flockofewes2

~the Cox plate..intriguing..

96 posts in this topic

Feet on the ground lads...

Lys Gracieux winner of 3 group ones from 19 starts. Cox Plate plus 2 in Japan. Ventured across the ditch to Hong Kong twice and beaten into 2nd both times. Beaten by Exultant first time and Win Bright and Exultant the second time so Exultant is the form franker. Exultant ran 3rd to Churchill in the Irish 2000 Guineas and then got rolled by Benbatl in the Hampton Court. Exultant got best rating of 129 when beating Rise High and Dark Dream at his last start but that's a bollocks rating. How could he be rated above Beauty Generation?!?. Rise High won a group 3 in Ireland and Dark Dream won the Queensland Derby. Every time Exultant ran into Beauty Generation, he got smashed...as did Rise High and Dark Dream. Beauty Generation rated 127. 

So Lys Gracieux cannot be rated more than Beauty Generation (127), Benbatl (123),  or Exultant, and with Magic Wand (rated 111 and really a three year old) only 1/2 behind TAS, then TAS is sitting on 118p because Lys Gracieux made them look second rate, was only 1 in front of TAS at the 1000m mark and went round the field vs TAS's saloon run where Moses was on his side.

So TAS has still got to improve to be a top class international......just my opinion

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7 hours ago, Berri said:

Feet on the ground lads...

Lys Gracieux winner of 3 group ones from 19 starts. Cox Plate plus 2 in Japan. Ventured across the ditch to Hong Kong twice and beaten into 2nd both times. Beaten by Exultant first time and Win Bright and Exultant the second time so Exultant is the form franker. Exultant ran 3rd to Churchill in the Irish 2000 Guineas and then got rolled by Benbatl in the Hampton Court. Exultant got best rating of 129 when beating Rise High and Dark Dream at his last start but that's a bollocks rating. How could he be rated above Beauty Generation?!?. Rise High won a group 3 in Ireland and Dark Dream won the Queensland Derby. Every time Exultant ran into Beauty Generation, he got smashed...as did Rise High and Dark Dream. Beauty Generation rated 127. 

So Lys Gracieux cannot be rated more than Beauty Generation (127), Benbatl (123),  or Exultant, and with Magic Wand (rated 111 and really a three year old) only 1/2 behind TAS, then TAS is sitting on 118p because Lys Gracieux made them look second rate, was only 1 in front of TAS at the 1000m mark and went round the field vs TAS's saloon run where Moses was on his side.

So TAS has still got to improve to be a top class international......just my opinion

She must be close/higher than Benbatl now Berri...rated 119 before Saturday which was equivalent to Benbatl at 123 with sex allowance.

A mystery how TAS is apparently so close to her....how many Group Ones has he won.....??

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55 minutes ago, Ohokaman said:

She must be close/higher than Benbatl now Berri...rated 119 before Saturday which was equivalent to Benbatl at 123 with sex allowance.

A mystery how TAS is apparently so close to her....how many Group Ones has he 

We can only wonder yet what Almond Eye ran to last night , wow that's some horse .

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3 hours ago, Ohokaman said:

She must be close/higher than Benbatl now Berri...rated 119 before Saturday which was equivalent to Benbatl at 123 with sex allowance.

A mystery how TAS is apparently so close to her....how many Group Ones has he won.....??

Well not 100% sure of that. When Benbatl won the Dubai World Cup, he rolled Vivos (by 3 1/4) and Deidre (by 3 1/2). That day Benbatl rated 114. Vivios ran 3 1/2 length 2nd to Beauty Generation in HK and 3 1/2 behind Win Bright in another race. As Benbatl's form now includes a Deidre frank, Deidre ran 3rd and 4th to Magical. Magical beat Magic Wand by 2 lengths. who finished 1/2 behind TAS. As my previous post indicated, Lys Gracieux was beaten by Exultant who's form can be franked against Benbatl, Beauty Generation, Vivios and Deidre. You couldn't rate Lys Gracieux higher than 122 and she made the rest look pedestrian.

.Not taking anything away from Calcavecchio, he's top class and is improving. Was a big ask the way he was ridden but not good enough against the winner. . He should be standing in NZ when his racing is finished.

