News from the North(ern) Hemisphere

[stodge 1,940]

https://www.racingpost.com/news/international/she-has-a-big-engine-christophe-soumillon-excited-by-verry-elleegant-gallop/567948

She is due to run in the Rothschild at Deauville on August 2nd.

[Ohokaman 5,829]

LONGINES WORLD’S TOP 10 RACEHORSES 2022

(January 1 – July 10)

1. Baaeed (GB) 128

2eq. Nature Strip (AUS) 126

2eq. Flightline (US) 126

4eq. Life Is Good (US) 124

4eq. Titleholder (JPN) 124

6eq. Desert Crown (GB) 123

6eq. Jack Christopher (US) 123

6eq. Speaker’s Corner (US) 123

6eq. Vadeni (FR) 123

10eq. Golden Sixty (HK) 122

10eq. Mishriff (IRE) 122

10eq. Native Trail (GB) 122

10eq. Real World (IRE) 122

10eq. State Of Rest (IRE) 122

 

Others include: 

23eq,  Home Affairs (AUS) 120

23eq. Think It Over (AUS) 120

23eq. Zaaki (GB) 120

[stodge 1,940]

Lots to report up here this evening but first a look back to last evening in Paris and the traditional Bastille Day card at Longchamp featuring the 2400m Grand Prix de Paris.

Grand Prix de Paris: 

A bit of a turn up as the locals saw off the raiders with some ease. Indeed, an atypical French race with a solid gallop set on SIMCA MILLE by Thierry Bachalot and he ran a fine race in defeat but Stephane Pasquier had ORNESTO switched off at the rear and the gap appeared at the right moment in the field and he was going to prevail from 300m down.

Having won the Greffulhe, ORNESTO had endured a wide draw and a poor run in the Jockey Club and while I'm not saying he would have got anywhere the winner, he might have finished second on another day and this is another boost for the Jockey Club form following VADEMI's win in the Eclipse. ORNESTO will head for the Arc via the Niel - a traditional route for the top 3-y-o middle distance colts.

As I say. SIMCA MILLE never gave up and ran right to the line. Bachelot gave him a great ride in defeat and this is a rapidly improving type - his previous win was in Group 3 company and before that he'd won a small race at Angers which isn't exactly one of the top French venues.

The front two were nicely ahead of EL BODEGON who had finished just in front of ORNESTO in the Jockey Club but is starting to look a fraction short of Group 1 class. 

The last three home were the three I thought would be the first three home which shows how little I really know. ELDAR ELDAROV clearly wants further but both L'ASTRONOME and PIZ BADILE were frankly disappointing. They went plenty quick enough - 2 minutes 27.84 seconds (1.84 seconds below standard) while suggests the official description of the ground as Good to Soft was a load of old billhooks - I suspect it was nearer Good to Firm but French going descriptions are as unreliable and inaccurate as my selections.

Elsewhere, QUICKTHORN won the Maurice de Nieuil in another race run well below standard time (nearly 4 seconds). It can happen when the ground is quick at Longchamp front runners can do very well and Tom Marquand chose to make every yard and to be honest he was never really in danger. I doubt we'll see QUICKTHORN at Goodwood but a race like the Lonsdale at the Ebor meeting might be ideal.

RACLETTE won the Malleret which was a more traditional French race - they sprinted the last 300m and the first three were split by a head and a short neck with odds on favourite BAIYKARA getting the worst of that argument.

[stodge 1,940]

Two huge bits of news this afternoon - first, EMILY UPJOHN will miss the Irish Oaks at The Curragh tomorrow. Apparently she was due to fly out from Stansted Airport this afternoon but the plane suffered a bird strike on the way to the airport and was taken out of service and no replacement could be found.

MAGICAL LAGOON is now 5/4 to follow up her Ribblesdale success. Money has come for the Aidan O'Brien runner, TOY, who is ridden by Ryan Moore but she was beaten a long way in both the Pouliches and the Diane. CAIRDE GO DEO won a Listed over 2400m at Leopardstown and is clearly improving but she has a bit to find with the favourite on the numbers.

As you may know, we are bracing for record breaking temperatures early next week. On Monday and Tuesday, it's due to be close to 40c (104f in old money) which is well above that to which t we, in largely non air-conditioned brick housing England are accustomed.

With a Red Warning issued early this afternoon, the BHA has taken the decision to cancel five meetings scheduled for Monday and Tuesday. To be honest, these are bread and butter meetings for the most part but it'll still be a financial blow to the sport. Cards at Ayr and Cartmel on Monday and at Musselburgh on Tuesday will still go ahead a the heat isn't expected to reach the far north of England or any part of Scotland.

Courses racing over the weekend are taking plenty of precautions to support both equine and human welfare and with the heatwave due to end Tuesday night, Wednesday's cards should be fine.

[stodge 1,940]

Time to look back at the weekend's action up here as the heat started to build - it's now 37c in London on a sweltering Monday afternoon and I've finished work early.

Starting at The Curragh which staged a two-day meeting - Saturday's card featured the Irish Oaks and took place on watered Good ground.

With the first two from Epsom both missing, the classic looked a real opportunity for MAGICAL LAGOON to move up from her Group 2 winning performance in the Ribblesdale to the top table. Ryan Moore chose TOY of the two Ballydoyle runs but this one had disappointed twice in France.

Irish Oaks: 

This was a brave and tenacious performance by MAGICAL LAGOON who, as at Ascot, faced a strong challenge in the final 300m but battled to see off TOY who ran a huge race in defeat.

