RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
stodge

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The final declarations are through for World Cup night at Meydan - a stellar eight race card with five Group 1 and three Group 2 races.

I'll mention the Group 2 races first starting with the Godolphin Mile. MIDNIGHT SANDS won the Burj Nahaar, the trial for this, three weeks ago convincingly though the second that day, CHIEFDOM, may have a chance from an inside draw of getting enough of an advantage to make life more difficult for MIDNIGHT SANDS. AVANT GARDE has placed Grade 2 form at Gulfstream and has claims. TUZ was third to MIDNIGHT SANDS and CHIEFDOM three weeks ago and I fancied him that day. I think he could go well but this isn't an attractive betting race.

The Dubai Gold Cup over 3200m on the grass is the big staying race of the Carnival. SPANISH MISSION was second and SECRET ADVISER third in the insanely valuable staying handicap at the Saudi Cup meeting in Riyadh (first prize £1,095,000). On the weights, the latter has a big chance of reversing the places. SUBJECTIVIST ended his 3-y-o campaign winning the Royal Oak in Paris on bottomless ground - his best runs are on deep ground and I can't fancy him on this sound surface. I think the favourite may be the one for this as well.

The UAE Derby is over 1950m on the Dirt. This looks wide open with the locals facing a strong Japanese challenge. PINK KAMEHAMEHA won the Saudi Derby at Riyadh last time while FRANCE GO DE INA has won his last two. The local challenge is led by PANADOL who won the Al Basatkiya three weeks ago and UAE Oaks winner MNASEK who was very impressive our course and distance. At a big price I quite like the American challenger AMBVALENT who ran well at Del Mar in the Bob Hope last time. A case of Bob Hope or no hope perhaps?

SPACE BLUES is 6/5 for the 1200m Al Quoz Sprint and he did it really well in Riyadh last time but that was over his trip and this is 200m shorter. FINAL SONG won the trial for this but ACKLAM EXPRESS ran a blinder in third and is a tempting each way interest at 33/1.

The draw has favoured YAUPON and MATERA SKY in the Golden Shaheen and the former, with the experience of American speed tracks, looks the one.

LORD NORTH is 7/4 favourite for the Turf over 1800m and while he's a very good horse, he's in LORD GLITTERS' yard distance wise and there won't be much between them. AL SUHAIL was third when EQTIRAAN was second behind LORD GLITTERS in the Jebel Hatta. As this was his first run off a break, I think AL SUHAIL could finally fulfil the potential he has shown at home.

MISHRIFF has been handed the outside draw in the 2400m Sheema Classic and that's not helpful. He's now 5/2 co-favourite with the Japanese CHRONO GENESIS and my fancy MOGUL whose fine win in Hong Kong looks serious form for this race.

The World Cup looks a weak renewal - my original fancy, SALUTE THE SOLDIER, has a lousy draw and the money has come for the American MYSTIC GUIDE but he won a handicap last time. JESUS'S TEAM, who chased home KNICKS GO in the Pegasus, looks a possible but he's also got a poor draw. If you can excuse his Saudi Cup effort, CHUWA WIZARD has claims and at 14/1 is a sporting each way bet.

Selections at this stage:

Godolphin Mile: CHIEFDOM

Dubai Gold Cup: SECRET ADVISER

UAE Derby: AMBIVALENT (each way)

Al Quoz Sprint: ACKLAM EXPRESS (each way)

Golden Shaheen: YAUPON

Turf: AL SUHAIL

Sheema Classic: MOGUL (Nap)

World Cup: CHUWA WIZARD (each way)

 

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The Dubai World Cup card climaxes the season in the United Arab Emirates and took place, as so often, on a warm afternoon and evening at Meydan Racecourse.

Five Group 1 and three Group 2 races formed the card which, you could argue, is one of the best single day’s racing anywhere in the world.

The opening thoroughbred contest, after an Arabian Group 1, was the Group 2 Godolphin Mile on the Dirt. I’ve talked before about the bias of the Meydan Dirt for front runners and it was brutally displayed here as SECRET AMBITION jumped best from stall two, got the lead and was never headed. He had done something similar in the Firebreak but blew the start badly in the Group 1 at the Trials meeting.

When he gets it right, SECRET AMBITION is very good – GOLDEN GOAL and AVANT GARDE came out best in a bunch for the minors, but they were six lengths behind the winner.

Next was the Group 2 Gold Cup for the stayers over 3200m on the grass. There had been a late clue with the overnight racing in Australia where the William Haggas-trained FAVORITE MOON had won the NE Mannion Cup at Rosehill. Last July, that horse had won a race at Haydock and the horse he beat that day was none other than SUBJECTIVIST.

The 4-y-o was getting 6 lbs from the older horses and was prominent throughout finding plenty in the straight to win by five and a half lengths. His best previous European form was when he won the Royal Oak at Longchamp on bottomless ground, but this was a step forward on quicker turf and augurs well for a Cup campaign this summer. I wonder if we’ll see him at York for the Yorkshire Cup over 2800m in May and, who knows, a trip to Flemington in November?

The German horse WALDERBE ran a huge race in second with the local AWAY HE GOES third. To be honest, I never thought William Buick looked happy on SECRET ADVISOR – he didn’t get a lot of room thanks oddly enough to other Godolphin runners, but it made little difference while SPANISH MISSION never looked competitive either.

The first Group 1 was the Al Quoz Sprint over 1200m on the grass. This was a strange race – most of the field quickly opted to move to the stands side and a high draw was clearly favoured. As expected, it all happened too quickly for SPACE BLUES and it was Ryan Moore on the American speedball EXTRAVAGANT KID who prevailed having been close to the speed throughout. The winner had run fourth in the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint despite being drawn in the car park.

FINAL SONG tracked over from stall four and had he been drawn higher might have won but in third, and carrying my each way slip at 50/1, was ACKLAM EXPRESS who was well behind at halfway but kept on really strongly. True, he was getting 9 lbs from the winner, but he is a 3-y-o and I can’t help but think on this evidence he’s going to be a serious player in the British and Irish sprints this summer.

The normally speedy EQUILATERAL broke well but he’s a 1000m horse and wilted in the final 100m to finish fourth.

