News from the North(ern) Hemisphere

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TARNAWA hacked up by six and a half lengths in the Ballyroan this evening.

Given she was 20 lbs ahead of these on official ratings, this shouldn't come as a huge surprise despite Dermot Weld's caution.

She's in the Yorkshire Oaks for which she's 5/1 joint second favourite with LOVE behind SNOWFALL who is 1/2 favourite and gets 9 lbs from the older fillies and mares.

Covid-related travel restrictions have meant the pool of available jockeys is more limited. The other problem is some of the top jockeys have decided to go elsewhere - the top two riders in the UK jockeys championship, Oisin Murphy and William Buick, are at Newmarket. Frankie Dettori is off to Deauville to ride TWILIGHT GLEAMING for Wesley Ward and Ryan Moore is heading to Saratoga to ride BOLSHOI BALLET in the Saratoga Derby Invitational.

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Love that Deauville course Stodge! Hoping to get  back there next year. Still plenty  of good jockeys to  choose from this weekend. 

Who are your most underrated jockeys?

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20 hours ago, Swoopa said:

Love that Deauville course Stodge! Hoping to get  back there next year. Still plenty  of good jockeys to  choose from this weekend. 

Who are your most underrated jockeys?

Deauville is a gorgeous track and very fair  - it has one big month a year when people from Paris traditionally went to the coast for their holidays (and before the south of France was reachable by train, Normandy was the obvious choice). It's 125 miles from the centre of Paris and the excellent French trains get you there in not much over two hours.

Jockeys? That's a question and a half.

A lot depends on the track - I always follow Richard Kingscote at Chester for example.

The truth is the best jockeys get on the best horses and usually ride the most winners. Only three senior jockeys are currently operating at or above 20% (meaning they ride one winner in every five rides). They are James Doyle (20%), William Buick (21%) and Oisin Murphy (22%). You'll not be surprised to hear Murphy leads Buick by eleven at the top of the championship - Doyle is further back but he's had more than 100 rides fewer than Murphy.

Another thing I like to look at is which jockeys does it pay to back - which return a level stakes profit on their rides. The likes of Dettori, Moore and Spencer often ride horses whose odds are more indicative of the jockey than the horse's actual chance.

The three I've mentioned earlier are all ahead - Buick is £36.93 up for a £1 level stake and Doyle £37.82. 

Of the others showing a profit, the one I'd pick is Hayley Turner (16% strike rate) and £51.50 level stake. I often look at what's she riding in a tricky handicap or if she's riding a 2-y-o for Michael Bell or Andrew Balding. The other stat I'm following at the moment is Jim Crowley is 10 wins from 25 rides for William Haggas which is 40% - they are often Shadwell horses and the odds reflect that but it's the best statistic I'm seeing currently.

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Moving on to the coming weekend up here and tomorrow's racing is dominated by the Shergar Cup at Ascot.

For quality, we have to wait until Sunday and Group 1 races in Ireland, France and Germany.

Nine go in the Phoenix at The Curragh where the ground remains Good though showers are forecast. This 1200m juvenile race is the start of the late summer/autumn series of Irish juvenile races which culminate in the Moyglare and the National on Irish Champions Weekend which is just 5 weeks away.

Favourite is GO BEARS GO who beat CASTLE STAR in the Railway with DR ZEMPF in fourth. I thought he did it well that day and he's an obvious contender. The main British raider is our old mate friend EBRO RIVER who was a close fifth in the Coventry, a decent fourth in the July Stakes and beaten less than a length in the Richmond when also costing me each way money again. He's a useful barometer (as is the favourite) for the relative strength of some key Anglo-Irish juvenile form lines. 

Aidan O'Brien has two including the sole filly PRETTIEST who ran well in the Duchess of Cambridge and on the strength of that went off odds on for the Silver Flash only to finish fourth beaten five lengths. The concensus was she didn't see out the 1400m and the drop back in trip will suit but I thought her Leopardstown run was moderate and I did just wonder if it was a bit quick after the Newmarket exertions.

I'm with the favourite here whose last two runs look the best form on offer.

Off to Deauville and 12 go in the Maurice de Gheest over the unusual trip of 1300m. You don't get many races over this trip in the UK, Ireland or France. 

Five 3-y-o take on seven older horses and this is as usual a fascinating renewal. A dry week has improved the ground to Good and that will be significant for STARMAN, who swerved the heavy ground in the Diamond Jubilee and went straight to the July Cup and did it really well. In most years, he'd be a short priced favourite on that but he faces an intriguing challenge from the American-trained CAMPANELLE with Frankie Dettori riding for Wesley Ward. As a 3-y-o filly, she gets 8 lbs from STARMAN and that's not going to be easy.

CAMPANELLE has course form having won the Morny over 1200m last year and at Ascot, she got the Commonwealth Cup despite finishing behind DRAGON SYMBOL. Now, you could argue STARMAN beat DRAGON SYMBOL a length and a quarter in the July Cup giving him 6 lbs and he now has to give the filly 8 lbs so he's actually a 1 lb better off. I get that but if the rain comes, I'd want to be on CAMPANELLE and if it stays dry, I'd want to be on STARMAN.

The two dominate the race. KINROSS won the Lennox over 1400m at Goodwood the other day and GLEN SHIEL was a fine second in the Diamond Jubilee. Both will appreciate any rain while among the 3-y-o we have LAWS OF INDICES and THUNDER MOON, who were the first two home in the Jean Prat. I think THUNDER MOON may finally be coming to himself after some lacklustre efforts at the highest level over 1600m. MARIANAFOOT has won her last six but on a line through DUHAIL looks held by KINROSS.

