RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
Berri

This is how NZ racing is now internationally rated

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Probably not far from being accurate. Out of interest what was Melody Belle's rating before she franked her form in Melbourne?

That may give some guide to any inherent bias in the rating assessments.

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12 hours ago, drewandjo said:

hardly an international rating

I disagree. It's all about franking form and that's where the NZTR is shite. You can't do it. One of the more important cornerstones for the industry.

It's all about career best efforts and comparing them with other horses having career best efforts..

As for Melody Belle, she's interesting. So where was she before and now. Try this...Her first two starts in Aussie

image.png.c41cab450de00af0106feca28f72376a.png

Her win in the Sires Produce was quite good because there are a couple of horses you can frank the international form with. Taking Aim went to Hong Kong after this race. Although Melody Belle beat him, he beat her at their next start. After running 4th in the Danehill (G2), he went to HK where he has won a class 2 but no World beater. Pierata is interesting though, in that his best form is winning the All Aged Stakes beating Osborn Bulls and Seige of Quebec. Osborn Bulls best win was in a group 2 but he finished 2nd behind Sunlight in the Newmarket. Seige of Quebec's best win was in a Group 3 but ran 3rd in the Toorak. So any rating from this form is around 110.

Melody Belle's next crack in Aussie produced the following

image.png.72b0e562df5b3362d26714cb58639180.png

So her rating could not have improved beyond 110 but take in mind that in Alizee's win, Alizee beat Malaguerra and Hartnel over 1200 (not either of these horses best distance) , so Alizee rated 114 at best.

So what about the NZ form...in the Livermol. she beat Peso and Crown Prosecutor. Peso's best win is a listed race and Crown Prosecutor (CP)  since winning the Derby was beaten 12 len by The Autumn Sun. He was rated 120 so CP rated 108 on Aussie run. Hasn't won since.

So now yo9u get to Melody Belles best race, probably the Empire Rose beating Aristia. Aristia's best win was in the Oaks beating Greysful Glamour. Her best win was in the Oaks Trial (L). So the win over Aristia wasn't special.

So to the final start...the real form frank of her career, the McKinnon.  She was beaten by Magic Wand, who is a 3 win from 21 starts filly. Yes she's smart but she was rolled by the likes of Magical, Enable and Sea of Class whenever she met them. She was rated 112 and she beat Melody Belle after having run in the Melbourne Cup and Cox Plate. So where does Melody Belle fit? Well she's no better than Magic Wand on 114.

Then frank the NZ form. If she is rated 114, then Catalyst is rated 110 but I would put a "p" after that rating to express that it should improve. 

You've got to get rid of the emotion and face up to reality...

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4 hours ago, Berri said:

I disagree. It's all about franking form and that's where the NZTR is shite. You can't do it. One of the more important cornerstones for the industry.

It's all about career best efforts and comparing them with other horses having career best efforts..

As for Melody Belle, she's interesting. So where was she before and now. Try this...Her first two starts in Aussie

image.png.c41cab450de00af0106feca28f72376a.png

Her win in the Sires Produce was quite good because there are a couple of horses you can frank the international form with. Taking Aim went to Hong Kong after this race. Although Melody Belle beat him, he beat her at their next start. After running 4th in the Danehill (G2), he went to HK where he has won a class 2 but no World beater. Pierata is interesting though, in that his best form is winning the All Aged Stakes beating Osborn Bulls and Seige of Quebec. Osborn Bulls best win was in a group 2 but he finished 2nd behind Sunlight in the Newmarket. Seige of Quebec's best win was in a Group 3 but ran 3rd in the Toorak. So any rating from this form is around 110.

Melody Belle's next crack in Aussie produced the following

image.png.72b0e562df5b3362d26714cb58639180.png

So her rating could not have improved beyond 110 but take in mind that in Alizee's win, Alizee beat Malaguerra and Hartnel over 1200 (not either of these horses best distance) , so Alizee rated 114 at best.

So what about the NZ form...in the Livermol. she beat Peso and Crown Prosecutor. Peso's best win is a listed race and Crown Prosecutor (CP)  since winning the Derby was beaten 12 len by The Autumn Sun. He was rated 120 so CP rated 108 on Aussie run. Hasn't won since.