Back to Group 2 company for the UAE Derby for the 3-y-o on the Dirt over 1900m. PANADOL broke well from the six stall and set the pace but he’s not 100% reliable at this trip for all he won the Al Bastakiya last time, and it was REBEL’S ROMANCE who stayed on well for Buick to land the race for Godolphin. He was fourth in the Saudi Derby last time, the runner up in that, COWAN, was unplaced in the turf sprint and the third, NEW TREASURE, finished third here but well held.

The Saudi Derby winner, PINK KAMEHAMEHA, had little chance from a wide draw while MNASEK and FRANCE GO DE INA completely missed the start. SOFT WHISPER was fifth in Riyadh and had won the 2000 Guineas here in February but flopped badly.

I’m not sure what to make of this form – I suspect none of these are going to cut in the mustard in Europe or America, but it may be the winner will return next winter for his next campaign which, I suppose, could lead to a tilt at the World Cup.

Group 1 races from now on starting with the Golden Shaheen over 1200m on the Dirt. This looked a trappy contest with strong runners from Japan and the USA taking on a weak-looking local contingent. However, this produced an extraordinary performance from ZENDEN who exploded out from the outside draw, was able to get across and still won easily.

ZENDEN clocked 1:09.01 for the 1200m – a really good time- - and was hugely helped by the front running bias on the Dirt track but even so this was visually hugely impressive. He won a small race at Tampa Bay Downs last time and before that had been beaten in a claimer, so his 40/1 odds were no surprise. The Japanese RED LE ZELE was brought home in second by Ryan Moore with CANVASSED, as might have been expected, the best of the locals in third.

YAUPON completely missed the start which did for him. MATERA SKY was never involved and while WILDMAN JACK went the searching early gallop (23.19 seconds for the first 400m), he didn’t get home.

The Turf over 1800m had a host of British challengers headed by LORD NORTH, LORD GLITTERS and AL SUHAIL, who dominated the pre-race betting. The three were soon in mid division but in the end only one mattered as Frankie Dettori rode a supremely confident race on LORD NORTH who was simply too good for them in the straight and sauntered home by three lengths.

This was what you want to see from a Group 1 Royal Ascot winner and he’s clearly still at the top of his game as a 5-y-o. 1800m races in Europe are quite rare – LORD NORTH won the Cambridgeshire (a handicap) over this trip in 2018 but apart from the Ganay, I can’t think of another European Group 1 at this specialist distance. To be fair, he’s not bad at 2000m and there are any number of options including the Prince of Wales, the Eclipse, the Juddmonte and the Irish Champion. A lot will depend on the calibre of this season’s 3-y-o once we get to midsummer and we know LORD NORTH is probably better on decent ground.

VIN DE GARDE ran well in second with FELIX and EPIC HERO posting career best efforts in third and fourth respectively. LORD GLITTERS got trapped on the inside and was never able to get any racing room while AL SUHAIL folded tamely 400m out.

The big middle distance turf race on the card was the Sheema Classic over 2400m. Three dominated this on paper once again – MISHRIFF had come off a Saudi Cup win, CHRONO GENESIS was a multiple Group 1 winner in Japan while MOGUL had won Group 1 races in France and Hong Kong.

CHANNEL MAKER set the early pace with the principals all travelling strongly and David Egan had MISHRIFF switched off at the rear. He started to move forward on the home turn as did CHRONO GENESIS and the other Japanese challenger, LOVES ONLY YOU and the three had a real set to in the final 300m.

Less than a length separated the three at the line but MISHRIFF prevailed by a neck to take his winnings past the 10 million sterling mark. This was a workmanlike rather than authoritative win and for all he did this you’d still think 2000m was his trip and he might struggle in the very top 2400m races in Europe. CHRONO GENESIS ran a huge race in second and both she and LOVES ONLY YOU are and continue to be closely matched. Recently, CHRONO GENESIS has had the edge but, in the Oaks, it was LOVES ONLY YOU who prevailed. They are both superb mares and will no doubt be highly prized as broodmares down the line. I’d love to see one or both come for the Arc and take on VERRY ELLEGANT and LOVE.

WALTON STREET was a respectful three lengths further back in fourth and led home the trio of Godolphin runners followed by the disappointing MOGUL.

On then to the climax and one of the world’s richest races, the Dubai World Cup, worth in excess of 5.2 million sterling. Unfortunately, the huge pot hasn’t drawn in the American big guns who came to Riyadh instead and lost out to MISHRIFF. MYSTIC GUIDE was second in the Jockey Club at Belmont and had won a Grade 3 handicap last time. He had also won the Jim Dandy at Saratoga beating JESUS’ TEAM. Neither the local nor the Japanese challenge looked up to it on paper.

HYPOTHETICAL broke well and led tracked by CAPEZZANO with CHUWA WIZARD close up and MYSTIC GUIDE close to the pace. CAPEZZANO was done with on the home turn and HYPOTHETICAL weakened in the last 300m but there was only one winner in the straight and that was MYSTIC GUIDE who was just too good for them under Luis Saez and kept the prize money in the pocket for Godolphin.

CHUWA WIZARD out ran his 18/1 odds for a respectable second with MAGNY COURS running on to give trainer Andre Fabre a third in the race for the first time followed by HYPOTHETICAL and SALUTE THE SOLDIER.

It’s hard to know what to make of the winner – this wasn’t a strong renewal and he’s no CIGAR yet, but this was only his eighth race and he looks a decent colt on the Dirt, so I imagine they’ll send him back to the states with a view to a crack at the big 2000m races such as the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

The Japanese raiders ran with plenty of credit but were out of luck in the five big races. The locals were put to the sword and the Group 1 races ended three for the USA and two for Britain. The Dirt races showed the strength of top US Dirt form, but they nicked the turf sprint as well while the middle-distance races showed the strength of European form and especially the power house that is Team Gosden (officially now John and his son Thady) who took out the Turf and the Sheema Classic with LORD NORTH and MISHRIFF.

With SUBJECTIVIST giving a nod to Group 3 handicap form in Australia and perhaps throwing his hat in the ring for Flemington later in the year, the evening wasn’t without relevance to the southern hemisphere.

If you want to see the Group 1 races:

Al Quoz Sprint: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKzokYPWDRU

Golden Shaheen: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MPk0r4xZAKc

 

Dubai Turf: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vZrVsEnMFY0

 

Sheema Classic:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZyecdKTQRc

 

Dubai World Cup: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eyoWVQnnjYU

 

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5 hours ago, stodge said:

The Dubai World Cup card climaxes the season in the United Arab Emirates and took place, as so often, on a warm afternoon and evening at Meydan Racecourse.