The wildcard might be the 3-y-o ROHAAN who, as a gelding, couldn't run in the Diamond Jubilee and didn't like the quick ground at Newmarket when finishing down the field in the July Cup. If the rain arrives, he's another you can put right in the mix. On a line through DRAGON SYMBOL, you could argue he's right up there with CAMPANELLE yet he's 12/1 which will look a very good bet if the ground softens.

Finally, a rare visit to Germany and the racecourse at Hoppegarten in Berlin which stages the Grosser Preis von Berlin. It's a race with a long and chequered history. After World War 2, the course was in East Germany and lay unused for decades. The race went to Dusseldorf and then Hamburg and was only restored to its original name and venue in 2011. It often attracts foreign raiders though the post at £90,000 is pretty derisory. Godolphin run WALTON STREET who hasn't been seen since running fourth to MISHRIFF in the Sheema Classic on World Cup night. On that form, they won't see which way he went - ALPINISTA won the Lancashire Oaks last time and against what doesn't look a strong local challenge, you'd think the British duo might fight out the finish.

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Looking back on the weekend's action in Europe.

Saturday's Shergar Cup was actually quite exciting and the Ladies team won a narrow victory over Ireland and the British team. Nicola Currie won the Silver Saddle.

Three Group 1 races yesterday - starting in France with the Maurice de Gheest at Deauville

Prix Maurice de Gheest:

.Quite a lot to chew over from the 1300m Group 1. MARIANAFOOT was winning his eighth race on the bounce on a journey which began on the adjoining all-weather course at Deauville last December in a small conditions race.

There was no fluke about this and he's clearly in top form - the ground was reasonable (although given as Souple, the French word for Soft, it was in fact rated nearer Good). TROPBEAU returned to form after a period of moderate efforts. STARMAN ran a decent race and established his superiority over the British and Irish horses - he might have benefitted from quicker ground but they took their chance and he ran with credit.

BRANDO is a wonderful old stick who has earned his connections nearly £1.2 million in win and place money and still seems right up for it as a 9-y-o. KINROSS was doing his best work late and really is a 1400m horse as he showed at Goodwood.

ROHAAN and GLEN SHIEL both needed more rain while THUNDER MOON again disappointed.

Biggest disappointment of the race was CAMPANELLE who jumped awkwardly and supposedly the horse's head met with Frankie Dettori's. Whatever the reason, the horse ran herself out and was eased in the final 100m.

Off to Ireland and the Keeneland Phoenix Stakes:

Keeneland Phoenix Stakes: 

A good old portion of egg on face for Mr Stodge as EBRO RIVER won a Group 1 unbacked by the idiot who had lost money on him the last twice. My immediate thought is the English juvenile form looks superior to the Irish at this time as EBRO RIVER was well held by the likes of BERKSHIRE SHADOW and ASYMMETRIC. The placed horses  DR ZEMPF, GO BEARS GO and CASTLE STAR all come out closely matched suggesting GO BEARS GO was a little flattered by his win in the Railway. I thought, on a day which seemed to favour front runners (due to a stroang tailwind), CASTLE STAR ran a blinder having been well back early and he's the one I take from this.

Finally, to a sunny Hoppegarten in the east of Berlin:

Grosser Preis von Berlin: 

An impressive performance by ALPINISTA who was too good for the other British runner WALTON STREET who had set the early numbers but just didn't get home in the final 300m. The second, TORQUATOR TASSO, is clearly best of the locals but he'll have to improve in compete in French let alone English or Irish Group races. Though the ground was officially good, they looked to be making enough of a print and I suspect WALTON STREET wants it quicker.  

ALPINISTA is 12/1 for the Yorkshire Oaks in a fortnight but that's starting to look a very strong race with SNOWFALL, LOVE and WONDERFUL TONIGHT all possible runners.

 

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Another fairly quiet few days in the UK and Ireland.

Saturday's feature, apart from the grey horse race at Newmarket, is the Group 2 Hungerford over 1400m at Newbury. 19 have been entered - SPACE BLUES has been installed as 7/2 favourite following his decent return at Goodwood.

In France, the Deauville meeting gathers pace with the Group 2 Guillaume D'Ornano over 2000m for the 3-y-o on Saturday and the Jacques Le Marois, arguably the highlight of the whole meeting, on Sunday. 19 have been entered for the latter and it looks a stellar entry featuring any number of classic and Group 1 winners.

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Next week sees one of the highlights of the late summer, the York August Meeting.

Four days of top quality racing including the Juddmonte International, the Yorkshire Oaks and the Nunthorpe as the three main Group 1 events and a host of strong supporting races.

The ground is currently Good, Good to Soft in places,

The entries are through for next Wednesday which features the Group 1 Juddmonte International over 2000m which has fair claim to be the best race run anywhere and the Group 2 Great Voltigeur over 2400m which is one of the credential trials for the Leger and other big autumn prozes.

Just nine stand in the Juddmonte and if I tell you a horse rated 114 is the 33/1 outsider, that gives you a hint of the quality.

Six 3-y-o take on just three older horses and it's not surprising given the strength of the classic generation in the recent big all-aged races the younger horses are mostly at the head of the market.

Two of the three older horses are MISHRIFF and LOVE and neither are exactly slow coaches. There's a notion for me both are or would be better at 2400m. They were respectively second and third to Derby winner ADAYAR in the King George - I do suspect LOVE's ideal is a flat track 2400m which Ascot isn't but I do wonder if York may be too sharp for both her and MISHRIFF.

