News from the North(ern) Hemisphere

[stodge 1,949]

The Punchestown Festival brings down the curtain on the Irish jumping season and is arguably their version of Cheltenham. 

Over five days, there are one or two quirky events such as the 6600m La Touche over the cross country fences.

Plenty of championship races to carry on the story from Cheltenham and Aintree.

Tomorrow, Ballymore winner SIR GERHARD goes back to 3200m and takes on DYSART DYNAMO who was well beaten when falling in the Supreme at Cheltenham. BOB OLINGER, the luckiest winner of this year's Cheltenham, goes in the 4800m novice chase but I prefer FURY ROAD who chased home AHOY SENOR at Aintree.

On Wednesday, the first and second from the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham, THE NICE GUY and MINELLA COCOONER, renew rivalry over the 4800m staying hurdles. JOURNEY WITH ME wasn't going to beat SIR GERHARD in the Ballymore but might have every chance over this extra 600m.

Perhaps the feature of the whole week is the Punchestown Gold Cup over 4800m. Ryanair winner ALLAHO goes 600m further and is up against Aintree winners CLAN DES OBEAUX and FAKIR D'OUDAIRIES while the second, fourth and sixth in the Gold Cup - MINELLA INDO, GALVIN and AL BOUM PHOTO are also in the mix. There was a length and a half between CLAN DES OBEAUX and AL BOUM PHOTO last year while ALLAHO has been vulnerable over the extra distance as has FAKIR D'OUDAIRIES.

It wouldn't be the biggest surprise if MINELLA INDO and GALVIN got back in the mix - put 10 dollars of @scooby3051's money in my pocket and I'd play on GALVIN each way but this is a high class chase and arguably stronger than Cheltenham.

The Bumper sees the first two from Cheltenham, FACILE VEGA and AMERICAN MIKE, re-oppose but it was heavy at Prestbury Park and it's only just on the slow side of Good now. I wonder if that will put REDEMPTION DAY back in the mix.

Thursday has the Champion Stayers Hurdle in which KLASSICAL DREAM bids to atone for a disappointing Cheltenham run while in the 3200m novice chase GENTLEMAN DU MEE bids to follow up his Aintree win over Arkle chase hero EDWARDSTONE.

With CONSTITUTION HILL declining the gig, HONEYSUCKLE looks a short price to confirm Cheltenham form with EPATANTE in the Champion Hurdle on Friday while County Hurdle winner STATE MAN looks to have a big chance in the 4000m novice hurdle.

I'll sort out the Friday and Saturday races later in the week.

[stodge 1,949]

I forgot to add tomorrow also sees Champion chase winner ENERGUMENE take on stable mate CHACUN POUR SOI over 3200m. May not be much between them. 

[Ohokaman 5,844]

Burrows Park…how did that win……? 

 

[Tauhei Notts 1,413]

Hey Stodge,

I see Claymore is going for the Poule d'Essai des Poulains.  He'll make the opposition look like escargot.  Good thing you weren't here to take a lazy 20 quid off me.

[stodge 1,949]

17 hours ago, Tauhei Notts said:

Hey Stodge,

I see Claymore is going for the Poule d'Essai des Poulains.  He'll make the opposition look like escargot.  Good thing you weren't here to take a lazy 20 quid off me.

That's not my style. I do think there's no strong contender among the French at this stage - the question is whether Aidan O'Brien might hold one of his better ones in reserve as he did with ST MARK'S BASILICA last year.

[stodge 1,949]

Final declarations are through for Friday's cards.

At Newmarket, YIBIR is 2/5 to beat five opponents in the Group 2 Jockey Club Stakes. He's 11 lbs ahead on the ratings so a 3 lb penalty shouldn't make much odds and his run at Meydan was well up to standard.

At Punchestown, HONEYSUCKLE is 1/5 to win the Champion Hurdle She holds three of her five opponents on Cheltenham form and this should be, as we say up here, a penalty kick. The Champion Novice Hurdle over 3950m looks much more interesting. STATE MAN looked a blot on the handicap at Cheltenham and won just like one but he's in the big leagues now. THREE STRIPE LIFE was second to SIR GERHARD at Cheltenham but followed up at Aintree - I'd just question three hard races in seven weeks.

I would take KILCRUIT against them both - he was no match for CONSTITUTION HILL at Cheltenham but was only just two and a half lengths behind JONBON who followed up at Aintree. KILCRUIT won the Champion Bumper last year and I've always thought he'd want 4000m to be shown at his best - he has his trip and ground and I think he'll surprise the front two in the market.

 

[stodge 1,949]

A long overdue look back at last weekend's action in the UK.

Friday saw the best card of the turf flat season so far at Sandown and the ground was just on the fast side of Good.

