RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
stodge

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5 hours ago, stodge said:

A huge weekend up here with classic action in both the UK and France.

Starting on Epsom Downs where the ground is Good in advance of the Derby and Oaks which are being held on the same afternoon for the first time.

As we know, both are run over the unique switchback roller coaster of a track that is Epsom with the rise from the start climbing the height of Nelson's Column and then a sharp descent down the hill into the famous Tattenham Corner and a 700m run home with a rise in the final 100m.

The Derby for the colts (fillies can run as well but not geldings) has 16 runners and looks a wide open heat. Favourite was ENGLISH KING, who looked very good winning the Trial at Lingfield (the race ANTHONY VAN DYCK won in 2019) but he's got a terrible draw from stall 1 and for a horse setting to make the running or be close to the pace this is a real problem. He has Frankie Dettori but he'll need luck to get a position without expending too much energy. There are real questions over the value of his Lingfield form with the runner up BERKSHIRE ROCCO well held by Irish Derby winner SANTIAGO at Ascot.

KAMEKO won the 2000 Guineas and in most years that would be enough for him to be favourite but there are doubts over the form of the Newmarket classic and there are real questions in KAMEKO's breeding as to whether he will get 2400m. I think 2000m is his limit and he could well be running on empty in the final furlong. 

Aidan O'Brien has a large entry but it's hard to be enthusiastic about his 3-y-o middle distance colts for all he dominated the Irish classic last weekend (there were no UK or French runners permitted).  Hampton Court winner RUSSIAN EMPEROR has been punted into 5/1 second favourite and he's got a better draw than MOGUL but it's hugely significant Ryan Moore has opted for the latter. MOGUL was disappointing behind PYLEDRIVER in the King Edward VII but he looked as though the race would bring him on a lot physically. He's long been regarded at Ballydoyle as the Derby horse but he's drawn stall two and even at 15/2 I'm not tempted.

VATICAN CITY is lightly raced but ran a blinder in defeat to SISKIN in the Irish 2000 Guineas. Solid form but he's out of a dam who was a sprinter and her progeny have all raced at around a mile so there are real stamina doubts there as well.

The draw hasn't been kind to PYLEDRIVER wither but we know he sees out the 2400m from his win at Ascot. It would be a huge story if he won but I can't see it. HIGHLAND CHIEF has been punted but he won a handicap on soft ground at Ascot so this would be a huge step up.

The Stodge tenner each way in a race I don't find easy to read has gone on MOHICAN HEIGHTS at 20/1. He won both his starts as a juvenile and was a fair third on re-appearance to PYLEDRIVER at Ascot. I'm not sure his draw is ideal but I do think he'll see out the trip and could be running on from the rear when others are running on fumes. 

I'll be honest - I doubt this is a vintage renewal under the circumstances.

The Oaks looks a very different proposition. Just 8 runners and I think only three matter. LOVE is favourite having been a convincing winner of the English 1000 Guineas. She's a full sister to Peach Tree and Flattering who were both well beaten in the Oaks but ran well over middle distances so I've every confidence LOVE will see out the trip. FRANKLY DARLING beat ENNISTYMON in the Ribblesdale and for all the winner won it well, I thought the runner up was closing at the line and the difference in prices (7/4 for FRANKLY DARLING and 5/1 for ENNISTYMON) doesn't make any sense. 

I'm not playing in the race - I hope LOVE turns out to be the clear best middle distance filly and she will be my selection.

Two Group 1 races at Belmont tomorrow evening - the Metropolitan Handicap over 1600m on the Dirt has 8 runners and I fancy MCKINZIE to return to top form. The Manhattan Stakes over 2000m on the turf looks wide open - INSTILLED REGARD won last time and might be the one.

Interesting race that Linfield Derby trial, had a few good days at Leafy Lingfield  over the years . Saw Cauthen win on Legal Bid for Sir Henry on a lovely spring day back in 80s . Had a run of producing Derby winners in 80s . 

Nevis who won the race a few years back ended up in the  Pitman Stable  , had couple run rounds last year in South Island and Kilimanjaro still in training in OZ , think Maher got it for hurdling  now .

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38 minutes ago, Tauhei Notts said:

The Oaks and the Derby.  Galileo might be one of the best stallions to stand in the Northern Hemisphere.  Serpentine ran them ragged.

Hard to know what the quality was like behind the winner, the first three in the running held those places the entire trip which is very unusual in any race let alone a Derby. If that happened in a race here everyone would be criticising the jockeys on the favs.

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22 hours ago, Red Rum said:

Interesting race that Linfield Derby trial, had a few good days at Leafy Lingfield  over the years . Saw Cauthen win on Legal Bid for Sir Henry on a lovely spring day back in 80s . Had a run of producing Derby winners in 80s . 

Nevis who won the race a few years back ended up in the  Pitman Stable  , had couple run rounds last year in South Island and Kilimanjaro still in training in OZ , think Maher got it for hurdling  now .

