RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
stodge

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That video of the Oaks was filmed from cameras on the finishing line.  I recorded the Oaks and the telecast on our Trackside was from a camera at the 2 furlong peg, and after that they switched to the camera at the finishing post.  At the 2 furlong peg Emily Upjohn had cruised up and had a length on the hard ridden Tuesday.  Tuesday may have gone too soon, and she was in front at the 1/2 furlong peg, judging by the shadows each of them showed on the track.  Tuesday's effort to hold on, after having gone too soon, was that of another tough, hard and consistent performer sired by Galileo.  In this instance I believe the plaudits aimed at Emily Upjohn are misplaced.

I watched a replay of the Diomed Stakes this morning.  The camera shot at the 2 furlong peg showed the leader, on the outside, clear by two lengths.  The front on shot from the winning post camera, was very deceptive, at that stage of the race.

Prior to goin to Te Rapa I set My Sky to record the races, so that, on course,  I can go and watch the races live from the far end of the public stand.  It gives one a different perspective of how the race is run.

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In the Derby have a look at the run in the home straight of the 3rd horse, Westover. Was even with the winner at 500m, got carved up going for a gap by tiring horse, pulled left, shut out of gap by 2nd placed horse coming from behind it, so eased back and pulled out right to fly home over the last 100m. In my opinion, Westover would have pushed the winner close if not beaten him. Was it the jockeys fault? I dunno, but if he had pulled left and following the 2nd placegetter would definitely been way closer. I will follow Westover with interest for the rest of season.

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Day one of the Epsom Derby Meeting coincided with the second day of the Platinum Jubilee Bank Holiday which brought a larger and more family-oriented crowd than usual for Oaks/Coronation Cup day which is often more the day for the racing purists.

The two Group 1 races were run on ground described as Good with a few softer patches on the far side but otherwise very decent conditions.

Starting with a small and arguably weak field for the Coronation Cup, the Derby for the older horses if you like. Just six went to post and favourite was last year's winner PYLEDRIVER who had outbattled AL AASY in 2021 and faced a new Shadwell challenger in HUKUM, the full to BAAEED. HIGH DEFINITION represented Coolmore and Ballydoyle and this type had at one time been Derby favourite but his 3-y-o campaign had failed to fire but as a 4-y-o he had shown a big return to form when runner up in the 2000m Tattersalls Gold Cup. Godolphin were represented by MANOBO who had shown good form up to 3200m in Dubai.

Coronation Cup: 

I don't know whether redemption is a dish best served hot or cold but after having been on AL AASY when he threw away the race in 2021, Jim Crowley got his Group 1 with a convincing win on HUKUM. The fact he's won this off 116 by four and a half lengths suggests this was either a big improvement by the winner or (more likely) this was a moderate race. Both PYLEDRIVER and HIGH DEFINITION have been well beaten in Group 1 races and neither really deserve their lofty ratings (120 and 119 respectively) on this evidence.

With both HURRICANE LANE and ADAYAR yet to be seen, the older horses over 2400m look a modest bunch and a race like the King George looks wide open to a promising classic colt or filly. MANOBO looked to hate every minute once he lost the lead and I'm not sure it was one of Buick's most thoughtful rides. HUKUM will head for the King George (no surprise) but if you think he can give the weight to DESERT CROWN or EMILY UPJOHN, there's a bridge I can sell you.

On then to the Oaks for the classic fillies and the pre-race betting suggested the Gosdens had a stranglehold on the race with NASHWA, ridden by Hollie Doyle, second favorite behind the unbeaten Musidors winner EMILY UPJOHN who went off 6/4. Aidan O'Brien had the next two in the market with the English and Irish 1000 Guineas placed TUESDAY and the well-supported CONCERT HALL.

Oaks: 

A race which will be chewed over for many years to come. Was EMILY UPJOHN the unluckiest classic loser since DANCING BRAVE? There seems little doubt in most people's minds she'd have won with a clean start which would have enabled (so to speak) a better race position. The fact is, 600m down, TUESDAY and EMILY UPJOHN  were upsides and TUESDAY didn't run in a straight line to the jamstick, covering more ground but still beat the other filly so I'm less convinced.

