RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
stodge

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On 8/12/2022 at 9:33 PM, stodge said:

Of the five 3-y-os, four come from England and three are Group 1 winners. Starting with the two fillies we have 1000 Guineas runner up and Falmouth winner PROSPEROUS VOYAGE who overturned short odds on Coronation Stakes winner and 2021 top juvenile filly INSPIRAL at Newmarket. Connections of the runner up blamed the really quick ground and I do think the slower French turf will play to INSPIRAL's strength and on the flatter track I think she has a big chance.

She has, however, to beat the 2000 Guineas and St James's Palace winner CORROEBUS who missed the Sussex due to a late problem. On the figures, both CORROEBUS and INSPIRAL are rated 121 and she gets the 4 lbs sex allowance. It's fascinating and one to relish - you usually expect the boys to beat the girls but INSPIRAL was champion juvenile filly and her performance at Ascot was, in my view, more impressive than his and given the, I think, valid excuses for her defeat at Newmarket, she's my idea of the winner.

She did it really well and will pay for a nice dinner for Mrs Stodge.

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Final declarations are through for the first day at York on Wednesday.

The thunder and lightning have kicked off over England today - up to 3 inches of rain in Cornwall - but the ground on the Knavesmire remains Good to Firm.

7 stand in the Juddmonte  - Aidan O'Brien took out POINT LONSDALE.

The bookies have this as a 3-horse race - the sole 3-y-o NATIVE FLAIR was runner up in the English 2000 Guineas and won the Irish 2000 Guineas before running a close third on his first go at 2000m in the Eclipse. I think the flatter York track will help as I thought he was on fumes in the final 50m at Sandown. A drop of rain won't go amiss either and he gets 7 lbs from the two older champions.

MISHRIFF was dominant in this last year and as we know has won races like the Saudi Cup, Jockey Club and the Sheema Classic but he flopped badly in February at Riyadh before a close second in the Eclipse - a head in front of NATIVE TRAIL and 4 lbs better off. In the King George, his stamina wilted in the final 200m and he was well beaten into third. This is his optimum trip and quick ground holds no fears.

However, he may be up against something very special in the form of BAAEED who is unbeaten in nine outings including the Lockinge, Queen Anne and Sussex this year establishing himself as the champion miler. Now he moves up 400m - most seem to think it'll be no problem and the breeding offers plenty of hope but I suspect this will be an end-to-end stamina test as this seems the obvious way to exploit any stamina flaws as they won't beat him for speed.

The great Frankel proved up to it and I suspect BAAEED will as well - he'll never do anything as flashy as Frankel and he can carry other people's money at 4/9. MISHRIFF should be second - NATIVE TRAIL at 8s is slightly tempting but that's all. The other four are all very good horses and Group winners and in a weak year would have real claims but they are what they are - solid Group 2 performers now taking on the very best and they are likely to come up short.

I'm rally hoping it will be a race for the ages and if BAAEED establishes himself as one of the immortals (in the Frankel/Dancing Brave class) it'll be worth it.

The Voltigeur is more than a support race - it's the credential Leger Trial - and six go to post over 2400m. Favourite is the fast improving handicapper SECRET STATE who is one of two running for Charlie Appleby and Godolphin but lesser known handler James Ferguson also has two and both warrant serious consideration. DEAUVILLE LEGEND won over 2600m at Newmarket but was readily held by yet another Godolphin runner, current Leger favourite New London, at Goodwood over the sharper 2400m. A strong gallop will suit and I think he's value at 4s against the favourite. Ferguson's other runner, EL BODEGON, brings Group 1 form to this Group 2 race but all the evidence is he wants much slower ground but if the storms come, who knows?

Aidan O'Brien runs AIKHAL who was last in the St James's Palace on seasonal debut and won nicely in Group 3 company last time. He's a son of the great Galileo but the dam is a daughter of Fastnet Rock and only ran over a mile so I've a few queries on the stamina front. Charlie Appleby has the Leger at his mercy it seems but I take DEAUVILLE LEGEND to put a slight spanner in the works.

Saturday's feature, apart from the Ebor, is the City of York over 1400m and once again I'm puzzled as to why we have another strong 1400m so soon after the Hungerford. The first two home in the Lennox, SANDRINE and KINROSS, re-oppose along with the slightly unlucky fifth place SACRED.

Next Sunday sees a cracking card at Deauville with the Morny and the Jean Romanet at Group 1 backed up by the Kergorlay and the Pomone at Group 2 level.

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A chance to review the weekend just gone.

A weekend long on quantity and short on quality in the UK and Ireland, not surprising with the proximity of York. 

The Group 2 Hungerford at Newbury over 1400m looked an open and slightly weak renewal. Money came for POGO, including my cash, sending him down to 5/2 but this wasn't his day and he finished fifth in a well-run race which produced a turn up with the success of JUMBY under champion jockey elect William Buick who is if not the best jockey up here then right up there with the very best. He brought JUMBY through from the rear to run down pace setter DUBAI POET who ran a huge race from the front while WINGS OF WAR, a frustrating sort for Clive Cox who as a juvenile had looked a real Commonwealth Cup prospect, running on into third.

TIBER FLOW had been well fancied and looked a real threat 300m down before weakening while CHINDIT looked as though going back to a mile would be a good idea. 

