RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
stodge

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BAAEED is very good no question and arguably the best since FRANKEL but he'll need to prove it over 2000m at York and presumably Ascot. If he does, he'll go off to stud as a real prospect and Shadwell could be on the cusp of a real re-generation if BAAEED can start producing some good progeny.

NASHWA could be one who is visited by BAAEED one day and she did it well in the Nassau this afternoon.

On Saturday, 8 go in the 2800m Group 2 Lillie Langtry for the fillies and mares. Only two 3-y-os of whom EMILY DICKENSON is the better. She was well held in both the Lingfield Oaks Trial and the Irish Oaks and while I suspect another 400m will help, I don't rate her that highly. Favourite is SEA LA ROSA who was beaten in the Lancashire Oaks on slow ground. The winner, FREE WIND, is a very good type and I think back on quick ground SEA LA ROSA is going to take a lot of beating.

YESYES makes her seasonal debut - she was further behind FREE WIND in last year's Park Hill and ran okay in the Royallieu which is a Group 1 so she has a chance if fully fit but you just wonder if she is being prepared for an autumn campaign.

EBAIYRA has been declared for the Group 1 Bayerisches Zuchtrennen over 2000m at Munich on Sunday - she had a nice easy win in Listed company last time and I take her to beat the locals.

9 are left in Tuesday's Rothschild at Deauville - apologies, I thought it was this Sunday but the Normandy season is opening at Clairefontaine, just down the road from Deauville. Among the other left in the Rothschild are Jean Prat winner TENEBRISM and Duke of Cambridge winner SAFFRON BEACH and of course a certain VERRY ELLEEGANT.

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Haggas and Crowley have no fears about the 2000m, he travels so well in his races and has a turn of foot most don’t have.

His breeding suggests he will have no trouble with the distance either.  
Sea the Stars currently €150,000 at Stud ( that’s NZ $240,000 ) so they will be hoping he stays unbeaten.

🙏

 

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Need to prove it !!!     FFS man… can’t you see a stayer when it’s running in front of your eyes 

He’s ten lengths better than those milers ( if they ever put a hood on him ) he’s only doing 3/4 pace in the Sussex, and the way he races so relaxed off the bridle he’ll be 15 lengths better at 2000 

He’ll win both the 2000m races by whatever he wants to on the day, unless he’s over the top at the back end in his last go, or something goes amiss in the race 

 

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@poundforpoundgives me a good lead in to the review of day two at Goodwood.

Once again, a dry but cloudy afternoon and the ground was changed after the first to Good to Firm, Good in places.

The day's feature was the Group 1 Sussex over 1600m. A small field and the race was undoubtedly diluted by the late defection of the 2000 Guineas winner CORROEBUS whose setback appears minor and who is now heading for the Marois at Deauville next month.

BAAEED, the best horse in the world on some measures, went off 1/6 not that he was facing a field of tenth-rate animals. ALCOHOL FREE had won the Sussex last year and won the July Cup last time while ORDER OF AUSTRALIA was a Breeders Cup Mile winner. Even though CORROEBUS was absent, Godolphin still ran MODERN GAMES, the Poulains winner who was third in the Jockey Club.

@Ohokamanhas provided the video upthread so I'll not repeat.

A dominant performance by BAAEED but as others have said, plenty of evidence the step up to 2000m not only will be fine but should bring about further improvement. 

BATHRAT LEON set a solid pace without going off too quick and the fractions were sensible. Jim Crowley kept it sensible on the favourite giving himself all the room he needed and he moved up with little problem. In the end, MODERN GAMES gave him a race and I've not heard Charlie Appleby's post race thoughts on whether he thought CORROEBUS would have been even more of a threat but the Poulains winner, despite being rated a stone inferior (though was getting 8 lbs weight for age from the winner) ran home well for second.

It all went wrong for ALCOHOL FREE - I thought she raced a little keen and headed for the inside at the cut-away 400m out but it was congested down there with the weakening pacesetter and she didn't really get a clear run and finished an okay third. I'd run her in the Foret or the Breeders Cup Mile.

BATHRAT LEON didn't quite get home but still finished fourth just in front of ANGEL BLEU who wants it much softer. CHINDIT finished a bit nearer BAAEED than he had at Ascot while ORDER OF AUSTRALIA was a bit further back but overall the Queen Anne form held up well.

