RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
scooby3051

THIS IS SERIOUS PEOPLE MAKE NO MISTAKE

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16 hours ago, The Fokkers Nemesis said:

Sure, thank your god of choice (I don’t have one, I find religion ridiculous) that our current government (which I personally wouldn’t vote for, for all the tea in Ceylon) values life.

 

It’s chalk and cheese Fokker. NZ an island. Nation with a population less than Melb. Close the borders and you will be safe. Aust has hundreds of thousands of multicultural ethnics returning from China, Italy, Spain, USA etc, so it’s a much bigger job. Aust also has a Constitution which limits the powers of the Fed Govt over State Govts. Morrison is acting on advice from the “Experts” and operating a coordinated response with the States via a “National Cabinet”. This has never been done before. Millions are out of work but the govt has been quick to offer assistance financially. It’s a tough gig and I think he and the State Premiers are doing a great job. My daughter has been forced to close her business. With one phone call she’s been given a 3month “pause” on he home mortgage. One call and she will get a fortnitely payment from the gov to help pay her groceries bill etc. one call and her rent was cancelled on her business premise. One call and she can (if necessary) access her Super without penalty. No, I think Morrison and the State Premiers are working well together and listening to the “right advice” - free from emotive reactions.

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The number of people who die will depend on the care they get (if they need it) post catching it. Statistically 4.5m people, 80% getting it, with a 4.0% death rate =144,000. So to get 80,000 he must think that 1.78% of those who catch it die. A little low based on the statistics. Currently there are 660,150 reported cases with 30,642 deaths (4.64%). You'd have to say that a lot of those are due to the lack of medical assistance and equipment, hence the political solution of shutting down to keep up with the hospital beds

 

 

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55 minutes ago, Trump said:

It’s chalk and cheese Fokker. NZ an island. Nation with a population less than Melb. Close the borders and you will be safe. Aust has hundreds of thousands of multicultural ethnics returning from China, Italy, Spain, USA etc, so it’s a much bigger job. Aust also has a Constitution which limits the powers of the Fed Govt over State Govts. Morrison is acting on advice from the “Experts” and operating a coordinated response with the States via a “National Cabinet”. This has never been done before. Millions are out of work but the govt has been quick to offer assistance financially. It’s a tough gig and I think he and the State Premiers are doing a great job. My daughter has been forced to close her business. With one phone call she’s been given a 3month “pause” on he home mortgage. One call and she will get a fortnitely payment from the gov to help pay her groceries bill etc. one call and her rent was cancelled on her business premise. One call and she can (if necessary) access her Super without penalty. No, I think Morrison and the State Premiers are working well together and listening to the “right advice” - free from emotive reactions.

As they say Trumpy...” You can tell an Aussie, but you can’t tell ‘em much....”. ;)

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46 minutes ago, Ohokaman said:

As they say Trumpy...” You can tell an Aussie, but you can’t tell ‘em much....”. ;)

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The photos a week old O’son. Beaches in Sydney are small and able to be fenced off. Which They are now. 

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1 hour ago, Berri said:

The number of people who die will depend on the care they get (if they need it) post catching it. Statistically 4.5m people, 80% getting it, with a 4.0% death rate =144,000. So to get 80,000 he must think that 1.78% of those who catch it die. A little low based on the statistics. Currently there are 660,150 reported cases with 30,642 deaths (4.64%).

Lies, damn lies and ............

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1 hour ago, crustyngrizzly said:

Another expert on tv1 this morning claimed that if NZ hadn't gone into lockdown then 80000 people could have died.

When asked how many would die now that we were in lockdown he didn't have a clue.

So the reality is 80000 could still die.

An educated guess is under a 1,000, mostly elderly or immune suppressed. This is a worse case scenario, more likely is a couple of hundred, which in our small country will not be taken well, especially when we did have a chance of shutting shop back in early January.

The measures been taken now are like a school teacher punishing a child, OBEY or you will be contained and ridiculed. They not based on any serious study, as shown by the constant changing of numbers 500 -400 - 10 ?  or considerations of the future. 

They talk about Uniting and in the same breath, promote narking on your neighbour or anyone else that deems their rules unacceptable. 