This was Jessie Harrington's first Irish Oaks and her first classic since the great ALPHA CENTAURI but she's one of the best dual purpose trainers and has trained Cheltenham Gold Cup winners as well. You could well argue MAGICAL LAGOON scrambled home in a weak Ribblesdale and scrambled home in a weak Irish Oaks and you wouldn't be wrong but she's a filly with a lot of the right credentials. I imagine the Yorkshire Oaks or the Vermeille would be next.

After two moderate runs in France on slower turf, TOY came right back to her best on this quicker ground and longer trip. She was a decent juvenile if a notch below the very best and while her fantastic breeding (she's by Galileo out of the 1000 Guineas You'resothrilling which makes her a full to Gleneagles and Taj Mahal among others) will always ensure a respectable place in the paddocks I imagine the icing on the cake would be a Group 1 success.

The front two were nicely clear of the others - CAIRDE GO DEO had won in Listed class last time and this was too big a step for her.

The supporting Group 2 was the Sapphire over 1000m for the fillies and mares - this went to LADIES' CHURCH who had been well fancied for a handicap at Ascot but had only finished midfield. This was a nice step forward for a filly who should have more to offer in a race like the Nunthorpe or the Abbaye. It was a close finish and she got up in the last stride to deprive favourite MOONIESTA who, you'll recall, was fourth to a certain NATURE STRIP in the King's Stand and will no doubt also feature in the big end of season sprints.

Just behind MOONIESTA at Ascot was EQUILATERAL and the two ran the Ascot form almost to the ounce which you like to see. 

Elsewhere on the card, LITTLE BROWN BEAR was an impressive winner of the Group 3 Anglesey and with the Windsor Castle third EDDIE'S BOY winning the big sales race at Newbury, it's fair to say the Windsor Castle is looking like the main juvenile form race from Ascot this year so far.

With the hot, dry weather intensifying the going for the Sunday card went to Good, Good to Firm in places. The Group 2 Minstrel over 1400m saw ORDER OF AUSTRALIA score an easy win coming home by three and a half lengths. He's a class act - he got to within a length and a quarter of Baaeed in last year's Moulin and was a decent third to the same horse in the Queen Anne. The Kilboy Estate over 1800m saw a strong British raid headed  by PURPLEPAY who had won the Group 2 Sandringham at Chantilly and run a decent fifth in the Pretty Polly but all her form has been on much slower turf and she was no match for LILY POND, whose dam, Alluringly, had once chased home Enable at Chester. 

She'd run okay in the Munster Oaks but this was a big step forward for this filly who might yet get a shot at Group 1 glory in a race like the Vermeille or the Champions Day Fillies & Mares.

[stodge 1,940]

This week's racing leads to Ascot and the Group 1 King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes over 2400m on Saturday.

Just six have been entered but it's a very strong field. Four older horses take on two 3-y-os but the latter dominate the betting. WESTOVER is 6/5 after his Irish Derby romp and EMILY UPJOHN is 15/8. TUESDAY was well held in the Irish Derby ad on that evidence you'd struggle to see EMILY UPJOHN beating WESTOVER but I suspect that was too bad to be true from TUESDAY. 

MISHRIFF has to give the filly a stone and the favourite 11 lbs which won't be easy. He ran a blinder in the Eclipse and was also second in this last year. 

TORQUATOR TASSO won the Arc last year and you have to respect that for all it was on very different ground. A certain Danedream did the Arc-King George double winning the Ascot race a decade ago.

PYLEDRIVER won the King Edward VII over this distance two years ago but was well held by HUKUM in the Coronation Cup last time.

BROOME won the Hardwicke over this course and distance under a brilliant Ryan Moore ride but he was a well held fourth in this last year and I can't see him improving enough to win.

The supporting race on Saturday is the Group 2 York Stakes over 2000m on the Knavesmire, To confuse punters, both DUBAI HONOUR and DUBAI FUTURE are among nine entries for this prize.

[stodge 1,940]

Racing resumed fully here today after a two-day pause in England due to heat - temperatures above 40c in much of southern and eastern England yesterday.

A decent card at Leopardstown tomorrow featuring two juvenile races which are often good guides o future classic prospects. The Silver Flash for the fillies over 1400m has the Aidan O'Brien trained NEVERENDINGSTORY as the 5/4 favourite. She's by Dubawi and the first foal of Athena, who won the Belmont Oaks and was a close fourth in the Irish Champion to the much missed Roaring Lion.

The Tyros is the colts' equivalent and O'Brien saddles Coventry seventh AGE OF KINGS but I'm much more interested in PROUD AND REGAL, trained by his son Donnacha. The horse is by  Galielo out of a Danehill mare, Simply Perfect and that makes him a full to MEKONG RIVER and to the staying mare SIMPLY BEAUTIFUL so decent without being earth shattering. PROUD AND REGAL won a maiden at the Irish Derby meeting which often turns up a good one.

Finally, a reminder next week is the Glorious Goodwood Festival - five days of good action and the entries are in for next Tuesday's opening card.  The Group 1 Goodwood Cup has nine entries and the market suggests a match between Ascot Gold Cup winner KYPRIOS and third placed STRADIVARIUS (with Andrea Atzeni replacing Frankie Dettori). TRUESHAN has been declared but seems an unlikely runner on the prevailing fast ground.

The supporting Group 2 races on the opening day are the Lennox over 1400m - 14 have been entered and two I backed at Ascot, SACRED and LUSAIL are in opposition. 14 also in the Group 2 Vintage for the juvenile colts over 1400m.

