RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
stodge

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6 hours ago, stodge said:

There was a piece about this in the Racing Post last week.

It's about what are called over here "twilight horses" - these are horses often highly weighted in handicaps but not Pattern class. The average rating of horses sold to Australia is in the 90s so not rubbish - good horses who don't get the opportunities over here and frankly have to run for poor money compared to what's on offer in Australia.

Some end up in Hong Kong or Meydan and the other side of this is the movement of Australasian horses to Hong Kong and Singapore probably for much the same reasons UK horses travel.

Case in point - a Class 3 handicap at Happy Valley has a first prize of £84,500. A Class 2 handicap at Doncaster has £16,500 for the first prize. A Class 1 handicap at Eagle Farm overnight goes for £20,000 (UK). 

https://www.racingpost.com/bloodstock/bloodstock-latest/debate-about-selling-british-and-irish-horses-abroad-is-unnecessary-navel-gazing/509331

The O’Briens have entered a few for the Golden Eagle in October including Mother Earth, Collins Street and Lamorak.

Maximal previously trained by Sir Michael Stoute is also heading down to be trained by John O’Shea for the same race.

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17 hours ago, Ohokaman said:

The O’Briens have entered a few for the Golden Eagle in October including Mother Earth, Collins Street and Lamorak.

Maximal previously trained by Sir Michael Stoute is also heading down to be trained by John O’Shea for the same race.

MOTHER EARTH would be the clear best of the Ballydoyle trio. She goes in the Matron on Saturday which she should win and I can see the attraction of the Golden Eagle over say the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf.

MAXIMAL is no mug - rated 111, he was well beaten by BAAEED in Listed company last time but as we know BAAEED won the Moulin last Sunday. MAXIMAL was five lengths behind POETIC FLARE in the ST James's Palace and you could argue, on a line through ORDER OF AUSTRALIA, the run behind BAAEED was of a similar standard though it didn't seem that way at the time.

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A lot going on in the next four or five days in the UK, Ireland and France,

Tomorrow sees the second day of the Leger meeting at Doncaster. The Group 2 May Hill for the juvenile fillies over 1600m has seven runners. INSPIRAL is 4/11 favourite and she looks a serious prospect. Her win over 1400m in Listed company at Sandown last time was very taking and while SPEAK looked good on debut, that was a routine Kempton maiden. 

INSPIRAL is only 2/1 for the Fillies Mile at the end of the month and if she does it well tomorrow will likely go odds on.

The Park Hill over 2800m for the fillies and mares looks much more interesting. The Gosdens, who saddle INSPIRAL, also provide the likely favourite here in FREE BIRD who did it very well at Deauville last time in the Minerve but I just have a niggling doubt about her on quick ground. She was beaten at Newmarket on quick ground and it can get very fast on the Town Moor. 

GOLDEN PASS beat FREE BIRD at Newmarket but flopped badly behind HUKUM in the Geoffrey Freer and that tempers enthusiasm. YESYES is another for whom the ground is a concern and the same is true of TRIBAL CRAFT. My idea of a winner (or a good each way run with nine in the field) is Jessica Harrington's SILENCE PLEASE.  Being beaten six and a half lengths by TARNAWA may not turn out that bad and I think the combination of the trip and the ground may bring out some further improvement.

On Friday, 11 go in the Group 2 Flying Chllders over 1000m for the speedy juveniles. I'm a big fan of ARMOR and I think 2/1 is a decent price for this type who we know loves the trip and the ground and isn't short of speed. CHIPOTLE will find this much easier than the Nunthorpe and has claims. The filly CORAZON won the Arenberg at Longchamp last time but she's another for whom quick ground might be an issue.

Just seven stand in the Doncaster Cup over 3600m. STRADIVARIUS is 10/11 and came back to form, if not his best, at York last time. I suspect TRUESHAN won't run unless the heavens open and if he defects, it's hard to see any of the others being an issue for the multiple Gold Cup winner.

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On to Sunday and with a final supplementary tomorrow and a final forfeit on Friday, we haven't quite got the final fields for Longchamp.

12 are left in the Vermeille and these are headed by SNOWFALL, who will be ridden again by Frankie Dettori as Ryan Moore will be at The Curragh. The eight 3-y-o get 4.5 kg from the four older fillies - LOVE, ALPINISTA, RAABIHAH and WONDERFUL TONIGHT, all four of whom would, in a normal year, be serious contenders but with SNOWFALL looking dominant at York, she is surely the one to beat.

As I suspected, the Niel has cut up to just seven runners but BOLSHOI BALLET is a fascinating runner. Ten are left in the Foy and SKALLETI looks to have BROOME, the Grand Prix de Saint Cloud winner, as his main rival.

More on these races on Friday evening.

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Saturday's final declarations are through - to be fair, for all these are high quality races, the turnout is a bit weak in some of them.

Starting at Doncaster with the fourth and final day of the Leger meeting.

10 go in the Leger for which HURRICANE LANE is 4/6. I've basically previewed this race and as long as the favourite sees out the extra 400m, he wins. His performances in both the Irish Derby and Grand Prix de Paris were out the top drawer and in another year and with another stable he'd doubtless be heading to Paris but with ADAYAR already booked for the first Sunday in October, Godolphin's embarrassment of riches is Doncaster's gain.