The 3-y-o are headed by race favourite and the winner of the Poulains, the Jockey Club and the Eclipse - ST MARK'S BASILICA. He won the Dewhurst last year for all that form was crabbed a fair bit at the time but he's benefitted from a wet summer as he clearly goes best with a bit of juice in the ground. He's a worthy favourite but is he value at 8/11? I'm not convinced.

The other 3-y-o all come into this with big claims - ALCOHOL FREE won the Sussex at Goodwood last time having won the Coronation at Goodwood and just been touched off in the Falmouth. For me, there's more than a hint 1600m is her trip - they thought as a juvenile she was all speed and weren't sure she'd get the Guineas trip. IF she stays, she looks a knocking bet at 8s but that's the risk. MOHAAFETH's limitations were exposed in Group 2 company over this course and distance last time and a more interesting option is ALENQUER. Let's not forget he beat ADAYAR at Sandown in April and won the King Edward VII at Ascot. He was no match for HURRICANE LANE in the Grand Prix de Paris last time but back in trip he appeals to me as an each way bet at 14s.

I shouldn't forget MAC SWINEY who did beat POETIC FLARE in the Irish 2000 Guineas but looks held on a line through ALCOHOL FREE. JOAN OF ARC won the Diane but was held in the Nassau behind LADY BOWTHORPE and this is a much stronger race and while JUAN ELCANO finished in front of MOHAAFETH last time, that was Group 2 form and this is the top of the tree.

I think ST MARK'S BASILICA is where I'd start looking for a winner but I think ALENQUER each way at 14s is the value IF eight or more run.

The Voltigeur looks fascinating - again, just nine have been entered. Aidan O'Brien has four including HIGH DEFINITION who was once English Derby favourite but flopped badly at The Curragh. KEMARI was a convincing winner of the Queen's Vase at Ascot but this is 400m shorter and may not play to his strengths. SIR LUCAN, THIRD REALM, YOUTH SPIRIT and YIBIR were second, third, fourth and sixth in the Gordon at Goodwood three weeks ago and that doesn't look good enough.  

EHRAZ has been entered in the Group 3 Acomb for the juveniles over 1400m.

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Ten have been entered for Sunday's Jacques le Marois over 1600m at Deauville. 

It's a very strong field for this championship race. POETIC FLARE and MOTHER EARTH won the English 2000 and 1000 Guineas respectively and both have lived up to that level since. MOTHER EARTH won the Rothschild last time while POETIC FLARE only just failed against ALCOHOL FREE in the Sussex.

As for the older horses, PALACE PIER won this last year (ALPINE STAR a close second) and was impressive in the Queen Anne. You'd have to hope he brings his best form after a setback. He can't afford to be anything less on top of his game as he has to give 6 lbs to POETIC FLARE and 10 lbs to MOTHER EARTH. I'm also interested in the 4-y-o filly ALPINE STAR who ran PALACE PIER close last year and was very close to TARNAWA in the Opera. She was beaten on her comeback at York but I think back to a straight 1600m will be ideal for her.

More after the final forfeit tomorrow.

Meanwhile, eight have been left in after the final forfeit for Saturday's Guillaume d'Ornano over 2000m. Diane runner up PHILOMENE is the only filly but she looks to have every chance against the boys.

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I don't normally comment on Group 3 races but there are a couple of interesting races at The Curragh this evening on a card which has been moved from Saturday in order to avoid a clash with the All-Ireland Final at Croke Park.

The Royal Whip over 2000m sees the return, after a 651 day layoff, of INNISFREE who was last seen finishing second to KAMEKO in the 2019 Vertem Futurity. After that. he was fancied for the English Derby but never got there and it'll be interesting to see how much of his 2-y-o ability he still retains. Favourite for the race is Irish Derby fourth EARLSWOOD who comes back 400m in trip. 

The St Leger Trial over 2800m sees a number of the top Irish stayers in competition. TWILIGHT PAYMENT continues the build up to his Melbourne Cup defence but he'll have to run a lot better than in the Gold Cup when he was a long way behind PRINCESS ZOE and EMPEROR OF THE SUN. 

WORDSWORTH was third in the Irish Derby and second in the Grand Prix de Paris though in all fairness well behind HURRICANE LANE. You'd really fancy him on that but he was disappointing in the Gordon at Goodwood and while you could argue the extra 400m will help it will have to. 

PRINCESS ZOE hasn't been seen since Ascot and the yielding ground will help - she's favourite and with the others all having questions to answer, you can see why. They are an inconsistent lot - AMHRANN NA BHFIANN looked very good over this course and distance in the Curragh Cup but was beaten a long way in the Goodwood Cup. EMPEROR OF THE SUN won a Listed earlier in the season but has been well beaten in the Gold Cup and the Goodwood Cup though those are Group 1 races.

At Newbury tomorrow, 11 go in the Group 2 Hungerford over 1400m. It looks open - SPACE BLUES came out this morning - and while Godolphin look to have a strong hand with AL SUHAIL and D'BAI, neither is bomb proof though I prefer the latter who was third in this last year. The likes of DANYAH and MOTAKAYYEL are coming up from handicaps, admittedly good races, but you'd have to wonder if they have the class for this.

I like the filly DREAMLOPER who won the Valiant at Ascot last time and there's an old adage "follow a filly in form" which makes me think she could be improving fast.

Of the youngsters, my eye is drawn on LANEQASH who looked a promising sort on his first two juvenile runs before getting bogged down in the autumn mud in the Horris Hill. The Varian stable is going really well and he could surprise fresh.

The Group 3 Geoffrey Freer over 2600m should go to HUKUM who won well at York last time. His third to WONDERFUL TONIGHT in the Hardwicke looks serious form.