Five Group 1 and three Group 2 races formed the card which, you could argue, is one of the best single day’s racing anywhere in the world.

The opening thoroughbred contest, after an Arabian Group 1, was the Group 2 Godolphin Mile on the Dirt. I’ve talked before about the bias of the Meydan Dirt for front runners and it was brutally displayed here as SECRET AMBITION jumped best from stall two, got the lead and was never headed. He had done something similar in the Firebreak but blew the start badly in the Group 1 at the Trials meeting.

When he gets it right, SECRET AMBITION is very good – GOLDEN GOAL and AVANT GARDE came out best in a bunch for the minors, but they were six lengths behind the winner.

Next was the Group 2 Gold Cup for the stayers over 3200m on the grass. There had been a late clue with the overnight racing in Australia where the William Haggas-trained FAVORITE MOON had won the NE Mannion Cup at Rosehill. Last July, that horse had won a race at Haydock and the horse he beat that day was none other than SUBJECTIVIST.

The 4-y-o was getting 6 lbs from the older horses and was prominent throughout finding plenty in the straight to win by five and a half lengths. His best previous European form was when he won the Royal Oak at Longchamp on bottomless ground, but this was a step forward on quicker turf and augurs well for a Cup campaign this summer. I wonder if we’ll see him at York for the Yorkshire Cup over 2800m in May and, who knows, a trip to Flemington in November?

The German horse WALDERBE ran a huge race in second with the local AWAY HE GOES third. To be honest, I never thought William Buick looked happy on SECRET ADVISOR – he didn’t get a lot of room thanks oddly enough to other Godolphin runners, but it made little difference while SPANISH MISSION never looked competitive either.

The first Group 1 was the Al Quoz Sprint over 1200m on the grass. This was a strange race – most of the field quickly opted to move to the stands side and a high draw was clearly favoured. As expected, it all happened too quickly for SPACE BLUES and it was Ryan Moore on the American speedball EXTRAVAGANT KID who prevailed having been close to the speed throughout. The winner had run fourth in the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint despite being drawn in the car park.

FINAL SONG tracked over from stall four and had he been drawn higher might have won but in third, and carrying my each way slip at 50/1, was ACKLAM EXPRESS who was well behind at halfway but kept on really strongly. True, he was getting 9 lbs from the winner, but he is a 3-y-o and I can’t help but think on this evidence he’s going to be a serious player in the British and Irish sprints this summer.

The normally speedy EQUILATERAL broke well but he’s a 1000m horse and wilted in the final 100m to finish fourth.

Back to Group 2 company for the UAE Derby for the 3-y-o on the Dirt over 1900m. PANADOL broke well from the six stall and set the pace but he’s not 100% reliable at this trip for all he won the Al Bastakiya last time, and it was REBEL’S ROMANCE who stayed on well for Buick to land the race for Godolphin. He was fourth in the Saudi Derby last time, the runner up in that, COWAN, was unplaced in the turf sprint and the third, NEW TREASURE, finished third here but well held.

The Saudi Derby winner, PINK KAMEHAMEHA, had little chance from a wide draw while MNASEK and FRANCE GO DE INA completely missed the start. SOFT WHISPER was fifth in Riyadh and had won the 2000 Guineas here in February but flopped badly.

I’m not sure what to make of this form – I suspect none of these are going to cut in the mustard in Europe or America, but it may be the winner will return next winter for his next campaign which, I suppose, could lead to a tilt at the World Cup.

Group 1 races from now on starting with the Golden Shaheen over 1200m on the Dirt. This looked a trappy contest with strong runners from Japan and the USA taking on a weak-looking local contingent. However, this produced an extraordinary performance from ZENDEN who exploded out from the outside draw, was able to get across and still won easily.

ZENDEN clocked 1:09.01 for the 1200m – a really good time- - and was hugely helped by the front running bias on the Dirt track but even so this was visually hugely impressive. He won a small race at Tampa Bay Downs last time and before that had been beaten in a claimer, so his 40/1 odds were no surprise. The Japanese RED LE ZELE was brought home in second by Ryan Moore with CANVASSED, as might have been expected, the best of the locals in third.

YAUPON completely missed the start which did for him. MATERA SKY was never involved and while WILDMAN JACK went the searching early gallop (23.19 seconds for the first 400m), he didn’t get home.

The Turf over 1800m had a host of British challengers headed by LORD NORTH, LORD GLITTERS and AL SUHAIL, who dominated the pre-race betting. The three were soon in mid division but in the end only one mattered as Frankie Dettori rode a supremely confident race on LORD NORTH who was simply too good for them in the straight and sauntered home by three lengths.

This was what you want to see from a Group 1 Royal Ascot winner and he’s clearly still at the top of his game as a 5-y-o. 1800m races in Europe are quite rare – LORD NORTH won the Cambridgeshire (a handicap) over this trip in 2018 but apart from the Ganay, I can’t think of another European Group 1 at this specialist distance. To be fair, he’s not bad at 2000m and there are any number of options including the Prince of Wales, the Eclipse, the Juddmonte and the Irish Champion. A lot will depend on the calibre of this season’s 3-y-o once we get to midsummer and we know LORD NORTH is probably better on decent ground.

VIN DE GARDE ran well in second with FELIX and EPIC HERO posting career best efforts in third and fourth respectively. LORD GLITTERS got trapped on the inside and was never able to get any racing room while AL SUHAIL folded tamely 400m out.

The big middle distance turf race on the card was the Sheema Classic over 2400m. Three dominated this on paper once again – MISHRIFF had come off a Saudi Cup win, CHRONO GENESIS was a multiple Group 1 winner in Japan while MOGUL had won Group 1 races in France and Hong Kong.

CHANNEL MAKER set the early pace with the principals all travelling strongly and David Egan had MISHRIFF switched off at the rear. He started to move forward on the home turn as did CHRONO GENESIS and the other Japanese challenger, LOVES ONLY YOU and the three had a real set to in the final 300m.

