RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
stodge

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Tomorrow is the fourth day at Punchestown and the focus is switching to the hurdlers.

The feature is the Punchestown Champion Hurdle and as you might expect it's a re-run of the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham. The first four, HONEYSUCKLE, SHARJAH, EPATANTE and ASPIRE TOWER re-oppose. HONEYSUCKLE was a decisive winner at Prestbury Park and it's hard to see why it should be different this time. ABRACADABRAS fell early on but returned with a fine win over 4000m at Aintree - I'm just not convinced the 3200m quite works for him at the very highest level.

GOSHEN looked good at Wincanton but threw in another shocker in the Champion and he's just not reliable.

The 4000m Novice championship hurdle features another convincing Cheltenham winner in BOB OLINGER who slammed GALLIARD DU MESNIL seven and a half lengths in the Ballymore. BOB OLINGER was dominant that day and I can't oppose him if he's at or near that form level tomorrow.

As there's a lot else going on this weekend, I'll cover off the fifth and final day now. The Mares Champion Hurdle over 4000m is headed by CONCERTISTA who was a rare Irish favourite to fail at Cheltenham being just touched off by BLACK TEARS in the equivalent race. He faces another Cheltenham winner in BURNING VICTORY but if you're puzzled, don't be. BURNING VICTORY won the 2020 Triumph and hasn't been seen since - an absence of 414 days. That would put me off but she's trained by Willie Mullins but who knows? It throws a very large variable in the works to say the least. 

Indeed, Mullins sets us a bit of a poser by also running Fairyhouse winner STORMY IRELAND.

The Champion 4-y-o Hurdle over 3200m sees Triumph Hurdle winner QUILLIXIOS re-match with third placed HAUT EN COULEURS and fourth place ZANAHIYR. The former was only having his second run at Cheltenham and I think is a sporting bet to take on the favourite.

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On then to the serious business that is Guineas weekend at Newmarket.

The ground remains Good to Firm despite rain yesterday and 15 have been declared for the 2000 Guineas.

In many years, there's a dominant horse or two at the top of the market but not this year. With ST MARK'S BASILICA scratched, Dewhurst runner up WEMBLEY is 7/2 favourite with the third THUNDER MOON at 4/1 second best.

Most years, the Dewhurst is the credential trial for the Guineas and the form is solid but last year the ground for the Dewhurst was Soft and Saturday's race will be run on a much faster surface. WEMBLEY was coming home well at the end of the 1400m but I just think he might be better over further. THUNDER MOON beat him on good ground in the National at The Curragh and I think he will do so again on this sound surface.

MUTASAABEQ is third best in at 6/1 but he only won a maiden three weeks ago and I can't see him being good enough at this stage. Frankie Dettori has come in for the ride on the apparent O'Brien second string, BATTLEGROUND, and I well remember his impressive performance at Goodwood last summer. He ended up second in the Juvenile Turf at the Breeders Cup so he's a serious contender - I just recall his only disappointing effort was on debut on quick ground at the undulating Naas. He's not for me.

MASTER OF THE SEAS was two lengths behind THUNDER MOON in the National but he won the Craven well enough. Buick has taken the ride which is indicative of the seriousness of this horse's claims but I'm reminded of Masar who also won the Craven but was only third in the Guineas. ONE RULER was runner up in the Futurity on bottomless ground at Doncaster having previously won the Guineas course and distance in a Group 2. His two runs on quicker ground were at Sandown where they gallop uphill - I'm not convinced he will be as happy galloping downhill on the quick turf.

VAN GOGH was second to ONE RULER in the Group 2 at Newmarket and went on to win the Criterium International on bottomless ground - again, I'm not convinced the quick ground will help.

CHINDIT will love the ground and did it well at Newbury but his trainer has publicly expressed concerns over the undulations. POETIC FLARE is another for whom I have ground concerns.

That brings me to my idea of the winner - or at least one to run well at a big price - LUCKY VEGA. He's shown form on quick ground and I remember a convincing win in the Phoenix Stakes. He was a close up and as I recall slightly unlucky fifth in the National before dropping back 200m to run a close second in the Middle Park. I just think on the quick ground he'll have more speed than some of these and at 20/1 I'm on for a fiver each way.

THUNDER MOON is my choice of the winner among the better fancied runners.

Just five go in the supporting Group 2 Jockey Club Stakes over 2400m. PYLEDRIVER is favourite but faces 2019 Leger runner up SIR RON PRIESTLEY who missed all last year but returned with a nice win at Nottingham - I'm not convinced this is his trip and he would prefer further.

Worth mentioning there are a couple of Group 2 races at Saint Cloud on Saturday. The Greffulhe is a recognised Jockey Club trail but could be a springboard for any French contender thinking of running at Epsom. The Muguet is also over 2050m but for the older horses, THE REVENANT was beaten on seasonal debut four weeks ago in the Edmond Blanc and he re-opposes the two who beat him that day, WALLY and DUHAIL and I quite like the latter.

