RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
scooby3051

THIS IS SERIOUS PEOPLE MAKE NO MISTAKE

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11 minutes ago, Gruff said:

No doubt. 14 % of people carry Sars 2 with no symptoms, One pitfall of very condensed populations,add elderly and/or sick to that equation the numbers have to look scarey. Harvard epidemiology professor Mark  Lipsitch who has been quite accurate from his early assessment says 70 % of the worlds population could be infected and this will become the 5th seasonal flu, these flus have multiple Ribonucleuicacid strands not singular so will mutate beyond Human interference. Look up Hydoxychloroquine, it seems effective in its ability to stop this virus but interferes with hundreds of drugs prescribed to manage already sick people, not to mention its side effects. 

Wouldn’t be hanging my hat on that stuff. American Doctor on yesterday mentioned a test study done where those on this drug did worse than those not on it.....that French testing is bullshit.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/27/we-dont-know-hydroxychloroquine/

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Im up near Mangawhai, theres 10 carloads of people and no public toilets open? Why didnt they just shut the carpark they will be going in the dunes creating more problems .... nice day butt

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49 minutes ago, Gruff said:

Im up near Mangawhai, theres 10 carloads of people and no public toilets open? Why didnt they just shut the carpark they will be going in the dunes creating more problems .... nice day butt

85C1A185-6ACE-4F7A-B69B-3AD33B690EA2.png

Why would they be open...no people are supposed to be there are they ?? :rolleyes:

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On 2/3/2020 at 6:56 PM, tripple alliance said:

Nothing wrong with nationals shadow minister for racing , that's  if you want hands on experience , he's got plenty .

Rangitīkei MP Ian McKelvie is the only parliamentarian to have been president of a racing club, to have owned and trained racehorses and who still has trotters in work. 

He knows how to make a few dollars as well , Ian McKelvie – $68.4Million ,

 

  

 

On 3/27/2020 at 3:57 PM, Idolmite said:

I believe history will prove that New Zealand made far better decisions during this crisis than Australia 

Could of been far better if the borders were closed weeks ago and all entering  quarantined  till they were clear . Pretty much 200 people entered NZ unchecked and have caused the following Mayhem. 12 Billion and counting 

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1 hour ago, Gruff said:

Theres even two spear fisherman out.... cant blame them but hey :rcf-kiss-2:

I live close to a city beach and on Wednesday the police were constantly around talking to cars who had stopped and moving on people just hanging around beach.....the walkers were OK.

Going by your much loved STUFF and Herald websites the casual user around the beach e.g. surfer, paddle boarder etc NOW seems ok.

Todays Herald says you can now go to the beach,as long as stay in bubble.....you can even drive to beach now if its local.

This is an easing of hardline from yesterday even.

Plus they say the Sun is good for you ,bad for virus !

People out and about has been rampant today.....much like normal

Much more than past few days.

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20 hours ago, Ohokaman said:

Tell that to the Italians...their death rate is over 10% right now.

The Italians are practicing Senicide, and the french and spanish are closley following 

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7 hours ago, Ohokaman said:

When you have idiots Trump and Johnson, what do you expect.....

https://news.yahoo.com/blas-boris-laughed-off-risks-183748061.html

You forgot Morrison, Australia could be a cot case in a month, we have a son and a daughter there and asked them to come home but they’ve made their lives there.

Not closing the joint down is a decision they will regret. 
 

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1 minute ago, poundforpound said:

Early call that 

Maybe read the Economist before you make that call ... they’ve got an excellent piece about mitigation ( flattening the curve ) and isolation that suggests it’s a flawed strategy ... whereas exposing “the herd” to the virus will quickly bring immunity for all, admittedly with significant deaths amongst the aged immuno-compromised community 
Hindsight is going to be a great thing 

Sure, thank your god of choice (I don’t have one, I find religion ridiculous) that our current government (which I personally wouldn’t vote for, for all the tea in Ceylon) values life.

 

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We have one news going around the country with their reporters reporting how quiet it is,and what may have been on, surely we are not going to get this every night, they will drive us mad, and the rest of the country to.

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2 hours ago, tasman man 11 said:

I live close to a city beach and on Wednesday the police were constantly around talking to cars who had stopped and moving on people just hanging around beach.....the walkers were OK.

Going by your much loved STUFF and Herald websites the casual user around the beach e.g. surfer, paddle boarder etc NOW seems ok.

Todays Herald says you can now go to the beach,as long as stay in bubble.....you can even drive to beach now if its local.

This is an easing of hardline from yesterday even.

Plus they say the Sun is good for you ,bad for virus !

People out and about has been rampant today.....much like normal

Much more than past few days.

Yet I saw in today's Herald where it said if you could walk to your local Beach, okay, but if you needed to drive to get there, stay home. 