Another to run well was the filly PRIMO BACIO who had last time mixed it with the likes of PROSPEROUS VOYAGE and INSPIRAL in the Falmouth - she was well held there but ran a decent fourth in this lesser grade.

That's my attempt at a link to yesterday's Marois at Deauville which saw top 3-y-o milers CORROEBUS and INSPIRAL clashing. The former went off 13/8 favourite having won both the 2000 Guineas and the St James's Palace while INSPIRAL had sparkled in the Coronation at Ascot before being turned over on quick ground by the 1000 Guineas runner up PROSPROUS VOYAGE.

Prix Jacques Le Marois: 

In contrast to some other occasions this summer, a rare sweep for the 3-y-os. INSPIRAL was back near her best for Dettori but he needed to be fully persuasive to hold the light challenges of LIGHT INFANTRY and EREVANN. The runner up had been ninth in the 2000 Guineas but had chased home TENEBRISM in the Jean Prat and this was another strong effort in defeat and he could yet find the elusive Group 1 while the third vaulted from Group 3 to Group 1 and ran very well. Both the placed horses may well show up in the Moulin next month.

The first three were nicely clear - ORDER OF AUSTRALIA set the pace but was well held in fourth. The main disappointment was CORROEBUS and if I'd backed him I'd have torn up my ticket quite early - he wasn't well away and didn't look really happy at any stage. Perhaps the slower turf didn't suit and we'll never know how he'd have fared against BAAEED on the quicker Goodwood ground. PROSPEROUS VOYAGE was another who looked all at sea on the slower turf while it all happened too quickly for STATE OF REST and you'll have to ask Joseph O'Brien why they didn't try for the Juddmonte.

As it appeared, they ran a decent time - 1 Minute 34.07 seconds for the 1600m - a full 1.53 seconds below Standard so this was a proper Group 1 race. INSPIRAL is 7/2 (from 5s) for the Queen Elizabeth II at Champions Day in mid October and it seems she'll stay in training as a 4-y-o with the Breeders Cup in 2023 the end objective which is all very exciting. She's no BAAEED I suspect but she'll be a big threat to the classic milers next summer.

More action from Normandy today with a rare Monday card featuring the Group 2 Guillaume D'Ornano which went to the favourite AL HAKEEM who got home well enough and earned a 16/1 quote for the Arc but I just don't see him as good enough at this stage. JUNKO ran second while the British raider, MISSED THE CUT, as with some other fancied raiders, didn't seem happy on the slower turf and was well held in fifth.

 

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Day One of the York Ebor meeting took place on ground described as Good, Good to Firm in Places after 3mm of rain on Tuesday.

It was a humid, cloudy afternoon but as usual a strong crowd turned up for one of the North's big meetings and the opening day was as always dominated by the Juddmonte International over 2000m for which six went to post and BAAEED, victorious in the Lockinge, Queen Anne and Sussex, went off 2/5 favourite. He faced last year's wide margin winner of the race, MISHRIFF and the sole 3-y-o representative, the English 2000 Guineas runner up and Irish 2000 Guineas winner NATIVE FLAIR.

Juddmonte International: 

50 years on from the eclipsing of one legend, BRIGADIER GERARD and 10 years on from the making of another in FRANKEL, we now have BAAEED who put up an incredibly dominant and impressive performance on his first run over 2000m.

Yes, of course he stayed it well and indeed with Ryan Moore trying to make it a strong stamina test on HIGH DEFINITION, it made no difference as 600m there was only one horse on the bit, one horse still travelling and that was BAAEED.

He disposed of MISHRIFF who's no mug, with complete contempt and came home by six and a half lengths in a time of 2 minutes 9.3 seconds which, although 0.9 seconds above Standard, was strong on a day which showed the ground to have been well irrigated.

Is he the best since FRANKEL? Yes - how does he compare to that champion - I don't know, it will be many a horse racing forum's winter evening conversation. FRANKEL won by seven lengths in a quicker time on admittedly much quicker ground and arguably against a deeper field but this is nit picking.

BAAEED has won 10 from 10 and hasn't in all honesty had a real race this season - I presume the Champion Stakes will be the final run. Some are calling for him to run in the Arc as a climax and while I think he'd see out the trip, would he be as effective in a Parisien bog? 

MISHRIFF did nothing wrong in defeat and trainer John Gosden was fulsome in is praise for the winner. NATIVE FLAIR was disappointing - I'm not sure he saw out the trip in a much stronger gallop than the Eclipse which was tactical - will they take them to the Irish Champion perhaps?

The Group 2 Voltigeur is often a Leger trial but the winner (which I did mention), DEAUVILLE LEGEND, backed in from 4s to 5/2, has lost his crown jewels so can't run at Doncaster. He was too good for SECRET STATE whose limitations at this higher level were exposed and I thought Ferguson's other runner, EL BODEGON, ran a fine race again suggesting the ground had been well watered and was not riding as quick as other meetings.

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Catching up with my previews, Day 2 of the York Meeting tomorrow features the Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks over 2400m for the fillies and mares.

