RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
flockofewes2

~the Cox plate..intriguing..

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After/Winx ..this CP has a maximum field.Black Heart Bart has paid a late entry and tomorrow we will know if the 'great thinkers' gamble has paid off and TAS makes the field.Aussie media says no..but

discretion rules.The Japanese entry Lys Gracieux has firmed since the CC ,an easy win for the compatriot.Castelvechio's trainer is very bullish and given the results of the last big weight 4 age races in Melbourne  it is understandable.Great race coming up.:rcf-favorite:

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1 hour ago, flockofewes2 said:

After/Winx ..this CP has a maximum field.Black Heart Bart has paid a late entry and tomorrow we will know if the 'great thinkers' gamble has paid off and TAS makes the field.Aussie media says no..but

discretion rules.The Japanese entry Lys Gracieux has firmed since the CC ,an easy win for the compatriot.Castelvechio's trainer is very bullish and given the results of the last big weight 4 age races in Melbourne  it is understandable.Great race coming up.:rcf-favorite:

Castelvechio couldn't win the CP unless it's next year already (just my opinion). From what I've seen so far he doesn't have the tactical speed to negotiate The Valley's tight corners. Race will be all over by the time he winds up. Nice stayer in the making though, poss ATC Derby winner.

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23 minutes ago, Trump said:

Watch for Verry Elleegant to circle the field from the 400m and do a “Battle Heights” (but not 8 wide as he was!). Best local chance and set for it by CJW. Another D Weir success horse!

Wonder if good old Dazzer used the same training regime on her as he did on Red Cardinal. 

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2 hours ago, Red Rum said:

Wonder if good old Dazzer used the same training regime on her as he did on Red Cardinal. 

Not sure what u are on about? Red Cardinal came from Wohler to Weir and Weir trained it for 6 starts for no wins. 

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5 hours ago, Trump said:

Not sure what u are on about? Red Cardinal came from Wohler to Weir and Weir trained it for 6 starts for no wins. 

Red Cardinal allegedly was the one that had a go on the treadmill with the jigger last spring carnival allegedly with Weir supervising the zapper man , maybe he only did it to the one horse ever in his career  so I retract that it was out of line . He's not been found guilty yet .I was just wondering if he used the same methods .

If he is found guilty though personally I would never champion that bloke until he comes out and shows  real contrition and Very Elleegant wins all credit to Chris Waller zero to Weir imho.

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Even more here....;)

Is the Cox Plate Lys Gracieux’s to lose?

Australian Bloodstock co-founder Luke Murrell, a part-owner of international runner Danceteria, thinks that could be the case.

Murrell spends plenty of time analysing overseas form, including Japanese racing, and said Lys Gracieux’s class and racing style made her extremely tough to beat in The Valley event.

Murrell said Mer De Glace’s Caulfield Cup win only strengthened his thinking.

“On the stuff that I do over there, this horse (Lys Gracieux) has probably got four to six lengths on that horse (Mer De Glace) and they are pretty easy to line up because they race over similar distances,” Murrell said.

“That’s how I have it on my ratings.

“I just don’t know that there’s going to be much pressure on the Japanese horse either. There’s going to be a few factors to overcome.”

Murrell said he expected Danceteria to run a bold race at his Australian debut, which was delayed after mucus in his trachea forced his withdrawal from the Caulfield Stakes.

“Realistically, he’s probably not good enough to beat the Japanese horse but I think he’s good enough to run second,” he said.

“We won’t have any excuses as such. It would have been good to have the lead-up, but he didn’t absolutely need it.

“I think, all things being equal, that she wins just through position in the run. She puts herself there near the lead and we’ll be midfield.”

Murrell said there was a small glimmer of hope for the six-year-old mare’s Cox Plate rivals.

“The only thing against her is that she’s an old mare and the trip to Hong Kong and another one down here, it might not take her much to come into season or something like that,” he said.

“I think Danceteria is better than the rest of them but she’s a genuine good one.”

Jockey Jamie Spencer will again ride Danceteria in the Cox Plate while Damian Lane sticks with Lys Gracieux.

Lys Gracieux is the $3.40 favourite in TAB’s latest Cox Plate market while Danceteria is a $15 chance.

IMG_4193.JPG

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Field just confirmed....

1. Black Heart Bart (11)

2. Avilius  (7)

3. Kluger (9)

4. Harlem (2)

5. Homesman (16)

6. Kings Will Dream (17)

7. Te Akau Shark (18)

8. Danceteria (10)

9. Lys Gracieux (15)

10. Magic Wand (3)

11. Cape of Good Hope (8)

12. Mystic Journey (6)

13. Verry Ellegant (5)

14. Castelvecchio (4)

Emergencies

15. Humidor (14)

16. Mr Quickie (12)

17. Gailo Chop (1)

18. DreamCastle (13)

 

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In theory nice to be able to key into Google and get back ground stories on these gallopers written by proper journalists. AS well quotes from trainers etc.

Instead google bombards us with automated "profiles" from the corporate databases meaning its time consuming wading through all the rubbish. Most annoying and a negative in attracting the once or twice a year racegoer or follower.

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8 hours ago, mckenzie said:

TAS will need a miracle from that draw.