MOJO STAR did finish in front of the favourite at Epsom but disappointed at Goodwood and only won a nothing maiden last time. The Derby run looks an outlier though the extra trip will help. 

Of the others, THE MEDITERRANEAN was seven and a half lengths behind HURRICANE LANE in Paris and while he ran well in the Voltigeur and holds the likes of SIR LUCAN on that, I just can't see any of these Group 3 stayers bothering a genuine Group 1 performer.

OTTOMAN EMPEROR won the Gordon at Goodwood beating SIR LUCAN but that form doesn't look up to Group 1 for all we know the winner certainly stays well. 

The one who could spring a surprise is HIGH DEFINITION. Aidan O'Brien tries cheekpieces and we know this horse takes a long time to get going - he's got a 900m home straight at Doncaster and I think he could be the one chasing down the leaders close home. Once thought good enough to be Derby favourite, I just think he's a bit of a one-paced galloper and 8/1 doesn't really appeal from a punting perspective.

I don't see an angle in the race to be honest - HURRICANE LANE wins if he stays. If he falls in a hole 300m down, either HIGH DEFINITION or THE MEDITERRANEAN might benefit but let's not forget class 2400m performers have won this and I think HURRICANE LANE will prevail.

Just four in the Champagne with NATIVE TRAIL presumably going to Ireland to take on POINT LONSDALE leaving REACH FOR THE MOON against LUSAIL. This is a classic galloper vs speed race and if it gets tactical, LUSAIL wins. If it's an end-to-end gallop REACH FOR THE MOON is the more likely winner.

Six go in the 1400m Park and the top three in the market are closely matched. LANEQASH ran a huge race in the Hungerford and is a worthy favourite. DANYAH is fascinating coming up from some hot handicaps and fully deserves his place while GLORIOUS JOURNEY always runs to a consistent mark but was well held by SPACE BLUES at York last time.

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Over to Leopardstown and the ground has eased slightly to Good, Good to Firm in places for the first day of Champions Weekend. A crowd of 4,000 will be on course and while Irish racing is proclaiming a "sell out", the truth is if you can't get a crowd to a meeting of this quality, you may as well pack up and go home.

Two Group 1 races starting with the Matron for the fillies and mares over 1600m. 13 go but there's not a lot of quality - CHAMPERS ELYSSES looked better last time but the four older fillies look to be up against it. That said, the nine 3-y-o are a mixed bag with the likes of PRETTY GORGEOUS, SHALE and EMPRESS JACQUELINE all Group 1 winners but all have run poorly of late. MOTHER EARTH won the English 1000 Guineas and was placed in the Pouliches, the Coronation and the Falmouth before winning the Rothschild last time at Deauville. It's possibly her misfortune to be in a vintage generation of 3-y-o fillies including the likes of ALCOHOL FREE and SNOW LANTERN but she could get win big in Australia and I think she'll win this.

The Irish Champion over 2000m has in some seasons been the race of the year - the renewal won by ALMANZOR was one of the strongest races I've ever seen. In recent times, the Juddmonte at York has stolen some of its thunder but this year's race, for all it has just four runners, is far from short on quality. PATRICK SARSFIELD is no mug but at 112 he's out of his depth and it's the big three who we need to consider - POETIC FLARE, ST MARK'S BASILICA and TARNAWA.

POETIC FLARE swerved the Moulin for this and it's a fascinating move by Jim Bolger. His last six races have been in Group 1 races over 1600m. On only one occasion has he finished out of the first two and that was behind ST MARK'S BASILICA in the Poulains - he was only beaten two lengths and didn't get the best of runs. He has run second in the Irish 2000 Guineas, the Sussex and the Marois. His two wins were in the English 2000 Guineas and the St James's Palace, both on quick ground and I think this is the key. POETIC FLARE runs to his best on a quick surface and if the rain stays away from Dublin, I think he will take a lot of beating.

ST MARK'S BASILICA is 5 lbs ahead of his rivals on official numbers and has won the Poulains, Jockey Club and the Eclipse so 2000m will be no issue but all these wins were on easy ground as was his Dewhurst win last autumn. I'm not saying he can't handle quick ground but he's yet to prove he is as effective at the highest level and for that reason I oppose him. I also think he will be short of tactical speed over this sharp track.

In an era of superstar mares such as ENABLE and MAGICAL, TARNAWA is emerging as a worthy addition to that pantheon and of course beat MAGICAL in the Breeders Cup Turf last November. She was imperious in the Vermeille and prevailed in a desperate finish to the Opera with ALPINE STAR. Quick ground won't be an issue but this isn't her trip in my view - she should be over 2400m and while it's not for me to argue with Dermot Weld, I think this is the wrong call but had she gone to the Vermeille, she's be up against SNOWFALL and while that would be a race for the ages, it's probably not what's needed three weeks before the Arc.

I'm on POETIC FLARE and have had for me a big bet - everything looks in his favour and there are solid reasons for opposing the other two. The fly in the ointment would be heavy rain which would favour ST MARK'S BASILICA.