The feature Group 2 Mile saw last year's Coronation and Sussex winner ALCOHOL FREE favourite but she drifted alarmingly from 4/6 to 7/4 and while she looked good enough in the paddock, the consensus among paddock watchers was she's need the run and so it proved. She moved up to challenge but her run flattened 300m out and she ended up well held in third behind LIGHTS ON who benefited from a typically strong Ryan Moore ride. The winner is a daughter of Siyouni out of an Inchinor mare so she coped well enough with the ground. She's only rated 107 so that makes this a weak Group 2 in all honesty. The second, MUTASAABEQ, was arguably unlucky as the gap didn't come at the right moment and he's the one who I think might be the one to take from the race.

The Group 3 Gordon Richards had just three runners and while I fancied JUAN ELCANO as the outsider, he went too free too early and the odds-on favourite MOSTAHDAF and he's 5/1 for the Prince of Wales at Ascot for which his trainer, the Gosdens, have any number of options including LORD NORTH and MISHRIFF. MOSTAHDAF has yet to prove he's Group 1 grade but he's clearly decent.

Last year's Classic Trial saw ALENQUER beat YIBIR and ADAYAR and all three went on to bigger and better things as we know. This year's renewal has a hard act to follow but the first two hone. WESTOVER and CASH, could be above average. CASH in particular was only having his second run and was as green as the proverbial grass but ran home very strongly for all he looks as though 2400m will help I'm far from convinced Epsom will. He's only 16s ante post while WESTOVER, who looks a more straightforward type, is 25s but it's very early days. The Godolphin favourite, GOLDSPUR, was only third but not beaten far while Aidan O'Brien's runner RIVER THAMES got very upset in the stalls and I suspect knocked himself.

Saturday saw the jumps finale at Sandown which was run on watered Good ground, The feature Grade 1 Celebration Chase over 3200m looked a re-match between Tingle Creek winner GREANETEEN and the useful NUBE NEGRA.

Celebration Chase: 

A fantastic day for champion trainer Paul Nicholls who netted a five timer highlighted by a runaway win for GREANETEEN. The trip to Leopardstown in February had been a disaster - the horse suffered an eye injury which still hasn't been fully resolved - the operation had to wait until the end of the campaign. Nicholls has often thought the horse doesn't get the credit he deserves and he has a point but it's unfortunate he's a very good horse in an era of great horses in the speed chasing divisions. The likes of SHISHKIN and ENERGUMENE dominate and GREANETEEN has been well beaten by both speaks only to the strength in depth of the division.

NUBE NEGRA was disappointing - he's a weak finisher and perhaps he really needs a flat track but old SCEAU ROYAL picked up more place money for his connections.

A farcical start to the Grade 2 Oaksey Chase saw MISTER FISHER shy from the tape and SAINT CALVADOS gifted a 10-length start which he never looked like surrendering.

[stodge 1,949]

Punchestown started on Tuesday with three Grade 1 races, only one of which went to plan. 

The Champion Novice Hurdle over 3200m sponsored by Bective Stud saw Ballymore winner SIR GERHARD go off at 4/7 to follow up.

Bective Stud Champion Novice Hurdle: 

I couldn't understand why they ran SIR GERHARD at this trip rather than the 4000m. He doesn't have the tactical speed at the business end over 3200m and he looked flat footed from two out. The winner had pulled up in the Supreme at Cheltenham which perhaps shows how dominant Nicky Henderson's CONSTITUTION HILL and JONBON were - the Irish had nothing with which to compete at the speed level but were dominant over the longer distances among the novices.

One of the highlights of the whole week was the Champion Chase over 3200m which saw Champion Chase winner ENERGUMENE take on CHACUN POUR SOI.

William Hill Champion Chase: 

The expected duel ended as you might have expected but at the second last supporters of CHACUN POUR SOI must have thought they were going t upset the favourite but ENERGUMENE is a class act and had too many guns for the former champion and in the end won decisively. No doubt SHISHKIN will be back for another try next year along with Tingle Creek winner GREANETEEN and this year's Arkle winner EDWARDSTONE will be in the mix but they'll all have to be at the top of their time to trouble ENERGUMENE who maintains the very high quality of the speed chasing division.

On to the staying novice chasers over 4800m and the fortunate Turners winner BOB OLINGER went off favourite to maintain his unbeaten record over fences.

Dooley Insurance Champion Novices Chase:

 

Another race which didn't go to plan for the punters. A dismal effort by BOB OLINGER who had looked flat and was well held by GALOPIN DES CHAMPS when the latter fell at the last at Cheltenham had no such good fortune today and he's clearly got a problem.

CAPODANNO isn't perhaps the most natural of jumpers and was fourth to L'HOMME PRESSE in the Brown Advisory at Cheltenham but did this very well and the one thing he does is gallop. FURY ROAD looked as though he was feeling the effects of Aintree so perhaps this was a soft race - I'd love to see CAPODANNO in the National - he'll either jump like a stag or fall or perhaps both.

[stodge 1,949]

Day Two at Punchestown yesterday and despite overcast and cool conditions, watering was required to keep the ground just on the slow side of Good.

