RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
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News this afternoon MOTHER EARTH won't be running in the Golden Eagle - she'll be heading to the Breeders Cup with SANTA BARBARA sidelined due to injury.

ST MARK'S BASILICA was reportedly "sore" after his Irish Champion stakes win and his future remains undecided - there's more than a hint he'll be retired.

Big change in the ground at Newmarket after rain yesterday and overnight, it's gone from Good to Firm to Good to Soft. No more rain is forecast, however, and I suspect the ground will be near perfect for the start of the Cambridgeshire Meeting on Thursday.

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The final declarations are through for Friday's Newmarket card.

The ground has improved slightly to Good to Soft, Good in places. We're into autumn here and even with sunny days the ground won't dry that quickly and the nights are getting chillier with a pronounced dew.

Ten stand in the Rockfel which looks a sub-standard renewal. Top rated is OSCULA, who was made favourite for the Calvados on the back of a Group 3 success at Deauville. However, she was well held in third and you just wonder if she's reached her ceiling. MAJESTIC GLORY is favourite after winning the Sweet Solera but the money has come for the once-raced GIRL ON FILM (Dabirsim - Pretty Paper ex Medaglia D'Oro). Have to say Dabirsim has been an unremarkable stallion in the UK - he stands in France - but she looked very good over 1400m on the July Course on debut and is very much in the "could be anything" file.

JUMBLY (Gleneagles - Thistle Bird ex Selkirk) would be favoured by the ground and is unbeaten in two but I just wonder if she already needs further. HELLO YOU was runner up in the Albany and hasn't really progressed.

Eight go in the Joel over 1600m and the top of the market is dominated by two very different Godolphin types. MASTER OF THE SEAS hasn't been seen since running second in the 2000 Guineas to POETIC FLARE. We can only speculate how we would have fared in races like the St James's Palace, the Sussex and the Marois but if he brings his classic form to this, he should win and win well. He faces a past winner of this race in BENBATL for whom it all went wrong at Goodwood. He missed the break and Oisin Murphy had to use too much petrol getting to the front which left him vulnerable to a late finisher in LAVENDER'S BLUE.

Even if everything goes well, MASTER OF THE SEAS (Dubawi - Firth of Lorne ex Danehill) could still be too good. The ground will need to dry out further for LANEQASH and he's interesting over 1600m though I'm not sure this is the ideal track to be stepping up in trip. SIR BUSKER is rated 114 on the back of his third in the St James's Palace but he's not improved since.

I've backed MASTER OF THE SEAS at 2/1 which I hope is a knocking price for a Guineas runner up in Group 2 company - if he were facing the BENBATL who got close to WINX in a Cox Plate I'd be worried but I'm not convinced BENBATL is quite the horse he was.

 

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Plenty to report on tonight.

First, some sad news - the pelvic injury which rule her out of the Breeders Cup has unfortunately proven fatal to SANTA BARBARA after complications developed this morning. She promised so much and was favourite for both the 1000 Guineas and the Oaks but ironically ran her best races on the firm American turf.

At Newmarket, a drying wind and sunshine led to the ground being called Good to Firm, Good in places for the opening day of the Cambridgeshire meeting.

Saturday's final declarations are through - 13 go in the Cheveley Park, the 1200m championship race for the juvenile fillies. SACRED BRIDGE (Bated Breath - Sacred Shield ex Beat Hollow).is favourite having won all four of her starts including the Group 3 Round Tower last time. She's proven on quick ground but this is Group 1 and she'll have to step up again.

ZAIN CLAUDETTE just beat SANDRINE in the Lowther and the two are certainly are the best of the home contenders. SANDRINE had to carry the 3 lb Group 2 penalty in the Lowther and that probably made the difference. It's a hard call between the two on levels - I just wonder if ZAIN CLAUDETTE could be the greater improver but as I say it's hard to split them. 

Of the others, DESERT DREAMER has been beaten by both SANDRINE and ZAIN CLAUDETTE, FLOTUS won at Listed level last time and the Ballydoyle challenger TEREBERIUM, though unbeaten, hasn't been seen since winning a 1000m at the end of March at Naas on Heavy ground. As she's by Caravaggio out of a Pivotal mare, I do wonder if the ground will be an issue. EVE LODGE won the Sirenia at Kempton last time but that's a Group 3 as well.

It's hard to split the two fancied home fillies but I think it's between them and I incline just to ZAIN CLAUDETTE but only just.

10 go in the Group 1 Middle Park, the equivalent for the colts and this is a strong renewal for the 1200m horses. Unlike the fillies, there's a lot of Group 1 form among these colts. PERFECT POWER won the Morny after an arguably unlucky run in the Richmond at Goodwood. He beat GO BEARS GO in the Norfolk at Ascot and the latter finished third with DR ZEMPF second in the Phoenix and CASTLE STAR fourth. CATURRA beat ARMOR in the Flying Childers over 1000m but even on quick ground I'd have doubts about both being as effective over 1200m.

The Irish all look much of a muchness though DR ZEMPF arguably comes out best but the Morny was a serious race this year and PERFECT POWER (Ardad - Sagely ex Frozen Power) may just be an above-average juvenile. That said, I've backed DR ZEMPF each way at 6s.

The supporting Group 2 Royal Lodge is another race for the juvenile colts this time over 1600m. Acomb winner ROYAL PATRONAGE is top rated but York was favouring the front runners and I'm just not convinced he'll get his own way at Newmarket. MASEKELA ties to the top juvenile form having just been edged out by NATIVE TRAIL in the Superlative before beating Mill Reef winner BAYSIDE BOY last time. That's serious form and you can see why he's favourite. 

The fly in the ointment could be the Godolphin runner COROEBUS (Dubawi - First Victory ex Teofilio) who won a 1600m maiden on the other Newmarket track on debut. That's a maiden which often throws up a decent one and the way he did it put him firmly in the "could be anything" category.

A Godolphin runner who has more than proved himself this year is HURRICANE LANE and trainer Charlie Appleby confirmed this morning the Leger winner heads to the Arc in just eight days. No horse has ever won the Leger and Arc in the same season - not many have tried in all fairness.

TARNAWA remains 5/2 favourite for the European championship 2400m race on October 3rd. ADAYAR is 5/1 and HURRICANE LANE 6s. It seems unlikely MISHRIFF will run but CHRONO GEMESIS from Japan is widely available at 9s.