The front two are clearly very good - the winner is a full to both Oaks and 1000 Guineas winners and upholds the family tradition. I suspect she'll go to The Curragh which may suit her even better as a galloping track. From there, I don't know - the Arc will be tempting of course.

The problem will be the runner up here who looks blessed with more straightline and tactical speed and performed wonders to get as close as she did. There's just a worry the race may leave a mark - EMILY UPJOHN would need to be supplemented for the King George but another option may be the Juddmonte and a clash with BAAEED. The Derby winner will also be a big player as we shall see.

NASHWA ran okay in third but Hollie thought she emptied in the final 100m suggesting a race like the Nassau might be ideal. CONCERT HALL was four and a half lengths behind her stable companion in fourth followed by the outsider KAWIDA who outran her odds in fifth. The Cheshire Oaks form was shown to be modest with both THOUGHTS OF JUNE and MOON DE VEGA well held.

The race times are informative - the Coronation Cup was run in 2:36.40 and the Oaks in 2:37.83 and it was interesting to see the race occur middle to stands side which is unusual but everyone agreed the slowest ground was down the far rail which again is unusual for the track.

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On 6/3/2022 at 12:50 PM, stodge said:

15 go in the Jockey Club at Chantilly on Sunday which is worth £720,000 to the winner.

As we know, it's run over 2050m and the ground at the beautiful Parisian track is Good to Soft.

Charlie Appleby sends over MODERN TIMES who won the Poulains and had a number of his opponents behind next day. The most interesting of his rivals looks to be Guiche winner VADENI who looked a lot happier at 1800m and promises to see out the extra trip really well.

Nice win by VADENI who looks a very decent prospect. Won by 5 lengths in a below-standard time despite rain-softened ground. In the Irish Champion and the Arc and on this evidence a real potential rival for DESERT CROWN and EMILY UPJOHN.

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Emily Upjohn had the best of the ground out wide in the straight and got clear at the furlong, Tuesday outstayed her, and she came through in the worst of the ground 

The colt who won the Derby, Desert Crown, is a decent horse and clearly better than EJ on decent ground ….he’ll lap her over 2000m anywhere, anytime, and he’ll beat her in the Arc on good ground ( fat chance of that though ) 

I wouldn’t be surprised if Desert Crown ends up being special, and maybe even a super star 

Westover looks a nice enough stayer, maybe a Leger horse ? 

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18 hours ago, poundforpound said:

Emily Upjohn had the best of the ground out wide in the straight and got clear at the furlong, Tuesday outstayed her, and she came through in the worst of the ground 

The colt who won the Derby, Desert Crown, is a decent horse and clearly better than EJ on decent ground ….he’ll lap her over 2000m anywhere, anytime, and he’ll beat her in the Arc on good ground ( fat chance of that though ) 

I wouldn’t be surprised if Desert Crown ends up being special, and maybe even a super star 

Westover looks a nice enough stayer, maybe a Leger horse ? 

Wouldn't disagree with most of this.

TUESDAY was always going to be better at 2400m - her dam won at 2800m. She'll be ideal for the Irish Oaks. The question remains the extent to which what happened at the start did for EMILY UPJOHN.

DESERT CROWN is clearly very good - ground if anything a notch slower on Saturday than Friday after morning rain and he ran 2:36.38 so about 1.4 seconds than TUESDAY. He's only entered for the Irish Champion and I just wonder if the big 2000m prizes will be tempting.

Agree re: WESTOVER - looks an ideal type for both the Irish Derby and the Leger but HOO YA MAL's connections may think they've got something decent on their hands.

As for a fast-ground Arc, more chance of England winning a test match (too soon?) - assuming the usual mud, the Jockey Club winner VADENI might be interesting. Out of a German mare so mud and distance won't be an issue . He's currently 8s.

We've yet to see last year's two top colts ADAYAR and HURRICANE LANE - they have to give weight to the classic horses but it'll be a fascinating clash if/when it happens.

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7 hours ago, stodge said:

Wouldn't disagree with most of this.

TUESDAY was always going to be better at 2400m - her dam won at 2800m. She'll be ideal for the Irish Oaks. The question remains the extent to which what happened at the start did for EMILY UPJOHN.

DESERT CROWN is clearly very good - ground if anything a notch slower on Saturday than Friday after morning rain and he ran 2:36.38 so about 1.4 seconds than TUESDAY. He's only entered for the Irish Champion and I just wonder if the big 2000m prizes will be tempting.