Less than a length separated the three at the line but MISHRIFF prevailed by a neck to take his winnings past the 10 million sterling mark. This was a workmanlike rather than authoritative win and for all he did this you’d still think 2000m was his trip and he might struggle in the very top 2400m races in Europe. CHRONO GENESIS ran a huge race in second and both she and LOVES ONLY YOU are and continue to be closely matched. Recently, CHRONO GENESIS has had the edge but, in the Oaks, it was LOVES ONLY YOU who prevailed. They are both superb mares and will no doubt be highly prized as broodmares down the line. I’d love to see one or both come for the Arc and take on VERRY ELLEGANT and LOVE.

WALTON STREET was a respectful three lengths further back in fourth and led home the trio of Godolphin runners followed by the disappointing MOGUL.

On then to the climax and one of the world’s richest races, the Dubai World Cup, worth in excess of 5.2 million sterling. Unfortunately, the huge pot hasn’t drawn in the American big guns who came to Riyadh instead and lost out to MISHRIFF. MYSTIC GUIDE was second in the Jockey Club at Belmont and had won a Grade 3 handicap last time. He had also won the Jim Dandy at Saratoga beating JESUS’ TEAM. Neither the local nor the Japanese challenge looked up to it on paper.

HYPOTHETICAL broke well and led tracked by CAPEZZANO with CHUWA WIZARD close up and MYSTIC GUIDE close to the pace. CAPEZZANO was done with on the home turn and HYPOTHETICAL weakened in the last 300m but there was only one winner in the straight and that was MYSTIC GUIDE who was just too good for them under Luis Saez and kept the prize money in the pocket for Godolphin.

CHUWA WIZARD out ran his 18/1 odds for a respectable second with MAGNY COURS running on to give trainer Andre Fabre a third in the race for the first time followed by HYPOTHETICAL and SALUTE THE SOLDIER.

It’s hard to know what to make of the winner – this wasn’t a strong renewal and he’s no CIGAR yet, but this was only his eighth race and he looks a decent colt on the Dirt, so I imagine they’ll send him back to the states with a view to a crack at the big 2000m races such as the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

The Japanese raiders ran with plenty of credit but were out of luck in the five big races. The locals were put to the sword and the Group 1 races ended three for the USA and two for Britain. The Dirt races showed the strength of top US Dirt form, but they nicked the turf sprint as well while the middle-distance races showed the strength of European form and especially the power house that is Team Gosden (officially now John and his son Thady) who took out the Turf and the Sheema Classic with LORD NORTH and MISHRIFF.

With SUBJECTIVIST giving a nod to Group 3 handicap form in Australia and perhaps throwing his hat in the ring for Flemington later in the year, the evening wasn’t without relevance to the southern hemisphere.

If you want to see the Group 1 races:

Al Quoz Sprint: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKzokYPWDRU

Golden Shaheen: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MPk0r4xZAKc

 

Dubai Turf: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vZrVsEnMFY0

 

Sheema Classic:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZyecdKTQRc

 

Dubai World Cup: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eyoWVQnnjYU

 

Zenden certainly ripped home , level of improvement raised my eyebrows a bit from some of the  claimers he had run in . Sadly broke down  fatality just after line .

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16 hours ago, Red Rum said:

Zenden certainly ripped home , level of improvement raised my eyebrows a bit from some of the  claimers he had run in . Sadly broke down  fatality just after line .

I didn't have a bet in the Shaheen so I didn't watch it and there was plenty going on in the UK racing at the time. I watched the race later as a replay and they didn't show the aftermath so it was only when I saw your comment I realised ZENDEN had died. 

A terrible tragedy - oddly enough, I thought it was the performance of the meeting given the outside draw.

To report on my book from the World Cup meeting:

Dubai Gold Cup: SECRET ADVISER - £10 win - LOST

Al Quoz Sprint: ACKLAM EXPRESS (each way) - £ 5 each way at 40/1 - third - stake £10 return £45 

Turf: AL SUHAIL - £10 win - LOST

Sheema Classic: MOGUL (Nap) - £20 win - LOST

World Cup: CHUWA WIZARD (each way) - £5 each way at 20/1 - second - stake £10 return £25

Total Stake: £60  Total Return: £70

So that's an £10 profit without backing a winner !! Not often a 40/1 shot comes up in the frame. 

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12 hours ago, Red Rum said:

I see the Queen bred a winner up in HK last night Stodge , Maths Test ex Roger Charlton then Ireland beating Mustajeer at one point . Maths Test a boring name , now called Kungfumaster Panda in HK  .That's some handle and half .

Yes, the dam also threw SEXTANT (by Sea the Stars) who is now a dual purpose horse. Group 3 placed on the flat and now jumping hurdles.

MATHS TEST, as he was when he raced in the UK but mainly in Ireland, saved his best form for slower ground. Showed a little as a juvenile, won a couple of small races, placed in a decent nursery but they gelded him and it didn't improve him as a 3-y-o. He improved a little for going to Ireland and joining a smaller yard - won a couple of decent handicaps including a fair race at The Curragh doing the Irish Derby meeting but there was no real consistency and while he got to 102, he couldn't hold that and he's regressed in Hong Kong from 82 to 39 and while he can pick up a small race off that mark that's all he is I fear.

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Looking ahead, it's the time of year when the jumps are approaching their end-of-season climax and the flat is just getting started.

Friday sees All Weather Championship Finals day - the climax of a series of events run at all-weather tracks in England, Ireland and France through the winter - it's a kind of all-weather Champions Day. Six Class 2 events and while there will be a few Owners on track, the usual 10,000 Lingfield crowd will of course be absent.

Ireland stages the Fairyhouse Easter Festival culminating in the Irish Grand National on Easter Monday. Two Grade 1 races on Sunday - a novice hurdle and a novice chase both over 4000m.

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21 hours ago, stodge said:

Yes, the dam also threw SEXTANT (by Sea the Stars) who is now a dual purpose horse. Group 3 placed on the flat and now jumping hurdles.

MATHS TEST, as he was when he raced in the UK but mainly in Ireland, saved his best form for slower ground. Showed a little as a juvenile, won a couple of small races, placed in a decent nursery but they gelded him and it didn't improve him as a 3-y-o. He improved a little for going to Ireland and joining a smaller yard - won a couple of decent handicaps including a fair race at The Curragh doing the Irish Derby meeting but there was no real consistency and while he got to 102, he couldn't hold that and he's regressed in Hong Kong from 82 to 39 and while he can pick up a small race off that mark that's all he is I fear.