[stodge 1,940]

6 have been confirmed for the King George at Ascot on Saturday. The 3-y-os WESTOVER and EMILY UPJOHN remains the market leaders at 11/8 and 9/4 respectively and given the big weight concession it's likely they'll be involved at the business end. I prefer MISHRIFF (4s) who was only beaten by the Derby winner last year and ran very well in the Eclipse. A tactical 2400m on quick ground is ideal and I fancy him to run down WESTOVER close home despite the concession of 11 lbs. 

The York Stakes is a similar kind of race but it's a Group 2 over 2000m. The 3-y-o CLAYMORE did it well at Ascot after a disastrous run in the Jockey Club. He won the Hampton Court while DUBAI FUTURE won the Wolferton, the runner up did little for that form at Newmarket a fortnight ago. DUBAI HONOUR hasn't been seen since the Sheema Classic where he was tenth but beaten only four lengths in that bunch finish. He has big claims on his Champion Stakes second but that was on much slower ground.

9 have been entered for next Wednesday's Group 1 Sussex at Goodwood. BAAEED, the top rated horse in the world, is 4/11 with CORROEBUS at 3s and ALCOHOL FREE at 10s and ORDER OF AUSTRALIA at 20s. 

[stodge 1,940]

A few snippets of evening news from up here...

Derby winner DESERT CROWN, who had been intended as a runner in tomorrow's King George, will now also miss the Juddmonte at York next month. Indeed, it may be we won't see him again until the Arc where he will come to the race fresher than most.

Next Thursday's Nassau at Goodwood over 2000m for the fillies and mares has 11 entries - Diane winner NASHWA is 4/7 and we know this is her trip - she didn't quite get home when finishing third at Epsom. That said, the older fillies bring some decent form - MY ASTRA was runner up in the Pretty Polly at The Curragh last time while DREAMLOPER won the Ispahan in France.

11 also in the Group 2 Richmond over 1200m for the juvenile colts - not much Ascot form on offer but Godolphin's NOBLE STYLE (Kingman- Eartha Kitt ex Pivotal) made a nice impression on debut in May - he's not been since and I'd worry about quick ground. At this stage I much prefer CHATEAU who was fourth in the Windsor Castle, a race which is looking the gold standard of the Ascot juvenile races and won well at Sandown in Listed company last time.

[stodge 1,940]

On 7/20/2022 at 6:31 PM, stodge said:

A decent card at Leopardstown tomorrow featuring two juvenile races which are often good guides o future classic prospects. The Silver Flash for the fillies over 1400m has the Aidan O'Brien trained NEVERENDINGSTORY as the 5/4 favourite. She's by Dubawi and the first foal of Athena, who won the Belmont Oaks and was a close fourth in the Irish Champion to the much missed Roaring Lion.

The Tyros is the colts' equivalent and O'Brien saddles Coventry seventh AGE OF KINGS but I'm much more interested in PROUD AND REGAL, trained by his son Donnacha. The horse is by  Galielo out of a Danehill mare, Simply Perfect and that makes him a full to MEKONG RIVER and to the staying mare SIMPLY BEAUTIFUL so decent without being earth shattering. PROUD AND REGAL won a maiden at the Irish Derby meeting which often turns up a good one.

Not wishing to blow my own trombone but a couple of winners from the Stodge Tipping Machine - NEVERENDINGSTORY won at 5/6 and PROUD AND REGAL went in at 11/4 so a nice £10 win double means Mrs Stodge could have a fish and chip supper with large cod AND mushy peas AND a gherkin.

Don't say we don't do sophisticated here in East London.

[Ohokaman 5,829]

The filly well and truly found out in the King George Stodge…..

 

 

[mckenzie 607]

Good race. I’m not surprised the filly struggled against the tough older horses. I do wish we had more top level 2400m races down here. 

[Insider 3,947]

To me it looks like the Classic generation have been well and truly been found out. 
Personally I had a lot of time for the colt and filly, backing the colt (as I always do over 2400m) but the older brigade slammed them both. 

[stodge 1,940]

I'll review the race in detail but if you read my preview I wasn't huge on either of the 3-y-os. I fancied MISHRIFF and backed him - didn't think PYLEDRIVER was good enough - yes, he'd won the Coronation Cup at Epsom but that wasn't a strong renewal and he'd been found out in other big races but as the saying goes, every dog (or horse) has his day. Fantastic for the trainer and for our own J Mac or should that be P J Mac.

If you look back through the records, the very good 3-y-os can win the King George whether they won at Epsom or not - horses like ADAYAR, ENABLE, TAGHROODA to name but three in recent times but the King George can be a graveyard if you have either a strong older horse challenge (as this year or when ENABLE won it twice as an older mare) or the 3-y-o crop just isn't that good.

The limitations of the middle distance classic fillies have been cruelly exposed - first by TUESDAY's flop at The Curragh and now by EMILY UPJOHN - and we have become used to superstar 3-y-o middle distance fillies such as SNOWFALL or ENABLE but in truth the former wasn't perhaps that good while I think we can acknowledge the latter as a real champion and the best for many years in that division.

As for the colts, we don't know how good DESERT CROWN is - he may turn up in October, win the Arc and we'd have to call him a champion but I had doubts about the quality of the Irish Derby field at the time (Aidan O'Brien's middle distance 3-y-os have been very moderate by his standards) and for all WESTOVER did it well, there was always that nagging question of what he actually beat.

The other aspect of yesterday is the quality of the older horses and we have an Arc winner, who, let's face it, no one rated last year, coming back and running a huge race. Now, you may say, he didn't win unlike Danedream and that's fair comment but on a slower surface in Paris in October would you not put him right in the mix?

