAURENS BAY who I recall was running on at the end of that Sandown race.

At Kempton, the ground is also currently Good but just four go in the Grade 2 Silviniaco Conti Chase over 4050m and it's appropriate for a race named after a horse he trained to many successes that Paul Nicholls has the odds on favourite in KALIF DU BERLAIS and although he won the Maghull at Aintree in April, on seasonal return he was well behind THISTLE ASK in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter. 

Putting him up in trip seems a sensible move but on his day EDWARDSTONE would have picked him up and carried him but the latter isn't the horse he was (no surprise as he is now a 12-y-o)  and in truth he ran well in defeat in the Peterborough at Huntingdon and this is a similar race over a similar track. Given KALIF DU BERLAIS is half EDWARDSTONE's age you'd expect the younger legs to prevail but I'm not so sure.

 

[stodge]

Time to look back on a fragmented weekend up here.

Friday saw the rescheduled Ballymore Novices Hurdle at Naas. This 4000m Grade 1 often produces one who runs well at Cheltenham, the 2025 winner, THE YELLOW CLAY, was second in the Turners and the 2024 winner was third but the renewal this year was replete with unexposed horses who had shown plenty winning small races round Ireland.

The Willie Mullins stable had ante post favourite SAINT BOCO but the money came for Cheltenham Bumper seventh SORTUDO who was backed in to 2/1 favourite. Gordon Elliott, who had dominated the Christmas Festival meetings at Leopardstown and Limerick, was trebly represented with CLASSICAL CREEK the best of them also supported in to 3/1.

With the hurdle in the straight omitted on both circuits due to low sun, the run in after the last jumped flight was nearly 800m so that made this more of a test of stamina than might have been the case had all the hurdles been jumped but this was a superb piece of pace setting by Declan Queally and you don't often see a trainer riding his own horse to win a Grade 1.

The only one able to go with the winner was SORTUDO who had run well in Bumpers which, as Flat races, are also stamina tests but when push came to shove he couldn't go past.

The front two were well ahead of FRUIT DE MER in third. Neither SAINT BOCO nor CLASSICAL CHARM performed to the level expected.

Whether the winner is up to the Turners at Cheltenham I don't know - it will be a very different test and I think SORTUDO could be the one to take from this for that championship race.

I'LL SORT THAT is by Sandmason - now, he was trained by the late Sir Henry Cecil and won the 2001 Hardwicke at Ascot. He ended his career with Tony McEvoy in Australia where he finished down the field in the Underwood, the Metropolitan and in his final race, the 2002 Melbourne Cup which was won by MEDIA PUZZLE who was trained by Dermot Weld.

Sandmason is known up here as a sire of jump horses - he's had one or two good ones. His best in England currently would be ELECTRIC MASON who is a decent staying hurdler. I'LL SORT THAT's dam is a Revoque mare called Tuscarora who raced at about a mile so you never can tell..

Moving on to Saturday and the cold spell had a final sting in the tail for racing with Warwick's big jump meeting falling to a sharper than expected overnight frost despite the valiant efforts of the groundstaff with fleeces and heat pumps.

Kempton survived a morning inspection and staged the Grade 2 Silviniaco Conti Chase over the 4050m trip. The race had only four starters and with EDWARDSTONE, a former Tingle Creek and Arkle winner, very much in the veteran stage, it was expected Aintree winner KALIF DU BERLAIS would atone for a poor seasonal debut in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter early last month.

Unfortunately, at the first ditch, KALIF DU BERLAIS sustained a fatal injury - it was a bad day at Kempton with three fatalities possibly due to some unusually quick ground - officially Good, Good to Soft in places but despite a little rain and sleet on Friday, the course had dried out due to frost and was riding very sharp for the time of year and with the cold weather, the clerk couldn't irrigate the track to take the sting out of the ground.

With KALIF DU BERLAIS fatally injured, EDWARDSTONE seemed to have a real chance but on the home turn he was last of three, ridden and seemingly struggling but on a day which saw trainer Alan King net a treble, jockey Tom Cannon got a second run out of the 12-y-o and, aided by some accurate jumping over the last two fences, got EDWARDSTONE back up to score by a length and three quarters from MASTER CHEWY.

EDWARDSTONE has won 11 and been placed in 15 of his 36 jumping starts earning his connections over £700k in win and place prize money. He heads for the Ryanair at Cheltenham which will be his sixth successive outing at the March Festival which is no mean achievement.

