RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
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Are races getting faster?

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1 hour ago, Baz (NZ) said:

Doesn't apply to Ellerslie's times? :rcf-thinking-1:
 

Ellerslie Track Records.png

The High regards time was run on the inside course Baz ,and Bonecrusher held one in there as well as a 2yo over a distance around 820 from memory ?.Some slick times in there but Catarmarcas 880 was special. 43.6 800m , Which would equate to a 54.4 1000m .. I think Mr Illusion held the 1000 record at around 54.7 in the 80s as well .. then heres a steeplechase time ran by Classen that looked unbeatable during an unusually dry spell in winter years ago.... Hard to argue those figures Baz :rcfe-like:

 

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And here's the current North American records. Many from the 90's and prior.
 
Dirt Course
Distance
Horse
Age
Weight
Time*
Track
Date
Two Furlongs
Winning Brew
2
119
:20.57
Penn National
May 14, 2008
Two and One Half Furlongs         
Bedazzle Seattle
6
115
:25.83
Delta Downs
March 15, 2014
Three Furlongs
Eclat
5
123
:31.01
Remington Park
Nov 28, 2005
Three And One Half Furlongs
Officer's Charm
5
122
:37.39
Northlands Park
May 1, 2015
Four Furlongs
Oklahoma Natural
11
120
:43.20
Fair Meadows
Jul 28, 2012
Four And One Half Furlongs
Motivo
5
118
:49.00
Yavapai Downs
Sep 5, 2006
 
King Justin
6
118
:49.00
Yavapai Downs
Jun 2, 2007
Five Furlongs
Chinook Pass
3
113
:55.⅕
Longacres
Sep 17, 1982
Five And One Half Furlongs
Hollywood Harbor
5
118
1:00.87
Emerald Downs
Apr 22, 2012
Six Furlongs
Twin Sparks
6
114
1:06.49
Turf Paradise
Nov 21, 2009
Six And One Half Furlongs
I Keep Saying
5
124
1:12.94
Emerald Downs
July 27, 2014
Seven Furlongs
Rich Cream
5
118
1:19.⅖
Hollywood Park
May 28, 1980
 
Time to Explode
3
117
1:19.⅖
Hollywood Park
Jun 26, 1982
Seven And One Half Furlongs
Awesome Daze
5
119
1:26.26
Hollywood Park
Nov 23, 1997
One Mile
Dr. Fager
4
134
1:32.⅕
Arlington
Aug 24, 1968
 
Najran
4
113
1:32.24
Belmont Park
May 7, 2003
One Mile And Forty Yards
Zafarrancho (ARG)
5
112
1:38.⅕
Rockingham Park
Jun 19, 1987
One Mile And Seventy Yards
Schedule (GB)
3
115
1:37.90
Meadowlands
Oct 15, 2004
 
With Probability
4
119
1:37.90
Meadowlands
Oct 28, 2005
One And One Sixteenth Miles
Hoedown's Day
5
119
1:38.⅖
Bay Meadows
Oct 23, 1983
One And One Eighth Miles
Simply Majestic
4
114
1:45.00
Golden Gate Fields
Apr 2, 1988
One And Three Sixteenth Miles
Riva Ridge
4
127
1:52.⅖
Aqueduct
Jul 4, 1973
 
Farma Way
4
119
1:52.55
Pimlico
May 11, 1991
One And One Fourth Miles
Spectacular Bid
4
126
1:57.⅘
Santa Anita Park
Feb 3, 1980
One And Five Sixteenth Miles
Gold Star Deputy
5
116
2:07.32
Aqueduct
Apr 10, 1999
One And Three Eighth Miles
Demi's Bret
4
116
2:12.31
Aqueduct
Oct 26, 1997
One And Seven Sixteenth Miles
Who's in Command
5
111
2:23.00
Exhibition Park
Aug 10, 1987
One And One Half Miles
Secretariat
3
126
2:24.00
Belmont Park
Jun 9, 1973
One And Nine Sixteenth Miles
Well Lit
5
120
2:35.77
Sportsman's Park
Apr 25, 1992
One And Five Eighth Miles
Swaps
4
130
2:38.⅕
Hollywood Park
Jul 25, 1956
One And Three Fourth Miles
Paper Junction
4
123
2:50.40
Lincoln Race Course
Nov 10, 1985
One And Seven Eighth Miles
Asserche
6
123
3:11.56
Laurel Park
Mar 20, 1994
Two Miles
Kelso
7
124
3:19.⅕
Aqueduct
Oct 31, 1964