Love wins by 9 lengths at odds on.....either she is very good or the opposition wasn’t up to much. Amazing price for O’Brien’s Serpentine...

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1 hour ago, Ohokaman said:

Love wins by 9 lengths at odds on.....either she is very good or the opposition wasn’t up to much. Amazing price for O’Brien’s Serpentine...

Brother to Serpentine in at Sandown on Wednesday Yulong Captain , he's won his last two.  I think they might try looking in the clinical waste for the Captains balls to glue them back if Serpentine turns out a champion . Granddam has produced some decent horses .

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1 hour ago, Ohokaman said:

Love wins by 9 lengths at odds on.....either she is very good or the opposition wasn’t up to much. Amazing price for O’Brien’s Serpentine...

Race after Oaks albeit a group 3 that on pace runners played there own game the 1 2 3 were 4 lengths plus behind Love in Guineas , way she picked them up today  I'd have her over the Derby winner at this stage .

Alpha Star out the Harrington yard murdered some Guineas runners at Royal Ascot and put 3 lengths on Santiago Irish Derby winner  as a 2 year old , although was beaten by Love on debut . She is favorite for French Oaks tonight  .

 

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43 minutes ago, Ohokaman said:

Only won a maiden the week before, then does this....??!  Doesn’t say much for the beaten brigade.....

 

Shades of Sovereign in last year's Irish Derby , out on the lead at big odds  and good enough to stick on . Did lead all the way in maiden win but won't get that rope again .

Went out well down the betting order on debut , Persia the stable mate who won it looks no world beater  , Serpentine's  seasonal debut just OK.  Doubt any of that field would see what way the first three in betting tonight in Eclipse went .

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3 hours ago, Ohokaman said:

Only won a maiden the week before, then does this....??!  Doesn’t say much for the beaten brigade.....

 

Your not comparing a maiden staying race at The Curragh with a Te Rapa maiden are you Barry?Surely not!😀

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Good to see plenty of comment on Saturday's extraordinary events at Epsom Downs.

Starting with the Derby,  I won't bother posting a link to the race as other people have. I can't recall if Reference Point made every yard in his Derby or if Slip Anchor did the same but in recent years it hasn't happened. It's extraordinary to think SERPENTINE won a maiden seven days before winning the Derby which makes a nonsense of all the usual trials and form lines. 

It was a brilliant tactical ride from Emmet McNamara but to what extent was he gifted the race by the other riders? Perhaps they had forgotten SERPENTINE's dam had been an Oaks runner up so he wasn't going to stop though he was weakening in the final 200m (understandably). I thought he handled the Hill and Tattenham Corner superbly and that as much as anything else enabled the horse to skip 12-15 lengths ahead with 600m to go. 

From a form standpoint, it could be a fluke or he could be a seriously good horse in a mediocre crop. Ordinarily, he'd head for The Curragh for the Irish Derby but that can't happen this year so where next? The King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes means taking on his elders but he'll be getting a lot of weight and perhaps he'll take the staying route so the Voltigeur at York before the Leger at Doncaster and perhaps a tilt at the Arc. Could he be a Cup horse next year? 

As for the others, KHALIFA SAT was second throughout and did well to hoid on as did AMHRAN NA BHFIANH who rallied back into third on the post. After them, the first five in the betting market occupied the next five places split by less than three lengths with KAMEKO, ENGLISH KING, MOGUL, RUSSIAN EMPEROR and VATICAN KING all in a heap suggesting there's not much between them as the pre-race hype suggested and that none of them are superstars.

Aidan O'Brien did of course win with another long priced horse in Wings of Eagles in 2017 and he was retired after a narrow defeat at The Curragh so we just don't know. It was O'Brien's eighth win in the race which is a modern record.

As for the Oaks, an even wider margin winner in a slightly faster run race as LOVE powered home by nine lengths. There was so much to like about this performance and for all the tv pundits wanted her to win the Triple Crown at Doncaster, the Leger is an afterthought these days and I think we saw the Arc winner on Saturday. LOVE won this with all the authority ENABLE showed back in 2017 and then some. I look forward to her taking on the colts and perhaps the older horses down the road and on this performance she's have probably beaten the colts on Saturday.

ENNISTYMON ran another huge race and if LOVE sidesteps the Irish Oaks, team O'Brien look to have a ready alternative. My guess is LOVE will head for the Yorkshire Oaks and then the Arc via the Vermeille. I'm also sure FRANKLY DARLING will be back at her best on a more galloping track and she could give LOVE more of a test at York but it's hard to see her reversing that kind of deficit.

The ground at Epsom was good and fast times (and perhaps front runners) were aided by a tailwind up the straight.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_utIhKxtcDc

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Before offering the Sunday review, a quick look forward to the action up here in the coming few days.