A quick word on the Sunday action in Ireland where SOBER won the 3250m Grade 2 novices hurdle at Punchestown. If you think you've heard the name before, you have - his last run was when winning the 4350m Queen Alexandra Stakes, the concluding race of the Royal Ascot meeting. Connections have an ambitious plan - the Supreme Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham, another tilt at the Queen Alexandra and then a visit to Australia and a certain 3200m handicap at Flemington in early November.

[Tauhei Notts]

I think a horse with the name "Sober" would be out of place at Flemington on Cup Day.

[stodge]

1 hour ago, Tauhei Notts said:

I think a horse with the name "Sober" would be out of place at Flemington on Cup Day.

Possibly also at Cheltenham, my friend.

The connections are nothing if not ambitious - he's trained by Willie Mullins as well. Currently rated 111 and he had some decent Group form in France with Andre Fabre before being sent to Clonsutton.

[stodge]

With the weather back to somewhere near normal, we should have a full week's racing.

The weekend sees the "Berkshire Millions Festival" which is in its second year. Two days of racing at Windsor on Friday and Sunday with Ascot on the Saturday. The more astute will remember the Winter Millions at Lingfield which was two days of jump racing with a day on the synthetic surface in between (which featured the Winter Oaks, be still my beating heart!).

The problem was Lingfield's jump cards kept getting abandoned owing to frost, snow, waterlogging etc so the meeting was moved to the newly-reopened Windsor jump track last year.

With the dry spell, the ground at Windsor is Good to Soft, Good in places and the Friday card features the Lightning Novices Chase over 3200m which used to be run at Ascot so they've moved the race from a stiff right handed track to a flat, sharp figure of eight course....

Seven have been entered for this Grade 2 - Dan Skelton has two and his brother Harry is on BE AWARE who was second in the Henry VIII at Sandown, being no match for LULAMBA. ALNILAM failed to finish that day after a series of jumping errors and was also poor behind MAMBONUMBERFIVE in the Wayward Lad at Kempton over Christmas.

In that Kempton race, HANSARD was second but well held by the winner and his previous win against a couple of vastly inferior types at Lingfield was little more than a Saturday lunchtime exercise gallop.

Ben Pauling also has two runners - NO QUESTIONS ASKED was second in the John Francome at Newbury and third in the Noel at Ascot and dropping him back to the minimum trip looks an interesting move but he'll have to do better and my eye is drawn to the other Pauling runner MEETMEBYTHESEA who hasn't been seen since winning on chasing debut at Wetherby in mid November.

Ascot stages a decent Saturday card headlined by the Grade 1 Clarence House Chase over 3400m and Willie Mullins has entered IL ETAIT TEMPS who is the dominant speed chaser based on his emphatic win in the Tingle Creek at Sandown in early December. JONBON re-opposes but it's hard to see why he should reverse that form.

Having been impressive in the Haldon Gold Cup and the Desert Orchid, THISTLE ASK moves to championship level and I rate him highly but he has plenty to find on the numbers with IL ETAIT TEMPS and he'll need to take another step forward to be a threat.

The Grade 2 Warfield Mares Hurdle over 3150m has eight entries. NURSE SUSAN won in Listed company last time but over 4000m and the other Skelton entry, TAKE NO CHANCES, is higher rated but usually runs over 4800m having run a blinder in defeat in the Long Walk last time.

Haydock stages the Grade 2 Rossington Main Hurdle over 3150m for the novices. The race used to be run at Doncaster and is named after a former Yorkshire colliery which, like many others, had its own football team and brass band. Running the race in Lancashire feels heretical - twelve have been entered and it's a decent renewal with Nicky Henderson's OLD PARK STAR, who won well at Cheltenham in mid-December, looking the likely favourite.

The Hampton Novices Chase, the Grade 2 lost at Warwick on Saturday, has been rescheduled to the Sunday card at Windsor but new entries have been permitted so we don't yet know the shape of the field. 

[stodge]

A couple of nuggets from a quiet day up here.

CONSTITUTION HILL, the 2023 Champion Hurdler, who has fallen in three of his last four races, has been entered for the Champion Hurdle at the Festival and for a Flat race at Southwell in mid-February. A new £40k novice stakes has been added to the evening card (televised free to air) on February 20th and the cynic might argue this is a thinly veiled attempt to find a race for CONSTITUTION HILL's comeback.

Eight have been entered for the rescheduled Hampton Novices Chase at Windsor on Sunday - five of whom were in the field for the Warwick running had it gone ahead.

Meydan stages its weekly meeting on Friday - the feature is the Group 2 Cape Verdi for the fillies and mares over the mile on the grass. Seven have been entered - top rated is the ex South African galloper QUID PRO QUO who is a 4-y-o now but was a 2-y-o when winning a Group 1 over a mile at Greyville in July 2024.