Two Group 2 supporting events - the Boomerang over 1600m looks wide open. Irish 2000 Guineas winner MAC SWINEY will relsih the easing in grade after mixing it with the very best. NJORD is probably better at 1400m and MAKER OF KINGS could be on the upgrade. The Juvenile is a Group 2 over 1600m and suffers a little with the National the following day at The Curragh. ABSOLUTE RULER is bred to be a champion (War Front-Together Forever ex Galileo) and looked decent on debut at Dundalk.

 

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2 hours ago, stodge said:

Over to Leopardstown and the ground has eased slightly to Good, Good to Firm in places for the first day of Champions Weekend. A crowd of 4,000 will be on course and while Irish racing is proclaiming a "sell out", the truth is if you can't get a crowd to a meeting of this quality, you may as well pack up and go home.

Two Group 1 races starting with the Matron for the fillies and mares over 1600m. 13 go but there's not a lot of quality - CHAMPERS ELYSSES looked better last time but the four older fillies look to be up against it. That said, the nine 3-y-o are a mixed bag with the likes of PRETTY GORGEOUS, SHALE and EMPRESS JACQUELINE all Group 1 winners but all have run poorly of late. MOTHER EARTH won the English 1000 Guineas and was placed in the Pouliches, the Coronation and the Falmouth before winning the Rothschild last time at Deauville. It's possibly her misfortune to be in a vintage generation of 3-y-o fillies including the likes of ALCOHOL FREE and SNOW LANTERN but she could get win big in Australia and I think she'll win this.

The Irish Champion over 2000m has in some seasons been the race of the year - the renewal won by ALMANZOR was one of the strongest races I've ever seen. In recent times, the Juddmonte at York has stolen some of its thunder but this year's race, for all it has just four runners, is far from short on quality. PATRICK SARSFIELD is no mug but at 112 he's out of his depth and it's the big three who we need to consider - POETIC FLARE, ST MARK'S BASILICA and TARNAWA.

POETIC FLARE swerved the Moulin for this and it's a fascinating move by Jim Bolger. His last six races have been in Group 1 races over 1600m. On only one occasion has he finished out of the first two and that was behind ST MARK'S BASILICA in the Poulains - he was only beaten two lengths and didn't get the best of runs. He has run second in the Irish 2000 Guineas, the Sussex and the Marois. His two wins were in the English 2000 Guineas and the St James's Palace, both on quick ground and I think this is the key. POETIC FLARE runs to his best on a quick surface and if the rain stays away from Dublin, I think he will take a lot of beating.

ST MARK'S BASILICA is 5 lbs ahead of his rivals on official numbers and has won the Poulains, Jockey Club and the Eclipse so 2000m will be no issue but all these wins were on easy ground as was his Dewhurst win last autumn. I'm not saying he can't handle quick ground but he's yet to prove he is as effective at the highest level and for that reason I oppose him. I also think he will be short of tactical speed over this sharp track.

In an era of superstar mares such as ENABLE and MAGICAL, TARNAWA is emerging as a worthy addition to that pantheon and of course beat MAGICAL in the Breeders Cup Turf last November. She was imperious in the Vermeille and prevailed in a desperate finish to the Opera with ALPINE STAR. Quick ground won't be an issue but this isn't her trip in my view - she should be over 2400m and while it's not for me to argue with Dermot Weld, I think this is the wrong call but had she gone to the Vermeille, she's be up against SNOWFALL and while that would be a race for the ages, it's probably not what's needed three weeks before the Arc.

I'm on POETIC FLARE and have had for me a big bet - everything looks in his favour and there are solid reasons for opposing the other two. The fly in the ointment would be heavy rain which would favour ST MARK'S BASILICA.

Two Group 2 supporting events - the Boomerang over 1600m looks wide open. Irish 2000 Guineas winner MAC SWINEY will relsih the easing in grade after mixing it with the very best. NJORD is probably better at 1400m and MAKER OF KINGS could be on the upgrade. The Juvenile is a Group 2 over 1600m and suffers a little with the National the following day at The Curragh. ABSOLUTE RULER is bred to be a champion (War Front-Together Forever ex Galileo) and looked decent on debut at Dundalk.

 

What race is poetic flare racing?!

Thanks for the insight.

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18 hours ago, puntwarriors said:

What race is poetic flare racing?!

Thanks for the insight.

Race 5 tomorrow afternoon at Leopardstown - 2.45pm for us, some ungodly hour of the night for you.

You're welcome to follow me over the cliff - it won't make the landing any easier :)

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The second day of the Doncaster Leger Festival featured two Group 2 races for the fillies and mares.

First was the May Hill over 1600m for the juveniles: 

Impressive performance - I did think the ground was about as quick as she wanted it. PROSPEROUS VOYAGE is rated 97 and has solid Group 3 form but was brushed aside.

INSPIRAL is now 7/1 favourite for the 1000 Guineas and 10/1 for the Oaks. She heads to the Fillies' Mile in four weeks for which she is 5/4 favourite.

She has some growing to do but the paddock watchers were unanimous she'd make a fantastic 3-y-o so another real prospect.

The Park Hill over 2800m saw the Dettori/Gosden combination once again dominating the market with FREE WIND.

Park Hill Stakes: 

This was a demolition job and you won't see many easier winners of a Group 2. FREE WIND romped home by seven lengths and after a modest early they kicked strongly up the straight and the final time was nearly a second below Standard. You might argue on this evidence she wouldn't have been out of place in the Leger tomorrow and on this you'd rate her north of 115.

