RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
stodge

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I've not seen the photo but in terms of PR for racing, it's catastrophic.

Elliott has lost the sponsorship of Betfair and while O'Leary, his principal owner as boss of Gigginstown, is staying with him there's no doubt behind the words he's livid. 

There will be consequences - the HRI is far from happy (it's the latest in a series of scandals, mishaps and other problems for horse racing in Ireland) but I'm not sure what they can do beyond a fine. In Britain, this news coming three weeks before Cheltenham will test the adage any publicity is good publicity. It's interesting very few are leaping to Elliott's defence tonight.

Elsewhere, Saturday is "Super Saturday" at Meydan - the last meeting before World Cup Night later in the month. Two Group 1 races, the third round of the Al Maktoum Challenge on the Dirt and the Jebel Hatta on the grass and I'll preview these later in the week.

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1 hour ago, Ohokaman said:

He's in real strife , Irish racing good with top few trainers but underneath they are struggling so a lot with have it in for him  . He learnt his trade at Martin Pipes back in day . 

There's a few things going on in Irish Racing and I think it's getting a dog fight to survive under the top few .

Augustine Leahy gets mentioned a few times on some well used forums , put it this way unless JP MacManus owns the horse it isn't that flash finishing down the field once or twice out of his stable  if the databases are cross referenced . Some startling coincidences  race dates to appearing on HRI death  returns .Sometimes strange things happen I suppose .

 

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On 3/2/2021 at 12:41 PM, Ohokaman said:

He can go the job centre with Rob James , another clown who's been caught out .  Rule 1 don't be a fool, rule 2 don't film it if acting the fool  , rule 3 if someone has filmed it make sure  always on friendly terms until the end of time . Total utter fools the pair of them .

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As far as Gordon Elliott is concerned, I suspect Friday is going to be very rough for him when the HRI investigation reports. He's already lost the Cheveley Park horses (including ENVOI ALLEN) and while other owners have stayed loyal for now, they can act under the cover of the HRI findings.

It's possible Elliott will step away for 6-12 months - it's all about him not his yard per se so someone else could train the horses. The BHA have said while Elliott can't have runners in Britain, the horses can run from another yard - the proximity of Cheltenham offers them no other option.

On the track, 11 have been entered for the Jebel Hatta at Meydan on Saturday. Run over 1800m on the grass, the top rated runner is our old mate LORD GLITTERS who won the Singspiel and was a close third in the Al Rasadiya, the two Group 2 equivalent races in the Meydan calendar. Favourite is the lightly-raced 4-y-o AL SUHAIL who was thought good enough to run in the 2000 Guineas in June but flopped. He returned a month later in Listed company and bolted up by 6 lengths but this was eight months ago. Zabeel Mile runner up FIRST CONTACT looks a bit of value at 16s for an each way punt.

11 also line up in the third and final round of the Al Maktoum Challenge over 2000m on the Dirt. I don't know if you would call this a trial for the World Cup - SALUTE THE SOLDIER is top rated at 113 so probably not in all honesty. He won Round 2 of the Challenge having run third in Round 1 and looks to tick all the boxes. THEGREATCOLLECTION does looks closely matched with the selection, having been runner up in both the first two rounds of the Challenge but he doesn't have a favourable draw. The others look a bit ordinary to be honest - SECRET AMBITION won a Group 3 last time and the rest ate mostly handicappers trying their luck at the top level.

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3 hours ago, stodge said:

As far as Gordon Elliott is concerned, I suspect Friday is going to be very rough for him when the HRI investigation reports. He's already lost the Cheveley Park horses (including ENVOI ALLEN) and while other owners have stayed loyal for now, they can act under the cover of the HRI findings.

It's possible Elliott will step away for 6-12 months - it's all about him not his yard per se so someone else could train the horses. The BHA have said while Elliott can't have runners in Britain, the horses can run from another yard - the proximity of Cheltenham offers them no other option.

On the track, 11 have been entered for the Jebel Hatta at Meydan on Saturday. Run over 1800m on the grass, the top rated runner is our old mate LORD GLITTERS who won the Singspiel and was a close third in the Al Rasadiya, the two Group 2 equivalent races in the Meydan calendar. Favourite is the lightly-raced 4-y-o AL SUHAIL who was thought good enough to run in the 2000 Guineas in June but flopped. He returned a month later in Listed company and bolted up by 6 lengths but this was eight months ago. Zabeel Mile runner up FIRST CONTACT looks a bit of value at 16s for an each way punt.

11 also line up in the third and final round of the Al Maktoum Challenge over 2000m on the Dirt. I don't know if you would call this a trial for the World Cup - SALUTE THE SOLDIER is top rated at 113 so probably not in all honesty. He won Round 2 of the Challenge having run third in Round 1 and looks to tick all the boxes. THEGREATCOLLECTION does looks closely matched with the selection, having been runner up in both the first two rounds of the Challenge but he doesn't have a favourable draw. The others look a bit ordinary to be honest - SECRET AMBITION won a Group 3 last time and the rest ate mostly handicappers trying their luck at the top level.