BAAEED presumably heads to the Juddmonte and then to the Champion Stakes and, whatever some might say, he has to do it, just as FRANKEL had to, over 400m further. From having looked like the race of the decade a few weeks ago, the Juddmonte has cut up a bit. The current betting as follows:

4/7 BAAEED, 11/4 MISHRIFF, 6/1 NATIVE TRAIL, 8/1 STATE OF REST, 12/1 ALENQUER and NASHWA

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Khaadem running tonight Stodge but I must be missing something.

Did he not run in Nature Strip’s race at Ascot where he lost the jock and finished alongside NS after blowing the start ??
 

His form does not show it so I’m a bit worried its a different horse…..:rolleyes:

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9 hours ago, Ohokaman said:

Khaadem running tonight Stodge but I must be missing something.

Did he not run in Nature Strip’s race at Ascot where he lost the jock and finished alongside NS after blowing the start ??
 

His form does not show it so I’m a bit worried its a different horse…..:rolleyes:

Very good call, my friend. KHAADEM did it well.

Yes, he was deemed a non-runner after getting agitated in the stalls, rearing back and leaving his jockey in the superstructure. That's the rule over here - not the same in all jurisdictions - so if you back the horse you get your money back.

He raced with the field and crossed the line with NATURE STRIP but he was carrying 9 stone less than the winner so from a handicapping point of view not significant. 

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VERRY ELLEEGANT taken out of the Rothschild this morning - just 7 left in Tuesday's first Group 1 race of the Deauville August Festival.

TENEBRISM and SAFFRON BEACH both stand in another intriguing clash of the generations.

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2 hours ago, stodge said:

Very good call, my friend. KHAADEM did it well.

Yes, he was deemed a non-runner after getting agitated in the stalls, rearing back and leaving his jockey in the superstructure. That's the rule over here - not the same in all jurisdictions - so if you back the horse you get your money back.

He raced with the field and crossed the line with NATURE STRIP but he was carrying 9 stone less than the winner so from a handicapping point of view not significant. 

$10 and $3 very good money here Stodge, and with Ryan Moore riding too….👍

Thought that 150/1 winner Orbaan was impressive, won like a $2 shot. Form not that bad either.

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Time to look back on Day 3 at Goodwood.

The weather remained dry but cloudy and the ground, helped by overnight watering, remained Good to Firm, Good in places.

The feature was the third and final Group 1 of the meeting, the Nassau, over 2000m for the fillies and mares. It's the first main inter-generational clash for the female horses at this distance.

Favourite was the 3-y-o NASHWA, who had failed to stay when third in the English Oaks but had followed up in the Diane at Chantilly. She went off at 6/5 - the older contingent didn't look that strong with the best of them probably DREAMLOPER who had won the Ispahan but had been well held in the Pretty Polly.

Nassau Stakes: 

Quite a rough race with ROGUE ENCOUNTER done no favours but in the end NASHWA did this impressively. She quickened into a quickening pace which takes some doing and went past all of them to win. The second and third were second and first in the Middleton at York in May but it's a big jump from that to a Group 1 but both the older fillies ran with credit albeit well held by the winner.

DREAMLOPER was up the front but faded tamely and FONTEYN did too much too early and ran out of steam in the final 100m. I'd certainly give her another chance at this trip.

NASHWA is in the Juddmonte but whether connections will fancy going toe-to-toe with BAAEED I'm not sure - there aren't that many all-female 2000m Group 1 races - one option might be the Irish Champion which would suit this filly I think. She won't run at 2400m again.

The supporting Group 2 was the Richmond for the colts over 1200m and another favourite went in with Coventry third ROYAL SCOTSMAN (backed from early 7/4 to 5/6) running on really well. I though the second, AL KARRAR, who had come straight from a maiden, ran with a lot of credit. As for CHATEAU, I'm not sure he got the best of runs down by the rail but that only cost him possibly second, not the race. ROYAL SCOTSMAN will probably go for the Gimcrack and then the Middle Park.

Elsewhere, I'll mention the 2400m Gordon for the staying 3-y-o which saw NEW LONDON score and become the new Leger favourite - his sole flop this season was on soft ground at Chester - but we'll know a lot more after the Voltigeur next month. We had the rare sight of Ryan Moore losing his whip on expensive Aussie purchase HOO YA MAL, now in the care of Gai Waterhouse, who was at the track. I thought the horse got tired in the final 100m and will come on. If we're thinking Flemington clues, DEAUVILLE LEGEND is another heading for Australia by all accounts and he ran a fine race in second.

