RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
Berri

Common Sense Versus Mediocrity

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I thought I'd share this with you all. May make me look like an idiot but I don't mind pushing the status quo. Seems as though we don't know the meaning of courage and common sense anymore. Last week I was asked a few questions by David Seymour. Attached is my response. Takes some reading but I thought the response required it.

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Wow that is impressive reading BERRI ,i am  100% behind you in this .I cannot believe what is happening at our airport.Everybody coming in should be tested no exemptions 

and quarantined to result found .Have you got ideas about racing ,maybe race cafe should get behind and make a push to get you into a spot on the board.Stopping the economy

like this is only going to stuff lots of people and going too take a long time to come right.I had a horse 3 weeks from racing ,spent so much to get to this point and now in limbo not 

sure what to do as he likes a wet track.Racing needs to follow the model in Auzzie where it costs  bugger all to race except training fees

 

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30 minutes ago, dbtab said:

Wow that is impressive reading BERRI ,i am  100% behind you in this .I cannot believe what is happening at our airport.Everybody coming in should be tested no exemptions 

and quarantined to result found .Have you got ideas about racing ,maybe race cafe should get behind and make a push to get you into a spot on the board.Stopping the economy

like this is only going to stuff lots of people and going too take a long time to come right.I had a horse 3 weeks from racing ,spent so much to get to this point and now in limbo not 

sure what to do as he likes a wet track.Racing needs to follow the model in Auzzie where it costs  bugger all to race except training fees

 

You’ll find plenty of good Stables all over Aust that have training fees less or comparable to your Pike/Marsh/ Baker etc Stables. Midweek in Qld min stakes of $21k per race at TAB meetings. That’s double NZ midweek isn’t it? For same or less training costs. It’s a no-brainer where your horse ownership should be. You can watch them on TV. 

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1 hour ago, Berri said:

I thought I'd share this with you all. May make me look like an idiot but I don't mind pushing the status quo. Seems as though we don't know the meaning of courage and common sense anymore. Last week I was asked a few questions by David Seymour. Attached is my response. Takes some reading but I thought the response required it.

Moving forward copy.pages

can't open for some reason

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From: David Seymour <ruggaseymour@hotmail.com>
Sent: Sunday, 29 March 2020 10:21 pm
To: berrischroder@gmail.com
Subject: Re: corona virus

 

Hi Berri,

 

Yes thanks, you are asking the right question. Any Government can put a restriction in place, the hard part is lifting them. What does our future look like in a post Covid world? Here are a few more questions that I am asking thoughtful people:

 

  1. How to decide to lower the current level of alert (and does the govt have data)?
  2. What does the fiscal plan look like (tax increases may be necessary, if so I suggest raising the 10.5c and 30c rates to match the rates above, giving a relatively flat structure of 17.5c up to 48k and 33 thereafter. There will also have to be a lot of reductions in spending
  3. What does the preparedness plan for the next one look like (could a much more prepared, surgical, and tech-enabled solution have reduced transmission without the kind of economic catastrophe we’re now facing?)
  4. What does the NZ economy look like given that, even if we sort our own house, the rest of the world is going to have ongoing problems in different places (and what is the role of Government in this?)

 

Of course, there will be other questions,

 

David

 

 

Now that’s a challenge. The first thing I’d be saying is test, test and then test again…and that is the most critical pathway what ever happens. Make a public statement….Go harder than you have every gone….it’s a no brainer….test EVERYONE coming into the country. Test everyone for the anti bodies so that you know who have had it. And once you finish that keep testing. It’s the cheapest way to combat this virus and formulate plans for the future. Don’t compromise like the current idiots are. Get a NZ entity in NZ to contact Abbot Labs in the US or Biosure in the UK and get test kits made in NZ IF we can’t get them…Simultaneously…..ICU beds….produce, produce, produce

 

The problem is that as a society we have got soft, we haven’t really suffered hardship, our younger people have an addiction to social media and don’t have a perspective that is anything else other than a consensus model that is community based. As most people live in cities, this is rather a distorted view of our environment and what the norms of social behaviour should be like.

 

I listened to Bloomfield this morning on the AM Show. For the first time I realised that he is mediocre. He was asked two pertinent questions, one being in relation to the unfortunate death of the West Coast women, and the other relating to the Queenstown testing company that offered test kits that were 96% accurate but gave a result in 15 min. His responses to both were disappointing, more so the Queenstown testing kits. When asked if they could be used for all incoming passengers, he stated that enough people were being tested. When pressed, he said that the people getting tested were those with symptoms. He was happy that all people were doing the right thing in self isolating. But hang on a minute….many infected people are asymptomatic in many cases (18% according to WHO). There are reports that in certain countries, infection may be as high as 40% already. So he’s now relying on self isolation. But humans are humans….that’s a flawed strategy if you’re going for complete containment. Why not test everyone coming into the country if self containment is the strategy? Having a 4% error is better than a 14% error due to asymptomatic issues. Don’t have to be Einstein to work that out.

 

Hence my mediocre label, and the West Coast response was similar. You’d have thought that because it was our first death, then the bloke would be all over it like a bad rash, simply to provide comfort to all that everything was being done…..a shame.

 

So to the problem at hand. The unknowns are that if you get it, do you get it again? That is the curly. To find that out we need to go backwards. Try this….

https://www.history.com/topics/world-war-i/1918-flu-pandemic

 

I have no doubt this hasn't been thought through enough. Herd immunity is the only long term course (apart from vaccination) to get back to normal. All of this lock down is a political solution to attempt to restrict visual social media from displaying the short comings of a health system in disarray and the inability for governments to efficiently manage health outbreaks such as pandemics. We should have been prepared but we weren't. We had plenty of notice (SARS, MERS, Ebola etc) but no notice was taken. Even when the reports of a potential pandemic in China was in play, our health officials ignored it. The government ignored it. 

