Optimum time to cut the chord?

[wobbly 76]

Facts:

1. Fixed odds race betting (FORB) on NZ racing is unsustainable under the current regime. It has failed to increase turnover - merely cannabalised the tote. FORB staffing is high cost with dubiously undisclosed returns. The Odds team operate in reactionary mode and seem incapable of maximising turnover on most markets. 

2. The new betting platform was implemented mainly for sports betting. Other than the cash out (under utilised due to skewed settings) the racing punter got few real benefits from this masive investment and on-going expense.

3. Sports betting has been the growth product and focus for the TAB for nearly two decades. That year-on-year growth is about to grind to a halt. Apart from the reduced discretionary spend....Sporting bodies are bleeding and will soon come knocking, with the Greens at their side no doubt, for increased  payouts. Any increase in take-out rates will leave NZ Sports betting viable only to the $10 casual punter. NZ Racing can't be, and doesnt need to be, a part of that setback.

 

My broad-brush suggestion:

1. Divorce ourselves from the Act and TAB.

2. Next Racing Minister (current one is a fraud) to drive through legislation for exchange and in-run betting. 

3. Axe fixed odds and run tote and exchange betting only via new dedicated entity - industry/investor/private partnership?

4. Run it lean'n'mean to suit the size of our industry. Tight take-out margins will draw back lost customers. 

5. Off-shore betting agencies to tender for exclusive FORB for resident kiwis. Let them stand or fall on their own performance.

6. Levy everyone/anyone not contributing directly to the benefit of NZ Racing 

7. Codes to take back resposibility for handicapping, animal welfare, integrity, marketing etc. 

8. Racing Clubs to have more autonomy but no safety net. Tender system for key dates. 

 

All too radical?

 

 

[Pam Robson 1,551]

Pretty sound IMO.

Seen much of those ideas around for many years now.  Only problem no one listened then and probably won't now.

Don't take it personally though.

[Huey 2,037]

Isn't 7 already happening. 

8 Would be great ,but a level playing field in Racing Club land can't see that happening its just about as bad as the TAB but gets away with it on a smaller scale.

Weaning punters onto the tote will be difficult.

[slam dunk 1,317]

Spot on Wobbly and as Pam says no one listened. But when you step back and ask oneself how is NZ going to get out of the s^ getting rid of the middle men is the most logical. Just rest assured there is a product that would knockout the bookies so that clubs dealt direct with the punter.

As for the punter well all a punter needs is another punter.

[We're Doomed 4,865]

55 minutes ago, poundforpound said:

 

Third question 

Race all year or take a short break ?

 

I've never really seen any advantage in taking a short break. We are just in the middle of a short break and no one seems all that happy about it.

[Swoopa 281]

1 hour ago, poundforpound said:

Agree Wobbly

Two questions

RIU, how would you deal with them ?

What’s your optimum number of tracks for the country, and name them please 

Third question 

Race all year or take a short break ?

 

(1) Like the Moran brothers 

(2)Depends on which path they follow 

(3)All year round

[Leggy 4,085]

1 hour ago, We're Doomed said:

I've never really seen any advantage in taking a short break. We are just in the middle of a short break and no one seems all that happy about it.

Isn't the test whether those events would generate sufficient net wagering revenue to warrant the cost of staging them at least relatively speaking? I think the answer might be no.

They might be more happy if they see that we have come out with more available stake money than if the break hadn't occurred. Of course a few other things have to happen to make that happen.

[Patiti 274]

NZ racing has been declining for years and revenue from domestic  racing alone would not support it.

It is now supplemented by overseas racing, mainly Australian, to increase revenue.

Also if we outsourced to Aussie do you think we are going to get any benefit for betting on their product.

They used to publish turnover figures before Bernard took over but I suspect the trend continues.

[Huey 2,037]

2 hours ago, Leggy said:

Isn't the test whether those events would generate sufficient net wagering revenue to warrant the cost of staging them at least relatively speaking? I think the answer might be no.

They might be more happy if they see that we have come out with more available stake money than if the break hadn't occurred. Of course a few other things have to happen to make that happen.

You could always put up the stakes that the races generated, some G1 might be run for $1.5k though.

[wobbly 76]

On 5/2/2020 at 6:42 PM, poundforpound said:

Agree Wobbly

Two questions

RIU, how would you deal with them ?

What’s your optimum number of tracks for the country, and name them please 

Third question 

Race all year or take a short break ?

 

1) I'll leave that to better equipped minds...dont they call you the Richie McCaw of racing's advantage line?

2) slight punters slant here - ellerslie, pukekohe, te aroha, matamata, new waikato facility (but no AW racing!), tauranga or rotorua, waverley, awapuni, hastings, trentham or otaki. Riccarton, merged west coast facility and wingatui. Major upgrades essential for most of these.

3) with reduced tracks comes compulsory winter shutdowns. Punters will come back fresher and stronger in spring, as will all racing's mechanics.