MISHRIFF was well beaten and for me didn't get home for all the race wasn't run in an exceptional time - ADAYAR was nearly three seconds faster last year.

The curiousity is this season the 3-y-os have come up short at the top table against a strong set of older horses - the July Cup went the way of the older horses and the British 3-y-os were well beaten (yes, I know ARTORIUS is still technically a 3-y-o but he's nearly a 4-y-o). The Sussex on Wednesday puts the 2000 Guineas winner up against the Queen Anne winner and last year's winner - in many years, the younger horse would be favoured and of course class acts like FRANKEL, KINGMAN and indeed ALCOHOL FREE can win but no one thinks BAAEED isn't going to be a very stern test and 4/11 in the ante post market tells you where sentiment stands.

 

[stodge 1,940]

Time to review yesterday's action at Ascot and York.

Six went to post for the King George & Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes over 2400m on ground described as Good to Firm, Good in places,

Favourite was Irish Derby winner WESTOVER at 13/8 but money came for MISHRIFF into 3s while EMILY UPJOHN, the arguably unlucky Oaks runner up, was friendless at 10/3 and bigger prices the three older horses, Hardwicke winner BROOME, Arc winner TORQUATOR TASSO and Coronation Cup winner PYLEDRIVER.

As @Ohokamanhas thoughtfully embedded the video further up the thread, I won't do the same.

In many ways, an extraordinary race and while some have called it anti-climactic up here, the truth is it has shattered a lot of illusions and delusions and made things a lot clearer.

The first s the 3-y-o middle distance types are nothing special - perhaps DESERT CROWN will prove the exception to this but we won't know this until the autumn. EMILY UPJOHN clearly didn't stay the trip which might explain why she failed at Epsom - back at 2000m she could still be very good but with both her ant TUESDAY flopping badly, the Oaks form looks poor and while MAGICAL LAGOON has improved to win the Ribblesdale and the Irish Oaks, she's no threat on any evidence to the older horses.

WESTOVER lost his race before he left the paddock - he got very warm and revved up and was far too free going to the start and in the race. To me, this was a classic example of one having gone over the top and he may yet come back later in the autumn but for now he needs a break.

BROOME did what BROOME does at Ascot - if he couldn't lead he made it uncomfortable for the leader but while he's solid Group 2 and has won at Group 1 level, he's just not competitive at the very top table - I suspect he'll head to America for some easier pickings in Canada perhaps.

MISHRIFF blew the start yet again but it made little difference this time - I thought with 500m to go he was going as well as the front two but he didn't get home in the final 200m and was eight lengths behind TORQUATOR TASSO at the end. Arguably this was an inferior effort to his run in the equivalent race last year where he got to within a half length of the Derby winner in a race run three seconds faster. I imagine the Juddmonte will be the next stop but if the likes of BAAEED turn up it's going to be much stronger than last year's race.

TORQUATOR TASSO ran a blinder in defeat - he didn't look happy on the run downhill to Swinley Bottom but came up the hill well and while readily held by the winner finished strongly. His jockey said the ground was too quick and it won't be this firm in Paris in October. On this evidence he's a live candidate for the Arc ad he certainly won't be 80/1 again.

I didn't think PYLEDRIVER would be good enough - he was rated 119 - but this was a bravura performance and to be fair he did win the King Edward VII over course and distance in 2020 but this was still a significant step forward for a horse who was well beaten by HUKUM in this year's renewal of the Coronation and had some questions to answer. Connections are gung-ho for the Arc but you'd have to wonder whether on all the evidence he'd have any chance in a Parisien mudbath.

The race time was below Standard but three seconds slower than ADAYAR last year.

As i said in my previous, if you look at the 3-y-os who have won the King George, they have tended to be the very best - real champions - the not quite as good types get found out.

On a bad day for the classic generation (and my wallet), CLAYMORE was well beaten in the Group 2 at York which went to old SIR BUSKER, who, having seen the back side of BAAEED in both the Lockinge and Queen Anne, saw out the 2000m on his first go at the trip and just held off DUBAI HONOUR, who ran with credit on his first outing since the Sheema Classic and has quoted of 33s for the Juddmonte and 25s for the Irish Champion respectively.

Just a final note - the Godolphin NAVAL POWER was a hugely impressive winner of the Winkfield over 1400m and this juvenile has an entry in the National at The Curragh and could be worth following.

 

[stodge 1,940]

We have the declarations for the first two days of the Qatar Goodwood Festival which kicks off tomorrow.

After a little weekend rain, the meeting will start on watered ground described as Good, Good to Firm in places.

The opening day is a decent card with a Group 1 and two strong supporting Group 2 races.

The Goodwood Cup was elevated to championship status a few years back and this 3200m contest has a field of 9 going to post. It's a serious staying race and the field is dominated by arguably the top three in the staying division currently. The young pretender and favourite is KYPRIOS who won a slowly-run Gold Cup by recording a similar final 400m to NATURE STRIP. It's hard to see tomorrow's event being such a French-style race but if it comes to a speed test he has all the cards and is the 6/4 jolly.

Last year's winner TRUESHAN relished the wet turf and we know on those conditions he's almost unbeatable. This isn't rattling fast ground but it is quicker and on the downhill sections you just have to wonder how much he'll be enjoying it. His performance on the Tapeta at Newcastle in the Plate last time was remarkable and we know he'll lack noting in terms of courage.

