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Baz (NZ)

Awapuni Ratings?

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Horse ratings are something I haven't tried to understand in recent times because it does my head in! :rcf-sad-2:

Looking at Awapuni Noms for the Rating 72 2100m on Thursday I see ....

1.  (1 win) 4yo Mare Luminous $22,500.00 in stakes has a Rating 75?

2.  (4 win) 6yo Gelding  Kamanda Lincoln $80,700.00 in stakes has a Rating 74?

Luminous's 1 win was a Maiden race but seems to have been penalised heavily (21+) for running one 3rd in her 3yo age group race (GR.2 Royal Stakes)
Kamanda Lincoln's 4 wins includes a Rating 82 Win...plus a GR.3 4th placing behind Consensus in the Trentham Stakes and an OPN HCP 3rd placing in the Nathans Memorial at Ellerslie.

What is the strongest form line? My analysis may be wrong? :rcf-thinking-1:

 

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11 hours ago, von Smallhaussen said:

Baz - you are thinking too much - the handicap system is not based on 'thinking'  ;)

Sorry thinking again....:lol:
Further more.... a 2 win horse which hasn't raced for 2 years that I have an interest in.... has been given a 60kg topweight.
More than 5 win and 3 win horses who have earn't double the amount in stakes. :blink:
Go figure? :unsure:

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On 11/11/2019 at 9:43 PM, Baz (NZ) said:

Horse ratings are something I haven't tried to understand in recent times because it does my head in! :rcf-sad-2:

Looking at Awapuni Noms for the Rating 72 2100m on Thursday I see ....

1.  (1 win) 4yo Mare Luminous $22,500.00 in stakes has a Rating 75?

2.  (4 win) 6yo Gelding  Kamanda Lincoln $80,700.00 in stakes has a Rating 74?

Luminous's 1 win was a Maiden race but seems to have been penalised heavily (21+) for running one 3rd in her 3yo age group race (GR.2 Royal Stakes)
Kamanda Lincoln's 4 wins includes a Rating 82 Win...plus a GR.3 4th placing behind Consensus in the Trentham Stakes and an OPN HCP 3rd placing in the Nathans Memorial at Ellerslie.

What is the strongest form line? My analysis may be wrong? :rcf-thinking-1:

 

Luminous copped +21 Rating Points for running 3rd in the Grp 2 Royal Stakes at only her 3rd start when  still a (placed) maiden...Franked that form by winning a maiden 2 starts later and has had only one run (unplaced) since. Kamanda Lincoln has had 34 starts, 17 of them unplaced...clearly the handicapper thinks she's got more going for her than him! Personally, I think 21 points for a Grp 2 2nd against your own age group is a tad harsh. But I'd rather own a slice of her than him!

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16 minutes ago, weasel57 said:

Luminous copped +21 Rating Points for running 3rd in the Grp 2 Royal Stakes at only her 3rd start when  still a (placed) maiden...Franked that form by winning a maiden 2 starts later and has had only one run (unplaced) since. Kamanda Lincoln has had 34 starts, 17 of them unplaced...clearly the handicapper thinks she's got more going for her than him! Personally, I think 21 points for a Grp 2 2nd against your own age group is a tad harsh. But I'd rather own a slice of her than him!

Are ratings done on potential...or what the horse has done on the track previously? :unsure: Obviously not later based on these two runners below?

1.  (1 win) 4yo Mare Luminous $22,500.00 in stakes has a Rating 75? - A MAIDEN WINNER

2.  (4 win) 6yo Gelding  Kamanda Lincoln $80,700.00 in stakes has a Rating 74? - A RATING 82 WINNER

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9 hours ago, Baz (NZ) said:

Are ratings done on potential...or what the horse has done on the track previously? :unsure: Obviously not later based on these two runners below?

1.  (1 win) 4yo Mare Luminous $22,500.00 in stakes has a Rating 75? - A MAIDEN WINNER

2.  (4 win) 6yo Gelding  Kamanda Lincoln $80,700.00 in stakes has a Rating 74? - A RATING 82 WINNER

you missed my point...+21 for a Grp 2 3rd at start 3 ...clearly seen as the equivalent of winning a Maiden and R65...and she has been unplaced only once so is holding her rating. KL o the other hand has been well tried and at 50% of his starts earned nothing.

 

 

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Happens most places , run out of  class and take a chance , place and get valuable black type for filly or close up and rating gets bumped up without win cheque . Horse called Dragon Dancer was beaten in photo by Sir Percy in Epsom  Derby as a maiden , was rated 119 during 3 yo  season  but  still finished season a maiden , as it was he won a race as a  four year old , got within 4 lengths of an Arc winner and never ran in a handicap . He's earning money at stud now .Connections could have pot hunted through maiden,  made use of a decent mark through handicaps to decent festival handicap  and then  hope to go pattern company . They rolled dice , got big black type , if it runs 5th close up  instead of 2nd its unplaced Derby but blows mark to bits for little long term gain   . As long as horse does not sit on a big mark for prolonged periods when clearly uncompetitive at that mark it's not a problem but some seem to get stuck way too high for too long .

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dare I mention Aalaalune ...consecutive black type placings as a 2yo bumped Rating up +21 to 68, the Grp 1 placing up again to 77 after the Sistema Stakes. Hasn't been able to win a Maiden,  ad the system reflects that cos it has dropped 10 pts since, having placed 4th (maiden), 10th (3yo f Stakes race), 4th (maiden) in last three starts. now Rating 67.

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20 minutes ago, Baz (NZ) said:

Hmmm....well the handicapper has rated our horse as topweight and the bookies have us as the rank outsider!. Who is  right? :rcf-laughing-2:

Both imho , long layoff to overcome but cannot run your rating down in spelling paddock . Looks like got the maiden win and got mark, then excuses next up and after he crept down few points after not too bad efforts then up for win and layoff . Looks like a decent horse to be in on if it can get going again raceday . Good luck anyway . Handicapper should have few looks at horse like that rather than months on end  as should be apparent reasonably early if he retains any ability as clearly has had an issue .

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