RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
stodge

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Before throwing myself into the shark-infested waters of 2022, a few final reflections on 2021 up here.

Another difficult year for the sport both from events outside its control and from some self-inflicted wounds but I think horse racing has continued to provide much valued entertainment and support throughout difficult times.

The Flat season was, as always, a long and drawn out story of triumphs and disasters.

Perhaps for the first time we've seen a decisive swing in the balance of power away from Coolmore and Aidan O'Brien and back to Godolphin and Charlie Appleby. Certainly in terms of the prospects for next season, it's the latter who lead the way but as for this season's 3-y-o, it was much more even. Godolphin had the better of the long distance scene with Derby and King George winner ADAYAR and Leger winner HURRICANE LANE and with both due to stay in training as 4-y-o, it looks as though Godolphin will bring quality to events at 2400m and beyond.

That's not to say Aidan O'Brien didn't have quality - in ST MARK'S BASILICA, winner of the Eclipse and the Irish Champion, he had arguably the best 3-y-o and certainly the dominant player at 2000m. MOTHER EARTH was a model of consistency at 1600m but this was a vintage year for the filly milers with both ALCOHOL FREE and SNOW LANTERN winning Group 1 races. POETIC FLARE was the best of the colt milers running in seven successive Group 1 races and collecting the 2000 Guineas and St James's Palace among others.

At 1400m, SPACE BLUES continued to be the best of an increasingly competitive division and won the Foret to confirm his status.

STARMAN won the July Cup over 1200m at Newmarket but was edged out by EMARAATY ANA in a thriller at Haydock. The latter had come on from a narrow defeat to WINTER POWER in the Nunthorpe but while WINTER POWER reigned supreme at the Knavesmire, the stiffer 1000m at Ascot proved a slog as they went too fast too soon and up popped the 2020 July Cup winner OXTED to prove his versatility at the sprint distances.

Among the stayers, the crown rested uneasy on the head of STRADIVARIUS  - he was well beaten in the Gold Cup by SUBJECTIVIST but the latter's rise to the top was cruelly halted by a career ending injury. STRADIVARIUS seemed back to his best in an epic battle with SPANISH MISSION in the Lonsdale and a romp on fast ground at Doncaster but with the autumn rains came a new staying star in the shape of TRUESHAN who would relish the soft autumn ground to win the Cadran and the Long Distance Cup on Champions Day.

Oisin Murphy prevailed after a long battle with William Buick to retain the jockeys' title but a re-emergence of past demons led to him relinquishing his licence and seeking renewed treatment for drink and drug addiction.

The death of Sheikh Hamdan and the reduction of the Shadwell racing and breeding empire casts a shadow over Newmarket and other training centres.

As for the jumpers, the Irish routed the English 23-5 at Cheltenham taking most of the championship races. APPRECIATE IT and BOB OLINGER won the novice hurdles but SHISHKIN kept the Arkle at home. HONEYSUCKLE won the Champion Hurdle but it was all change in the Gold Cup with AL BOUM PHOTO's attempt at winning a third renewal of the Blue Riband failing at the hands of MINELLA INDO and Rachel Blackmore. Blackmore would further be propelled to international notice when becoming the first female jockey to win a Grand National at a deserted Aintree in April on MINELLA TIMES.

The Cheltenham meeting was overshadowed by a scandal which engulfed Gordon Elliott when pictures of him sitting astride a dead horse on the gallops surfaced. Elliott got a 6-month ban and racing's reputation got another trashing. Nonetheless, his loss was Henry de Bromhead's gain and the latter ended up as the new training power in the land.

Jockey Richard Johnson retired - he had the misfortune of being a contemporary of AP McCoy and was runner up no less than 15 times in the jockeys' title before winning it himself after McCoy retired.

The new season seemed to do little to dent Irish dominance. FRODON may have won at Down Royal but A PLUS TARD won the Betfair at Haydock and TORNADO FLYER took the King George and with any number of talents among the novice hurdlers and chasers Cheltenham 2022 looks like another tough gig for the home team.

I hope you've all enjoyed my ramblings in 2021 - more of the same, if not similar, in 2022 I fear.

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7 hours ago, Ohokaman said:

And the excitement machine of the year……BAAEED

👌

Yes, how could I forget BAAEED? Went from winning a Leicester maiden in June to two Group 1 successes in the Moulin and the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes. 

Among the 3-y-o colt milers we can then say the first half of the season belonged to POETIC FLARE and the second half to BAAEED. Very little between them on a line through PALACE PIER, the top older miler who won the Lockinge and the Queen Anne. PALACE PIER beat POETIC FLARE a neck in the Sussex and went down by a neck to BAAEED in the Queen Elizabeth II at Ascot.

Both PALACE PIER and POETIC FLARE have been retired so BAAEED looks the dominant force among the older milers - you'd think the Lockinge and Queen Anne would be his targets - and we'll just have to see how the classic generation shape up but whoever emerges ad the top 3-y-o miler will have a real fight at Goodwood.

Among the juveniles the British colts and fillies looked better with NATIVE TRAIL winning the National and the Dewhurst to go into winter quarters favourite for the 2000 Guineas and Derby while INSPIRAL was top rated filly after wins in the May Hill and the Fillies' Mile.

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Just to correct an error from a previous - last Saturday's card at Meydan was the first to have turf races but was not a Carnival meeting - they begin later in January. The handicaps at the non-Carnival meetings only go for £12k so the notion it's all big money racing in the UAE doesn't quite ring true.

I'll pick up on the New Year's Day racing presently.