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On then to Sunday and 1000 Guineas day at Newmarket.

Just 12 line up in the first fillies' classic and the betting is dominated by SANTA BARBARA who is 5/4 favourite. This is extraordinary for a filly who has won one race, albeit impressively. The price collapsed following some positive comments pre-season from Aidan O'Brien and if one of the Ballydoyle handler's wins the 2000 Guineas, I suspect the price will shorten further.

SANTA BARBARA is by Camelot out of a Danehill mare and she is a half to Breeders Cup Mile winner ORDER OF AUSTRALIA (you can guess the sire) and IRIDESSA and both of those were very decent. The second in her maiden, KAILASH, hasn't really progressed and won a Cork maiden the other day. 

The truth is the price is primarily a reflection of Aidan's comments - now, let's be fair, she COULD be anything and by Sunday at 4pm, 5/4 might look the steal of the century. The ground will, I think, be plenty quick enough and it's just hard to visualise a filly on just her second outing being up to a classic against some hardened opponents.

She's not for me at 5/4 so what's the alternative? SACRED beat SAFFRON BEACH in the Nell Gwyn three weeks ago and some observers thought the second would be a lot closer over 200m further. I do agree SAFFRON BEACH is an Oaks prospect but on this quick ground I think SACRED may still come out on top. ALCOHOL FREE scrambled home in the Fred Darling - the extra 200m looks an issue to this observer and the trainer is more hopeful than confident. 

With PRETTY GORGEOUS a late scratching, MOTHER EARTH looks the second string of the Irish challenge but she ran a decent second in the Juvenile Fillies Turf at the Breeders Cup and won't lack for courage. STATEMENT chased home ALCOHOL FREE at Newbury but her pedigree screams slow ground and I can't have her on this quick spring turf.

The one I like is SACRED - the trip is the gamble here but there's plenty of stamina on the dam's side and she has form on quick ground. 

The supporting Group 2 is another for the Fillies and Mares - the Dahlia (and what a star she was back in the day) over 1800m. It's a weak renewal with the highest rated just 107 and that's the favourite, QUEEN POWER. She was runner up in this last year and ran a fine fourth in the Nassau at Goodwood and that would be good enough here. I'm put off by her subsequent third at Salisbury on firm turf so some rain would help. LAVENDER'S BLUE beat FOORAAT in a Listed at Kempton last time and the fact they are second and third favourite shows what a poor race this is.

Seven go in the Ganay at Longchamp over 2050m. They've had more rain in France and the ground is just on the soft side of good. MOGUL is favourite and that's no surprise - last year he won the Grand Prix de Paris and the Hong Kong Vase and ran some fine races in defeat. They've always thought of him as a 2400m type at Ballydoyle and I'm not convinced this shorter trip will help. MAGNY COURS was a fine third in the Dubai World Cup and he's no mug on turf while four of the field were behind the absent SKALLETI in the Harcourt which is the usual trial for this. I like ECRIVAIN of those but MAGNY COURS would be my pick.

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Catching up on more of the midweek action and Wednesday's opening Flat card at Ascot was as always of interest.

Two Group 3 events at the contrasting distances of 3200m and 1200m. The Sagaro for the stayers saw the return of the multiple Gold Cup winner STRADIVARIUS and the old boy (well, he's a 7-y-o stallion) did it well coming from off the pace under a well judged Dettori ride to lead with 300m to go and he was always holding the challenges of OCEAN WIND and NAYEF ROAD - I though the latter did plenty up front with STAG HORN, who led to the home turn and faded to finish fourth.

I've no doubt the first three will lock horns again in June over an additional 800m which you'd think would play to the strengths of the winner but he's the target for the younger stayers these days and we'll see.

The 1200m Pavilion saw the return of Middle Park winner SUPREMACY for whom this was a prep run for the Commonwealth Cup. He had to carry a 4 lb penalty for the Group 1 against a fair field of young sprinters but he was disappointing finding little for pressure and coming home last of the eight behinf shock 22/1 winner ROHAAN who had been kept busy through the winter in handicaps and had run okay when fifth at Newmarket a fortnight ago. The runner up SAINT LAWRENCE ran well but I suspect the real Commonwealth Cup clues will be among those who don't quite get home in the two classics at Newmarket this weekend.

Meanwhile, yesterday was the third day of the Punchestown Festival and the two Grade 1 races finished up, as might be expected, in the Willie Mullins yard as he dominates this meeting (not for the first time). However, the stayers hurdle produced for many a real upset (though not reflected in the betting market) with KLASSICAL DREAM returning from a 487-day lay off to collect the prize. To be fair, he was cantering over these for most of the way and he was hugely impressive and on this evidence he goes right to the top of the staying hurdle ranks. Let's not forget he was a decent horse not so long ago - he won the 2019 Supreme Novices at Cheltenham and followed up at that year's Punchestown meeting.