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It’s a right boil over in the Parisien mud as TORQUATOR TASSO takes the Arc at 80/1 for the first German win since Danedream.

TARNAWA and HURRICANE LANE take the minor places nicely ahead of ADAYAR who went for home and got stuck in the heavy turf.

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It’s complex. German racing had a bit of a slump a few years back but sires like Monsun and Lomitas have proven very successful.

They are strong influences for stamina and love deep ground and conditions like those on Sunday will play to their strengths.

That was proper heavy ground - they ran 9 seconds over Standard and these are the best in Europe.

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Right, back from a fortnight cruising to Iberia and back on 185,000 tons of German engineering - MV Iona - so apologies for missing the key points of the autumn season up here but Mrs Stodge said I needed a holiday so a holiday I've had and I'm now about catching up on what I've missed.

Friday September 24th:

At Newmarket, strong early autumn sunshine left the ground Good to Firm, Good in places.

It was an excellent afternoon for Saeed Bin Suroor, the long serving Godolphin trainer who, to be honest, has been rather in the shadow of Charlie Appleby in the past two or three seasons. BENBATL, who some will remember getting to within a couple of lengths of WINX one day, returned to winning form in the Group 2 Joel over 1600m. Ridden more prominently by Oisin Murphy than had been the case at Goodwood, BENBATL was always holding POGO who ran his best race for a while.

The story of the race was the run of the 2000 Guineas runner up MASTER OF THE SEAS who looked a bit edgy in the paddock after a 147-day layoff. Settled off the pace, he travelled up to the leaders but his momentum was checked at a vital moment and he could never quite get on terms finishing third beaten a length and a quarter. Despite that, it was an encouraging effort after such a long break. He's 10/1 for the Queen Elizabeth II at Ascot next weekend and given he won his maiden on soft he wouldn't be worried about any ease in the ground.

Bin Suroor also won the Listed fillies race with SOFT WHISPER who had not been seen since pulling up lame in the UAE Derby back in late March. She had been an impressive winner of the UAE 1000 Guineas but that was on the Dirt.

The Group 2 Rockfel over 1400m for the juvenile fillies saw MAJESTIC GLORY sent off favourite but she clearly hated the fast ground and HELLO YOU put up her best performance since chasing home SANDRINE in the Albany. I wasn't sure she'd enjoy the ground being a daughter of a Pivotal mare but she ran on too strongly for CACHET and the experienced OSCULA. HELLO YOU will go to America for the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf though whether she'll enjoy the way American races are run I'm less certain.

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Saturday September 25th:

Despite 3mm of overnight irrigation, the ground remained quick at Newmarket for the third and final day of the Cambridgeshire meeting.

The two Group 1 features were for the juveniles and both over 1200m - arguably, both races have lost a part of the lustre they enjoyed in earlier times. The coming of the Commonwealth Cup provides an alternative target for the sprinters and we see more Guineas contenders running over 1600m as juveniles and then not appearing until the classic itself. Some great horses have won both the Cheveley Park (for the fillies) and the Middle Park (for the colts) but I'd argue in the past decade they have started to fall back.

It did look a strong field on paper for the Cheveley Park with the principal British and Irish formlines represented. The former had the Lowther 1-2 in the shape of ZAIN CLAUDETTE and SANDRINE while Irish filly SACRED BRIDGE was unbeaten in four including a convincing win in the Round Tower at The Curragh where she had beaten the colts. On that basis, SACRED BRIDGE went off 13/8 favourite.

Cheveley Park Stakes: 

By his incredible standards, it's been a quiet year on the juvenile front for Aidan O'Brien and Ballydoyle but this was an extraordinary performance by TENEBRISM who hadn't been seen since winning a 1000m maiden at Naas on soft ground at the end of March. She's by Caravaggio (who won the Commonwealth Cup) out of a Pivotal mare so the fact she went so well on the quick ground was a slight surprise. The dam is Immortal Verse who beat Goldikova in the Marois and was third to a certain Frankel in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes in 2011. The fact she went a mile offers some hope TEREBERIUM might get the trip but she's all speed to this observer and the turn of foot she showed up the Newmarket hill off a fair pace was very impressive.

The "lads" will decide where she goes next - America must be tempting. FLOTUS ran a huge race in second and it's quite possible she simply bumped into something a bit special.  She's by Starspangledbanner out of an Invincible Spirit mare so you'd have doubts about her getting much further as well. She's clearly improved past SANDRINE who ran okay in third.

Neither SACRED BRIDGE nor ZAIN CLAUDETTE seemed at ease at any stage but DESERT DREAMER is certainly one to note. She seems to habitually find trouble in races and this was again no exception. She might have been third with a clear run - given her breeding (Oasis Dream out of a Montjeu mare) you'd reckon on her getting 1600m and I like her as an early Guineas prospect. The race was run in 1 minute 11 seconds dead which is a less than a second below standard - the tailwind of Friday had become more of a crosswind.

The Middle Park saw Morny winner PERFECT POWER sent off favourite against the likes of GO BEARS GO, DR ZEMPF and ARMOR as well as ASYMMETRIC.

Middle Park Stakes: 

To be honest, I didn't think PERFECT POWER had any chance at halfway - Soumillon looked to be pushing and scrubbing just to keep up - but he produced a winning run down the far side to prevail close home.

Let's be honest - with the first seven home split by two lengths, you'd have to question the strength of this race. PERFECT POWER is very good but I suspect there are a few better out there. He's by Ardad out of a Frozen Power mare so it's not that clear if he'll get 1600m. Richard Fahey, his trainer, is very good with sprinters and it wouldn't be the biggest surprise if he ended up in the Commonwealth Cup rather than the Guineas. The placed runners such as CASTLE STAR, GO BEARS GO and ARMOR are all closely matched on this summer's form and this is reflected in the ratings. I thought CATURRA ran well in fifth and we know this is one with a lot of speed. The main disappointment for me was DR ZEMPF but he could be one to try over further.