[departed 155]

The biggest problem with NZ racing is that the TAB has a statutory monopoly on punting.  A monopoly inevitably leads to a second rate product. That is exactly what you have in NZ.  Open up the market to bookies and you will stimulate interest and get a better turnover.  This is the one area that Messara never touched on but is probably the most important.  Closing down tracks isn't the answer.  Nor is synthetic tracks.  James Cummings wont race his horses on synthetic tracks.  I haven't done a count, but Victoria probably has 3 times the number of tracks that NZ does, and racing in this one state alone contributes $3.2billion a year to the Victorian economy.  Go to any picnic meeting on a Saturday during summer and the bookies ring will have 10 bookies operating and people are standing shoulder to shoulder trying to get a bet on.  Right now during the covid-19 crisis there are 1 or 2 racemeetings every day of the week in Victoria.  The state government has shut down just about everything else but realises that racing is a huge employer and contributor to the economy. Same as NSW.  Betting turnover has actually INCREASED during the covid-19 crisis.  You wouldn't have that if the TAB had a monopoly on betting.  But the corporate bookmakers are out there with incentives and offers and people are taking them. 

From what I see NZers are just taking whatever is dished out to them.  Ardern was so big on compassion after the Christchurch massacre but now she doesn't give a toss about livelihoods, particularly those of racing people, who still have to feed and care for their horses even though the industry that sustains them has been shut down.  I have been reading of people who are having to die alone because she won't show a bit of compassion, women having to give birth alone, people missing out on cancer scans when the hospitals are half empty anyway.  Then all the small businesses that will probably never reopen again, their owners having lost their years of hard work and investment.  This woman is a fraud and completely out of her depth.  She has no real world experience and is being led by the nose by health officials.  NZ has a chance to get rid of her in September, I hope you don't waste it.

 

[We're Doomed 4,865]

6 hours ago, wobbly said:

 

2) slight punters slant here - ellerslie, pukekohe, te aroha, matamata, new waikato facility (but no AW racing!), tauranga or rotorua, waverley, awapuni, hastings, trentham or otaki. Riccarton, merged west coast facility and wingatui. Major upgrades essential for most of these.

 

So no racing between Riccarton and Wingatui, where as recently as last season there were eight other tracks. And no racing in Southland where one of the South Island's top 3 trainers is based and lots of horses. And build a new track on the West Coast to hold a 3 or 4 day carnival every January, but no need for Timaru who can race for 12 months of the year. And for 4 or 5 months of the year all SI racing held at Riccarton, generally acknowledged as the worst winter track in Canterbury.

I hope you didn't spend too much time thinking all of that up: obviously not. 

[wobbly 76]

Hi WD,

Do you know the % figures for favourites winning or placing in NZ in comparison to other grass track jurisdictions?

Or for 1st 3 favourites?

They are not pretty and I ask you to perhaps consider the drivers for these turnover inhibiting stats.

[We're Doomed 4,865]

21 minutes ago, wobbly said:

Hi WD,

Do you know the % figures for favourites winning or placing in NZ in comparison to other grass track jurisdictions?

Or for 1st 3 favourites?

They are not pretty and I ask you to perhaps consider the drivers for these turnover inhibiting stats.

Not sure what that has to do with cutting all SI tracks except Riccarton and Wingatui. I would suggest Wingatui has a pretty poor strike rate for favs. Also Tauranga and Trentham are hardly places you can back favs with confidence. I would say that after Ruakaka, as a punter Tauranga would be the other track I hardly ever punt at. 

You seem to be introducing a totally new justification for closing certain tracks. I'm not sure it is one that is empirically based.  Also you seem to subscribe to Stoppers philosophy that the fav is the best horse in the race. That isn't always true. There are many factors that determine the fav in a race, especially in NZ.

[wobbly 76]

Trentham track is not the problem...it's the muddled, 'velodrome' form coming in to a true test of a horse's distance bracket.

Riccarton and Wingatui form translates well to Trentham......

My opinion is based on standardising track circumference and surfaces as best we can with what we have...culling dogs like New Plymouth and Ashburton...to provide truer form, punter confidence and increased recycling of the betting dollar.

 

 

 

[napier 339]

1 hour ago, wobbly said:

Trentham track is not the problem...it's the muddled, 'velodrome' form coming in to a true test of a horse's distance bracket.

Riccarton and Wingatui form translates well to Trentham......

My opinion is based on standardising track circumference and surfaces as best we can with what we have...culling dogs like New Plymouth and Ashburton...to provide truer form, punter confidence and increased recycling of the betting dollar.

 

 

 

Wobbly......if your wanting to "cull dogs " then you would get rid of Riccarton and Ascot Park then Waikouaiti.....very simple as they are shit tracks.....

Wingatui/Oamaru/Timaru and Ashburton are much better options......JMO

[nomates 3,605]

31 minutes ago, napier said:

Wobbly......if your wanting to "cull dogs " then you would get rid of Riccarton and Ascot Park then Waikouaiti.....very simple as they are shit tracks.....

Wingatui/Oamaru/Timaru and Ashburton are much better options......JMO

A lot faster naming the good ones i would have thought , and i mean really good .