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Corona Virus Impact on Racing

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Yeah the reality is that we should have stopped all travel from China immediately, say Jan 5th or earlier (still too late because the Chinese have been hiding this for a lot longer than the official response) and closed the borders completely by the end of that week. But that is by the by now, as the virus is in and replicating. The current situation in regards to responding is way too late and largely inefficient. Whats the difference between a football match and 1,000 office workers in a building, are we going to stop people going to work ?  Then as panic ensues, nobody wanting to work in factories, shopping malls  ........  :rcf-shocked-3:

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16 minutes ago, Phar Lap Fan said:

Like the government telling all tourists to self-isolate for 14 days. 

Yes telling people to self isolate is an even bigger joke, no one is going to volunteerly  self isolate, and then WHY self isolate if others ain't ? 

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3 minutes ago, Archer said:

Yeah the reality is that we should have stopped all travel from China immediately, say Jan 5th or earlier (still too late because the Chinese have been hiding this for a lot longer than the official response) and closed the borders completely by the end of that week. But that is by the by now, as the virus is in and replicating. The current situation in regards to responding is way too late and largely inefficient. Whats the difference between a football match and 1,000 office workers in a building, are we going to stop people going to work ?  Then as panic ensues, nobody wanting to work in factories, shopping malls  ........  :rcf-shocked-3:

On the contrary Archer, we need this virus here during our summer months when our population is at their healthiest and immune systems boosted

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In the short term anyway the biggest impact on racing will be:

a. Many people will have less disposable income and most will see a reduction in their wealth. Betting turnover will plummet.

b. The TAB will see their income from sports betting disappear.

c. People will cancel SKY subscriptions and will not be able to see raing live. This will also impact on turnover.

d. Stakes will be drastically cut in 2020/2021 season, if not before.

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Yeah, except summers over and our flu season is upon us, wonder how many people will get an early flu shot this year?

We all moving to Great Barrier island to stay at uncle Bills place, I will see the survivors next March ... :rcfe-laughing:    

 

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9 minutes ago, Archer said:

Yeah, except summers over and our flu season is upon us, wonder how many people will get an early flu shot this year?

We all moving to Great Barrier island to stay at uncle Bills place, I will see the survivors next March ... :rcfe-laughing:    

 

Our flu season peaks  in August. Winter on Barrier not everyones cup of tea,and you still get plenty of visitors all year around...if hes got a secret hut on little Barrier your talking Turkey . The Claris medical centre not much chop either

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On 3/13/2020 at 3:26 PM, slam dunk said:

I posted in the wrong thread. i am proposing that all jumps racing be suspended for this season and replaced with flat races for jumpers.

One of the reasons being aleviating stress on hospitals with injuries. Does anyone agree?

no..unless you suspend all contact sports

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That is the next step, stopping all visitors to the island  ... :) 

Sun, sand, surf, plenty of pigs and fish for food and quite a few homebrewers  ... ;) 

 

In reality this could be the prime example of looking at the problem, all the locals coming home would be isolated and everyone on the island could be screened! 

darn, talking sense once again, when most people can only see devastation ...  :rcf-thinking-1:

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9 hours ago, Archer said:

You got it wrong, I meant seasonal flu for a game, which probably happens a lot, maybe not 10%, but you get the drift and WHO is talking about 100.000 at Wembley ? 

You said football , that draws big crowds . I know no one turns up to sport here so social distancing easy . I think I see what your saying , life got to go on to certain degree but I firmly believe to look after our more vulnerable loved ones from the unknown what's being done is correct . Just a pause , to buy more time to get the country's shit together and use our location to our advantage .Imho I think it's being run quite well, iam getting rid of sky sport for  so money in my back pocket too. 

Racing actually could provide some normality through this crisis if they play it right , no crowds mainly anyway,  made for TV action . Non of the pros would need much training on infection control, they could teach the rest of us some basics , they do it every day with the horses .

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6 minutes ago, Red Rum said:

Racing actually could provide some normality through this crisis if they play it right , no crowds mainly anyway,  made for TV action

Red Rum. Who is going to watch racing if a significant portion of people cancel their SKY subscription?