The Gordon was run in 2:33.80 seconds - 1.3 seconds below standard - so it was a serious race over the trip.

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Unfortunately the Nassau was probably one of the weakest Group ones for that race in recent years. That's what's becoming apparent in the UK this year. Seems as though the conveyor belt of sales of young horses may be having an effect on the pool of good horses in certain races, coupled with the decrease in breeding numbers. Where is this heading?

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10 hours ago, Berri said:

Unfortunately the Nassau was probably one of the weakest Group ones for that race in recent years. That's what's becoming apparent in the UK this year. Seems as though the conveyor belt of sales of young horses may be having an effect on the pool of good horses in certain races, coupled with the decrease in breeding numbers. Where is this heading?

Happy to debate this with you. 

Not sure I agree - both the Eclipse and the King George had small but high quality fields and if you count the Irish and French Group 1 races there are occasionally similar races in direct competition.

The 3-y-os appear to be a mixed bunch - VADEMI and NASHWA have turned out decent and have beaten their elders. We probably won't see DESERT CROWN this season and the jury is still out on CORROEBUS. We have an exceptional older horse in BAAEED - by many measures, the best since FRANKEL - at 1600m and 2000m.

The Goodwood Cup was an excellent staying race with the top three in the staying division all meeting (and there's some nice young stayers coming through such as MOJO STAR)  and I'd argue we got a decent field in the King's Stand for all NATURE STRIP was far superior. 

Yes, there is an issue with high-rated horses being sold to other jurisdictions - quite apart from the Derby runner-up going to OZ, we have THESIS off to Hong Kong (and he won't be the only one) and the usual sales to America. Money talks, horses walk as they say and the money offered to some owners from other jurisdictions is very high.

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Day Four of the Goodwood Festival and strangely among festivals the quality deteriorates over time. 

The first three days all have Group 1 races - the last two don't. Day One has a group 1 and two group 2 races - Days Four and Five just have a single Group 2.

Goodwood isn't Royal Ascot and doesn't pretend to be - it's more like the Newmarket July Festival with a couple of extra days added. It's what it is and oddly enough the crowds increase as the week goes on.

Anyway, the feature on the Friday was the King George Qatar Stakes, a Group 2 over 1000m. The sprinting division up here currently isn't strong and NATURE STRIP was clearly superior to anything we had to offer at Ascot. This was the first year since 2016 the race was run without BATTAASH in the field.

It looked wide open on paper with horses who had run in the King's Stand at Ascot such as ACKLAM EXPRESS and LAZULI, horses who should have run in the King's Stand like KHAADEM, improving types coming out of handicap and Listed class like RAASEL and potential 3-y-os such as CATURRA. They went 3s the field with RAASEL heading the market in what looked an open race.

King George Qatar Stakes: 

Whether it was Plan A to miss the kick and wait in behind or not I don't know but a good jockey always needs a Plan B in case Plan A goes wrong and Ryan Moore did this really well on KHAADEM holding up the horse, getting position and quickening to win well.

Was RAASEL unlucky? I'm not sure - he ran home well and is clearly improving fast but I always thought the winner had this in hand. 

A real bunch finish with the first six split by a couple of lengths - perhaps ROYAL ACLAIM will show in the Nunthorpe she's the clear best but the sprinting division lacks quality currently and as a result races like this are wide open.

As an aside, Saeed Bin Suroor was interviewed mid afternoon - his good juvenile filly MAWJ goes for the Cheveley Park but his very good older miler REAL WORLD, who chased home BAAEED in the Queen Anne, will go to Moonee Valley for the Cox Plate.

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5 hours ago, stodge said:

Happy to debate this with you. 

Not sure I agree - both the Eclipse and the King George had small but high quality fields and if you count the Irish and French Group 1 races there are occasionally similar races in direct competition.

The 3-y-os appear to be a mixed bunch - VADEMI and NASHWA have turned out decent and have beaten their elders. We probably won't see DESERT CROWN this season and the jury is still out on CORROEBUS. We have an exceptional older horse in BAAEED - by many measures, the best since FRANKEL - at 1600m and 2000m.