Paul Nicholls made me laugh , he said it's taken a year to get those Mullins horses performing after their transfer last year so it's a tough job in two weeks  . Fair enough two weeks is tough .Feed, routine  etc etc . He didn't mention it's  tough to replicate the genius . If it takes a year why does he buy a shed load out of France after a juvenile win in October or  November to target the Triumph in March . how would he do it in the claimers and sellers .Excuses excuses I reckon .

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On 3/4/2021 at 8:46 AM, stodge said:

As far as Gordon Elliott is concerned, I suspect Friday is going to be very rough for him when the HRI investigation reports. He's already lost the Cheveley Park horses (including ENVOI ALLEN) and while other owners have stayed loyal for now, they can act under the cover of the HRI findings.

It's possible Elliott will step away for 6-12 months - it's all about him not his yard per se so someone else could train the horses. The BHA have said while Elliott can't have runners in Britain, the horses can run from another yard - the proximity of Cheltenham offers them no other option.

On the track, 11 have been entered for the Jebel Hatta at Meydan on Saturday. Run over 1800m on the grass, the top rated runner is our old mate LORD GLITTERS who won the Singspiel and was a close third in the Al Rasadiya, the two Group 2 equivalent races in the Meydan calendar. Favourite is the lightly-raced 4-y-o AL SUHAIL who was thought good enough to run in the 2000 Guineas in June but flopped. He returned a month later in Listed company and bolted up by 6 lengths but this was eight months ago. Zabeel Mile runner up FIRST CONTACT looks a bit of value at 16s for an each way punt.

11 also line up in the third and final round of the Al Maktoum Challenge over 2000m on the Dirt. I don't know if you would call this a trial for the World Cup - SALUTE THE SOLDIER is top rated at 113 so probably not in all honesty. He won Round 2 of the Challenge having run third in Round 1 and looks to tick all the boxes. THEGREATCOLLECTION does looks closely matched with the selection, having been runner up in both the first two rounds of the Challenge but he doesn't have a favourable draw. The others look a bit ordinary to be honest - SECRET AMBITION won a Group 3 last time and the rest ate mostly handicappers trying their luck at the top level.

What is your assessment of Tritonic Stodge. Just watched the race from Saturday .Clipped a couple but only 2nd race over hurdles . Loved the way he lengthened up after last , in the right stable and flat form shows he can shift . He was fancied to give weight and beating to Emissary at Yarmouth last year , came up bit short but he's gone for big money to Moroney in OZ .That Triumph looks very very good this year . 

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22 hours ago, Red Rum said:

What is your assessment of Tritonic Stodge. Just watched the race from Saturday .Clipped a couple but only 2nd race over hurdles . Loved the way he lengthened up after last , in the right stable and flat form shows he can shift . He was fancied to give weight and beating to Emissary at Yarmouth last year , came up bit short but he's gone for big money to Moroney in OZ .That Triumph looks very very good this year . 

I thought TRITONIC did it very well. 

He relished the quicker ground (officially Good) and the sharper flatter track and won as he was entitled to on his flat rating (96). As to whether he'll win the Triumph, the Adonis winner always goes with a big chance but the Triumph is a unique race. They go flat out and it's often a big field and that can unnerve the inexperienced or the mentally fragile and they go too quick for those who have enjoyed the winter plundering prizes on heavy turf.

TRITONIC could well be the answer and many think so as he's been backed from 7/2 to 5/2 since winning at Kempton last Saturday. He'll not want too much rain before the Festival but I'm not convinced going the other way on an undulating track in the hustle and bustle is for him. I prefer QUILLIXIOS of the main fancies at this stage.

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49 minutes ago, stodge said:

I thought TRITONIC did it very well. 

He relished the quicker ground (officially Good) and the sharper flatter track and won as he was entitled to on his flat rating (96). As to whether he'll win the Triumph, the Adonis winner always goes with a big chance but the Triumph is a unique race. They go flat out and it's often a big field and that can unnerve the inexperienced or the mentally fragile and they go too quick for those who have enjoyed the winter plundering prizes on heavy turf.

TRITONIC could well be the answer and many think so as he's been backed from 7/2 to 5/2 since winning at Kempton last Saturday. He'll not want too much rain before the Festival but I'm not convinced going the other way on an undulating track in the hustle and bustle is for him. I prefer QUILLIXIOS of the main fancies at this stage.

Thanks , yes very different tracks Stodge . Last time I was at Kempton was in 99 when Katarino won the Adonis , he went on to get a great record over those National fences . I see he lived to 22 so done OK.  The race used to be sponsored by the Afro  Caribbean newspaper The Voice . 

Had a look at Cheveleys record with their jump purchases last few years , they pick them pretty well. Wins to runs outstanding . Quillixios and Envoi Allen they are helping . I see Malone Road has gone to DE Bromhead . He must be very fragile but they must be convinced he has a real engine .