The plan seems to be the Royallieu over 2450m on Arc weekend followed by the Fillies & Mares on Champions Day. Clearly, she's not short of stamina and I'd love to see her on the Cup trail next year as there's a bit of a vacuum in the staying division which she could fill.

GOLDEN PASS redeemed herself after a poor run in the Geoffrey Freer but she and the others were made to look distinctly second rate.

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On then to Sunday - a huge day with stellar cards at The Curragh and Longchamp.

I'll start in Ireland - day two of Irish Champions Weekend and four Group 1 races at The Curragh where the ground remains on the fast side of Good.

13 go in the Flying Five over 1000m. On the figures, six of these are closely matched but the betting suggests only three matter. WINTER POWER won the Nunthorpe last time and has three at York last season but I think it would be unfair to crab her as a one-track pony. True, she flopped in the King's Stand but that was a race where the trailblazers like her and BATTAASH, went too fast too soon and burnt themselves out after 800m. She was more disciplined in the Nunthorpe and got the result.

She'll be hard to beat but faces two serious rivals - DRAGON SYMBOL has been a wonderfully consistent 3-y-o though I just think an easy 1200m or a stiff 1000m is really his optimum. Whether The Curragh plays to his strengths is debatable but I'm sure he'll go well. GLASS SLIPPERS won this race last year before running a close second in the Abbaye and then winning the Turf Sprint at the Breeders Cup. Her return race against SUESA at Goodwood was decent and I think she could upset the favourite.

8 go in the Moyglare, the championship race for the juvenile fillies over 1400m. The favourite now is CAIRDE GO DEO, who won her maiden over course and distance by four lengths last time. She represents Ger Lyons and Irish champion rider Colin Keane. HOMELESS SONGS beat AGARTHA on debut and could be anything especially as the latter is now rated 109 and won the Debutante last time.

Just seven go in the colts' equivalent, the National, and POINT LONSDALE is 1/2 favourite to preserve his unbeaten record but he faces two smart British rivals. EBRO RIVER won the Phoenix last time but this is his first try at 1400m and there's a suspicion he'd be happier on slower ground. NATIVE TRAIL won the Superlative at Newmarket and I've backed him to turn over the favourite at 6s.

Finally, 14 go in the Irish Leger over 2800m. Unlike its English equivalent, it's open to older horses. TWILIGHT PAYMENT won the Trial three weeks ago and is favourite while Ebor winner SONNYBOYLISTON has claims. However, I've backed BARON SAMEDI - he ran well enough in the Grand Prix de Saint Cloud for all it was only four weeks after a win at Belmont over 3200m.

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Meanwhile, at Longchamp, the ground is officially Good for Arc Trials day.

Whether you should think of the Group 1 Vermeille as a "trial" for the Arc is debatable - it's a serious race in its own right. Just seven line up this year and SNOWFALL dominates. Imperious wins at Epsom, The Curragh and York have made her the standout 3-y-o middle distance filly and while the first two from the Diane, JOAN OF ARC and PHILOMENE, are no mugs it really should be straightforward for SNOWFALL.

Six go in the Niel for the 3-y-o colts. BOLSHOI BALLET was once English Derby favourite having impressed in the Derrinstown. After failing at Epsom, he won the Belmont Derby but was fourth in the Saratoga Derby last time. PRETTY TIGER looks the best of the locals but this is a poor renewal.

The Foy is the equivalent for the older horses. Grand Prix de Saint Cloud winner BROOME is closely matched with WONDERFUL TONIGHT who was no match for SNOWFALL at York and will need rain. The Slovak horse ORPASAN looks outclassed which brings us to SKALLETI who has his first attempt at 2400m. IF he stays it he will likely win and become the main older horse challenger to the 3-y-o for the Arc. 

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20 minutes ago, Mill Reef said:

Do you rate Sunset Shiraz in the fillies juvenile?

Will she be better suited by softer ground should the forecast rain arrive?

The form and the breeding (on the dam's side as well) suggests soft ground would definitely help. Her worst run was at Bellewstown (which is a bit of an odd track) on Good ground.

She was no match for AGARTHA last time and I don't quite see why the places should be reversed but 8s isn't a bad price in a race with no stand out.

Some places have had rain, some haven't - Chester has gone Soft, Bath is still Firm.

Doncaster has gone Good, Good to Soft in places after some showers but both Leopardstown and The Curragh appear to be rain free 

There's no significant rain forecast tomorrow or Sunday. 

SUNSET SHIRAZ isn't for me if the ground stays quick I'm afraid but she looks a nice prospect for next year - the staying influence on the dam's side makes me think 2000-2400m will be her trip.

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Before the weekend's drama takes over, a quick reflection on Friday's action  at Doncaster.

Despite overnight rain, the card started on ground described as Good to Firm, Good in places but a heavy shower immediately after the Doncaster Cup turned the ground to Good, Good to Soft in places. Connections of TRUESHAN must have seethed at the rain not arriving a few hours earlier ad they withdrew the Goodwood Cup winner earlier in the day.