So this lock down is all about mitigating the risk of social discord and buying time because we weren't prepared. Hollywood even beat governments to it. Now to the facts:

Health Condition                   Period             Registered Infections *                   Deaths*                      % Deaths to Registered Infections

                                  01-01-2020 to 29-3-2020

Tuberculosis                                                             2,490,000                                 475,000                           15%

Malaria                                                                    17,100,000                                 101,000                            0.50%

Aids                                                                          37,900,000**                             192,500                            0.50%

Influenza                                                                 19,000,000** *                             38,333                            0.20%

C-19                                                                                622,395                                  28,804                            4.60%

Measles                                                                         650,000                                  35,000                            5.30%

* From 2018 figures

** have the disease

*** Estimated as a percentage

So that tells us where we are in terms of other conditions that have been plaguing us over the years. The three that really interest me are TB, Influenza (Flu) and measles as these are viral and have vaccines for them. The Flu interests me because the reason for annual flu jabs is that the flu strain seems to be a 2 yearly mutation. That is why every year they go hard at getting this winter's flu jabs. As we already know that C-19 has had one mutation cycle.

As the new coronavirus continues to spread around the globe, researchers say the virus is changing its genetic makeup slightly. Viruses mutate naturally as part of their life cycle," says Ewan Harrison, scientific project manager for the COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium, a new project that tracks the virus in the United Kingdom.

So here we are, politically smashing the entire financial environment, which theoretically will cause more deaths than the virus itself. There is a direct correlation between the financial stability of human beings and ill health and death.

Let’s look to the herd immunisation proposition, which is essentially what the Spanish Flu was all about.

So let's keep to the facts. If we have 800 ICU beds available that have respirators, and we have a population of 4.5m and we know that statistically 80% of the population will get this, and we know that 6% will require hospitalisation, then we need 216,000 beds. If the virus cycles every 7 days (mean is 6.8 but there has been one outlier of 27 days - that complicates things somewhat), then to avoid a political and social meltdown of people being cared for in the corridors and lots of dead bodies shown on film, we need 25,000 beds to smash this over 10 weeks. This presumes that we can control the contagion to space the infection exposure to approx 450,000 people per week. Each ICU bed is approx $3500 each so therefore we need  approx $87m for ICU bed equipment. Say we need places where 200 beds can be put under roof. You could make super centres for all of this but with that comes problems associated with logistics of transport and location. Some patients may not have the luxury of time. These places must be able to cater for 200 people for food and ablutions. That means we need 150 facilities that can be converted quickly and inexpensively. We also need say 1 educated helper per 5 beds. That means we need to quickly train 5000 people to work a ICU bed. We also need overseeing doctors and emergency stuff and personnel for when the shit hits the fan with those that should die but can be saved. This equipment and this group of people will be the tricky thing to source. This is where the army comes in. They have a lot of kit that can help but probably not enough. But they do have people with mobilisation knowledge and skills. The rest, we buy. We offer offshore people a fortune to help us for 6 months and we go hard. 

You do realise that our race tracks may have facilities that when converted can help? They have space, kitchens and location. They are invariably attached to a town. Those towns have doctors and I'll bet you there are volunteers everywhere to be educated, or wish to help. So to the cost?......less than $500m with a bump of three months and it's all over.

Weigh that against 800 beds available during isolation where "hopefully" we'll stamp it out but like measles and TB we won't because we can't have all the borders closed for ever and this virus is seriously contagious. To achieve the isolation result, we need all the countries in the World to be compliant, but that cannot be relied upon. Alternatively we say to the rest of the World that our quarantine regulations have changed and to get into the country you need to put yourself in a certified quarantine station for 27 days (we do it for our horses), you need three separate tests during quarantine and when you get to NZ, you will have to place your luggage in quarantine for 14 days and you’ll have to be scrubbed from head to foot before you step inside. Is that really practical for if one case gets through our borders we are chasing our tails again? What are we to do in the future? A new virus has come to town. You really think it can be eliminated when measles and TB can't? 

This C-19 flu is a different version of flu and somehow we have to get resistance to it or subscribe to waiting for a vaccine that may affect us for many years to come. From th Hopkins Research Centre

The virus is not a living organism, but a protein molecule (DNA) covered by a protective layer of lipid (fat), which, when absorbed by the cells of the ocular, nasal or buccal mucosa, changes their genetic code. (mutation) and convert them into aggressor and multiplier cells.

* Since the virus is not a living organism but a protein molecule, it is not killed, but decays on its own. The disintegration time depends on the temperature, humidity and type of material where it lies.

* The virus is very fragile; the only thing that protects it is a thin outer layer of fat. That is why any soap or detergent is the best remedy, because the foam CUTS the FAT (that is why you have to rub so much: for 20 seconds or more, to make a lot of foam).

By dissolving the fat layer, the protein molecule disperses and breaks down on its own.

* HEAT melts fat; this is why it is so good to use water above 25 degrees Celsius for washing hands, clothes and everything. In addition, hot water makes more foam and that makes it even more useful.

* Alcohol or any mixture with alcohol over 65% DISSOLVES ANY FAT, especially the external lipid layer of the virus.

So to manually get rid of it we need to provide applications that achieve the above. A vaccine is different.