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18 hours ago, Red Rum said:

Thanks , yes very different tracks Stodge . Last time I was at Kempton was in 99 when Katarino won the Adonis , he went on to get a great record over those National fences . I see he lived to 22 so done OK.  The race used to be sponsored by the Afro  Caribbean newspaper The Voice . 

Had a look at Cheveleys record with their jump purchases last few years , they pick them pretty well. Wins to runs outstanding . Quillixios and Envoi Allen they are helping . I see Malone Road has gone to DE Bromhead . He must be very fragile but they must be convinced he has a real engine .

Well remembered, sir. KATARINO was a decent type. The one thing about the Adonis is it's often run on decent ground and more like the ground we'll get at Cheltenham than the mid-winter slogs through the mud.

As far as the Triumph is concerned, FRENCH ASEEL has come out this morning and it looms a three-horse race between TRITONIC, QUILIXIOS and ZANAHIYR. The Elliott yard is now in the name of one Denise "Sneezy" Foster (no, haven't a clue) who will hold the licence while Elliott is suspended - the big question is whether Gigginstown will stay loyal to the yard - if they go, that's pretty much the end for Elliott and his stable.

MALONE ROAD is one of the Cheveley Park horses who has gone to Henry de Bromhead. The horse was at one time favourite for the Champion Bumper in one season and for the Supreme Novices in the next but never got to either. He's had knee trouble which has kept his racecourse appearances sporadic. His debut win over hurdles last July after 642 days off was exciting though he beat nothing but he was just beaten into third when 2/5 at Listowel last September. The winner, from the Mullins yard, went on to run third in the Royal Bond at Fairyhouse but has flopped badly twice since. The second, trained by another disqualified trainer in Charles Byrnes, was well beaten in a Group 3.

They could send MALONE ROAD over fences next season but the knee issue is a worry. 

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On then to the review of "Super Saturday" at Meydan - not sure that quite stands up if I'm being honest. It's a decent card but I'm not sure of the depth of some of the races especially the 3-y-o races this early in the northern hemisphere spring.

Two Group 1 events to consider and the first was the Jebel Hatta over 1800m on the turf. AL SUHAIL had been thought good enough to take a chance in the 2000 Guineas but that was beyond him. He returned to form with a 6-length romp in a Listed race at Newmarket but faced the veteran 8-y-o LORD GLITTERS who had solid form including a third in the Dubai Turf last year. 

This was an intriguing race - they went no gallop early and Danny Tudhope had LORD GLITTERS out the back as he is the ultimate hold-up horse but when it's a tactical race, that doesn't work so well for the old boy but Tudhope got him rolling leaving the back straight. William Buick probably regretted the slow early as well as AL SUHAIL didn't settle well but in the straight quickened nicely to take over from early pace setters COURT HOUSE and EQTIRAAN and with 200m it looked good for the favourite but Tudhope wasn't giving up and he tracked AL SUHAIL and as the latter faltered in the final 100m, LORD GLITTERS came between horses to score on the jamstick from EQTIRAAN who rallied well for second with AL SUHAILthird, ART DU VAL fourth and COURT HOUSE fifth.

The placed horses down to fifth were prominent throughout but LORD GLITTERS came from last off a slow early and outstayed them in the sprint to the line, AL SUHAIL pulled too hard early and  was on fumes in the final 150m. This was a fine ride by Tudhope and a great win for LORD GLITTERS and trainer David O'Meara and presumably it's next stop the Dubai Turf. EQTIRAAN out ran his odds and I'll certainly give AL SUHAIL another chance back at 1600m.

The third and final round of the Al Maktoum Challenge over 2000m on the Dirt looked wide open but in the end it was quite simple as Adrie de Vriess got SALUTE THE SOLDIER rolling from his low draw and managed to get the lead passing the winning post first time and, as we know, pace setters have a huge advantage on the Meydan dirt and SALUTE THE SOLDIER made most and came home  by a length and three quarters from HYPOTHETICAL, ROMAN ROSSO and THEGREATCOLLECTION. As to whether SALUTE THE SOLDIRE could mix it with the top notchers in the World Cup only time will tell but I don't rate him that highly for all he was won two of the Al Maktoum Challenge races. I thought ROMAN ROSSO ran a fine third in third after an injury which kept him out of the second round of the challenge and an unfavourable outside draw. I thought THEGREATCOLLECTION was travelling best on the home turn but he didn't get home.

The supporting Group 2 was the City of Gold over 2400m on the turf. Only seven went to post with four representing Godolphin and it was a 1-2-3-4 for the boys in blue with WALTON STREET coming home a comfortable winner and to be honest those who backed Buick's mount at 1/2 never had a moment's worry. WALTON STREET is a 7-y-o but lightly raced and just had too much foot for DUBAI FUTURE over this trip. He clearly relishes a flat track and decent ground so a race like the Yorkshire Cup, if it came up decent ground, could be ideal. I'm not sure if he can mix it with the very best at 2400m but he's more than decent.