Great things were expected the following year - there was talk of a tilt at the Champion Hurdle - but he was beaten in the Morgiana when long odds-on and was badly beaten in the Christmas Hurdle trailing home last. It's been a long road back but the genius of Willie Mullins was evident in this horse's authoritative win. You could argue the race fell apart - BEACON EDGE was going well enough when falling two out and FLOORING PORTER was never happy on the ground, which had dried to Good to Yielding, and was eventually pulled up lame. Those caveats notwithstanding, this was a performance full of promise and he's still a 7-y-o so the best may be yet to come.

The same may also be true of ENERGUMEME who dotted up in the 3200m novice chase. He had little to beat but this was an exercise canter and not much more. The clash with SHISHKIN may not happen until next spring but it's already got the jump pundits excited.

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The first day of the Guineas meeting at Newmarket took place on a dry, cool and windy afternoon.

The ground was Good to Firm (watered) and the breeze was behind a slightly across the runners down the Rowley Mile.

The feature was the 2000 Guineas and ten years on from Frankel, this year's renewal was one of the most open for years. At one point the bookies were going 5/1 the field but a late surge of money (including a £50,000 each way bet) saw BATTLEGROUND emerge as 9/2 favourite.

If you've not seen the race:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Tmcp4xEmyw

NAVAL CROWN set a strong gallop but the time was an unremarkable 1:35.69 which, on quick ground with a slight tail wind, wasn't extraordinary.

The action unfolded to the far side and the first three home were drawn 4,2 and 3. Those drawn high such as BATTLEGROUND (15) were on the wrong side of the race completely and it may be they are better than that but the truth is the O'Brien runners were eclipsed with WEMBLEY and VAN GOGH flopping as did THUNDER MOON from Joseph O'Brien's team.

I thought the mid-race move from MASTER OF THE SEAS might have been decisive and it was impressive to watch the horse scythe through the field suggesting he's not short of speed but up the hill POETIC FLARE was always holding him suggesting perhaps the second didn't quite see it out. LUCKY VEGA rewarded my each way faith with a fine run in third - I never though he'd win but he saw the trip out really well and The Curragh would be an obvious place for him to go next. 

The three were nicely clear of the rest and one or two reputations were blown apart.

POETIC FLARE looks set to run in the St James's Palace for which he is 7/2 rather than the Irish Guineas.

I'm struggling to see any Derby clues from the race. 

On the undercard, SIR RON PRIESTLEY made every yard to win the Jockey Club Stakes. PYLEDRIVER travelled up well enough but, as in the Leger last year, he wandered under pressure and is stating to look a little unreliable.

In a sprint division which is looking very weak currently, a strong performance by the 4-y-o LAZULI in winning the Group 3 over 1000m. Whether that's good enough to win a King's Stand - well, in a normal year, you'd say not but with BATTAASH side lined, there's no star among the speedballs and it may be an opportunity for a 3-y-o sprinter to dominate later on.

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On 5/1/2021 at 9:40 PM, Tauhei Notts said:

Hey Stodge, thank you for pointing me the way of Lucky Vega.  A great each way bet.

Thank you, my friend. I was on at 20s and he returned 12s so I can't quibble. 

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After the excitement of Guineas weekend, attention turns to the unique turns of Chester (to be fair, Taupo makes Chester look like a galloping track) and its 3-day May meeting.

It's not a meeting high on quality though the races are usually exciting. There's a sprinkling of Group 3 races and on the opening day we have the Vase, an established Derby Trial over 2400m. The race has a strong rollcall of past winners and the winner of the 2019 renewal was none other than SIR DRAGONET, who has of course gone on to win a Cox Plate and a Tancred.

The favourite is SIR LAMORAK from the Aidan O'Brien stable who dotted up in a Leopardstown handicap three weeks ago - this is a step forward from that but he looked to have plenty of improvement in him that day. WIRKO won the Blue Riband Trial at Epsom but that isn't the race it was.

The other features in the week are the Group 3 Ormonde on Thursday and the Group 2 Huxley on Friday.

Looking ahead to next Saturday, Epsom Derby favourite HIGH DEFINITION is set to run at Lingfield over 2350m - a big win there and he'll likely be a very short price.

Of more significance is French Guineas weekend at Longchamp but we'll pick up on that later in the week.

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More catching up to do from Saturday in the UK and Ireland.

Plenty of comment after the Listed 2000m race for the 3-y-o which saw MOHAAFETH absolutely bolt up by five lengths. In truth, he was never out of a canter and visually it looked hugely impressive and he was immediately brought in to the Derby market at 10s.

A little perspective - he won a 2000m handicap at the mid April meeting off 85 and followed up here off 92 so he needs to find, I'd have thought, another 20 lbs to be a Derby contender. He's by Frankel and is the second foal of a Sea The Stars mare called French Dressing who was trained by John Gosden. She ran twice and won both including a listed at York back in 2015. Stamina's not going to be an issue but whether he has the nous to use the term for a track like Epsom and an occasion like the Derby remains to be seen.