Three more Grade 1 races starting with the championship race for the staying novice hurdlers which saw the first two from the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham re-oppose with THE NICE GUY favoured to confirm places with MINELLA COCOONER.

Irish Mirror Novices Hurdle: 

It's always nice as a form student to see the championship form franked and the front two are clearly very good types and look to have huge potential as staying chasers next season if that's the route connections choose to follow. MINELLA COCOONER went from the front and came back when headed by the winner after the second last and never stopped battling and these are all excellent traits but THE NICE GUY is relentless and just kept going all the way to the line. As I say, the front two are classy stayers and certainly both will be worth following next year.

The day's feature and one of the highlights of the week was the Punchestown Gold Cup, the championship staying chase of the meeting. Ryanair winner ALLAHO was made favourite over a strong field including the 2021 winner CLAN DES OBEAUX who had returned to form in style at Aintree.

Punchestown Gold Cup: 

Given Cheveley Park also own the Gold Cup winner A PLUS TARD, they could certainly be accused of having an embarrassment of riches in the staying chase division. This was a hugely impressive performance by ALLAHO whose stamina had been questioned in the past but who saw out this trip on this ground really well. You'd think Kempton on King George Day would be ideal on decent ground and his quality jumping stands him in good stead.

Whether he'd see out the full 5000m of the Gold Cup is a question still to be answered but he put some decent rivals to the sword. CLAN DES OBEAUX tried to go with the leader but was cooked approaching two out while former Gold Cup winner AL BOUM PHOTO was made to look slow. I thought KEMBOY might have finished second had it not been for a sprawling error at the second last.

Also well beaten were past Gold Cup winner MINELLA INDO, King George winner TORNADO FLYER and the well fancied GALVIN while FAKIR D'OUDARIES didn't get home but his connections may feel the Ryanair in 2023 will be theirs for the taking is ALLAHO heads for the Gold Cup.

The current 2023 Gold Cup betting has GALOPIN DES CHAMPS at 7/2 favourite, A PLUS TARD at 4s, ALLAHO at 7s and AHOY SENOR at 8s.

The Bumper over 3200m also saw the first two from Cheltenham re-match. FACILE VEGA had ploughed through the near waterlogged ground to beat AMERICAN MIKE but would places be confirmed on this much sounder surface?

Champion Irish National Hunt Flat Race: 

They say you should never chase your losses and I did my cajones at Cheltenham on REDEMPTION DAY for whom the rain was a complete disaster. I thought he would be an entirely different proposition on better ground and so it proved - he gave FACILE VEGA a real race and although coming off second best, I was able to recover some of my Cheltenham losses each way at 14s.

The winner did the Cheltenham-Punchestown double and is clearly very good - how will the Mullins team shuffle the pack next season? If I were the trainer, I'd aim FACILE VEGA for the Ballymore - these Bumper horses often want a bit further with time. I'd keep REDEMPTION DAY for the Supreme and avoid running him on soft or heavy ground so Leopardstown would be a good idea at Christmas. The front two were 14 lengths clear of the third and I rate both very highly.

[stodge 1,949]

It's a busy old time and Saturday is approaching which means Guineas day at Newmarket.

15 stand for the first classic of the season over the straight 1600m on decent ground.

NATIVE TRAIL is unbeaten and won both the National and Dewhurst as a juvenile before winning the Craven a fortnight ago. He ticks a lot of the boxes - my only reservation would be if he has the tactical speed for this or whether his optimum is 2000m or further. That said, it's the old adage of find one to beat him and he's just odds-on with most books over here though you can get levels in a few places.

Stable mate CORROEBUS is officially 7 lbs inferior and just failed controversially in the Royal Lodge before winning a Group 3 over course and distance. You can argue CORROEBUS is all potential while NATIVE TRAIL and others have proved their worth on the track - I think CORROEBUS is very short at 4s on the evidence of his form.

LUXEMBOURG won the Beresford and the Futurity (as did Saxon Warrior among others) and Aidan O'Brien's record of bringing colts here first time up to win the Guineas stands up to close inspection (Camelot, Saxon Warrior and Churchill to name but three). We know he's good and he must be respected.

PERFECT POWER was a speedy juvenile ending up winning the Middle Park and there was a time when that was the significant Guineas trial (Mill Reef won it for example). He did it well in the Greenham a fortnight ago but this is an extra 200m with more ups and downs than Newbury. I don't think reading between the lines trainer Richard Fahey believes the horse will stay - if he does, he has serious claims but that's a big question.

POINT LONSDALE won the Chesham at Royal Ascot last summer but was comprehensively outpointed by NATIVE TRAIL in the National and the balance of his form suggests softer ground might be better.

Beyond those five, it's 20s and upwards the others. EYDON was impressive in the Feilden and he won't be stopping at the end of 1600m but I suspect it will all happen too quickly. ROYAL PATRONAGE won the Acomb and the Royal Lodge but flopped in the Vertem behind LUXEMBOURG. 