The Newmarket July Festival starts on Thursday and runs to Saturday. It has two Group 1 features - the Falmouth for the fillies and mares over 1600m and the big July Cup over 1200m on Saturday.

That's not to say there isn't a strong set of supporting races at both Group 2 level. 

On Thursday the Group 2 July Stakes for the juveniles has 10 runners. QAADER was second to the 150/1 NANDO PERRADO in the Coventry while TACTICAL won the 1000m Windsor Castle. Into the mix comes SWISS ACE from the all-conquering Aidan O'Brien yard. He won a 1000m maiden on debut at Tipperary and falls into the "could be anything" category. I like QAADER because at Ascot he was on the wrong side of the course and had too much to do late on.

The Princess of Wales's Stakes is over 2400m. Eight go and a number of these have to come back from some moderate efforts last time including COMMUNIQUE (who won this last year), DESERT ENCOUNTER and OLD PERSIAN who was frankly dismal in the Grand Prix de Saint Cloud. Charlie Appleby is trying cheek pieces so he's of interest. ALOUNAK ran a blinder in the Hardwicke and must be considered. The two that interest me are both fillies - ENBIHAAR had a stellar 3-y-o campaign as a tough staying filly and ended up running third to Oaks winner ANAPURNA in the Royallieu on ground which probably didn't suit. ANTONIA DE VEGA had a quiet 3-y-o campaign but started this season with a nice win at Pontefract. She's got to find a fair bit against these but with eight runners we can play the each way shark and 9s is a decent price.

Newmarket isn't the only game in town on Thursday with York staging its belated opening day and a race which is normally a Derby trial, the Dante, taking place five days AFTER the Derby. That's 2020 for you and I don't really understand why they feel they need to run the race given we are experiencing a glut of quality and a dearth of moderate races. Just six go and favourite is HIGHEST GROUND who dished out a beating to Waldgeist's brother WALDKOENIG at Haydock a fortnight ago. It's solid form but he's taken on by CORMORANT who beat RUSSIAN EMPEROR in the Derby Trial at Leopardstown and that's a good race most years. 

It's rare Frankie Dettori swerves Newmarket and even rarer he swerves it to go to ride a 10/1 shot but ENCIPHER is that horse and he was a close second to AL MADHAR at Newbury. That's a way below the form of others in the field but the jockey booking makes me sit up and take note.

Nine have been entered for Friday's Falmouth at Newmarket over 1600m. TEREBELLUM ran a huge race in the Queen Anne against the colts and back among her own gender has a huge chance. NAZEEF won the Group 2 for the fillies and mares at Ascot and to be honest looks to have it on against TEREBELLUM. ONE MASTER brings Group 1 form to the table - she was second in this last year and won the Foret at Longchamp. She was sixth to HELLO YOUMZAIN in the Diamond Jubilee and while 1200m is clearly too short, 1600m may be far enough but if they dawdle, she will be the one who will be coming home best.

There are three 3-y-o entered including PEACEFUL who won the Irish 1000 Guineas before running a close third to the horse she beat into second place that day, FANCY BLUE, in the Diane last Sunday. I'd be surprised if she backs up so quickly but getting the weight she does would put her in this.

15 have been entered for Saturday's July Cup for which Commonwealth Cup winner GOLDEN HORDE is 5/2 favourite with the winner, third and fourth, HELLO YOUMZAIN, SCEPTICAL and KHAADEM the next three in the market. Sunday sees the Jean Prat at Deauville for the 3-y-o over 1400m. French juvenile star EARTHLIGHT is missing the race but among 29 entries are PINATUBO who I think will love the trip and the track.

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Before I dish up some nonsense on Friday's racing, I thought I'd remind you all of my thoughts on the Jockey Club from last week.

OCEAN ATLANTIQUE is the mount of Pierre Charles Boudot and bolted up in a Listed race last time. This is a big jump in class but from the yard of master trainer Andre Fabre that's less of a concern. THE SUMMIT was second to VICTOR LUDORUM in the Poulains and is a huge each way price at 22/1. However, I think this race is heading across La Manche or the English Channel courtesy of MISHRIF who sidestepped Epsom for this and was an impressive winner of the Listed Newmarket Stakes over 2000m beating VOLKAN STAR who followed up last weekend. I've backed him at 10s against the locals.

I mean, I give you the winner AND the second - what more can I do? 

Anyway, enjoy the race but I doubt you'll enjoy it as much as I did.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZKPlVoARc0

With Mrs Stodge's steak and champagne supper secure, I thought all that had to happen was for ALPINE STAR to follow up in the Diane.  Well, as the saying goes "the best laid plans" - to be fair, I thought she got a decent ride from Pasquier but whether it was the trip or the ground she just ran out of steam in the final 100m and this enabled Irish 1000 Guineas runner up FANCY BLUE to nick the race on the stick. The Irish 1000 Guineas winner PEACEFUL was third and it confirms the widely-held view that, LOVE apart, the 3-y-o fillies are nothing special so far. I suspect ALPINE STAR will come back to 1600m next time and I wonder if they may be tempted to run her against the colts in the Sussex.