Saturday was the final day at Punchestown and the Willie Mullins bandwagon rolled on with STORMY IRELAND winning the Mares Champion Hurdle over 4000m. She made every yard and was very impressive - whether they'll put her over a fence next season I don't know but she looked to really enjoy the quicker turf whereas her stable mate and favourite, CONCERTISTA,  never looked as comfortable and the distress signals were already evident when she bungled the third last and she came home a well beaten third.

The final Grade 1 of the meeting, the Juvenile Champion Hurdle over 3200m, saw JEFF KIDDER continue the upward curve that has taken him from the juvenile handicap at Cheltenham through a Grade 2 at Fairyhouse to a Grade 1 success and there's no fluke. Perhaps it's just the better spring ground but his rating has gone from 125 to 137 and possibly into the mid-140s which puts him in the Champion Hurdle leagues. That's early days and it's notoriously tough for second season hurdlers to mix it in open company. 

That said, he was perhaps fortunate as ZANAHIYR was arguably unlucky being checked after two out and on the home turn. He lost by three quarters of a length and I'm minded to the view he'd have won with a clear run. This was a much better effort after a lacklustre performance at Cheltenham. I thought HAUT EN COULEURS was going to win approaching the second last but he found little for pressure - I certainly wouldn't write him off and with a summer on his back he could be the one to take it of this for next season. QUILLIXIOS ran a stinker to be honest - he was going well enough but stopped very quickly and was eased off.

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On then to Sunday and the second day of the Guineas meeting at Newmarket. The ground remained Good to Firm with a strengthening wind through the afternoon.

The second classic, the 1000 Guineas, looked to revolve around SANTA BARBARA, the subject of glowing reports from Ballydoyle, but in the end she was easy enough to back on the day ending up joint favourite at 5/2 with ALCOHOL FREE:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y3OffWW0YDE

There's an old saying - "there's no point getting older if you're not getting wiser" - and after 54-year-old Kevin Manning won the colts' classic, it was the evergreen 50 year old Frankie Dettori on supposedly the Coolmore second string, MOTHER EARTH, who showed the other girls the way home. It was clear on Saturday the quickest ground was just off the far rail and Dettori emulated William Buick on Saturday by getting his horse to quicken down into the dip and use the momentum to "slingshot" up the final hill. That manoeuvre doesn't always work - it didn't work for Buick though not by much -  but Dettori knows every blade of grass on that heath and timed his move a fraction later than Buick and that won him the race.

SAFFRON BEACH ran a huge Oaks trial in second and the outsider, FEV ROVER, ran a blinder in third having been with the pace all the way for northern trainer Richard Fahey.

The joint favourites finished fourth and fifth and ran contrasting races - SANTA BARBARA was never far off the pace but hung left, either through inexperience or perhaps because she was finding the ground plenty firm enough, and ended up beaten a length and a quarter in fourth. It was still a fine effort considering it was only her second run and if she goes on to Epsom, she'll prove a worthy opponent for SAFFRON BEACH and the others.

ALCOHOL FREE, rather like BATTLEGROUND on Saturday, ended up on the wrong side of the race and had to do a lot to get involved. I think a track like Goodwood or perhaps the July Course will play more to her strengths. SACRED travelled well until running out of petrol with 100m to go. She looks an ideal for the Jersey at Ascot. STATEMENT, who had run second to ALCOHOL FREE at Newbury, was well supported in the market but in the end was well held.

MOTHER EARTH was having her ninth run and let's not forget she was second in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. She looks versatile in terms of ground and Dettori though she would get 2000m. She's by Zoffany out of a Green Desert mare so I'm less convinced and certainly don't see her as an English or Irish Oaks type though the Diane is an option.

She's 10/1 for Epsom with SANTA BARBARA at 5/2 and SAFFRON BEACH at 8/1.

Elsewhere on a card biased towards the ladies, the Group 2 Dahlia 

Yesterday also saw the first French Group 1 of the season, the Ganay, over 2050m at Longchamp and with no Skalleti in the field, Harcourt runner up MARE AUSTRALIS made every yard and in the end wasn't too pushed to hold off GOLD TRIP and MOGUL. I suspect the Arc is the long term aim for this son of Australia out of a Rainbow Quest mare and though he'snot got many miles on the clock he's going the right way. I wonder if Fabre will put him in a race like the Grand Prix de Saint Cloud. GOLD TRIP is a solid yardstick and ran well enough - I thought MOGUL was a little flat footed when the pace quickened - we know this in French races where they dawdle and then sprint. That's fine if you've tactical speed at 2050m but if you're a 2400m you can be caught out and that'spretty much what happened to MOGUL. I hope races like the Coronation Cup or the King George are on his agenda this year.

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Day Two at Chester and the  Group 3 Ormonde Stakes over 2600m has JAPAN installed as 11/8 favourite.