Not sure I agree. He improved from 2 to 3. Ran 6 lengths behind Enable first start at 3 after being gelded, then dropped off the planet at Roger's yard. Changed trainer, won a handicap by 6 and then ran 2nd in a listed race. Rated 102. Putting it into perspective, Darci Brahma was rated 101 when winning the GP 1 at Otaki.

He fell off the stage when transferred to Hong Kong. Not saying he was a great horse but he has some unrealised talent. Don't think he'll get it back though. Many horses hate Hong Kong. Terrible place for a horse.

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36 minutes ago, Berri said:

Not sure I agree. He improved from 2 to 3. Ran 6 lengths behind Enable first start at 3 after being gelded, then dropped off the planet at Roger's yard. Changed trainer, won a handicap by 6 and then ran 2nd in a listed race. Rated 102. Putting it into perspective, Darci Brahma was rated 101 when winning the GP 1 at Otaki.

He fell off the stage when transferred to Hong Kong. Not saying he was a great horse but he has some unrealised talent. Don't think he'll get it back though. Many horses hate Hong Kong. Terrible place for a horse.

That Newbury race in early 2017 was remarkable in a number of ways.

As you say, ENABLE ran third which, apart from her final run in the Arc last year, was her worst place in a race. She ran 19 times, won 15, was second twice, third once and sixth in the Arc. The two occasions she was second were to WALDGEIST in the Arc and to GHAIYYATH in the Eclipse.

SHUTTER SPEED was the more fancied of the Gosden/Abdulla pair but splitting them was none other than RAHEEN HOUSE who is now racing in Australia. Indeed, ENABLE nearly nicked second off RAHEEN HOUSE and the three were six lengths clear of TEMPLE HOUSE, who ended up rated around 100 and KUNGFUMASTER PANDA.

Off that Newbury run, KUNGFUMASTER PANDA got a rating of 90 and he never bettered that at three in the UK and ended up last in an Ascot handicap and dropping to 86.

As you say, change of scene and won a couple of races as a 4-y-o at The Curragh and his win at the Irish Derby meeting was decent and that pushed up his rating over 100. He was beaten at Roscommon off 102 by a mare of the Aga Khan's called KALAXANA - she's by Rock of Gibraltar out of a Danehill mare and her first foal might well be a juvenile this season.

Given he'd won over 2000m on quick ground and had then placed at 2350m on quick ground, I can see why they might have thought Hong Kong would suit but he started off 80 and ran a series of shockers until he placed off 44, won off 39 and has now won off 45. 

I'm not sure how NZ ratings translate to UK/Irish marks. MELODY BELLE is currently rated 116,  MISHRIFF  is related 122. Who would you be on if they met over 2000m?

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5 hours ago, stodge said:

That Newbury race in early 2017 was remarkable in a number of ways.

As you say, ENABLE ran third which, apart from her final run in the Arc last year, was her worst place in a race. She ran 19 times, won 15, was second twice, third once and sixth in the Arc. The two occasions she was second were to WALDGEIST in the Arc and to GHAIYYATH in the Eclipse.

SHUTTER SPEED was the more fancied of the Gosden/Abdulla pair but splitting them was none other than RAHEEN HOUSE who is now racing in Australia. Indeed, ENABLE nearly nicked second off RAHEEN HOUSE and the three were six lengths clear of TEMPLE HOUSE, who ended up rated around 100 and KUNGFUMASTER PANDA.

Off that Newbury run, KUNGFUMASTER PANDA got a rating of 90 and he never bettered that at three in the UK and ended up last in an Ascot handicap and dropping to 86.

As you say, change of scene and won a couple of races as a 4-y-o at The Curragh and his win at the Irish Derby meeting was decent and that pushed up his rating over 100. He was beaten at Roscommon off 102 by a mare of the Aga Khan's called KALAXANA - she's by Rock of Gibraltar out of a Danehill mare and her first foal might well be a juvenile this season.

Given he'd won over 2000m on quick ground and had then placed at 2350m on quick ground, I can see why they might have thought Hong Kong would suit but he started off 80 and ran a series of shockers until he placed off 44, won off 39 and has now won off 45. 

I'm not sure how NZ ratings translate to UK/Irish marks. MELODY BELLE is currently rated 116,  MISHRIFF  is related 122. Who would you be on if they met over 2000m?

Mishriff every day of the week. After winning the French Derby the owner asked Gosden to prepare him for the Middle East gun races. He’s delivered. Although Melody Belle picked up a weak GP 1 in Aussie, every time she faced the big boys, she got smashed 

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The Grade 1 4000m novice chase at Fairyhouse on Sunday is set to feature ENERGUMENE who missed a clash with SHISKIN at Cheltenham after being scratched from the Arkle. This should be fairly straightforward and perhaps an indication he'll be a mid-range chaser rather than a speedball next season.

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Still in Ireland but the power of Aidan O'Brien to influence betting markets simply by comments in an interview is thrown into stark relief again today.

We're just over a month from the 2000 Guineas (May 1st) and Aidan had four of the top five in the market (Joseph has THUNDER MOON as third favourite). Aidan's comment he felt BATTLEGROUND "certain" to stay 1600m caused the colt's price to be trimmed to 4/1 with Dewhurst first and second, ST MARK'S BASILICA and WEMBLEY, available at 6s and 8s respectively and Beresford winner HIGH DEFINITION at 10s. The top British contender is ONE RULER from Godolphin at 10s with CHINDIT at 14s and the Harrington pair of CADILLAC and LUCKY VEGA at 16s. If you know it was going to come up quick at Newmarket, I think CHINDIT is a big price.

In the 1000 Guineas, the praise lavished on SANTA BARBARA by O'Brien saw her price collapse to 9/4. On form, she's promising - no doubt - and she won a backend maiden at The Curragh well enough but she didn't contest any of the juvenile pattern races and the 1000 Guineas will be her second outing against battle-hardened fillies. She's by Camelot out of a Danehill mare and she's a half sister to IRIDESSA (trained by Joseph) and Breeders Cup Mile winner ORDER OF AUSTRALIA. She might be something special but I need convincing and 9/4 looks a lousy price (though on May 2nd it might look the steal of a lifetime !!).