The Goodwood Cup was an excellent staying race with the top three in the staying division all meeting (and there's some nice young stayers coming through such as MOJO STAR)  and I'd argue we got a decent field in the King's Stand for all NATURE STRIP was far superior. 

Yes, there is an issue with high-rated horses being sold to other jurisdictions - quite apart from the Derby runner-up going to OZ, we have THESIS off to Hong Kong (and he won't be the only one) and the usual sales to America. Money talks, horses walk as they say and the money offered to some owners from other jurisdictions is very high.

You said it....not me...small but quality is what you said . What happened to acceptable numbers with quality? You bring up Nashwa...she's a very nice filly. I like her a lot, but that Nassau field, when compared to previous runnings, was crap so that could not be considered to be a success against older horses. She needed to do what she did to frank the French Oaks form. And you've go to keep an eye on that form as the second horse had only been placed in listed class and the third had won a weak group 3 as a two year old. That's not the best form and Nashwa won that by a neck.

I'm also not sure about the form of the King George. It's a false bottom, and in the speak of P4P, probably a supporting argument for the resurrection of additional jumping type races that are called group 1 races. I give him grief on the matter but occasionally he's right. Prior to Pyledriver (the winner of the King George) winning the that race, his best win was in the Coronation Cup (Gp1) against 5 competitors (there's that low number again). The horse he's beaten (Al Asay) was only a group three horse. Pyledriver had only beaten him by a neck. Pyledriver had also been beaten by Hukum by 4 1/2 lengths in the Coronation Cup this year (again only 6 runners) and to be quite frank, Hukum is not a World beater winning a couple of group 3's and being beaten into 7th  by Shahryar in the Dubai Sheema Classic. To put this into perspective in relation to Australia, Shahryar was beaten 3 1/2 l3ngths by State of Rest, the Cox Plate winner.

And if you're really going to tip the King George form upside down, check out the Arc form for Torquator Tasso (Arc Winner) who ran second to Pyledriver in this years King George

image.png.d83b871a8dc4d56c04c5acc09ae58e08.png

Tarnawa was top class

Hurricaine Lane won the Irish Derby, Grand Prix de Paris and the St Ledger

Adayar won the English Derby and the King George

Sealiway won a Gp1 at two followed by the Champion Stakes

Snowfall won the English, and Irish and Yorkshire Oaks

That form eats Pyledriver every day of the week and twice on Sundays. 

We are seeing an erosion. People are breeding less mares, horses are getting sold left right and centre, people are tiring of the money monopoly of Coolmore, Godolphin, Shadwell and Judmonte and the Arab countries holding money races in diluting the pot even further. We're heading into a very interesting spot.

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Back from a very pleasant week's break in the Lake District, a gorgeous part of the world and I'd thoroughly recommend a visit for anyone from NZ in the UK.

I'll catch up on the events of my absence in later posts including Tuesday's Rothschild at Deauville and today's Phoenix at The Curragh.

Tomorrow sees the Maurice de Gheest over 1300m at Deauville and in some ways this is France's version of the July Cup or the Platinum Jubilee. The visitors are here in strength for the £183,000 pot. Overnight favourite is Platinum Jubilee winner and July Cup runner up NAVAL CROWN who ran solid races in both championship events. PERFECT POWER won the Commonwealth Cup but flopped in the July Cup - connections blamed the very quick ground and on a speed track like the July Course, you really need one who can hear his feet rattle. Deauville provides Good ground which should help PERFECT POWER who won over 1400m at Newbury in April.

ARTORIUS ran third in both the Platinum Jubilee and the July Cup. Ideally, he'd have Newmarket's ground over this 1300m and were that the case he'd be my selection. Even so, he has a huge chance for all I worry the slower French ground might not be in his favour.

HARRY THREE won a Listed over course and distance last year and has been kicked up to 10 but it's a big ask to mix it with the very best over this trip. The best of the locals looks to be ACCAKABA who was fourth in the Jean Prat and 100m less distance might well suit.

It's a tricky puzzle - the front three in the market all have serious claims. The percentage call is probably NAVAL POWER and I'm just worried about ARTORIUS on this slower ground. PERFECT POWER has a point to prove after the July Cup but the slower ground and extra trip might just be the key factors - he's my idea of the winner with ACCAKABA the each way choice at 20s.