In recent times, this race has seen class acts like ENABLE, LOVE and SNOWFALL but this renewal is more open. Overnight favourite is ALPINISTA who is having her first UK run since winning the Lancashire Oaks last year. Since then, she's won three German Group 1 races including inflicting a defeat on subsequent Arc winner TORQUATOR TASSO and on her only run this year she won the Grand Prix de Saint Cloud. This all reads very well and she'll take a lot of beating especially, as evidenced by today's races, the York ground is nearer Good than Good to Firm.

LA PETITE COCO moves back up to this trip after winning the Pretty Polly at The Curragh last time. Even though the Knavesmire is riding Good it may still be too quick for this confirmed mudlark.

TUESDAY was a fine winner of the English Oaks but the form signals are very mixed. Third placed NASHWA has won the Diane and the Nassau back at 2000m but second placed EMILY UPJOHN failed at Ascot and TUESDAY herself was no match for the colts in the Irish Derby.

I like MAGICAL LAGOON who did it well in the Irish Oaks and the Ribblesdale and she gets 9 lbs from ALPINISTA. I've had a small play at bigger prices than the overnight 11/2 and she's my idea of the winner.

14 go in the Group 2 Lowther over 1200m for the juvenile fillies but this looks a straight fight between Queen Mary winner DRAMATISED and Duchess of Cambridge winner MAWJ. The former looked all speed at Ascot and this flat track will suit. I think she'll prevail.

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15 hours ago, chelseacol said:

Great stuff Stodge - thanks.

 

Do you have a view on Deauville Legend for the M Cup after the win in the Great Voltigeur ??

That does seem to be the plan and we know he stays 2600m really well.

Back in 2018, CROSS COUNTER was just beaten in the Voltigeur off a mark of 115, got just 112 lbs in the Melbourne Cup and won. DEAUVILLE LEGEND won off 112 yesterday and the 2018 renewal was stronger - KEW GARDENS, who was third, went on to win the Leger and ran a decent race in the Arc. In addition, the loophole which allowed northern hemisphere 3-y-os to be so generously treated in the Cup weights has been closed by the Victoria handicapper so I suspect DEAUVILLE LEGEND wouldn't get anything like the same racing weight as either CROSS COUNTER or REKINDLING.

Even though he's had the cruellest cut of all, he still has plenty of temperament and I thought he got wound up enough in the prelims but the money was down (I got 4s but the final return was 5/2). He's plenty of quick ground form but I think yesterday's run, on Good ground, showed he could handle slower turf pretty well. 

He's been installed as 10/1 favourite over here which is informative but there are so many factors - ground and draw to consider - and that doesn't seem value to me.

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Before we muse on this afternoon's action at York, a look ahead to tomorrow's card and another strong afternoon featuring a Group 1 and two Group 2 races.

The Nunthorpe over 1000m is the only truly all-aged championship race in the UK calendar (the Abbaye is similar in France) and 2-y-os can go up against their elders. It doesn't happen often and the juveniles win even less frequently - just twice in the last 30 years - LYRIC FANTASY in 1992 and KINGSGATE NATIVE in 2007.

15 go to post and the favourite is a unbeaten 3-y-o who has never run beyond Listed class in the form of ROYAL ACLAIM. Yes, she's very fast and we know she likes the track and the ground but this is the big leagues and the draw could have been kinder.

THE PLATINUM QUEEN is the sole 2-y-o and she gets no less than 22 lbs from the favourite and nearly two stone (28 lbs in old money) from the older colts and geldings. She was very impressive at Goodwood blitzing a field of juveniles - her only blip was in the Queen Mary when she was on the wrong side of the track and finished midfield. She has a good stand side draw and could just jump, run and make all but even the best American sprinters haven't been able to do that at York and for all she gets a shedload of weight, I just can't see her lasting out against these older, stronger types.

HIGHFIELD PRINCESS won a farcical Maurice de Gheest that is over 1300m and all the evidence is she needs 1200m to show her form.

KHAADEM was excellent at Goodwood in the King George Stakes and comes here in top form with Ryan Moore seemingly having found the key. He's in the middle of the track but that might not be an issue. He holds RAASEL on that form.

FLOTUS is a very nice filly but again all her form is at 1200m. Of the others, last year's winner WINTER POWER seems a shadow of her former self while my old mate ACKLAM EXPRESS can always run a place at a big price and this track might suit better than Goodwood.

I've backed KHAADEM at 10s each way to follow up his Goodwood win - he looks the one specialist 1000m type with proven Group form albeit not in Group 1 company. If you knew he was going to have a good day, ACKLAM EXPRESS is huge at 50s. 

It may well be THE PLATINUM QUEEN is a bit special - it's one thing beating other juveniles, it's other dominating these physically stronger and more mature sprinters.

8 go in the Group 2 Lonsdale over 3200m - with no KYPRIOS, those who finished behind him at Goodwood - TRUESHAN and STRADIVARIUS - have a chance. The former was brilliant in the Plate at Newcastle and I'm not quite sure Hollie Doyle rode her best race at Goodwood - she jumped early to close the door on STRADIVARIUS and ended up racing fully 600m down which wasn't ideal. STRADIVARIUS loves this track and has won this three times - in 2018, 2019 and 2021. On the last occasion, he fought an epic duel with one SPANISH MISSION who now plies his trade in your part of the world.