The ground on the Roodee has eased to Good to Soft following plenty of rain yesterday and this morning and that would have to be a concern as JAPAN's best form is on top of the ground. On his third to Ghaiyyath in last year's Eclipse he's home in this company but his subsequent runs were uninspiring albeit at the highest level.

He's actually joint top-rated with TRUESHAN who put up a stunning performance to win the Long Distance Cup on Champions Day romping home by seven lengths. The ground was soft that day and you'd just wonder if this turning tight track would be ideal.

MORANDO could be the option against them both - to be fair, they both beat him at various times last year but we know MORANDO loves this trip and this ground and in 2019 he won this race slamming none other than Kew Gardens by eight lengths. It's an ask two years on but he looks an each way bet to nothing at 11/2.

The Dee Stakes is only Listed class but has some pretensions as a Derby trial. ONTARIO ended his 2-y-o campaign finishing eight lengths behind POETIC FLARE in the Killavullan and that looks better now than it did and while he was only third to TACTICAL in the Free Handicap last time, I think this track and ground will help him but he faces a serious Godolphin opponent in YIBIR who was a close third in the Classic Trial at Sandown. I don't think this one would want the ground to go too soft.

At Lingfield, the ground has eased to Good for their Derby and Oaks Trials on Saturday and HIGH DEFINITION has been confirmed for the Derby Trial.

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I'll catch up on Day One of Chester in time but some are getting excited about the Cheshire Oaks winner - well, maybe.

Friday is the final day of the meeting and with the ground deteriorating to Good to Soft, Soft in places after showers , the 3650m Chester Cup (basically three times round the track) is going to be a test but in terms of quality, the Group 2 Huxley us the feature for the older horses over 2050m.

Just five go to post and favourite is SANGARIUS, a horse of talent, no question, but he's coming back from a five month layoff and a second wind op. He won the Hampton Court at Ascot in 2019 and while no match for LORD NORTH in the Brigadier Gerard last year, he returned to beat BANGKOK in a listed at Lingfield just before Christmas. 

BANGKOK re-opposes but the main threat looks to be ARMORY who was last seen chasing home SIR DRAGONET in the Cox Plate. Before that, he was an unconsidered 66/1 shot when running a fine third to MAGICAL in the Irish Champion when he finished a place in front of the Arc winner SOTTSASS so on this you'd have to take him to win this.

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I thought an expensive Galileo horse like Pleasant Man could surprise in the Chester Vase, but he is another paper tiger.  On paper he is a champion, but unfortunately for him the races are run on grass, not paper.

Then I stayed up to watch Lake Takapuna nearly win at a steeplechase at Kelso.  An unusual name for a Scottish jumper.  I suppose Lake Pupuke would have been too hard for the English commentators to manage.

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18 hours ago, Tauhei Notts said:

I thought an expensive Galileo horse like Pleasant Man could surprise in the Chester Vase, but he is another paper tiger.  On paper he is a champion, but unfortunately for him the races are run on grass, not paper.

Then I stayed up to watch Lake Takapuna nearly win at a steeplechase at Kelso.  An unusual name for a Scottish jumper.  I suppose Lake Pupuke would have been too hard for the English commentators to manage.

Yes, PLEASANT MAN may not be the best in the yard - the maiden he won on debut at Haydock was probably not the best either. He's the dam's second foal - the first has run 14 times in Japan without troubling the judge.

Staying up until 2.30am to watch a steeplechase at Kelso - we've all done it. Seriously, I'm delighted a little bit of UK racing gets shown in NZ. We are having earlier starts - 1pm at some meetings so that would be midnight with you.

LAKE TAKAPUNA has been around a while - he was once trained by the great Dermot Weld. He's a full to a horse called DROP THE ANCHOR who was seventh in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham and might make a nice chaser next season.

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One of these days I'll get round to Chester but the action comes up quick at this time of year and the final decs are through for Saturday.

Seven meetings in the UK but quantity well ahead of quality if truth be told. Ascot's card isn't that strong so it's off to Lingfield for their biggest turf flat day of the year. 

The ground is Good ahead of a card that features Derby and Oaks Trials as well as a Group 3. For those who don't know, Lingfield has some resemblances to Epsom inasmuch as there is a significant run downhill before a left-hand turn into the straight which isn't far removed from Tattenham Corner. The Lingfield straight is much less complicated than Epsom with nomadverse camber or similar and the climb in the early part of the 2350m is nothing like that at Epsom.

The race has had spells of popularity and some very good winners but went through a dip in the 2000s and 2010s until ANTHONY VAN DYCK won in 2019. Last year, ENGLISH KING was an impressive winner and went to Epsom as favourite but was disappointing.