Ryan Moore is at Dusseldorf tomorrow to ride Irish Oaks runner up TOY in the Preis der Diana which is the German Oaks. She brings very strong form to this race and should be too good for WAGNIS who ran midfield against the boys in the German Derby and NACHTROSE who was impressive in Italy last time.

 

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Plenty with which to catch up from my holiday.

Starting with the final day at Goodwood and the Group 2 Lillie Langtry over 2800m for the staying fillies and mares saw SEA LA  ROSA come home in front at the end of a real stamina test. URBAN ARTIST had led early but kicked on from 1000m down and was a good ten lengths up with 800m to go. SEA LA ROSA was closer than EMILY DICKENSON on whom frankly Ryan Moore had a bit of a mare. He got far too far out of his ground and when the pace collapsed it was all too late.

SEA LA ROSA does nothing quickly but a stamina slog is right up her street and I'd love to see her in the Cup races next season if they don't send her to the paddocks. URBAN ARTIST stuck on really bravely to hold second with EMILY DICKENSON a neck down in third and YESYESYES, for whom this was the seasonal bow, a very creditable fourth for all I'd be worried how hard a race she had. The final time was 3 minutes 5 seconds so a notch below standard but the ground was quickening all the time.

The end then to a very successful Goodwood Festival which slightly bucked the trend of other meetings in terms of crowd numbers but Goodwood is as much social gathering as it is a race meeting. The three championship races were all won by favourites - KYPRIOS, BAAEED and NASHWA and all will, you'd think, go on to bigger and better things in the autumn starting with BAAEED at York in a couple of weeks.

As Goodwood ended, Deauville started - the track stages a number of meetings, both midweek and at the weekend, through August. The opening day featured the Rothschild over 1600m for the fillies and mares and Jean Prat winner TENEBRISM faced a formidable challenge in Sun Chariot and Duke of Cambridge winner SAFFRON BEACH.

Prix Rothschild: 

A really likeable performance by the winner who made nearly every yard and it's fair to say on a straight 1600m she's very hard to beat among her own gender. She's in the Matron at Leopardstown but that will involve a bend, another tilt at the Sun Chariot looks possible before a final run against the boys in the Queen Elizabeth II at Ascot and with no BAAEED ad questions over the 3-y-o form 14/1 looks a knocking each way bet.

TENEBRISM came up short again at the mile and I wonder if the Matron over the easier round 1600m at Leopardstown might be the better option. The local outsider GOLDISTYLE ran on late for third but once again the locals were put to the sword by he visitors.

From Deauville to The Curragh on Saturday and the Phoenix over 1200m, the first Group 1 for the juveniles in England and Ireland. The Coventry Stakes first and second, BRADSELL and PERSIAN FORCE, came up against the Windsor Castle winner LITTLE BIG BEAR and we know how strong the Windsor Castle form seems this year. The late scratching of BLACKBEARD took a little of the lustre from the race.

Keeneland Phoenix Stakes: 

A real superstar in the making it would seem and a commanding impressive performance by this son of No Nay Never out of a Bering mare. He thrashed PERSIAN FORCE (no mug) by seven lengths with Railway winner SHARTASH in third. BRADSELL lost his race with a poor start and was never travelling but it's hard to see what difference it would have made.

There's a lot of stamina on the dam's side (she ran over 2400m) and plenty of the relatives have run up to 3200m yet the immediate talk was of a tilt at the Nunthorpe over 1000m against the older horses - Karl Burke has decided not to send Queen Mary winner DRAMATISED down that route (she goes for the Lowther) and I'd be surprised if Aidan decided to run.  

He's in everything as you might expect and I suspect it'll be up to 1400m for the National next time. He dominates the juvenile colts and has demolished the best of the British so far.

PERSIAN FORCE did nothing wrong - he just came up against a really good one - and I think races like the Mill Reef and the Middle Park could well be on his agenda. As for BRADSELL, back to the drawing board but he's far from written off. Oddly enough, last year's winner of the race, GO BEARS GO, landed a Group 3 on the Saturday card - connections will surely think the 2022 winner will be flying a lot higher.

Sunday saw the Maurice de Gheest over 1300m at Deauville. It featured a number of those who had performed well in both the Platinum Jubilee and the July Cup but this was 100m further and the ground was slower - called Good to Soft by the French. Could NAVAL CROWN follow up or would ARTORIUS finally get that European Group 1 ?