Fourth at Goodwood and not beaten far was COLTRANE who has jumped out of handicap class this summer but I think Doncaster is his opportunity with the additional 400m.

In the hope the ground remains nearer Good, TRUESHAN would be my pick but the interesting one against the front two for me is QUICKTHORN who won the Henry II at Sandown and followed up in the Maurice de Nieuil at Longchamp. That's solid Group 2 form so at 12s he's a backable each way price for all he has a lot to do on the figures.

The contrast in races is one of the great things about our sport and from 3200m we drop back to 1200m for the Gimcrack for the juvenile colts. 12 go to post and this looks a very good renewal. Favourite is NOBLE STYLE from Godolphin who is unbeaten in two and beat Acomb third MILL STREAM last time. 

MARSHMAN and CLEARPOINT both come into this unbeaten but in lesser grade and both fit tidily into the "could be anything" folder.

ROYAL SCOTSMAN was third in the Coventry and won the Richmond which is Goodwood's equivalent of this race. He brings the credential form to the table and the question is whether any of the unexposed types will be too strong and he has to carry the 3 lb penalty which doesn't help. 

MY idea of the winner is CHATEAU who was fourth in the Windsor Castle which is looking to be the strongest juvenile race of Ascot this year and he was third at Goodwood perhaps not getting the clearest of runs and is weighted to reverse the places with ROYAL SCOTSMAN and with the Balding juveniles in form, I've taken 14s each way.

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Saturday is a busy day in the UK with six domestic meetings and two Irish cards.

It's the final day at York with 22 set to go in the Ebor worth £300k to the winner. The Group 2 City of York is the quality race, however, and 10 go to post. It looks very competitive with last week's Hungerford winner JUMBY back in the mix. The form from the Lennox at Goodwood is well represented with winner SANDRINE, runner up KINROSS and fifth placed SACRED all in the field. KINROSS is a real 1400m specialist and it may be his turn. SACRED hasn't had the rub of the green in her two runs and she's a real threat with a clear run.

Ryan Moore moves to Ireland for a couple of Group 2 juvenile races at The Curragh which begin the run to Champions Weekend in just four weeks. The Group 2 Galileo has seven runners and Moore rides AESOP'S FABLES who hasn't been seen since an impressive win at Navan in April. Aidan's sons, Joseph and Donnacha, are both training now and the latter has Tyros winner PROUD AND REGAL and he looks decent.

Seven also in the Debutante for the juvenile fillies and Albany winner MEDITATE looks to have all the answers. We'll see how well MAWJ went in the Lowther in my next contribution but she's already won a Group 2 to frank the Ascot form.

Aidan O'Brien will travel to the gates of Hades if there's a chance of a winner and he runs the filly HISTORY in the Group 2 Nonette at Deauville over 2000m. William Haggas has already had a huge week and he runs Ribblesdale second SEA SILK ROAD but I just wonder if the trip will be too sharp. ROSACEA and AGAVE were third and fourth in the Diane and we know NASHWA has gone on to Group 1 success since.

SPARKLING BEAUTY won nicely at Goodwood and she should go well in the Calvados for the juvenile fillies over 1400m. I prefer Aidan O'Brien's NEVER ENDING STORY who did it nicely in the Silver Flash at The Curragh last time.

I'll talk more about Sunday's Deauville card once we have the final declarations tomorrow.

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More York reviews to follow but first a look ahead to an excellent card at Deauville on Sunday as the August Festival concludes (in terms of quality) with two strong Group 1 races and two Group 2 events.

The Morny over 1200m is France's first juvenile Group 1 but there are no local runners in the 5-strong field which I find extraordinary. Are the French juveniles really that inferior? Plenty of Royal Ascot and later form on evidence in a strong field.

PERSIAN FORCE was the winner of the first 2-y-o race of the season in England, back in March. He was second in the Coventry but both he and the Coventry winner were brushed aside by LITTLE BIG BEAR in the Phoenix. BLACKBIRD was fourth in the Coventry and was then beaten in the Railway by SHARTASH (third in the Phoenix) before winning the Papin convincingly beating THE ANTARCTIC, his stable companion. THE ANTARCTIC then beat MANHATTAN JUNGLE in the Cabourg. That leaves THE RIDLER who hasn't been seen since a controversial win in the Norfolk at Ascot.

The lines of form suggest BLACKBIRD is the one to beat though THE RIDLER could have improved a lot and the step up to 1200m (the Norfolk was 1000m) could also help.

The second Group 1 is the Jean Romanet over 2000m for the older fillies and mares. This sees the European debut of a certain VERRY ELLEEGANT and you can give her a real chance on her Cox Plate third let alone her Melbourne Cup win. Some of her recent runs were less inspiring and we'll just have to see. 

Three British and Irish raiders line up against her - ROSSCARBERY from Ireland was disqualified after finishing second in the Pretty Polly but saw out 2800m really well last time. I just think this will all happen too quick for her in a French-style race. ARISTIA ran a screamer in the Nassau chasing home NASHWA at odds of 40/1. This was well in advance of her previous efforts and if she can build on her Goodwood run has huge claims.

VILLE DE GRACE is the other British raider but was disappointing in the Middleton at York back in May. I've always been a big fan of EBAIYRA and was a fine third in the Hong Kong Vase last December but, like VERRY ELLEEGANT, her 2022 campaign hasn't been inspiring - she won a small race at long odds on but was disappointing in Germany last time. 