This left STRADIVARIUS a very short priced favourite (around 2/5 and 4/11) to see off five rivals.

Doncaster Cup: 

This was little more than an exercise canter for the multiple Gold Cup winner though only his second win in this race. The 3-y-o filly, ALERTA ROJA, was getting 18 lbs from the winner and you'd think over 3600m that would count for something but she was 25 lbs inferior on the numbers and that was just too much. She'll no doubt be a fine addition to the broodmare collection of Kirsten Rausing.

As for STRADIVARIUS, his enthusiasm for the sport remains seemingly undiminished and the word from Owner Bjorn Nielsen and trainer John Gosden is he stays racing while that is the case. TRUESHAN remains his most potent rival but when and how will the two meet? Nielsen was talking about the Cadran over 4000m at Longchamp and if the ground came up decent in Paris you could see the attraction. The alternative would be the Champions Day Stayers but by mid October the chances of decent ground aren't good - it's also possible we won't see him again this year.

From one extreme to another - the other Group 2 was the Flying Childers over 1000m and this went to CATURRA who was last with 300m to go but found the gaps and just ran down ARMOR in the final 50m to win a neck. The filly CORAZON was stuck in the middle of the track and might have got a bit lonely and was beaten another neck in third. She could go for the Cornwallis at Ascot but the first two both look like sprinting prospects for next season.

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A tremendous Saturday of action in both the UK and Ireland.

I'll start at Doncaster where a 25,000 crowd turned up for Leger day. Overnight rain had turned the ground Good to Soft, Soft in places.

The favourite for the final classic was HURRICANE LANE who, having run third in the English Derby behind ADAYAR and MOJO STAR, won the Irish Derby and the Grand Prix de Paris. On the ratings, he was 6 lbs in front of these and was sent off 4/5 favourite.

St Leger: 

This was a thoroughly dominant performance from a class act. He saw out he trip on the slower ground and it was the only race on the card which returned a time faster than standard - he ran the 2800m in 3 minutes 4 seconds and change - an extraordinary effort. In any other year, he'd be hailed as the champion 3-y-o colt but in a year with ST MARK'S BASILICA (of whom much more in the next contribution) and ADAYAR, he's just on the podium.

MOJO STAR looked superb in the paddock and chased the winner home confirming the strength of the English Derby - arguably the strongest renewal since 2015. You could imagine MOJO STAR in the big staying races next year while I suspect HURRICANE LANE will stay at 2400m.

THE MEDITERRANEAN showed his Voltigeur run to be no fluke while INTERPRETATION couldn't sustain the strong gallop.

HURRICANE LANE is 5/1 for the Arc but the connections also have ADAYAR so will he go as well? I'm not sure the Breeders Cup Turf would be ideal as this horse is a strong galloper and it may be he'll be put away for a serious 4-y-o campaign.

Of the others, the main disappointments were HIGH DEFINITION and OTTOMAN EMPEROR, neither of whom got involved.

Earlier, a small but select field turned up for the Group 2 Champagne Stakes over 1400m for the juveniles.

Champagne Stakes: 

Many had expected Frankie Dettori to steer home the royal runner REACH FOR THE MOON but I suspect having to make his own pace wasn't what Dettori wanted but it's what he must have feared. His colt's strength is his stamina while LUSAIL's strength is his speed. However, LUSAIL looked ill at ease on the ground but that set up REACH FOR THE MOON to be mugged close home by BAYSIDE BOY. I'm not sure talk of "burst bubbles" is quite fair - to me, REACH FOR THE MOON has always looked a Derby rather than a Guineas horse. To be honest, I'm not even sure the Derby he wins next year is at Epsom - he looks tailor made for The Curragh and for the 2022 Leger.

BAYSIDE BOY was having only his third run and his narrow defeat to MASEKELA at Newbury looks better than it seemed at the time and he's now 7/2 for the Dewhurst in a month.

The proximity of the third, TWILIGHT JET, has also raised some questions but he's rated 103 and has mixed it with all the Group 1 juvenile winners including EBRO RIVER and PERFECT POWER so not perhaps as bad as some suggested initially.

In the Group 2 Park, the ground had gone against LANEQASH but up popped GLORIOUS JOURNEY for a convincing win. I'm not sure geldings can run in the Foret but I think he'll be heading to Saudi Arabia for the Turf Sprint at the end of January. 

 

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Leopardstown yesterday staged the first day of Irish Champions Weekend on watered Good ground.

The Champion Stakes looked a serious horse race with the 3-y-o ST MARK'S BASILICA and POETIC FLARE taking on tough mare TARNAWA.

Irish Champion Stakes: 

I backed the third and lost money but what a fantastic horse race. I really thought Kevin Manning had sealed the race 300m down but Ryan Moore got ST MARK'S BASILICA running, albeit not in a straight line and that certainly did TARNAWA no favours. A stewards' inquiry was called but under the Irish rules, Moore had his whip in the correct hand and no interference took place so the result stood. I realis in other jurisdictions ST MARK'S BASILICA would have been disqualified.

I've not seen the sectionals but the last 400m looked incredibly quick and with the time 5.6 seconds above Standard, I suspect they crawled and sprinted home. Given that's how they run in France where ST MARK'S BASILICA had won the Poulains and the Jockey Club, I don't suppose I can be surprised he relished the way the race was run.