8 stand in Sunday's Jacques Le Marois at Deauville over the straight 1600m. I discussed this at length a couple of days ago - MOTHER EARTH and ALCOHOL FREE have unfortunately been scratched but it still remains a very strong race. PALACE PIER looks the one to beat if fully back to his beat but I think and hope ALPINE STAR will come back to her best and I've backed her each way at 8s as we have what's known up here as the "dead eight" which means place odds down to and including third.

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We have the early entries for the second day at York next week.

The Yorkshire Oaks has attracted ten fillies and mares. SNOWFALL is 1/2 which is hardly surprising after her English and Irish Oaks wins. She now meets the older fillies and mares but gets 9lbs which will be a big help. LOVE and WONDERFUL TONIGHT look her main opponents but I'm interested in Ribblesdale runner up ESCHAADA who is only having her fourth start for a stable in top form.

The Group 2 Lowther for the juvenile fillies has drawn 17 entries. SANDRINE won the Albany and followed up in the Duchess of Cambridge and looks at the top of the pecking order in this division at present. 

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Early entries are through for Friday's York meeting.

The drier spell has seen the ground at the Knavesmire upgraded to Good today.

Friday's Group 1 feature is the Nunthorpe over 1000m for the speedballs.  17 have been entered including a couple of 2-y-o but while CHIPOTLE is interesting, they don't look good enough despite the huge weight concession.

The market is dominated by the 3-y-o with King George winner SUESA at 9/4 and the American trained GOLDEN PAL at 5/2. DRAGON SYMBOL was beaten by SUESA at Goodwood while the ground may not be ideal for ROHAAN. Among the older horses, WINTER POWER beat MOSS GILL in a Listed over the course and distance last month but there's a big difference between that and a Group 1.

12 have been entered for the Group 2 Lonsdale over 3200m. STRADIVARIUS was well beaten in the Gold Cup but this is more his thing and with TRUESHAN doubtful on account of the ground,  old rival SPANISH MISSION could be the biggest threat to the former multiple Gold Cup winner. FUJAIRA PRINCE won the Ebor last year before finishing runner up in the Irish Leger. He had a nice freshener against HUKUM last month and he looks interesting at a bigger price.

The Group 2 Gimcrack over 1200m is the equivalent of the Lowther but for the colts. Molecomb first and second ARMOR and FEARBY look interesting against Coventry winner BERKSHIRE SHADOW and July Stakes winner LUSAIL.

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The final day of York's August meeting next Saturday features the Ebor which carries a £300,000 first prize making it the most valuable handicap in the UK.

In terms of quality, the Group 2 City of York over 1400m is the feature. I've said this before but I do wonder about race planning sometimes - the City of York comes just seven days after the Hungerford, another Group 2 over 1400m. Why these races can't be separated further is a mystery - why they couldn't be combined to form a single 1400m Group 1 which would be run alternately at Newbury and York I don't know.

Anyway, yesterday's Hungerford winner SACRED is 5/1 second favourite though I'd be surprised if he turns out again. SPACE BLUES was a late scratching from the Hungerford and is the 7/4 favourite. He's well ahead of these on ratings but the fascinating runner is July Cup winner STARMAN who was a decent third in the Maurice de Gheest over 1300m last weekend. If they think he'll get the extra 100m he's overpriced at 10s but that's the risk and it may well be they'll keep him for Haydock.

At The Curragh we have two Group 2 races for the juveniles over 1400m - the Debutante for the fillies and the Futurity for the colts. 

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Time to look back on an interesting weekend of action up here.

First stop Friday evening at The Curragh. EARLSWOOD duly won the Group 3 Royal Whip seeing off REVE DE VOL who shaped with a lot of promise and will do better over a bit further. The eyecatcher from the race was INNISFREE, returning off a 651 day break. He finished fifth but was doing his best work close home. He's a full to HIGH DEFINITION but I think he'll get the 2400m and could be a really nice prospect next year.

The winner is no mug - clearly, the 2400m in the Irish Derby was too far. He's 33/1 for the Qipco Champion Stakes in mid October and I suspect that will be flying too high.

The Leger Trial saw a fine return to form for TWILIGHT PAYMENT who didn't see out the 4000m at Ascot. Can he win a second Melbourne Cup? It's a big ask but we know 3200m on quick ground is his optimum - after all the "rule changes", it would be irony incarnate if last year's winner came back and followed up.

PRINCESS ZOE, on the other hand, needs every yard of 2800m and a good bit further. She's in the Ebor but I suspect she'll be kept for some of the big autumn staying races. EMPEROR OF THE SUN ran another decent race without suggesting he's quite up to the top table in the staying division.

Saturday's main British card was at Newbury. HUKUM had a fairly easy win in the Geoffrey Freer over 2600m - talk after was of trips to Canada and America where at least he'll get decent ground. He's not short of tactical speed but winning a Group 3 and mixing it at Group 1 level aren't the same thing. Plenty of analysts were taken with the run of the second, RODRIGO DIAZ, who has been bought by Australian connections. I'm not sure he'll get into the Melbourne Cup field but on this evidence he looks the type to do well in the Antipodes.

The feature was the Group 2 Hungerford over 1400m.

Hungerford Stakes: 

Fans of sectional times will tell you they tell you the story of every race. This is a classic example - NANDO PERRADO went as though being pursued by the Hounds of Hell - he clocked a 10.9 second 200m which you don't normally see in 1400m races. The first two were the last two at halfway.

The race collapsed in front of them and SACRED cut through them like the proverbial knife through butter. It probably made her win look better than it was but let's not forget she won the Nell Gwyn at Newmarket back in the spring. She didn't get home in the 1000 Guineas (as an aside, SANTA BARBARA won her second American Grade 1 on Saturday evening) and connections have been waiting for some decent ground. The talk is of the Breeders Cup Mile which you'd think would be ideal if she can navigate the traffic.