A quick look ahead and Saturday's feature is the Grade 1 Tolworth at Sandown, a hurdle over 3200m which has doubled as a champion hurdle trial and a race for the novices in past years.

The ground at Esher is currently Soft, Heavy in places.

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Mixed fortunes for the various race courses on New Year's Day. At Cheltenham, nearly 30,000 turned up for the traditional start of year fixture but at Musselburgh there were no spectators owing to Scotland's tougher covid restrictions.

Cheltenham's card featured two Grade 2 races - in the Paddy Power Novices Chase over 4000m (a race better known as the Dipper), L'HOMME PRESSE put up a sparkling front running performance. His jumping was spot on - accurate without being flamboyant. It's likely he'll go for the 4000m novice chase at the Festival which is now known as the Turners. The problem is he'll likely come up against GALOPIN DES CHAMPS and that will be a race worth watching.

The Relkeel Hurdle over 4000m is named after a really good performer from a few years back who was a Cheltenham regular. It's an odd race as it has no equivalent at the Cheltenham Festival - there's no 4000m championship hurdle race at the meeting whereas the Aintree Hurdle a few weeks later fills that gap. On paper, BREWINUPASTORM and MCFABULOUS looked the two but in the end another British jumping prize went back across the Irish Sea with STORMY IRELAND coming out on top. He was arguably fortunate as BREWINUPASTORM was coming to challenge and travelling powerfully when taking a heavy fall at the last hurdle. Fortunately, both the horse and his rider, Aidan Coleman, got up.

McFABULOUS got lit up halfway through the race and was outpaced coming off the home turn but ran on well up the hill and I just wonder if they might look at the Stayers Hurdle for this one.

I forgot to mention the big Lawlor's Hurdle at Naas on Sunday - this is another novice over 4000m. It was won by the favourite GINTO who is now unbeaten in three over the smaller obstacles. It was probably a shrewd move to avoid the Leopardstown races and doubtless GINTO has plenty of ability but we need to see him up against something of a higher standard.

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A quiet weekend coming here in the UK and Ireland - it's often a weekend disrupted by the weather but I don't think that will happen this year.

6 go in the Grade 1 Tolworth at Sandown for the novice hurdlers over 3200m. CONSTITUTION HILL is 2/5 favourite on the back of a really favourable impression at the last Sandown meeting winning a novice hurdle by 14 lengths. It's hard to know what to make of the form but as he hails from the powerful Henderson yard you'd think he was well above average.

MR GLASS hails from the Nicholls yard and has won his hurdles starts albeit over further while DATSALLGINO won a lesser graded race at Cheltenham. The problem with the latter is all his form is on much better ground. JETOILE is another who has won over further which leaves the relatively inexperienced SHALLWEHAVEONEMORE whose sole hurdles run was a second in a fair race at Ascot.

The truth is if he's a serious Cheltenham contender CONSTITUTION HILL needs to win this and do it well.

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Not a day for the faint hearted yesterday. Heavy persistent rain from mid morning left the track at Sandown officially Heavy (in NZ terms probably a Heavy 15 !!).

It was a right bloodbath for punters with the televised races from Sandown and Wincanton featuring winners at 40s and 80s thus knocking out many an accumulator. The feature chase at Sandown was for the veterans (horses aged 10 years and over) and the 40/1 winner at Wincanton was a past winner of that race, one JEPECK, who bolted up in a handicap hurdle by 20 lengths at the ripe old age of 13.

More evidence (if any were needed) there's hope for us all.

The Grade 1 action at Sandown was the Tolworth and CONSTITUTION HILL was the well-hyped 2/5 favourite on the strength of a facile win over another highly-rated type over the course and distance at the last meeting. One or two wondered if the heavy ground would be an issue:

Tolworth Hurdle: 

Clearly, the ground wasn't an issue and he bolted up by 12 lengths. Trainer Nicky Henderson has the unenviable position of having the top two in the market for the Supreme Novices in the shape of this horse and recent Newbury winner JONBON though you'd think the latter might just be more of a 4000m type. Nonetheless, both horses are clearly very good and I can't wait to see this one over fences one day but that won't be for a while yet.

JETOILE represents the other end of the training ladder - his handler, Ryan Potter, has only 16 horses and indeed works as a farrier for a number of the big stables in Gloucestershire and the Cotswolds.

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Harry has already reported this but very sad news out of Ireland late this afternoon with Aidan O'Brien confirming the death of Oaks winner SNOWFALL.

https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/record-breaking-oaks-heroine-snowfall-suffers-fatal-injury-says-aidan-obrien/531490

Apparently she suffered a serious pelvic injury - initially the prognosis was good but her condition deteriorated so much in the past couple of days euthanasia was the only option.

It's a huge breeding loss as she was a daughter of Deep Impact and arguably his most successful daughter outside the Far East (SAXON WARRIOR his most successful son).

She won the English Oaks by an incredible 16 lengths and followed up in the Irish and Yorkshire Oaks putting her right in the frame for the Arc before she was beaten in the Vermeille by TEONA. From there, she still ran in the European championship race and finished sixth, beaten less than five lengths and barely a length behind the Derby and King George winner ADAYAR. Her career ended with a third in the Champions Day Fillies & Mares and the plan was for her to go to ST MARK'S BASILICA in the spring.

Just as a reminder of how good she was, the 2021 English Oaks: 

 

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The Meydan Carnival kicks off this Friday - it's a long journey to Dubai World Cup night on March 26th.