Agree re: WESTOVER - looks an ideal type for both the Irish Derby and the Leger but HOO YA MAL's connections may think they've got something decent on their hands.

As for a fast-ground Arc, more chance of England winning a test match (too soon?) - assuming the usual mud, the Jockey Club winner VADENI might be interesting. Out of a German mare so mud and distance won't be an issue . He's currently 8s.

We've yet to see last year's two top colts ADAYAR and HURRICANE LANE - they have to give weight to the classic horses but it'll be a fascinating clash if/when it happens.

Think you could Stodge. Not only did she miss the start and end up in “catch up” mode, Frankie took her wide from the run in and she must have covered a lot more ground than Tuesday, who had the most economical run you would ever see. To get within a nose was a terrific effort. Have a look at the video posted above. Agree that Westover would have been much closer with an uninterrupted run…fastest last split of the race.

Vadeni looked ok but not sure that he beat much there.

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What ever the outcome, the Oaks was a great race to watch. The outside of the Epsom track is not the best place to be as the camber is slightly different than in the middle. That camber sorts them out. Both are very good fillies and I'd love to own either. An interesting thing to note was after the finishing post. Looked liked Emily Upjohn threw a hissy fit.

I thought the third horse in the Derby was seriously unlucky. He's obviously very talented and is a sensational type for a Frankel. Frankels can be a bit of everything...all shapes and sizes, but this bloke is a real boy. If I had to go home with one of them, he's be it.

French Derby winner obviously has wheels. A very un assuming horse, very weak as a yearling, not really much about him but obviously very athletic. Love Modern Times as he had to go about things the hard way after drawing wide. Love to see him back at 1600m. We need to get a bit more Dubawi blood here. Can't understand why no one has gone hard in for Space Blues. A sensational galloper with a good pedigree. I suppose that his slightly benched knees has something to do with that but any horse that can be a group winner at 2, winner of 11 from 18 culminating with a win in the Breeders Cup mile, you'd squint your eyes a bit and forgive.

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On then to Derby day itself and after a little morning rain, the ground was kept unchanged at Good, Good to Soft in places. A 4m strip down by the far rail was released and early observers soon reported it was rising much faster than the ground to the side. It was noticeable the Derby runners followed the traditional path up the far rail and didn't come centre to stands side which had been poached a little by the previous day's racing.

The 1000m Dash was the one exception - this is the fastest sprint track in the UK and probably the world. They went like scalded cats running the second 200m in just 9.2 seconds and the whole race in, as they say in the States, 54 and change.

The Derby saw 17 go over the iconic 2400m trip. Morning favourite DESERT CROWN was easy enough to back on course touching 3s briefly before coming back to 5/2. STONE AGE and NATIONS PRIDE were popular against the favourite.

Derby: 

Not a dry eye in the house as Sir Michael Stoute won his sixth Derby, 12 years after WORKFORCE and 41 years after SHERGAR.  This was an assured performance from jockey Richard Kingscote who didn't, I thought, have the best position through the middle of the race but the horse got him out of trouble and he was too good for these.

It's fair to say WESTOVER didn't enjoy the best of runs - he made his move at the same time as Kingscote was going through the gears on the favourite but he found the pacesetters falling back into his pocket and the gaps closed and the momentum lost was fatal. I'm to be convinced he'd have beaten the winner even with a clear run but he'd certainly have finished second.

WESTOVER is 15/8 favourite for the Irish Derby and that looks the obvious move for a horse seemingly blessed with stamina. As to whether he's a Leger horse, time will tell but if all goes well in Ireland, it would be a logical target. HOO YA MAL completely outran his odds but don't forget TERIMON was 500/1 when second to NASHWAN in 1989 and he turned out decent so who knows?

The front three were six lengths clear of the others which you like to see from a quality perspective. MASEKELA had misbehaved at York but came home well in fourth ahead of the O'Brien pair CHANGINGTHEGUARD and STONE AGE who were well held and frankly made to look a bit moderate. NAHANNI put up a decent effort but it was a poor weekend for Godolphin overall and they'll be hoping for much better fortunes at Ascot next week. NATIONS PRIDE and PIZ BADILE never threatened at any stage and finished in midfield.