A trio of Group 3 events - the Mahab al Shamaal over 1200m on the Dirt course saw CANVASSED follow up his win in a handicap by running down GOOD EFFORT on whom Frankie Dettori tried to make every yard and he been drawn one or to rather than ten he might well have held on. The Burj Nahaar over 1600m on the Dirt saw MIDNIGHT SANDS return to form on a track where's he won on five occasions. He was sent to America for a campaign which didn't go well and back in Dubai he's found his form. I thought TUZ ran a huge race in second under Buick and is one for the notebook over further. The Nad al Sheba Turf Sprint remembers the track Meydan used to be - it's run over 1200m on the grass.  The race went to FINAL SONG who just held the late challenges of MOTAFAAWIT and ACKLAM EXPRESS. 

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A quiet week up here as we head toward the four days of Cheltenham starting next Tuesday.

Ascot has announced today, with much fanfare, an increase in prize money for the Royal meeting which is just three months away. The meeting will keep to its normal dates as any move to push it back a week to coincide with the final lifting of coronavirus restrictions in the UK has been blocked.

In 2019, the Royal meeting put up £7 million in prize money and was aiming for £8 million in 2020 but Covid-19 was a hammer blow and, facing a huge drop in income, the races last year went for just £3.8 million. 2021's Royal meeting will have prize money of £6 million so below 2019 and well below where Ascot was expecting to be .

Further on, the King George in late July is up from £400k last year to £875k which is a big push back.

 

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The first entries are through for Cheltenham next week.

For those who aren't acquainted, it's a 4-day extravaganza for the jumps fraternity in Gloucestershire. Cheltenham Racecourse is a superb venue - I've been on three or four occasions - and is the equal of any Group 1 Flat track in Europe. The viewing is superb and the facilities top notch.

The Festival is the jumps equivalent of Royal Ascot - a series of championship races and extremely competitive handicaps over the four days. I'll concentrate on the former but for many the Festival is as much about puzzling races like the County Hurdle and the Grand Annual Chase.

On Tuesday, there are four Grade 1 entries and while the traditional "roar" from 60,000 spectators when the runners leave the start for the first will be absent, that doesn't mean the racing won't be of the highest level.

The ground currently is Good to Soft and that will be a lot quicker than many of these have raced on this winter so that's a variable to put into calculations.

There's also the small matter of the traditional Anglo-Irish rivalry - last year, the Irish cleaned up aided by Willie Mullins and the now-disgraced Gordon Elliott. Mullins will being his powerful squadron over and will be expecting to win a good number of the races.

The Supreme Novices Hurdle over 3200m is the championship race for the speedier novice hurdlers. 18 have been entered and favourite from the Mullins yard is APPRECIATE IT. He won the Irish equivalent of this at Leopardstown at the beginning of February but this is as fast ground as he has ever raced on and I just wonder if something will have too much speed for him and get him into trouble. The top English challenger looks to be the unbeaten METIER who hacked up in the Tolworth in January in deep mud - again, the ground is the query for me. 

BALLYADAM and BLUE LORD chased home APPRECIATE IT at Leopardstown and I think BLUE LORD may be the surprise package at 10s or bigger. He won on decent ground in France and I just wonder if he and BALLYADAM will be the two fighting up the hill.

12 have been entered for the Racing Post Arkle, the championship race for the speedier young novice chasers, They are go like the clappers here and jumping will be tested. While in most normal years, ALLMANKIND would be a real contender, he looks to have had the misfortune to bump into at least one and perhaps two really good ones. SHISKIN has been the long term favourite for this since winning the Supreme last year and he's done little wrong in his chases. This is much more of a test but if his jumping holds up, he has too much speed for this lot. ENERGUMEME won the Irish equivalent in style last time and could be something special - I just wonder how he will enjoy the quicker ground.

12 go in the Mares Hurdle over 4000m, a relatively new race but one which has quickly established itself as a championship for the mares wishing to avoid the geldings. There are some very good mares going in the Champion Hurdle of which more anon. To this observer, three dominate - this may be too short for ROKSANA on the ground and while I respect CONCERTISTA from Team Mullins, I'm going to offer DAME DE CAMPAGNIE as an alternative. She wasn't enjoying it when getting hampered at Sandown in the mud last time and the better ground will help her and she's a course and distance winner which counts for a lot.