The one I like among the outsiders is LUSAIL who is 40/1 and while second to PERFECT POWER in the Greenham, I think there's less of a stamina query and he could nick a place especially with a bookie paying down to fourth.

So, who wins what is often the best race of the whole season? NATIVE TRAIL is obvious but the value for me is with LUXEMBOURG at 5s with LUSAIL at 40s as the each way saver.

At Punchestown, the Triumph Hurdle first and second, VAUBAN and FIL D'OR, re-oppose in the Champion 4-y-o Hurdle. VAUBAN was dominant at Cheltenham and I expect him to follow up.

On Sunday, we have the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket but France stages their first Group 1, the Ganay, at Longchamp. SKALLETI beat SEALAWAY in the Harcourt but the most interesting entry is Cox Plate winner STATE OF REST.

[Tauhei Notts 1,413]

Stodge,

Under our present racing management we are able to watch races from Goodwood, Newmarket, Uttoxeter and Thirsk in the early hours of our Sunday morning.

So on Sunday morning NZ time we can watch the From Burton With Love Handicap Hurdle at 1645 hours Greenwich mean time, but the 2000 Guineas is not considered worthy of showing.

Un far kin bee lieve far kin able.

[stodge 1,949]

I've just looked at the TAB.CO.NZ site and Newmarket isn't even mentioned (should be M53).

For the night owls, looks like the Racing UK feed from Thirsk, Goodwood and Punchestown will be available on Trackside 1 and 2. 

Nothing on Sunday but you always have the top quality action from Seoul and Busan to enjoy. 

I share your sentiment....

[stodge 1,949]

Sunday's final declarations are through.

At Newmarket, 14 go in the 1000 Guineas and unlike the colts classic tomorrow, the fillies classic looks wide open. TENEBRISM starts as favourite having shown a fine turn of foot to win the Cheveley Park on her second outing. She's by a sprinter out of a Group 1 winning miler so you'd think 1600m would work but you have to question whether that speed marks her more like her sire, Caravaggio, and she'll come up short over this trip.

The Irish dominate the race - DISCOVERIES won the Moyglare and the trip isn't an issue. She beat TUESDAY a short head on her second outing (the latter's debut) and there won't be much between them. TUESDAY is bred in the purple - she's a full to the champion Minding and to last year's Irish 1000 Guineas winner EMPRESS JOSEPHINE and both did their best on slower ground. I just have my doubts about TUESDAY on the quick Newmarket turf.

I'm very keen on MALAVATH who went very well on firm turf when runner up in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. She won the Imprudence in good style and she wouldn't be the first French filly to relish the quick ground and I think she's the winner and I've backed her each way at 7s.

ZELLIE was second to MALAVATH at Deauville and while she could go well, I can't see her reversing the places.

You'll note I've not mentioned an English runner - MISE EN SCENE is the shortest price - she was fourth to INSPIRAL but tenth and well behind MALAVATH at Del Mar. Of the others, trial winners WILD BEAUTY (Fred Darling) and CACHET (Nell Gwyn) have outside claims and the maiden winner AMEYNAH could be anything.

This is a Group 1 and you usually need form in that grade - I don't think TENEBRISM will see it out and I think MALAVATH will just beat DISCOVERIES.

7 go in the Group 2 Dahlia over 1800m. EBAIYRA is a wonderful filly and it'll be great to see her in the flesh but 1800m is plenty short enough for her and she may be done for speed by th likes of VILLE DE ROSE who was probably too immature early in her 3-y-o campaign but flourished in the autumn winning her last three races. Both however might struggle with DREAMLOPER who has raced in Group 1 races with credit and has plenty of form with last week's Sandown winner LIGHTS ON.

At Longchamp, just six go in the Ganay. SKALLETI may be seven but he's a class act at 2000m winning the Ispahan last year and the Harcourt both this year and last. He's entitled to be favourite but SEALIWAY is a serious rival. He won the Lagardere as a juvenile and was runner up to St Mark's Basilica in the Jockey Club. He was fifth in the Arc and then won the Champion Stakes at Ascot. I can excuse him a narrow defeat to SKALLETI in the Harcourt and I think the places could be reversed this time.

Into the mix we have MARE AUSTRALIS who won the Ganay last year but wasn't seen until running third to SKALLETI and SEALIWAY in the Harcourt. He'll go close and is lightly raced but SEALIWAY's form is very solid. 

STATE OF REST won the Saratoga Derby and then went to Moonee Valley and won the Cox Plate - I imagine he'll be heading back in the autumn and I expect him to need the run.

[Tauhei Notts 1,413]

My sincere apologies to our TAB.  Race 5 at 2.40 a.m. is The 2000 Guineas.  It will be shown.