As for DESERT CROWN, Stoute made no secret of his concerns over the colt's inexperience (just his third run) but clearly the horse is a real talent. He won't go to Ireland and the next stop looks the King George at the end of July for which he is 13/8 favourite with HURRICANE LANE 7/2 and ADAYAR at 4s. 

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Sunday saw the Jockey Club at Chantilly - it's often called the French Derby but it's run over 2050m and the main 2400m race for the French 3-y-o colts is the Grand Prix de Paris in mid July.

Godolphin were trying to come back from a poor Epsom with MODERN TIMES bidding to follow up his Poulains win but the draw hadn't been kind and I particularly liked the Guiche winner VADENI on the rain softened ground:

Prix du Jockey Club: 

I was really impressed by this performance. VADENI was always travelling and the further he went the better he looked. 2400m on slow ground in early October looks tailor made and the British top-of-the-ground horses may find this guy too good for them.

MODERN TIMES had to do a lot to get to the front and never had a moment's peace so it was a decent effort from him in the circumstances.

Second was EL BODEGON who was 10 lengths behind DESERT CROWN in the Dante and five lengths behind VADENI here so you could argue the Jockey Club form is inferior to the Epsom form - perhaps, only time will tell.

We'll get another comparison when Oaks third NASHWA steps back to 2050m for the Diane which looks an entirely sensible move.

Sadder news from the weekend - the Coronation Cup winner HUKUM suffered a leg injury which has required surgery and while the horse is fine, his racing career is probably over. He has of course a promising stallion career ahead and will no doubt bask vicariously in the achievements of his full brother, BAAEED, who runs next Tuesday in the Queen Anne.

Looking further ahead, it seems very likely there will be a reduction in races and meetings in 2023 following a meeting today between the BHA, the Horsemens Group and the Racecourses.  This is fine but it will be fascinating who or which group steps up with the reductions.

As you might imagine, it's quantity much more than quality this weekend. Seven meetings in Britain on Saturday - 49 races scheduled and just two Listed events the pick of the bunch. 

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12 hours ago, Berri said:

What ever the outcome, the Oaks was a great race to watch. The outside of the Epsom track is not the best place to be as the camber is slightly different than in the middle. That camber sorts them out. Both are very good fillies and I'd love to own either. An interesting thing to note was after the finishing post. Looked liked Emily Upjohn threw a hissy fit.

I thought the third horse in the Derby was seriously unlucky. He's obviously very talented and is a sensational type for a Frankel. Frankels can be a bit of everything...all shapes and sizes, but this bloke is a real boy. If I had to go home with one of them, he's be it.

French Derby winner obviously has wheels. A very un assuming horse, very weak as a yearling, not really much about him but obviously very athletic. Love Modern Times as he had to go about things the hard way after drawing wide. Love to see him back at 1600m. We need to get a bit more Dubawi blood here. Can't understand why no one has gone hard in for Space Blues. A sensational galloper with a good pedigree. I suppose that his slightly benched knees has something to do with that but any horse that can be a group winner at 2, winner of 11 from 18 culminating with a win in the Breeders Cup mile, you'd squint your eyes a bit and forgive.

The thing about Epsom is the water drains down the camber so when it's wet the stand side is the place to be. I was surprised the extent to which the far side was considered much slower than the centre on Friday but not on Saturday. 

Agree re WESTOVER - he looks tailor made for the Irish Derby and Leger and could he be a Cup horse next year?

I thought VADENI did it really well - what did he beat? It's always hard to know but a number had run behind MODERN TIMES in the Poulains and he beat them much more easily. Time will tell.

Also agree re SPACE BLUES - first season just 17,500 euros at Kildangan so we'll see. I can't believe he didn't have a decent book of mares but we'll know more in a couple of years - such is the infinite wonder of this sport.

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Interesting words from John Gosden about staying races and the breeding industry in the UK.. seem to be going the same way as Aus & NZ...

Stradivarius was among the big names limbering up for Royal Ascot on a sunlit Warren Hill on Thursday, and he was no doubt on trainer John Gosden’s mind as he spoke about the modern breeder’s misgivings over stamina-laden stallions.