 

Turf Course

:

Distance
Horse
Age
Weight
Time*
Track
Date
Four And One Half Furlongs
Red Dwarf
6
120
:48.96
Mountaineer
Sep 30, 2013
Five Furlongs
Pay Any Price
7
116
:53.61
Gulfstream Park
Mar 11, 2017
Five And One Half Furlongs
Carotari
3
120
1:00.21
Saratoga
Aug 17, 2019
Six Furlongs
Disco Partner
5
122
1:05.67
Belmont Park
Jun 10, 2017
Six And One Half Furlongs
Queen Del Valle
3
116
1:12.93
Woodbine
Jun 11, 2017
Seven Furlongs
Silent Poet
4
117
1:19.22
Woodbine
Aug 24, 2019
Seven And One Half Furlongs
A Diehl
7
119
1:25.15
Indiana Downs
May 7, 2012
One Mile
Mandurah
6
117
1:31.23
Monmouth Park
Jun 6, 2010
 
Oscar Performance
4
124
1:31.23
Belmont Park
Jun 17, 2018
One Mile And Forty Yards
Castaneto (ARG)
7
115
1:38.08
Atlantic City
Jun 28, 1991
One Mile And Seventy Yards
Aborigine
6
119
1:37 1/5
Penn National
Aug 20, 1978
One And One Sixteenth Miles
Told
4
123
1:38
Penn National
Sep 14, 1980
One And One Eighth Miles
Kostroma (IRE)
5
117
1:43.92
Santa Anita Park
Oct 20, 1991
One And Three Sixteenth Miles
Toonerville
4
120
1:51 2/5
Hialeah Park
Feb 7, 1976
One And One Fourth Miles
Red Giant
4
124
1:57.16
Oak Tree at Santa Anita
Sep 27, 2008
One And Five Sixteenth Miles
Ruff Mack
5
114
2:06 4/5
Waterford Park
Aug 25, 1962
One And Three Eighth Miles
With Approval (ON)
4
118
2:10.26
Belmont Park
Jun 17, 1990
One And Seven Sixteenth Miles
Giant Hope
4
120
2:17.64
Gulfstream Park
Mar 12, 2006
One And One Half Miles
Twilight Eclipse
4
123
2:22.63
Gulfstream Park
Mar 23, 2013
One And Five Eighth Miles
Tom Swift
5
110
2:37
Saratoga
Aug 23, 1978
One And Three Fourth Miles
Inaugural Address
6
121
2:53.35
Mountaineer
Aug 15, 2005
One and Seven Eighth Miles
Code's Best
6
121
3:08.23
Mountaineer
Sep 4, 2000
Two Miles
Call To Mind (GB)
4
115
3:16:78
Belmont Park
Jun 8, 2018

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20 minutes ago, Pam Robson said:

Thick I obviously am...but i cant decipher one side of that.

One furlong is 201 metres and a mile is 1609 m

seven sixteenth of a mile ( 7/16 ) or 700/1600 which gives you the metres  ..700 aprox ,so 1 mile and 7/16 is 2300m aprox

7/8 of a mile.... You know a mile is 1600 m (aprox) so the 8 represents this....8x  200 is 1600 m so each unit represrnts 200m so the 7 is 1400 m .

probably not the best way to break it down but you can do it without a calculator

If your comparing times from other tracks just divide the distance  by the time and multiply or divide depending on which distance is greater, brilliant for greyhounds where there is no mention of metres per second 

example   Diamond lovers 1.07.7 1200m

                  High regards  1.14.4 1300m

1300 divided by 1200 is 1.083333

so 1.14.4 (74.4 seconds) divided by 1.08333   Is 68 .67 or 1.08.67  ...just under  1 sec slower than Diamond lover ( although an extra 100 m , so only a gauge) 

Form 1 ( year ?) Math but has its place

allowances obviously between different tracks depending on topography and circuit nature... works brilliant punting dishlickers as there are mostly different  distances on every circuit. 