The Royal Lodge is a Group 2 over 1600m for the juvenile colts and MASEKELA and COROEBUS went off joint favourites. The former ran no sort of race but when William Buick went for home on COROEBUS 500m out one or two wondered if he'd gone too early and it turned out to be a tactical blunder as Acomb winner ROYAL PATRONAGE, who had led early but become unbalanced going into the Dip, rallied strongly up the hill and cut down COROEBUS in the final 100m to win a shade cosily. ROYAL PATRONAGE put away some decent sorts in the Acomb and this was another strong performance and given his breeding (Wootton Bassett out of a Dalakhani mare) both the Guineas and Derby look real options.

Meanwhile, at The Curragh, LUXEMBOURG was an emphatic winner of the Group 2 Beresford, a race which the trainer has farmed in recent times and often with some seriously good horses. LUXEMBOURG is 7/4 for the Vertem Futurity at Doncaster and looks a real middle distance prospect for 2022.

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On then to Arc weekend which I'll break into more digestible chunks:

Saturday October 2nd - Longchamp

Day One of the Arc meeting and plenty of rain in the preceding days left the ground in Paris soft. In French terms, typical autumn turf but slow for the British horses in particular.

The curtain raiser for the stellar Sunday card featured two Group 1 races,

The Cadran over 4000m is known as the French Gold Cup and is the premier staying race of the French season. The visitors dominated on form with last year's winner PRINCESS ZOE facing a strong challenge from STRADIVARIUS and TRUESHAN who had scrupulously avoided each other all summer - TRUESHAN winning in the mud at Goodwood while STRADIVARIUS won the Lonsdale and the Doncaster Cup after his disappointing fourth in the Gold Cup.

Prix du Cadran: 

TRUESHAN did this very well and established himself as the top stayer in wet conditions. He's a real credit to Alan King, a trainer much better known for jumpers and you just wonder if they'll fancy putting him over 4800m over hurdles. STRADIVARIUS did nothing wrong and for all he won a Gold Cup in similar conditions in 2019, he's not perhaps that good now and in any case was meeting a real top notch stayer especially under these conditions. The line has always been STRADIVARIUS races on until he stope enjoying it so we might yet see him again as an 8-y-o and it's remarkable that entires such as STRADIVARIUS and BENBATL are still producing quality performances at their time.

BUBBLE START just outstayed SKAZINO to be the first of the locals home. The former won the Gladiateur and is an improving 4-y-o who could well be top of the French staying tree next year and connections may fancy a trip to Ascot. PRINCESS ZOE travelled easily into the race but if anything the ground might have been too lively as it enabled the other stayers to quicken - it's also probably fair to say the Cadran was a stronger race this year.

The other Group 1 was the Royallieu for the fillies over 2800m.

Prix de Royallieu: 

Vintage Frankie Dettori as he made nearly every yard on the Ribblesdale winner LOVING DREAM who bounced back to form after a below par effort in the Yorkshire Oaks. Dettori stacked up the field and then quickened away which you might have thought would have played to the strengths of the French but they all got in each other's way a bit and the main sufferer was VALIA who just couldn't quite get to the first two. 

BELIEVE IN LOVE had run a shocker in the Lillie Langtry at Goodwood but this was a much improved effort and both the first two look decent prospects for next season though obviously they also have huge valuable as broodmares.

JOIE DE SOIR ran okay in fourth but it'll be interesting to see if the front two are given a chance in the Fillies and Mares at Ascot next Saturday.

Three supporting Group 2 races - the Chaudenay over 2800m was a 1-2 for Charlie Appleby and Godolphin as MANOBO retained his unbeaten record defeating Queen's Vase winner KEMARI. The winner beat the future Derby runner up MOJO STAR on debut and has huge potential as a 4-y-o gelding next year in the staying races. The Daniel Wildenstein over 1600m saw another Godolphin win but this time it was the old team of Bin Suroor and Dettori teaming up with REAL WORLD who survived the late challenge of THE REVENANT - the first time blinkers certainly seemed to help the winner and we may yet see him in the Queen Elizabeth II at Ascot next Saturday.

The Dollar over 1950m was another triumph for the visitors with DUBAI HONOUR earning a supplementary entry for the Champion Stakes. He won the Guillaume D'Ornano at Deauville in August and while this was a step forward, I'm to be convinced he will be able to live with the very best. MAGNY COURS chased him home for the locals and with both MEGALLAN and PATRICK SARSFIELD disapponting, it wasn't quite a full scale triumph for the visitors but they walked away with all five Group races with five different British trainers - Appleby, Gosden, King, Bin Suroor and Haggas - all winning races and the Irish and French left on the battlefield. 

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Saturday October 2nd - Newmarket and elsewhere

A wet and miserable afternoon for racegoers in southern England and the Ascot ground was Heavy by the fourth race. HUKUM won the Group 3 over 2400m but with Champions Day a fortnight away, some concern at the punishment taken by the course.

At Redcar, the Windsor Castle winner CHIPOTLE followed up in the 2-y-o Trophy, the course's principal race these days (some may remember the Zetland Gold Cup of blessed memory). Newmarket staged its second successive Saturday card and while it had its own valuable sales race to coincide with the Tattersalls Book 1 viewing, the Group 1 feature was the Sun Chariot for the fillies and mares over the straight 1600m.

Sun Chariot Stakes: 

 It's always good to see the classic form maintained through the season and the first two here were the first two in the 1000 Guineas over the same course and distance back in early May. MOTHER EARTH has gone on to dance most of the top dances winning the Rothschild and being placed in the Pouliches, the Coronation, the Falmouth and the Matron last time.

I thought SAFFRON BEACH had a huge chance in the Oaks but she didn't stay and after flopping in the Falmouth it's been a long road back via a Sandown Listed race but plaudits to her trainer Jane Chapple-Hyam for whom this was an initial Group 1 success.

I believe SAFFRON BEACH will stay in training next year so she's an exciting prospect - as for MOTHER EARTH, I imagine the Breeders Cup will still be an option but she's had a long hard season. Indeed, a one length advantage in May became a three length deficit in October. 

DREAMLOPER ran a huge race in third in front of EPONA PAYS but the 3-y-o fillies have been a very strong cohort this year. The rest were well beaten off with the biggest disappointment SNOW LANTERN who couldn't emulate her mother and finished a tailed off last. Whether that's the last we'll see of her on a racecourse I don't know.

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On then to the climax of the European season at Longchamp (or Paris-Longchamp as it is now known).

With 23mm of overnight rain (the thick end of the inch), the ground was heavy (the Irish would have called it Good to Soft).