Let's not take anything away from the winner - he's added the Eclipse and now the Irish Champion to an impressive roll and he is the dominant force at 2000m. He's 2/1 for the Champion Stakes at Ascot in five weeks and if the ground is easy and assuming the exploits here haven't taken their toll you'd have to fancy him.

TARNAWA ran a huge race in defeat - had Keane challenged inside, would he have won? We'll debate that for a long time but she proved, contrary to what I expected, totally adept at 2000m as she is at 2400m. She's now 3/1 favourite for the Arc and although ADAYAR and SNOWFALL will give her a real race, my fear is this race will have taken the edge off her but we'll see in three weeks.

POETIC FLARE lost second on the post - I'm not sure the race was run to suit him but it enabled him to get the trip. He's in the Queen Elizabeth II on Champions Day. He and TARNAWA should have finished level on the ratings and both were supposedly 5 lbs inferior to ST MARK'S BASILICA. I'd make that more like 1-2 lbs if I'm being honest but to see three 120+ performers put up a race like that was just wonderful.

The other Group 1 on the card was the Matron for the fillies and mares for which English 1000 Guineas winner MOTHER EARTH went off a short priced favourite.

Matron Stakes: 

Not for the first time, it got pretty rough up the short Leopardstown straight and as Shane Foley applied maximum pressure to NO SPEAK ALEXANDER, she hung left and did those on her inside, including MOTHER EARTH, no favours, The stewards took no action but I thought Foley did little to stop his horse hanging and he was arguably lucky to keep it. At 25/1, the only others celebrating were the bookies. PEARLS GALORE had won a couple of Group 3 races so this was a big step forward.

MOTHER EARTH was, I thought, unlucky and I can only imagine how annoyed Ryan Moore was by all that. I certainly wouldn't be put off backing her for an Australian race on this evidence but like all horses, sometimes she needs a little luck in running. EMPRESS JOSEPHINE put up a better effort in fourth.

The combination of trainer Jessica Harrington and jockey Shane Foley followed up in the Group 2 Boomerang Mile with REAL APPEAL just proving too strong for British raider FEV ROVER and Aidan O'Brien's HOROSCOPE. MAC SWINEY weakened tamely in the final 200m but nothing was found in a post-race medical.

The Group 2 Juvenile over 1600m saw another bunch finish with the first five split by a length. ATOMIC JONES kept his unbeaten record and looks a nice prospect just defeating Ryan Moore on STONE AGE and ABSOLUTE RULER who got me my each way money back. 

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Sunday was a really busy day with significant races in both Ireland and France. 

At The Curragh, it was the second and final day of Irish Champions Weekend and the ground remained on the fast side of good.

Four Group 1 events and plenty of shocks and surprises. The Flying Five over 1000m saw WINTER POWER sent off favourite to follow up her Nunthorpe success:

Flying Five: 

The Curragh is much stiffer than York so where WINTER POWER could blitz a sub-57 second 1000m there, it's more like a minute at The Curragh and those three seconds just mean she can't hold on.

I thought GLASS SLIPPERS was going to prevail 200m down and I just wonder if she needed this to bring her to peak for the Abbaye early next month. Nonetheless, she was run down close home by ROMANTIC PRPOSAL and A CASE OF YOU. The two were priced 16/1 and 33/1 respectively and the winner was rated 13 lbs inferior to WINTER POWER so this was a right boil over.

DRAGON SYMBOL never quite got involved but acquitted himself reasonably in fourth - I just wonder if he's done enough for the season.

The one to take out of the race was ROHAAN who once again completely blew the start and was a long way off the others after 200m. The fact he ended up beaten two lengths which was much less than the ground lost at the start makes me think he was the best in the race - I wonder if they'll risk him in the Abbaye where the likelihood of favoured slow ground is offset by the fact the race is only 950m so there's no margin for error from a tardy start.

WINTER POWER finished worse than mid-division and it's clear she will always be worth opposing on anything other than a flat track on fast ground.

The Moyglare is the championship race for the juvenile fillies over 1400m. Debutante winner AGARTHA was well fancied as was the filly who beat her on debut, HOMELESS SONGS.

Moyglare Stud Stakes: 

DISCOVERIES is a full to Alpha Centauri and if she ends up doing what her sister did as a 3-y-o, she's a champion in the making. I suspect the better ground explained the four and a half length turn round in form with the runner up AGARTHA from the Debutante. 

The runner up will always be a force on slow ground while DISCOVERIES will likely want it quick.  To be fair, I thought SUNSET SHIRAZ ran an excellent race on the ground and she's definitely one to note in the middle distance category. I also wouldn't rule out HOMELESS SONGS - this was only her second run and she will have learned a lot from this. The favourite, CAIRDE GO DEO, ran as though there was something not quite right and was eased off close home.

The National is the equivalent to the Moyglare for the colts and the favourite was the unbeaten POINT LONSDALE from the Aidan O'Brien yard but he faced an intriguing challenge from the British raider, NATIVE TRAIL:

National Stakes; 

There was no fluke about this decisive victory for NATIVE TRAIL and he goes to the Dewhurst as the 6/4 favourite and looking to be at the top of the pecking order among the juvenile colts.