My 25/1 each way bet on LANEQASH looked for a moment to be heading into champagne and caviar territory but ended up in steak and chips land. It was a fine run and I'd be hoping he can build on that later in the season though I'd not be rushing him back after that. NJORD ran a solid race in third while it all happened a bit quick for DREAMLOPER on that ground and back over 1600m, she's got plenty of options.

William Haggas, the Yorkshire-born trainer who has one of the big Newmarket yards, had a fantastic Saturday and apart from SACRED, he had the winner of the Guillaume D'Ornano at Deauville with DUBAI HONOUR who was an impressive winner. He's swept up from a promising fourth in the Britannia and the form of his Newmarket handicap win was boosted by the second, FOXES TALES, winning the Group 3 at Haydock the other day. Nonetheless, this was a big step forward for the winner who is another who has been brought along slowly and carefully and for whom that policy is now paying dividends.

 

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All eyes yesterday on Deauville for the second Sunday of the August Festival meeting and arguably the principal race of the meeting, the Jacques Le Marois, over the straight 1600m.

Prix Jacques Le Marois: 

The first two home are clearly very good. PALACE PIER had to be at his very strongest to give the 3-y-o 6 lbs but he did it to win the Marois for a second year (and there aren't many who have done that). I think it was a shrewd move by Dettori to keep well clear of POETIC FLARE who is not short of courage and was battling back all the way to the line once he eyeballed the winner but Dettori had just poached enough of a lead to prevail.

Let's not forget ORDER OF AUSTRALIA is a Breeders Cup Mile winner and no mug in his own right but he was there to be shot at all the way. I thought MIDTOWN ran a solid race in fourth coming on from his third in the Jean Prat and this was an upgrade. Of the others, ALPINE STAR pulled too hard early but this was still a disappointing effort. CHINDIT ran well in fifth - arguably his best effort since the Greenham. He's not quite made it at the very highest level at 1600m this year.

As for the front two, as said, both are high quality colts who will surely grace the stallion ranks before too long. If you want a battler, POETIC FLARE is the one for you - he's danced all the dances this season. He won the English Guineas and the St James's Palace and has been runner up in the Irish Guineas, the Sussex and now the Marois. It didn't go to win in the Poulains which is his one blot this year. Could he go for the Irish Champion? I'd not be worried about the 2000m at Leopardstown from a stamina point of view and he might have too much tactical speed for the distance specialists. He's also in the Queen Elizabeth II and the Moulin if they decide to keep him at 1600m.

The winner has come back from a setback and he's now won this third Group 1 as a 4-y-o following on from the Lockinge and Queen Anne. We'll never know if he would have beaten ALCOHOL FREE in the Sussex - on a line through POETIC FLARE you'd argue there would be very little between them. On a stiff 1600m, I'd always want to be on PALACE PIER and it's no coincidence his three wins have all been on the straight 1600m which is more of a stamina test. Trainer John Gosden was talking 2000m earlier in the season and the Juddmonte had been mentioned before the setback. Given the likelihood of slow ground for Champions Day, the 7/4 for the Queen Elizabeth (again the straight 1600m) makes more sense than the 7/1 for the Champion Stakes over the 2000m. Whether he'll stay in training as a 5-y-o and be allowed to take his chance in the Eclipse is debatable.

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Huge news this morning just before the final declarations for the opening day of the York Ebor meeting on Wednesday.

Aidan O'Brien reported ST MARK'S BASILICA would miss Wednesday's Juddmonte International having got an infected foot. It appears the horse tore off a show while exercising yesterday and suffered a cut which became infected. Treating the wound with antibiotics of course rules out the horse from running on Wednesday. The plan is to wait for the Irish Champion.

LOVE has been re-routed from the Yorkshire Oaks to the Juddmonte so seven stand for Wednesday's Group 1 worth £567,100 to the winner and by some measures the best race run anywhere in the world. I'm not so sure about that but it's always a very high quality event.

Oddly enough, this year, I'm less convinced - had either or both of the first two in yesterday's Marois been in the field it would certainly have been a very strong race.

Nonetheless, ALENQUER is lowest rated at 110 and all he's done is beat a Derby and King George winner so what would I know?

Three older horses take on four 3-y-o - contrary to recent experience, the older horses (well, two of them) are favoured in the market.

Both MISHRIFF and LOVE are very good - no question - and of course they were second and third in the King George behind ADAYAR. That was over 2400m and both have strong Group 1 winning form at that trip but there's just a hint both might be best at a strongly-run 2000m especially on a flat track.

LOVE won the Prince of Wales in an epic tussle with AUDARYA but I suspect that race bottomed both fillies and neither has run that well since. LOVE was brilliant last year and in another year might have gone to the Arc with a huge chance. That didn't happen and I just think the Prince of Wales, after such a long break, was too hard a race and indeed she is the architect of her own misfortune as she's not one to shy from a fight.

MISHRIFF won the Sheema Classic beating the Japanese Champion CHRONO GENESIS after winning the Saudi Cup. In the Eclipse, a tactical race on rain-softened ground didn't play to his strengths though in ST MARK'S BASILICA he ran into a seriously good one and giving that horse 10 lbs may well turn out to have been an impossible task. Defeat to another classic winning 3-y-o at Ascot was no disgrace and he gave ADAYAR a real fright. Back at this trip on a flat galloping track you'd fancy him to go very well.