Arc Day - Part 1 - the Juvenile Championship races

The Arc day card kicked off with two juvenile championship races before the big one. The first was the Marcel Boussac for the fillies over 1600m.

With RACLETTE a late scratching - she won't run again this season, the market made the Aumale winner FLEUR D'IRIS favourite but she went too hard and the race was set up ideally for ZELLIE, who had finished second in the Aumale but reversed the places in no uncertain terms. AGARTHA went forward as well and paid the price in the final 200m.

OSCULA kept on well enough but was well held by winner ZELLIE and second TIMES SQUARE. The winner is by Wootton Bassett out of a Nathaniel mare so you'd imagine the Pouliches and the Diane would be obvious targets next season. I just wonder if Andre Fabre might be tempted to come to Newmarket in search of some better ground - it wouldn't be the first time and any time he brings one over it has to be taken very seriously.

The colts' championship race was the Jean Luc Lagardere over 1400m. This looked wide open and at one point they were going 9/2 four times at the top of the market which is more what you'd see in a Class 5 handicap at Brighton on a wet Thursday.

Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere: 

A sublime ride from Frankie Dettori who had lost his Arc ride with the late scratching of LOVE - he kept ANGEL BLEU down the inside throughout and was able to cut down pace setter NOBLE TRUTH in the final 300m. The winner hadn't been seen since winning the Vintage at Goodwood at the end of July so this was a well-plotted and excellent training performance. There was talk of a Dewhurst run but he's now 5/1 for the Vertem Futurity - we know ANGEL BLEU goes on slow ground but will be as effective on something quicker? 

NOBLE TRUTH did little wrong though I suspect, given the strength of his juveniles, Charlie Appleby will be fairly relaxed about the run. I was taken by Andre Fabre's ANCIENT ROME who flew home strongly for third. He'd won over 1600m last time and this performance strongly suggested the further the better and he could be a serious middle distance prospect next season. ACCAKABA also ran well in fourth - it's early to draw too many comparisons with the English, Irish and French juveniles but the English seem to be on top with the likes of NATIVE TRAIL (who we'll see in the Dewhurst) perhaps at the top of the tree but as always there's a lot of water to flow under the bridge between now and the classics next spring.

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Arc Day - Part 2 - the other Group 1 races

After the Arc, there were still three Group 1 races. The first was the Opera for the fillies and mares over 2000m.

Prix de L'Opera: 

Apologies for the French commentary - couldn't find the At The Races video so you'll have to make do with Equidia - the French racing channel.

AUDARYA looked to be cantering 400m out but found little for pressure and it probably didn't help she was apart from the others and had nothing with which to race. Frankie Dettori had challenged wider on GRAND GLORY but was denied on the stick by the locally-trained ROUGIR for Maxime Guyon at 23s. She'd run fifth in the Diane and fourth, beaten less than a length behind MOTHER EARTH in the Rothschild. She reversed Diane places with JOAN OF ARC . The outsider EUDALMONIA was third in front of AUDARYA.

I'm not sure this was the strongest renewal of this race but the winner is heading for the Breeders Cup - the breeding (Territories out of a Summer Moon mare) makes me think 2000m would be plenty far enough but she clearly stays it extremely well.

On then to the Abbaye for the sprinters over 1000m. This is a race the British and Irish have often plundered but in SUESA the French had a serious chance of keeping the prize at home.

Prix de L'Abbaye de Longchamp: 

It was almost a daring end-to-end performance by the outsider AIR DE VALSE but he was mugged on the stick by the Irish raider A CASE OF YOU who followed up his second in the Flying Five at Irish Champions Weekend to give Adrian McGuinness his first Group 1 as a trainer and comprehensively reversed places with the winner, ROMANTIC PROPOSAL, who was well held.

The two were five lengths clear of GLASS SLIPPERS who ran okay in third - the far side rail was clearly the place to be and SUESA was trapped out in the middle and that did for her. WINTER POWER bounced off the quick ground at York and this was just too soft for her. The 1000m division remains wide open with the retirement of Battaash but there are some interesting 3-y-o about and it could be the winner and perhaps SUESA will be the key players for a race like the King's Stand. I'd love to see the likes of SUESA and WINTER POWER at Meydan as I think the flat track will be ideal.

Finally, the Foret - Europe's only all-aged Group 1 over 1400m. As always, a very strong field for this race.

Prix de la Foret: 

On a day of great performances, this was for me the best. SPACE BLUES provided some compensation for Charlie Appleby and Godolphin after the Arc and let's face it, he's a class act at this distance. After an arguably unlucky run behind KINROSS (fourth here) in the Lennox at Goodwood, he looked very good at York but there was just a doubt about his ability to handle really soft ground. Well, that was put to bed in no uncertain terms and he's one of the best 1400m horses there's been in Europe in recent years.

The turf sprint at the Saudi Cup meeting (which he won this year) looks tailor made and this 5-y-o entire looks as though he could be around for a while yet.

Let's not forget the runner up, PEARLS GALORE, split NO SPEAK ALEXANDER and MOTHER EARTH in the Matron at Leopardstown so she was no mug. The third, ENTSCHIEDEN,  however is a Group 3 and handicap performer in Japan so make of that what you will. He reversed earlier form with SAGAMIYRA who was arguably a little disappointing in fifth.

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Arc Day - Part 3 - the Arc de Triomphe

The 100th edition of the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe carried a first prize of £2.55 million making it Europe's richest and most prestigious race.

It has a wonderful history and has been won by some of the all-time greats such as Sea Bird II, Mill Reef, Alleged, Dancing Brave, Sea the Stars, Treve, Golden Horn and Enable to name just a few.

It regularly attracts the very best including classic winners and while you could argue the depth among the older horses wasn't quite there, the classic generation was strongly represented with the English Derby and King George winner ADAYAR, the Irish Derby, Grand Prix de Paris and English Leger winner HURRICANE LANE and the English, Irish and Yorkshire Oaks winner SNOWFALL bringing some serious quality. 

The best of the older horses looked to be last year's Vermeille and Breeders Cup Turf winner TARNAWA who had chased home the recently-retired ST MARK'S BASILICA in the Irish Champion while the Japanese champion CHRONO GENESIS added to the international challenge.

Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe: 

As I said at the time, a real boil over and one of the biggest upsets in recent racing history as 2020 German Derby runner-up TORQUATOR TASSO relished the heavy conditions to win by a length and a quarter at 72/1 on the Pari-Mutuel and 80/1 with the British bookmakers.

A fluke? Obviously, the ground conditions played a big part - we know German horses seem to relish heavy conditions more than most European thoroughbreds. As for the form, TORQUATOR TASSO chased home IN SWOOP in the 2020 German Derby and IN SWOOP went on to finish second in last year's Arc. To be fair, ALPINISTA (a  filly trained by Sir Mark Prescott at Newmarket and rated 118) beat him in the Grosser Preis von Berlin after which TORQUATOR TASSO won the Preis von Europa but, snobbery aside, there's a perception German form just doesn't quite cut it at the very highest level in recent times. Danedream of course won the Arc back in the day for Germany.

TARNAWA ran a huge race in defeat - Dermot Weld feared the ground might have gone against her and the Breeders Cup remains firmly on the agenda. 

Charlie Appleby can be justifiably proud of his pair - I didn't think HURRICANE LANE had a good passage in the early and middle stages being constantly shuffled back through midfield. He produced a strong run and was going toe-to-toe with TARNAWA in the final 200m before the winner mugged them both down the outside.

I suspect William Buick knew his fate early on ADAYAR - the horse ran too free in the conditions and ran out of petrol with 300m to go. Appleby suggested after the race both horses would remain in training next season - I'm less convinced - but either (or indeed both) would be exciting prospects for 2022. I'd run ADAYAR at 2000m and keep HURRICANE LANE for the 2400m. It may be both will turn up in next year's renewal but I suspect they won't be the only Appleby runners.

Of the others, Ryan Moore said SNOWFALL ran well enough but it may be she's not quite the force of midsummer and was only beaten less than five lengths by some serious colts and was a length behind the Derby winner.

SEALAWAY won the Lagardere last year and had chased home ST MARK'S BASILICA in the Jockey Club and you could argue on a line through the latter he was entitled to finish upsides TARNAWA. That didn't quite happen but there's plenty of promise for next season.

The likes of ALENQUER and MOJO STAR had their limitations exposed at the highest level while the ground didn't work for CHRONO GENESIS on whom Oisin Murphy tried the wide route down the far side. It didn't work and I'm not sure he stayed the trip.

The race was run in 2 minutes 37.02 seconds which was 9 seconds above Standard suggesting the ground was very soft bordering on heavy - the 2020 time was 2 minutes 39.30 seconds.

 

 

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Hope you've enjoyed my belated review of Arc weekend and I'm conscious I've still got a weekend to cover but it would be remiss of me not to give plenty of time to Champions Day at Ascot on Saturday. The ground is currently Good to Soft on the straight track and Soft, Good to Soft in places on the round course so nowhere near as bad as it been some years and for the time of year not that bad.

The card has four Group 1 and one Group 2 race.

Sprint (1200m):

With STARMAN now retired after having picked up an injury, it's a wide open race with 22 entered at the 5-day stage. ART POWER and DRAGON SYMBOL are currently 7/2 joint favourites with ROHAAN at 9/2. A lot of people took note of MINZAAL's re-appearance second two weeks ago and KINROSS is interesting after his fourth in the Foret.

Fillies & Mares (2400m):

LOVE remains a class act even though she missed the Arc. I thought she had a really hard race in the Prince of Wales and I think that bottomed her and she's not been as good since. The Gosden 3-y-o filly FREE WIND was very good at Doncaster but soft ground is a concern. Aidan O'Brien has put SNOWFALL in but I'd be surprised if she turns up. LA PETITE COCO beat LOVE in the Blandford last time and is clearly improving fast.

Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (1600m):

The race of the day as BAAEED takes on PALACE PIER. This is a mouth watering clash of arguably the top milers of their respective generations. ALCOHOL FREE won the Coronation on the round mile in heavy ground in June but has disappointed since and the Godolphin pair of BENBATL and MASTER OF THE SEAS are serious players. With the likes of Nassau winner LADY BOWTHORPE, past winner THE REVENANT and classic filly MOTHER EARTH also entered, this is a championship race.

Champion Stakes (2000m):

14 entered and some double entries with other races so it's a bit early to be too dogmatic about this. MISHRIFF and ADDEYBB look the standouts - ADDEYBB's Australian exploits will be well known on here. He was second to ST MARK'S BASILICA and ahead of MISHRIFF in the Eclipse but MISHRIFF was brilliant in the Juddmonte. On slow ground, I'm tempted to side with ADDEYBB but it's not easy.

The likes of ADAYAR, SNOWFALL and LOVE have all been entered along with Dollar winner DUBAI HONOUR and Arc fifth SEALAWAY for whom this looks the optimum trip.

The Group 2 is the Stayers race over 3200m and the Cadran first and second, TRUESHAN and STRADIVARIUS, re-oppose but the former was clear best in Paris. The fly in the ointment might be the lightly-raced HAMISH who beat HUKUM on his re-appearance at Kempton and HUKUM trotted up in a Group 3 next time. The Chaudenay winner MANOBO is a fascinating runner and gets 8 lbs from the older horses.

I'll discuss these much more after the final declarations come through on Thursday.

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On to last weekend and the centre piece was Future Champions Meeting at Newmarket.

Friday October 8th: - Newmarket - Future Champions Meeting Day 1

The meeting opened on ground described as Good to Soft, Good in places. To this observer, the track looked quite worn in places which was little surprise given the volume of racing in the preceding weeks.

The feature was the Fillies' Mile for the juveniles - the British equivalent of the Marcel Boussac, I suppose, with elements of the Vertem Futurity thrown in. It's been won by some high class fillies both here and in its previous incarnation at Ascot.

INSPIRAL went in to this a hot favourite having looked very good when winning the May Hill at Doncaster.

Bet 365 Fillies' Mile: 

This was a commanding performance by INSPIRAL who was installed as 5/2 favourite for the 2022 1000 Guineas on the back of this. She's a home bred from Cheveley Park Stud - Frankel - Starscape ex Selkirk. The dam has thrown a couple of decent sorts though she raced at a mile. After the race, trainer John Gosden thought INSPIRAL might get 2000m but no further - she's clearly an exciting prospect though I thought Frankie Dettori had to do a lot to keep her settled and temperament might yet be an issue.