14 go in the Champion Hurdle over 3200m which is what it says. Last year's winner EPATANTE hasn't had the best of preparations being turned over in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton and making an uncharacteristic mistake three out. She looks opposable. HONEYSUCKLE won the Mares Hurdle last year and this season won the Hatton's Grace before a convincing performance in the Irish Champion Hurdle. A repeat of that wins this and we know quicker ground won't bother her but will she have the speed for this? My idea of the winner is GOSHEN who was clear when blundering away Jamie Moore in the Triumph last year. After a lacklustre return, GOSHEN came back and was an impressive winner of the Kingwell at Wincanton. In itself, that doesn't make him the Champion Hurdle winner but he's always looked a natural. MY idea of a knocking each way bet at 16s is SILVER STREAK who beat EPATANTE at Kempton at Christmas and previously was a close second in the Bula when probably not helped by the omission of hurdles due to a low sun and scrimmaging as the field bypassed the last two. He was sixth in the Champion last year but the ground was a lot softer and I think the quicker the ground the better his chances. 

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News today of two notable withdrawals from Cheltenham next week - ENERGUMENE has been taken out of the Arkle leaving SHISKIN at 1/2 for the championship novice chase for the speedier types. Looking further ahead, THYNE HILL, a big fancy for the Stayers Hurdle, has suffered a slight injury and won't run.

Moving on to Wednesday and 19 have been entered for the Ballymore Hurdle for the middle distance novices over 4000m. With both BOB OLINGER and APPRECIATE IT in the Supreme the previous day, the betting for this may well get a big shake up on Sunday. BRAVEMANSGAME has looked very good and especially so when winning the Challow at Newbury just after Christmas. GALLIARD DU MESNIL (as you might expect a French bred) looks the best of the Irish and has obvious claims but the shape of this race will depend a lot on which option some of the top hurdlers are allocated.

The Brown Advisory Novices Chase over 4800m is the Championship race for the staying novices. MONKFISH looks dominant in this division and won both the credential Grade 1 Irish events at Leopardstown without much fuss. There doesn't look a single strong British challenger and on figures MONKFISH has 10 lbs in hand. 

18 have been left in the Champion Bumper over 3200m. A Bumper is , as we know, a term for a flat race run under national hunt rules. The Irish often have a strong hand and if you ever see an easier winner then KILCRUIT in the Grade 1 Bumper at the Dublin Racing festival, let me know. SIR GERHARD looks the obvious rival.

13 stand in the day's feature, the Champion Chase over 3200m for the speed ball fencers. CHACUN POUR SOI is the up and coming horse from Ireland and he demolished a decent field at Leopardstown last time. He's unproven at Cheltenham and that looks the big question. The roof would have been lifted off the stand by the crowd were there a) a crowd and b) if ALTIOR could regain his title. The fact is, ALTIOR was decisively beaten by NUBE NEGRA at Kempton and I think the latter has a huge chance. My old mate FIRST FLOW looks a knocking each way bet at 14s but I think NUBE NEGRA at 8s also looks a solid bet. 

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On to Thursday which used to be a slightly quieter day but has now been built up to be aa strong as the other three days at Cheltenham.

Three Grade 1 events starting with the Marsh Novices Chase over 4000m for the mid-range novice chasers. This has become a really strong race in recent years and this year features the new Irish superstar ENVOI ALLEN. He's unbeaten in eleven jumps races and won the Ballymore last year. He was rumoured to be a great jumper or "lepper" as the Irish term it and his three chase wins have all been hugely impressive. In the old days, he'd have either had to take on SHISKIN at 3200m or MONKFISH at 4800m but this is perfect for him and on all known form he wins. I do think SHAN BLUE is a serious opponent - he umped superbly on decent ground earlier in the season and was very impressive at Kempton over Christmas. I thought he got a bit bogged down in the mud at Sandown in the Scilly Isles last time and back on some better ground, he's going to give ENVOI ALLEN a race.

The Ryanair is the equivalent race for the older chasers and looks wide open. Last year, MIN beat SAINT CALVADOS in a thrilling finish - MIN is 6/1 and SAINT CALVADOS at 9/1 and I much prefer the latter who ran well in the King George before tiring two out and I can forgive that. Willie Mullins also has ALLAHO and MELON and has left in CHACUN POUR SOI in case he doesn't go for the Champion Chase. DRASHEL DASHER did me a huge favour at Ascot last time but I can't see it on this different track and quicker ground. To be honest, in quality terms, this could well be the race of the week.

The World Hurdle is the Championship race for the staying hurdlers over 4800m and the favourite is PAISLEY PARK but he was well held in this last year and the winner, LISNAGAR OSCAR, is 8/1. Without being unkind, with the absence of THYNE HILL, this race looks a notch below top quality. ROKSANA won the Mares Hurdle in 2019 and was fourth last year - they moved her up to this trip at Ascot and she just didn't quite get home in the mid winter mud. On better ground, I think she has a big chance and this is a race where the Irish aren't perhaps as powerful - both FLOORING PORTER and SIRE DU BERLAIS look to have it to find.

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Day Four is the final day at Cheltenham and we've got the first entries through.