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1 hour ago, Berri said:

Well not 100% sure of that. When Benbatl won the Dubai World Cup, he rolled Vivos (by 3 1/4) and Deidre (by 3 1/2). That day Benbatl rated 114. Vivios ran 3 1/2 length 2nd to Beauty Generation in HK and 3 1/2 behind Win Bright in another race. As Benbatl's form now includes a Deidre frank, Deidre ran 3rd and 4th to Magical. Magical beat Magic Wand by 2 lengths. who finished 1/2 behind TAS. As my previous post indicated, Lys Gracieux was beaten by Exultant who's form can be franked against Benbatl, Beauty Generation, Vivios and Deidre. You couldn't rate Lys Gracieux higher than 122 and she made the rest look pedestrian.

.Not taking anything away from Calcavecchio, he's top class and is improving. Was a big ask the way he was ridden but not good enough against the winner. . He should be standing in NZ when his racing is finished.

Greg Carpenter made the comment prior to the Cox Plate....he said based on that rating she should be winning by 2 lengths.

He was pretty much spot on.

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58 minutes ago, Ohokaman said:

Greg Carpenter made the comment prior to the Cox Plate....he said based on that rating she should be winning by 2 lengths.

He was pretty much spot on.

 Not sure about Carpenter’s judgement ... he consistently gets the NH autumn three year olds form wrong and hands them easy victories every year ... can’t imagine the NH racing industry being quite so benevolent in reverse 

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5 hours ago, Leggy said:

How do you work that out?

 

JMHO based on who finished behind both of them. TAS was canned by many prior to the race and based on his Epsom 2nd and a “last to 3rd” CP run, he’s definitely improved on his NZ Form. 

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2 hours ago, Ohokaman said:

Greg Carpenter made the comment prior to the Cox Plate....he said based on that rating she should be winning by 2 lengths.

He was pretty much spot on.

All the big punters agreed with him and I doubt a single bookie escaped the bloodbath. 

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9 hours ago, Berri said:

Well not 100% sure of that. When Benbatl won the Dubai World Cup, he rolled Vivos (by 3 1/4) and Deidre (by 3 1/2). That day Benbatl rated 114. Vivios ran 3 1/2 length 2nd to Beauty Generation in HK and 3 1/2 behind Win Bright in another race. As Benbatl's form now includes a Deidre frank, Deidre ran 3rd and 4th to Magical. Magical beat Magic Wand by 2 lengths. who finished 1/2 behind TAS. As my previous post indicated, Lys Gracieux was beaten by Exultant who's form can be franked against Benbatl, Beauty Generation, Vivios and Deidre. You couldn't rate Lys Gracieux higher than 122 and she made the rest look pedestrian.

.Not taking anything away from Calcavecchio, he's top class and is improving. Was a big ask the way he was ridden but not good enough against the winner. . He should be standing in NZ when his racing is finished.

Berri, I think you can acknowledge that she continues to improve, so the race of a while back is not the benchmark for judgement calls. She has now fully matured, as was evident in her condition and as a rule Hearts Cry stock improve with age. Outstanding effort to win, but have a look at Almond Eye running 1.56.2, pure class.......  cheers John

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Totally agree that horses improve with age as they actually get faster with age. Strangely enough this was the topic of another post where scientific evidence indicated that our horses didn't reach full speed potential until they were 5-6. As a refresher here are the study results. Maybe the old timers knew what they were talking about when they didn't race their horses early

image.thumb.png.660495e5496da60627d76ecabadea208.png

In this instance though, even though she is older, you have other horses competing against each other (franking the form) that indicate, on the face of it, that the improvement is only minor (any improvement is great) as Magic Wand is the recent benchmark. Having been thrashed by Magical (123), you can line up the form correctly. Magical is very good (ran 10l behind Waldgist in this year's Arc) but every time she ran into Enable, she got thrashed. So if Enable is 127 (average) and Magical is 122 (average) then Magic Wand is running to 112 before the Cox Plate. She can't improve that much in 1 month, so the form rating stands. So the winner Lys Gracieux cannot be more than Magical (122) and her recent previous form would indicate this. So this may have been a career best (visually), so I don't think the improvement that you are looking for is there. That's why at the moment TAS is not yet as good as most think he is. He's a good horse but he is not yet a messiah.

This is what franking of form is all about...