Of the others, I thought MISE EN SCENE ran on well - as she's by Siyouni out of a Galileo mare, she might be the Oaks prospect. Both WILD BEAUTY and CONCERT HALL were arguably a little disappointing as they just couldn't a land a blow on the winner.

The Group 2 was the Challenge over 1400m - you might argue it loses out due to the proximity of the Foret but obviously Paris was never going to be an option for those wanting decent turf. AL SUHAIL did this very well - he's been inconsistent this season but they seem to have found the key with him which is to let him bowl along in front. WITH THANKS continued the strong run of the Haggas yard in second. CHINDIT was top rated but even this ground was probably too slow for him - he really needs firm ground and I think he'd be an ideal type for America. SAFE VOYAGE placed twice in the Foret but arguably he is declining and the fact his only win this year came in Listed grade tells you all you need to know.

Elsewhere, the big news was the suspension of Oisin Murphy. Myrphy failed the on course breath test for riding and was stood down. Needless to say, an apologetic tweet quickly followed but this was his second offence not to mention his drugs issues of last year. He has a lot of friends in the media who go out of their way to give him a positive image but, as happened with Dettori and a few others, the notion professional sportsmen and women need to be "whiter than white" often bumps up against reality. Murphy is no sinner but he's hardly a saint either and he will get a stiff suspension from the BHA when thy get to hear the case. In his absence, William Buick rode a double to cut the gap in the jockeys' title race to nine (the race runs until the end of Champions Day).

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On then to the action from last Saturday and Sunday starting with the climax to Future Champions Weekend at Newmarket.

Saturday October 9th - Newmarket - Future Champions Weekend Day 2

A fine and dry afternoon at Newmarket and the autumn warmth led to the ground being upgraded to Good. The Group 1 feature was the Dewhurst over 1400m, sponsored by Darley. The strong favourite was the Godolphin-owned NATIVE TRAIL, who had carried all before him in three runs including a brilliant seven length demolition job in the Irish equivalent of this race, the National Stakes, at The Curragh.

He fancied a strong home challenge led by Mill Reef winner BAYSIDE BOY and Coventry winner BERKSHIRE SHADOW while the unbeaten Irish colt STRAIGHT ANSWER came with a big reputation after a runaway win in Listed company last time.

Dewhurst Stakes: 

A lot of the analysts were raving about this performance but I wasn't that impressed. He was off the bridle early and didn't look to be going that well at halfway. He didn't seem to quite know what to do with the Dip but to be fair he finished well up the hill and was never in real danger of defeat.

On that performance, I can't have him for the 2000 Guineas next year especially on quicker ground as I think it will all happen too quickly for him. He's by Oasis Dream - he's the first foal of his dam who is an unraced daughter of Quest For Fame so I think he'll certainly get 2000m and for me he's a Derby horse though whether at Epsom or The Curragh I'm less certain. Apparently he already weighs 540kg and I don't doubt he'll grow into his frame rather than grow physically which will help but this wasn't the striking performance I was expecting.

I was more taken by DUBAWI LEGEND, whose colours were lowered by ROYAL PATRONAGE in the Acomb at York and you could argue through the latter there's not a lot between NATIVE TRAIL and his stable mate COROEBUS who had won the earlier Group 3 over 1600m. I think he's more the Guineas horse and 25/1 looks a sporting each way bet at this time. His trainer, Hugo Palmer, won the 2000 Guineas with Galileo Gold back in 2016.

Of the others, BAYSIDE BOY ran well in third and his connections will doubtless also be looking forward to 30th April 2022 and he's also 25/1 ante post. BERKSHIRE SHADOW ran okay in fourth but the Coventry was a long time ago and as is often the case the later-maturing types have improved past the earlier precocious sorts. GO BEARS GO has danced most of the big dances and has done enough while STRAIGHT ANSWER was prominent early but folded tamely to come home last.

As mentioned, COROEBUS is 6/1 for the 2000 Guineas after his win in the Group 3 - his form remains inferior to NATIVE TRAIL for all form lines might argue otherwise but he looks to have the turn of foot and the action to cope with 1600m on quick ground. Appleby scored a treble in the juvenile races by winning the 2000m Listed with apparent second string GOLDSPUR who edged out UNCONQUERABLE and the favourite HAFIT in a thrilling finish.

From the sublime of the juvenile races we then had a 32-runner handicap over 3600m which was run by a horse last seen running second in a 4000m hurdle at Aintree. 

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Saturday is Champions Day and the climax to the British turf flat racing season.

The ground remains Good to Soft, Soft in places which is much better than usual for this meeting. Added spice is provided by the close finish in the jockeys' championship between Oisin Murphy and William Buick. Both are at the twilight meeting at Chelmsford this evening.

As for Saturday, as we know, four Group 1 races and a Group 2 (along with a tricky handicap).

Sprint (1200m):

A maximum field of 20 for this and it looks wide open as you might expect. The 3-y-o DRAGON SYMBOL and ROHAAN were separated by a nose at Haydock in May and there's not going to be much between them again. ART POWER won a Group 3 last time by five lengths at The Curragh but this is a much better race. I often like to look at horses who come to this meeting fresh - some have been on the go since March or April and it takes its toll and this can be one trip too many to the well.

On that basis, MINZAAL looks an ideal type - he was an excellent second on seasonal debut in Group 3 company over this course and distance a fortnight ago. KINROSS comes here after a decent run in the Foret and at 10/1 he's carrying a little of my each way money.

This isn't the strongest race imaginable - on the figures it's really only a Group 2.

Fillies & Mares (2400m):

Just eight go to post and SNOWFALL dominates. She's clear on the ratings and the sixth place in the Arc wasn't a bad effort in the context of what looked a very strong renewal. The question I suppose is how much that would have taken out of her and whether ALBAFLORA, who was four lengths behind her in the Yorkshire Oaks, might be able to get closer. I think it's reasonable to assume she will and I just favour the older filly.

Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (1600m):

10 stand their ground for this and all the good ones are here except the recently-retired POETIC FLARE and the question is whether the new kid on the block BAAEED can upset the old stager PALACE PIER. BAAEED is unbeaten in five and won the Moulin last time - whether that was the strongest renewal of that race I'm not sure. PALACE PIER has won four this year including the Queen Anne and the Lockinge (where he beat subsequent Nassau winner LADY BOWTHORPE). A straight 1600m will hold no fears but he has to give the weight to the young pretender.