For the first time, the Carnival meetings will be on Friday for the most part - they've previously been on a Thursday but perhaps given the importance of Fridays in the Islamic calendar, the authorities think they'll get more coming on from Friday prayers to the races.

The opening card features two Group 2 races - the first round of the Al Maktoum Challenge is run over 1600m on the Dirt. SECRET AMBITION was a 6-length winner of the Godolphin Mile on World Cup night having been well held in the Group 1 third and final round of this challenge by SALUTE THE SOLDIER. The latter finished fifth with HYPOTHETICAL fourth in the World Cup itself which was decent but I just think back at this trip SECRET AMBITION looks the one. 

The Cape Verdi is for the fillies and mares over 1600m on the grass. SOFT WHISPER is clear top rated having won the UAE 1000 Guineas in a canter last year but she was well held by the colts in both the Saudi and UAE Derbies and while she won a Listed at Newmarket in the autumn, she was found out at Group 3 level.

She's one of three for Godolphin and Frankie Dettori rides for Saeed Bin Suroor but Charlie Appelby has two strong contenders and William Buick rides WEDDING DANCE who was behind SOFT WHISPER at Newmarket but did it well on the Tapeta at Wolverhampton in a lesser race and over just 1400m. It's an open and slightly weak race for the grade - a tentative selection is the French galloper PEVENSEY BAY who ran well at Deauville last time in Listed company.

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Not the busiest of weekends in the UK coming up.

The main fixtures on Saturday are at Kempton and Warwick. 

Just four go in the Grade 2 Silviniaco Conti Chase at Kempton over 4050m. The ground has dried to Soft, Good to Soft in places.  Top rated and favourite is MISTER FISHER for whom this will be a drop in grade after contesting races like the Ryanair, the Betway Bowl and last time the King George and, to be honest, he's been well found out at Grade 1.

ROUGE VIF is a 3200m chaser who likes the ground really quick so I'm doubtful about him on this and he was well beaten at Cheltenham on his seasonal bow. ELDORADO ALLEN won the Haldon at Exeter but was beaten in the Peterborough at Huntingdon and is another for whom 4050m is a question. A couple of years ago, DEFI DU SEUIL would have picked these up and carried them - he won the 2019 Tingle Creek and the 2020 Clarence House but since then it's been a tale of failure and he was a long way behind at Ascot last time.

It's quite a sad race strangely as all of these have had better days - I'm not going to play as they are all woefully inconsistent these days but if I took $10 out of Scooby's pocket I'd put it on ELDORADO ALLEN.

It's similar ground at Warwick and they have two Grade 2 races - the Hampton is a chase for the staying novices over 4800m and features THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE who was impressive in a Grade 2 at Doncaster last time albeit probably not beating much. His jumping is his strong point and Warwick is quite a test with a series of fences after the hill. He's 8/15 but as the saying goes up here, there are fools, damn fools and people who bet odds on in novice chases so not for me.

Seven go in the Leamington Hurdle for the intermediate novices over 4100m. This lot would be on the fringes of the Ballymore field at Cheltenham at first but if any one of them were to win really well it would of course be noted in the ante post markets. Favourite is SURREY QUEST from the powerful Henderson yard and he's done nothing wrong in two novice hurdles but this is the big step up as it is for STAG HORN who won his only hurdle in a nothing race at Hereford.

I quite like VIVA LAVILLA who I saw win at Lingfield and then ran a decent second in a Grade 2 at Sandown though the winner of that race, LOSSIEMOUTH, was well beaten in the Challow in which PARTY BUSINESS fell when disputing second but wouldn't have beaten the winner in my view. That's why I suspect this is a moderate race in quality terms.

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On 1/12/2022 at 6:00 PM, stodge said:

The Meydan Carnival kicks off this Friday - it's a long journey to Dubai World Cup night on March 26th.

The opening card features two Group 2 races - the first round of the Al Maktoum Challenge is run over 1600m on the Dirt.  but I just think back at this trip SECRET AMBITION looks the one. 

The Cape Verdi is for the fillies and mares over 1600m on the grass. It's an open and slightly weak race for the grade - a tentative selection is the French galloper PEVENSEY BAY who ran well at Deauville last time in Listed company.

A decent start to the Meydan Carnival for followers of @stodge

SECRET AMBITION just failed in a thrilling finish to the Al Maktoum Challenge which went to GOLDEN GOAL who he had beaten six lengths in the Godolphin Mile. To be fair, GOLDEN GOAL had run four weeks back so had the fitness edge. KAFOO ran on really well for third - out of Curtin so a good Dirt pedigree and I'd love to see him step up to 2000m. 

The Cape Verdi saw my faith in the French rewarded as PEVENSEY BAY popped up at 13/2 coming with a traditional late French run to mug Norwegian challenger ASCOT BRASS (the Scandinavians aren't doing too badly so far) with WEDDING DANCE a close third. The winning mare had shown plenty in France and can go on in other races in this class. Unfortunately, the well backed favourite, SOFT WHISPER, ran a stinker finishing last.

Two very impressive wins earlier in the card - BET LAW, a top Brazilian trained horse who had won two in Uruguay bolted up in the 1200m conditions for the 3-y-o. Given he's a southern hemisphere, he was giving the northerners 7 lbs but this was still very good and bodes well.

Performance of the evening was DUBAI FUTURE in the 2400m Listed on the grass. He was fifth in the Sheema Classic last year and it had all happened too quickly in Bahrain last time but he absolutely bolted up winning by five and a half lengths. He's another I'm looking forward to seeing later on.

 

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I'm conscious I've not picked up on the entrails of last weekend's jump racing.