Just 12 have been entered for the Triumph Hurdle for the juvenile (4-y-o) novice hurdlers - this is symptomatic of something I will touch on a lot in the next few threads. Brexit has led to new rules and regulations regarding the transportation of horses and to bring a horse from Ireland or France to the UK now costs 650 euro so unless your horse has a real chance why pay the money? I suspect we will see much smaller fields this week as there will be fewer Irish and French horses.

To be fair, the weakness in the Triumph field is the home contingent - why? It's a very tough race for 4-y-o and often ruins horses - GOSHEN may be a notable exception. It's a race which, like the Derby on the flat, can bottom a horse and end its career so trainers and owners aren't keen. If I had to take a race out of the Cheltenham schedule, I'd take out the Triumph. Anyway, TRITONIC looks the main home prospect and he was very good at Kempton but a flat track looks to play to his strengths and my tentative selection would be QUILIXIOS.

The Albert Bartlett is the championship race for the staying novice hurdlers. It's often a very good race and this year's renewal looks very competitive. The home challenge is led by Paul Nicholls who saddles both BARBADOS BUCKS and THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE but there's the usual strong Irish challenge arguably led by STATLER from the Mullins yard and FAKIERA from the yard now in the care of Denise Foster.

The Blue Riband of National Hunt racing in the UK is the Cheltenham Gold Cup over 5200m. It carries a first prize of £264,000 which is about the same as the Auckland Cup. The winner of the race in 2019 and 2020, AL BOUM PHOTO, comes here as favourite but has had just the one run winning a little race at Tramore on New Year's Day. It's an incredibly light campaign but it seems to work and he comes here top rated and with question marks over most of his rivals. A PLUS TARD won arguably the best Irish chase this season, the Savils at Leopardstown over Christmas. That day he beat KEMBOY who went on to win the Irish Gold Cup in February but has never run to his best at Cheltenham.

CHAMP won the staying novices event last year and comes here off a fine re-appearance over 3200m at Newbury. ROYALE PAGAILLE has been left in this rather than the 6400m chase but I think it'll all happen too quick for him and it may be 2018 winner NATIVE RIVER maight outrun his current odds of 14/1. FRODON won the King George but it's a big ask to see him winning this.

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4 hours ago, stodge said:

Day Four is the final day at Cheltenham and we've got the first entries through.

Just 12 have been entered for the Triumph Hurdle for the juvenile (4-y-o) novice hurdlers - this is symptomatic of something I will touch on a lot in the next few threads. Brexit has led to new rules and regulations regarding the transportation of horses and to bring a horse from Ireland or France to the UK now costs 650 euro so unless your horse has a real chance why pay the money? I suspect we will see much smaller fields this week as there will be fewer Irish and French horses.

To be fair, the weakness in the Triumph field is the home contingent - why? It's a very tough race for 4-y-o and often ruins horses - GOSHEN may be a notable exception. It's a race which, like the Derby on the flat, can bottom a horse and end its career so trainers and owners aren't keen. If I had to take a race out of the Cheltenham schedule, I'd take out the Triumph. Anyway, TRITONIC looks the main home prospect and he was very good at Kempton but a flat track looks to play to his strengths and my tentative selection would be QUILIXIOS.

The Albert Bartlett is the championship race for the staying novice hurdlers. It's often a very good race and this year's renewal looks very competitive. The home challenge is led by Paul Nicholls who saddles both BARBADOS BUCKS and THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE but there's the usual strong Irish challenge arguably led by STATLER from the Mullins yard and FAKIERA from the yard now in the care of Denise Foster.

The Blue Riband of National Hunt racing in the UK is the Cheltenham Gold Cup over 5200m. It carries a first prize of £264,000 which is about the same as the Auckland Cup. The winner of the race in 2019 and 2020, AL BOUM PHOTO, comes here as favourite but has had just the one run winning a little race at Tramore on New Year's Day. It's an incredibly light campaign but it seems to work and he comes here top rated and with question marks over most of his rivals. A PLUS TARD won arguably the best Irish chase this season, the Savils at Leopardstown over Christmas. That day he beat KEMBOY who went on to win the Irish Gold Cup in February but has never run to his best at Cheltenham.

CHAMP won the staying novices event last year and comes here off a fine re-appearance over 3200m at Newbury. ROYALE PAGAILLE has been left in this rather than the 6400m chase but I think it'll all happen too quick for him and it may be 2018 winner NATIVE RIVER maight outrun his current odds of 14/1. FRODON won the King George but it's a big ask to see him winning this.

That Fred Winter 4 yo handicap diverts some of those field fillers from Triumph nowdays.  Been some tough customers win it over the years Tiger Roll , Zarkander and Celestial Halo who I think ran in a Doncaster St Leger .

The first race looks lighter on number that usual, I remember huge fields in that back in day . 

Might have a few bucks each way Vintage Clouds in Ultima , dropping in ratings , not getting any younger but has gone well in this race in past , looks around the 16s mark ew 1 to 4 in UK if 16 stand ground  . Foster runner in it might improve for wind surgery and won at festival last year . 

Good Luck on the punt Stodge .