The eight-year-old will bid for a record-equalling fourth Gold Cup at the royal meeting next week, but with this campaign due to be his last, a stud career beckons and it is one likely to revolve around National Hunt mares, as has become customary for top stayers from the Flat, with even middle-distance Group 1 winners increasingly catching the eye of jumps’ breeders.

One such is Nathaniel, who Gosden trained to win the ten-furlong Eclipse and 12-furlong King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, and who despite the best marketing efforts of Newsells Park Stud covered 77 National Hunt-oriented mares in his 2021 book of 136.

Nathaniel has sired three Classic winners, including the Gosden-trained great Enable and last Saturday’s Derby hero Desert Crown.

His former trainer said: "There's become this terrible tendency here to become a bit speed to a mile-oriented, and anything that stays isn't commercial.

"I think we've got an aversion to staying races. A very good horse won the Derby this year who is by Nathaniel, but the problem is you get in a situation where breeders think because they get a mile and a half they don't want that horse, it's not commercial and therefore they walk away.”

Gosden, who began his training career in California, added: "We're going to wind up like American racing, which is getting shorter and shorter, and it gets very one-dimensional."

https://www.racingpost.com/bloodstock/i-think-weve-got-an-aversion-to-staying-races-gosden/561196

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As usual, John Gosden talks a lot of sense.

GALILEO was of course a Derby winner and his domination has to some extent kept the 2000-2400m horses in the limelight but he's now gone and the likes of FRANKEL and KINGMAN are leading the shift back toward 1600-2000m horses.

We still have the likes of SEA THE STARS who is enormously popular but the strength of jumps racing up here makes the breeding aspect different perhaps to the US or Australia. Just 10 minutes before the Derby the first 3-y-o hurdle of the year was run at Hexham and for the majority who don't make the grade on the flat over 2000m or upwards, a hurdling career can make a moderate horse a money spinner (relatively).

Looking for that bit of flat racing speed and stamina to put into the NH bloodlines seems to be the deal for the smaller commercial breeders at present. It started with Gold Cup winners like KAYF TARA and CLASSIC CLICHE but it is, as Gosden says, working down to the 2400m horses who, paired with a stoutly-bred NH mare, can produce progeny useful up to 4000m.

There's also the fees to consider - getting your mare to FRANKEL isn't cheap but to a NATHANIEL may be a lot more viable.

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While all eyes continue to be on Ascot tomorrow, Sunday sees the main focus switch to Chantilly where 18 go in the Diane over 2050m on good to soft ground.

English Oaks third NASHWA is favourite and deservedly so - she ran as though not quite seeing out the 2400m at Epsom and dropping back in trip looks sound. The best of the locals looks to be AGAVE who won the Greffulhe last time and should love the trip. ZELLIE is interesting not having been seen since a fourth placing in the English 1000 Guineas. 

ROSACEA was fourth in the Pouliches but that form was challenged in the Coronation at Ascot this afternoon.

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On then to the Diane at Chantilly and a big chance for Hollie Doyle to win her first French classic on Epsom third NASHWA:

Prix de Diane: 

This was a tough battling performance from NASHWA who had to hold a sustained late challenge from Gerard Mosse (who has forgotten more than most jockeys will ever know) on the outsider LA PARISIENNE. I thought the third, ROSACEA, ran a really good race but she was given a lot to do from a long way back by Soumillion who must have thought he was on PERFECT POWER again. 

NASHWA is in the Falmouth at Newmarket (back to 1600m) and the Juddmonte at York which is already looking like the race of the summer. Epsom suggested she doesn't quite see out 2400m.

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With Ascot receding into memory, there's little time to reflect before another huge weekend of action.

The main fixture in the UK is Plate day at Newcastle - the Northumberland Plate is probably as close as we get to the Melbourne Cup. TRUESHAN carries a colossal 10 stone 8 lbs (70 kg) but is still only 8s and you rarely see Group 1 winners in handicaps these days.

The classier racing is in Ireland with the Irish Derby on Saturday and real spice was added today with the news Aidan O'Brien is going to put the Epsom Oaks winner in against the colts. This could be a very shrewd move as the colts don't look special - the best is probably WESTOVER who was arguably unlucky not to finish second at Epsom and should relish this galloping 2400m.  