At Kempton, MISTER FISHER put up a decent performance to win a poor Grade 2 Silviniaco Conti Chase. In the end, he had too much stamina at the 4000m trip for ELDORADO ALLEN who really is a 3200m type on this evidence. Another poor run by DEFI DU SEUIL and I suspect his racing days might be over soon.

At Warwick, THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE duly won the staying novice chase but it seems connections want to swerve the championship race for the staying novices at Cheltenham in favour of the National Hunt Chase for the amateur riders which used to be run over 6400m but has been shortened back to 6000m.

It's surprising but stayers on the flat don't always cut it over hurdles - there have been some notable exceptions in Ireland but generally in the UK we like our hurdlers to be 2000-2400m types on the flat as that shows they have a bit of speed. STAG HORN was fourth in the longest flat race of them all in the UK, the Queen Alexandra at Ascot, over some 4400m and his last time on the flat had seen him win over 4000m at Pontefract. He'd won a nothing race at Hereford on hurdling debut but stepped up in style to win the Grade 2 Leamington over 4000m making every yard. It might be a bit premature to call him the next big staying hurdler but he has bags of potential and I hope they'll put him up in trip next season. 

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A January Friday wouldn't normally be worth a preview piece on its own but we have the second Meydan Carnival meeting as well as the first day of the inaugural Winter Millions fixture at Lingfield which is effectively Cheltenham for the mudlarks.

No such issues at Meydan where the turf is usually perfect and the Dirt nearly always fast. The Group 2 Al Rashidiya over 1800m on the grass has 11 entries and top rated is our old mate LORD GLITTERS. He's nine years young so would fit right into a Gore Cup and was third in this last year before going on to win the Jebel Hatta. His British campaign this year was more mixed with the highlight a decent fourth to PALACE PIER in the Queen Anne. Last time, he beat BARNEY ROY in the Bahrain International and comes here in good heart.

Godolphin have five in the race - William Buick is on ART DE VAL who was beaten less than a length by LORD GLITTERS in the Jebel Hatta. The problem is ART DE VAL hasn't been seen in nearly a year and that has to be a concern.

The Al Fahidi Fort is over 1400m on the grass. 14 go and four come from Godolphin including top rated NAVAL CROWN who was fourth in the 2000 Guineas. His two subsequent runs at Ascot and Deauville were both on soft ground and I'm looking forward to seeing this one back on a sound surface. LA BAROSSA was sixth in the Irish 2000 Guineas and tenth in the St James's Palace and had a nice pipe-opener in a non-Carnival race a couple of weeks ago. LAND OF LEGENDS won this last year before running fifth in both the Turf Sprint at Riyadh and the Dubai Turf. It may be first time up is the time to catch him but NAVAL CROWN looks a serious opponent.

As it's the inaugural fixture, none of the Winter Millions races at Lingfield has been graded but it looks a decent card for the money and if you want to go it's only £40 to get in - yes, you got that right - more expensive than Newmarket on Guineas Day !!! 

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Saturday's main cards are at Ascot and Haydock.

At Ascot, the Grade 1 Clarence House over 3400m features a mouth watering clash between arguably the best speed chasers in England and Ireland in the form of SHISHKIN and ENERGUMENE. They had been due to clash in last year's Arkle but ENERGUMENE suffered a late injury and SHISHKIN was left to win the race.

As we know, SHISHKIN missed the Tingle Creek but returned in style at Kempton over Christmas.

ENERGUMENE had won the Irish Arkle last February and was imperious at Punchestown in April thrashing JANIDIL by 16 lengths. He had a nice pipe opener in the Hilly Way at Cork in early December.

On ratings, there's nothing between them - the ground is Soft which will suit them both. I'm just in the SHISHKIN camp but I just hope it's a real classic.

Six go in the Grade 2 Warfield, a staying hurdle over 4700m for the mares. MOLLY OLLYS WISHES is effective from 3200 to 4800m but she was a shade disappointing behind BUZZ in November and the ex-Irish WESTERN VICTORY may be up to this now she's with the very talented Emma Lavelle.

At Haydock, the ground is Soft, Heavy in places for its first Trials meeting (there's another next month). The opening 4000m novices chase features MINELLA DRAMA who couldn't cope with the speedballs in the Henry VIII last time - this will be much quieter waters and he could well bounce back.

The Rossington Main is named after an old colliery and used to be run at Doncaster. CONSTITUTION HILL went to the top of the Supreme Novices Hurdle market after his facile win in the Tolworth but his stable mate JONBON has also looked very good on two outings and is 2/5 to make it a three timer. 

The Unibet Hurdle over 3200m is marketed as a Champion Hurdle Trial which it isn't. TOMMY'S OSCAR is 8/13 after three handicap wins on better ground in the north. He's rated 156 but that would only make him an outsider at best at Cheltenham. I much prefer HUNTER'S CALL who ran well at Cheltenham last time.

The Peter Marsh over 5000m is effectively the Gold Cup Trial though with the new Winter Millions and the Cotswold next weekend at Cheltenham there are plenty of options for the championship chasers seeking a pre-Cheltenham outing. ROYALE PAGAILLE was sixth, beaten 50 lengths, in last year's Gold Cup after winning this race under top weight. He's got topweight again and was no match for A PLUS TARD in the Betfair but such is the state of the British chasers he's the favourite again.

REMASTERED lumped 11 stone 13 lbs to second place in the Tommy Whittle and gets 17 lbs from ROYALE PAGAILLE and will think he's loose. I prefer EMPIRE BLUE off an even lighter weight who was in the process of running a big race in the Rowland Meryck at Wetherby on Boxing Day when falling. 