I listened to a Zoom cast put on by the Weizmann Institute in Israel. They're probably known around the World as one of the most progressive research centres on the planet. Gates allegedly gives them $250m a year. The Zoom Cast had sqillions of viewers. Through Following At Home, they've allegedly linked together 2.1m computers to make the World's largest super computer. They are now open sourcing a collaborative initiative between 2000 scientists and laboratories. Included in the initiative are four of the largest AI and machine learning centres to analysis and process the data being created. There allegedly are over 150 lab simultaneously conducting tests on humanoids to establish what works and what doesn't. There is another set of labs inventing shit that can only be described as a World collaboration. The vaccine that they are attempting to make will be open sourced. No one will own it.  On record is the head of that facility saying that normal vaccines  take 8-10 years to develop and cost $1-1.5b to make. They think they can do it in 4-5 months. The real issue is manufacturing, where he said sourcing the components (set aside the manufacturing) could take a further 4 months. So we at best are in a 8 month hold pattern for a vaccine that has never been delivered in a time from of less than 8 months, but is probably longer.

The right people should now know the data surrounding the type of people who are getting sick. This will help manage areas like South Auckland, Northland and the East Coast IF they have the profiles as being the type that get sick. But at the same time there are initiatives all round the World that are produces promising results. The key of these initiatives for us in NZ, is that if they are effective, how do we get hold of them? So we need to access a production resource that when the results of effectiveness are known, get them produced in our territory. Hydroxychloroquine and Azithemycin is one of these, as are blood plasma products. What we need to do is prepare for a herd immunisation program as soon as it looks as though there is a meaningful solution to health remedies, but we should have it anyway for those who want to participate in herd immunisation. If I knew that I wasn’t in a vulnerable group, and I knew there was a hospital bed for me prepared and ready to go, I would think very hard about going for it. I have been trying to get Hydroxychloroquine and Azithemycin a month ago but it wasn’t available to me due to regulations. There were two containers of it at the Remuera Chemist. They told me I needed a doctors prescription. I went next door to my doctor. He told me I needed a specialist doctors prescription. What the fuck?

So for us, we will be locked up, closed down, locked up, and closed down as outbreaks occur. We will not have freedom as we know it until we are all infected or the remedy/ vaccine arrives in no earlier than 8 months. In the meantime, Rome burns....how do we fund the cost of all of this without ripping everything apart for many years to come?

So taking into account all of what seems to be a combination of statistics, common sense and scientific advice, if we carry on with the proposed plan, there is every chance that debt will be as high as 30% of GDP but this could be higher. We know what happens when we exceed that and all you’ve got to do is look at the 1929 Crash to understand the effects. Look backwards before you look forwards. At the moment it would seem that this crisis is being managed in an under duress model and that always has serious issues. We need to set the pace, not follow it but that takes courage.

 

If I were running this country, I would use herd immunity as my tool. I would spend a truck load of money on symptomatic treatment for the chronic cases. I would regionalise it so that the chronic cases can be managed health wise. My biggest tool would be testing kits, not only if I had the active virus, but almost more important, have I had it. This creates certainty to the mobilisation of people. If an entire town had been infected, then why couldn’t they go back to work in that town. You could argue that we don’t know if you can be re-infected, but if that is the case then we’re all seriously in trouble no matter what. So the faster the better because it will still be there. The alert levels would be set as an algorithm combining a defined regional data trawl between who hasn’t got it, who has got it, who has had it and how many dead people want to be paraded on social media due to an incompetent, inefficient and/ or inadequate remedial health system. Testing kits are the key. If we can’t buy them, let’s make them.

 

So to the fiscal plan. Well managed herd inoculation is the cheapest solution so apart from all the export issues, if we were all immune, we could accept tourism and be one of the countries in the World that is looked as a safe haven, as long as the testing and quarantine systems were extremely robust for the new arrivals. What an opportunity IF we did it right now!!!

 

So how do we pay for this? $500,000,000 interim versus a guaranteed $12.5b…..

 

If it were me running the country, I’d now be reaching for social media and interlinking some of the best financial and economic brains in NZ, who were trusted by New Zealanders, to open source an economic initiative in investigate the financial issues so that a consensus of the social media population could be informed and be directed by the proposition. I would hold a virtual referendum  at the right time. I unfortunately have no faith in our government because all I ever see is a mess.

 

So the tax issue to pay for this in future should be modelled depending on the eventual initiative to make us immune. If we wanted to play it absolutely safe, then we’d wait. But we’d probably go bust trying that. We simply need to be smart. The tax modelling on this should be open sourced as well so that everyone has the opportunity to discuss and understand the choice and opportunity. A tax model should be created to determine the amount of tax to be paid and the way it would affect everyone in specific wage/ remuneration brackets, so that prior to it happening, everyone would know what they are in for. This should be dynamic. Why keep people in the dark? We need to now have a slightly more open reporting society.

 

On the topic of a preparedness plan, I’d simply invite Bill Gates to a conference call and ask him to supply all the information and data that he has accumulated for the past 10 years on the topic. He has invested time and an enormous amount of money putting his thoughts together. If he can get up in front of the World community in 2015 the way he did (and numerous additional times), then he understands it better than anyone. For him it would be completing unfinished business that was seriously dear to his heart that for some reason ran into a lot of resistance.

 

The last topic is an interesting one and simply follows on from our discussions in respect of policies. Right now you have a huge opportunity to look modern, well informed, collaborative and compassionate. We have the potential to reset every bar right now. You need to have some seriously good technology behind you and have the potential to come out swinging while everyone is feeling sorry for themselves and/ or punch drunk. You need a team of solids and outliers. The paradigm of conventional has just changed.  