The huge news today was the withdrawal of HIGH DEFINITION - he's in both the Derby Trial at Leopardstown on Sunday and the Dante at York next week. That leaves seven runners and it doesn't look a strong renewal. Aidan O'Brien runs KYPRIOS and CARLISLE BAY (the latter ridden by Frankie Dettori who abandons his beloved Ascot which is, I think, noteworthy). Both wear first time cheekpieces - KYPRIOS won a small race at Cork last month and I prefer CARLISLE BAY who was third in a Group 3 at Leopardstown last autumn.

Favourite is ADAYAR who went into a lot of notebooks when chasing home ALENQUER at Sandown a fortnight ago. ETONIAN was a disappointing last when burdened with my cash and I just think we'll get a much better run from the latter on Saturday. I quite like SCOPE after his second at Newmarket but the trip is a real concern.

Nine go in the Oaks Trial and again another weak offering with most of the field in the 80s and just TECHNIQUE and LOVING DREAM in the 90s. Both chased home promising types on their seasonal debuts - TECHNIQUE was a fine second to WIRKO at Epsom but I think LOVING DREAM's Wetherby second to NOON STAR might be the better form.

The Chartwell is the Group 3 over 1400m for the fillies. Eight go to post and we have the rarity of a German raider in AXANA who won a Listed at Hoppegarten last time. It's an early opportunity for the 3-y-o to go up against the older fillies and mares and the classic generation is represented by ISABELLA GILES who was sixth to ALCOHOL FREE in the Fred Darling. The winner didn't get home over the 1600m at Newmarket last weekend but this is an easy 1400m and I fancy ISABELLA GILES for all she was a 5lb penalty for her win in the Group 2 Rockfel last autumn. BOUNCE THE BLUES and DOUBLE OR BUBBLE also have claims.

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3 hours ago, stodge said:

One of these days I'll get round to Chester but the action comes up quick at this time of year and the final decs are through for Saturday.

Seven meetings in the UK but quantity well ahead of quality if truth be told. Ascot's card isn't that strong so it's off to Lingfield for their biggest turf flat day of the year. 

The ground is Good ahead of a card that features Derby and Oaks Trials as well as a Group 3. For those who don't know, Lingfield has some resemblances to Epsom inasmuch as there is a significant run downhill before a left-hand turn into the straight which isn't far removed from Tattenham Corner. The Lingfield straight is much less complicated than Epsom with nomadverse camber or similar and the climb in the early part of the 2350m is nothing like that at Epsom.

The race has had spells of popularity and some very good winners but went through a dip in the 2000s and 2010s until ANTHONY VAN DYCK won in 2019. Last year, ENGLISH KING was an impressive winner and went to Epsom as favourite but was disappointing.

The huge news today was the withdrawal of HIGH DEFINITION - he's in both the Derby Trial at Leopardstown on Sunday and the Dante at York next week. That leaves seven runners and it doesn't look a strong renewal. Aidan O'Brien runs KYPRIOS and CARLISLE BAY (the latter ridden by Frankie Dettori who abandons his beloved Ascot which is, I think, noteworthy). Both wear first time cheekpieces - KYPRIOS won a small race at Cork last month and I prefer CARLISLE BAY who was third in a Group 3 at Leopardstown last autumn.

Favourite is ADAYAR who went into a lot of notebooks when chasing home ALENQUER at Sandown a fortnight ago. ETONIAN was a disappointing last when burdened with my cash and I just think we'll get a much better run from the latter on Saturday. I quite like SCOPE after his second at Newmarket but the trip is a real concern.

Nine go in the Oaks Trial and again another weak offering with most of the field in the 80s and just TECHNIQUE and LOVING DREAM in the 90s. Both chased home promising types on their seasonal debuts - TECHNIQUE was a fine second to WIRKO at Epsom but I think LOVING DREAM's Wetherby second to NOON STAR might be the better form.

The Chartwell is the Group 3 over 1400m for the fillies. Eight go to post and we have the rarity of a German raider in AXANA who won a Listed at Hoppegarten last time. It's an early opportunity for the 3-y-o to go up against the older fillies and mares and the classic generation is represented by ISABELLA GILES who was sixth to ALCOHOL FREE in the Fred Darling. The winner didn't get home over the 1600m at Newmarket last weekend but this is an easy 1400m and I fancy ISABELLA GILES for all she was a 5lb penalty for her win in the Group 2 Rockfel last autumn. BOUNCE THE BLUES and DOUBLE OR BUBBLE also have claims.

2013 winner of Lingfield Derby Trial  Nevis ended up running in a few 1200 metre races in South Island  , won a couple in OZ for Lloyd Williams but clearly had issues . Trainer posts on here , Nevis shown as retired now . Be interesting to see if he is doing something different now , not trying to put trainer on spot if he was unsuitable for new home or had bad injury , just be interested if he's off doing another pursuit .

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I see Godolphin have first 2 year old out at Ascot , Wild Beauty . That Stowell too in the 3 runner maiden , be interesting if he's as good as he looks as Havlin copped a big ban on him last time . I didn't think it looked that bad on a newcomer , I've seen way worse .Gosden says his instructions are never any whip on a newcomer .