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7 minutes ago, talk said:

Red Rum. Who is going to watch racing if a significant portion of people cancel their SKY subscription?

No way ever cancelling sky subscription for me  , just sky sport . But you have a valid point here . Racing should work  like mad and get in on free TV anyway anyhow at least for a short while . It's just giving people some normality and live sport .I think racing will come out ok , big breeders selling next year at Karaka maybe not so . 

I'd be looking at a cheap Proiser filly at the moment , don't worry about the plodding dam side , look at Levante .

Racing even in dark times there's always something  to look forward to , even if it's 6 races with plodders at Rotorua Wednesday. 

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Why oh why is racing not on free to air TV? I hate Sky with a passion, only reason I have it is for racing. Please, please someone get it back to free to air.

And Proisir? Well what about the 2nd and 3rd in the Oaks. (speaking through my pocket, but Vancooga's run from second last was heart attack stuff) Proisir could be the next really good sire. 

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1 hour ago, Archer said:

That is the next step, stopping all visitors to the island  ... :) 

Sun, sand, surf, plenty of pigs and fish for food and quite a few homebrewers  ... ;) 

 

In reality this could be the prime example of looking at the problem, all the locals coming home would be isolated and everyone on the island could be screened! 

darn, talking sense once again, when most people can only see devastation ...  :rcf-thinking-1:

Youve sold me on it, right i better get in touch with Peter Baker and Crayfish :rcfe-like:

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One jockey goes down with it and its game over. Given all the sport that has been cancelled and NZTAB will be revisiting revenue and profit figures very soon if not already. And ,NO, its not their fault , just a reasonable outcome to a potentially dire viral outbreak.

Given its a global event the chances of providing substitute products to gamble on are diminishing by the day

 

Greg

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2 minutes ago, JJ Flash said:

One jockey goes down with it and its game over. Given all the sport that has been cancelled and NZTAB will be revisiting revenue and profit figures very soon if not already. And ,NO, its not their fault , just a reasonable outcome to a potentially dire viral outbreak.

Given its a global event the chances of providing substitute products to gamble on are diminishing by the day

 

Greg

Snails cant catch it :rcfe-like:

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2 hours ago, Red Rum said:

I've backed plenty of those .

Geezer from OZ in news in Wellington who may have it sounds like a real winner . The levels of stupid cannot be underestimated in times of crisis .

Hi Red your right its unbelievable that lack of responsibility from this clown .  Cindy is blabing on about what she is going to do blah blah  and nodding her head but the simple thing is people are not tested at the airport ,which would stop them in their tracks. Going down to Tahuranekau next weekend but not holding out much hope there will be races by then ,Cheers BH