Prix Maurice de Gheest: 

A messy and unsatisfactory renewal of the race which favoured those close to the pace and did nothing for those having to come from behind. Despite pulling hard, HIGHFIELD PRINCESS had enough to prevail in the dash to the line. 

HIGHFIELD PRINCESS was sixth in the Platinum Jubilee and while you could argue both the slower ground the longer trip would help, this was a serious race and her odds of 16.3/1 reflected that.  She's in 1000m races but I think 1200-1400 is her trip and of course she has done her value as a broodmare no harm at all.

MINZAAL, GARRUS and ROHAAN filled the minor places at big prices - all three are better known as 1400m horses and finished well off a pace which started well but quickened through the second half of the race and through the line so they actually recorded 1 minute 15.3 seconds (a fraction below standard).

NAVAL CROWN tried to go with the pace but a combination of the slower ground and extra yardage found him out and he came home in fifth beaten a couple of lengths. ARTORIUS was sixth, PERFCT POWER seventh and ACCAKABA eighth. It's fair to say this wasn't a race to be coming from far off the pace as they were quickening in front. Strangely, ARTORIUS was pulling like a train early while PERFECT POWER was the first off bridle at halfway but they finished almost upsides.

This Sunday's feature in France is the Jacques le Marois over the straight 1600m. 17 have been entered so far with Godolphin declaring both CORROEBUS and NATIVE TRAIL along with MODERN NEWS so we'll see which way Charlie Appleby plays his cards later in the week.

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20 hours ago, Ohokaman said:

The M de Gheest was very disappointing Stodge, it was a dawdle and didn’t suit many, particularly Artorious.

Wouldn't argue with that - HIGHLAND PRINCESS was free and close to the pace but was able to win a 300m sprint. 

I don't know if ARTORIUS will go to Haydock early next month - I'd love to see him over 1400m on an easy track up here.

Snippets of news today - it seems like MISHRIFF's connections aren't frightened of BAAEED at York. Of course, MISHRIFF has plenty of 2000m form in the book including a 7-length romp in last year's Juddmonte but this is a different race. The current ante post for next week's race is:

2/5 BAAEED 7/2 MISHRIFF 7/1 NATIVE TRAIL 10/1 STATE OF REST 12/1 NASHWA

That's five Group 1 winners to start with - the ground remains watered Good to Firm on the Knavesmire. 

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News today Frankie Dettori has been booked to ride VERRY ELLEEGANT in the Jean Romanet at Deauville. 

The Arc remains the mare's target and the Jean Romanet is over 2000m on Sunday August 21st (UK). It is from recollection a race for fillies and mares and I suppose equates to the Nassau at Goodwood. It strikes me as a perfectly sensible opening race to begin her preparation for the Arc - whether the Vermeille would be the next step or not remains to be seen.

This coming Sunday is the Marois - 11 have stood after today's first forfeit and 8 are 3-y-os. The colts include the Godolphin pair NATIVE TRAIL and CORROEBUS along with the desperately unlucky St James's Palace fourth MALJOOM but the fillies include the 1-2 from the Falmouth - PROSPEROUS VOYAGE and Coronation Stakes winner INSPIRAL. BATHRAT LEON represents Japan and he ran well enough in the Sussex. ORDER OF AUSTRALIA and STATE OF REST are also entered though obviously the Juddmonte may draw one or two of these.

Dettori's record in Australia is mixed to say the least but he remains one of the best up here for all he cherry picks his rides these days and doesn't ride as often as he did.

It's a quiet weekend up here as you might expect with York next week - 12 go in the Group 2 Hungerford over 1400m at Newbury. Only three from the classic generation and one of them TIBER FLOW, is favourite. He was eighth in the Commonwealth Cup and with the younger sprinters not competing well against their elders, I'm much more interested in course and distance winner CHINDIT who steps back 200m. Yes, he won the Summer Mile at Ascot and you can excuse him being no match for BAAEED at Goodwood - I well remember his win in the Greenham as a 3-y-o and I think this track and ground will be ideal.

He's not my idea of the winner though - POGO was third in the Lennox and won over the straight 1400m at Newmarket. He gets a little weight from CHINDIT as the former has a Group 2 penalty and at 7/2 he's a solid bet.