[stodge 1,949]

14 hours ago, Tauhei Notts said:

My sincere apologies to our TAB.  Race 5 at 2.40 a.m. is The 2000 Guineas.  It will be shown.

The 1000 Guineas also available for the night owls 

I note the last two races at Newcastle were abandoned and there looked to be a lot of rain in New South Wales generally.

[stodge 1,949]

Before the huge Guineas weekend races, a chance to mop up the rest of the weekday action from the past few days.

On Wednesday, Ascot staged its first meeting of the season - a rather overblown "Trials Day" ahead of June's extravaganza. The Sagaro is a Group 3 over 3200m for the stayers and while you could call it a Gold Cup trial of sorts (albeit the Gold Cup is over 800m further), this year's renewal probably didn't tell us much as the first four finished split by less than a length. PRINCESS ZOE has shown plenty over distance including finishing runner up in last year's Gold Cup (news by the way the winner, SUBJECTIVIST, despite a life-threatening injury, is back in training and will be aimed at the 3000m race at the Saudi Cup meeting next January)and she battled through to just get the better of QUICKTHORN, who I thought ran with plenty of credit on his first time at the trip.

WORDSWORTH looked the likely winner 300m out but perhaps lack of an outing this season told and he flattened out to finish a close fourth. He should improve.

GO BEARS GO raced in top company as a juvenile and I liked his attitude when winning the 1200m Group 3 - as always, the Commonwealth Cup will be fiercely competitive but he goes there with real claims.

Friday saw day one of the Guineas meeting at Newmarket on ground described as Good with some faster places. The feature Group 2 Jockey Club Stakes saw Breeders Cup Turf winner YIBIR backed in to 1/4 to see off four rivals who were much inferior on ratings but it all went wrong and he was beaten by LIVING LEGEND. The late scratching of the likely pacesetter turned the race into a tactical affair and I thought YIBIR looked far from happy on the quick ground and the undulations. You can get away with it on the flat American tracks but on undulating circuits any issues with firm turf are quickly exposed. This wasn't YIBIR's form but the bookies weren't complaining.

 

[stodge 1,949]

The Punchestown Festival continued on Thursday with the ground still just on the slow side of Good.

The 6800m La Touche Cross Country Chase was won by a 15-y-o showing there's hope for us all. 

Two Championship races starting with the staying hurdlers over 4800m. KLASSICAL DREAM won this last year but despite a win at Christmas which some thought was rather fortunate had disappointed at Gowran and finished fifth to SIRE DU BERLAIS at Cheltenham. Despite that, he was favourite in what looked a decent renewal with PAISLEY PARK, another former Cheltenham winner, in the mix.

Champion Stayers Hurdle: 

Paul Townend always looked happy on KLASSICAL DREAM and was always in the right position and readily went on approaching the last. ASHDALE BOB ran on well and he's clearly on the upgrade and could be a player in the staying races next season. SIRE DU BERLAIS had won a thriller at Cheltenham but this was a different more tactical race which didn't play to his strengths and the same is probably true of PAISLEY PARK. It's fair to say the staying division has no real star currently.

The speed novice chasers had their race over 3200m but the late withdrawal of Aintree winner GENTLEMEN DU MEE due to a respiratory infection robbed the race of much of its interest.

Barberstown Castle Novices Chase: 

An epic duel between BLUE LORD and COEUR SUBLIME with the former just prevailing by a head. BLUE LORD had finished third in the Arkle with COEUR SUBLIME back in seventh (and done no favours by a faller at the last). The latter put up a much better effort and both reversed places with GABYNAKO who had chased home EDWARDSTONE at Cheltenham but who was well held here. I can't see any of them bothering ENERGUMENE and EDWARDSTONE in the big speed chases next season on this evidence.

On to Friday and the ground remained much the same but the hurdlers took centre stage with the Champion Hurdle (Ireland seems to have two, this one and one at Leopardstown in February which can be confusing) the feature. With EPATANTE heading for the mares race on Saturday, HONEYSUCKLE went off 1/5 to make it 16 straight wins.

Paddy Power Champion Hurdle: 

A facile win for a true champion. HONEYSUCKLE was entitled to win this easily and so she did. Putting her in the pantheon of hurdlers isn't easy but she would have to be one of the best of recent times. Whether CONSTITUTION HILL can and will lower her colours is a question for another time and another place - I suspect they won't meet until Cheltenham next March but if both arrive in top form and unbeaten it's going to be one of the most anticipated jump races for years.

STATE MAN had won the County Handicap at Cheltenham off a mark which looked lenient before the race and a complete joke after. The epithet "a Group horse in a handicap" was rarely more appropriate and now over 3950m, he was confidently expected to confirm his status as a championship class horse.