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Starting the review of the weekend with last Friday's Carnival meeting at Meydan.

Two Group 2 races on the turf - the first was the Al Rashadiya over 1800m. Jebel Hatta winner LORD GLITTERS was well fancied despite his advancing years but on a good night for Godolphin through the card it was Saeed Bin Suroor who had the edge in this one with DESERT FIRE holding off the late challenges of the Appleby pair ROYAL FLEET and ART DU VAL. On the form, you'd think DESERT FIRE would be better over further and indeed last time was second over 2400m at Kempton but he had enough tactical speed to race with the pace and held on well.

ROYAL FLEET won three in Britain last year and ended up winning a Class 2 handicap at Doncaster off a mark of 100 so this was another step forward and the removal of the meat and two veg doesn't seem to have bothered him too much. ART DU VAL put up an excellent effort after nearly a year off and you'd think there'd be improvement to come through the campaign. LORD GLITTERS finished well for fourth but it may be 2000m is what he now needs as he seems to have lost that edge of tactical speed at this trip.

The Al Fahidi Fort over 1400m saw NAVAL CROWN, who had run fourth in the 2000 Guineas and second in the Jersey, go off 4/6 and he duly obliged with a bunch finish for the places. They've not gelded this son of Dubawi which suggests they still think he has a Group 1 in him - whether here in Meydan or elsewhere I'm not sure but I'd put BAAEED up against him in Europe at this time. This was still a strong performance with STORY OF LIGHT and ZAINHOOM filling the minor places at big prices.

Earlier on the card it had been a Godolphin benefit with nice winds for SILENT SPEECH in the 1200m. The latter is by Dubawi out of Epitome and he's a full to a fair sort in QUINTILLUS and to a recent Meydan maiden winner in DURANDAL both of whom have already been gelded. The 1800m Jumeirah Derby Trial saw expected Godolphin favourite NEW KINGDOM turned over by ISLAND FALCON under a canny Dettori ride for his old boss Saeed Bin Suroor.  ISLAND FALCON is by Iffraaj out of Adoringly - this is her third foal - and he could be anything.

In the Dirt races, ALBAHR flopped badly in the 2000 Guineas Trial which went to 16/1 shot RAWY who had been turned over at Jebel Ali last time. He led home runners from Brazil and Uruguay and the South American runners are getting better on this surface and it won't be long before they are trading blows with the Europeans and the locals. AL TARIQ confirmed his status as one of the top Dirt sprinters with an emphatic win in the 1200m Group 3 - he performs well at this grade and looks ready for a move up to the top table.

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Saturday saw the main British jumps meetings at Ascot and Haydock which took place on a cold but dry afternoon.

At Haydock, the "trials" meeting for Cheltenham saw the three Grade 2 races all go to the favourites who, in various ways, enhanced their prospects for Cheltenham whose opening day is just seven weeks away.

The Rossington Main for the novices hurdle saw JONBON put up a workmanlike performance. He got quite worked up in the preliminaries - his previous races at Newbury would have bene short trips from his home stable in Lambourn but this was much further. In the race, he travelled well enough and had a couple of bits of good fortune but was under pressure a the last as RICHMOND PARK threatened a more serious examination. JONBON won by three lengths but given RICHMOND PARK is rated 13 lbs his inferior and they met over levels I was left more than a little underwhelmed.

The Champion Hurdle Trial saw TOMMY'S OSCAR follow up his northern handicap wins without too much fuss but he's no more than on the fringes of the championship ranks. His owner and trainer, Ian and Ann Hamilton, are very much at the David end of racing and for them to even have a runner worth a place in a Champion Hurdle is a huge achievement.

The Peter Marsh over 5000m was the big staying chase and last year's winner ROYALE PAGAILLE followed up under a never-say-die ride from Charlie Deutsch to just see off SAM BROWN  who was getting 16 lbs from the winner. Fair play to ROYALE PAGAILLE, he's decent but he's been found out at the very top level and unless it comes up a bog at Cheltenham which seems unlikely I can't see him bothering the top Irish contenders.

Ascot saw the Grade 2 Mares hurdle in which MOLLY OLLY'S WISHES redeemed her reputation after a disappointing effort behind BUZZ in November. I suspect she may end up in a race like the National Spirit as se doesn't look good enough for the big mares race at Cheltenham.

The feature was the Grade 1 Clarence House and the long-awaited clash between last season's two exceptional novices, SHISHKIN and ENERGUMENE.

Clarence House Chase: 

A fantastic race - Paul Townend did everything right on ENERGUMENE and on almost any other day it would have worked. Nico de Boinville had to dig much deeper on SHISHKIN than he has had to in his other races but we know he does get further than 3200m and he showed a real turn of foot after the last to run down the Irish raider close to the post.

Both horses ran huge races and the race really lived up to its star billing. The re-match at Cheltenham will add different variables - there's some evidence ENERGUMENE is better going right handed but I think the jumping test on the quicker ground will help. I think SHISHKIN may be better left handed so I'd be on the status quo in March but if they met again at Punchestown I think ENERGUMENE would prevail. We sometimes see a generation with no real quality yet other times it's a vintage crop (as it were) and last year's speed novice chasers were clearly a very strong division.

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Looking ahead to the end of the week, there's another Carnival meeting at Meydan on Friday.