FANCY BLUE was young Donnacha O'Brien's first classic winner as a trainer but we can be certain it won't be the last.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sL9hXfvHTR0

Just a quick mention of Saturday's big races at Belmont. VEKOMA put up a gutsy performance to win the Metropolitan Handicap and could be a serious player in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile. MCKINZIE was disappointing and while CODE OF HONOR, the 2019 Kentucky Derby runner up, travelled into the race well, he just couldn't quicken against these specialist milers. I think he'll go back up to 2000m.

Finally, INSTILLED REGARD just prevailed in a thrilling finish to the Manhattan over 2000m on the turf. I suspect the placed horses may fancy their chances of reversing the places at the Arlington Million in Chicago.

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A quick look at Friday's action at Newmarket which features the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes over 1600m.

Just seven run and TEREBELLUM remains a firm 11/8 favourite. On her Queen Anne run, she's going to take a lot of beating. MAGIC WAND backs up quickly after her fourth in last Sunday's Eclipse while NAZEEF won a Group 2 at Ascot and ONE MASTER is the Foret winner who was second in this last year. It's a decent heat but it's hard to look beyond TEREBELLUM.

The Duchess of Cambridge is a Group 2 for the juvenile fillies over 1200m. DANDELLA was hugely impressive in the Albany at Ascot winning by six lengths but the ground was soft and she is by Dandy man whose progeny love some juice in the ground. The Newmarket ground is currently Good. TIME SCALE was a strong winner on the other Newmarket track at the end of June and is on the upgrade. The interesting runner for me is MORE BEAUTIFUL who won convincingly on debut at Naas over 1000m. For those who don't know the Irish track, it's a stiff uphill finish and I was surprised to see Aidan O'Brien run her in the Queen Mary in which she got predictably outpaced. This is much more suitable and I rate her a big chance to overturn the locals.

 

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3 hours ago, stodge said:

Before I dish up some nonsense on Friday's racing, I thought I'd remind you all of my thoughts on the Jockey Club from last week.

OCEAN ATLANTIQUE is the mount of Pierre Charles Boudot and bolted up in a Listed race last time. This is a big jump in class but from the yard of master trainer Andre Fabre that's less of a concern. THE SUMMIT was second to VICTOR LUDORUM in the Poulains and is a huge each way price at 22/1. However, I think this race is heading across La Manche or the English Channel courtesy of MISHRIF who sidestepped Epsom for this and was an impressive winner of the Listed Newmarket Stakes over 2000m beating VOLKAN STAR who followed up last weekend. I've backed him at 10s against the locals.

I mean, I give you the winner AND the second - what more can I do? 

Anyway, enjoy the race but I doubt you'll enjoy it as much as I did.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZKPlVoARc0

With Mrs Stodge's steak and champagne supper secure, I thought all that had to happen was for ALPINE STAR to follow up in the Diane.  Well, as the saying goes "the best laid plans" - to be fair, I thought she got a decent ride from Pasquier but whether it was the trip or the ground she just ran out of steam in the final 100m and this enabled Irish 1000 Guineas runner up FANCY BLUE to nick the race on the stick. The Irish 1000 Guineas winner PEACEFUL was third and it confirms the widely-held view that, LOVE apart, the 3-y-o fillies are nothing special so far. I suspect ALPINE STAR will come back to 1600m next time and I wonder if they may be tempted to run her against the colts in the Sussex.

FANCY BLUE was young Donnacha O'Brien's first classic winner as a trainer but we can be certain it won't be the last.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sL9hXfvHTR0

Just a quick mention of Saturday's big races at Belmont. VEKOMA put up a gutsy performance to win the Metropolitan Handicap and could be a serious player in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile. MCKINZIE was disappointing and while CODE OF HONOR, the 2019 Kentucky Derby runner up, travelled into the race well, he just couldn't quicken against these specialist milers. I think he'll go back up to 2000m.

Finally, INSTILLED REGARD just prevailed in a thrilling finish to the Manhattan over 2000m on the turf. I suspect the placed horses may fancy their chances of reversing the places at the Arlington Million in Chicago.

The Summit off to Hong Kong now .Sign of the economics this season and not too much confidence of the classic generation taking on elders maybe .

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On 7/8/2020 at 11:19 PM, Red Rum said:

The Summit off to Hong Kong now .Sign of the economics this season and not too much confidence of the classic generation taking on elders maybe .

I think he could be an ideal horse for the Hong Kong circuit. It will be interesting to see what the longer term ramifications of covid-19 will be to Northern Hemisphere racing. The obvious initial thought is there is less money in the sport and will be for a while. Everyone is hurting and there are questions being asked as to whether the current leviathan structure is unsustainable. It could be we see a contraction in terms of horses, owners, trainers, jockeys and courses back to something more realistic over the next 3-5 years.