So to the 3-y-o and the Marois apart, the younger horses have had the edge in most of the all-aged encounters beyond 1600m. ALCOHOL FREE ran down POETIC FLARE in the Sussex and that was a huge in for her after the Coronation and an unlucky defeat in the Falmouth. This is another test and the big question is will she see out the 2000m? Connections had doubts about the 1600m before Ascot but she splashed through the wet ground really well but this is 400m further against some very good older types. If there were eight runners, 6/1 would look an each way bet to nothing but I'm far from convinced. It's a sporting try and they've little to prove.

Of the others, ALENQUER, as said, beat ADAYAR at Sandown but that was back in April and he was well held in the Grand Prix de Paris. I'm also not convinced this 2000m will be ideal - I think another 400m would help.

The interesting horse at a price is MAC SWINEY who beat POETIC FLARE in the Irish 2000 Guineas. He was then well beaten in both the English and Irish Derbies but back at 2000m he could be the joker in the pack. He'd be my idea of an each way steal at 14s if there was another runner.

I fancy MISHRIFF though I've not played at 5/2 - everything looks in his favour and unless either ALCOHOL FREE or MAC SWINEY find some improvement for the trip (either going up or coming back), he'll do for me in a fascinating if not vintage renewal.

8 stand in the supporting Group 2 Great Voltigeur over 2400m for the 3-y-o. On ratings they are closely matched with seven of the eight between 109 and 113. The highest rated is HIGH DEFINITION but he's on a recovery mission following his Irish Derby flop. KEMARI looked very good at Ascot but that was over 400m further and while that may be fine for Doncaster in a month it might not work so well this week. SIR LUCAN, THIRD REALM, YOUTH SPIRIT and YIBIR were second, third, fourth and sixth in the Gordon at Goodwood which is basically that meeting's equivalent of this race. SIR LUCAN has cheek pieces and Frankie Dettori and both will help but THIRD REALM is interesting back on some better ground.

Five decent juveniles line up in the Group 3 Acomb over 1400m. EHRAZ is a horse I've loved from the start and he re-matches with NOBLE TRUTH who beat him on debut but DUBAWI LEGEND looked a real talent on debut at Doncaster and as the saying goes, could be anything.

[Ohokaman 5,842]

Connections of Sir Dragonet have bought Sir Lucan apparently Stodge. Will go the St Leger on September 11 then onto Melbourne,

The other interesting story down here is the Lloyd Williams owned Cormorant, bought from Coolmore last year, which has been backed from $250 to $21 for the Melbourne Cup, and he is not yet qualified for the race……someone is taking a punt…….

[stodge 1,948]

Thursday's final declarations are through for day two of the York Ebor meeting.

Just seven go in the Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks over 2400m. SNOWFALL is 2/5 to follow up her English and Irish Oaks success and the question is simply whether she's the real deal. She looked very impressive on both occasions but this is a step up - WONDERFUL TONIGHT is a serious opponent and would be more so on slow turf but conditions won't be ideal and she has to give 9 lbs to a dual classic winner.

I'm more interested in Ribblesdale winner LOVING DREAMS and runner up ESHAADA and especially the latter who I think could give the favourite a real race. Strictly on a line through DIVINELY, both have lengths to find but ESHAADA could be improving fast on what would be only her fourth outing.

SNOWFALL should win this easily and if she's the champion some think 2/5 will be a steal. I'm more sceptical simply because of the quality of what she's beaten and the circumstances.

Eleven go in the Group 2 Lowther for the juvenile fillies over 1200m. SANDRINE is 6/4 favourite - she is unbeaten after wins in the Albany and Duchess of Cambridge but has to carry the 3 lb penalty. Despite that, you'd be hard pushed to see DESERT DREAMER and HELLO YOU reverse places and a bigger threat might be Princess Margaret winner ZAIN CLAUDETTE. 

[stodge 1,948]

Friday's final declarations are through and 15 stand for the Group 1 Nunthorpe over 1000m.

Although sprinters aren't everyone's cup of tea, this is one of the two Group 1 races over the trip in the UK (the King's Stand at Ascot is the other) and is always won by a decent animal.

Current favourite is the American sprinter GOLDEN PAL at 5/2. Anything trained by Wesley Ward and ridden by Frankie Dettori over 1000m has to be afforded the utmost respect and famously the combination almost landed this with Lady Aurelia a few years back. He just failed to win the Norfolk as a juvenile but returned with an impressive win at Saratoga. Like most American horses, he jumps and runs and on a flat track like York on decent ground he'll take some catching.

SUESA was impressive when winning the King George at Goodwood - she's clearly a very fast filly. She was well beaten on the heavy in the Commonwealth Cup when she did too much and couldn't get home. This big field should be a help in that regard but traffic trouble is a worry though I know connections have long stated she's better on a quicker surface but whether she can handle the speedy American colt I'm not certain.

In a vintage crop of 3-y-o sprinters from America and France, DRAGON SYMBOL is arguably the best of the British. He was first past the post in the Commonwealth Cup only to be demoted in the stewards' room. He was then second to STARMAN in the July Cup but was decisively beaten by SUESA at Goodwood and I just think a stiffer 1000m will suit. WINTER POWER has solid course and distance form but was found out at Group 1 level in the King's Stand.

ARECIBO is well held on Goodwood form and while ROHAAN has some serious form it's all on a soft surface which he won't get.

It's boring to back the favourite (again) but GOLDEN PAL ticks all the boxes for me.

11 stand in the Group 2 Gimcrack over 1200m for the colts. This looks a decent renewal with Coventry winner BERKSHIRE SHADOW back in trip after defeat over 1400m on soft ground at Goodwood. He's a speedy type but he faces LUSAIL who won the July Stakes at Newmarket and this is an intriguing clash. It's possible however FEARBY could beat them both - he was very impressive in a Listed at Sandown and while he was well held by ARMOR last time, the ground was slow and the winner is highly thought of by the Hannon stable.