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SOBERING POINTS ON CORONAVIRUS>>>>>INTERESTING READING
Re-posting this from a colleague here in Boston. Great summary of how Corona virus is such a problem. 
This is a repost from one of my surgical colleagues Erika Lu Rangel. Thanks Erika and Dr. Silver
Dr. Reem Ghalib summarized 
Dear Friends,
So much confusion, misinformation and denial is bouncing around on social media about the coronavirus that I thought I would try to explain, in plain language, why the experts see this as such an emergency.
You will see the claim online that this virus is a lot like the viruses that cause colds, and that if you get it, it will probably just seem like a bad cold and you are very unlikely to die. Depending on who you are, these statements are probably true. But they are incomplete, and the missing information is the key to understanding the problem.
This is a coronavirus that is new to the human population, jumping into people late last year from some kind of animal, probably at a wildlife market in Wuhan, China. It is related to the viruses that cause colds, and acts a lot like them in many ways. It is very easy to transmit through the respiratory droplets that all of us give off. But nobody has ever been exposed to this before, which means nobody has any immunity to it.
The virus is now moving explosively through the human population. While most people will recover, about 20 percent of the people who catch it will wind up with a serious disease. They will get pneumonia that causes shortness of breath, and they may need hospitalization.
Some of those people will get so sick that they cannot be saved and will die of the pneumonia. The overall death rate for people who develop symptoms seems to be 2 or 3 percent. Once we have enough testing to find out how many people caught the virus but did not develop symptoms, that might come down to about 1 percent, optimistically.
This is a large number. It is at least 10 times higher than the mortality rate for the seasonal flu, for instance, which in some years kills 60,000 or 70,000 Americans. So just on that math, we could be looking at 600,000 or 700,000 dead in the United States. But it gets worse.
Older people with existing health problems are much more vulnerable, on average. The mortality rate of coronavirus among people over age 80 may be 15 or 20 percent. It appears to have 7 or 8 percent mortality for people aged 70 to 79. Here is the terrible part: If you are a healthy younger person, you can catch the virus and, without developing serious symptoms yourself, you can pass it along to older people. In other words, as the virus spreads, it is going to be very easy to go out and catch it, give it to your grandmother and kill her, even though you will not die yourself. You can catch it by touching a door knob or an elevator button.
Scientists measure the spread of an epidemic by a number called R0, or “R naught.” That number is calculated this way: for every person who develops the illness, how many other people do they give it to before they are cured (or dead) and no longer infectious? The R0 for coronavirus, in the absence of a control strategy, appears to be a number close to 3 – maybe a bit higher or lower, but in that ballpark. This is an extremely frightening number for such a deadly disease.
Suppose you catch the virus. You will give it to 3 other people, and they will each give it to three others, and so forth. Here is how the math works, where you, the “index case,” are the first line:
1
3
9
27
81
243
729
2,187
6,561
19,683
59,046
177,147
531,441
1,594,323
4,782,969
14,348,907
So, in just 15 steps of transmission, the virus has gone from just one index case to 14.3 million other people. Those 15 steps might take only a few weeks. The index person may be young and healthy, but many of those 14 million people will be old and sick, and they will likely die because they got a virus that started in one person's throat.
The United States is not at this point yet, with millions infected, as best we can tell. We don’t really know, because our government has failed us. We are many, many weeks behind other countries in rolling out widespread testing, so we don’t really have a clue how far the thing has spread. We do know that cases are starting to pop up all over the place, with many of the people having no known exposure to travelers from China, so that means this virus has escaped into our communities.
We do not have approved treatments, yet. We do not have a vaccine. The only tool we really have now is to try to slow down the chain of transmission.
This can be done. In other words, R0 is not fixed – it can be lowered by control measures. If we can get the number below 1, the epidemic will die out. This is the point of the quarantines and the contact-tracing that you are hearing so much about in the news. But the virus is exploding so fast that we will not have the labor available to trace contacts for much longer, so we have to shift strategies. This has already begun, but we are not doing it fast enough.
It is now likely that the majority of Americans will get this virus. But slowing it down is still crucial. Why? Because the healthcare system has limited resources. We only have about a million hospital beds in America. We have well under a million ventilators. If millions of Americans get sick enough to need treatment, we will have a calamity on our hands. What will happen is a form of battlefield triage, where the doctors focus on trying to treat the young and allow the older people to die.
This is not theoretical. It is already happening in Italy, where people over 65 are being left alone on hospital gurneys to suffocate to death from pneumonia. They basically drown in their own sputum. There is simply not enough medical capacity to take care of them. The United States appears to be about two weeks behind Italy on the epidemic growth curve.
What do we need to do now? We need to cancel all large gatherings – all of them. You have probably seen that the N.B.A. has postponed the rest of its season. Other sporting events, concerts, plays and everything else involving large audiences in a small space – all of it needs to be canceled. Even if these events take place, do not go to them. No lectures, no plays, no movies, no cruises – nothing.
Stay at home as much as possible.Stay out of restaurants. I would cancel any travel that is not absolutely essential. Work from home if you possibly can. You may have to go buy groceries and medicine, of course, but make the trips quick and purposeful. Wash your hands assiduously after you have been in public places, for a full 20 seconds, soaping up thoroughly and being sure to get between the fingers. Sunlight and alcohol will kill the virus.
And please stop passing around statements on social media claiming that the situation is not serious or is being exaggerated. This is a national crisis, and conveying misinformation to your friends and family may put their lives in danger”

Image may contain: flower and plant
 
 

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