When this is over and the count is low, they will pat them selves on the arse and reflect how THEY saved everyone, on the other hand if it goes pear shaped they will blame US, forgetting they were the ones who fudged up so badly at the start.   

 

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From John Hopkins Hospital.
The following is from Irene Ken physician, whose daughter is an Asst. Prof in infectious diseases at Johns Hopkins University, quite informative.

* The virus is not a living organism, but a protein molecule (DNA) covered by a protective layer of lipid (fat), which, when absorbed by the cells of the ocular, nasal or buccal mucosa, changes their genetic code. (mutation) and convert them into aggressor and multiplier cells.

* Since the virus is not a living organism but a protein molecule, it is not killed, but decays on its own. The disintegration time depends on the temperature, humidity and type of material where it lies.

* The virus is very fragile; the only thing that protects it is a thin outer layer of fat. That is why any soap or detergent is the best remedy, because the foam CUTS the FAT (that is why you have to rub so much: for 20 seconds or more, to make a lot of foam).

By dissolving the fat layer, the protein molecule disperses and breaks down on its own.

* HEAT melts fat; this is why it is so good to use water above 25 degrees Celsius for washing hands, clothes and everything. In addition, hot water makes more foam and that makes it even more useful.

* Alcohol or any mixture with alcohol over 65% DISSOLVES ANY FAT, especially the external lipid layer of the virus.

* Any mix with 1 part bleach and 5 parts water directly dissolves the protein, breaks it down from the inside.

* Oxygenated water helps long after soap, alcohol and chlorine, because peroxide dissolves the virus protein, but you have to use it pure and it hurts your skin.

* NO BACTERICIDE OR ANTIBIOTIC SERVES. The virus is not a living organism like bacteria; antibodies cannot kill what is not alive.

* NEVER shake used or unused clothing, sheets or cloth. While it is glued to a porous surface, it is very inert and disintegrates only
-between 3 hours (fabric and porous),
-4 hours (copper and wood)
-24 hours (cardboard),
- 42 hours (metal) and
-72 hours (plastic).

But if you shake it or use a feather duster, the virus molecules float in the air for up to 3 hours, and can lodge in your nose.

* The virus molecules remain very stable in external cold, or artificial as air conditioners in houses and cars.

They also need moisture to stay stable, and especially darkness. Therefore, dehumidified, dry, warm and bright environments will degrade it faster.

* UV LIGHT on any object that may contain it breaks down the virus protein. For example, to disinfect and reuse a mask is perfect. Be careful, it also breaks down collagen (which is protein) in the skin.

* The virus CANNOT go through healthy skin.

* Vinegar is NOT useful because it does not break down the protective layer of fat.

* NO SPIRITS, NOR VODKA, serve. The strongest vodka is 40% alcohol, and you need 65%.

* LISTERINE IF IT SERVES! It is 65% alcohol.

* The more confined the space, the more concentration of the virus there can be. The more open or naturally ventilated, the less.

* You have to wash your hands before and after touching mucosa, food, locks, knobs, switches, remote control, cell phone, watches, computers, desks, TV, etc. And when using the bathroom.

* You have to HUMIDIFY HANDS DRY from so much washing them, because the molecules can hide in the micro cracks. The thicker the moisturizer, the better.

* Also keep your NAILS SHORT so that the virus does not hide there.

-JOHNS HOPKINS HOSPITAL

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3 hours ago, Berri said:

The number of people who die will depend on the care they get (if they need it) post catching it. Statistically 4.5m people, 80% getting it, with a 4.0% death rate =144,000. So to get 80,000 he must think that 1.78% of those who catch it die. A little low based on the statistics. Currently there are 660,150 reported cases with 30,642 deaths (4.64%). You'd have to say that a lot of those are due to the lack of medical assistance and equipment, hence the political solution of shutting down to keep up with the hospital beds

 

 

And how they are treating them,  they will mostly have serious underlying health issues so its a death sentence to most in that category unfortunately. :rcf-sad-1:

 

4 hours ago, Berri said:

Totally agree. I have no doubt this hasn't been thought through enough. Herd immunity is the only long term course (apart from vaccination) to get back to normal. All of this lock down is a political solution to attempt to restrict visual social media from displaying the short comings of a health system in disarray and the inability for governments to efficiently manage health outbreaks such as pandemics. We should have been prepared but we weren't. We had plenty of notice (SARS, MERS, Ebola etc) but no notice was taken. Even when the reports of a potential pandemic in China was in play, our health officials ignored it. The government ignored it. 