This isn't an easy race to read with a lot of ifs, buts and maybes - it's a decent place for VERRY ELLEEGANT to start but she needs to run well to be anywhere near a serious Arc contender even in what seems an open year. ARISTIA looks the one based on her Nassau form but she needs to reproduce that standard.

The 3000m Group 2 Kergorlay is the big summer race for the French stayers. SKAZINO won this last year and will no doubt go close but I much prefer the filly JOIE DE SOIR who chased home SKAZINO in the Vicomtesse Vigier at the end of May and has continued to improve since putting up a decent effort over course and distance last time.

Five go in the Pomone over 2450m. Two British raiders both have claims - SEA LA ROSA won the Lillie Langtry three weeks ago after a decent effort in the Lancashire Oaks but she needs a sound pace and this is French racing so it might all happen too quick at the business end. GLENARTNEY was 18 lengths behind SEA LA ROSA but the evidence is he may be suited by the more typical French racing style. JANNAH FLOWER looks best of the locals on her second in the Maurice de Nieuil and she might be the answer to a tricky little puzzle.

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On 8/18/2022 at 8:37 AM, stodge said:

Day One of the York Ebor meeting took place on ground described as Good, Good to Firm in Places after 3mm of rain on Tuesday.

It was a humid, cloudy afternoon but as usual a strong crowd turned up for one of the North's big meetings and the opening day was as always dominated by the Juddmonte International over 2000m for which six went to post and BAAEED, victorious in the Lockinge, Queen Anne and Sussex, went off 2/5 favourite. He faced last year's wide margin winner of the race, MISHRIFF and the sole 3-y-o representative, the English 2000 Guineas runner up and Irish 2000 Guineas winner NATIVE FLAIR.

Juddmonte International: 

50 years on from the eclipsing of one legend, BRIGADIER GERARD and 10 years on from the making of another in FRANKEL, we now have BAAEED who put up an incredibly dominant and impressive performance on his first run over 2000m.

Yes, of course he stayed it well and indeed with Ryan Moore trying to make it a strong stamina test on HIGH DEFINITION, it made no difference as 600m there was only one horse on the bit, one horse still travelling and that was BAAEED.

He disposed of MISHRIFF who's no mug, with complete contempt and came home by six and a half lengths in a time of 2 minutes 9.3 seconds which, although 0.9 seconds above Standard, was strong on a day which showed the ground to have been well irrigated.

Is he the best since FRANKEL? Yes - how does he compare to that champion - I don't know, it will be many a horse racing forum's winter evening conversation. FRANKEL won by seven lengths in a quicker time on admittedly much quicker ground and arguably against a deeper field but this is nit picking.

BAAEED has won 10 from 10 and hasn't in all honesty had a real race this season - I presume the Champion Stakes will be the final run. Some are calling for him to run in the Arc as a climax and while I think he'd see out the trip, would he be as effective in a Parisien bog? 

MISHRIFF did nothing wrong in defeat and trainer John Gosden was fulsome in is praise for the winner. NATIVE FLAIR was disappointing - I'm not sure he saw out the trip in a much stronger gallop than the Eclipse which was tactical - will they take them to the Irish Champion perhaps?

The Group 2 Voltigeur is often a Leger trial but the winner (which I did mention), DEAUVILLE LEGEND, backed in from 4s to 5/2, has lost his crown jewels so can't run at Doncaster. He was too good for SECRET STATE whose limitations at this higher level were exposed and I thought Ferguson's other runner, EL BODEGON, ran a fine race again suggesting the ground had been well watered and was not riding as quick as other meetings.

Baaeed…just brilliant….just a shame we will only see him one more time……😔

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13 hours ago, Ohokaman said:

Baaeed…just brilliant….just a shame we will only see him one more time……😔

Indeed but perhaps not.

Haggas and the Shadwell team are being bombarded by advice. 

One option is the Irish Champion at Leopardstown followed by the Champion Stakes at Ascot in mid October and that seems to have a lot of fans. There's a good 5-week gap between the races this year and given such a dry summer it seems unlikely though not impossible we'll get a really heavy Champions Day card. 

Plenty want BAAEED to run in the Arc but I can't see it unless there's a certainty of decent ground - we know he goes fine on slower turf but it can get very deep at Longchamp so, much though I'd love to see it, I doubt it will happen. That said, were he to sign off by winning the biggest race in Europe, his claims to immortality would be irrefutable.

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The second day of the York Ebor meeting took place on ground which, although officially still termed Good, Good to Firm in places, had clearly dried. Heavy showers and storms which affected other parts of the country (especially the south where the Kempton evening card was washed out) had missed Yorkshire.

The feature championship race on the second day was the Yorkshire Oaks over 2400m. In recent years, this has been dominated by some real superstars such as LOVE, ENABLE and SNOWFALL but this year's renewal looked much more open. Favourite was multiple Group 1 winning older mare ALPINISTA who had been second to LOVE in this in 2020 but who had improved as a 4-y-o winning three German Group 1 races after winning the Lancashire Oaks. Amongst her victims in Germany was subsequent Arc winner TORQUATOR TASSO.