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1 hour ago, poundforpound said:

Mitigation certainly doesn’t save lives .....it just means less of the vulnerable will die initially, and less strain on the IC units, but the viral infections and epidemics will continue for a far longer period because you have no herd immunity....each time a new epidemic spike occurs the government will enforce another shutdown probably localized, offer more financial aid, borrow against GDP, this causes a weakening of the economy until you see a collapse caused by the yo-yo effect....and then what ?

You've still got no immunity .....you’d better hope for a vaccine within a year, or we’re in quite some trouble 

They have the cure. Your media is not telling you.

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2 hours ago, poundforpound said:

Mitigation certainly doesn’t save lives .....it just means less of the vulnerable will die initially, and less strain on the IC units, but the viral infections and epidemics will continue for a far longer period because you have no herd immunity....each time a new epidemic spike occurs the government will enforce another shutdown probably localized, offer more financial aid, borrow against GDP, this causes a weakening of the economy until you see a collapse caused by the yo-yo effect....and then what ?

You've still got no immunity .....you’d better hope for a vaccine within a year, or we’re in quite some trouble 

58A5823D-86B0-41A7-84A3-39AE10AD6D7E.png

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Covid will just be another Infectious Disease on a long Infectious Disease list.  We are not going to beat this it will just hang around like Influenza, TB, Hep B, Aids, malaria, measles, meningitis etc....we haven't been able to eradicate these so Covid is here to stay.  I am with you departed.  She should have closed the borders earlier but was worried that decision would look racist!  More worried about what it would look like as opposed to the right thing to do!  The economic repercussions are going to be massive.  And no I don't want people to die from COVID, no more than I want them to die from cancer or any other illness, but it is going to happen.  Locking us down is not the way to do it. There will be more deadly consequences from this than COVID could ever achieve in this country!! 

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The situation worsens in the US....

  • ET
  • Source: State and county health departments

Since January, health authorities have identified more than 111,000 Covid-19 cases throughout the United States. So far, 1,858 — about 2% — of those patients have died.

Reported cases and deaths

The figures below are based on data from state and county health departments. These numbers are updated every 10 minutes but may differ from other sources due to differences in reporting times. For up-to-the-minute updates, follow our live coverage.

  Cases Deaths
New York 52,318 728
New Jersey 8,825 108
California 3,801 78
Washington 3,723 175
Michigan 3,657 92
Florida 3,600 53
Louisiana 3,315 127
Massachusetts 3,240 35
Illinois 3,026 34
Pennsylvania 2,751 34
Georgia 2,366 69
Colorado 1,734 31
Texas 1,731 23
Ohio 1,406 25
Connecticut 1,291 27
Tennessee 1,203 6
Maryland 992 5
Indiana 981 24
North Carolina 934 4
Wisconsin 842 13
Arizona 773 15
Virginia 739 17
Missouri 670 9
Mississippi 663 13
Alabama 644 3
Nevada 621 10
South Carolina 539 13
Utah 480 2
Oregon 414 12
Minnesota 398 4
Arkansas 388 3
Oklahoma 377 15
District of Columbia 304 4
Kentucky 302 7
Iowa 298 3
Idaho 230 4
Rhode Island 230 2
Maine 211 1
Kansas 202 4
New Mexico 191 1
New Hampshire 187 2
Vermont 184 10
Delaware 165 2
Montana 121 1
Hawaii 120 0
Puerto Rico 100 3
West Virginia 96 0
Nebraska 89 2
Alaska 85 2
Wyoming 73 0
North Dakota 68 1
South Dakota 58 1
Guam 51 1
US Virgin Islands 19 0
Northern Mariana Islands 2 0
American Samoa 0 0
Repatriations 152 0

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12 hours ago, poundforpound said:

Mitigation certainly doesn’t save lives .....it just means less of the vulnerable will die initially, and less strain on the IC units, but the viral infections and epidemics will continue for a far longer period because you have no herd immunity....each time a new epidemic spike occurs the government will enforce another shutdown probably localized, offer more financial aid, borrow against GDP, this causes a weakening of the economy until you see a collapse caused by the yo-yo effect....and then what ?

You've still got no immunity .....you’d better hope for a vaccine within a year, or we’re in quite some trouble 

Totally agree. I have no doubt this hasn't been thought through enough. Herd immunity is the only long term course (apart from vaccination) to get back to normal. All of this lock down is a political solution to attempt to restrict visual social media from displaying the short comings of a health system in disarray and the inability for governments to efficiently manage health outbreaks such as pandemics. We should have been prepared but we weren't. We had plenty of notice (SARS, MERS, Ebola etc) but no notice was taken. Even when the reports of a potential pandemic in China was in play, our health officials ignored it. The government ignored it. 