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A quieter weekend up here with the final day of the July Meeting at Newmarket the headline.

13 go in the July Cup over 1200m but the ground is on the soft side so this will make this more of a stamina test than is often the case. Joint top rated are the 3-y-o GOLDEN HORDE and the 4-y-o HELLO YOUMZAIN and these two won the key 1200m championship races at the Royal meeting. GOLDEN HORDE won the Commonwealth Cup for the 3-y-o and did it well while HELLO YOUMZAIN won the Diamond Jubilee.

Who to choose? The 3-y-o gets 6 lbs which is not insignificant but will it be enough? SCEPTICAL and KHAADEM were third and fourth in the Diamond Jubilee and THREAT was fifth in the Commonwealth Cup. I'm not convinced SCEPTICAL will get home and I'm doubtful as to the ground for the other two. None of the others make a lot of appeal in all honesty. I'm with HELLO YOUMZAIN and I'm on at 11/2.

The supporting Group 2 is the Superlative for the juveniles over 1400m. All ten have won and six are unbeaten so this could be a decent heat. HUDSON RIVER represents Aidan O'Brien and has been backed into favouritism. He won on debut over 1400m at The Curragh while John Gosden's SEVENTH KINGDOM won on 1400m at Doncaster on debut. MASTER OF THE SEAS won on soft ground on the Rowley MIle track. It's very difficult to tie up these form lines and make a call so it's a race to watch for the future for me.

At Ascot, 11 go in the Group 2 Summer Mile on ground described as Good. It doesn't look the strongest renewal and former Queen Anne winner LORD GLITTERS could be the one back down in grade. He's always performed well over the track. MARIE'S DIAMOND was third, MOHAATHER seventh and SKARDU eighth in this year's renewal of the Queen Anne and the former has obvious claims on that effort. 

Sunday's feature is the Jean Prat at Chantilly over 1400m. 11 go to post with the favourite PINATUBO who was third in the 2000 Guineas and second in the St James's Palace. To me, he's always looked a 1400m horse and he's going to take a lot of beating if he settles. MOLATHAM won the Jersey but this is Group 3 form, not Group 1. ALSOM was third in the Poulains but I'm more interested in TROPBEAU who was fourth in the Pouliches. She was very good over course and distance as a juvenile and I've backed her each way at 12s. 

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Okay, the weekend gives me a chance to catch up and I've got some serious unfinished business from last weekend in the form of the Eclipse at Sandown which saw the seasonal re-appearance of dual Arc winner ENABLE, still in training as a 6-y-o.

She went off favourite but was decisively held in second by GHAIYYATH who made most under William Buick. To be honest, the race went pretty much as might have been expected. Buick got to the front after 100m and had a fairly easy time of it in front. Sandown is a track which favours front runners but the key feature of last Sunday was a strong headwind up the finishing straight. I thought it wouldn't help GHAIYYATH but it didn't help the pursuers either who found it hard to make the ground into the teeth of the near gale. Buick had enjoyed the tailwind on the far side and still had plenty of petrol when quickening off the bottom of the hill.

GHAIYYATH won by two and a quarter lengths and he might well have won at 2400m but we'll find that out another day. Not many horses have won the Coronation Cup and the Eclipse in the same season - post race plans suggested the Juddmonte would be the preferred route. York is another track where front runners are favoured but not to the same extent as Sandown. ENABLE ran okay but, to be honest, I have some doubts. She won the Eclipse last year and this was an inferior performance by 5-7 lbs. Trainer John Gosden told anyone and everyone before the race she was "85% fit" and while he occasionally bluffs, this time he was on the money. Time makes fools of us all and while I'm not saying ENABLE is anyone's fool,  the question as to whether she has or can retain her full ability at age six is one I'm going to be musing on for a while.

No plans for her formally but I suspect the King George, Yorkshire Oaks and then the Arc. JAPAN ran a much better race in third and was a head behind ENABLE. I know they still rate him very highly at Ballydoyle but they have LOVE who is now many people's idea of the Arc winner (she was mine as soon as she passed the post at Epsom). 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T9bDK0Ke_r0

On a busy racing day, the feature supporting race at Sandown was the Henry II Stakes over 3200m and this went to DASHING WILLOUGHBY and I believe they are considering a trip to Flemington in November. At Haydock, the Group 2 Lancashire Oaks went to MANUELA DE VEGA who romped home unchallenged by five lengths. The field was decimated by scratchings after overnight rain left the ground soft so I'm not certain what to make of this. She's highly effective on wet turf so an autumn campaign might be on the cards.