So this lock down is all about mitigating the risk of social discord and buying time because we weren't prepared. Hollywood even beat governments to it. Now to the facts:

Health Condition                   Period *            Registered Infections                    Deaths                      % Deaths to Registered Infections

                                              01-01-2020

Tuberculosis                                                             2,490,000                                 475,000                           15%

Malaria                                                                    17,100,000                                 101,000                            0.50%

Aids                                                                          37,900,000**                             192,500                            0.50%

Influenza                                                                 19,000,000** *                             38,333                            0.20%

C-19                                                                                622,395                                  28,804                            4.60%

Measles                                                                         650,000                                  35,000                            5.30%

* From 2018 figures

** have the disease

*** Estimated as a percentage

So that tells us where we are in terms of other conditions that have been plaguing us over the years. The three that really interest me are TB, Influenza (Flu) and measles as these are viral and have vaccines for them. The Flu interests me because the reason for annual flu jabs is that the flu strain seams to be a 2 yearly mutation. That is why every year they go hard at getting this winter's flu jabs. As we already know that C-19 has had one mutation cycle.

As the new coronavirus continues to spread around the globe, researchers say the virus is changing its genetic makeup slightly. "Viruses mutate naturally as part of their life cycle," says Ewan Harrison, scientific project manager for the COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium, a new project that tracks the virus in the United Kingdom."

So here we are, politically smashing the entire financial environment, which theoretically will cause more deaths than the virus itself. There is a direct correlation between the financial stability of human beings and ill health and death.

So let's keep to the facts. If we have 800 ICU beds available that have respirators, and we have a population of 4.5m and we know that statistically 80% of the population will get this, and we know that 6% will require hospitalisation, then we need 216,000 beds. If the virus cycles every 7 days (mean is 6.8 but there has been one outlier of 27 days - that complicates things somewhat), then to avoid a political and social meltdown of people being cared for in the corridors and lots of dead bodies shown on film, we need 25,000 beds to smash this over 10 weeks. This presumes that we can control the contagion to space the infection exposure to approx 450,000 people per week. Each ICU bed is approx $3500 each so therefore we need  approx $87m for equipment. Say we need places where 200 beds can be put under roof. These places must be able to cater for 200 people for food and ablutions. That means we need 150 facilities that can be converted quickly. We also need say 1 educated helper per 5 beds. That means we need to quickly train 5000 people to work a ICU bed. We also need overseeing doctors and emergency stuff and personnel for when the shit hits the fan with those that should die but can be saved. This equipment and this group of people will be the tricky thing to source. This is where the army comes in. They have a lot of kit that can help but probably not enough. But they do have people with mobilisation knowledge and skills. The rest, we buy. We offer offshore people a fortune to help us for 6 months and we go hard. 

You do realise that our race tracks may have facilities that when converted can help? They have space, kitchens and location. They are invariably attached to a town. Those towns have doctors and I''ll bet you there are volunteers everywhere to be educated, or wish to help. So to the cost?......less than $500m with a bump of three months and it's all over.

Weigh that against 800 beds available during isolation where "hopefully" we'll stamp it out but like measles and TB we won't because we can't have all the borders closed for ever and this virus is seriously contagious. What are we to do in the future? A new virus has come to town. You really think it can be eliminated when measles and TB can't? 

And what of the Spanish Flu that allegedly killed 50m World wide. Have a read

https://www.history.com/topics/world-war-i/1918-flu-pandemic 

This C-19 flu is a different version of it and somehow we have to get resistance to it or subscribe to waiting for a vaccine that may affect us for many years to come. Read about it

Hopkins Research Centre attachment...