VINTAGE CLARETS was third to BERKSHIRE SHADOW in the Coventry and the race didn't go to plan in the Super Sprint at Newbury last time.

BERKSHIRE SHADOW is the one for me.

I wouldn't normally discuss a Listed race but the Lonsdale is the staying race of the meeting. Just five go for the 3200m trip 

It's a quality winner with Goodwood Cup winner TRUESHAN up against Gold Cup third and fourth SPANISH MISSION and STRADIVARIUS. The latter has a solid record round York and many will fancy him to return to winning ways. It's going to be a fascinating tactical race - TRUESHAN has a 3 lb penalty for the Group 1 success but the ground will be plenty quick enough for this proven mudlark. STRADIVARIUS was behind SPANISH MISSION in the Gold Cup and the latter looked good over the 2800m when beating SANTIAGO in the Yorkshire Cup.

I think SPANISH MISSION is a sporting suggestion against the front two in the market.

[Tauhei Notts 1,413]

Stodge; comments on Ehraz please.  I thought he would have been better than what I saw this morning (NZ time).

Love has lost her nick name, "Tough Love".  A good third, but not up to what I saw at Ascot.  Comments, please.

[stodge 1,948]

17 hours ago, Tauhei Notts said:

Stodge; comments on Ehraz please.  I thought he would have been better than what I saw this morning (NZ time).

Love has lost her nick name, "Tough Love".  A good third, but not up to what I saw at Ascot.  Comments, please.

The Acomb was a strange race and the first two home were the two biggest priced in the betting. The favourite, DUBAWI LEGEND, who was further weighed down by my cash, couldn't handle the winner either. ROYAL PATRONAGE made every yard and has strong stamina in the breeding - he was given a superb ride and it may just be a stayer beat three non-stayers in a truly-run race.

EHRAZ is bred more to be a sprinter and I expect him back at 1200m next time.

As for the Juddmonte, I'll comment more in the review later but MISHRIFF put up a dominant display. I've said on here before I thought LOVE had a very hard race in the Prince of Wales on her return and I think that has bottomed her and she may need another period off the track and a quieter start next year. That said, even if she had been at her best, I don't think she'd have contained MISHRIFF.

SNOWFALL duly bolted up this afternoon and on this evidence it's going to take a good one to beat her in Paris.

[stodge 1,948]

Looking ahead to a busy weekend up here and on Saturday we've a lot of racing and plenty of quality albeit with no Group 1 races.

9 go in the Group 2 City of York over 1400m, the quality race on the final day of action on the Knavesmire. SPACE BLUES is 6/4 favourite after his hugely encouraging return in the Lennox at Goodwood and we know he's a real specialist at this trip. He may have it on to give 8 lbs to the 3-y-o filly PRIMO BACIO who last ran in the Rothschild and before that the Falmouth. She wasn't beaten far in either race - the drop back to 1400m is interesting but she was finishing well at Newmarket and I'm not entirely convinced this flat 1400m will play to her strengths.

I can't have SAFE VOYAGE on this quicker ground but GLORIOUS JOURNEY is very interesting, He's a past winner of the Hungerford at Newbury and won the Criterion at Newmarket before being outpaced in the July Cup. This is his trip and ground and 10s looks a knocking each way price. SIR BUSKER is another serious contender but he's another for whom I think this may be a tad sharp for all his third in the Queen Anne reads very well in this company.

Two Group 2 Juvenile races at The Curragh on Saturday evening - the Debutante over 1400m for the fillies has eight runners. AGARTHA won the Silver Flash last time and sets a reasonable standard but I suspect CONCERT HALL may be on the upgrade and it's fascinating to see Ryan Moore coming over for the ride. Just six go in the Futurity over 1400m for the colts. POINT LONSDALE is 2/7 for this and it's not hard to see why on the back of his wins in the Chesham and the Tyros and the latter was little more than a canter. This will be more of a test but if he wins this well the autumn Group 1 races will be on the agenda.

In France, Deauville race on Saturday this week with two Group 2 races - the Calvados is for the juvenile fillies over 1400m (basically the French equivalent of the Debutante). OSCULA won a Group 3 for freshman trainer George Boughey last time on slower ground but FAST SMILE won a Kempton maiden on debut by six lengths and could be anything. 10 go in the Nonette for the 3-y-o fillies over 2000m. ZEYAADAH flopped in the English Oaks but ran a huge race when chasing home LADY BOWTHORPE in the Nassau last time - Group 1 form in a Group 2 race is always worth noting.

Sunday's Deauville meeting has two Group 1 races - the Morny and the Jean Romanet - and I'll talk more about those tomorrow.

[stodge 1,948]

The first day of the York Ebor meeting took place on ground described as Good. A fine afternoon and a light breeze brought a large crowd back to the meeting for the first time in two years.

The feature of the first day and arguably the whole meeting was the Juddmonte International over 2000m which, since its inception in 1972, has become one of the world's leading races at the distance - perhaps the British version of the Cox Plate might be giving the Moonee Valley race too much regard. Just seven went to post and perhaps not quite the quality of some years but still a highly respectable turnout for a race worth £567,100 to the winner.

Juddmonte International: 

This was a hugely impressive performance by MISHRIFF who put six lengths between himself and a class field. This was a brutal pace of a race as they quickened all the way down the straight returning a time of 2 minutes 5.92 seconds for the 2000m, nearly two and half seconds below the standard.