 

If everyone in NZ were immune, then the proposition would be different. We really need to ask the people in NZ to see what they want. I’m radical (I want it but may have had it- but can’t get a test) but my approach to this is not necessarily the right approach for a lot of others. So if you could get a group of like minded people in a co-ordinated initiative that suits us, and we didn’t compromise others, then why not? It would help the economy. I live in three houses, Auckland, Matamata and Arrowtown. My ex wife also has her house. My youngest son came up from Otago Uni and is with his mother….self isolated. My oldest son came in from Melbourne. He went into my Auckland house because he really needed to self isolate. He has a history of respiratory issues (shit). I moved to Matamata. I didn’t call everyone to Arrowtown where I’m on the farm. Plenty to do down there but no hospitals if the proverbial hits the fan. So if I knew I was immune, how much more effective would I be? Due to my education, I am probably more informed than most. So if I was planning for the future, I’d be developing a immunity card. Almost like a drivers license but with the conditions that I was immune to. So what do we need for that? An absolutely secure file on everyone which has both the inoculation schedule (historic) but also an immunity schedule. What does that come down to….test test, test.

 

This virus is a health issue. It will accelerate compliance for food generation and traceability. Everyone will be looking at food and packaging as a potential transfer of bugs. These viruses live on certain surfaces for some time. We need to show the World that we are compliant. We need to show that our environment and food is the best in the World. We need to be leaders. We need to show the World that IF you come to NZ, you are coming to the safest place in the World. We need to rejig tourism. We don’t need low end cattle truck tourism. We need to make sure that what ever we do we can control it because this virus may be the wake up call. One thing that has happened is that we have shown terrorists how to wreck everything.

 

We need to be part of a World health solution so that the issues and numbers can be trusted. No-one trusted China when this outbreak broke out. They still don’t. So we could lead the way. Not because it’s a good political grandstand, but more that it’s the right thing to do. The unfortunate part is that New Zealand society has pursued the notion that government is the go to position. It shouldn’t be because we now have the tools to take everything away from government. But  haven’t seen any politician state that they will take a pay cut. I haven’t seen the government (or the racing industry) say that their work force will be laid off and I certainly haven’t seen our leaders say that their remuneration packages have been chopped in half. Most other businesses have. We’re all in the same boat. So unfortunately there is a rule for them and a rule for us scenario. We’re all at home doing less than we were before.

 

So I’m into creating social change that we should all pay for to “Break the Cycle”. What ever it takes. It’s socially right and we all suffer because we’ve screwed it up for centuries. The numbers just get bigger.

 

I’m into making NZ produced food into being the best grown, best managed, best environmental food on the planet. That is why I have a farming policy that cuts out petro chemical fertiliser and spray use so that the animals and environment is better. Just so happens that when you do this you produce more and its worth more. Reward people and they will perform.

 

The fishing industry needs a complete over haul. It’s not working and this year we shall see a completely different event happen in respect of crayfish stocks. C-19 messed with Chinese New Years so 1500 tonnes of crayfish weren’t harvested. Great news. But our fish stocks are shot, the quota system is corrupt and there aren’t any controls in place. NZers are missing out and are being short changed.

 

Tourism is very different. At the moment many tourists come into NZ on a package tour. They are sold tokens that see the tourists attend shops where they can by things using the tokens. Those shops are owned by the tourist operators. So a lot of NZ misses the kerching of the till because no funds come through NZ. Let’s be like the American film industry where the studios could not own the picture theatres. That meant that corruption couldn’t occur through accounting. In NZ we are missing out on a fortune of GST in the sale of certain goods through this token system,

 

We also could have a fantastic young persons tourist spot. We just need to be the best and the cheapest is not the best. If we were a shining light in the World in respect of our next steps, we would attract the right people. Don’t be afraid to charge for things that could provide better more robust facilities and systems. Look at what the tourists needed to do when we had the current virus problem. This is the under duress model. We want to become the go to place because our systems are the best.

 

If we set up a rewards program that is very generic, biased towards the ethos of what this country needs, then we will drag this economy back faster.

 

Another rave…..The technology platform is what I’d be aiming for at this stage. From that you can launch anything.

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2 minutes ago, Berri said:

From: David Seymour <ruggaseymour@hotmail.com>
Sent: Sunday, 29 March 2020 10:21 pm
To: berrischroder@gmail.com
Subject: Re: corona virus

 

Hi Berri,

 

Yes thanks, you are asking the right question. Any Government can put a restriction in place, the hard part is lifting them. What does our future look like in a post Covid world? Here are a few more questions that I am asking thoughtful people:

 

  1. How to decide to lower the current level of alert (and does the govt have data)?
  2. What does the fiscal plan look like (tax increases may be necessary, if so I suggest raising the 10.5c and 30c rates to match the rates above, giving a relatively flat structure of 17.5c up to 48k and 33 thereafter. There will also have to be a lot of reductions in spending
  3. What does the preparedness plan for the next one look like (could a much more prepared, surgical, and tech-enabled solution have reduced transmission without the kind of economic catastrophe we’re now facing?)
  4. What does the NZ economy look like given that, even if we sort our own house, the rest of the world is going to have ongoing problems in different places (and what is the role of Government in this?)

 

Of course, there will be other questions,

 

David

 

 

Now that’s a challenge. The first thing I’d be saying is test, test and then test again…and that is the most critical pathway what ever happens. Make a public statement….Go harder than you have every gone….it’s a no brainer….test EVERYONE coming into the country. Test everyone for the anti bodies so that you know who have had it. And once you finish that keep testing. It’s the cheapest way to combat this virus and formulate plans for the future. Don’t compromise like the current idiots are. Get a NZ entity in NZ to contact Abbot Labs in the US or Biosure in the UK and get test kits made in NZ IF we can’t get them…Simultaneously…..ICU beds….produce, produce, produce

 

The problem is that as a society we have got soft, we haven’t really suffered hardship, our younger people have an addiction to social media and don’t have a perspective that is anything else other than a consensus model that is community based. As most people live in cities, this is rather a distorted view of our environment and what the norms of social behaviour should be like.