So now yo9u get to Melody Belles best race, probably the Empire Rose beating Aristia. Aristia's best win was in the Oaks beating Greysful Glamour. Her best win was in the Oaks Trial (L). So the win over Aristia wasn't special.

So to the final start...the real form frank of her career, the McKinnon.  She was beaten by Magic Wand, who is a 3 win from 21 starts filly. Yes she's smart but she was rolled by the likes of Magical, Enable and Sea of Class whenever she met them. She was rated 112 and she beat Melody Belle after having run in the Melbourne Cup and Cox Plate. So where does Melody Belle fit? Well she's no better than Magic Wand on 114.

Then frank the NZ form. If she is rated 114, then Catalyst is rated 110 but I would put a "p" after that rating to express that it should improve. 

You've got to get rid of the emotion and face up to reality...

Just had a quick look on racenet at the cox plate and mackinnon stakes in which  te akau shark and melody belle ran,going in to those races tas was rated118 and mb 116.Zero group ones against 10 and counting , those doing the ratings need the reality check!

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On 11/29/2019 at 5:09 PM, Nukkledragga said:

Just had a quick look on racenet at the cox plate and mackinnon stakes in which  te akau shark and melody belle ran,going in to those races tas was rated118 and mb 116.Zero group ones against 10 and counting , those doing the ratings need the reality check!

It's not about the number of wins, it's about the pecking order in respect of perceived ability. TAS ran 2nd the Dreamforce in the Tramway carrying half a kilo more than Dreamforce, then ran 2nd to Kolding in the Epsom giving Kolding 4 kgs. Kolding then went on to win the Golden Eagle off 57.5 beating Sunlight carrying 55.5. Sunlight ran 3rd in the Slipper, then won the Coolmore, William Reid and Newmarket. What did Melody Belle beat?

The ratings are fair....

 

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1 hour ago, Berri said:

It's not about the number of wins, it's about the pecking order in respect of perceived ability. TAS ran 2nd the Dreamforce in the Tramway carrying half a kilo more than Dreamforce, then ran 2nd to Kolding in the Epsom giving Kolding 4 kgs. Kolding then went on to win the Golden Eagle off 57.5 beating Sunlight carrying 55.5. Sunlight ran 3rd in the Slipper, then won the Coolmore, William Reid and Newmarket. What did Melody Belle beat?

The ratings are fair....

 

So apart from the number of wins you agree with the rating of TAS @118 as against MB @116...Yes

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1 minute ago, Berri said:

Based on Cox Plate and Mckinnon Stakes form yes. TAS finished in front of Magic Wand carrying 2 kgs more. Magic Wand and Melody Belle at level weights in McKinnon. So I would give TAS 2 lbs (1 kg)

As you know those ratings were BEFORE the 2races you mention.

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16 hours ago, Berri said:

It's not about the number of wins, it's about the pecking order in respect of perceived ability. TAS ran 2nd the Dreamforce in the Tramway carrying half a kilo more than Dreamforce, then ran 2nd to Kolding in the Epsom giving Kolding 4 kgs. Kolding then went on to win the Golden Eagle off 57.5 beating Sunlight carrying 55.5. Sunlight ran 3rd in the Slipper, then won the Coolmore, William Reid and Newmarket. What did Melody Belle beat?

The ratings are fair....

 

It seems that any horses rating is more dependant on what other horses do than what the actual performance might merit.According to the way I understand your explanation melody belle could set a track record here or in aus but would not get a rating upgrade unless the beaten horses did something entirely unrelated to her performance on that day .

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5 minutes ago, Nukkledragga said:

It seems that any horses rating is more dependant on what other horses do than what the actual performance might merit.According to the way I understand your explanation melody belle could set a track record here or in aus but would not get a rating upgrade unless the beaten horses did something entirely unrelated to her performance on that day .

Ratings are derived at from whole stream of info or if decent handicapper it should be  , field strength , manner of victory , trip suitability and so on. There's good Group 1 s and flaky ones . Some stand test of time formwise.  Dettori romped home in 2 runner group 1 a month back in France . The winner can only win but how can anyone rate that Group 1 win as highly as say a Golden Slipper win . If it's just on number of  wins alone every horse rated same , 1 group one win X rating , 2 group 1 wins x rating . It don't work like that nor should it .