Indeed,  his narrow defeat of MASEKELA in the Superlative had been boosted when BAYSIDE BOY, who had just lost out to MASEKELA, turned over REACH FOR THE MOON and LUSAIL.

POINT LONSDALE looks to be screaming out for 1600m already and is a Derby prospect rather than a Guineas horse. Let's not forget EBRO RIVER is also a Group 1 winner and he was beaten four lengths by the winner. I'm not convinced he didn't get the 1400m but he was no match for the winner who is a very interesting prospect. NATIVE TRAIL is by Oasis Drama out of Needleloaf, an unraced mare out of Observatory who died a couple of years back and raced at 1600-2000m. I would think NATIVE TRAIL would get 1600m and 2000m but no further and he's clearly the leading 2000 Guineas horse on this evidence.

Finally, the Melbourne Cup Trial - also known as the Irish St Leger over 2800m.

Irish St Leger: 

Not a dry eye in the house as ex-jockey Johnny Murtagh saddled his first classic winner with Ebor winner SONNYBOYLISTON who battled it out with TWILIGHT PAYMENT down the straight. To be fair, SONNYBOYLISTON is half TWILIGHT PAYMENT's age and I just wonder if that made the difference.

I'm not sure if SONNYBOYLISTON's future lies in Australia but TWILIGHT PAYMENT put up a fine effort and will make a decent attempt to retain his Melbourne Cup. My each way bet on BARON SAMEDI paid back a little in third - I thought he was going well enough 400m down but could never quite get in a challenge. I expect we'll see him in the Cup races next year.

KING OF THE CASTLE ran a huge race in fourth seeing he had been beaten in a handicap last time.  Last year's winner SEARCH FOR A SONG hasn't quite returned to those form levels and was a little disappointing in sixth while MASTER OF REALITY trailed home last.

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Arc Trials day at Longchamp and the racing took place on ground described as Good.

The Group 1 feature was the Vermeille over 2400m for which the English, Irish and Yorkshire Oaks heroine SNOWFALL went off at 1/5.

Prix Vermeille: 

A huge upset as SNOWFALL was turned over by TEONA who won a Listed race at Windsor last time having finished twenty eight lengths behind SNOWFALL at Epsom (the gap had only been four and a half lengths in the Musidora back in May).

So what happened? I've a few thoughts - I wonder if SNOWFALL was a bit short of work - she didn't look unfit by all accounts but perhaps Aidan left her a gallop short. I thought she hung right-handed in the straight - was the ground quick enough for her? I also thought Frankie was very kind when he realised she couldn't get to TEONA and that kindness could be repaid in three weeks if the ground comes up soft. 

The proximity of the pace setter LA JOCONDE suggests it was more like a typical French race than it might have appeared.

The immediate beneficiary is Derby winner ADAYAR who stayed in his box and has seen his price shorten for the Arc. TARNAWA is favourite after her fine run in the Irish Champion.

BOLSHOI BALLET was ruled out of the Niel owing to the gap between his flu vaccinations being too long under French rules. PRETTY TIGER was backed into odds on but he also flopped coming home last behind BUBBLE GIFT. I thought the runner up BABY TIGER ran a reasonable Arc trial.

The Foy saw the Japanese remind us why they are such a force in world racing. DEEP BOND, who was fourth in the Japanese Derby and fifth in the Leger to the champion CONTRAIL, made all to beat the Grand Prix de Saint Cloud winner BROOME a length and a half. SKALLETI failed finishing a well beaten fourth.

Just worth noting the Japanese star CHRONO GENESIS is 12/1 for the Arc and you'd think on decent ground she'd have a real chance.

 

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Over on the Stranglers thread "Whatever Happened To..." @Nerulaasked me to include some more breeding information in my ramblings.

Okay, we'll give it a go but you can always just watch the races and enjoy the quality of the prose which is the Filet Mignon of writing (IMHO).

A bit of fallout from last weekend with an update from Aidan O'Brien. 

LOVE and SNOWFALL, despite both being beaten on Sunday, both head for the Arc on October 3rd. POINT LONSDALE, also beaten at the weekend, is finished for the season while BOLSHOI BALLET and SANTA BARBARA will head back to America. ST MARK'S BASILICA's future is uncertain though reading between the lines, we may have seen the last of him on a racecourse.

After the vicissitudes of last week, a much quieter week in Europe.

The Western Festival starts tomorrow at Ayr while Newbury has its two-day September meeting and on Saturday we have the Group 2 Mill Reef over 1200m for the juvenile colts. 17 have been entered including GUBBASS and DHABAB.

@Nerula mentioned the stallions Belardo, Showcasing and Iffraaj 

BELARDO has two entered at Gowran on Saturday - ELYSIUM, out of Sonning Rose, who won a Group 3 at The Curragh but flopped at Ascot last time and DISCO BOOTS, out of Nightswimmer. She's a modest handicapper and looks out of her depth in his 1900m Listed event.

SHOWCASING has SAM MAXIMUS in the MIll Reef on Saturday - he's out of an Acclamation mare and got to within half a length of the useful LUSAIL at Newmarket. Last couple of runs, including one on Soft, not so inspiring.

