RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
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~the Cox plate..intriguing..

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1 hour ago, Ohokaman said:

Yes, Lys Gracieux lived up to all the hype, second rated them really..another great Damian Lane ride..is he on fire or what...??!

The Shark coming home for a break now, think they know he will be better with time.

Loving this international racing week after  week at Carnival nowdays . 

Raheen House in at Bendigo midweek , will improve no doubt , Haggas is a top notch have trainer . Dr Drill light years behind him in UK but they have got him flying in Oz and will be a big danger.  Few out of form horses filling out noms .

Looking out for Walton Street , sure I read Godolphin had him out here .

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A lot of observers were quite vocal in their comments re TAS’s eligibility to be included in the CP field. He absolutely vindicated the Clubs judgement with a stunning performance from last to 3rd, thanks to a top ride by OPB. He was only beaten by the 3rd highest rated horse in Japan and a classy 3yo he had to give 10 kilos to. He smashed the rest of the field, including The Horse Stoppers “best horse in Australia & Winx heir”! Great performance by TAS. 

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11 hours ago, Red Rum said:

Makes be kind of believe the hype a wee bit Blue , they really looking after him instead of racing arse off him . QE2 in April worth 4 mill. Others will be pleased to see him on plane home .

need to remember he had a serious injury last year...they are probably erring on the side of caution with him and want to avoid hard tracks. He'll still have to improve some to get past these Japanese horses!

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25 minutes ago, Trump said:

A lot of observers were quite vocal in their comments re TAS’s eligibility to be included in the CP field. He absolutely vindicated the Clubs judgement with a stunning performance from last to 3rd, thanks to a top ride by OPB. He was only beaten by the 3rd highest rated horse in Japan and a classy 3yo he had to give 10 kilos to. He smashed the rest of the field, including The Horse Stoppers “best horse in Australia & Winx heir”! Great performance by TAS. 

Not sure he smashed 114 rated Magic Wand , half length in front of her and she's a non winner this year . If TAS is that good , I think he's very good no doubt , surely those handicappers up north have under rated poor old Magic Wand but I hear it said they overate their wfa horses  .

Surely his inclusion should have caused debate , a non Group 1 winner , non wfa performer , no races at distance why would it not . Proved his worth though,  good on  them.

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Let's keep the TAS performance in perspective. Yes, it was a top run in an international field - and OP got a dream passage on/near the rail to save many lengths  - but he didn't win, in fact was well beaten by a horse that also drew wide, hadnt had a lead-up run in Oz, had some traffic to negotiate from a midfield position and showed brilliant acceleration on that tight turning track to win easily.

All the honours are with the winner imo.

 

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22 minutes ago, weasel57 said:

Let's keep the TAS performance in perspective. Yes, it was a top run in an international field - and OP got a dream passage on/near the rail to save many lengths  - but he didn't win, in fact was well beaten by a horse that also drew wide, hadnt had a lead-up run in Oz, had some traffic to negotiate from a midfield position and showed brilliant acceleration on that tight turning track to win easily.

All the honours are with the winner imo.

 

I don't think that's fair. After the draw he was given no chance by many. Bosson snagged him to the rear and was patient. From last at the school to 3rd first time at valley...first time 10f. Beating all the hype Aussie horses (avilius...MJ)...quite a performance. Also that rail lane didn't produce many winners after 16 races in two days. 

Very good run from a very good horse.

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Imho Magic Wand is the yardstick here, like Benbatl last year  , she's run in US, Dubai, Ire and UK this year and normally bar one big forget run gives her usual honest race .I think we can awesome she is exposed and the handicapper has her number as he or she has so many  lines . She's 114. To get on top 50 world  list is about the 120 mark . Anyone have an opinion what mark the Shark will be given . I would guess winner way superior yesterday , take out three year old as too early to account for merits of that crop v elders ,   drawn wide but lovely rails run , Magic Wand had good run too so TAS 118  maybe , but he has tread left on those tyres.

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27 minutes ago, Red Rum said:

Imho Magic Wand is the yardstick here, like Benbatl last year  , she's run in US, Dubai, Ire and UK this year and normally bar one big forget run gives her usual honest race .I think we can awesome she is exposed and the handicapper has her number as he or she has so many  lines . She's 114. To get on top 50 world  list is about the 120 mark . Anyone have an opinion what mark the Shark will be given . I would guess winner way superior yesterday , take out three year old as too early to account for merits of that crop v elders ,   drawn wide but lovely rails run , Magic Wand had good run too so TAS 118  maybe , but he has tread left on those tyres.