Alanna Homes Champion Novice Hurdle: 

Right up there with the best performances of the week so far, STATE MAN treated these with contempt and let's not forget they included Ballymore runner up and Aintree winner THREE STRIPE LIFE and 2021 Champion Bumper winner KILCRUIT. We can only imagine what would have happened had SIR GERHARD run in this rather than the 3200m on Tuesday. The point is STATE MAN is championship grade but is he a 3200m or a 4000m horse? There's not a lot for a gelding over the 4000m and whether he could go with the likes of HONEYSUCKLE and CONSTITUTION HILL at 3200m is a question which will have to wait for next winter but it's one that will be asked somewhere sometime and a lot of people will be keen on the answer.

[stodge 1,949]

A Godolphin 1-2 at Newmarket but not the order many had expected as COROEBUS defeated NATIVE TRAIL in a race not bereft of controversy or incident.

Was LUXEMBOURG unlucky to dwell and stumble and would he have won with a clear run?

Has EYDON run a huge Derby trial?

Would my long price eachway tip LUSAIL have got in the four with a better run?

Are there more questions than answers?

Full review to follow...

[stodge 1,949]

Quick word on the post-Guineas world (next week).

Monday is a public holiday in the UK and Ireland - The Curragh stages a decent card with the Group 2 Mooresbridge the feature. HIGH DEFINITION was a disappointing 3-y-o in all honesty having been at one point Derby favourite until being beaten in the Dante at York. Perhaps with another winter on his back he'll have physically developed - CADILLAC is top rated but wasn't brillaint on re-appearance. LAFAYETTE beat HIGH DEFINITION in the Alleged three weeks ago and could be improving.

The Chester May Festival kicks off on Wednesday - it's an iconic and unique course - like Taupo with a river and a Roman wall. It's not top quality action - the opening day has the Group 3 Vase over 2400m which is a recognised Derby trial. The second day has the Ormonde over 2700m for the staying older horses. The best race of the meeting is the Group 2 Huxley over 2050m on Friday for which AL AASY has been entered and is top priced 9/4 joint favourite with MEGALLAN who ran well at Newmarket (a very different track) the other day.

[stodge 1,949]

Plenty to review from Saturday and no better place to start than Newmarket for 2000 Guineas day. A glorious afternoon with sunshine but a chill overnight (down to -4c) meant no watering and the course rode Good to Firm, pretty fast ground for this early in the season.

The feature classic had 15 runners - favourite was last year's top juvenile NATIVE TRAIL who had won the two credential championship races in England and Ireland, the Dewhurst and the National, and had re-appeared with a convincing win in the Craven. He went off 5/4 favourite against his stable mate CORROEBUS, who had shown plenty of talent albeit not at Group 1 level last season. He was 9/2 with Aidan O'Brien's pair LUXEMBOURG and POINT LONSDALE next in the betting - the latter significantly supported from early 14s down to 7s primarily, I suspect, for being the mount of one Frankie Dettori.

Previous races had suggested the far side might have a slight advantage - KHAADEM had made every yard from the one stall to win the Group 3 Palace House over 1000m in the race before the Guineas:

2000 Guineas: 

A degree of redemption for James Doyle who narrowly lost on Kingman when beaten by Night of Thunder in 2014. This time he was on the right one and he saw it really well in a race with a lot to chew over.

NATIVE FLAIR, as I suspected, didn't look wholly comfortable running down into the Dip - he has quite a knee action in his slower paces and I think he'll always prefer slower ground though the steady uphill of Ascot would also be fine. I wouldn't want him on quick ground at Goodwood to be honest but he still ran with credit. He joins a list of short priced failures in the 2000 Guineas (of which the aforementioned Kingman was also one) but could easily regain the winning thread at The Curragh.

LUXEMBOURG did incredibly well - he got badly behind after an awkward start and was under pressure at half way but quickened into contention before being outpaced up the hill. Further will suit - whether Epsom will be ideal for this one I'm less certain but I suspect he'll take his chance and he's 5/2 for the 2400m classic in five weeks.

EYDON ran on well up the hill just as he did in the Feilden at the last meeting. He was only two lengths behind LUXEMBOURG yet he's 16s for the Derby which I find hard to fathom. It's often said the 2000 Guineas is the best Derby Trial and the third and fourth are both going to be key players in the middle distance division.

BERKSHIRE SHADOW outran his odds in fifth as did LUSAIL, another for whom there were plenty of valid excuses. A poor start compounded by interference as the field ran into the Dip and quite a few got unbalanced on the quick ground. He reversed places with PERFECT POWER and connections now have the dilemma of giving him another go at 1600m, perhaps at The Curragh or dropping back to 1400m for the Jersey.

PERFECT POWER blatantly didn't get home as I suspect his trainer thought would be the case but he's obviously got to be considered for the Commonwealth Cup.  The most disappointing run was from POINT LONSDALE who faded into tenth - seeing he went 1400m in June of his juvenile campaign, I strongly suspect he'll want a deal further and he's also 16s for the Derby.

The time was 1 minute 36.27 seconds which was okay but nothing special in the conditions.