 

I listened to Bloomfield this morning on the AM Show. For the first time I realised that he is mediocre. He was asked two pertinent questions, one being in relation to the unfortunate death of the West Coast women, and the other relating to the Queenstown testing company that offered test kits that were 96% accurate but gave a result in 15 min. His responses to both were disappointing, more so the Queenstown testing kits. When asked if they could be used for all incoming passengers, he stated that enough people were being tested. When pressed, he said that the people getting tested were those with symptoms. He was happy that all people were doing the right thing in self isolating. But hang on a minute….many infected people are asymptomatic in many cases (18% according to WHO). There are reports that in certain countries, infection may be as high as 40% already. So he’s now relying on self isolation. But humans are humans….that’s a flawed strategy if you’re going for complete containment. Why not test everyone coming into the country if self containment is the strategy? Having a 4% error is better than a 14% error due to asymptomatic issues. Don’t have to be Einstein to work that out.

 

Hence my mediocre label, and the West Coast response was similar. You’d have thought that because it was our first death, then the bloke would be all over it like a bad rash, simply to provide comfort to all that everything was being done…..a shame.

 

So to the problem at hand. The unknowns are that if you get it, do you get it again? That is the curly. To find that out we need to go backwards. Try this….

https://www.history.com/topics/world-war-i/1918-flu-pandemic

 

I have no doubt this hasn't been thought through enough. Herd immunity is the only long term course (apart from vaccination) to get back to normal. All of this lock down is a political solution to attempt to restrict visual social media from displaying the short comings of a health system in disarray and the inability for governments to efficiently manage health outbreaks such as pandemics. We should have been prepared but we weren't. We had plenty of notice (SARS, MERS, Ebola etc) but no notice was taken. Even when the reports of a potential pandemic in China was in play, our health officials ignored it. The government ignored it. 

So this lock down is all about mitigating the risk of social discord and buying time because we weren't prepared. Hollywood even beat governments to it. Now to the facts:

Health Condition                   Period             Registered Infections *                   Deaths*                      % Deaths to Registered Infections

                                  01-01-2020 to 29-3-2020

Tuberculosis                                                             2,490,000                                 475,000                           15%

Malaria                                                                    17,100,000                                 101,000                            0.50%

Aids                                                                          37,900,000**                             192,500                            0.50%

Influenza                                                                 19,000,000** *                             38,333                            0.20%

C-19                                                                                622,395                                  28,804                            4.60%

Measles                                                                         650,000                                  35,000                            5.30%

* From 2018 figures

** have the disease

*** Estimated as a percentage

So that tells us where we are in terms of other conditions that have been plaguing us over the years. The three that really interest me are TB, Influenza (Flu) and measles as these are viral and have vaccines for them. The Flu interests me because the reason for annual flu jabs is that the flu strain seems to be a 2 yearly mutation. That is why every year they go hard at getting this winter's flu jabs. As we already know that C-19 has had one mutation cycle.

As the new coronavirus continues to spread around the globe, researchers say the virus is changing its genetic makeup slightly. Viruses mutate naturally as part of their life cycle," says Ewan Harrison, scientific project manager for the COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium, a new project that tracks the virus in the United Kingdom.

So here we are, politically smashing the entire financial environment, which theoretically will cause more deaths than the virus itself. There is a direct correlation between the financial stability of human beings and ill health and death.

Let’s look to the herd immunisation proposition, which is essentially what the Spanish Flu was all about.

So let's keep to the facts. If we have 800 ICU beds available that have respirators, and we have a population of 4.5m and we know that statistically 80% of the population will get this, and we know that 6% will require hospitalisation, then we need 216,000 beds. If the virus cycles every 7 days (mean is 6.8 but there has been one outlier of 27 days - that complicates things somewhat), then to avoid a political and social meltdown of people being cared for in the corridors and lots of dead bodies shown on film, we need 25,000 beds to smash this over 10 weeks. This presumes that we can control the contagion to space the infection exposure to approx 450,000 people per week. Each ICU bed is approx $3500 each so therefore we need  approx $87m for ICU bed equipment. Say we need places where 200 beds can be put under roof. You could make super centres for all of this but with that comes problems associated with logistics of transport and location. Some patients may not have the luxury of time. These places must be able to cater for 200 people for food and ablutions. That means we need 150 facilities that can be converted quickly and inexpensively. We also need say 1 educated helper per 5 beds. That means we need to quickly train 5000 people to work a ICU bed. We also need overseeing doctors and emergency stuff and personnel for when the shit hits the fan with those that should die but can be saved. This equipment and this group of people will be the tricky thing to source. This is where the army comes in. They have a lot of kit that can help but probably not enough. But they do have people with mobilisation knowledge and skills. The rest, we buy. We offer offshore people a fortune to help us for 6 months and we go hard. 

You do realise that our race tracks may have facilities that when converted can help? They have space, kitchens and location. They are invariably attached to a town. Those towns have doctors and I'll bet you there are volunteers everywhere to be educated, or wish to help. So to the cost?......less than $500m with a bump of three months and it's all over.