MISHRIFF has now won Group 1 races in France, Dubai, Saudi Arabia and the UK - it sounded in the post race interviews as though we won't see him after the end of the season and he has obvious appeal as a stallion. It seems unlikely he'll go to the Irish Champion and the Breeders Cup Turf followed by the Japan Cup look the options. We know he can deal with a flat 2400m - the stiff 2400m at Ascot found him out but time may tell he had plenty on giving 11 lbs to a Derby winner. Either way, his status as one of the best if not the best 2000m horses in the world is secure.

ALENQUER hit a flat spot but ran home well for a moderate second. You could argue on a line through ALENQUER, MISHRIFF would have beaten ADAYAR over 2000m and it's hard not to agree on this evidence. ALENQUER will probably step back up to 2400m. LOVE was disappointing - I remain convinced the Prince of Wales bottomed her and she should have a decent break.

Of the others, ALCOHOL FREE looked a but light and fizzy in the paddock and simply didn't get home - it was a sporting try and back at 1600m after a break she'll no doubt be a big player in the top races. MOHAAFETH came to challenge but the run fizzled out and for all he was won at 2000m in the past, his trainer William Haggas has always thought he had plenty of tactical speed. I think he could give the likes of PALACE PIER and ALCOHOL FREE plenty to think about later in the season on decent ground.

Charlie Appleby and Godolphin have a strong hand of 3-y-o with ADAYAR and HURRICANE LANE, who has been installed as 5/4 favourite for the Leger after Appleby confirmed the horse's next objective but the Group 2 Voltigeur went to YIBIR whose morning efforts have not matched to afternoon reality. On the gallops, he's a champion but it's not often happened on the track despite the removal of the wedding tackle. He did this well for all as a gelding he cannot run in the Leger. He will be about next season and you can see him running in those top races for which he would be eligible. 

THE MEDITERRANEAN set the pace and ran on well to hold second while THIRD SPIRIT and SIR LUCAN reprised their Gordon Stakes form from Goodwood and to be honest SIR LUCAN travelled into the race well but found little in the final 300m.

HIGH DEFINITION disappointed badly again - I'd love to see him tried over staying distances next year - as did KEMARI who ran very flat.

The Group 3 Acomb produced a right boil over with ROYAL PATRONAGE making every yard at 25/1. Again, this showed York to be a quick flat track and I think the likes of EHRAZ and DUBAWI LEGEND, for all they looked impressive in maiden company at this trip, were found out by the stronger gallop at this level and perhaps their futures will be back at 1200m. The winner could be a Derby horse for next year.

[Ohokaman 5,842]

Snowfall very impressive in the Oaks…..

 

[stodge 1,948]

Looking ahead to Sunday and an excellent card at Deauville featuring two Group 1 races and a pair of strong supporting Group 2 events.

14 stand in what looks a hugely competitive Morny over 1200m. It's the first juvenile Group 1 of the European season and not surprisingly quite a few of the key formlines clash in what should be an informative race.

Nine colts take on five fillies and there is a very strong British and Irish challenge. The first three from the Richmond at Goodwood re-oppose and that was a real bunch finish. ASYMMETRIC prevailed but KHUNAN and GUBBASS were less than half a length down and fifth placed PERFECT POWER was only a length further back. ARMOR was impressive in the Molecomb over 1000m and the question is whether he can translate that speed over an extra 200m. 

HAVE A GOOD DAY looks the best of the locals after her win in the Cabourg over course and distance at the start of the meeting. Joseph O'Brien saddles Airlie Stud winner VELOCIDAD and she's got a big chance as well. She'd be my idea of the winner against ARMOR but this is one of those races which will tell us a lot.

The Jean Romanet over 2000m for the fillies and mares is the French equivalent of the Nassau at Goodwood and LADY BOWTHORPE bids to follow up her win on the Sussex Downs. She's got to do without her regular stalls handler and we saw with CAMPANELLE how the absence of familiarity can cause problems. AUDARYA was a disappointing fifth that day and I fear, like LOVE, that brutal battle in the Prince of Wales has bottomed her for now.

THUNDERING NIGHTS won the Pretty Polly at The Curragh last time and beat SANTA BARBARA who has set America on fire winning two Grade 1 races. I'm a big fan of EBAIYRA and she only just failed against BROOME in the Grand Prix de Paris last time. Back to 2000m, I think she's the one to beat but this is a very good race.

EBAIYRA beat RAABIHAH earlier in the season and the latter runs in the Group 2 Pomone over 2400m. It's not quite the Deauville version of the Vermeille though a useful winner will likely end up at Longchamp in three weeks. We forget RAABIHAH was runner up in last year's Vermeille before running a decent fifth in the Arc and this is her first run since back at the 2400m trip. MYSTERY ANGEL was a respectable second to SNOWFALL at Epsom but hasn't really advertised the form since (unlike the winner).

VALIA will find this plenty short enough and my eye is drawn to JOIE DE SOIR, a lightly raced filly from the Fabre stable who won the Listed Grand Prix de Clairefontaine last time. It's a big step up in grade but she's the unexposed one in this field.

Finally, just six go in the 3000m Kergorlay. RIP VAN LIPS was tailed off in the Ascot Gold Cup last time and faces SKAZINO who won the Vicomtesse Vigier two starts back. This doesn't look a strong renewal and SKAZINO will do for me.

[Tauhei Notts 1,413]

Note how the Brains' Trust at Jackson Street, Petone take betting on a hurdle race from Newton Abbott, but not on the Ebor Handicap at York.

It is worry for our racing when our wagering monopoly shows such a piss poor knowledge of what is likely to attract a bet.