ALPINISTA had returned to win the Grand Prix de Saint Cloud and set the standard among the older fillies and mares. She faced the English Oaks winner, TUESDAY and the Irish Oaks winner, MAGICAL LAGOON along with an interesting French raider in RACLETTE from the Fabre stable.

Yorkshire Oaks: 

ALPINISTA toughed this out and just held off TUESDAY who was getting 9 lbs. The winner now heads for the Arc as you might expect and it would be wonderful for her owner/breeder Kirsten Rausing to finally win the biggest one of them all.

TUESDAY ran much better here but it may just be, as we've suspected, the 3-y-o middle distance fillies aren't up to much. LA PETITE COCO looked a real threat 400m out but for me she didn't stay the trip and I'd love to see her in the Irish Champion next time.

MAGICAL LAGOON was fractious in the preliminaries and I'm not sure she enjoyed the quick ground. They ran 2 minutes 29.92 for the 2400m which was reasonable.

The supporting Group 2 Lowther saw the fancied juvenile fillies eclipsed. DRAMATISED didn't get home and the race went to the 25/1 show SWINGALONG. The second, QUEEN ME, ran home well at another big price but was a failure as her dam, grand dam and great gran dam had all manged to win the Lowther in their time.

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5 hours ago, stodge said:

Indeed but perhaps not.

Haggas and the Shadwell team are being bombarded by advice. 

One option is the Irish Champion at Leopardstown followed by the Champion Stakes at Ascot in mid October and that seems to have a lot of fans. There's a good 5-week gap between the races this year and given such a dry summer it seems unlikely though not impossible we'll get a really heavy Champions Day card. 

Plenty want BAAEED to run in the Arc but I can't see it unless there's a certainty of decent ground - we know he goes fine on slower turf but it can get very deep at Longchamp so, much though I'd love to see it, I doubt it will happen. That said, were he to sign off by winning the biggest race in Europe, his claims to immortality would be irrefutable.

Sheikha Hissa has been quoted as saying the preferred option is the Champion Stakes at Ascot. Don’t think the Irish race is a serious option.

The Arc is a non starter unless there is a serious mind change…Haggas will make the right decision, won’t want any hiccups now…..🙈

Rating up to 135 now, bettered only by his sire Sea the Stars 136, and Frankel 140.

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On 8/20/2022 at 11:55 PM, Ohokaman said:

Sheikha Hissa has been quoted as saying the preferred option is the Champion Stakes at Ascot. Don’t think the Irish race is a serious option.

The Arc is a non starter unless there is a serious mind change…Haggas will make the right decision, won’t want any hiccups now…..🙈

Rating up to 135 now, bettered only by his sire Sea the Stars 136, and Frankel 140.

Yes, it's looking like Plan A all the way which some will consider disappointing. I don't quite see how he achieves a 140 rating at Ascot but had he won the Arc he would have been rated as high if not higher.

The idea is to keep the unbeaten record I imagine and with it being such a dry summer it's hard to imagine Ascot being Heavy in mid October. On decent ground, BAAEED wins and presumably wins well but there will be that twinge of "what might have been".

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The third day of the York Ebor Festival took place on a cloudy but dry afternoon and the continued absence of rain meant the ground was changed to Good to Firm, Good in places.

The feature was the Group 1 Nunthorpe over 1000m, one of only two championship races over the minimum distance in the UK Pattern (the other is the King's Stand at Ascot which NATURE STRIP won so well). 13 went to post and while you could make claims for a number of them, the betting market settled on three. Favourite was the unbeaten ROYAL ACLAIM who had won three races including a Listed over course and distance last time where she had made a very favourable impression but there's a huge gap between Listed and Group 1.

THE PLATINUM QUEEN was that rarity - a 2-y-o in the only genuinely all-aged championship race run in the UK. She had won three of her four starts and had blitzed the field at Goodwood clocking a better time than KHAADEM in the King George. As a juvenile filly she ran off 114 lbs which meant the rest of the field had to give her 22 lbs for the 3-y-o fillies up to 27 lbs for the older colts and geldings. She had a nice draw in 13.

The money came for HIGHFIELD PRINCESS who was backed from 10s to 5s. She had only run over 1000m once before in her juvenile days but this 5-y-o mare had won the Maurice de Gheest at Deauville over 1300m last time having run a decent sixth in the Platinum Jubilee over 1200m at Ascot.

Nunthorpe: 

Not a race for the low drawn horses with the first five home drawn 14,13, 11,7 and 15. 

HIGHFIELD PRINCESS is a wonderful mare whose improvement has been extraordinary. She won an Ayr handicap as a 3-y-o off 58 and is now rated 113 so that's nearly four stone in improvement. You don't see that every day. She now has options such as the Abbaye, the Champions Day Sprint and the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint and it'll be fascinating to see where connections take her - she is now worth a fortune as a broodmare.

THE PLATINUM QUEEN trousered £114k for her connections with a fine run in second. She hung left under pressure but I don't think it made any difference. The Abbaye, like the Nunthorpe, allows juveniles so that might be an option but a race like the Flying Childers at Doncaster looks ideal.

