Ohokaman 5,841 Report post Posted March 27, 2020 11 minutes ago, Gruff said: No doubt. 14 % of people carry Sars 2 with no symptoms, One pitfall of very condensed populations,add elderly and/or sick to that equation the numbers have to look scarey. Harvard epidemiology professor Mark Lipsitch who has been quite accurate from his early assessment says 70 % of the worlds population could be infected and this will become the 5th seasonal flu, these flus have multiple Ribonucleuicacid strands not singular so will mutate beyond Human interference. Look up Hydoxychloroquine, it seems effective in its ability to stop this virus but interferes with hundreds of drugs prescribed to manage already sick people, not to mention its side effects. Wouldn’t be hanging my hat on that stuff. American Doctor on yesterday mentioned a test study done where those on this drug did worse than those not on it.....that French testing is bullshit. https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/27/we-dont-know-hydroxychloroquine/ Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
von Smallhaussen 3,226 Report post Posted March 27, 2020 1 hour ago, Gruff said: The WHO has been using Africans as Guines pigs for years, I thought they had been using the Irish as Guines pigs Gruff and Pam Robson 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gruff 2,800 Report post Posted March 28, 2020 Im up near Mangawhai, theres 10 carloads of people and no public toilets open? Why didnt they just shut the carpark they will be going in the dunes creating more problems .... nice day butt Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gruff 2,800 Report post Posted March 28, 2020 Theres even two spear fisherman out.... cant blame them but hey Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohokaman 5,841 Report post Posted March 28, 2020 49 minutes ago, Gruff said: Im up near Mangawhai, theres 10 carloads of people and no public toilets open? Why didnt they just shut the carpark they will be going in the dunes creating more problems .... nice day butt Why would they be open...no people are supposed to be there are they ?? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gruff 2,800 Report post Posted March 28, 2020 15 minutes ago, Ohokaman said: Why would they be open...no people are supposed to be there are they ?? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
puha 2,177 Report post Posted March 28, 2020 On 2/3/2020 at 6:56 PM, tripple alliance said: Nothing wrong with nationals shadow minister for racing , that's if you want hands on experience , he's got plenty . Rangitīkei MP Ian McKelvie is the only parliamentarian to have been president of a racing club, to have owned and trained racehorses and who still has trotters in work. He knows how to make a few dollars as well , Ian McKelvie – $68.4Million , On 3/27/2020 at 3:57 PM, Idolmite said: I believe history will prove that New Zealand made far better decisions during this crisis than Australia Could of been far better if the borders were closed weeks ago and all entering quarantined till they were clear . Pretty much 200 people entered NZ unchecked and have caused the following Mayhem. 12 Billion and counting Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
crustyngrizzly 1,701 Report post Posted March 28, 2020 13 minutes ago, Gruff said: An example of JA being kind. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
tasman man 11 979 Report post Posted March 28, 2020 1 hour ago, Gruff said: Theres even two spear fisherman out.... cant blame them but hey I live close to a city beach and on Wednesday the police were constantly around talking to cars who had stopped and moving on people just hanging around beach.....the walkers were OK. Going by your much loved STUFF and Herald websites the casual user around the beach e.g. surfer, paddle boarder etc NOW seems ok. Todays Herald says you can now go to the beach,as long as stay in bubble.....you can even drive to beach now if its local. This is an easing of hardline from yesterday even. Plus they say the Sun is good for you ,bad for virus ! People out and about has been rampant today.....much like normal Much more than past few days. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archer 296 Report post Posted March 28, 2020 20 hours ago, Ohokaman said: Tell that to the Italians...their death rate is over 10% right now. The Italians are practicing Senicide, and the french and spanish are closley following Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fokkers Nemesis 16 Report post Posted March 28, 2020 7 hours ago, Ohokaman said: When you have idiots Trump and Johnson, what do you expect..... https://news.yahoo.com/blas-boris-laughed-off-risks-183748061.html You forgot Morrison, Australia could be a cot case in a month, we have a son and a daughter there and asked them to come home but they’ve made their lives there. Not closing the joint down is a decision they will regret. Baz (NZ) 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fokkers Nemesis 16 Report post Posted March 28, 2020 1 minute ago, poundforpound said: Early call that Maybe read the Economist before you make that call ... they’ve got an excellent piece about mitigation ( flattening the curve ) and isolation that suggests it’s a flawed strategy ... whereas exposing “the herd” to the virus will quickly bring immunity for all, admittedly with significant deaths amongst the aged immuno-compromised community Hindsight is going to be a great thing Sure, thank your god of choice (I don’t have one, I find religion ridiculous) that our current government (which I personally wouldn’t vote for, for all the tea in Ceylon) values life. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad 1,558 Report post Posted March 28, 2020 We have one news going around the country with their reporters reporting how quiet it is,and what may have been on, surely we are not going to get this every night, they will drive us mad, and the rest of the country to. GOM 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Idolmite 2,559 Report post Posted March 28, 2020 2 hours ago, tasman man 11 said: I live close to a city beach and on Wednesday the police were constantly around talking to cars who had stopped and moving on people just hanging around beach.....the walkers were OK. Going by your much loved STUFF and Herald websites the casual user around the beach e.g. surfer, paddle boarder etc NOW seems ok. Todays Herald says you can now go to the beach,as long as stay in bubble.....you can even drive to beach now if its local. This is an easing of hardline from yesterday even. Plus they say the Sun is good for you ,bad for virus ! People out and about has been rampant today.....much like normal Much more than past few days. Yet I saw in today's Herald where it said if you could walk to your local Beach, okay, but if you needed to drive to get there, stay home. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohokaman 5,841 Report post Posted March 28, 2020 Someone who might know what he’s talking about..... https://edition.cnn.com/videos/business/2020/03/27/bill-gates-coronavirus-town-hall-shutdown-april-peak-sot-vpx.cnn Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
100 1 1,386 Report post Posted March 28, 2020 1 hour ago, poundforpound said: Mitigation certainly doesn’t save lives .....it just means less of the vulnerable will die initially, and less strain on the IC units, but the viral infections and epidemics will continue for a far longer period because you have no herd immunity....each time a new epidemic spike occurs the government will enforce another shutdown probably localized, offer more financial aid, borrow against GDP, this causes a weakening of the economy until you see a collapse caused by the yo-yo effect....and then what ? You've still got no immunity .....you’d better hope for a vaccine within a year, or we’re in quite some trouble They have the cure. Your media is not telling you. Ohokaman and arjay 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohokaman 5,841 Report post Posted March 28, 2020 10 minutes ago, 100 1 said: They have the cure. Your media is not telling you. Trump probably invented it...... arjay 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohokaman 5,841 Report post Posted March 28, 2020 For the slow to catch up.... https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/120581185/antivirus-measures-are-too-late-to-stop-needless-sickness-and-economic-pain Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gruff 2,800 Report post Posted March 28, 2020 2 hours ago, poundforpound said: Mitigation certainly doesn’t save lives .....it just means less of the vulnerable will die initially, and less strain on the IC units, but the viral infections and epidemics will continue for a far longer period because you have no herd immunity....each time a new epidemic spike occurs the government will enforce another shutdown probably localized, offer more financial aid, borrow against GDP, this causes a weakening of the economy until you see a collapse caused by the yo-yo effect....and then what ? You've still got no immunity .....you’d better hope for a vaccine within a year, or we’re in quite some trouble Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gruff 2,800 Report post Posted March 28, 2020 Looks familiar Same precautions , far different outcome? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical 49 Report post Posted March 28, 2020 Covid will just be another Infectious Disease on a long Infectious Disease list. We are not going to beat this it will just hang around like Influenza, TB, Hep B, Aids, malaria, measles, meningitis etc....we haven't been able to eradicate these so Covid is here to stay. I am with you departed. She should have closed the borders earlier but was worried that decision would look racist! More worried about what it would look like as opposed to the right thing to do! The economic repercussions are going to be massive. And no I don't want people to die from COVID, no more than I want them to die from cancer or any other illness, but it is going to happen. Locking us down is not the way to do it. There will be more deadly consequences from this than COVID could ever achieve in this country!! Gruff and dock leaf 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gruff 2,800 Report post Posted March 28, 2020 Interesting Retrospective from 2015 Archer 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohokaman 5,841 Report post Posted March 28, 2020 The situation worsens in the US.... ET Source: State and county health departments Since January, health authorities have identified more than 111,000 Covid-19 cases throughout the United States. So far, 1,858 — about 2% — of those patients have died. Reported cases and deaths The figures below are based on data from state and county health departments. These numbers are updated every 10 minutes but may differ from other sources due to differences in reporting times. For up-to-the-minute updates, follow our live coverage. Cases Deaths New York 52,318 728 New Jersey 8,825 108 California 3,801 78 Washington 3,723 175 Michigan 3,657 92 Florida 3,600 53 Louisiana 3,315 127 Massachusetts 3,240 35 Illinois 3,026 34 Pennsylvania 2,751 34 Georgia 2,366 69 Colorado 1,734 31 Texas 1,731 23 Ohio 1,406 25 Connecticut 1,291 27 Tennessee 1,203 6 Maryland 992 5 Indiana 981 24 North Carolina 934 4 Wisconsin 842 13 Arizona 773 15 Virginia 739 17 Missouri 670 9 Mississippi 663 13 Alabama 644 3 Nevada 621 10 South Carolina 539 13 Utah 480 2 Oregon 414 12 Minnesota 398 4 Arkansas 388 3 Oklahoma 377 15 District of Columbia 304 4 Kentucky 302 7 Iowa 298 3 Idaho 230 4 Rhode Island 230 2 Maine 211 1 Kansas 202 4 New Mexico 191 1 New Hampshire 187 2 Vermont 184 10 Delaware 165 2 Montana 121 1 Hawaii 120 0 Puerto Rico 100 3 West Virginia 96 0 Nebraska 89 2 Alaska 85 2 Wyoming 73 0 North Dakota 68 1 South Dakota 58 1 Guam 51 1 US Virgin Islands 19 0 Northern Mariana Islands 2 0 American Samoa 0 0 Repatriations 152 0 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berri 2,131 Report post Posted March 28, 2020 12 hours ago, poundforpound said: Mitigation certainly doesn’t save lives .....it just means less of the vulnerable will die initially, and less strain on the IC units, but the viral infections and epidemics will continue for a far longer period because you have no herd immunity....each time a new epidemic spike occurs the government will enforce another shutdown probably localized, offer more financial aid, borrow against GDP, this causes a weakening of the economy until you see a collapse caused by the yo-yo effect....and then what ? You've still got no immunity .....you’d better hope for a vaccine within a year, or we’re in quite some trouble Totally agree. I have no doubt this hasn't been thought through enough. Herd immunity is the only long term course (apart from vaccination) to get back to normal. All of this lock down is a political solution to attempt to restrict visual social media from displaying the short comings of a health system in disarray and the inability for governments to efficiently manage health outbreaks such as pandemics. We should have been prepared but we weren't. We had plenty of notice (SARS, MERS, Ebola etc) but no notice was taken. Even when the reports of a potential pandemic in China was in play, our health officials ignored it. The government ignored it. So this lock down is all about mitigating the risk of social discord and buying time because we weren't prepared. Hollywood even beat governments to it. Now to the facts: Health Condition Period * Registered Infections Deaths % Deaths to Registered Infections 01-01-2020 Tuberculosis 2,490,000 475,000 15% Malaria 17,100,000 101,000 0.50% Aids 37,900,000** 192,500 0.50% Influenza 19,000,000** * 38,333 0.20% C-19 622,395 28,804 4.60% Measles 650,000 35,000 5.30% * From 2018 figures ** have the disease *** Estimated as a percentage So that tells us where we are in terms of other conditions that have been plaguing us over the years. The three that really interest me are TB, Influenza (Flu) and measles as these are viral and have vaccines for them. The Flu interests me because the reason for annual flu jabs is that the flu strain seams to be a 2 yearly mutation. That is why every year they go hard at getting this winter's flu jabs. As we already know that C-19 has had one mutation cycle. " As the new coronavirus continues to spread around the globe, researchers say the virus is changing its genetic makeup slightly. "Viruses mutate naturally as part of their life cycle," says Ewan Harrison, scientific project manager for the COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium, a new project that tracks the virus in the United Kingdom." So here we are, politically smashing the entire financial environment, which theoretically will cause more deaths than the virus itself. There is a direct correlation between the financial stability of human beings and ill health and death. So let's keep to the facts. If we