I listened to a Zoom cast put on by the Weizmann Institute in Israel. They're probably known around the World as one of the most progressive research centers on the planet. Gates gives them $250m a year. The Zoom Cast had sqillions of viewers. Through Following At Home, they've allegedly linked together 2.1m computers to make the World's largest super computer. They are now open sourcing a collaborative initiative between 2000 scientists and laboratories. Included in the initiative are four of the largest AI and machine learning centers to analysis and process the data being created. There allegedly are over 150 lab simultaneously conducting tests on humanoids to establish what works and what doesn't. There is another set of labs inventing shit that can only be described as a World collaboration. The vaccine that they are attempting to make will be open sourced. No one will own it.  On record is the head of that facility saying that normal vaccines  take 8-10 years to develop and cost $1-1.5b to make. They think they can do it in 4-4 months. The real issue is manufacturing, where he said sourcing the components (set aside the manufacturing) could take a further 4 months. So we at best are in a 8 month hold pattern for a vaccine that has never been delivered in a time from of less than 8 months, but is probably longer.

So for us, we will be locked up, closed down, locked up, and closed down as outbreaks occur. We will not have freedom as we know it until we are all infected or the vaccine arrives in no earlier than 8 months. In the meantime, Rome burns....how do we fund the cost of all of this without ripping everything apart for many years to come?

Racing could play a big part in all of this. I'm currently exploring the ability to link all of us together for a Zoom cast so that we can all get the juices flowing. We have an opportunity here. We just need the right people, the right mandate and the right direction to get things going. I'm not impressed with the level of info and thought by our leaders to this point so we have to take the matter into our own hands.

Sorry for all the spelling mistakes or lack of some grammer but it's Sunday and I feel lazy

 

 

Hopkins Research Centre.docx

 

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Thanks Scooby for that great information.

To those with a “herd mentality” solution I think you would have us dealing with this virus forever. Here’s my logic in support of our current Government measures.

 

The virus decays over time. NZ is an island with no land borders, so it only comes here in infected people. Stop the infected people coming here and passing it on. We missed this chance to stop it in its tracks (hardly surprising given it was likely here undiagnosed before we knew much about it). Still this remains essential and now we have a coordinated approach to keep more of it out or stop it spreading if it gets here.

So accepting the disappointing fact that it was here, stopping it spreading was a no-brainer, only act quickly (unlike Scomo and his mates). This shutdown, as damaging as it is economically, had to be done, immediately it was known that infection was spreading here. Shutdown and hugely increased monitoring will beat this nasty thing.

Yes I do sound like a media release from the Labour Party, but use your own logic and see where it leads.

Heard Nigel Farage speaking on the Australian and UK situations this morning, never followed overseas politics and didn’t actually know much about him, but he talked real sense today.  Those countries will end up in shutdown and the time taken to take the brave decision will mean it will last longer than for us.

My horses are in light work with their local track closed; ready for when racing returns. My bet is NZ will be back racing for many weeks before Australia (who likely won’t be running in a fortnight from now).

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Its here, been here since the first Chinese came back from Christmas holidays, its widespread, and no amount of locking down now is gonna stop it. 

The govt probably had an idea that the numbers were bigger and widespread but choose the b/s route in the hope they wouldn't get caught out, but as I said the truth won't be known until we test EVERYONE NOW. The fact the numbers are much larger and the hospitals aren't overflowing is more than likely that it is NOT Ebola or Smallpox and the death toll will be closer to the normal flu results. 

Every single person that arrived in this country in the last two months should have been detained and isolated, EVERY SINGLE ONE.  Because as the govt has found out, any exception means the plan fails ... 

The absolute bullshite that has been happening at the airports/cruise ports, has and continues to be appalling. Unbelievable that only a week ago you could get past immigration with a "Yes, I will be a good boy/girl" response. 

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So Peter RS, how long do you think this is going to take, where the borders are closed so that no-one pollutes NZ with the virus again? I was an advocate some weeks ago that any person wanting to come in NZ needed to enter quarantine off shore (like our horses) before getting to NZ. Then we have less chance of it getting onshore. The problem is that a surface is enough to infect. What about imported goods? Do they have to go into quarantine? What say this morphs and comes bad a a yearly flu like the Spanish Flu? Do we keep everything closed?

It's all about the hospital beds.

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21 hours ago, Ohokaman said:

This globalist Gates wants to depopulate!