EMARAATY ANA ran his best race in an age coming home a strong third - this one won the Haydock Sprint last year and that's the obvious target. If he turns up in this form, he'll take a lot of beating. KHAADEM ran a decent race in fourth - possibly not in the best part of the track and he simply couldn't live with the first two in the final 200m.

DRAGON SYMBOL was much better in fifth and could well give EMARAATY ANA a race at Haydock - ROYAL ACLAIM was sixth on the wrong side of the course. She looks a fast ground type so I wonder where we'll see her next.

HIGHFIELD PRINCESS ran 57.32 seconds (a notch below Standard) and a highly credible time.

The Gimcrack was the supporting Group 2 for the juvenile colts over 1200m and this year the established form lines from Ascot, Newmarket and Goodwood were swept aside as two unbeaten types dominated. Godolphin's NOBLE STYLE, a son of Kingman, came out on top. He had been ante post for the Coventry before a late setback ruled him out and it may have been a blessing in disguise not to have had that hard a race. He's now at the front of the Godolphin juveniles and is priced at 2/1 for the Middle Park and 9/2 for the Dewhurst.

MARSHMAN chased him home and this son of Harry Angel lost nothing in defeat. Karl Burke had seen his filly DRAMATISED flop in the Lowther but still had the winner and it was 2-3 for the northern trainer with COLD CASE in third. MARSHMAN had impressed a lot of the northern clockwatchers at Thirsk last time and this was another strong effort - he looks all speed and you'd think the Commonwealth Cup is the obvious target while the winner might yet be a Guineas horse. Once again, Stodge's each way selection, CHATEAU, finished fourth.

To be fair, I wasn't that bothered by the later reverses having made my money on QUICKTHORN in the Lonsdale. I'd backed him each way at 12s ante post but with STRADIVARIUS taken out due to a foot problem and TRUESHAN taken out due to the ground, the race cut up badly. QUICKTHORN came in to 9/4 second best behind COLTRANE but I hadn't anticipated a brilliant front running ride from Tom Marquand which took apart the field and led to a 14-length success.

Let's not forget QUICKTHORN won the Henry II at Sandown and the Maurice de Nieuil at Longchamp last time so he's no mug for all he has swerved the big guns in the staying division. They will be well aware of him now and he's in both the Irish Leger and the Stayers on Champions Day (for which he is 8s). This was precision front-running riding with regular fractions around 12.5 seconds and my fellow backers were forming an orderly queue with 600m to go.

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Before I begin the weekend look back, just a mention of what's coming up at the end of the week.

As might be expected with a Bank Holiday, it's all about quantity than quality - the Group 2 Celebration Mile at Goodwood has drawn just 5 entries and MUTASAABEQ, who chased home CHINDIT in the Summer Mile at Ascot last time, is 8/11 and that's no surprise.

15 have been entered for Sunday's Group 2 Grand Prix de Deauville, a race marking the end of the August Festival. ADDEYBB, who will be known to many on here, is one of the entries.

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The fourth and final day of the Ebor Festival at York doesn't have a Group 1 race currently but many over here think it's only a matter of time before the City of York gets championship status and another strong renewal this year will have done little to dissuade those who see this as Britain's equivalent to the Foret.

It had been a quiet meeting for Frankie Dettori but needless to say the old showman can never be counted out and he produced a peach to win on KINROSS who followed up his second in the Lennox when he'd just failed to collar SANDRINE close home. York is perhaps a fairer track than Goodwood and the long straight allowed Dettori to pick his time and make his move with perfection as leaders POGO and ART POWER battled for supremacy. 

The winning margin was a cosy length and a quarter but I'm left wondering why, after a lacklustre effort just a few days earlier in the Hungerford, POGO bounced back so well. Horses aren't machines and it may just be the run of the race at Newbury didn't suit. SANDRINE looked magnificent in the prelims and ran a fine race though, despite her Goodwood win, I'm of the view either a stiff 1400 or an easy 1600 are her optimum.

ART POWER was having his best run over 1400m, hadn't been seen since last October and supposedly preferred sower ground so on all measures this was a fine effort and you'd think the likely slower ground in Paris would be right up his street (or boulevard if you prefer). Conversely, AL SUHAIL didn't look that good in the prelims but ran okay in fifth.

SACRED failed again and I just wonder if she needs a confidence booster after mixing it with the very best at 1200 and now 1400m. The Hungerford winner JUMBY trailed home last but this was very much a tale of two races - at Newbury they went hard which favoured those coming off the pace but here they went slow early and quickened from 400m down which allowed the specialists their chance.

It's my favourite division currently and I look forward to KINROSS and others going to the Foret and considering the Breeders Cup Mile which looks ideal.

Dettori hadn't finished there and just 40 minutes later he was back in the winners' enclosure after the feature Ebor on TRAFESMAN for John Gosden and Godolphin and of course he has history with them both. TRADESMAN is by Golden Horn out of a Monsun mare so stamina will be his forte and he followed up a 2800m Goodwood handicap win here in a much stronger race. I think the Ebor winner gets a place at Flemington in November but TRADESMAN is in the Cesarewitch and the Long Distance Cup on Champions Day so I suspect he won't be heading to your part of the world.