STRADIVARIUS won this race four times from 2017 to 2020 but missed the gig last year on account of the downpours. I'm probably not speaking out of turn to say neither owner Bjorn Nielsen nor trainer were happy with Frankie Dettori's ride at Ascot and Andrea Atzeni who, let's not forget, won this race on STRADIVARIUS in 2017 and 2018 gets back the ride. To be fair to Dettori, the Gold Cup wasn't run as a test of stamina but a tactical speed race and the old boy was simply outpaced by the likes of KYPRIOS who is half the old horse's age,

This is probably the final farewell for STRADIVARIUS and if he wins there won't be a dry eye in the house. He won the Sagaro well enough but that's a Group 3 and I just wonder if his best days are behind him. 

If we get more rain overnight, TRUESHAN will come into it in a big way and 6/4 is skinny enough for the jolly but he looks the next big thing in the staying ranks and he's my idea of the winner. Of the others, the only one I can seriously fancy is COLTRANE but decent though he is he has a fair bit to find on the ratings.

The Group 2 Lennox over 1400m is one of my personal favourite races of the season. It's always a close finish and it allows the "twilight" horses whose optimum trip is 1400m a chance to shine before races like the Hungerford and the Foret. 11 go and the top two in the market are horses on whom the Stodge fortunes (such as they are) have rested. I fancied SACRED strongly for the Platinum Jubilee and she didn't get a clear run and finished a close fifth, beaten a length overall and a neck behind ARTORIUS. With the winner and third running well in the July Cup, the form looks solid and this easy 1400m looks ideal.

However, second best in LUSAIL who my deranged readers will recall I backed at 28s each way in the St James's Palace. A decent effort there was followed by another good run in a muddling Jean Prat when third to TENEBRISM. I'm a little concerned about the quick runs but he's another for whom trip and ground are fine. Highest rated (115) is the older POGO. He beat LANEQASH in the John of Gaunt and then did it well in the Criterion at Newmarket. 

In the aforementioned John of Gaunt, KINROSS was just behind in third and it all happened too quick in the July Cup. He won this race last year and we know this is his trip and Mr Dettori has been booked - he looks an each way steal at 7s.Another fascinating runner s the 3-y-o filly SANDRINE who was far from disgraced in the Falmouth last time and brings serious Group 1 form to the table.

It's a fascinating race - I'd love to see SACRED win but she has a habit of finding any trouble going - KINROSS brings course form and is my idea of the bet of the race but I think perhaps the solid form of POGO might be the answer though I don't rule out SANDRINE who gets 10 lbs from the older colts and geldings.

9 go in the Vintage over 1400m for the juvenile colts. No stand out runner this year. Favourite is Karl Burke's Chesham winner who popped up on debut at 40/1 - it's incredibly rare for an unraced horse to win first time up at Ascot. As to what he beat, I don't know but we know Burke is very capable with the juvenile colts and fillies so another solid run looks likely. Godolphin's MYSTERIOUS NIGHT was a shade disappointing in the July Stakes at Newmarket and I suspect the step up in trip will help. The Johnstons set us a bit of a poser by running two colts, both unbeaten in their two races up the north. The stable has won this in the past but neither has contested a Pattern race let alone a Group 2.

I'm more interested in DARK THIRTY and the shrewd booking of Ryan Moore (no Ballydoyle runner) by Richard Hannon. DARK THIRTY ran okay in the Superlative but he has 6 lengths to find with HOLLOWAY BOY on Chesham form. He's still joint top rated and 10s looks a nice each way price.

On to Wednesday and the shock withdrawal of CORROEBUS this morning due to a foot abscess has reduced the Sussex field to just 6 and BAAEED is now 1/6 to follow up his Queen Anne success. He wasn't brilliant that day and his main opponent is no mug - ALCOHOL FREE won this last year and last time won the July Cup. She's a superstar mare but 9 lbs behind on the figures. Her run at Newmarket was excellent and at 10s she's a sporting price to overturn the best in the world. I'll mention ORDER OF AUSTRALIA who, after running third in the Queen Anne, won a Group 2 in Ireland but he was 5 lengths behind BAAEED at Ascot as well as CHINDIT, who was fourth in the Queen Anne and has since won the Summer Mile at Ascot but he also has a lot to find with the favourite.

We have a Japanese raider - BATHRAT LEON - whose form after winning the New Zealand Trophy at Nakajima in April 2021 was diabolical until he popped up last time in the Godolphin Mile at Meydan at 66/1. That was on Dirt - he was fourth to GRENADIER GUARDS one day and the latter was well beaten in the Platinum Jubilee. He's 40s and that may or may not be the value of the century in 48 hours.

[Insider 3,947]

On 7/25/2022 at 5:50 AM, stodge said:

Time to review yesterday's action at Ascot and York.

Six went to post for the King George & Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes over 2400m on ground described as Good to Firm, Good in places,

Favourite was Irish Derby winner WESTOVER at 13/8 but money came for MISHRIFF into 3s while EMILY UPJOHN, the arguably unlucky Oaks runner up, was friendless at 10/3 and bigger prices the three older horses, Hardwicke winner BROOME, Arc winner TORQUATOR TASSO and Coronation Cup winner PYLEDRIVER.

As @Ohokamanhas thoughtfully embedded the video further up the thread, I won't do the same.

In many ways, an extraordinary race and while some have called it anti-climactic up here, the truth is it has shattered a lot of illusions and delusions and made things a lot clearer.

The first s the 3-y-o middle distance types are nothing special - perhaps DESERT CROWN will prove the exception to this but we won't know this until the autumn. EMILY UPJOHN clearly didn't stay the trip which might explain why she failed at Epsom - back at 2000m she could still be very good but with both her ant TUESDAY flopping badly, the Oaks form looks poor and while MAGICAL LAGOON has improved to win the Ribblesdale and the Irish Oaks, she's no threat on any evidence to the older horses.