DUBAI TREASURE steps up in trip from a run over 1000m just before Christmas - she won a 1200m Listed at Newmarket in October and has won at 1400m on the Polytrack but the trip will be interesting for this 5-y-o mare.

 

[Farnarkler]

23 hours ago, stodge said:

With the weather back to somewhere near normal, we should have a full week's racing.

The weekend sees the "Berkshire Millions Festival" which is in its second year. Two days of racing at Windsor on Friday and Sunday with Ascot on the Saturday. The more astute will remember the Winter Millions at Lingfield which was two days of jump racing with a day on the synthetic surface in between (which featured the Winter Oaks, be still my beating heart!).

The problem was Lingfield's jump cards kept getting abandoned owing to frost, snow, waterlogging etc so the meeting was moved to the newly-reopened Windsor jump track last year.

With the dry spell, the ground at Windsor is Good to Soft, Good in places and the Friday card features the Lightning Novices Chase over 3200m which used to be run at Ascot so they've moved the race from a stiff right handed track to a flat, sharp figure of eight course....

Seven have been entered for this Grade 2 - Dan Skelton has two and his brother Harry is on BE AWARE who was second in the Henry VIII at Sandown, being no match for LULAMBA. ALNILAM failed to finish that day after a series of jumping errors and was also poor behind MAMBONUMBERFIVE in the Wayward Lad at Kempton over Christmas.

In that Kempton race, HANSARD was second but well held by the winner and his previous win against a couple of vastly inferior types at Lingfield was little more than a Saturday lunchtime exercise gallop.

Ben Pauling also has two runners - NO QUESTIONS ASKED was second in the John Francome at Newbury and third in the Noel at Ascot and dropping him back to the minimum trip looks an interesting move but he'll have to do better and my eye is drawn to the other Pauling runner MEETMEBYTHESEA who hasn't been seen since winning on chasing debut at Wetherby in mid November.

Ascot stages a decent Saturday card headlined by the Grade 1 Clarence House Chase over 3400m and Willie Mullins has entered IL ETAIT TEMPS who is the dominant speed chaser based on his emphatic win in the Tingle Creek at Sandown in early December. JONBON re-opposes but it's hard to see why he should reverse that form.

Having been impressive in the Haldon Gold Cup and the Desert Orchid, THISTLE ASK moves to championship level and I rate him highly but he has plenty to find on the numbers with IL ETAIT TEMPS and he'll need to take another step forward to be a threat.

The Grade 2 Warfield Mares Hurdle over 3150m has eight entries. NURSE SUSAN won in Listed company last time but over 4000m and the other Skelton entry, TAKE NO CHANCES, is higher rated but usually runs over 4800m having run a blinder in defeat in the Long Walk last time.

Haydock stages the Grade 2 Rossington Main Hurdle over 3150m for the novices. The race used to be run at Doncaster and is named after a former Yorkshire colliery which, like many others, had its own football team and brass band. Running the race in Lancashire feels heretical - twelve have been entered and it's a decent renewal with Nicky Henderson's OLD PARK STAR, who won well at Cheltenham in mid-December, looking the likely favourite.

The Hampton Novices Chase, the Grade 2 lost at Warwick on Saturday, has been rescheduled to the Sunday card at Windsor but new entries have been permitted so we don't yet know the shape of the field. 

Keep it coming Stodge, I for one enjoy reading your preambles and summations..

[stodge]

23 hours ago, Farnarkler said:

Keep it coming Stodge, I for one enjoy reading your preambles and summations..

Thank you for the kind words, sir. Much appreciated.

[stodge]

Onwards and sideways we go and the new year has certainly brought a new lease of life for one EAGLES WHISTLE, a 6-y-o mare by Free Eagle out of an Elnadim mare. 

She began her racing career in Ireland and in 13 races, her best effort was a third place in a Leopardstown handicap in June last year and from an initial rating of 54, her mark fell to 38 when she was moved to Daragh Bourke's yard in Southern Scotland.

Now, whether it's a change of air, scenery or training methods but the mare has found what can only be described as a remarkable turnround - she won three races in four days, two at Newcastle and one at Wolverhampton and her rating has gone from 38 to 58. She's won over £12k for her connections which is nice work if you can get it.

From a miler on the synthetics to novice chasers in grass and the declarations forFriday's Lightning Novices Chase at Windsor are through. After rain yesterday, the ground is Soft, Good to Soft in places (more rain is forecast tomorrow). Just five stand but all represent powerful British jump stables.