A full eight race card features five on the turf and three on the dirt. The feature is the Group 2 Zabeel Mile on the grass. 13 go headed by REAL WORLD who was a revelation last summer starting with a win in the ultra-competitive Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot and ending with success in the Daniel Wildenstein over Arc weekend. He's gone up nearly two stone since runs in dirt handicaps and off 118 should pick up this race.

The UAE 1000 Guineas looks a penalty kick for trail winner SHAHAMA but she faces a potential challenger in Swedish runner and commentator's nightmare UCHCHAIHSHRAVAS, winner of her only race at Bro Park by six lengths last June.

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With entries and some weights published this week, the shadow of Cheltenham lengthens over the racing scene up here with barely 6 weeks until the fun and games down Gloucestershire way.

From now on, all the significant races become "trials" for the championship races at Prestbury Park. 

Indeed, Saturday's card is called "Trials Saturday" which does rather give the game away. Three Grade 2 races set to be run on Good ground after an extraordinarily day January. The question is whether the dry spell will continue in which case these races may have some relevance to the big events in March which would be run on a similar surface or whether the heavens will open and the ground will be much softer - for now, that's a huge unknown.

8 go in the trial for the Triumph, the juvenile hurdle over 3200m for the 4-y-o. Top rated is FOREVER WILLIAM who did me a nice turn each way at Chepstow over Christmas but he was beaten nearly 10 lengths that day in third. On the same day, the ex-French type ICEO absolutely hosed up at Kempton - if he handles the undulations of Cheltenham, I think he's the one but there are a couple of other unbeaten types in SILVER SHADE and the Irish raider PIED PIPER who could be anything.

Just five go in the Cotswold over the Gold Cup course and distance. CHANTRY HOUSE has to bounce back from a poor run in the King George and they've put cheekpieces on him. The track and ground hold no fears but if he's a serious Gold Cup horse he has to win this and well. The Scottish challenger AYE RIGHT won the Rehearsal at Newcastle but he's got to prove he deserves a place in the Gold Cup field. SIMPLY THE BETTS has to prove this trip works.

Just five also in the Cleeve for the staying hurdlers over 4800m. CHAMP won the Long Walk at Ascot to jump right into the Stayers' Hurdle market and he should be too good for MCFABULOUS and PAISLEY PARK on this ground over this trip.

At Doncaster, THIRD TIME LUCKI is on a recovery mission in the 3200m Lightning Chase after being well beaten by EDWARDSTONE in the Henry VIII at Sandown. To be fair, with only two opponents rated inferior, he should win this easily.  

The Mares hurdle over 3200m is yet another small field - just five. WESTERN VICTORY ran herself out at Ascot last weekend and I'm not convinced about such a quick renewal. MIRANDA finished second to the winner of that race at Ascot last Saturday, MOLLY OLLY'S WISHES, at Wetherby on seasonal bow and won easily at Ludlow after that. She's another short priced favourite who should oblige.

Finally, we have a much more open River Don for the staying novice hurdlers over 4850m. Whether any of these will be good enough for the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham is debatable but at least we have a more open heat with seven runners. MY BOBBY DAZZLER is top rated but all his form is on flat sharp tracks and even though the ground will be on the quick side,  Doncaster may not be ideal. UNANSWERED PRAYERS is favourite at 11/4 but this is a big step on winning small novice races. I quite like MAHLER MISSION who came over from Ireland and bolted up in a nothing race at Sedgefield. I suspect he's a fair bit better than that.

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I've not mentioned the small matter of the Pegasus at Gulfstream Park tomorrow evening (UK).

Harry has covered it in his usual exemplary fashion.

The Turf goes for just over £440k and with no overseas runners looks a weak if competitive heat. 

The £1.3 million Dirt race over 1800m looks a match between two real stars of US racing - KNICKS GO and LIFE IS GOOD. The former was recently crowned Longines Horse of the Year 2021 and this is his swan song before he heads off to stud. He was a convincing winner of the Classic at Del Mar in November and that should be good enough and indeed would be good enough most years.

If he's the king, the heir apparent is LIFE IS GOOD who was brilliant in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile. I thought that night he would get this trip comfortably but to take on KNICKS GO is no easy task. I just think on this sharp 1800m LIFE IS GOOD can run down the favourite and I hope connections will look at the Saudi Cup and a clash with MISHRIFF which will be worth crawling over broken glass to see.

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Starting the review of the weekend with last Friday's action at Meydan.

The feature Group 2 was the Zabeel Mile and as expected REAL WORLD was too good for these. Positioned on the rail from the inside berth, he got a lovely run through in the straight and settled it in the final 300m without much fuss. Godolphin had a 1-3-4 with ONE RULER and PATH OF THUNDER in the minor places while Shadwell had the runner up with outsider ALFAREEQ who reversed earlier non-Carnival form with PATH OF THUNDER. I presume the plan for REAL WORLD will b a Group 1 at 1600-1800m.

Elsewhere, Godolphin enjoyed their usual high level of success - it was a 1-3-4-5 in the 2800m conditions race with James Doyle enjoying top spot on SISKANY who won a warm 2400m handicap at Newmarket before a couple of lesser runs in the autumn. STAR SAFARI was a ready winner of the 2000m Listed race. Godolphin didn't have it all their own way with SHAHAMA bolting up in the 1000 Guineas - she looks a very nice dirt filly but it remains to be seen how strong the form is.

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On then to Saturday and a series of Cheltenham "Trial" races at, not surprisingly, Cheltenham and Doncaster.

Starting at Prestbury Park on a fine but windy afternoon where racing took place on ground described as Good, Good to Soft in places (which is, I suspect, what the Clerk will be hoping to call the ground six weeks from today).