WESTOVER lost his race before he left the paddock - he got very warm and revved up and was far too free going to the start and in the race. To me, this was a classic example of one having gone over the top and he may yet come back later in the autumn but for now he needs a break.

BROOME did what BROOME does at Ascot - if he couldn't lead he made it uncomfortable for the leader but while he's solid Group 2 and has won at Group 1 level, he's just not competitive at the very top table - I suspect he'll head to America for some easier pickings in Canada perhaps.

MISHRIFF blew the start yet again but it made little difference this time - I thought with 500m to go he was going as well as the front two but he didn't get home in the final 200m and was eight lengths behind TORQUATOR TASSO at the end. Arguably this was an inferior effort to his run in the equivalent race last year where he got to within a half length of the Derby winner in a race run three seconds faster. I imagine the Juddmonte will be the next stop but if the likes of BAAEED turn up it's going to be much stronger than last year's race.

TORQUATOR TASSO ran a blinder in defeat - he didn't look happy on the run downhill to Swinley Bottom but came up the hill well and while readily held by the winner finished strongly. His jockey said the ground was too quick and it won't be this firm in Paris in October. On this evidence he's a live candidate for the Arc ad he certainly won't be 80/1 again.

I didn't think PYLEDRIVER would be good enough - he was rated 119 - but this was a bravura performance and to be fair he did win the King Edward VII over course and distance in 2020 but this was still a significant step forward for a horse who was well beaten by HUKUM in this year's renewal of the Coronation and had some questions to answer. Connections are gung-ho for the Arc but you'd have to wonder whether on all the evidence he'd have any chance in a Parisien mudbath.

The race time was below Standard but three seconds slower than ADAYAR last year.

As i said in my previous, if you look at the 3-y-os who have won the King George, they have tended to be the very best - real champions - the not quite as good types get found out.

On a bad day for the classic generation (and my wallet), CLAYMORE was well beaten in the Group 2 at York which went to old SIR BUSKER, who, having seen the back side of BAAEED in both the Lockinge and Queen Anne, saw out the 2000m on his first go at the trip and just held off DUBAI HONOUR, who ran with credit on his first outing since the Sheema Classic and has quoted of 33s for the Juddmonte and 25s for the Irish Champion respectively.

Just a final note - the Godolphin NAVAL POWER was a hugely impressive winner of the Winkfield over 1400m and this juvenile has an entry in the National at The Curragh and could be worth following.

 

A great review. Thank you Stodge.

[stodge 1,940]

8 hours ago, Insider said:

A great review. Thank you Stodge.

Thank you, my friend, for the kind word.

I know it's the other side of the world but it's the sport we all love.

KYPRIOS won the Goodwood Cup this afternoon beating STRADIVARIUS but I'll review that in much more detail down the road.

[stodge 1,940]

Looking ahead to Thursday at Goodwood, nine stand in the Group 1 Nassau for the fillies and mares over 2000m.

NASHWA, third at Epsom and winner of the Diane, is 4/7 - you'd have to say the form of the 3-y-o middle distance fillies is in the toilet after recent events and I wouldn't back NASHWA with 4/7 with anyone's money. She might still win given it's not a strong field in opposition but the form of the 3-y-o is a worry for all she was very good at Chantilly.

She gets 9 lbs from the older fillies and mares, the best of whom is probably DREAMLOPER who won the Dahlia and the Ispahan but was disappointing in the Pretty Polly last time and hasn't completely convinced at 2000m. LILAC ROAD was two lengths behind DREAMLOPER in the Dahlia but was a nice winner of the Middleton at York in mid-May but she's been off a fair while. She holds VILLE DE GRACE on that run.

Two other 3-y-os are of interest - CONCERT HALL was third in the Irish 1000 Guineas, fourth in the English Oaks and the Pretty Polly but was a little disappointing in the Belmont Oaks. ROGUE MILLENNIUM was well behind NASHWA when finishing seventh at Epsom and for all she ran well when second at Newcastle last time, that was a Group 3 and she's 9 lbs behind NASHWA on the figures.

NASHWA may well win - 4/7 isn't my kind of price but if you have $700 down the sofa, there may be worse investments. I'm not tempted to play but I think LILAC ROAD might upset the jolly.

The supporting Group 2 is the Richmond over 1200m for the juvenile colts. Coventry third ROYAL SCOTSMAN is the 6/4 favourite and that's understandable - it's the logical progression for the speedier juveniles. PERSIAN FORCE, runner up at Ascot, did it well at Newmarket in the July Stakes so the form is looking solid. Another Ascot juvenile race whose form is working out well is the Windsor Castle - the first four have all won including CHATEAU (the fourth) who won at Newbury last time. MARSHMAN and AL KARRAR both won on debut and could be anything but the proven form and experience makes me think CHATEAU is the one and I'm on at 4s.

Looking ahead to Saturday and it's quite a low-key end to the meeting with big handicaps and a single Group 2 over 2800m. The Lillie Langtry, again for the fillies and mares, has 9 entries and doesn't look a strong race. SEA LA ROSA was second in the Lancashire Oaks while the 3-y-o EMILY DICKENSON was fourth in the Irish Oaks - not much between the two to be honest.

The weekend also sees the start of the Deauville August meeting on the Sunday with the feature being the Rothschild, yet again for the fillies and mares. 19 have been entered including a certain VERRY ELLEEGANT, Falmouth winner PROSPEROUS VOYAGE, Jean Prat winner TENEBRISM and the Duke of Cambridge winner SAFFRON BEACH.