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1 hour ago, Red Rum said:

Ratings are derived at from whole stream of info or if decent handicapper it should be  , field strength , manner of victory , trip suitability and so on. There's good Group 1 s and flaky ones . Some stand test of time formwise.  Dettori romped home in 2 runner group 1 a month back in France . The winner can only win but how can anyone rate that Group 1 win as highly as say a Golden Slipper win . If it's just on number of  wins alone every horse rated same , 1 group one win X rating , 2 group 1 wins x rating . It don't work like that nor should it .

The point is about TIME , melody belle could run a fast time but because the opposition is weak her performance does not count ,just as dettori"s is  or was .Te akau shark can run against 'better " opposition in a slower race and get a bigger upgrade because of OTHER info like you say

Info that has nothing to do with the actual performance on the day!

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I think the point RR is making is that you need a set of data to make decisions about ratings. I am a teacher, in charge of literacy at my school. When we try to find out if student X needs extra reading help we get as many data sets as possible, to see if they line up. Once we have 'franked the form', and confirmed our hunch, then we act. 

Something similar applies with these ratings which can be very useful. 

 

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I think some punters put a lot into times , some don't so much . Stone of Folca has world record of 53.69 for five furlongs from 2012 . I wouldn't be confident if he ever ran against a Metro OZ midweek sprinter . It's only a part of puzzle and rating imho .

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18 minutes ago, flockofewes2 said:

I think Blueblood ran 1.07.7 for 1200m at Trentham ..years ago...no one outside of NZ believed it.

Had a look at Stone of Folca , went up to  100 after that blazing run , was 2 from 31 lifetime and two runs after record got 5 lbs off Ortensia and got a look at her backside from a distance at Goodwood .

I think that Argentine horse Paul Harris had 10 or maybe more years back was a world record holder at one point after win at San Isidro a few years before.  Forty something or other it was called,  I recall it was a touch slower here . Came with a story someone told me not sure full guts of it but got kidnapped by gangsters then they tried to get rid of it as police moved in , he had some scars from ordeal I understand .

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10 hours ago, Nukkledragga said:

The point is about TIME , melody belle could run a fast time but because the opposition is weak her performance does not count ,just as dettori"s is  or was .Te akau shark can run against 'better " opposition in a slower race and get a bigger upgrade because of OTHER info like you say

Info that has nothing to do with the actual performance on the day!

Times aren't all that relevant, as long as you are a split second faster than the second fastest horse in the race on the day that is all that matters. You would be better off following harness racing, they love times.

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Franking form is the only way to assess overall ratings. You can't really accurately frank form because the NZTR site is such crap that it becomes difficult. It's not about times, although if a performance existed that was reinforced by additionally running a good time, then it would come into the equation. You can't run a time if you don't have an ultimately perfect (time wise) track, but you can have a horse blitz some of the best horses on the planet and be rated at the top of the tree. The Arc is one of these sort of races. When Dancing Brave won his Arc, it was a top ranking field so he was rated the way he was due to this. 

 

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4 hours ago, Berri said:

Franking form is the only way to assess overall ratings. You can't really accurately frank form because the NZTR site is such crap that it becomes difficult. It's not about times, although if a performance existed that was reinforced by additionally running a good time, then it would come into the equation. You can't run a time if you don't have an ultimately perfect (time wise) track, but you can have a horse blitz some of the best horses on the planet and be rated at the top of the tree. The Arc is one of these sort of races. When Dancing Brave won his Arc, it was a top ranking field so he was rated the way he was due to this. 

 

It is NOT the only way , If you are a regular viewer of racing .com as I am they frequently refer to another rating system known as IVF. This system rates horses against a benchmark which is adjusted to allow for weather /track/ bias etc and is almost immediate ,has no need of any other horses rankings/performances.If you go back to the cox plate tas was rated 118 and the winner lys gracieux 119 but the IVF ratings told a different story, tas's best was 6.7 above benchmark and LG was over 10 or 11 the only horse to come close to a rating like that since winx was hartnell from his epsom win a year ago .The IVF ratings are not perfect but they are another tool we can use

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I'll say it again, franking form is the only way to assess overall ratings. There are a number of bench marks but ultimately it ALWAYS comes down to one performance being compared with another. That is franking the form. You can bring any track type, race condition, bias that you want, but ratings will always come down to a comparative study of various horses being compared to each other. That includes year by year and even generation by generation. 