THE REVENANT is a past winner of this but might prefer it even softer while ALCOHOL FREE has a serious chance on the basis of her Coronation Stakes win albeit that was on the Round course and she was beaten in the Falmouth on the straight 1600m. True, she beat POETIC FLARE on soft ground in the Sussex but that's an easier 1600m so I'm going with some reluctance to look elsewhere.

On the basis of being fresh, MASTER OF THE SEAS comes right into this - it didn't go well behind BENBATL at Newmarket the other day but he's got a lot of talent though I'm not convinced autumn soft ground will be ideal. MOTHER EARTH ran another huge race in the Sun Chariot but again is she good enough against the boys? 

Last year, on deeper ground, THE REVENANT won this with PALACE PIER, then a 3-y-o, nearly four lengths back in third. I think the result will be very different this time - on this better ground and with a year's physical maturity, PALACE PIER would be my choice to out-gun the younger brigade and confirm his status as the top European miler.

Champion Stakes (2000m):

In recent years, the Queen Elizabeth II has tended to overshadow the Champion but not this time.

This is the 2000m equivalent of the Arc and arguably stronger than both the Juddmonte and the Irish Champion which are the two comparable championship races at this trip.

The lowest rated horse is 111 and we have two rated 127 and one rated 125. Joint top rated are the Juddmonte winner MISHRIFF and the Derby winner ADAYAR. MISHRIFF was brilliant at York but he was beaten by ADAYAR over 2400m in the King George and by ST MARK'S BASILICA over 2000m on slow ground in the Eclipse. On the latter occasion, ADDEYBB finished in front of him and the latter has very strong claims over a trip and on ground which should suit.

I thought after the Arc ADAYAR would come back in trip - he must have had a hard race there and I'm not convinced he'll confirm the form with SEALIWAY who was just behind him in Paris. I think ADDEYBB is a knocking bet at 8s and I'm on each way. Of the others, it's hard to remember BOLSHOI BALLET was once Derby favourite and is now 33s for this. DUBAI HONOUR is improving fast and won the Dollar last time but this is the top table and I'm not convinced.

Long Distance Cup (Group 2) - 3200m

The anomaly of this being a Group 2 remains - I suspect the French will refuse to allow the race to be upgraded for fear of weakening the Cadran. The irony is the first two in Paris re-oppose just 13 days after the slog in 4000m of French mud. TRUESHAN was victorious over STRADIVARIUS that day and I can't see why it should be any different on Saturday. They both hold PRINCESS ZOE who I thought travelled into the Cadran really well but found very little. 

Two years ago, at Newbury, TRUESHAN won a 3200m conditions race overturning the 4/7 favourite - that was HAMISH. The latter has only run twice since - fourth in the 2020 Hardwicke and then coming back to beat HUKUM in the September at Kempton. He comes into this fresh and must have a huge chance against the front two. You could give THE MEDITERRANEAN, the sole 3-y-o, a chance on his Leger third to HURRICANE LANE but last time he was thrashed by SEARCH FOR A SONG and on that basis isn't good enough.

Champions Day Selections:

Long Distance Cup: HAMISH (each way)

Sprint: MINZAAL (each way)

Fillies & Mares: ALBAFLORA

Queen Elizabeth II: PALACE PIER

Champion Stakes: ADDEYBB (each way)

 

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Ground at Ascot has improved to Good to Soft, Good in places which makes me think my wager on ADDEYBB is in trouble and MISHRIFF may well be able to cap off an excellent season.

In the Queen Elizabeth II, the overnight betting has PALACE PIER at 7/4, BAAEED at 9/4 and 15/2 bar the two suggesting it's a two-horse race. In the Champion, it's 15/8 MISHRIFF and 2/1 ADAYAR with 7/1 bar.

SNOWFALL is 4/7 to win the Fillies and Mares. 

In the stayers, TRUESHAN is 7/4 with both HAMISH and STRADIVARIUS at 4s.

 

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Would you "Adam and Eve" it, as we say in my part of the world?

2.5mm of rain at Ascot this morning and the ground has gone back to Good to Soft, Soft in places so the hedge on MISHRIFF might just have made matters worse.

I fear the Gods are conspiring against me today.

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On then to Champions Day and while @Ohokamanhas provided an overview, I'll do the more detailed analysis of the day's main races.

2.5mm of rain left the ground Good to Soft, Soft in places but the view from the jockeys was it was soft autumn ground.

Saturday October 16th - Champions Day - Ascot (Part 1)

The opener was the Long Distance Cup over 3200m which remains a Group 2 officially because it is the newest of the races but more I suspect because the French don't want to see the Cadran challenged as the end-of-season European staying championship race.

Ironically, the first two from the Cadran this year, TRUESHAN and STRADIVARIUS, re-opposed but while PRINCESS ZOE was a late scratching, the likes of BARON SAMEDI and HAMISH threatened to be more than bit players in the next round of the staying dance.

Long Distance Cup: 

A really rough and messy race and it's no secret Frankie Dettori was far from happy with the bunching at the first bend after some 450m. From where I was sitting, I thought Ryan Moore did a lot of the damage when coming over from his wide draw on THE MEDITERRANEAN - Dettori wasn't happy with young Dylan McMonagle on BARON SAMEDI while the main sufferer looked to be BERKSHIRE ROCCO. Hollie Doyle looked for a slot behind the pace before the bend and avoided most of the scrimmaging.

The upshot was STRADIVARIUS found himself well off the pace, just as happened in the Gold Cup, and he was too far back to be able to sustain a challenge.

To be fair, Dettori acknowledged TRUESHAN as the better horse on the day and with the score between them now 3-0, there's little argument the staying division has a new leader. TRUESHAN may be trained by a man better known for handling hurdlers and chasers but he's done a fine job and I'm sure when the ground is soft next season TRUESHAN will continue to be a significant force. TASHKHAN was a stone inferior on the numbers on TRUESHAN but ran a huge race and you'd think with another winter on his back he could be one to give TRUESHAN plenty to think about in soft or heavy ground next year.