[scooby3051 10,872]

5 hours ago, stodge said:

Thank you, my friend, for the kind word.

I know it's the other side of the world but it's the sport we all love.

KYPRIOS won the Goodwood Cup this afternoon beating STRADIVARIUS but I'll review that in much more detail down the road.

Dont think he rode him any better than Frankie to be frank.

[Ohokaman 5,829]

 

[Ohokaman 5,829]

6 hours ago, stodge said:

Looking ahead to Thursday at Goodwood, nine stand in the Group 1 Nassau for the fillies and mares over 2000m.

NASHWA, third at Epsom and winner of the Diane, is 4/7 - you'd have to say the form of the 3-y-o middle distance fillies is in the toilet after recent events and I wouldn't back NASHWA with 4/7 with anyone's money. She might still win given it's not a strong field in opposition but the form of the 3-y-o is a worry for all she was very good at Chantilly.

She gets 9 lbs from the older fillies and mares, the best of whom is probably DREAMLOPER who won the Dahlia and the Ispahan but was disappointing in the Pretty Polly last time and hasn't completely convinced at 2000m. LILAC ROAD was two lengths behind DREAMLOPER in the Dahlia but was a nice winner of the Middleton at York in mid-May but she's been off a fair while. She holds VILLE DE GRACE on that run.

Two other 3-y-os are of interest - CONCERT HALL was third in the Irish 1000 Guineas, fourth in the English Oaks and the Pretty Polly but was a little disappointing in the Belmont Oaks. ROGUE MILLENNIUM was well behind NASHWA when finishing seventh at Epsom and for all she ran well when second at Newcastle last time, that was a Group 3 and she's 9 lbs behind NASHWA on the figures.

NASHWA may well win - 4/7 isn't my kind of price but if you have $700 down the sofa, there may be worse investments. I'm not tempted to play but I think LILAC ROAD might upset the jolly.

The supporting Group 2 is the Richmond over 1200m for the juvenile colts. Coventry third ROYAL SCOTSMAN is the 6/4 favourite and that's understandable - it's the logical progression for the speedier juveniles. PERSIAN FORCE, runner up at Ascot, did it well at Newmarket in the July Stakes so the form is looking solid. Another Ascot juvenile race whose form is working out well is the Windsor Castle - the first four have all won including CHATEAU (the fourth) who won at Newbury last time. MARSHMAN and AL KARRAR both won on debut and could be anything but the proven form and experience makes me think CHATEAU is the one and I'm on at 4s.

Looking ahead to Saturday and it's quite a low-key end to the meeting with big handicaps and a single Group 2 over 2800m. The Lillie Langtry, again for the fillies and mares, has 9 entries and doesn't look a strong race. SEA LA ROSA was second in the Lancashire Oaks while the 3-y-o EMILY DICKENSON was fourth in the Irish Oaks - not much between the two to be honest.

The weekend also sees the start of the Deauville August meeting on the Sunday with the feature being the Rothschild, yet again for the fillies and mares. 19 have been entered including a certain VERRY ELLEEGANT, Falmouth winner PROSPEROUS VOYAGE, Jean Prat winner TENEBRISM and the Duke of Cambridge winner SAFFRON BEACH.

Any sign of KHAADEM or MALJOOM anywhere Stodge ? Haven’t seen either since Ascot but might have missed them somewhere.

[stodge 1,940]

16 hours ago, Ohokaman said:

Any sign of KHAADEM or MALJOOM anywhere Stodge ? Haven’t seen either since Ascot but might have missed them somewhere.

KHAADEM is in the 1000m Group 2 on Friday for which he is 6/1. He also has entries in the Nunthorpe at York and the Sprint Trophy at Haydock for which he is bigger prices as you might expect.

MALJOOM, who went into everyone's notebook at Ascot, is in the Celebration Mile at Goodwood at the end of August but he could still be entered for the Marois for example at Deauville. The French Group 1 races have different entry dates and forfeits.

[stodge 1,940]

BAAEED duly did the business in the Sussex and is clearly an exceptional horse.

Friday's big race is the King George Stakes over 1000m for the speedballs. KHAADEM, mentioned by @Ohokamanis an interesting contender in what looks an open race. 11 go to post and my old mate ACKLAM EXPRESS will love the speed test - he was a fine third in the King's Stand, is top rated and is 8/1 which looks a knocking each way price.

On the numbers, the field is closely matched - I've mentioned KHAADM but the 3-y-o MITBAAHY is very interesting. The problem I have is his last three runs were at Hamilton and twice at Sandown - both tracks are stiff 1000m with uphill finishes and I think this easier track won't help. Ante post favourite is RAASEL who has improved out of the handicap ranks this year and beat the useful DRAGON SYMBOL at Haydock before getting the nod over MITBAAHY at Sandown - again, you'd just question the suitability of the track but he's won over course and distance, albeit on slower ground, so has obvious claims.

EQUILATERAL is a tough old sod who mixes it at the highest level. He was two lengths behind RAASEL at Sandown but a close third in Ireland last time after a fifth in the King's Stand. He and ACKLAM EXPRESS are closely matched on Meydan form and he didn't quite see out the 1200m in the Al Quoz Sprint.

The one I like is LAZULI who is very close to EQUILATERAL on a line through ACKLAM EXPRESS and while he was only ninth in the King's Stand I reckon that run will have put him spot on for this and he's my idea of the winner.