In the Trial for the juvenile hurdlers, ominous signs for the home team as PIED PIPER hosed up for Irish trainer Gordon Elliott. Granted, he probably didn't face the best of the British but this was a powerful and impressive performance and PIED PIPER was cut to 5/2 favourite for the Triumph with stable mate FIL BON at 7/2 and PORTICELLO the best of the British at 14s.

The Cotswold has been a Gold Cup trial but it was a strange race this year. CHANTRY HOUSE did quite a lot to lose the race including jump sloppily but in the end and thanks I thought to an inspired ride by Nico de Boinville, he got up to beat his former stable mate SANTINI and the Scottish raider AYE RIGHT. However, if that's good enough to win a Gold Cup in any year, I'd be very surprised.

One who has tackled Gold Cups is CHAMP and he went off short priced favourite to take the Cleeve for the staying hurdlers but this was a rare setback for Team Henderson as he was well held by veteran PAISLEY PARK who has won this race the last three occasions it has been run at Cheltenham (abandoned in 2021). Oddly enough, PAISLEY PARK did plenty to lose the race by gifting the others 15 lengths start and you could have had any price after the second last when he looked to be struggling but he powered up the hill and in the end won cosily. However, he won't be so lucky in the Stayers and while I can see him running a place it's a race which in modern times often goes to a younger horse and is probably another race booked for the Irish.

Up at Doncaster, THIRD TIME LUCKI had little more than an exercise canter to win the Lightning - we know he jumps really well and the quicker the ground the better but I suspect they won't allow him to have good to firm on day 1 of the festival. MISS HERITAGE was another who enjoyed the unseasonably dry ground to win a weak Mares Hurdle. and for those who follow my ramblings MAHLER MISSION won the River Don at the awarding odds of 11/2 but he's another who will best be on the fringes at the Festival.

In the evening, well, for the British here, attention shifted 3,000 miles west to Florida and the Pegasus at Gulfstream Park.

The Pegasus World Cup Invitational, worth a modest £1.3 million was billed as a match between Classic winner KNICKS GO, running his last race before heading to stud and young pretender LIFE IS GOOD, who had won the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile.

Pegasus World Cup Invitational: 

This wasn't a match, it was a rout. A brilliant front running performance by LIFE IS GOOD who wasn't stopping at the end of 1800m and you could just see him easily coping with another 200m. 

Trainer Todd Pletcher was already talking about the USD 20 million Saudi Cup before this performance and I can't imagine connections not being tempted as we know he stays 1800m really well. He could face MISHRIFF and last week's emphatic Meydan scorer REAL WORLD for the huge race three weeks on Saturday.

 

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Looking down the week, we have another Meydan Carnival meeting on Friday.

Two Group 2 races on a 6-race card of Dirt and turf races. The second round of the Al Maktoum Challenge over 1950m on the Dirt has 12 runners. The star here is the American galloper HOT ROD CHARLIE who brings far and away the best form.

Last year,  he won the Louisiana Derby before running a close third to MEDINA SPIRIT in the Kentucky Derby. From there, HOT ROD CHARLIE was runner up to ESSENTIAL QUALITY in the Belmont before being disqualified and placed last after being first past the post in the Haskell.

A win in the Pennsylvania Derby was followed by a fourth place behind KNICKS GO in the Breeders Cup Classic. It's slightly worrying he was turned over at 1/5 in the San Antonio on Boxing Day but he's had a good break and should pick these up and carry them on his way to a tilt at the Saudi Cup and/or the Dubai World Cup.

The Balanchine is for the fillies and mares over 1800m on the grass. Godolphin have six of the ten runners but it was the ex-French PEVENSEY BAY who won the Cape Verdi, the earlier equivalent of this but she now has a 4 lb penalty which won't help. It's interesting William Buick has overlooked the Godolphin runners who contested the Cape Verdi in favour of CREATIVE FLAIR who showed some decent form in Britain and France before going to America and earning minor places in the Saratoga Oaks and the Jockey Club Oaks which might not be top notch races but are decent for American turf racing and a reproduction of that will put her in with a real chance.

Closer to home and this weekend sees all eyes focussed on Leopardstown for the Dublin Racing Festival. It's not been around long but has already firmly established its place in the jumping season and Ireland's 23-5 demolition of the races at Cheltenham in 2021 showed for all the talk of "Trials" in the UK over the past few weeks, the real trial races are this weekend on the outskirts of Dublin at the course near the huge Microsoft European HQ building at Foxrock.

On Saturday, 3 Leopardstown races will feature in an 11-race free to air marathon on ITV - I was thinking of going to Lingfield but may stay in and watch the jumping action instead.

Five more races on Sunday and each day has four Grade 1 or Championship races.

I'll talk much more about Saturday's racing after the final declarations tomorrow.

 

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Saturday looks a really busy day for the jumpers with day one of the Dublin Racing Festival and with the top trainers Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott both having the track a thumbs up yesterday (they've thrown 160mm of water through January incredible as that may seem - do that to an NZ track in July and see what you get). As a result, both the top trainers have entered big teams for the two-day meeting.

Four Grade 1 races on the Saturday card starting with the 4400m novices hurdle which could be a trial for either the 4200m Ballymore or the 4800m Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham. Gordon Elliott runs two including the likely favourite HOLLOW GAMES but he was a touch disappointing when third at Naas at New Year and I just wonder if one or two others might improve past him. Mullins runs three and my eye is drawn to BRONN who won a maiden hurdle on the same Naas card which would obviously not have been such a strong race but by all accounts it was a facile win. Elliott's second runner MINELLA BLOOMER might find this a bit sharp but a good run will put him right in contention for the Albert Bartlett.