The circus moved on to Newmarket for the July Festival. The opening day is Ladies' Day and to be honest it was fortunate there were no spectators as the rain was incessant for much of the afternoon and that turned the ground to Soft. The opening day feature was the Group 2 Princess of Wales and the rain was perfect for DAME MAILLOT who had been well behind ENBIHAAR on fast ground at Doncaster last autumn but reversed the form in style. She won the Pomone on heavy ground at Deauville last year so, rather like MANUELA DE VEGA above, she could be one for a wet autumn campaign. COMMUNIQUE made a bold effort to follow up last year's success in this race but came up against an improving filly on her ground.

At York, the Group 2 Dante saw HIGHEST GROUND, a well-touted type in Newmarket, start odds-on for this post-Derby "trial" but he just ran out of steam on the slow ground and had to give best to THUNDEROUS, a more experienced typical Mark Johnston type, gutsy and courageous in a battle. Both the front two ran with credit.

Friday saw a better day weather wise at Newmarket but the ground remained Soft for all they were racing on fresh turf.The feature Group 1 was the Falmouth Stakes for the fillies and mares and favourite for this year's renewal was TEREBELLUM who had run such a fine race behind CIRCUS MAXIMUS in the Queen Anne but this wasn't to be her day. There were two problems for jockey Frankie Dettori, first, the ground on which she was unproven and second, a field made up of finishers. He set the fractions and tried to quicken it from the front and get the others to get in each other's way but as TEREBELLUM hit the rising ground the petrol gauge was empty and she was swamped in the final 150m.

The race went to Duke of Cambridge winner NAZEEF who showed tremendous determination to battle up the hill and scramble home by a neck from the fast finishing BILLESDON BROOK who ran another fine race. Let's not forget she won the 1000 Guineas back in 2018 beating Laurens and while she's had a few moderate efforts since, she's always kept very good company and won the 2019 Sun Chariot so she owes her connections nothing and will be a smashing broodmare.

TEREBELLUM was third beaten two necks and perhaps the ground was the key or perhaps it was the nature of the field. She stays further and I wonder if connections will think about stepping her back up in trip though 2000m is a crowded market currently. ONE MASTER was slightly unlucky - he was beaten a length in total and fourth and had to switch around the winner which cost her momentum and ground at a critical time. Would she have beaten NAZEEF with a clear run? You can judge for yourselves:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_h9aSq0jZhM

DANDALLA had put up an eye-catching performance to win the Albany at Ascot but had to work much harder to win the Group 2 Duchess of Cambridge Stakes. She was reluctant to go in the stalls and while she got home here, I just wonder if the Ascot effort took more out of her than seemed the case. The placed horses, FEV ROVER and SANTOSHA, were coming off maiden race starts so the quality of the form is open to question but it's very early days for the juvenile fillies.

 

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20 hours ago, stodge said:

Okay, the weekend gives me a chance to catch up and I've got some serious unfinished business from last weekend in the form of the Eclipse at Sandown which saw the seasonal re-appearance of dual Arc winner ENABLE, still in training as a 6-y-o.

She went off favourite but was decisively held in second by GHAIYYATH who made most under William Buick. To be honest, the race went pretty much as might have been expected. Buick got to the front after 100m and had a fairly easy time of it in front. Sandown is a track which favours front runners but the key feature of last Sunday was a strong headwind up the finishing straight. I thought it wouldn't help GHAIYYATH but it didn't help the pursuers either who found it hard to make the ground into the teeth of the near gale. Buick had enjoyed the tailwind on the far side and still had plenty of petrol when quickening off the bottom of the hill.

GHAIYYATH won by two and a quarter lengths and he might well have won at 2400m but we'll find that out another day. Not many horses have won the Coronation Cup and the Eclipse in the same season - post race plans suggested the Juddmonte would be the preferred route. York is another track where front runners are favoured but not to the same extent as Sandown. ENABLE ran okay but, to be honest, I have some doubts. She won the Eclipse last year and this was an inferior performance by 5-7 lbs. Trainer John Gosden told anyone and everyone before the race she was "85% fit" and while he occasionally bluffs, this time he was on the money. Time makes fools of us all and while I'm not saying ENABLE is anyone's fool,  the question as to whether she has or can retain her full ability at age six is one I'm going to be musing on for a while.

No plans for her formally but I suspect the King George, Yorkshire Oaks and then the Arc. JAPAN ran a much better race in third and was a head behind ENABLE. I know they still rate him very highly at Ballydoyle but they have LOVE who is now many people's idea of the Arc winner (she was mine as soon as she passed the post at Epsom). 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T9bDK0Ke_r0

On a busy racing day, the feature supporting race at Sandown was the Henry II Stakes over 3200m and this went to DASHING WILLOUGHBY and I believe they are considering a trip to Flemington in November. At Haydock, the Group 2 Lancashire Oaks went to MANUELA DE VEGA who romped home unchallenged by five lengths. The field was decimated by scratchings after overnight rain left the ground soft so I'm not certain what to make of this. She's highly effective on wet turf so an autumn campaign might be on the cards.