Of those at bigger prices, I like RUN TO FREEDOM who was midfield in the Platinum Jubilee but won nicely back up over his trip last time at Salisbury and looks a knocking each way bet at 14s.

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Five day entries are through for next Wednesday's opening day of the Ebor Festival at York.

First, a word about the weather - it's been incredibly hot and dry this summer in the UK as you probably know. Once again over 30c in London today and more hot weather forecast to Sunday but from then a breakdown with showers and thunderstorms into next week. That said, the localised nature of such weather means it's difficult to predict and overall rainfall amounts for the region aren't great so the current ground which is Good to Firm, Good in Places will, I suspect, be where we start.

Day One features for many the highlight of the whole meeting and on some measures the best race run all year in Britain and the second best in Europe after the Arc - the Juddmonte over 2000m. Eight have been entered and BAAEED dominates but both MISHRIFF and NATIVE TRAIL will take him on. MALJOOM has unfortunately been sidelined due to a setback and Joseph O'Brien has confirmed STATE OF REST will go for the Marois (I don't agree with that myself). 

William Haggas also has ALENQUER and DUBAI HONOUR but I suspect the former will be taken out f the ground remains fast while Aidan O'Brien has left in both POINT LONSDALE and HIGH DEFINITION (LUXEMBOURG, who hasn't been seen since finishing third in the 2000 Guineas after which he suffered an injury, goes for the Royal Whip at The Curragh on Saturday). Along with SIR BUSKER, they are all good horses in their own right but are short of the levels of form shown by BAAEED.

The Group 2 Voltigeur over 2400m is the main Leger Trial though some other decent horses have run in it and gone on to better things (CROSS COUNTER being one example). 10 have been entered but I suspect this will cut up to four or five. Godolphin have the top two in the market - SECRET STATE is the 6/4 favourite - he's won his last four and the last two of those successes are the significant ones. His penultimate win was in the King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot, one of that meeting's supporting and very warm handicaps. He beat DEAUVILLE LEGEND (of whom more anon) giving him 4 lbs.

Next time, he won another warm handicap at Goodwood showing plenty of ability but also a bit of temperament and he's one of those who will only ever do the bare minimum.

DEAUVILLE LEGEND went to Newmarket from Ascot and won the 2600m Bahrain Trophy beating WALK OF LIFE into third. At Goodwood, DEAUVILLE LEGEND ran in the Group 3 Gordon and was a fine second to Godolphin's NEW LONDON, who is the current Leger favourite.

He meets SECRET STATE on 4 lb worse terms than Ascot and shouldn't reverse the places and I'm not sure this flat 2400m will be ideal. WALK OF STARS ran well at Newmarket on his first run since trailing home last in the Derby and being gelded five days later (which seems a tad harsh) but on a line through DEAUVLLE LEGEND I don't see how he beats his stable companion off levels.

If the rain comes, EL BODEGON has a real chance - he was second to VADEMI in the Jockey Club and then third in the Grand Prix de Paris which are both Group 1 events so down a notch in grade you can see why he'd have claims but they've never risked him on quick ground so it must be doubtful if he'll turn up.

All ten stood their ground at final declarations for Saturday's Hungerford at Newbury. TIBER FLOW is 3/1 favourite with both CHINDIT and my fancy POGO at 7/2. 

I'll talk more about the Marois after the final declarations tomorrow.

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Nine stand for Sunday's Marois at Deauville and with the western European heatwave continuing I suspect the ground at Deauville will dry a bit further back towards Good.

Five 3-y-os take on four older horses but I'll start with the latter headed (arguably) by STATE OF REST whose recent record reads pretty well at 2000m. Apart from the small matter of the Cox Plate last autumn, he's won both the Ganay and the Prince of Wales this season and was a close third in the Tattersalls Gold Cup under what I think it's fair to say was a less than stellar ride from Shane Crosse.

Back to 1600m and I don't quite see what Joseph O'Brien is seeking here - I imagine if there were no BAAEED he'd be considering the Juddmonte. STATE OF REST hasn't run over 1600m since finishing third at The Curragh in June 2021 in a Listed race and on that basis I find him hard to fancy here. The Japanese raider BATHRAT LEON set the pace in the Sussex and finished a fine fourth well in front of ORDER OF AUSTRALIA but I'm not convinced either is good enough against a really strong classic generation.