CORROEBUS did it well despite not having had a prep run - he looked magnificent in the paddock. He's 10/1 for the Derby but it's quite clear from Charlie Appleby's post-race comments he'll stay at a mile though 2000m isn't ruled out and he'll be kept apart from NATIVE FLAIR as much as possible. CORROEBUS will go next for the St James's Palace at Ascot for which he is 4/6 and on yesterday's evidence it's hard to see one to stop him. A clash with BAAEED in the Sussex is already looming and that looks one to savour.

Over at Punchestown, it was the final day of the Festival and with rain falling for most of the afternoon, the ground downgraded from Good through Yielding to Soft by the end of the card. Two championship races on the final afternoon starting with the mares hurdle for which EPATANTE, runner up to HONEYSUCKLE in the Champion Hurdle, went off favourite.

Kew Gardens Champion Mares Hurdle: 

A rare win for the British in Ireland and for Nicky Henderson but it was the second string, MARIE'S ROCK, who won with EPATANTE in third. STORMY IRELAND was much better here and between the last two I thought she was going t see it out but MARIE'S ROCK won the Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham and has followed up in the equivalent race at Punchestown. I think she prefers the extra ground and her best form is over 4000m or similar. EPATANTE always looked to be struggling but wasn't beaten far.

The 4-y-o championship hurdle race saw Triumph Hurdle winner VAUBAN bid to confirm superiority over FIL D'OR. I can't find a video of the race unfortunately but I did watch it and VAUBAN was always going well and brushed aside FIL D'OR by four lengths. I do wonder if connections are still considering a Flat campaign and rumours of a tilt at Flemington in November aren't going away. He's a new factor in any Champion Hurdle mix and a clash with HONEYSUCKLE perhaps at Leopardstown next Christmas is already one to savour. 

 

[stodge 1,949]

A full report on CACHET's win in the 1000 Guineas to follow but at Longchamp this afternoon we had the Group 1 Ganay

Prix Ganay: 

Colour me surprised - I really didn't think on his first run since winning the Cox Plate STATE OF REST would be able to see off some of France's best 2000m horses but he did despite a late challenge from outsider PRETTY TIGER. SEALIWAY was third but both MARE AUSTRALIS and especially SKALLETI were disappointing. 

STATE OF REST is 8/1 for the Prince of Wales at Ascot. As a form line, STATE OF REST is now rated 120 - VERY ELLEGGANT gave him 1 lb and was beaten 1 length so that would put her on a European rating of 120 as well. I wonder if STATE OF REST might get a Melbourne Cup entry this year or whether he'll go back to Moonee Valley.

[stodge 1,949]

The third day of the Guineas meeting at Newmarket wasn't Ladies' Day for the humans (that happens later in the year) but the emphasis in the quality races was very much on the fillies and mares.

The ground remained quick after another dry night and day but it was a much colder and cloudier afternoon than the previous day and as a consequence come of the fillies didn't perhaps look at their very best.

The feature was the 1000 Guineas over the straight 1600m. Unlike the colts race 24 hours earlier, this looked much more open - Aidan O'Brien had arguably been unlucky with LUXEMBOURG in the 2000 Guineas but he had the front two in the market here with Cheveley Park winner TENEBRISM at 11/4 and the well-regarded TUESDAY at 4s. The French had a strong hand with MALAVATH and ZELLIE while the domestic trial form was headed by CACHET and HELLO YOU who had filled the first two places in the Nell Gwyn.

1000 Guineas: 

The great Frankel once made every yard on the Rowley Mile and while this performance was nowhere near as jaw-dropping as that epic day, it's still rare to see one horse lead a Guineas from trap to line but CACHET saw it out well for all there had been plenty of doubts about her stamina - that said, though she's by the sprinter Aclaim, the dam went 2400m so perhaps those fears were exaggerated. She's not in the Oaks but is in the Coronation.

If the winner was a surprise, the second was a complete shock - PROSPEROUS VOICE had chased home Inspiral twice (and on this evidence the latter would likely have won) but was an unconsidered 33/1 shot but the trainer's horses have bee in real form and I wonder if she'll head to Ireland.

TUESDAY was third - a decent effort but I didn't sense she was finishing that strongly. She's beautifully bred - Galileo out of Lillie Langtry and you'd certainly want to see her over at least 2400m if not further. I wonder if she might go to Epsom via a race like the Musidora.

ZELLIE and SANDRINE finished fourth and fifth but I was taken by AMEYNAH's effort in sixth on what was only her third start. She had impressed in a maiden but this was too much of a step and she did her cause no good with a poor start and even coming down into the Dip she looked all at sea but her finishing effort was decent and I think The Curragh would be ideal as would Ascot in due time.

The first six were split by three lengths and were then three lengths on from the others. The disappointments included DISCOVERIES, TENEBRISM and MALAVATH, none of whom threatened to get involved. Many are already saying the 2000 Guineas was a strong classic - the first three home were the first three in the market but the fillies' division looks much less clear after this weekend and it may be we won't see a clear pecking order until Ascot.