The circus moved on to Newmarket for the July Festival. The opening day is Ladies' Day and to be honest it was fortunate there were no spectators as the rain was incessant for much of the afternoon and that turned the ground to Soft. The opening day feature was the Group 2 Princess of Wales and the rain was perfect for DAME MAILLOT who had been well behind ENBIHAAR on fast ground at Doncaster last autumn but reversed the form in style. She won the Pomone on heavy ground at Deauville last year so, rather like MANUELA DE VEGA above, she could be one for a wet autumn campaign. COMMUNIQUE made a bold effort to follow up last year's success in this race but came up against an improving filly on her ground.

At York, the Group 2 Dante saw HIGHEST GROUND, a well-touted type in Newmarket, start odds-on for this post-Derby "trial" but he just ran out of steam on the slow ground and had to give best to THUNDEROUS, a more experienced typical Mark Johnston type, gutsy and courageous in a battle. Both the front two ran with credit.

Friday saw a better day weather wise at Newmarket but the ground remained Soft for all they were racing on fresh turf.The feature Group 1 was the Falmouth Stakes for the fillies and mares and favourite for this year's renewal was TEREBELLUM who had run such a fine race behind CIRCUS MAXIMUS in the Queen Anne but this wasn't to be her day. There were two problems for jockey Frankie Dettori, first, the ground on which she was unproven and second, a field made up of finishers. He set the fractions and tried to quicken it from the front and get the others to get in each other's way but as TEREBELLUM hit the rising ground the petrol gauge was empty and she was swamped in the final 150m.

The race went to Duke of Cambridge winner NAZEEF who showed tremendous determination to battle up the hill and scramble home by a neck from the fast finishing BILLESDON BROOK who ran another fine race. Let's not forget she won the 1000 Guineas back in 2018 beating Laurens and while she's had a few moderate efforts since, she's always kept very good company and won the 2019 Sun Chariot so she owes her connections nothing and will be a smashing broodmare.

TEREBELLUM was third beaten two necks and perhaps the ground was the key or perhaps it was the nature of the field. She stays further and I wonder if connections will think about stepping her back up in trip though 2000m is a crowded market currently. ONE MASTER was slightly unlucky - he was beaten a length in total and fourth and had to switch around the winner which cost her momentum and ground at a critical time. Would she have beaten NAZEEF with a clear run? You can judge for yourselves:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_h9aSq0jZhM

DANDALLA had put up an eye-catching performance to win the Albany at Ascot but had to work much harder to win the Group 2 Duchess of Cambridge Stakes. She was reluctant to go in the stalls and while she got home here, I just wonder if the Ascot effort took more out of her than seemed the case. The placed horses, FEV ROVER and SANTOSHA, were coming off maiden race starts so the quality of the form is open to question but it's very early days for the juvenile fillies.

 

I see Dashing Willoughby was bred by Meon Valley Stud going back to Miligram ,  Russian Camelot damside from one of their old quality familes,  they breed some seriously good racehorses year in year out. 

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What do you think of Volkan Star from Charlie Appleby's yard Stodge ? Gelding so no Leger .

Surprised I cannot see him quoted in Cup betting , or any mention . Better horse at this stage of career than Cross Counter , form really strong and stacks up , good win last night , cost million guineas as a yearling . Damside goes back to Aga Khan studs , dam 44 rated and slow for Murtagh but the experts have seen something at sales . 

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17 hours ago, Red Rum said:

What do you think of Volkan Star from Charlie Appleby's yard Stodge ? Gelding so no Leger .

Surprised I cannot see him quoted in Cup betting , or any mention . Better horse at this stage of career than Cross Counter , form really strong and stacks up , good win last night , cost million guineas as a yearling . Damside goes back to Aga Khan studs , dam 44 rated and slow for Murtagh but the experts have seen something at sales . 

Yes, impressive winner at Newmarket the time before last. He beat THUNDEROUS who followed up in the Dante at York last week. 

The defeat by MISHRIF also now looks decent form.

I've not seen the Lys but the step up to 2400m was bound to suit. As for future targets, he could run in the Voltigeur at York and the Irish Leger is open to geldings. 

Could he be a Cup horse as a 4-y-o? We'll see but he's an interesting prospect.

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Wrapping up last weekend's action up here, starting with the final day of the July Meeting at Newmarket and the feature race, the July Cup, over 1200m. Billed as a clash between the two big Ascot winners, GOLDEN HORDE representing the 3-y-o and HELLO YOUMZAIN representing the older horses, it turned out neither had any answer to OXTED who exploded onto the Group 1 sprinting scene with a clear-cut success.

It's probably fair to say Roger Teal isn't one of the better known Newmarket handlers but this shows he can do the job with the right horse. The jockey, Cieren Fallon, is the son of the former champion Kieren Fallon, one of the top riders of the late 90s and early 00s winning the jockeys title six times. When I was a regular racegoer in the late 90s you could almost punt Fallon blind as every horse got a ride and you always felt you had a run for your money, win or lose.