WESTOVER is 6/4 favourite and TUESDAY 7/4 and I think I'd rather be on the latter given a choice. 

Sunday sees the Group 1 Pretty Polly at The Curragh over 2000m for the fillies and mares. 14 have been entered.

I'll consider these more at the 48-hour declarations.

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WESTOVER is 6/4 favourite and TUESDAY 7/4 and I think I'd rather be on the latter given a choice. [Stodge}

Stodge I am on Westover. With a clear run I believe that he would have won the Derby, he was coming that fast!

Fillies in our Derby [NZ] have a relatively poor record, so I am not holding my breath for Tuesday, 

Having said that, so few run against the boys in the NH so it will be an interesting exercise. 

Will you take me on for NZ $100 or 100 Pounds.....me Westover you Tuesday?   [If neither wins the bet is null in void]

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12 hours ago, Insider said:

WESTOVER is 6/4 favourite and TUESDAY 7/4 and I think I'd rather be on the latter given a choice. [Stodge}

Stodge I am on Westover. With a clear run I believe that he would have won the Derby, he was coming that fast!

Fillies in our Derby [NZ] have a relatively poor record, so I am not holding my breath for Tuesday, 

Having said that, so few run against the boys in the NH so it will be an interesting exercise. 

Will you take me on for NZ $100 or 100 Pounds.....me Westover you Tuesday?   [If neither wins the bet is null in void]

Okay, I'll play for $100 but, just to be clear, the bet is void under the following circumstances:

One or both of the horses is deemed a non-runner

There is a dead-heat between the two horses

Any other horse wins the race outright or in a dead heat with either WESTOVER or TUESDAY

Not quite sure how the monies will get moved - Mrs Stodge has an NZ account but I don't want to involve her in this.

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Final declarations are through for Saturday and I'll say a word about Sunday too.

Before all that, the big news up here is the apparent split between John Gosden and Frankie Dettori. INSPIRAL apart, Dettori had a wretched Ascot and it appears his rides on both STRADIVARIUS and SAGA weren't well received by Gosden who went public with this thoughts in an unusually frank interview on the Friday.

That led, I'm told, to an exchange of words between Dettori and Gosden in the weighing room on Friday late evening.

Dettori, as he often does, went off on holiday after Ascot intending to return to ride a couple for Gosden at Newmarket on Saturday but it emerged this morning Gosden had found other riders and Dettori's agent was left hanging on the phone. It seems hard to believe there's a way back from this public and acrimonious split - whether it's the end for Dettori I'm not sure - the truth is the likes of Ryan Moore and Will Buick are now getting the plum rides and younger riders like Tom Marquand, Hollie Doyle, and others are getting on better horses.

I wouldn't be surprised if Dettori called it quits or went abroad.

Speaking of abroad, 8 go to post for the Irish Derby at The Curragh on Saturday where the ground is Good.

On paper, it looks a match between Derby third WESTOVER and Oaks winner TUESDAY who of course gets 3lbs from the colt. WESTOVER could and should have finished second at Epsom but he wouldn't have beaten DESERT CROWN with a clear run. You could argue TUESDAY was fortunate to beat EMILY UPJOHN given the latter's antics at the start.

Both saw out the 2400m really well and at 11/8 and 7/4, they dominate the market. HANNIBAL BARCA won the Gallinule and PIZ BADILE was well beaten at Epsom but I can't see beyond the front two and I'm on the filly but not by much.

Aidan O'Brien has two in the Group 2 Railway with Coventry fourth and seventh BLACKBEARD and ACE OF KINGS. I quite like CRISPY CAT who was unlucky in the Norfolk.

Sunday sees the Group 1 Pretty Polly and the Group 2 Airlie Stud and I'll reflect on those tomorrow.

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Nine go in Sunday's Pretty Polly at The Curragh.

Favourite is LA PETITE COCO who hasn't been seen since winning the Blandford last autumn when she beat LOVE. It's hard to know how fit she will be and she faces two powerful British raiders.

DREAMLOPER won the Ispahan at the end of last month and that's serious form albeit over 100m less. MY ASTRA won a Listed race on soft ground at Ayr by 12 lengths last time which you have to respect and her rating has been kicked up accordingly but I always prefer proven Group 1 form in these races and have backed DREAMLOPER at 5s to follow up.

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