Dan Skelton has the favourite BE AWARE (5/4) and having run second in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham in November, BE AWARE was no match for LULAMBA in the Henry VIII at Sandown but that was championship level form and this is by definition an easier race. He holds ALNILAM on Sandown running and the latter was also well held when fourth at Kempton in the Wayward Lad over Christmas.

Second that day was HANSARD who I saw enjoy a hack canter round Lingfield a couple of weeks earlier winning the way you expect a 1/5 favourite to win - comfortably and without carrying a penny of your hard earned. HANSARD has regressed from his hurdling days a little and jusr doesn't convince me.

ROADLESSTRAVELLED is a fascinating runner from the Jonjo O'Neill yard - he started his jumping career winning three hurdles and looked a serious prospect but flopped in the Formby in 2024 and was also pulled up at Kelso in the spring. He's been off nearly a year but of all of these he's the one who looks the potential chaser but even at 12s he has a lot of questions to answer on his return.

It's a dull suggestion and he won't be carrying my cash but BE AWARE looks a solid option.

Over at Meydan, six go in the Group 2 Cape Verdi for the fillies and mares over the mile. They are a cosmopolitan bunch with England, France, South Africa and the Czech Republic all represented but that doesn't mean quality if I'm being honest as for all they may have shown good form in previous countries, in Meydan the likes of QUID PRO QUO and MISS OF CHANGE have yet to show very much. 

Godolphin have two but while DUBAI TREASURE is unproven at the trip, DUBAI BEACH, who was second in a handicap before Christmas, could steal this even off a mark of just 95.

This race reminds me of an Australian wine - probably best laying down and avoiding.

 

[stodge]

A very wet day in London Town and the ground at Ascot has downgraded to Good to Soft, Soft in places in advance of Saturday's feature meeting.

Just four stand in the Grade 1 Clarence House over 3400m for the speed chasers. It is the epitome of a small and select field, however. IL ETAIT TEMPS is the current dominant force in the 3200m chase division having comfortably beaten JONBON in the Tingle Creek at Sandown and it's hard to see why the places should be reversed.

THISTLE ASK from the Skelton yard has been the revelation of the season winning the Haldon Gold Cup and the Desert Orchid - both Grade 2 events - and for all he has gone up in the ratings, he remains 14 lbs inferior to IL ETAIT TEMPS and has never contested a championship level race where he meets higher rated types on levels (it would have been much more interesting were this race still a handicap which it used to be back in the days of Desert Orchid and Panto Prince).

IF IL ETAIT TEMPS brings his form, he wins - put bluntly. If I were playing in the race, I'd fancy a forecast with THISTLE ASK but nothing else.

 Five go in the Grade 2 Warfield Mares Hurdle over 3150m. NURSE SUSAN from the Skelton yard is top rated and favourite after her win at Sandown but has to carry a 4 lb penalty for that success. LA CONQUIERE looks her main opponent and is rather like THISTLE ASK - she looked very good winning a Listed Mares hurdle at Newbury last time but has 12 lbs to find on official ratings with NURSE SUSAN even though on form there doesn't look much between them. 

It's the classic example of the older proven type against the new kid on the block with bags of potential - I'm going to go with LA CONQUIERE who was earned her chance to take on the better mares. 

JOYEUSE from the Henderson yard would this time last year, have been the likely favourite and she finished sixth to LOSSIEMOUTH in the Mares at Cheltenham which is very solid form. However, this season has been disapponting with a couple of defeats in chases and a modest run in handicap company last time.

Up at Haydock, the ground is also Good to Soft, Soft in places and six go in the Grade 2 Rossington Main over 3150m for the novice hurdlers. The Henderson runner OLD PARK STAR has won both his hurdle races and looked very good on admittedly decent ground at Cheltenham. He's clear on the ratings and actually gets 2 lbs from HURRICANE PAT who is also unbeaten in two hurdle races and won a Listed at Sandown last time.

I think there's less between them than the ratings suggest and I'd take HURRICANE PAT as a sporting bet at 2s against the odds on jolly. It looks between these two with the other four runners all having a bit to find on the ratings.

[stodge]

After yesterday's deluge, the ground at Windsor was Soft, Heavy in places this afternoon 

Sunday's card features the Grade 2 Hampton for the staying novice chasers over 4800m. Six go to postnand it's a chewy little heat. Favourite currently is SALVER who runs in first time cheekpieces after a fourth in the Kauto Star at Kempton on Boxing Day. He wasn't beaten far and his previous second in the Grade 2 Esher at Sandown also reads well in this.

MOON ROCKET was beaten in a two horse race at Doncaster last time and the horse that beat him ran a shocker at Windsor this afternoon so I think he's one to pass.