STRADIVARIUS isn't the horse he was - I don't think campaigning him for the Arc last year was a good move - but he's had two poor rides from Dettori round Ascot this year. That said, he still won the Lonsdale and the Doncaster Cup and remains a potent force on quicker turf. As has always been the case, he'll race on while he still has some enthusiasm for the game.

Of the others, HAMISH travelled into the race well enough but didn't see out the 3200m on this tacky ground. It'll be interesting to see if this lightly-raced type is tried again at this trip next year - perhaps on better ground and on an easier track - his form is on flat tracks.

The Champions Day Sprint over 1200m was the day's first Group one and it looked wide open in a division short of star quality with the retirement of STARMAN. ART POWER was well fancied along with the 3-y-o DRAGON SYMBOL and ROHAAN.

Champions Day Sprint: 

William Buick got one back on title rival Oisin Murphy to cut the gap to just two with an emphatic win in this open heat. Those with low draws who could race to the far rail had a big advantage. Hollie Doyle made a bold bid to double up from her success on TRUESHAN with GLEN SHIEL, a past winner of this race, but he was run down in the final 200m by CREATIVE FORCE who actually only ran to his mark while some other fancied ones didn't. He had run well over 1400m behind KINROSS at Goodwood and reversed the places but he had been caught out on flatter tracks and faster ground at Haydock and Newmarket respectively.

To be fair, he had started in mid April winning a 1200m handicap off 89 so he's gone up 24 lbs in the season and mixed it at the highest level. He was gelded last winter so there's no reason why he couldn't be back next year though I just have a suspicion 1400m may be more his trip as he gets older.

GLEN SHIEL ran back to his best while my each way fancy, MINZAAL, rewarded investment with a fine third. Oddly enough, I'd like to see him drop back to 1000m as he seems blessed with plenty of speed. ART POWER ran home well for fourth and I think we can upgrade his performance given he was drawn completely on the wrong side so this was a commendable effort.

Frankie Dettori reported KINROSS didn't have a clear run so we can put a line through this run while DRAGON SYMBOL ran too free too early - a sign he had gone over the top for the season and ROHAAN also showed signs of a busy campaign. To be fair, the winner had been busy too so comes out of this with additional credit to see off two lightly-raced older horses.

The sprint division still looks uncertain for next season - there are some nice juveniles who might make up to Commonwealth Cup types but among the older horses it's hard to see an overall leader.

The Fillies & Mares over 2400m saw the return of the triple Oaks winner SNOWFALL after her sixth place in the Arc. On the book, she was well ahead of these but the question was whether the exertions of the campaign had taken their toll.

Fillies & Mares: 

I was kicking myself all the way round the lounge as I had fancied ESHAADA for the Yorkshire Oaks but she's run a shocker - turned out she was in season. Back after a break, and given a superb ride by Jim Crowley, she had too much for ALBAFLORA close home. I suppose the concession of 6 lbs made a big difference but the Ribblesdale runner-up had avoided all the other big autumn races and patience paid off in spades. 

Whether she stays in training or goes to the paddocks I'm uncertain - she's a home bred by Muharrar out of a Nayef mare and with the passing of Sheikh Hamdan and the announcement the Shadwell operation is going to be cut back in Europe and North America it's all very unclear. She was runner up in the Ribblesdsle but has clearly improved since. ALBAFLORA ran a fine race in defeat and her owner-breeder Kirsten Rausing knows the family so well.

SNOWFALL travelled up well enough but just flattened out as she did in the Arc and to an extent the Vermeille - the killer acceleration she showed earlier in the summer has gone or been blunted by the slower autumn turf. Given how the likes of Found and Magical raced on so successfully, I suspect "the lads" may be tempted to keep her in training as a 4-y-o and if she can re-discover her summer form she'll be a serious player in the leading 2400m races.

 

 

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So to the first of the two championship races of the afternoon, the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes over 1600m.

Of the ten runners, eight were Group 1 runners and the field included:

PALACE PIER - winner of the Lockinge, Queen Anne and the Marois this season.

ALCOHOL FREE - winner of the Coronation and the Sussex.

BAAEED - unbeaten in six including the Moulin

MOTHER EARTH - Irish 1000 Guineas and Diane winner

LADY BOWTHORPE - Nassau winner

LORD GLITTERS - past Queen Anne winner and Group 1 winner in Meydan

BENBATL - Group 1 winner in Dubai and runner up in a Cox Plate

THE REVENANT - past Queen Elizabeth II winner 

Arguably, the best race of the year so far in terms of depth and quality. The market though made it a two-horse race between BAAEED at 2/1 ans 9/4 and PALACE PIER, the 6/4 favourite. 

Queen Elizabeth II Stakes: 

These kind of races don't always live up to their billing - one or more of the big players doesn't run their race and it all ends up a bit unsatisfactory.

Not so this time - the front two fought out a sustained battle in the final 300m and the young pretender BAAEED toppled the champion PALACE PIER. In the aftermath, I thought John Gosden was critical of Dettori's ride on PALACE PIER and I can see why - you don't often see Dettori look round three times in a race and I think he has more worried about out-thinking Jim Crowley on BAAEED and less bothered about riding his own race. On a day when it didn't go well for Dettori, this was for me another disappointing effort.

To be fair, BAAEED has been superbly handled by trainer William Haggas who has bided his time, worked through the grades and he has a real star on his hand the news BAAEED stays in training next year is a real boost to the mile division but won't take up the invitation to go for the Breeders Cup. PALACE PIER did nothing wrong and if this is his swansong, he went out on his shield and his record bears the closest of inspection. Needless to say, he'll be an attractive stallion proposition as a son of Kingman.

As we know, BAAEED is by Sea The Stars and is a full to HUKUM but where the latter is stamina, BAAEED is all speed but you'd think he's get 2000m and connections must be tempted to look at races like the Eclipse, Prince of Wales orJuddmonte next year.

LADY BOWTHORPE utilised her stamina close home to finish third and this was her final race and there'll be no shortage of stallions being lined up for her.

THE REVENANT isn't quite the force he was but still ran well in fourth while MOTHER EARTH finished well from a poor position and she's another for whom a step up in trip wouldn't be the worst move. MASTER OF THE SEAS was disappointing while ALCOHOL FREE was short of space but wasn't travelling and BENBATL just isn't the same horse on this slow turf.

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