have 800 ICU beds available that have respirators, and we have a population of 4.5m and we know that statistically 80% of the population will get this, and we know that 6% will require hospitalisation, then we need 216,000 beds. If the virus cycles every 7 days (mean is 6.8 but there has been one outlier of 27 days - that complicates things somewhat), then to avoid a political and social meltdown of people being cared for in the corridors and lots of dead bodies shown on film, we need 25,000 beds to smash this over 10 weeks. This presumes that we can control the contagion to space the infection exposure to approx 450,000 people per week. Each ICU bed is approx $3500 each so therefore we need approx $87m for equipment. Say we need places where 200 beds can be put under roof. These places must be able to cater for 200 people for food and ablutions. That means we need 150 facilities that can be converted quickly. We also need say 1 educated helper per 5 beds. That means we need to quickly train 5000 people to work a ICU bed. We also need overseeing doctors and emergency stuff and personnel for when the shit hits the fan with those that should die but can be saved. This equipment and this group of people will be the tricky thing to source. This is where the army comes in. They have a lot of kit that can help but probably not enough. But they do have people with mobilisation knowledge and skills. The rest, we buy. We offer offshore people a fortune to help us for 6 months and we go hard. You do realise that our race tracks may have facilities that when converted can help? They have space, kitchens and location. They are invariably attached to a town. Those towns have doctors and I''ll bet you there are volunteers everywhere to be educated, or wish to help. So to the cost?......less than $500m with a bump of three months and it's all over. Weigh that against 800 beds available during isolation where "hopefully" we'll stamp it out but like measles and TB we won't because we can't have all the borders closed for ever and this virus is seriously contagious. What are we to do in the future? A new virus has come to town. You really think it can be eliminated when measles and TB can't? And what of the Spanish Flu that allegedly killed 50m World wide. Have a read https://www.history.com/topics/world-war-i/1918-flu-pandemic This C-19 flu is a different version of it and somehow we have to get resistance to it or subscribe to waiting for a vaccine that may affect us for many years to come. Read about it Hopkins Research Centre attachment... I listened to a Zoom cast put on by the Weizmann Institute in Israel. They're probably known around the World as one of the most progressive research centers on the planet. Gates gives them $250m a year. The Zoom Cast had sqillions of viewers. Through Following At Home, they've allegedly linked together 2.1m computers to make the World's largest super computer. They are now open sourcing a collaborative initiative between 2000 scientists and laboratories. Included in the initiative are four of the largest AI and machine learning centers to analysis and process the data being created. There allegedly are over 150 lab simultaneously conducting tests on humanoids to establish what works and what doesn't. There is another set of labs inventing shit that can only be described as a World collaboration. The vaccine that they are attempting to make will be open sourced. No one will own it. On record is the head of that facility saying that normal vaccines take 8-10 years to develop and cost $1-1.5b to make. They think they can do it in 4-4 months. The real issue is manufacturing, where he said sourcing the components (set aside the manufacturing) could take a further 4 months. So we at best are in a 8 month hold pattern for a vaccine that has never been delivered in a time from of less than 8 months, but is probably longer. So for us, we will be locked up, closed down, locked up, and closed down as outbreaks occur. We will not have freedom as we know it until we are all infected or the vaccine arrives in no earlier than 8 months. In the meantime, Rome burns....how do we fund the cost of all of this without ripping everything apart for many years to come? Racing could play a big part in all of this. I'm currently exploring the ability to link all of us together for a Zoom cast so that we can all get the juices flowing. We have an opportunity here. We just need the right people, the right mandate and the right direction to get things going. I'm not impressed with the level of info and thought by our leaders to this point so we have to take the matter into our own hands. Sorry for all the spelling mistakes or lack of some grammer but it's Sunday and I feel lazy Hopkins Research Centre.docx hedley, GOM and Gruff 1 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berri 2,131 Report post Posted March 28, 2020 I left out one part of that table. The period is from 1-1-2010 to now Leggy 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...