The Group 2 Dahlia over 1800m had just six runners but in a pulsating finish three were split by a nose and a short head at the line. EBAIYRA came off worst - she was a little out of her ground early and that might have made a different. VILLE DE GRACE was unruly at the start and you'd have to think that didn't help - DREAMLOPER was third to Saffron beach over 1600m at this track and was improving at the end of last season.. She's 20s for the Queen Anne and the Lockinge and I wonder if the Group 2 Duchess of Cambridge might be more realistic.

Pretty Polly has entered immortality and the race named after her in England is an Oaks Trial over 2000m and Godolphin unleashed another star in WITH THE MOONLIGHT who spreadeagled the field by nearly five lengths. The problem is she's by Frankel out of Sand Lady who was a sprinter and that makes her a full sister to DREAM CASTLE who races at 1800-2000m. She's in both the Oaks and the Ribblesdale but I'd just have some doubts at this stage.

More fallout from the 2000 Guineas - the fourth, EYDON, won't go for Epsom but will head for the Jockey Club at Chantilly. 

Wednesday sees the opening day at Chester - some rain has fallen and the ground is now Good. The opening day has both the classic trials which are run over 2350m. 10 go in the Oaks Trial which is only Listed grade. Joseph O'Brien's ABOVE THE CURVE was a ready winner at Leopardstown beating his father's THOUGHTS OF JUNE and it may well be these two will lead the others home. Just five go in the Group 3 Vase, the Derby Trial, NEW LONDON looked good winning a small race at Newmarket and should see off CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD who trotted up in a Dundalk maiden but that's a world away from Derby form.

[stodge 1,949]

Moving on from Newmarket and Chester's May Meeting starts tomorrow on Good ground.

Ten have been declared for the Group 3 Ormonde on Thursday over 2650m. ALBAFLORA is favourite and top rated and it's no surprise. In her last two runs, she was second in Group 1 events - behind the ill-fated Snowfall in the Yorkshire Oaks and then ESHAADA in the Fillies and Mares on Champions Day. Group 1 form at Group 3 level is appealing and I don't think 5/2 is a bad price. 

The other Group 1 form on the table belongs to BELIEVE IN LOVE - she was second in the Royallieu at Longchamp before a slightly disappointing fifth in the Grosser Preis von Bayern. 

Seven UK meetings on Saturday - five in the afternoon, two in the evening - but quality in short supply. Lingfield races on the grass and while there's a 1400m Group 3 for the fillies, the main races are the Derby and Oaks Trials which are both only Listed class races. Godolphin run WALK OF STARS, yet another son of Dubawi, in the Derby Trial and LIFE OF STARS in the Oaks Trial. The latter is a daughter of Dubawi and is the first foal of 2016 Vermeille and Royal Oak runner up Endless Time so you'd imagine stamina will be her forte but the manner of her Newbury maiden win on debut suggested there was a fair bit of speed in her as well and while the Oaks might be flying high, the Ribblesdale looks a real possibility.

Another initiative re-starting on Sunday is the Sunday Series where one meeting gets tv coverage and enhanced prize money. Hamilton Park, in central Scotland, is the first recipient. As an example, the second race is a Class4 handicap which has a first prize of just under £16,000. A similar Class 4 at Haydock the previous afternoon has first prize of £8,300. Part of Sunday's tv coverage will be three from Leopardstown including the Derby Trial which has a hugely impressive roll of past winners.  

[stodge 1,949]

Friday at Chester sees the highest quality race of the meeting, the Group 2 Huxley, over 2050m for the older horses.

The big news today, apart from a Ryan Moore treble, was the heavy rain which fell in the morning and turned the ground Soft.

Just five go in the Huxley and while MEGALLAN is 7/4 favourite, his soft ground form wouldn't encourage you. He ran well on decent ground in the Earl of Sefton the other day. The rain might make it more of a stamina test which would suit AL AASY who was second in last year's Coronation Cup at Epsom. SOLID STONE is a solid Group 3 performer but was well held in Saudi back in January and I'm expecting a big run from MAJESTIC DAWN who has strong soft ground form albeit at Listed level.

Saturday sees the iconic Kentucky Derby, the Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs and irrespective of whether you enjoy a mint julep or the Sun shining brightly on your old Kentucky home, a full field of 20 go for the £1.3 million pot. I'll leave Harry to comment more on the main fancies but it was hard to fault TAIBA's win in the Santa Anita Derby and I take him over Louisiana Derby winner EPICENTER and the Blue Grass winner ZANDON.

 

[Tauhei Notts 1,413]

Stodge, your comments on the Chester Vase would be appreciated.

The winner looked good but that Chester Vase seems to me to be more like Omoto, near Greymouth, than a true test of a horse's ability.  I like Galileo bloodlines.

Please advise if I am being too cynical.