Coeur De Lion in Cup each way , King does well in these type races with hurdlers  and I picked up plenty on him at Royal Ascot last year .Going might suit better than last time out .

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Looking back on the first day of the Chester May meeting with overnight and morning rain turning the ground Good to Soft, Soft in places. John Gosden thought the ground "tacky" and Aidan O'Brien withdrew a couple of his runners from the Vase.

The Oaks Trial saw DUBAI FOUNTAIN score a narrow win over the arguably unlucky ZEYAADAH who had to sit and suffer as the winner got first run in the straight. I thought DUBAI FOUNTAIN was a steal at 7/4 based on his fourth in the Fillies Mile last autumn when she was just a neck behind MOTHER EARTH who won the 1000 Guineas. Group 1 form in Listed company - that's a clue in itself. I did think the second shaped with a lot of promise and the two could both be above average fillies.

The colts trial saw the favourite WIRKO well beaten off in fourth behind YOUTH SPIRIT who had shown plenty of soft ground form as a juvenile. The second, SANDHURST, the remaining Ballydoyle runner, ran on well and he's the one I would take with Epsom in mind.

On Sunday, three Group 3 races in Ireland at Leopardstown where the ground remains on the fast side though rain is forecast tomorrow. The Derby Trial sees Ballysax winner BOLSHOI BALLET take on the useful MAC SWINEY, who won the Vertem Futurity at Doncaster. The former has race fitness, course form and is proven on the ground so is understandably 5/4 favourite.

The 1000 Guineas Trial looks wide open - SENSE OF LIGHT and JOAN OF ARC were third and sixth in a 1400m Group 3 last month. I'm more interested in the maiden winner ACANELLA and especially in the Dermot Weld trained SHANDRA who won on debut last summer at The Curragh over 1400m and could be anything (as they say). I do think on her breeding she's going to be a middle distance type and this could be sharp enough on debut.

ACE AUSSIE chased home POETIC FLARE in the 2000 Guineas Trial last month and with the latter going on to win at Newmarket it's no surprise ACE AUSSIE is 7/4 favourite to win the Amethyst over 1600m. Joseph O'Brien runs RAISE YOU and NUMERIAN and the former looks the obvious challenger to the 3-y-o.

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Stodgy, you have you finger on the pulse, what do you think of the progeny of New Bay? He had a a good 2YO crop but apart from Saffron Beach, there doesn’t seem to be too many up to the better class of race/ You view is appreciated. Cheers John

 

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On 5/7/2021 at 4:22 AM, Red Rum said:

I see Godolphin have first 2 year old out at Ascot , Wild Beauty . That Stowell too in the 3 runner maiden , be interesting if he's as good as he looks as Havlin copped a big ban on him last time . I didn't think it looked that bad on a newcomer , I've seen way worse .Gosden says his instructions are never any whip on a newcomer .

Coeur De Lion in Cup each way , King does well in these type races with hurdlers  and I picked up plenty on him at Royal Ascot last year .Going might suit better than last time out .

WILD BEAUTY ran okay on debut, sixth but not beaten too far. The ground was on the slow side but that should have suited the daughter of TULIPS, a Pivotal mare who got to within four lengths of the great MOONLIGHT CLOUD (she who so nearly scalped BLACK CAVIAR at Ascot) in the 2013 Maurice de Gheest. The experience will no doubt bring her forward so we'll see.

On the same card, STOWELL duly hosed up in a three runner 2400m maiden. Again, as the dam was by a proven soft-ground performer in Selkirk, no surprise he relished it. 

The most impressive winner on the card was ALDAARY who hacked up in a 1400m handicap off 93. I wonder if the Jersey will be the next stop but he's another whose dam is by Pivotal so quick ground will always be a concern. He's probably the best progeny so far of Territories, who was runner up in both the 2000 Guineas and the Marois in 2015 but did win the Jean Prat.  He had a fair start as a stallion and this is his second season so it will be interesting to see if his progeny improve as 3-y-o.

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On 5/9/2021 at 10:02 AM, John Clydesdale said:

Stodgy, you have you finger on the pulse, what do you think of the progeny of New Bay? He had a a good 2YO crop but apart from Saffron Beach, there doesn’t seem to be too many up to the better class of race/ You view is appreciated. Cheers John

 

Like Territories, NEW BAY was a freshman stallion in Europe in 2020.

His best colt is ROYAL MANDATE who won the Royal Lodge but hasn't been seen since flopping in the Breeders Cup. Obviously, SAFFRON BEACH is his best filly and his only other progeny currently rated over 100 is VAFORTINO who was run well in Ireland and is trained by Joseph O'Brien. 

One I'm looking forward to seeing on grass is LA TIHATY who won a couple in the winter on the all-weather. He's also got a couple of decent sorts in the French Provinces.