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20 hours ago, Red Rum said:

That Fred Winter 4 yo handicap diverts some of those field fillers from Triumph nowdays.  Been some tough customers win it over the years Tiger Roll , Zarkander and Celestial Halo who I think ran in a Doncaster St Leger .

The first race looks lighter on number that usual, I remember huge fields in that back in day . 

Might have a few bucks each way Vintage Clouds in Ultima , dropping in ratings , not getting any younger but has gone well in this race in past , looks around the 16s mark ew 1 to 4 in UK if 16 stand ground  . Foster runner in it might improve for wind surgery and won at festival last year . 

Good Luck on the punt Stodge .

Perhaps but both the championship novice hurdles have very small fields - remember it's 650 euro to send a horse over and the Owner can't attend.

VINTAGE CLOUDS - a good horse but I can't help but think his best days are behind him. First time cheekpieces might help but they're going to have to. Currently 16 but if one comes out you're down to 1-2-3 and it doesn't look anywhere near as interesting.

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Day One of Cheltenham tomorrow - they had nearly half an inch (10 mm) of rain overnight which was unexpected and has pushed the ground back to Soft, Good to Soft in places. To be fair, they haven't raced on the course since mid December with the last two meetings abandoned so the ground should be pretty fresh.

The opening Grade 1 is the Supreme Novices Hurdle over 3200m - just eight run which is an incredibly small field and relates to the Brexit issues I've mentioned already. APPRECIATE IT has been backed into odds on favourite on the basis the slower ground will help and he has the dominant Irish form. On the figures, he's 5 lbs ahead of these and beat BALLYADAM and BLUE LORD well enough at Leopardstown. I wasn't that taken with his performance - I thought he won in spite of everything and he's not value for me at 10/11. Had the ground been faster, I'd have fancied BALLYADAM strongly but instead I'm rowing in with METIER to give the home team an early lead in the Prestbury Cup.

The Arkle over 3200m is the Championship for the speedy novice chasers. Just six go to post and with ENERGUMENE a late scratching, SHISKIN is a solid 1/2 chance and it's not a race in which I want to play. As we say, there are fools, damn fools and those who back odds on in novice chases. ALLMANKIND is a solid second best at 9/2 and I'm having a small bet as an interest but it's more in hope than expectation.

The Champion Hurdle is the feature of the day - HONEYSUCKLE has been backed in to 7/4 favourite and if you think she'll get an unchallenged lead and can saunter home in her own time, I've a bridge to sell you. EPATANTE isn't perhaps the force she was last year and for all GOSHEN did it well at Wincanton last time, he beat nothing and his price reflects potential rather than achievement. The vlaue has probably gone but I fancy SHARJAH with the change in ground conditions - he's incredibly consistent and I'm on each way at 10s for all he was 14s a day or so ago. The ground has gone against SILVER STREAK who was my earlier choice at a price. ABRACADABRAS was second to SHISKIN in the Supreme last year and started well as a hurdler winning the Morgiana but his last two efforts at Leopardstown have been poor.

The Mares Hurdle over 4000m looks between CONCERTISTA and ROKSANA and I think the rain is a godsend for the latter and I'm cautiously optimistic.

My betting book for Day 1 as follows:

1.20: Supreme Novices Hurdle: METIER (£10 win, SP)

1.55: Arkle Novices Chase: ALLMANKIND (£5 win, SP)

2.30: Handicap - ALNADAM (£5 each way @ 14s)

3.05: Champion Hurdle - SHARJAH (£10 each way @10s)

3.40: Mares Hurdle - ROKSANA (£20 win @4s)

4.15: Handicap: no bet

4.50: Handicap: REMASTERED (£5 each way @12s)

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Two for the price of one as the final declarations are through for Wednesday. Obviously, the first day will provide a lot of clues as to how the ground is actually riding, which stables look to be in form and which are struggling and so on but at this stage:

The opening Ballymore Novices Hurdle over 4200m has just seven runners. BOB OLINGER, GALLIARD DU MESNIL and BRAVEMANSGAME are 10 lbs ahead of the others on the ratings but are very closely matched. I prefer BRAVEMANSGAME who was impressive at Newbury and the way his trainer, Paul Nicholls, talks about him in the same breath as some of his champions just makes me think we haven't seen the best of him yet.

Just six go in the Brown Advisory Chase for the staying novices over 4800m. MONKFISH has frightened off most of the opposition and at 1/2 looks bombproof. I won't back him and ECLAT DE RIRE might be a sporting alternative.

The big news today was the late scratching of ALTIOR from the Champion Chase - that left 10 runners and CHACUN POUR SOI at 5/6. That's another odds-on favourite I'll be opposing as I think NUBE NEGRA could be very good value at 8s.

The Champion Bumper is one of those races that doesn't go to form as often as you think it should. KILCRUIT was the most impressive winner of any race I've seen in a very long time but that race at Leopardstown fell apart in a race this won't. Stable mate SIR GERHARD is the obvious rival but I'm wary of getting involved in the race.