Behind the favourite, PRETTY GORGEOUS is 5s, INDIGO GIRL at 10s, ALCOHOL FREE at 12s and SHALE at 14s. I have a sense the 3-y-o fillies this year "might" be a very strong crop - we'll see. 

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We're at that time of the year when the climax of the jumps season and the start of the flat season coincide.

Next week sees the three day Grand National meeting at Aintree racecourse, Liverpool and while most people will be concentrating on the great race on Saturday. it's a meeting which has grown in quality in the past 20 years and is seen as the significant post-Cheltenham meeting. 

Aintree is a world away from Cheltenham - apart from being left-handed , they have nothing in common. After the rout inflicted by the Irish at Cheltenham (23-5 to the Emerald Isle), it may be a chance for the home team to re-group.

The ground currently at Aintree is Good to Soft, Good in places and after a prolonged dry spell, watering is taking place. It can get very quick at Aintree and a fast flat track means speed and in jump racing that's when the problems start.

On Thursday. there are four Grade 1 races starting with the Manifesto Chase over 4000m for the mid-range novices. Arkle winner SHISHKIN is among one of 14 entered and he would be a short priced favourite if he went for this. I suspect he won't and the stable will rely on Marsh Chase runner-up FUSIL RAFFLES who makes obvious appeal. I fancied SHAN BLUE at Cheltenham but he didn't quite get home and this faster flatter track will be a big help as it will be for one or two others.

The Doom Bar Hurdle is the race for the juvenile novice hurdlers. Nine have been entered including Triumph runner up ADAGIO and the fifth TRITONIC and I fancy the latter to be a lot more competitive on this track. Ante post favourite is MONMIRAL who is unbeaten in four races and swerved Cheltenham. I'm not convinced about him on quick ground.

The Betway Bowl over 4800m is, if you like, the Gold Cup consolation race. NATIVE RIVER was fourth in the Gold Cup but I'm much more interested in WAITING PATIENTLY who was second in the King George and was six lengths in front of CLAN DES OBEAUX that day. I can excuse a slightly sub standard performance over 4000m on soft ground next time as I think these conditions will be ideal. TIGER ROLL will carry a lot of popular support but on base form he has it to find with these in my view and I'm more interested in Ryanair runner up FAKIR D'OUDAIRIES

The Aintree Hurdle over 4000m is a fascinating mid-range race. It's neither a repeat of the Champion Hurdle nor the Stayers Hurdle. ABRACADABRAS fell in the Champion and I'm much more interested in SILVER STREAK who won the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton and who will love the flat track and decent ground. 12/1 looks a knocking each way price and I'm going to play. BEACON EDGE was fourth in the Stayers and I'd much rather have one moving up in trip than one coming back.

 

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On 4/4/2021 at 8:39 AM, stodge said:

We're at that time of the year when the climax of the jumps season and the start of the flat season coincide.

Next week sees the three day Grand National meeting at Aintree racecourse, Liverpool and while most people will be concentrating on the great race on Saturday. it's a meeting which has grown in quality in the past 20 years and is seen as the significant post-Cheltenham meeting. 

Aintree is a world away from Cheltenham - apart from being left-handed , they have nothing in common. After the rout inflicted by the Irish at Cheltenham (23-5 to the Emerald Isle), it may be a chance for the home team to re-group.

The ground currently at Aintree is Good to Soft, Good in places and after a prolonged dry spell, watering is taking place. It can get very quick at Aintree and a fast flat track means speed and in jump racing that's when the problems start.

On Thursday. there are four Grade 1 races starting with the Manifesto Chase over 4000m for the mid-range novices. Arkle winner SHISHKIN is among one of 14 entered and he would be a short priced favourite if he went for this. I suspect he won't and the stable will rely on Marsh Chase runner-up FUSIL RAFFLES who makes obvious appeal. I fancied SHAN BLUE at Cheltenham but he didn't quite get home and this faster flatter track will be a big help as it will be for one or two others.

The Doom Bar Hurdle is the race for the juvenile novice hurdlers. Nine have been entered including Triumph runner up ADAGIO and the fifth TRITONIC and I fancy the latter to be a lot more competitive on this track. Ante post favourite is MONMIRAL who is unbeaten in four races and swerved Cheltenham. I'm not convinced about him on quick ground.

The Betway Bowl over 4800m is, if you like, the Gold Cup consolation race. NATIVE RIVER was fourth in the Gold Cup but I'm much more interested in WAITING PATIENTLY who was second in the King George and was six lengths in front of CLAN DES OBEAUX that day. I can excuse a slightly sub standard performance over 4000m on soft ground next time as I think these conditions will be ideal. TIGER ROLL will carry a lot of popular support but on base form he has it to find with these in my view and I'm more interested in Ryanair runner up FAKIR D'OUDAIRIES

The Aintree Hurdle over 4000m is a fascinating mid-range race. It's neither a repeat of the Champion Hurdle nor the Stayers Hurdle. ABRACADABRAS fell in the Champion and I'm much more interested in SILVER STREAK who won the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton and who will love the flat track and decent ground. 12/1 looks a knocking each way price and I'm going to play. BEACON EDGE was fourth in the Stayers and I'd much rather have one moving up in trip than one coming back.

 

Ima getting drawn to a bit of each way Farclas at between 33s and 40s .Like the look of his form and weight . 

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7 hours ago, Red Rum said:

Ima getting drawn to a bit of each way Farclas at between 33s and 40s .Like the look of his form and weight . 

Well, it's the same line of thinking as with TIGER ROLL. FARCLAS won the Triumph in 2018 and this is 2400m further than he's ever gone before but then TIGER ROLL did it. 

He's a young horse - only seven. I just wonder if this is a "sighter" for next year.

Early thoughts - the ground is going to be quicker than it has been for many years so all the midwinter plodders are going to be at a huge disadvantage. It's also going to be run at a quicker pace so again the slow boats will be hopelessly outpaced but it'll also impact on the non-stayers as they will be going hard from the start.

Speed also means more fallers - they go a stride quicker and that will be the issue as well so you want a strong stayer and reliable jumper proven on decent ground.

CLOTH CAP fits all of that but at 7/2 he's a stupid price. He might win but there's far too many variables to make 7/2 in a 40-runner field anything approaching value. 

I've not gone through the race in detail - it's possible there's a big price outsider who will come on a ton for some better ground. Among the better fancied horses, MAGIC OF LIGHT, runner up in 2019, looks attractive at 20/1. He's not raced on decent ground since the National and his very best form is on a sound surface.