Weigh that against 800 beds available during isolation where "hopefully" we'll stamp it out but like measles and TB we won't because we can't have all the borders closed for ever and this virus is seriously contagious. To achieve the isolation result, we need all the countries in the World to be compliant, but that cannot be relied upon. Alternatively we say to the rest of the World that our quarantine regulations have changed and to get into the country you need to put yourself in a certified quarantine station for 27 days (we do it for our horses), you need three separate tests during quarantine and when you get to NZ, you will have to place your luggage in quarantine for 14 days and you’ll have to be scrubbed from head to foot before you step inside. Is that really practical for if one case gets through our borders we are chasing our tails again? What are we to do in the future? A new virus has come to town. You really think it can be eliminated when measles and TB can't? 

This C-19 flu is a different version of flu and somehow we have to get resistance to it or subscribe to waiting for a vaccine that may affect us for many years to come. From th Hopkins Research Centre

The virus is not a living organism, but a protein molecule (DNA) covered by a protective layer of lipid (fat), which, when absorbed by the cells of the ocular, nasal or buccal mucosa, changes their genetic code. (mutation) and convert them into aggressor and multiplier cells.

* Since the virus is not a living organism but a protein molecule, it is not killed, but decays on its own. The disintegration time depends on the temperature, humidity and type of material where it lies.

* The virus is very fragile; the only thing that protects it is a thin outer layer of fat. That is why any soap or detergent is the best remedy, because the foam CUTS the FAT (that is why you have to rub so much: for 20 seconds or more, to make a lot of foam).

By dissolving the fat layer, the protein molecule disperses and breaks down on its own.

* HEAT melts fat; this is why it is so good to use water above 25 degrees Celsius for washing hands, clothes and everything. In addition, hot water makes more foam and that makes it even more useful.

* Alcohol or any mixture with alcohol over 65% DISSOLVES ANY FAT, especially the external lipid layer of the virus.

So to manually get rid of it we need to provide applications that achieve the above. A vaccine is different.

I listened to a Zoom cast put on by the Weizmann Institute in Israel. They're probably known around the World as one of the most progressive research centres on the planet. Gates allegedly gives them $250m a year. The Zoom Cast had sqillions of viewers. Through Following At Home, they've allegedly linked together 2.1m computers to make the World's largest super computer. They are now open sourcing a collaborative initiative between 2000 scientists and laboratories. Included in the initiative are four of the largest AI and machine learning centres to analysis and process the data being created. There allegedly are over 150 lab simultaneously conducting tests on humanoids to establish what works and what doesn't. There is another set of labs inventing shit that can only be described as a World collaboration. The vaccine that they are attempting to make will be open sourced. No one will own it.  On record is the head of that facility saying that normal vaccines  take 8-10 years to develop and cost $1-1.5b to make. They think they can do it in 4-5 months. The real issue is manufacturing, where he said sourcing the components (set aside the manufacturing) could take a further 4 months. So we at best are in a 8 month hold pattern for a vaccine that has never been delivered in a time from of less than 8 months, but is probably longer.

The right people should now know the data surrounding the type of people who are getting sick. This will help manage areas like South Auckland, Northland and the East Coast IF they have the profiles as being the type that get sick. But at the same time there are initiatives all round the World that are produces promising results. The key of these initiatives for us in NZ, is that if they are effective, how do we get hold of them? So we need to access a production resource that when the results of effectiveness are known, get them produced in our territory. Hydroxychloroquine and Azithemycin is one of these, as are blood plasma products. What we need to do is prepare for a herd immunisation program as soon as it looks as though there is a meaningful solution to health remedies, but we should have it anyway for those who want to participate in herd immunisation. If I knew that I wasn’t in a vulnerable group, and I knew there was a hospital bed for me prepared and ready to go, I would think very hard about going for it. I have been trying to get Hydroxychloroquine and Azithemycin a month ago but it wasn’t available to me due to regulations. There were two containers of it at the Remuera Chemist. They told me I needed a doctors prescription. I went next door to my doctor. He told me I needed a specialist doctors prescription. What the fuck?

So for us, we will be locked up, closed down, locked up, and closed down as outbreaks occur. We will not have freedom as we know it until we are all infected or the remedy/ vaccine arrives in no earlier than 8 months. In the meantime, Rome burns....how do we fund the cost of all of this without ripping everything apart for many years to come?

So taking into account all of what seems to be a combination of statistics, common sense and scientific advice, if we carry on with the proposed plan, there is every chance that debt will be as high as 30% of GDP but this could be higher. We know what happens when we exceed that and all you’ve got to do is look at the 1929 Crash to understand the effects. Look backwards before you look forwards. At the moment it would seem that this crisis is being managed in an under duress model and that always has serious issues. We need to set the pace, not follow it but that takes courage.

 

If I were running this country, I would use herd immunity as my tool. I would spend a truck load of money on symptomatic treatment for the chronic cases. I would regionalise it so that the chronic cases can be managed health wise. My biggest tool would be testing kits, not only if I had the active virus, but almost more important, have I had it. This creates certainty to the mobilisation of people. If an entire town had been infected, then why couldn’t they go back to work in that town. You could argue that we don’t know if you can be re-infected, but if that is the case then we’re all seriously in trouble no matter what. So the faster the better because it will still be there. The alert levels would be set as an algorithm combining a defined regional data trawl between who hasn’t got it, who has got it, who has had it and how many dead people want to be paraded on social media due to an incompetent, inefficient and/ or inadequate remedial health system. Testing kits are the key. If we can’t buy them, let’s make them.

 

So to the fiscal plan. Well managed herd inoculation is the cheapest solution so apart from all the export issues, if we were all immune, we could accept tourism and be one of the countries in the World that is looked as a safe haven, as long as the testing and quarantine systems were extremely robust for the new arrivals. What an opportunity IF we did it right now!!!

 

So how do we pay for this? $500,000,000 interim versus a guaranteed $12.5b…..