FIL DOR and VAUBAN are second and third favourites for the Triumph behind last weekend's Cheltenham winner PIED PIPER and they clash in the Juvenile hurdle trial. VAUBAN was 4/9 when turned over by PIED PIPER at Punchestown on heavy ground and it may be better ground will help but it will have to as FIL DOR is unbeaten in three including a Grade 2 over this course and distance on St Stephen's Day. 

Mullins has three of the six runners in the 3400m Novice Chase. This may be a division where the British have the better challengers this time. BLUE LORD has looked good in his two chases to date but this will be a proper test.

The feature is the Irish Gold Cup over 4800m, the premier championship staying chase in the Irish calendar. It's a significant race but it's not the Cheltenham Gold Cup which is run over further and over an undulating track. Leopardstown is more like a Newbury or Haydock to be honest.

MINELLA INDO won the Cheltenham Gold Cup last year but ran a shocker in the King George at Kempton and this is a recovery mission. At his best he wins this and on the figures he's 8 lbs ahead of the others who are represented by four within 2 lbs (164-166 on the ratings). FRODON is the British star who won at Down Royal but he was well held at Kempton and I just wonder if we've seen the best of him. KEMBOY loves Leopardstown, won this last year and was a close third in the Savils at Christmas. I see no reason why he won't go close. He holds JANIDIL on that while there are big questions over ASTERION FORLONGE's jumping. If you knew he would put in a clear ground you could really fancy him but he belts too many too often. DELTA WORK isn't the horse he was two years ago and the other two look outclassed.

It's an 8-runner field but there's little margin but KEMBOY would be my idea of the winner.

The big Grade 1 in England is the Scilly Isles (named after a roundabout), a novice chase over 4000m. Not a vintage renewal and while L'HOMME PRESSE is a worthy favourite after his convincing win in the Dipper at Cheltenham, he faces PIC D'ORHY who won well at Ascot and may just be better going right handed.

AHOY SENOR was no match for BRAVEMANSGAME at Kempton over Christmas but seeks to atone in the Towton at Wetherby. 

I''ll preview Sunday's Leopardstown card tomorrow.

 

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Four Grade 1 races are the highlight of the second day of the Dublin Racing Festival on Sunday.

The Ladbrokes Chase for the intermediate novices sees the re-appearance of arguably the most impressive winner of the Leopardstown Christmas meeting - GALOPIN DES CHAMPS. He was a class above his rivals that day and that's why he's 1/2 to follow up. He won over hurdles at 4800m so this 4200m race shouldn't be an issue. I think he's a future Gold Cup contender and he'll have to win this well to continue his upward trajectory. MASTER MCSHEEN was a last gasp winner of the Faugheen at Limerick but that was on heavy ground and this will be a very different proposition.

The Dublin is the race for the speed chasers over 3200m. CHACUN POUR SOI won it well last year but he flopped at Sandown in December and this is a recovery mission. In truth, he and GREANETEEN are probably playing for places behind SHISHKIN and ENERGUMENE at Cheltenham and GREANETEEN was well held by SHISHKIN at Kempton over Christmas. Despite that, I think GREANETEEN a sound bet to win this.

Just five go in the Irish Champion Hurdle and HONEYSUCKLE looks set to continue her winning ways. She's unbeaten in thirteen and was a facile winner of the Hatton's Grace on her seasonal re-appearance. She won this by 10 lengths last year albeit on softer ground but this surface shouldn't be a concern and she's impossible to oppose.

Many are saying the opening Supreme Novices Hurdle will be the race of the Cheltenham Festival with the likes of JONBON, CONSTITUTION HILL and DYSART DYNAMO all fancied and SIR GERHARD bids to join them in the Tattersalls. He was an emphatic winner over course and distance at Christmas though for me there's just the suspicion he may be better over further. He's a worthy favourite but THREE STRIPE LIFE, who was second in this equivalent Grade 1 at Christmas, won't be an easy opponent.

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Friday's card at Meydan saw two Group 2 races, one on the dirt and one on the grass.

Round 2 of the Al Maktoum Challenge over 1850m on the dirt saw an emphatic five and a half length win for HOT ROD CHARLIE. Always handy from the three stall, the American galloper powered away from AL NEFUD in the final 300m and the latter was more than seven lengths ahead of the third. Trainer Doug O'Neill claimed HOT ROD CHARLIE was "only 70% fit" - well, he looked fit enough for the locals. He will miss the Saudi Cup a clash with LIFE IS GOOD in favour of the Dubai World Cup itself at the end of next month. Whether REAL WORLD could live with him on the dirt is debatable and it's hard to see any of the other locals being able to mount a challenge but as for other visitors, well, who knows?

The Balanchine is named after the Oaks winner and one of the first UK horses to winter in Dubai before running back in the UK as a 3-y-o. 

Godolphin had six of the ten runners and it was CREATIVE FLAIR who showed some real battling qualities to hold off the late challenge of Cape Verdi winner PEVENSEY BAY who was giving the winner 4 lbs so you could argue there's very little between them. To be fair, CREATIVE FLAIR hadn't run since finishing fourth in the Jockey Club Oaks at Belmont last September but she had been prepared for this and responded well to William Buick's urgings in the final 300m. The second did nothing wrong and their re-match will be fascinating. DUBAI LOVE was fourth in this last year and ran a better race in third.

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