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An unusually cold spell up here currently - it was snowing during racing at Pontefract this afternoon !!

It shouldn't last but the cold dry weather has kept the taps going at Aintree as the course tries to keep the ground from getting too fast in advance of the National meeting starting on Thursday. The penetrometer readings suggest the National course is still on the soft side of good but the Mildmay track is Good and the chase course is approaching Good to Firm. 

Final declarations are through for Day 1:

Just seven go in the opening Manifesto Chase over 4000m. FUSIL RAFFLES is my idea of the winner after his fine win in the Marsh and while THE SHUNTER picked up a nice bonus when winning the Paddy Power Plate (beating FARCLAS), this is playing in the big leagues and he's got a little to find. HITMAN is interesting but beat nothing at Newbury last time while PROTEKTORAT is interesting off a wind operation but may need further.

Just six in the Doom Bar Hurdle for the speedy juveniles. Paul Nicholls sent a weak team to Cheltenham and we'll see if this turns out to be a wise move as he's put much more into the Aintree challenge while the Irish will be mostly at home. MONMIRAL swerved Prestbury Park and comes here unbeaten in three and could be anything but ADAGIO is serious opposition having been runner up in the Triumph. I remember him winning well at Warwick on quick ground last autumn but he's had a long campaign and the Nicholls runner might just be too smart.

Nine go in the Betway Bowl - Aintree's equivalent of the Gold Cup - but only TIGER ROLL represents the Irish and for all he was convincing in the Cross Country last time and has won twice over the National fences, I can't have him in this class over the ordinary fences. I think it will all happen far too quickly for him. NATIVE RIVER was fourth in the Gold Cup but this is a very different race and I can't see him having the speed on this ground. WAITING PATIENTLY and CLAN DES OBEAUX were second and third to FRODON in the King George which is effectively this race run right handed. I prefer the former and I wouldn't rule out CLONDAW CASTLE who won a big 4800m handicap at Kempton last time and his earned his crack at the top level.

The feature (arguably) is the Aintree Hurdle over 4000m which is the nearest thing to a championship for this intermediate distance. I'm on SILVER STREAK who I think will love the ground and the trip. BREWINUPASTORM beat MCFABULOUS in the National Spirit at Fontwell last time and it may be we'll see something better from ABRACADABRAS who won on decent ground at Down Royal early in the season but fell in the Champion Hurdle.

Day 1 Selections:

Manifesto Chase: FUSIL RAFFLES

Doom Bar Hurdle: MONMIRAL

Betway Bowl Chase: WAITING PATIENTLY

Aintree Hurdle: SILVER STREAK

Remiss of me not to mention the retirement of Richard Johnson on Saturday. He was 16 times runner up to the great Tony McCoy in the jump jockeys title race but when "AP" retired, Johnson managed four title wins.

Also remiss of me not to mention that, while the National meeting dominates in the UK, over in Ireland they had their National yesterday and it was won by 150/1 outsider FREEWHEELIN' DYLAN - the sort of finish when the only ones cheering home the winner are the lad/lass and the bookies. The owner and trainer are stunned into silence by it all.

Sunday in Ireland sees the opening Leopardstown flat meeting with trials for the 1000 and 2000 Guineas. Both SHALE and PRETTY GORGEOUS are in the 1000 trail but we'll see who really wants to come to the party with the final declarations on Friday.  

 

 

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It's one reason I don't play in Jumpers Bumpers, my friend.

I'm not sure Charlotte Jones had a lot of say in this - THE STEWARD had looked keen before the race - but the other jockeys just had a collective nightmare.

They tried the same tactics five days later but needless to say the other riders were wise and THE STEWARD was collared 500m out and ended up beaten 25 lengths in fifth in a similar race.

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On then to the second day of the Aintree meeting and news overnight after further watering and a light shower, the ground remains Good to Soft, Good in places but the Mildmay course ground has eased noticeably with the going stick reading on the chase course down from 6.2 to 5.8

10 go in the 3200m Top Hurdle for the speedier novice jumpers. @Red Rumwill be pleased to see BELFAST BANTER, his winner in the County Hurdle, in the field but he won't get such big odds this time. Handicap form against the top novices raises a question as well. DUSART hasn't been seen since a smooth win at Newbury last November and you'd suspect he's been put away for this race. THIRD TIME LUCKI was sixth to BELFAST BANTER but gets a nice pull in the weights in this conditions race. 

HOUX GRIS was fourth in the juvenile handicap at Cheltenham and the winner of that went in again at Fairyhouse on Monday. ANY NEWS tipped up at Kelso last time but ran well at Cheltenham last autumn and his chances in an open if slightly sub-standard renewal.

The lack of Irish challengers in that race is also seen in the Mildmay Chase over 5000m for the staying novices. CHANTRY HOUSE was a convincing winner of the Marsh at Cheltenham once ENVOI ALLEN had crashed out. This is 1000m further but should be fine - SHAN BLUE was 12 lengths behind that day but I fancy him to be closer. FIDDLERONTHEROOF chased home MONKFISH in the Brown Advisory, the Cheltenham equivalent of this race, but I think the quicker, flatter track won't help and I fear the same will be true for the huge horse that is THE BIG BREAKAWAY.

The Marsh Chase isn't the same race as at Cheltenham - this is over 4000m and fills a gap for the intermediate chasers. POLITOLOGUE was thrashed 20 lengths by MIN in this two years ago but, as the saying goes, that was then and this is now. He won the Tingle Creek but was well held in the Ascot Chase. DASHEL DRASHER did me a big favour at Ascot in February but I doubt whether this is his track or his ground. FAKIR D'OUDAIRIES was taken out of a race at Fairyhouse on Monday and this consistent type chased home CHACUN POUR SOI in the Dublin Chase and ALLAHO in the Ryanair so will have every chance in this. MY idea of the winner is MASTER TOMMYTUCKER who has some decent form on a sound surface and ran a fine race in defeat to DASHEL DRASHER last time. I'm on at 5/1.

The Sefton Hurdle over 5000m is the championship race for the staying novices. BRAVEMANSGAME was third to BOB OLINGER in the Ballymore at Cheltenham and the extra trip should hold no fears. OSCAR ELITE and STREETSOFDOYEN were second and third in the Albert Bartlett and I just wonder if they'll have the speed for this on a faster flatter track.