 

If it were me running the country, I’d now be reaching for social media and interlinking some of the best financial and economic brains in NZ, who were trusted by New Zealanders, to open source an economic initiative in investigate the financial issues so that a consensus of the social media population could be informed and be directed by the proposition. I would hold a virtual referendum  at the right time. I unfortunately have no faith in our government because all I ever see is a mess.

 

So the tax issue to pay for this in future should be modelled depending on the eventual initiative to make us immune. If we wanted to play it absolutely safe, then we’d wait. But we’d probably go bust trying that. We simply need to be smart. The tax modelling on this should be open sourced as well so that everyone has the opportunity to discuss and understand the choice and opportunity. A tax model should be created to determine the amount of tax to be paid and the way it would affect everyone in specific wage/ remuneration brackets, so that prior to it happening, everyone would know what they are in for. This should be dynamic. Why keep people in the dark? We need to now have a slightly more open reporting society.

 

On the topic of a preparedness plan, I’d simply invite Bill Gates to a conference call and ask him to supply all the information and data that he has accumulated for the past 10 years on the topic. He has invested time and an enormous amount of money putting his thoughts together. If he can get up in front of the World community in 2015 the way he did (and numerous additional times), then he understands it better than anyone. For him it would be completing unfinished business that was seriously dear to his heart that for some reason ran into a lot of resistance.

 

The last topic is an interesting one and simply follows on from our discussions in respect of policies. Right now you have a huge opportunity to look modern, well informed, collaborative and compassionate. We have the potential to reset every bar right now. You need to have some seriously good technology behind you and have the potential to come out swinging while everyone is feeling sorry for themselves and/ or punch drunk. You need a team of solids and outliers. The paradigm of conventional has just changed.  

 

If everyone in NZ were immune, then the proposition would be different. We really need to ask the people in NZ to see what they want. I’m radical (I want it but may have had it- but can’t get a test) but my approach to this is not necessarily the right approach for a lot of others. So if you could get a group of like minded people in a co-ordinated initiative that suits us, and we didn’t compromise others, then why not? It would help the economy. I live in three houses, Auckland, Matamata and Arrowtown. My ex wife also has her house. My youngest son came up from Otago Uni and is with his mother….self isolated. My oldest son came in from Melbourne. He went into my Auckland house because he really needed to self isolate. He has a history of respiratory issues (shit). I moved to Matamata. I didn’t call everyone to Arrowtown where I’m on the farm. Plenty to do down there but no hospitals if the proverbial hits the fan. So if I knew I was immune, how much more effective would I be? Due to my education, I am probably more informed than most. So if I was planning for the future, I’d be developing a immunity card. Almost like a drivers license but with the conditions that I was immune to. So what do we need for that? An absolutely secure file on everyone which has both the inoculation schedule (historic) but also an immunity schedule. What does that come down to….test test, test.

 

This virus is a health issue. It will accelerate compliance for food generation and traceability. Everyone will be looking at food and packaging as a potential transfer of bugs. These viruses live on certain surfaces for some time. We need to show the World that we are compliant. We need to show that our environment and food is the best in the World. We need to be leaders. We need to show the World that IF you come to NZ, you are coming to the safest place in the World. We need to rejig tourism. We don’t need low end cattle truck tourism. We need to make sure that what ever we do we can control it because this virus may be the wake up call. One thing that has happened is that we have shown terrorists how to wreck everything.

 

We need to be part of a World health solution so that the issues and numbers can be trusted. No-one trusted China when this outbreak broke out. They still don’t. So we could lead the way. Not because it’s a good political grandstand, but more that it’s the right thing to do. The unfortunate part is that New Zealand society has pursued the notion that government is the go to position. It shouldn’t be because we now have the tools to take everything away from government. But  haven’t seen any politician state that they will take a pay cut. I haven’t seen the government (or the racing industry) say that their work force will be laid off and I certainly haven’t seen our leaders say that their remuneration packages have been chopped in half. Most other businesses have. We’re all in the same boat. So unfortunately there is a rule for them and a rule for us scenario. We’re all at home doing less than we were before.

 

So I’m into creating social change that we should all pay for to “Break the Cycle”. What ever it takes. It’s socially right and we all suffer because we’ve screwed it up for centuries. The numbers just get bigger.

 

I’m into making NZ produced food into being the best grown, best managed, best environmental food on the planet. That is why I have a farming policy that cuts out petro chemical fertiliser and spray use so that the animals and environment is better. Just so happens that when you do this you produce more and its worth more. Reward people and they will perform.

 

The fishing industry needs a complete over haul. It’s not working and this year we shall see a completely different event happen in respect of crayfish stocks. C-19 messed with Chinese New Years so 1500 tonnes of crayfish weren’t harvested. Great news. But our fish stocks are shot, the quota system is corrupt and there aren’t any controls in place. NZers are missing out and are being short changed.

 

Tourism is very different. At the moment many tourists come into NZ on a package tour. They are sold tokens that see the tourists attend shops where they can by things using the tokens. Those shops are owned by the tourist operators. So a lot of NZ misses the kerching of the till because no funds come through NZ. Let’s be like the American film industry where the studios could not own the picture theatres. That meant that corruption couldn’t occur through accounting. In NZ we are missing out on a fortune of GST in the sale of certain goods through this token system,

 

We also could have a fantastic young persons tourist spot. We just need to be the best and the cheapest is not the best. If we were a shining light in the World in respect of our next steps, we would attract the right people. Don’t be afraid to charge for things that could provide better more robust facilities and systems. Look at what the tourists needed to do when we had the current virus problem. This is the under duress model. We want to become the go to place because our systems are the best.