Lys Gracieux was a special on ratings alone RR....her International rating was 119 so equivalent to a male on 123 with sex allowance.

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34 minutes ago, Red Rum said:

Imho Magic Wand is the yardstick here, like Benbatl last year  , she's run in US, Dubai, Ire and UK this year and normally bar one big forget run gives her usual honest race .I think we can awesome she is exposed and the handicapper has her number as he or she has so many  lines . She's 114. To get on top 50 world  list is about the 120 mark . Anyone have an opinion what mark the Shark will be given . I would guess winner way superior yesterday , take out three year old as too early to account for merits of that crop v elders ,   drawn wide but lovely rails run , Magic Wand had good run too so TAS 118  maybe , but he has tread left on those tyres.

My comments re “smashed the rest” probably should be taken in context re the run. TAS gave the entire field a start at the 800m and passed all but 2 horses - and was still strong on the line. Imho, the best run of the race aside from the winner - who was in another class. TAS also ran down and passed Magic Wand in the straight. At the 800m, TAS was 2 lengths behind the winner and finished within 4 lengths across the line. The winner in another class but TAS clearly better than the rest. 

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Fantastic effort from the Shark and great ride from Opie Bosson. 

The commentator didn't call the Shark's name between the 800m mark and the finishing post despite the fact it was clear he was going to run a drum coming to the home turn.  Same old Aussies :)

But the winner - oh my .........

 

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2 hours ago, weasel57 said:

Let's keep the TAS performance in perspective. Yes, it was a top run in an international field - and OP got a dream passage on/near the rail to save many lengths  - but he didn't win, in fact was well beaten by a horse that also drew wide, hadnt had a lead-up run in Oz, had some traffic to negotiate from a midfield position and showed brilliant acceleration on that tight turning track to win easily.

 All the honours are with the winner imo.

It can still be a good run while getting beaten by a better horse. We knew if the real LG turned up it would be a race for second. TAS beat all else but the 3yo. He got a nice run (was also held up coming into the straight) but for a horse who drew the carpark and was maligned by some for even making the field it was a good effort first time at 2000m wfa. 

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1 hour ago, poundforpound said:

Give up Trump

Their opinions only matter if they can back those opinions up with achievements

Racing is all about opinions , no sport left if no one ventured an opinion and it was countered by another opinion with a bit of to and throw , is that not what betting is and the fun of it is    ? . I have discussed racing with a murderer many years back   , he knew his form  , but not sure he ever raced one let alone a good one  and not sure a racing post was supplied with his toothbrush and one phonecall every two weeks for his 25 stretch.We were at odds though as  he slagged off Mouse Roberts , he was an awesome jockey .

This site bloody good  for bit of to and throw imho.

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1 minute ago, poundforpound said:

I should’ve added that you’re certainly not a niller RR, you have great knowledge and I’m guessing considerable hands on experience in the game 

Shit scared of the big buggers, iam a quick pat on the neck and escape man   , had me hands on plenty losing tickets over many years though sadly  , and few bills but it's all good fun . Enjoy conversing on here with others who have the same love of it all. Roll on Derby Day  and Breeders Cup next weekend .

TAS gives us something,  when carnival over we will be looking forward to Sydney in April and lead in with some local interest in the real big ones .

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5 hours ago, Red Rum said:

Imho Magic Wand is the yardstick here, like Benbatl last year  , she's run in US, Dubai, Ire and UK this year and normally bar one big forget run gives her usual honest race .I think we can awesome she is exposed and the handicapper has her number as he or she has so many  lines . She's 114. To get on top 50 world  list is about the 120 mark . Anyone have an opinion what mark the Shark will be given . I would guess winner way superior yesterday , take out three year old as too early to account for merits of that crop v elders ,   drawn wide but lovely rails run , Magic Wand had good run too so TAS 118  maybe , but he has tread left on those tyres.

Hey Rummy how did Magic Wand rate against Highland reel who had some interesting US form before the 2015 Cox? 

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15 minutes ago, Gruff said:

Hey Rummy how did Magic Wand rate against Highland reel who had some interesting US form before the 2015 Cox? 