Only Adelaides dominant performance from barrier 13 and Ocean park from 9 in recent 14 horse fields ... We need to see a solid tempo, then miracles can happen :rcfe-like:

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56 minutes ago, Gruff said:

Only Adelaides dominant performance from barrier 13 and Ocean park from 9 in recent 14 horse fields ... We need to see a solid tempo, then miracles can happen :rcfe-like:

Was actually just watching Ocean Park's win, Bossy was great out of the gates getting into a lovely position. I think Bosson has to go straight back from the draw, otherwise will be sitting 4 wide going out of the straight. And then try and get onto the back of the Japanese mare.

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Although going off prematurely is appealing to some, I think that the weather may play its part with rain Friday and a max of 14degrees on Sat. I think that Waller will have Verry Elleegant primed for this and a possible slow track will help her and not help the Japs. TAS is a big chance if he’s ready to run the big race. Imho, this is not a strong Cox Plate. Therefore, Verry Ellegant for me from TAS.

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This looks like Avilius ' main target.Rain would assist him and has a good marble.

Couldn't have Verry Elegant in this company at MV.

Wide draws for a number of leading contenders and a fascinating contest unfolds.Would not be surprised if the 3 y.o tries to lead.

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15 minutes ago, flockofewes2 said:

This looks like Avilius ' main target.Rain would assist him and has a good marble.

Couldn't have Verry Elegant in this company at MV.

Wide draws for a number of leading contenders and a fascinating contest unfolds.Would not be surprised if the 3 y.o tries to lead.

Three times this year TAS could not run down winner at lower grade ,with  longer straights to work with . He has to drop in probably at rear Saturday ,  I cannot see him rounding up the  whole field of WFA horses trained to the minute , it's everyone's grand final and  with only that  short straight to work with ,  slingshot or no slingshot .

Wouldn't mind being proved wrong though as Jamie Richards seems a good guy and gets the ammo but makes use of it . 

COGH ran in same two US races as Adelaide did but didn't do as well. 2014 Adelaide ran second in Belmont Derby , forth that day was Gallo Chop . All these years later he still makes it onto reserves , that's some horse .

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12 hours ago, poundforpound said:

You're onto it...give him a very fast gallop and he's in this up to his neck...he's a natural off pace runner so that draw is not a huge negative

no, but getting a long way back (because of the draw) and getting the breaks at the right time through a max size field IS. I believe TAS will give a good account of himself but will have to be
Phar Lap to win. For the sake of NZ I hope he is ...but that Japanese horse has all the favours here.

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19 minutes ago, Red Rum said:

Three times this year TAS could not run down winner at lower grade ,with  longer straights to work with . He has to drop in probably at rear Saturday ,  I cannot see him rounding up the  whole field of WFA horses trained to the minute , it's everyone's grand final and  with only that  short straight to work with ,  slingshot or no slingshot .

Wouldn't mind being proved wrong though as Jamie Richards seems a good guy and gets the ammo but makes use of it . 

COGH ran in same two US races as Adelaide did but didn't do as well. 2014 Adelaide ran second in Belmont Derby , forth that day was Gallo Chop . All these years later he still makes it onto reserves , that's some horse .

perfectly summarised RR

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7 hours ago, Trump said:

Although going off prematurend'ly is appealing to some, I think that the weather may play its part with rain Friday and a max of 14degrees on Sat. I think that Waller will have Verry Elleegant primed for this and a possible slow track will help her and not help the Japs. TAS is a big chance if he’s ready to run the big race. Imho, this is not a strong Cox Plate. Therefore, Verry Ellegant for me from TAS.

VE is her own worst enemy, still 'hanging around', she will have to drop the bit quickly. Cant see her beating these international quality types esp  the Jap runner and Avilius

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It would be very interesting to compile a list on NZ trained runners in Aussie Group 1 races and the barrier draws that have been allocated - I may be a conspiracy theorist, but has anyone else wondered why we always seem to draw the carpark - we can't be that unlucky!?

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39 minutes ago, Catalano said:

It would be very interesting to compile a list on NZ trained runners in Aussie Group 1 races and the barrier draws that have been allocated - I may be a conspiracy theorist, but has anyone else wondered why we always seem to draw the carpark - we can't be that unlucky!?

I think Murray Baker has over 20 Grp 1 wins in Australia.

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4 hours ago, Red Rum said:

Three times this year TAS could not run down winner at lower grade ,with  longer straights to work with . He has to drop in probably at rear Saturday ,  I cannot see him rounding up the  whole field of WFA horses trained to the minute , it's everyone's grand final and  with only that  short straight to work with ,  slingshot or no slingshot .

Wouldn't mind being proved wrong though as Jamie Richards seems a good guy and gets the ammo but makes use of it . 

COGH ran in same two US races as Adelaide did but didn't do as well. 2014 Adelaide ran second in Belmont Derby , forth that day was Gallo Chop . All these years later he still makes it onto reserves , that's some horse .

The Shark had to round them up over shorter with a weight disadvantage,and they had perfect trips and a kick. The ride will be key, and this looks a jockeys race this year unlike recent editions. With rain you must say Avilius goes close :rcf-rich-1: ... but im hoping Opie can produce the headlines:rcfe-smile: :rcfe-happy-2:

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