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I really can't be bothered doing all the research myself, but perhaps Berri could list all of the Australian 3yos that are rated ahead of Catalyst. My own initial thoughts are that Catalyst is obviously a very promising type, but so far he hasn't raced against anything like the quality of 3yos that are going around in Australia, so at this stage of the season it would be totally reasonable to rate him well behind the top Aussies. He may eventually prove to be superior to them, but so far we don't know that.

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Am pretty sure Berri was quoting Timeform Aus listed in the ANZ Bloodstock News. If so the list of 3YOs is:

 

1 EXCEEDANCE 3C Exceed And Excel (AUS)-Bonnie Mac (NZ)(Thorn Park (AUS))  M. & W. & J. HAWKES $1,100,200 125  

YES YES YES 3C Rubick (AUS)-Sin Sin Sin (AUS)(Fantastic Light (USA))  CHRIS WALLER $6,823,700 125

3 BIVOUAC 3C Exceed And Excel (AUS)-Dazzler (AUS)(More Than Ready (USA))  JAMES CUMMINGS $1,130,800 124  

CASTELVECCHIO 3C Dundeel (NZ)-St. Therese (AUS)(Dehere (USA))  RICHARD LITT $956,700 124

5 CONSTANTINOPLE 3C Galileo (IRE)-One Moment In Time (IRE)(Danehill (USA))  D & B HAYES & T DABERNIG $334,100 122  

IL PARADISO 3C Galileo (IRE)-Famous (IRE)(Danehill Dancer (IRE))  A P O'BRIEN $627,800 122

7 CAPE OF GOOD HOPE 3C Galileo (IRE)-Hveger (AUS)(Danehill (USA))  D & B HAYES & T DABERNIG $677,700 120

8 SUPER SETH 3C Dundeel (NZ)-Salutations (AUS)(Redoute's Choice (AUS))  ANTHONY FREEDMAN $1,315,500 118  

YAO DASH 3G Smart Missile (AUS)-Rahy Storm (USA)(Rahy (USA))  G WATERHOUSE & A BOTT $124,500 118

10 ALLIGATOR BLOOD 3G All Too Hard (AUS)-Lake Superior (AUS)(Encosta De Lago (AUS))  DAVID VANDYKE $565,100 117  

FUNSTAR 3F Adelaide (IRE)-Starspangled (IRE)(Danehill (USA))  CHRIS WALLER $426,300 117+

SHADOW HERO 3G Pierro (AUS)-Sookie (AUS)(Casino Prince (AUS))  MARK NEWNHAM $758,600 117+

13 COSMIC FORCE 3C Deep Field (AUS)-Little Zeta (AUS)(Commands (AUS))  PETER & PAUL SNOWDEN $228,200 116  

LOVING GABY 3F I Am Invincible (AUS)-Maastricht (NZ)(Mastercraftsman (IRE))  C. MAHER & D. EUSTACE $1,108,000 116  

ROYAL MEETING 3C Invincible Spirit (IRE)-Rock Opera (SAF)(Lecture (USA))  SAEED BIN SUROOR $18,000 116  

SHARED AMBITION 3G Born To Sea (IRE)-Almansa (IRE)(Dr Devious (IRE))  CHRIS WALLER $189,700 116

17 CATALYST 3G Darci Brahma (NZ)-Evana (NZ)(Entrepreneur (GB))  CLAYTON CHIPPERFIELD $397,800 115  

DALASAN 3C Dalakhani (IRE)-Khandallah (AUS)(Kitten's Joy (USA))  L. MACDONALD & A. GLUYAS $594,000 115  

LIBERTINI 3F I Am Invincible (AUS)-Aloha (AUS)(Encosta De Lago (AUS))  ANTHONY CUMMINGS $375,400 115p