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56 minutes ago, Berri said:

Totally agree that horses improve with age as they actually get faster with age. Strangely enough this was the topic of another post where scientific evidence indicated that our horses didn't reach full speed potential until they were 5-6. As a refresher here are the study results. Maybe the old timers knew what they were talking about when they didn't race their horses early

image.thumb.png.660495e5496da60627d76ecabadea208.png

In this instance though, even though she is older, you have other horses competing against each other (franking the form) that indicate, on the face of it, that the improvement is only minor (any improvement is great) as Magic Wand is the recent benchmark. Having been thrashed by Magical (123), you can line up the form correctly. Magical is very good (ran 10l behind Waldgist in this year's Arc) but every time she ran into Enable, she got thrashed. So if Enable is 127 (average) and Magical is 122 (average) then Magic Wand is running to 112 before the Cox Plate. She can't improve that much in 1 month, so the form rating stands. So the winner Lys Gracieux cannot be more than Magical (122) and her recent previous form would indicate this. So this may have been a career best (visually), so I don't think the improvement that you are looking for is there. That's why at the moment TAS is not yet as good as most think he is. He's a good horse but he is not yet a messiah.

This is what franking of form is all about...

Good to read your commentary. Very enjoyable. But re TAS, I don’t think anybody has called him a champion or messiah etc. You’re right he is a “good horse”. He’s one of the better NZ bred and trained horses with the potential to go on, especially after his Close Epsom Hcp 2nd place and his last to 3rd CP run. 

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Agree entirely Trump. We've had a number of Melbourne Cup winners in the past that still haven't been hailed as Champions. Over-exaggeration seems to be commonplace these days.

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22 minutes ago, Ohokaman said:

Almond Eye...1.56.2........:rcf-shocked-5:

56.2

Three back on damline Sex Appeal ,a  name that sticks in head for few reasons . For racing reasons she produced El Gran Senor a superstar and one of my all time  favorite racehorses  , in Sangster colours he won a vintage guineas in 84 then went to Derby . Stamina doubts , AtTalaq led the way Pat Eddery cruised up double handfu l looking around trying to conserve his tank  but Secreto trained by Vincent O'BRIEN 's son Charles battled hard and  nosed him on line . 

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6 hours ago, Red Rum said:

Three back on damline Sex Appeal ,a  name that sticks in head for few reasons . For racing reasons she produced El Gran Senor a superstar and one of my all time  favorite racehorses  , in Sangster colours he won a vintage guineas in 84 then went to Derby . Stamina doubts , AtTalaq led the way Pat Eddery cruised up double handfu l looking around trying to conserve his tank  but Secreto trained by Vincent O'BRIEN 's son Charles battled hard and  nosed him on line . 

Its weird Rummy , The Japs have been trained up to winning 1.31 miles and 2200 2.10s like its normal.... they hit down under and think its a workout? In NZ its about the jocks ,if the race  was actually on here who can foot it?  I can remember Eva Graces 2.12 inthe Avondale Cup 20 + years back how does  that relate in Japan ? .... probably not bad remembering Horlicks who wasnt exactly the best at the time over 2400... Lance so good that day :rcfe-like:

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So we talking Stand starts to mobile :rcf-rich-1: 

luckily i worked that  out when i was 15, 1 second  ten metres from a Stand.... Corndale could compete but that year was without a winter :rcfe-like:

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12 hours ago, Gruff said:

Its weird Rummy , The Japs have been trained up to winning 1.31 miles and 2200 2.10s like its normal.... they hit down under and think its a workout? In NZ its about the jocks ,if the race  was actually on here who can foot it?  I can remember Eva Graces 2.12 inthe Avondale Cup 20 + years back how does  that relate in Japan ? .... probably not bad remembering Horlicks who wasnt exactly the best at the time over 2400... Lance so good that day 

Hard run races on flint hard tracks a lot of the time makes for these incredible times as well as that timing system. Luca Cumani's Alkaased beat Horlicks world record in Japan Cup when he held out Hearts Cry , he didn't ever post a time anywhere near that in UK or France .  Course characteristics play a big role in UK and Ire , more varied race tactics and going never as firm as Japan. 

Dubai Turf run at Meydan since 2010, Almond Eye  third fastest winning time . Looking at those winners, if they raced she'd be 1.20  to win even using Ladbrokes boost option .

They are still buying into European stallions that on course would never have run  the times recorded by their home bred stallions .

Nothing will touch her in Japan Cup.

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