[stodge 1,940]

Time to look back on the first day of the Goodwood Festival which took place on a cool, cloudy but dry afternoon. A little recent natural irrigation and copious watering had produced an excellent surface which rode Good with some Good to Firm places. Trainer Alan King walked the course and declared TRUESHAN a runner in the Goodwood Cup ensuring the mouth watering clash between the three top stayers in the division currently.

Favourite was Gold Cup winner KYPRIOS, very much the young pretender as a 4-y-o. TRUESHAN was next in at 2s - he had won last year's renewal of the Goodwood Cup when it was a soft surface and accomplished a huge weight carrying 67 kgs to win the Northumberland Plate last time. 4-time winner of the Goodwood Cup between 2017 and 2020, STRADIVARIUS was third in at 4s. A well publicised split between Owner, trainer and Frankie Dettori returned the ride to Andrea Atzeni who had won the race on STRADIVARIUS in both 2017 and 2018. The Gold Cup had been a nightmare but back on a course where he had previously excelled, hopes were high STRADIVARIUS's swan song would be a blaze of glory.

@Ohokamanhas thoughtfully posted the whole card further up the thread so I won't clog it up with a second go.

A fantastic race, a real highlight and plenty to discuss. KYPRIOS is clearly a very good horse - this was just his eighth run - and he's uncomplicated. He mastered first TRUESHAN and then, under a strong Ryan Moore ride, ran down STRADIVARIUS close home and won a neck. If this wasn't perhaps the passing of the torch to the next generation, it was a clear sign there was a new kid on the block and he now has the two big British staying prizes this year. Aidan O'Brien couldn't hide his joy in the post-race interview but the plans seems to be the Irish Leger - I wonder if they've ruled out an Arc bid but no doubt he could be a major force in the staying division for some time - let's not forget the second at Ascot, MOJO STAR, and I look forward to them meeting again.

STRADIVARIUS ran to his very best form - Atzeni did nothing wrong but didn't enjoy perhaps the best of fortune. Hollie Doyle closed the door 600m down but it probably did Atzeni a favour - there was a cut away to the inside 400m down so he had plenty of room and might have nicked it but Ryan Moore realised he had to get KYRGIOS into a battle which he did at the last second and the winner was on top at the line. Owner Bjorn Nielsen said after the race this wasn't the end for STRADIVARIUS - the likely plan now is the Lonsdale at York and then possibly the Doncaster Cup ("only if they double the prize money" - a nice dig at one of the big racecourse owners). He didn't rule out the horse staying in training as a 9-y-o and having another tilt at the Gold Cup. The problem is KYPRIOS will be better next year and I can't see the old horse ever beating the youngster. 

TRUESHAN wasn't perhaps given the best of rides and it's almost impossible to criticise Hollie Doyle over here but I thought she went far too soon and compromised her own chance for the brief chance of keeping in STRADIVARIUS. TRUESHAN got lit up and was in top gear and couldn't get past KYPRIOS and was in the end held in third beaten a length and a half. Back on slow ground, perhaps at Ascot on Champions Day or in the Cadran, I'm sure we'll see TRUESHAN back to his best.

COLTRANE lived with the very best until the final 200m and came home an honourable fourth beaten just under five lengths by the winner.

For all the Goodwood Cup was a delight, I loved the Lennox, once again one of my favourite races and one I could watch and re-watch.

@Ohokamanhas likewise put this in his contribution.

A thriller with SANDRINE coming down from Group 1 company and making every ounce of the 10 lb weight concession from the older colts and geldings count. Her proven stamina at 1600m - she's mixed it in races like the 1000 Guineas, Coronation and the Falmouth got her home. Frankie Dettori gave up the far rail to no one and KINROSS showed a lot of courage to just ease past pacesetter POGO in the final 50m.

Now, far be it from me to toot my own trombone (if I don't no one else will):

On 7/25/2022 at 8:42 PM, stodge said:

It's a fascinating race - I'd love to see SACRED win but she has a habit of finding any trouble going - KINROSS brings course form and is my idea of the bet of the race but I think perhaps the solid form of POGO might be the answer though I don't rule out SANDRINE who gets 10 lbs from the older colts and geldings.

So, I thought how about mixing KINROSS, POGO and SANDRINE in a Trifecta - 25p bet netted £123 (nearly) - that doesn't happen often or indeed at all for me so a brilliant start to the meeting.

Of the others, SACRED once again got well out the back and had to weave her way through but an easy 1400m at Goodwood wasn't any better than a stiff 1200m at Ascot and she ended up fifth . They have to try to get her further forward earlier. LUSAIL finished seventh and as I expected two or three hard races at the very top table have taken their toll.

The winner heads for the Foret (no surprise) and I suspect the third might if the ground is reasonable. Asked afterward, trainer Andrew Balding didn't rule out a crack at the Breeders Cup Mile which may suit better than the Filly & Mare Turf.

The Vintage saw Chesham winner HOLLOWAY BOY backed down to 11/8 and for a moment in the final 200m it looked as though he would follow up his debut Ascot success but he was the victim of a classic Jamie Spencer mugging on MARBAAN, winning a first UK Pattern race for trainer Charlie Fellowes (best known for PRINCE OF ARAN). Spencer loves coming from off the pace and cutting down the leaders on the post and Goodwood is one of those tracks where you can execute that to perfection. MARBAAN had plenty of experience but this his first foray into Pattern company. He's in the Champagne at Doncaster and all the big sales races.

HOLLOWAY BOY did little wrong in defeat - MYSTERIOUS NIGHT again flattered to deceive and was a shade disappointing in third. You could argue another step up in trip might help but I'm not convinced.