THOUGHT OF THAT 3C So You Think (NZ)-Hold Me Closer (AUS)(Danehill Dancer (IRE))  C. MAHER & D. EUSTACE $230,000 115  

WARNING 3G Declaration Of War (USA)-Livia (AUS)(Galileo (IRE))  ANTHONY FREEDMAN $1,375,400 115

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38 minutes ago, drewandjo said:

Am pretty sure Berri was quoting Timeform Aus listed in the ANZ Bloodstock News. If so the list of 3YOs is:

 

1 EXCEEDANCE 3C Exceed And Excel (AUS)-Bonnie Mac (NZ)(Thorn Park (AUS))  M. & W. & J. HAWKES $1,100,200 125  

YES YES YES 3C Rubick (AUS)-Sin Sin Sin (AUS)(Fantastic Light (USA))  CHRIS WALLER $6,823,700 125

3 BIVOUAC 3C Exceed And Excel (AUS)-Dazzler (AUS)(More Than Ready (USA))  JAMES CUMMINGS $1,130,800 124  

CASTELVECCHIO 3C Dundeel (NZ)-St. Therese (AUS)(Dehere (USA))  RICHARD LITT $956,700 124

5 CONSTANTINOPLE 3C Galileo (IRE)-One Moment In Time (IRE)(Danehill (USA))  D & B HAYES & T DABERNIG $334,100 122  

IL PARADISO 3C Galileo (IRE)-Famous (IRE)(Danehill Dancer (IRE))  A P O'BRIEN $627,800 122

7 CAPE OF GOOD HOPE 3C Galileo (IRE)-Hveger (AUS)(Danehill (USA))  D & B HAYES & T DABERNIG $677,700 120

8 SUPER SETH 3C Dundeel (NZ)-Salutations (AUS)(Redoute's Choice (AUS))  ANTHONY FREEDMAN $1,315,500 118  

YAO DASH 3G Smart Missile (AUS)-Rahy Storm (USA)(Rahy (USA))  G WATERHOUSE & A BOTT $124,500 118

10 ALLIGATOR BLOOD 3G All Too Hard (AUS)-Lake Superior (AUS)(Encosta De Lago (AUS))  DAVID VANDYKE $565,100 117  

FUNSTAR 3F Adelaide (IRE)-Starspangled (IRE)(Danehill (USA))  CHRIS WALLER $426,300 117+

SHADOW HERO 3G Pierro (AUS)-Sookie (AUS)(Casino Prince (AUS))  MARK NEWNHAM $758,600 117+

13 COSMIC FORCE 3C Deep Field (AUS)-Little Zeta (AUS)(Commands (AUS))  PETER & PAUL SNOWDEN $228,200 116  

LOVING GABY 3F I Am Invincible (AUS)-Maastricht (NZ)(Mastercraftsman (IRE))  C. MAHER & D. EUSTACE $1,108,000 116  

ROYAL MEETING 3C Invincible Spirit (IRE)-Rock Opera (SAF)(Lecture (USA))  SAEED BIN SUROOR $18,000 116  

SHARED AMBITION 3G Born To Sea (IRE)-Almansa (IRE)(Dr Devious (IRE))  CHRIS WALLER $189,700 116

17 CATALYST 3G Darci Brahma (NZ)-Evana (NZ)(Entrepreneur (GB))  CLAYTON CHIPPERFIELD $397,800 115  

DALASAN 3C Dalakhani (IRE)-Khandallah (AUS)(Kitten's Joy (USA))  L. MACDONALD & A. GLUYAS $594,000 115  

LIBERTINI 3F I Am Invincible (AUS)-Aloha (AUS)(Encosta De Lago (AUS))  ANTHONY CUMMINGS $375,400 115p

THOUGHT OF THAT 3C So You Think (NZ)-Hold Me Closer (AUS)(Danehill Dancer (IRE))  C. MAHER & D. EUSTACE $230,000 115  

WARNING 3G Declaration Of War (USA)-Livia (AUS)(Galileo (IRE))  ANTHONY FREEDMAN $1,375,400 115

Thank you for that Drew. Interesting list. Obviously you could debate a few ratings, Yao Dash a little high, Alligator Blood a little low perhaps, but generally fairly accurate I would suggest.

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