Selections for Day Two:

Top Hurdle: ANY NEWS (each way)

Mildmay Chase: CHANTRY HOUSE

Marsh Chase: MASTER TOMMYTUCKER

Sefton Hurdle: BRAVEMANSGAME

 

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On then to Saturday and 40 will run in the Grand National over 6850m. CLOTH CAP remains 4/1 favourite and both my fancy,  MAGIC OF LIGHT, and @Red Rum's idea of a good bet, FARCLAS, have been backed. MAGIC OF LIGHT is now 16s from 20s and FARCLAS is 20s from 33s.

Before the big race, there are three championship races on a strong final day card.

The Mersey Hurdle is for the intermediate novices over 4000m. MY DROGO is a horse a lot of people have followed this year and he dotted up at Kelso last time. Connections swerved Cheltenham and we'll see if this was a wise move. BALLYADAM was no match for APPRECIATE IT at Cheltenham but this is a different race and I think the step up in trip will be a big help. Of the others, ADMIREL ran a shocker in the Albert Bartlett, DREAL DEAL relished the heavy midwinter ground and may not enjoy this quicker turf while MINELLA ALLEN bossed a couple of races in the north but this is a big step up in grade.

The Maghull Chase is for the speedy novices over 3200m. Arkle winner SHISHKIN is 1/6 and that tells you all you need to know.

The Stayers Hurdle over 4900m is a rematch of the Long Walk from before Christmas where PAISLEY PARK just ran down THYNE HILL in the final 50m with ROKSANA not far away in third. THYNE HILL was forced to miss Cheltenham while PAISLEY PARK was a gallant third in the World Hurdle and ROKSANA was third in the Mares Hurdle over 4000m. I think it will happen too quickly for PAISLEY PARK on this ground and while I like THYNE HILL a lot, I just wonder if going back up in trip on this flatter track will work for ROKSANA who would be my selection. 2019 World Hurdle winner LISNAGAR OSCAR fell at Cheltenham and while THIRD WIND won the Rendlesham at Haydock that wasn't a strong renewal. The 7 lbs mares allowance sways this in ROKSANA's favour for me.

Selections for Saturday:

Mersey Hurdle: BALLYADAM

Maghull Chase: SHISHKIN

Stayers Hurdle: ROKSANA

Grand National: MAGIC OF LIGHT (each way) 

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14 hours ago, Red Rum said:

Rowland Ward in last  might go ok for some each way money at  25s . No weight , better ground might help, wind surgery prior to last run and tongue tie tried first time.  Track may suit him . 

Hope you got the early odds on  offer Rowland Ward Stodge . 12s SP OK but lot bigger earlier in day . 

Had the winner of Topham as my other bet so a good night.

Didn't back old Belfast Banter as said I'd never back it again after Cheltenham, I quit the table on him with my cash but good to see him win again.

So cheesed off I missed the Elliott Irish set up job in first , a classic set up missed , bugger .

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It may be Grand National weekend but elsewhere the pace of the new Flat season is quickening with the first of the Guineas trials in France and Ireland.

Yesterday saw the Djebel and the Imprudence, the trials for the 3-y-o colts and fillies over 1400m at Deauville. Unusually, the ground was Good - it's often Heavy for this meeting. That may have contributed to a couple of surprise results as FAST RAAJ outpointed PIMENTO in a Djebel which was run below standard and may be decent form. As for the Imprudence, this went to REINA MADRE who ran down SKY ANGEL in the final 20m. The previously unbeaten SEE THE ROSE was held in fourth and it may be she now needs a little further.

Equally unusually, the opening Leopardstown meeting looks set to be run on quick ground - Good, Good to Firm in places. That's brought out some decent sized fields - 12 go in the Listed 2000 Guineas Trial over 1400m. MONAASIB is top rated and 3/1 favourite - he chased home HIGH DEFINITION in the Beresford last year but I'm not convinced 1400m on this quick track will suit. HOROSCOPE won a Curragh maiden the other day but how he'll cope with this quicker ground and very different track I don't know. POETIC FLARE was thought good enough to take his chance in the Dewhurst and he may just be the answer.

The 1000 Guineas Trial is a Group 3 and sees the return of SHALE who beat PRETTY GORGEOUS twice on good ground and finished behind her twice on soft ground. I expect SHALE to win this and have a huge chance at Newmarket if the ground is quick. She's trained by Donnacha but Aidan relies on EMPRESS JOSEPHINE who won on debut at Naas. The problem I have is EMPRESS JOSEPHINE is fantastically bred - by Galileo out of Lillie Langtry - but that breeding screams 2400m not 1400m.

It's also unseasonably quick ground at Longchamp for their opening meeting of the new season. The feature is the Group 2 Harcourt over 2000mfor the older horses. SKALLETI heads the weights and he returned with a nice win the other day. He's won on Good ground but GOLD TRIP and ECRIVAIN are serious opponents. GOLD TRIP was third in the Grand Prix de Paris and fourth in the Arc which just makes me think 2400m is his trip. I'm interested in ECRIVAIN over this trip on this ground. 

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22 hours ago, Red Rum said:

Rowland Ward in last  might go ok for some each way money at  25s . No weight , better ground might help, wind surgery prior to last run and tongue tie tried first time.  Track may suit him 

I got on at $23's and $6.50 fixed, thank you very much Red Rum. Closed off on Ladbrokes at 12's. Brilliant tipping mate, you sure do know those northern nags. 

Said it before, and will say it again, treat yaself at the chippy tonight. Upgrade to a crumbed blue cod and spend an extra 50p on the plastic tartare sauce sachet. Well deserved. 

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5 hours ago, Rusty said:

I got on at $23's and $6.50 fixed, thank you very much Red Rum. Closed off on Ladbrokes at 12's. Brilliant tipping mate, you sure do know those northern nags. 

Said it before, and will say it again, treat yaself at the chippy tonight. Upgrade to a crumbed blue cod and spend an extra 50p on the plastic tartare sauce sachet. Well deserved. 

Gonna buy the crumbed blue cod out winnings Rusty  , and a bottle of fizzy for the kids to drink while they watch me eat it , covered in 1 x 50c tartare sauce packet .

Get on Farclas EW .

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