 

 

 

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Almost impossible for the times to be faster overall. Tracks never used to get watered within an inch of their lives and had people who knew about racing surfaces looking after those surfaces, horses used to be drugged far more often, jockeys used to starve/ drug/ exercise themselves to make the weights which were on a lower scale, and technology meant that no one could cheat the real time. Add to that the fact that many courses' distances weren't properly accurate and you've got a lot against faster times.

Then you've got the unfortunate process of racing greed where the demand for quicker returns is steering us towards 2 and three year old racing. Horses don't really mature until they are 4-5 so pushing these animals earlier is detrimental to creating optimal speed at a later age. A big study was done on this in Japan in the early 2000's. This is what they found

image.png.3be5815f8f9b71fa8f2f61db88565add.png 

You've got to admire the stand out performance in those lists though and that is Dr Fager's Metropolitan Mile win in 1.32 and 1/5th carrying 134lbs (60kgs). That was some run and was a World record at the time. But you've got to remember that in the US they run 20m before the timer starts.

The fastest speed for any horse was recorded in 2008 where the filly Winning Brew ran 70.76kph or 20.57 seconds over 402m (let's round it off).  So over the distances the equivalent would be:

1000            51.43 

1200         1.01.71

1400        1.11.99

1600        1.22.27

2000        1.42.85

2400        2.03.42

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Remember Better loosen ups Cox plate in 90,Stylish Century went like last weeks  pay and set up the 2040 races best time 2.01.5 (1.59.1 ) The horse went on to win the Japan Cup .What does a horse like Winx do given a similar scenario? Stylish Centurys beaten time bettered Winxs best mark id say, and Solvit, The phantom chance and Better loosen ups marks all better than anything in the last 20 plus years, whether  any track surface upgrade has been an influence i dont know although the standard for 2500m is comparable

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1 hour ago, poundforpound said:

Animal production systems require the removal of environmental factors ( or exact environmental factors replicated across the species ) and the selection of breeding partners based on specific criteria to improve the breed....and that means scientifically measurable criteria, as in pig or chicken systems where the measure is kilos gained per kilo of food consumed, or soft tissue to bone ratio at say 20 weeks of age ( I’m trying to remember this shit from Uni 30 years ago ), anyway the thing with thoroughbreds is that we have no standardized environmental conditions and we’re breeding using very subjective criteria that differs from country to country.

I’d have thought Japan is worth looking at because they’re doing something right given that 30 years ago the thoroughbred world was laughing at them, but now they seem to have a plethora of sound fast good actioned stayers

The other consideration is that the TB breed might be maxed out, it can’t get any better, or faster, because the criteria we’ve used for selection has ignored vulnerabilities like bone density and the breed has become self limiting because of fragile genes we’ve deliberately selected 

Just my rambling thoughts, feel free to crucify me 

 

 

All of the above [ IMHO]

I recall an owner of mine commenting about Japanese racing when Yamanin Vital was re-imported to stand at White Robe.

She said  'do you realise that this horse broke 2 min for 2000m ?  and he certainly wasn't one of their good ones,  far from it ' .

 

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On 10/21/2019 at 10:34 AM, Pam Robson said:

All of the above [ IMHO]

I recall an owner of mine commenting about Japanese racing when Yamanin Vital was re-imported to stand at White Robe.

She said  'do you realise that this horse broke 2 min for 2000m ?  and he certainly wasn't one of their good ones,  far from it ' .

 

The Two minute mark has been pushed by a few donkeys here as well , and even by a few at Thames Pammie, and talking Good ones Pop rock and delta Blies didnt rate either. Love this game :rcfe-like:

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