 

If we set up a rewards program that is very generic, biased towards the ethos of what this country needs, then we will drag this economy back faster.

 

Another rave…..The technology platform is what I’d be aiming for at this stage. From that you can launch anything.

Impressive Berrifruit, so you recieved his e-mail around 10.21 pm replied to it then in Bed at around 10.30 ?

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It so happens I have a living document because I'm working with others for a racing solution. You always have to have reasons for doing something and if you don't document it, you have no right to enact it. Anyone seen a plan or any suggestion from government as to how a full lock down is going to help NZ in the long terms? I heard Cindy say that they were trying to wipe it out instead of herd immunisation. Then take what happened with Mico Bovis. They said they were going to wipe it out. So they killed every cow that had it. They haven't yet finished it off. So in this case we can't kill the people who get it. Read my other rant. Nothing makes sense.

We can't afford to leave this mess up to the current management. In good times they didn't get it so what makes you think they'll be able to plan something during this sort of situation. The current plan being developed is very radical but it can be achieved.

It's time we really got serious and move with a different sort of leadership. Rome is burning

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Berri & others, Heather Simpson - Helen Clarks PR adviser is who's pushing spin to Bloomfield...

Look them both up, David Clark has sat on Simpson's Health report.

There's also good info in fyi.org about the state of our hospitals/ health system.

Incidentally, the Matamata cluster with younger ones, were they using or exposed to E-cigarettes / Vapes?

Or did they just stay out at night in summer clothing & have a flu virus??

It must be disclosed what questions are been asked of those in clusters...and in general terms in the best interests of all people world wide.

 

There was a case in USA reported to FDA in June -August 2019 where a cluster of 150 people who were using Vapes / E cigs had similar symptoms to that of Corona virus.

 

In Italy they have no regulations, Singapore they are included with Tobacco legislation. Most countries have no regulations, including in public places, hospitals airports....

 

Italy also has been installing HVAC systems in hospitals the last couple of years...look up the research papers about microbes sitting in there systems...Europe is coming out of winter.

 

Far too many questions & variables to be answered.

 

Thank goodness for those who exercise common sense & get outdoors on sunny days like today to kill any "viruses" which die within 72hours.

 

Looking forward to the disposal of the lack of common sense.

 

Btw, Real Doctors who interact with real patients know, and we were taught at school to stay home when we have viruses and go out in the sun to kill germs, a practice that's been in existence since lord knows when.

 

The Ak uni academics behind this COVID19  virus scaremongerring research appear to be the same names behind methaphetamine in rentals fiasco and that of Mbovis.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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16 minutes ago, meomy said:

Berri & others, Heather Simpson - Helen Clarks PR adviser is who's pushing spin to Bloomfield...

Look them both up, David Clark has sat on Simpson's Health report.

There's also good info in fyi.org about the state of our hospitals/ health system.

Incidentally, the Matamata cluster with younger ones, were they using or exposed to E-cigarettes / Vapes?

Or did they just stay out at night in summer clothing & have a flu virus??

It must be disclosed what questions are been asked of those in clusters...and in general terms in the best interests of all people world wide.

 

There was a case in USA reported to FDA in June -August 2019 where a cluster of 150 people who were using Vapes / E cigs had similar symptoms to that of Corona virus.

 

In Italy they have no regulations, Singapore they are included with Tobacco legislation. Most countries have no regulations, including in public places, hospitals airports....

 

Italy also has been installing HVAC systems in hospitals the last couple of years...look up the research papers about microbes sitting in there systems...Europe is coming out of winter.

 

Far too many questions & variables to be answered.

 

Thank goodness for those who exercise common sense & get outdoors on sunny days like today to kill any "viruses" which die within 72hours.

 

Looking forward to the disposal of the lack of common sense.

 

Btw, Real Doctors who interact with real patients know, and we were taught at school to stay home when we have viruses and go out in the sun to kill germs, a practice that's been in existence since lord knows when.

 

The Ak uni academics behind this COVID19  virus scaremongerring research appear to be the same names behind methaphetamine in rentals fiasco and that of Mbovis.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Are you in an archery club Meomy? A few long bows being drawn here. You are correct though that Clark and Simpson are pulling all the strings of the puppet Ardern.

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7 hours ago, chevy86 said:

Are you in an archery club Meomy? A few long bows being drawn here. You are correct though that Clark and Simpson are pulling all the strings of the puppet Ardern.

Chevy86, It's incredible the info one finds that others put about themselves online.

We used related key words to find the info we did , sorry about not putting them up but restricted access to computer at the mo.

Mix n mingle with others in the international arena to know what's going on.

 Seen all the spin reports pop up with same names popping up.

China incidentally have over 40,000 people manufacturing e-cigs/ vapes & the impact on vulnerable people's lungs & respiratory systems & heart when exposed to the 2nd hand impacts on ones health.

 It's a known fact they are commonly used by younger generations in front of others without thinking about impacts.

As an aside, The Spirit & Intent of the Public Health Act Guidelines are both readily available online.

 

Bloomfield and David Clark have much to be answerable for as that legislation primarily relates to Infected persons  NOT those who may or probably have Covid 19 - which by the way the symptoms they describe are alike to FDA case & Vapes.

 

Take note how many times they use the word "must".

They are omitting to include "reasonableness" and "may" both of which are legal terms to ensure "grey areas" in law to advance with appeals of decisions.

Write to your MP and ask questions about why we  are in an arbitrary lock down when based on the balance of probabilities most of us don't have any symptoms, nor are we likely to get Covid19.

 

Social Media / Podcaster Academics have much to answer for.

 

 

 

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