Highland Reel cut above MW  , French Derby form, hosed home stateside in the 3 yo race Ballydoyle always target with lot success on Arlington Million Day .He was out as 3 year old trying to do the Adelaide double Chicago and Melbourne but looking back now he was up against it a wee bit with Winx .He was a great racehorse , always on a plane .

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Feet on the ground lads...

Lys Gracieux winner of 3 group ones from 19 starts. Cox Plate plus 2 in Japan. Ventured across the ditch to Hong Kong twice and beaten into 2nd both times. Beaten by Exultant first time and Win Bright and Exultant the second time so Exultant is the form franker. Exultant ran 3rd to Churchill in the Irish 2000 Guineas and then got rolled by Benbatl in the Hampton Court. Exultant got best rating of 129 when beating Rise High and Dark Dream at his last start but that's a bollocks rating. How could he be rated above Beauty Generation?!?. Rise High won a group 3 in Ireland and Dark Dream won the Queensland Derby. Every time Exultant ran into Beauty Generation, he got smashed...as did Rise High and Dark Dream. Beauty Generation rated 127. 

So Lys Gracieux cannot be rated more than Beauty Generation (127), Benbatl (123),  or Exultant, and with Magic Wand (rated 111 and really a three year old) only 1/2 behind TAS, then TAS is sitting on 118p because Lys Gracieux made them look second rate, was only 1 in front of TAS at the 1000m mark and went round the field vs TAS's saloon run where Moses was on his side.

So TAS has still got to improve to be a top class international......just my opinion

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7 hours ago, Berri said:

Feet on the ground lads...

Lys Gracieux winner of 3 group ones from 19 starts. Cox Plate plus 2 in Japan. Ventured across the ditch to Hong Kong twice and beaten into 2nd both times. Beaten by Exultant first time and Win Bright and Exultant the second time so Exultant is the form franker. Exultant ran 3rd to Churchill in the Irish 2000 Guineas and then got rolled by Benbatl in the Hampton Court. Exultant got best rating of 129 when beating Rise High and Dark Dream at his last start but that's a bollocks rating. How could he be rated above Beauty Generation?!?. Rise High won a group 3 in Ireland and Dark Dream won the Queensland Derby. Every time Exultant ran into Beauty Generation, he got smashed...as did Rise High and Dark Dream. Beauty Generation rated 127. 

So Lys Gracieux cannot be rated more than Beauty Generation (127), Benbatl (123),  or Exultant, and with Magic Wand (rated 111 and really a three year old) only 1/2 behind TAS, then TAS is sitting on 118p because Lys Gracieux made them look second rate, was only 1 in front of TAS at the 1000m mark and went round the field vs TAS's saloon run where Moses was on his side.

So TAS has still got to improve to be a top class international......just my opinion

She must be close/higher than Benbatl now Berri...rated 119 before Saturday which was equivalent to Benbatl at 123 with sex allowance.

A mystery how TAS is apparently so close to her....how many Group Ones has he won.....??

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55 minutes ago, Ohokaman said:

She must be close/higher than Benbatl now Berri...rated 119 before Saturday which was equivalent to Benbatl at 123 with sex allowance.

A mystery how TAS is apparently so close to her....how many Group Ones has he 

We can only wonder yet what Almond Eye ran to last night , wow that's some horse .

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3 hours ago, Ohokaman said:

She must be close/higher than Benbatl now Berri...rated 119 before Saturday which was equivalent to Benbatl at 123 with sex allowance.

A mystery how TAS is apparently so close to her....how many Group Ones has he won.....??

Well not 100% sure of that. When Benbatl won the Dubai World Cup, he rolled Vivos (by 3 1/4) and Deidre (by 3 1/2). That day Benbatl rated 114. Vivios ran 3 1/2 length 2nd to Beauty Generation in HK and 3 1/2 behind Win Bright in another race. As Benbatl's form now includes a Deidre frank, Deidre ran 3rd and 4th to Magical. Magical beat Magic Wand by 2 lengths. who finished 1/2 behind TAS. As my previous post indicated, Lys Gracieux was beaten by Exultant who's form can be franked against Benbatl, Beauty Generation, Vivios and Deidre. You couldn't rate Lys Gracieux higher than 122 and she made the rest look pedestrian.

.Not taking anything away from Calcavecchio, he's top class and is improving. Was a big ask the way he was ridden but not good enough against the winner. . He should be standing in NZ when his racing is finished.

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