IFFRAAJ has the filly OUTSIDE WORLD in a Listed at Ayr on Saturday. She's out of a Clodovil mare and won a Nursery last time at Goodwood so could well have claims in this 1200m event.

 

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Thanks Stodge, we have a lot of shuttle stallions here  and then some like Ifraaj do well down here and never return. Looking back Cape Cross was one notable like that. 

Please dont go to too much effort, ie the starters.

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5 minutes ago, Nerula said:

Thanks Stodge, we have a lot of shuttle stallions here  and then some like Ifraaj do well down here and never return. Looking back Cape Cross was one notable like that. 

Please dont go to too much effort, ie the starters.

Thanks for the feedback.

I will provide the breeding background for the big winners at least but feel free to ask anything and I'll see what I can do especially if any of the sires in which you're interested have representatives in Group 1 races.

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Saturday's final declarations are through and ten go for the Mill Reef at Newbury where the ground remains on the slow side of good.

DHABAB got to within a length and a half of NATIVE TRAIL when third in the Superlative at Newmarket last time and that reads very well in the context of this but he's back 200m and I'm not sure. 

GUBBASS won the valuable sales race over 1000m in July and then ran third in the Richmond at Goodwood and a decent fifth in the Morny at Deauville. This 1200m should suit and he's top rated. FEARBY should go well - I think he didn't enjoy the quick ground at York in the Gimcrack but has sound claims on his Molecomb run behind ARMOR. 

GIS A SUB was second in the Gimcrack - his one blip was on slow ground at Goodwood and if the ground dries further, he's a decent each way play at 13/2. HIERARCHY won his first two but was a shade disappointing when third in the Sirenia on the slow Polytrack - perhaps back on turf with Oisin Murphy on board, he could be a player.

That wonderful old stick DESERT ENCOUNTER at the grand old stage of nine bids to repeat his win in the Canadian International at Woodbine on Saturday evening. He was beaten nearly four lengths last time at Windsor but that was behind TEONA who went on to land the Vermeille last weekend so that may have been a decent run.

 

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A quiet Saturday which we'll come back to you in the next contribution.

Looking ahead and next weekend, Newmarket stages its three day Cambridgeshire meeting - the ground is currently Good to Firm and there's no appreciable rain forecast.

This meeting often sees the appearance of some of the higher quality juveniles especially those with more staying pedigrees who have taken longer to come to hand. Each day there are fascinating maiden races - the opening race of the meeting is a 1600m maiden for the juvenile colts and geldings.  Godolphin have a number entered including newcomers AL HASSABI (Dubawi) and SYMBOL OF LIGHT (Shamardal).

The quality moves up a notch on Friday with two Group 2 races. 16 have been entered in the Rockfel for the juvenile fillies over 1400m. Sweet Solera winner MAJESTIC GLORY (Frankel out of a Dansili mare) is early favourite but my eye is drawn to SENSE OF DUTY (Showcasing - Margaret's Mission ex Shamardal) who hacked up in a maiden last time and could be ready for the step up to Group company. The unbeaten filly JUMBLY (Gleneagles - Thistle Bird ex Selkirk) won well at Kempton and could be anything while JUNCTURE (Dark Angel - Occurrence ex Frankel) was runner up in the Silver Flash at Leopardstown and that looks solid form with AGARTHA going close in the Moyglare.

11 have been entered in the Group 2 Joel over 1600m. It all went wrong for BENBATL at Goodwood but he won this convincingly last year. Godolphin look to have a stranglehold as they've entered MASTER OF THE SEAS who hasn't been seen since finishing runner up in the 2000 Guineas. He's obviously the class act if he turns up but REAL WORLD is also a key contender having moved through handicaps, Listed and a Group 3 last time.

Saturday has the two feature Group 1 races for the juveniles - the Cheveley Park and the Middle Park. Both are over 1200m but with the coming of the Commonwealth Cup, these races are as much of significance for the sprinters as for the classic milers. The unbeaten Irish filly SACRED BRIDGE is narrowly favoured in the ante post exchanges over the closely matched Lowther winner and runner up ZAIN CLAUDETTE and SANDRINE.

Morny winner PERFECT POWER is 2/1 favourite for the Middle Park (24 entries). ARMOR is second best in despite his narrow defeat in the Flying Childers and the Irish have a strong entry headed by DR ZEMPF.

I'll cover these more as the week progresses.

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The Mill Reef at Newbury saw WINGS OF WAR put up a battling performance to run down HIERARCHY in the final 150m.

I got my money back when GIS A SUB was withdrawn having got agitated in the stalls but I'm not sure his antics did GUBBASS and one or two others any favours. The winner had been slightly disappointing when beaten in the Sirenia but this was a much improved effort and while he'll do well to emulate trainer Clive Cox's last Mill Reef winner, HARRY ANGEL, he's got obvious potential as a sprinter for next season.

HIERARCHY is all speed and he and the winner reproduced their Sirenia form almost to the ounce.

DHABAB, on the other hand, looked all at sea over the shorter trip and also looks like a horse whose back end hasn't caught up with his front end physically. He's the one I think from this race who could be a decent 3-y-o over a mile.

A great night for Charlie Appleby in North America - YIBIR won the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont Park and WALTON STREET slammed DESERT ENCOUNTER in the Canadian International.

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