As is well known, Fallon Senior was not without his demons and it's to be hoped the son enjoys a smoother journey as he's clearly not short of talent. 

SCEPTICAL and GOLDEN HORDE fought out the minor money suggesting there 's very little between the 3-y-o and the older horses at this time. KHAADEM was a decent fourth and HELLO YOUMZAIN, for whom I suspect the ground had dried too much, was fifth. BRANDO ran an extraordinary race finishing sixth having lost lengths at the start - he was beaten just over four lengths and if you watch the race judge how close he would have been on level terms.

OXTED had been targeted for this race after winning the Abernant but it still looked a big task moving from Group 3 to Group 1. I suspect swerving Ascot and the Diamond Jubilee was a very smart move - we've seen one or two not follow up from Ascot and I suspect, having had a quick prep before the Royal meeting, exertions in Berkshire took a heavier toll than seemed the case at the time. 

I imagine OXTED will head for Haydock while SCEPTICAL, for me, doesn't quite see out 1200m in this company. A stiff 1000m might suit better.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XsB3E6XFqG8

The supporting Group 2 Superlative went to MASTER OF THE SEAS who did this very well beating a field of winners. He picked up some fancy quotes for next year's Guineas and the breeding suggests 2000m would be his optimum. SEVENTH KINGDOM is the one for me for the longer term. He couldn't go with them early on but ran on to finish third and he's the first horse I've seen this season who looks a Derby prospect for 2021. HUDSON RIVER was very disappointing and on early evidence the Ballydoyle juveniles have yet to really prove they are the equivalent of the English 2-y-o at this time.

At Ascot, the Group 2 Summer Mile saw an impressive performance by MOHAATHER who thrashed these by nearly four lengths. Let's be honest - it all went wrong in the Queen Anne and it turned out the horse had a lovely pipe-opener in a Group 1. The benefit of that was obvious and the talk post-race was of the Sussex Stakes in a fortnight - that's lining up to be a huge race.

Sunday saw a decent card at Deauville headed by the Jean Prat over 1400m. PINATUBO won this as he as entitled to having settled much better than at Ascot and Newmarket. This is his trip rather than the mile and he was too good for LOPE Y FERNANDEZ. The Fabre horses, ALSON and TROPBEAU, were very poor while the Jersey winner MOLATHAM ran a fair race in fifth. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iOtEa_5abOk

PINATUBO is 5/1 for the Sussex and this could be the race of the season so far:

Current betting has Irish 2000 Guineas winner SISKIN at 6/4, MOHAATHER at 5/2, St James's Palace winner PALACE PIER at 5/2 and Queen Anne winner CIRCUS MAXIMUS at 7/2. 2000 Guineas winner KAMEKO is 7/1 with Falmouth winner NAZEEF also at 7s.  

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Coming up to date, as referenced above, VOLKAN STAR picked up a Group 3 at Longchamp yesterday afternoon but the British also triumphed in the Group 2 Maurice de Nieuil with old RED VERDON coming back to form and beating the French stayer CALLED TO THE BAR. RED VERDON has been down the field in the last two Caulfield Cups but he can still deliver on his day.

Just to note the Malleret for the 3-y-o fillies over 2400m went to VAUCELLES who was fourth in the Saint-Alary but appreciated the step up in trip and could well go for the Vermeille in the autumn.

LOVE will swerve this coming weekend's Irish Oaks and will wait for next month's Yorkshire Oaks. 

In other news, Goodwood are hoping to be able to have a crowd of 5,000 for the big meeting in a fortnight. They can do this because one enclosure, the Richmond, at the big meeting is reserved for Annual Members. Extend that to the Lennox Enclosure and you can probably take 5,000, none of whom would need tickets as they all have badges. Back with them would come the on-course bookmakers who have really suffered through all this. Goodwood's plans are dependent on Government approval but I  know York and other tracks are looking on keenly to see if they can get the Members back if not the hoi-polloi.

A quiet Saturday in Britain but The Curragh stages the first day of the two-day Oaks meeting. The feature race has 12 entries, six of which are trained by Aidan O'Brien. English Oaks runner up ENNISTYMON looks interesting but so too does Diane winner FANCY BLUE and her conqueror in the Irish 1000 Guineas, PEACEFUL. CAYENNE PEPPER chased home MAGICAL in the Pretty Polly but she'll do well to break the Ballydoyle stranglehold on this race.

The supporting Group 2 races are the Railway for the juveniles over 1200m and the MInstrel for the older horses over 1400m.

Sunday sees two more Group 2 events at The Curragh, the Kilboy Estate over 1600m and the Sapphire over 1000m. Meanwhile at Chantilly, we have the Group 1 Ispahan over 1800m and the Group 2 Papin for the juveniles over 1100m. Shock Coventry winner NANDO PERRADO and Norfolk winner THE LIR JET have both been declared. 

I'll pick these races up more later in the week. 

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