He even gave a speech about it....he controls the vaccines and wants you micro chipped....not gunna end well for Bill

 

 

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No one can predict how long it will take to get to the point where it’s under control. Not eradicated, but entry points controlled properly (none of this voluntary stuff) and urgent testing of every possible transmitted case based on symptoms. No idea how to protect against spit on products.

Plenty of good examples (eg Taiwan) where temperature tests are everywhere people go. I think this will be here for some time as we get back to level 3.
 

Looking forward to a time soon where NZ is racing and it’s all that the Aussies can bet on! That’s our golden opportunity.

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22 minutes ago, Peter R S said:

No one can predict how long it will take to get to the point where it’s under control. Not eradicated, but entry points controlled properly (none of this voluntary stuff) and urgent testing of every possible transmitted case based on symptoms. No idea how to protect against spit on products.

Plenty of good examples (eg Taiwan) where temperature tests are everywhere people go. I think this will be here for some time as we get back to level 3.
 

Looking forward to a time soon where NZ is racing and it’s all that the Aussies can bet on! That’s our golden opportunity.

The concern Peter is whether this becomes a dormant virus that returns at the same time each year. No one really knows the answer to that as it has not been eradicated anywhere yet, and might not be. Millions of lives might depend on us getting that right.

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1 hour ago, Berri said:

So Peter RS, how long do you think this is going to take, where the borders are closed so that no-one pollutes NZ with the virus again? I was an advocate some weeks ago that any person wanting to come in NZ needed to enter quarantine off shore (like our horses) before getting to NZ. Then we have less chance of it getting onshore. The problem is that a surface is enough to infect. What about imported goods? Do they have to go into quarantine? What say this morphs and comes bad a a yearly flu like the Spanish Flu? Do we keep everything closed?

It's all about the hospital beds.

Do you find it interesting we havnt seen or heard of the ‘Spanish Flu ‘ since? Sars or Mers for that matter. Dont get caught up in all this Big Pharma propaganda  Berri, research the 1976  Swine Flu Vaccine Disgrace in the US, one which awakened many who were related to dead or severely compromised individuals, not to mention the tens of thousands plus who became ill .Bill Gates has invested alot of time and money in this field over years and has been experimenting with nanotechnology. He wants a Big return on his investment  and a reduced selective population ....and Adern and Goff want Communism :rcf-sad-7: f%^ksake next few years will be interesting, look for some major law changes effecting your freedom 

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23 minutes ago, Ohokaman said:

The concern Peter is whether this becomes a dormant virus that returns at the same time each year. No one really knows the answer to that as it has not been eradicated anywhere yet, and might not be. Millions of lives might depend on us getting that right.

If this virus has the ability to mask and shows no symptoms in 14 % of the people it infects it can become latent. The Chinese expert and the Harvard microbiologist have already stated its looking very likely shes here to stay, and given the waste of time the Flu vaccine is we need to stay healthy , survival of the fittest as it were, Scarey thought for many :rcf-sad:  Just been through the Forest at Te Arai, behind the sand dunes in the pinestraw ,lines of shithouse paper, old underpants and even the odd Grogan just sitting in plain view.... basic hygiene is essential to stop large numbers of antigens building up in one place. If  you dont know how to dig a small hole to let microbes in the soil  break down your excrement you have no hope....and this happens on every track and Beach in NZ where a public toilet isnt a stones throw. Madness

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Statistically 'thousands of deaths in NZ' is impossible if we look at what is happening around the world.  80000 deaths really!!! We have 1 at this stage.  A load of bollocks by a bunch of modellers/scientists!!  Not every mechanic is a good mechanic!  We had the Tsunami drama, then we had the earthquake drama and if it wasn't for the fact that the Maoris were running the Whakaari stuff we would be having some drama there as well.  We will end up having 'Wash your hands a day' every week until we get bored with that and move on to another calamity!!  Don't get me wrong, I don't want any loss of life anywhere but it seems human nature is looking for anything to get us to the next point!!  My thoughts are with any lives lost through any disease!! 

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10 hours ago, crustyngrizzly said:

Another expert on tv1 this morning claimed that if NZ hadn't gone into lockdown then 80000 people could have died.

When asked how many would die now that we were in lockdown he didn't have a clue.

So the reality is 80000 could still die.

One person has died so far in NZ and in Australia with a population of 26 million 16 deaths

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