At Sandown, the Group 3 Solario for the juvenile colts over 1400m is a race which Godolphin has used for some of their very good types including Kingman, Masar and Too Darn Hot and in SILVER KNOTT they seem to have yet another juvenile star. He came home by three lengths beating a small but select field including a coupe of well-regarded unbeaten types.

On then to Sunday at Deauville and the Jean Romanet has been discussed elsewhere. The other Group 1 was the Morny which incredibly had no local runner - PERSIAN FORCE, runner up in both the Coventry and the Phoenix, took on BLACKBEARD who had been fourth behind PERSIAN FORCE at Ascot but had improved since winning in France last time.

Prix Morny: 

Ryan Moore had to show all his horsemanship skills at the start but in the race BLACKBEARD was always prominent and I thought held off PERSIAN FORCE's late challenge fairly easily. The pair were nicely ahead of THE ANTARCTIC who is no slouch. Whether the front two are Guineas types I'm not sure and the late developing juveniles may well improve past them in the next couple of months.

On a good day for the visitors, SEA LA ROSA won the Pomone for William Haggas but the Kergorlay remained at home courtesy of GOYA SENORA who reversed form with JOIE DE SOIR from three weeks earlier.  SKAZINO got a little outpaced in third but this was a decent Cadran trial.

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Harry has already mentioned this but it looks as though despite field sizes at their lowest since 1995 we will still have as many fixtures (1,478) in 2023 as in 2022 (1,482).

More fixtures doesn't necessarily mean more races and the 8-race cards of the immediate post-pandemic period have become 6-race cards for much of the summer but the number of races with 8 or fewer runners is growing, match races are increasing in number and the consolation race for the big handicap at Ripon failed to get a single runner.

There's a lot of talk behind the scenes of action but it seems no racecourse and no racecourse owning group is prepared to lose a single fixture so 2023 will see more uncompetitive races and with fuel and energy costs rising I simply don't understand the reasoning.

I would can all floodlit racing from November 1st and if that means betting shops close early think how much will be saved on power and lighting - there's no demand for betting on horses or dogs, playing what you call "the pokies" may be different.

One or two subtle changes to the mix next year with the Leger Festival moving from Wednesday-Saturday to Thursday-Sunday - that could only have happened if a deal has been done with the Irish over their Champions Weekend.  

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A right deluge of rain over southern and eastern England overnight and through this morning. 

Between thunderstorms and heavy persistent rain, Newmarket had 38mm of rain and Goodwood 30mm .

Both stage weekend meetings and at both venues the ground has changed from Good to Firm to Soft.

I suspect it will dry out a fair bit before Saturday and could well be near genuine Good ground. Just 5 stand for the Group 2 Celebration Mile at Goodwood and favourite MUTASAABEQ has eased back to Evens with the softening ground but he's got form on soft and heavy surfaces and if the ground dries as I suspect it won't matter.

The money has come for the lightly raced JADOOMI who was once third to VAN GOGH in the Criterium de Saint Cloud on Heavy ground. That was two years ago but he won his reappearance race at the end of July on good to soft ground. I still think MUTASAABEQ is the one to beat and if he gets to 5/4 or bigger he'll start looking tempting.

Derby runner up HOO YA MAL, who was bought by Gai Waterhouse for new Australian owners, runs in the 2800m March Stakes. He's now with young trainer George Boughey but his run in the Gordon wasn't that inspiring.

 

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Just five as well in Sunday's Grand Prix de Deauville. Of most interest is the Japanese runner STAY FOOLISH who is 33/1 for the Arc - he was nine lengths between TITLEHOLDER (the current 6/1 favourite for Europe's great race in early October) in the Takarazuka Kinen at Hanshin at the end of June.

BOTANIK beat GLYCON a neck in a Group 3 over course and distance three weeks ago - there's very little between them but the former is improving quickly under the handling of Andre Fabre.

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The latest is BAAEED might yet go for the Arc 6 weeks today.

The Irish Champion has been ruled out and the options seem to be:

a) The Arc but only if the ground at Longchamp is decent - they won't risk him on a Parisien bog. That said, it's been a very dry summer in western Europe and short of a September deluge, I think it could well be good or just on the slow side and I think if it's no worse they'll run him.

b) Champion Stakes - two weeks later at Ascot. Ascot can also be very soft but there is a contingency to run the round course flat races on the hurdles track and the current state of the hurdles course would be Hard and unraceable so it's going to be the most Biblical of September inundations to turn the ground very slow.

BAAEED is priced up at 3/1 favourite for the Arc with one bookie and 4/6 (non runner no bet) with another - the shorter price takes out the risk of the horse not running. 

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Saturday sees the Group 1 Haydock Sprint Trophy over 1200m. With Maurice de Gheest and Nunthorpe winner HIGHFIELD PRINCESS ruled out, it looks a very open renewal.

19 are in at the five day stage and Maurice de Gheest runner up MINZAAL is 7/2 favourite. The Platinum Jubilee winner NAVAL CROWN is 9/2 with strong finishing Nunthorpe third and last year's winner EMARAATY ANA at 13/2 and the 1400m specialist KINROSS at 8s. GO BEARS GO catches my eye at 12s.

The other big race next weekend is Sunday's Prix du Moulin at Longchamp over 1600m. 17 have ben entered including MALJOOM and THE REVENANT.

More on these races and any other news as the week goes on. 

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