WADE OUT beat WENDIGO at Worcester on chasing debut and then got the ride of the season (so far) from Sean Bowen at Cheltenham to win over 5000m. I'm just worried this much sharper flatter track won't allow him to make the ground if he gets behind in the early stages.

The Skeltons run DOYEN QUEST but he was beaten twelve lengths by SALVER at Sandown and I can't see why he should reverse the form even on 5 lb better terms.

JERIKO DE REPONET is the highest rated of these and was the best over hurdles running second in a warm handicap at the Cheltenham Festival and winning a Listed Handicap at Punchestown but his two chasing efforts have been uninspiring and I'm not sure really slow ground suits.

LAURENS BAY was my fancy when the race was due to be run at Warwick but this is a stronger race and he was behind DOYEN QUEST and SALVER at Sandown.

SALVER is actually decent value at 5/2 in my view - we know trip and ground will hold no fears and he bring s decent championship level form to this slightly lower grade.

[Farnarkler]

I'll be with you re Salver Stodge, the value is/was inviting.

[stodge]

I will be reviewing the weekend action shortly.

However, I will start at Meydan on Friday where the Group 2 Cape Verdi for the fillies to mares went to DUBAI BEACH and the good news for @scooby3051 is this forum is even more popular than he thinks. Having been on offer at 5s in the early exchanges, it seems a good few read my preview and this comment:

On 1/14/2026 at 8:02 PM, stodge said:

Godolphin have two but while DUBAI TREASURE is unproven at the trip, DUBAI BEACH, who was second in a handicap before Christmas, could steal this even off a mark of just 95.

DUBAI BEACH was punted down to 2s and obliged. He took a keen hold with Kieran Shoemark but in a race full of ifs, buts and maybes, he just prevailed from the ex South African galloper QUID PRO QUO who also took a tug but finished well. Ray Dawson tried to set a funereal pace on DUBAI TREASURE for whom stamina was an issue but she pulled her chance away and had nothing left for the 250m sprint up the straight.

I think the second would benefit from a little further and they really trapped off the home turn as the winning time was only 0.17 seconds off race median. Nonetheless, to get a horse rated 95 to win a Group 2 is no mean feat.

[stodge]

From the sublime to the ridiculous...

Having just commented on Meydan, it was Lingfield for me this afternoon and they wanted $42 for admission on Surrey National day. To be fair, it was a decent card - a flat race on the Polytrack, three hurdles and three steeplechases.

I'm a bluff old traditionalist - I believe any race calling itself a National has to be run over 6400m or further - there are a few in the British calendar - the Grand National, the Midlands National and the Borders National to name but three.

However, it now seems every Tom, Dick or Harry county or region has to have a "National" and it seems 5600m is now acceptable so we have races in Lincolnshire, London, Devon, Oxfordshire, Kent, Surrey, Sussex, North Yorkshire, Wales and Scotland to name but a few (the Kent and Oxfordshire races are not even under rules but run at point-to-points and the London National isn't run in London).

Today was the Surrey National over 5800m at Leafy Lingfield which was actually quite pleasant for mid winter. The ground was Soft and thanks to the loss of the Sussex National and the Classic Chase at Warwick recently, a field of 14 went to post and they went 4s the field. Naturally, in trying to land th exacta, I got first and third but my each way saver on INVINCIBLE NAO at 12s got me a few squid. The winner, AWORKINPROGRESS, looks a very decent sort and will head for the Midlands National (a proper race over 6800m) at Uttoxeter which can, by mid March, do a passable impression of the Somme.

On what was a really competitive card, I kicked myself all the way to Reigate for not having a little on the winner of the flat race, BROKEN VOW, at 20s. Why, I asked myself, would champion jockey Sean Bowen be on this unraced type? The winner was unraced when with Kevin Prendergast in Ireland and is by Decorated Knight out of a Medicean mare whose other progeny (mainly by Awtaad) are moderate sprinters.

Performance of the afternoon was by WONDERING WHY, representing the Ben Pauling/Ben Jones combination, who bolted up in the novice hurdle over 3200m. This was, by Lingfield standards, a warm race with three or four well punted including Olly Murphy's ZAMEK, who was third but his stable companion, JAMADA, finished well for second and an entry in the notebook. He'd come over from Ireland where he won a point but had failed at Plumpton in November in a Bumper on ground possibly a bit quick.

Next scheduled trip out is Plumpton next Monday and IF we don't get another dose of winter, a couple of days at the end of the first week of February featuring Royal Artillery Day at Sandown with big guns aplenty...