They look to be stayers more than sprinters at this time - NEW BAY won the Jockey Club and was third to Golden Horn in the 2015 Arc. He was fourth in that fantastic 2016 Irish Champion Stakes which was the race of the decade for me in terms of quality and depth. 

Early days but he's started well but a sire for middle distance types.

 

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Rounding off the three day Chester May meeting, the second day saw JAPAN win the Group 3 Ormonde over 2600m. We know JAPAN has mixed it with the very best and this significant drop in grade helped even if the slow ground probably didn't. 

The plan is the Coronation Cup at Epsom.

He won but was perhaps fortunate as Ryan Moore got all the breaks and Hollie Doyle on TRUESHAN didn't and the latter was giving the winner 5 lbs so a decent effort. He'll be moved up in distance with the Gold Cup the target and a possible match with STRADIVARIUS.

Friday saw the traditional bunfight that is the Chester Cup but this year's renewal had three class acts - jockey Frankie Dettori, trainer Dermot Weld and FALCON EIGHT, a lightly raced 6-y-o who was far too good for these off 104. It was the usual shrewd bit of planning and placement from Weld but let's not forget FALCON EIGHT was only five lengths behind TWILIGHT PAYMENT in the Vintage Crop last year. Could this be the start of a Weld plot ending in Flemington in six months?

The Group 2 Huxley went to Aidan O'Brien and ARMORY who did this well and appreciated the slow ground. He's in everything from 1600m to 2400m but the Cox Plate runner -up may yet head back Down Under you'd think.

The Dee Stakes winner EL DRAMA will swerve Epsom for the Jockey Club.

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I'll cover the weekend's action in due course.

This week sees the three day Dante Meeting at York where the ground is currently Good, Good to Soft in places which takes us to Saturday at Newbury and the Group 1 Lockinge.

No Group 1 races at York but it's a strong three days of action starting on Wednesday with the Group 2 Duke of York over 1200m and the Group 3 Musidora, the Oaks Trial, over 2000m.

12 go in the former which is effectively a trial for the Diamond Jubilee at Ascot. 

OXTED, last year's July Cup winner, comes here off a surprise defeat at Newmarket and you'd just have to question him on slow ground. ART POWER won well at this track last year and ended a decent fourth in both the Sprint Trophy at Haydock and the Champions Day Sprint. That would, you'd think, be good enough in this grade.

STARMAN won three on quick ground last summer including a Listed but flopped at Ascot on soft and has some questions to answer.

I fancy ART POWER.

Eight go in the Musidora for which TEONA is 6/5 favourite. She won a Newcastle maiden by nine lengths but this is a very different proposition. NOON STAR is superbly bred (by Galileo out of Midday) and won well at Wetherby but this is again another big step. MYSTERY ANGEL arguably has the best form having won the Pretty Polly at Newmarket a fortnight ago and she's my idea of an each way steal at 11/2.  SNOWFALL represents Ballydoyle but you'd think she was well down the pecking order and at a bigger price (16s), AURIA makes some appeal having run quite well on seasonal debut at Ascot. On breeding, the trip is a concern.

Thursday sees the Group 2 Middleton and the Group 2 Dante and on Friday we have another Group 2 in the Yorkshire Cup. 

On Saturday, 16 have been entered for the Group 1 Lockinge over the straight 1600m at Newbury. 16 have been entered but PALACE PIER is the dominant horse and is 4/6 after his facile win at Sandown the other day. With the 3-y-o milers still not sorted, it's possible PALACE PIER could roll through the season unbeaten. LOPE Y FERNANDEZ has been entered by Aidan O'Brien and bits and pieces of form suggest he has claims - he looked very good on seasonal re-appearance but that was in Listed company. His second in the Jean Prat to Pinatubo was serious form.

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Unioniste that top chaser was a fatality at Devon Point to Point this weekend Stodge , super jumper and lovely horse . Someone probably needed to talk to owners before trying to flog a 13 year old round the fields this year  , the horse went round the big ones at Aintree a few times so didn't have anything to prove. Horses get hurt in their stall I know , like Collide the other week but it's got to be questioned  running him around last weekend  . 

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18 hours ago, Red Rum said:

Unioniste that top chaser was a fatality at Devon Point to Point this weekend Stodge , super jumper and lovely horse . Someone probably needed to talk to owners before trying to flog a 13 year old round the fields this year  , the horse went round the big ones at Aintree a few times so didn't have anything to prove. Horses get hurt in their stall I know , like Collide the other week but it's got to be questioned  running him around last weekend  . 

You're right and you're not right.

13 is not old for a pointer - the fences are smaller than the regulation obstacles and the races are usually run at a slower pace.

The question I would ask is this - Saturday was UNIONISTE' s fourth run in five weeks. Just eight days before, he had been a tailed off in a 6400m point at Flete Park. It's absurd to run a horse so soon after what must have been an exhausting race. 

I'm not impressed with it either and the horse deserved better than being raced to death.  

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