So this lock down is all about mitigating the risk of social discord and buying time because we weren't prepared. Hollywood even beat governments to it. Now to the facts:

Health Condition                   Period *            Registered Infections                    Deaths                      % Deaths to Registered Infections

                                              01-01-2020

Tuberculosis                                                             2,490,000                                 475,000                           15%

Malaria                                                                    17,100,000                                 101,000                            0.50%

Aids                                                                          37,900,000**                             192,500                            0.50%

Influenza                                                                 19,000,000** *                             38,333                            0.20%

C-19                                                                                622,395                                  28,804                            4.60%

Measles                                                                         650,000                                  35,000                            5.30%

* From 2018 figures

** have the disease

*** Estimated as a percentage

So that tells us where we are in terms of other conditions that have been plaguing us over the years. The three that really interest me are TB, Influenza (Flu) and measles as these are viral and have vaccines for them. The Flu interests me because the reason for annual flu jabs is that the flu strain seams to be a 2 yearly mutation. That is why every year they go hard at getting this winter's flu jabs. As we already know that C-19 has had one mutation cycle.

As the new coronavirus continues to spread around the globe, researchers say the virus is changing its genetic makeup slightly. "Viruses mutate naturally as part of their life cycle," says Ewan Harrison, scientific project manager for the COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium, a new project that tracks the virus in the United Kingdom."

So here we are, politically smashing the entire financial environment, which theoretically will cause more deaths than the virus itself. There is a direct correlation between the financial stability of human beings and ill health and death.

So let's keep to the facts. If we have 800 ICU beds available that have respirators, and we have a population of 4.5m and we know that statistically 80% of the population will get this, and we know that 6% will require hospitalisation, then we need 216,000 beds. If the virus cycles every 7 days (mean is 6.8 but there has been one outlier of 27 days - that complicates things somewhat), then to avoid a political and social meltdown of people being cared for in the corridors and lots of dead bodies shown on film, we need 25,000 beds to smash this over 10 weeks. This presumes that we can control the contagion to space the infection exposure to approx 450,000 people per week. Each ICU bed is approx $3500 each so therefore we need  approx $87m for equipment. Say we need places where 200 beds can be put under roof. These places must be able to cater for 200 people for food and ablutions. That means we need 150 facilities that can be converted quickly. We also need say 1 educated helper per 5 beds. That means we need to quickly train 5000 people to work a ICU bed. We also need overseeing doctors and emergency stuff and personnel for when the shit hits the fan with those that should die but can be saved. This equipment and this group of people will be the tricky thing to source. This is where the army comes in. They have a lot of kit that can help but probably not enough. But they do have people with mobilisation knowledge and skills. The rest, we buy. We offer offshore people a fortune to help us for 6 months and we go hard. 

You do realise that our race tracks may have facilities that when converted can help? They have space, kitchens and location. They are invariably attached to a town. Those towns have doctors and I''ll bet you there are volunteers everywhere to be educated, or wish to help. So to the cost?......less than $500m with a bump of three months and it's all over.

Weigh that against 800 beds available during isolation where "hopefully" we'll stamp it out but like measles and TB we won't because we can't have all the borders closed for ever and this virus is seriously contagious. What are we to do in the future? A new virus has come to town. You really think it can be eliminated when measles and TB can't? 

And what of the Spanish Flu that allegedly killed 50m World wide. Have a read

https://www.history.com/topics/world-war-i/1918-flu-pandemic 

This C-19 flu is a different version of it and somehow we have to get resistance to it or subscribe to waiting for a vaccine that may affect us for many years to come. Read about it

Hopkins Research Centre attachment...

I listened to a Zoom cast put on by the Weizmann Institute in Israel. They're probably known around the World as one of the most progressive research centers on the planet. Gates gives them $250m a year. The Zoom Cast had sqillions of viewers. Through Following At Home, they've allegedly linked together 2.1m computers to make the World's largest super computer. They are now open sourcing a collaborative initiative between 2000 scientists and laboratories. Included in the initiative are four of the largest AI and machine learning centers to analysis and process the data being created. There allegedly are over 150 lab simultaneously conducting tests on humanoids to establish what works and what doesn't. There is another set of labs inventing shit that can only be described as a World collaboration. The vaccine that they are attempting to make will be open sourced. No one will own it.  On record is the head of that facility saying that normal vaccines  take 8-10 years to develop and cost $1-1.5b to make. They think they can do it in 4-4 months. The real issue is manufacturing, where he said sourcing the components (set aside the manufacturing) could take a further 4 months. So we at best are in a 8 month hold pattern for a vaccine that has never been delivered in a time from of less than 8 months, but is probably longer.

So for us, we will be locked up, closed down, locked up, and closed down as outbreaks occur. We will not have freedom as we know it until we are all infected or the vaccine arrives in no earlier than 8 months. In the meantime, Rome burns....how do we fund the cost of all of this without ripping everything apart for many years to come?

Racing could play a big part in all of this. I'm currently exploring the ability to link all of us together for a Zoom cast so that we can all get the juices flowing. We have an opportunity here. We just need the right people, the right mandate and the right direction to get things going. I'm not impressed with the level of info and thought by our leaders to this point so we have to take the matter into our own hands.

Sorry for all the spelling mistakes or lack of some grammer but it's Sunday and I feel lazy

 

 

Hopkins Research Centre.docx

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