Of the five 3-y-os, four come from England and three are Group 1 winners. Starting with the two fillies we have 1000 Guineas runner up and Falmouth winner PROSPEROUS VOYAGE who overturned short odds on Coronation Stakes winner and 2021 top juvenile filly INSPIRAL at Newmarket. Connections of the runner up blamed the really quick ground and I do think the slower French turf will play to INSPIRAL's strength and on the flatter track I think she has a big chance.

She has, however, to beat the 2000 Guineas and St James's Palace winner CORROEBUS who missed the Sussex due to a late problem. On the figures, both CORROEBUS and INSPIRAL are rated 121 and she gets the 4 lbs sex allowance. It's fascinating and one to relish - you usually expect the boys to beat the girls but INSPIRAL was champion juvenile filly and her performance at Ascot was, in my view, more impressive than his and given the, I think, valid excuses for her defeat at Newmarket, she's my idea of the winner.

Moving on, we have the five day entries for the second day of the York Ebor meeting. The feature Yorkshire Oaks over 2400m has been dominated by some brilliant fillies in recent times such as ENABLE. LOVE and SNOWFALL but this year's renewal looks much more open and interesting, Ante post favourite is ALPINISTA who has won her last five. Back in 2020, she was five lengths second to LOVE in this but last year she raced a lot on the slower German ground and among her wins was a sound beating of future Arc winner TORQUATOR TASSO. On her return, she won the Grand Prix de Saint Cloud which is no mug's race. Connections will be hoping for some rain to ease the ground.

The Irish challenger LA PETITE COCO steps up 400m after a win in the Pretty Polly and that's the question mark against her.

The 3-y-o middle distance fillies have been called a few names - Oaks winner TUESDAY returns after a below par effort against the boys in the Irish Derby and with EMILY UPJOHN blowing out at Ascot, the English Oaks form looks suspect. The Irish Oaks was won by MAGICAL LAGOON off the back of a Ribblesdale win at Ascot - I'm not sure what she beat but the third, CAIRDE GO DEO and the fourth, EMILY DICKENSON, are both in the entries but the latter was well held at Goodwood so perhaps the Irish Oaks form is also poor. 

The veteran ALBAFLORA was no match for SNOWFALL in this last year but hasn't been seen since a moderate effort at Chester - again, rain important for her.

The supporting Group 2 Lowther for the juvenile fillies over 1200m  has the Queen Mary winner DRAMATISED at 6/5. The obvious question is her effectiveness at an extra 200m but York is a nice flat track and you'd expect her to see it out well. MAWJ beat LEZOO well enough in the Duchess of Cambridge last time and is the obvious UK challenger but may struggle against her Albany conqueror MEDITATE who is unbeaten in three and Aidan O'Brien knows what to do with these juvenile fillies.

MEDITATE looks the one if DRAMATISED fails to fire.

Deauville also race next Monday with the feature the Guillaume D'Ornano for the 3-y-o over 2000m. MISSED THE CUT is the sole British entry but he bolted up in a warm handicap at Royal Ascot. That's solid form and he could he ready for the step into Group class

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Entries are in for the third day at York.

Friday's card features the Group 1 Nunthorpe - the second and final 1000m Group 1 in the UK calendar (the other is the King's Stand at Ascot). 

17 have been entered and incredibly we have a 6/4 favourite who has only won three races and the last one in Listed class. ROYAL ACLAIM showed a lot of speed over course and distance last time but it seems completely mad for a horse with this form profile to be so short when you have KHAADEM, for example, at 12s. FLOTUS is second in but her form is over 1200m and while HIGHFIELD PRINCESS won the Maurice de Gheest last time, I can't see her turning up for this.

WINTER POWER won this last year but has done nothing so far this season and while RAASEL could go well, I think KHAADEM at 12s is a massive price.

The Group 2 Lonsdale over 3200m was going to be the final outing for STRADIVARIUS  but after his huge effort at Goodwood, it now seems likely he'll stay in training as a 9-y-o. He faces old rival TRUESHAN and if we get some storms the latter will have huge claims. There wasn't much between them at Goodwood.

17 also in the Gimcrack over 1200m for the juvenile colts - the unbeaten NOBLE STYLE goes for Godolphin but the likes of ROYAL SCOTSMAN and PERSIAN STYLE bring serious juvenule form to the table if they turn up. 

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