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The Elliot photograph is nothing more than a PC bashing exercise done to promote the anti racing initiative. The horse was dead. It didn’t have feelings at that stage and horses have people sit on them on a continuous basis. What’s the real fuss. 
 

I know Katirino intimately. Owned by a great mate Robert Waley Cohen. That was a real family affair with Sam riding it. Strange rule currently stopping amateur riders (Sam is one) at this years Cheltenham. Because they aren’t either pros or Olympians, they are not classified as elite sportsman. So can’t ride due to COVID-19.

sam has ridden more winners over the Grand National than any others

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22 minutes ago, Berri said:

The Elliot photograph is nothing more than a PC bashing exercise done to promote the anti racing initiative. The horse was dead. It didn’t have feelings at that stage and horses have people sit on them on a continuous basis. What’s the real fuss. 
 

I know Katirino intimately. Owned by a great mate Robert Waley Cohen. That was a real family affair with Sam riding it. Strange rule currently stopping amateur riders (Sam is one) at this years Cheltenham. Because they aren’t either pros or Olympians, they are not classified as elite sportsman. So can’t ride due to COVID-19.

sam has ridden more winners over the Grand National than any others

Katerino record over the big fences amazing,  unseated at chair in 2003  GN , then those three runs in the Hunter 1/30 1/30 and 2/19 . Some jumper . 

Won't be Gone Long was another Robert Waley Cohen staying chaser I used to like , a regular in the decent handicaps . 

 

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2 hours ago, stodge said:

Day One of Cheltenham tomorrow - they had nearly half an inch (10 mm) of rain overnight which was unexpected and has pushed the ground back to Soft, Good to Soft in places. To be fair, they haven't raced on the course since mid December with the last two meetings abandoned so the ground should be pretty fresh.

The opening Grade 1 is the Supreme Novices Hurdle over 3200m - just eight run which is an incredibly small field and relates to the Brexit issues I've mentioned already. APPRECIATE IT has been backed into odds on favourite on the basis the slower ground will help and he has the dominant Irish form. On the figures, he's 5 lbs ahead of these and beat BALLYADAM and BLUE LORD well enough at Leopardstown. I wasn't that taken with his performance - I thought he won in spite of everything and he's not value for me at 10/11. Had the ground been faster, I'd have fancied BALLYADAM strongly but instead I'm rowing in with METIER to give the home team an early lead in the Prestbury Cup.

The Arkle over 3200m is the Championship for the speedy novice chasers. Just six go to post and with ENERGUMENE a late scratching, SHISKIN is a solid 1/2 chance and it's not a race in which I want to play. As we say, there are fools, damn fools and those who back odds on in novice chases. ALLMANKIND is a solid second best at 9/2 and I'm having a small bet as an interest but it's more in hope than expectation.

The Champion Hurdle is the feature of the day - HONEYSUCKLE has been backed in to 7/4 favourite and if you think she'll get an unchallenged lead and can saunter home in her own time, I've a bridge to sell you. EPATANTE isn't perhaps the force she was last year and for all GOSHEN did it well at Wincanton last time, he beat nothing and his price reflects potential rather than achievement. The vlaue has probably gone but I fancy SHARJAH with the change in ground conditions - he's incredibly consistent and I'm on each way at 10s for all he was 14s a day or so ago. The ground has gone against SILVER STREAK who was my earlier choice at a price. ABRACADABRAS was second to SHISKIN in the Supreme last year and started well as a hurdler winning the Morgiana but his last two efforts at Leopardstown have been poor.

The Mares Hurdle over 4000m looks between CONCERTISTA and ROKSANA and I think the rain is a godsend for the latter and I'm cautiously optimistic.

My betting book for Day 1 as follows:

1.20: Supreme Novices Hurdle: METIER (£10 win, SP)

1.55: Arkle Novices Chase: ALLMANKIND (£5 win, SP)

2.30: Handicap - ALNADAM (£5 each way @ 14s)

3.05: Champion Hurdle - SHARJAH (£10 each way @10s)

3.40: Mares Hurdle - ROKSANA (£20 win @4s)

4.15: Handicap: no bet

4.50: Handicap: REMASTERED (£5 each way @12s)

That Allmankind will blaze a trail as usual Stodge , I see Bill Gredley had Stepney Causeway blaze round at Stratford today like Allmankind does  to lead in to today .Of course Stepney Causeway has to win at Stratford it's the East End double .

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6 hours ago, Red Rum said:

Katerino record over the big fences amazing,  unseated at chair in 2003  GN , then those three runs in the Hunter 1/30 1/30 and 2/19 . Some jumper . 

Won't be Gone Long was another Robert Waley Cohen staying chaser I used to like , a regular in the decent handicaps . 

 

I think you mean Long Run.Long-Run-Article.pdfHave a read...

Long-Run-Article.pdf

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