RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
tim vince

In my view

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Another irrational decision by handicapping sub committee.horse with more than 2 wins can't go below 45.why.if you are a 75 year old golfer and u were once on 2 should they make your max 20.really its another in th he long list of decisions that really make no sense.i  would like to get them face to face and take them on.also no discretion conti he's but there is discretion if you read on.bugger me.

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Sub committees should not be making decisions that affect racing.     Yes, they can make suggestions but these should be referred back to the clubs/interested parties (owners/trainers/horsemen) before decisions are made willy nilly by one or two people who it appears think they know or are told by authorities they know more/better than those directly involved in the industry.

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Go back to the old sysem, 1 win, up 1 grade, with more races for 2 and 3 year olds. Go back a class if horse has 6 unplaced starts, further back than 6th inclusive but no further than 2 win class. Quite simple to follow, 2 year olds get 1 penalty for each second win unless the stake to the winner is more than $20,000.

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IF they did I think "concessions" should be given based on stakes.    But it's really a damned if you do situation - depending on ability of horse you are racing.    And this debate will continue ad infinitum unless the racing population can be substantially increased so that like against like is a reality.      How can we increase the numbers?     How can we keep average or less ability horses in NZ?       The situation has spiralled and I am afraid leaving the decisions on racing in the hands of the breeders has never inspired confidence and I can't ever see it working.      Political intervention must be genuine, not just vote catching!     And the assistance of the politicians over the past 10 or more years has been as effective as a plastic bag riddled with holes for storing liquids.   Hell,you'll all say i paint a negative picture, and there I agree with you but what then inspires confidence - I can't see anything.

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All they are doing is creating a class within a class.they are admitting their own system is flawed.whoever had this idea should go back to rating system school.trouble is they never went in the fist place.skipped first 15 years.

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On 10/13/2019 at 8:11 AM, tim vince said:

Another irrational decision by handicapping sub committee.horse with more than 2 wins can't go below 45.why.if you are a 75 year old golfer and u were once on 2 should they make your max 20.really its another in th he long list of decisions that really make no sense.i  would like to get them face to face and take them on.also no discretion conti he's but there is discretion if you read on.bugger me.

Spastics.

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1 hour ago, tim vince said:

Don't be unkind.

Probably not up to it.haha

 

Doing the best they can with what they have. Which is nothing. Why not just use the blueprint of the greatest racing jurisdiction in the world?

Oh, course not, lets bastardize and fuck with it and listen to a bunch of idiots who cant understand why an 8yo 90 start 3 win horse who has cost their owners 70k doesnt deserve to race maidens he is flat out beating.

Spastics.

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Tim, by far the most disadvantaged horses by the ratings have been 1 win horses.

They can clear maidens and run straight into Bird of Paradise.  Now they will avoid Bird of Paradise & friends once they get to R44.

The 2+ win horses aren't really much worse off, they will eventually race in the same fields as now, but just not until the 1 wins have scored their 2nd win.

This will create more 2 win horses.

It does not address a fundamental problem that a horse winning its 2nd race MUST be assessed higher than ANY horse who has just won a maiden.

Also reassessments for age group racing must take account of the actual ratings of the opposition.  Alta Maestro won the first 2yo race of his year, he was reassessed just like any other maiden winner.  A week or so later he beat the same field but copped another full re-rating.  So twice he beat maidens, and twice he was fully penalised.  At seasons end they introduced the R75 ceiling for 2yos, but this would not have been necessary if the 2yos were re-rated relative to the ratings of their opposition (keeping the max increase in case Tuapeka Knight debuts &  beats Starship).

Yes - this would mean that Lazarus would have got 0 or 1 point for his Messenger win, but he should not be penalised for beating horses 10+ points inferior to him off level marks.

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How long is a piece of string?      On one hand the answer would appear to be more horses racing.    But then we would complain that the better horses would win the better staked races and the poorer horses would be eliminated from the fields - clubs like Auckland would no doubt love to get back to the "glory" days when they were selective as to which grade of horse raced there.    So the owners of the poorer horses would have to travel their pride & joys expensive distances to get a race and if they lucky enough to win after the trainer/driver/float operators etc etc got their bite the owner would be left out of pocket.     Run more races you say - but the well dressed we know betters would not grant licences for further racing and also the money being wagered these days would no doubt financially debar this.    So we are back to where we are today - the authorities don't give a rats and the only ones to profit are the owners of Jimbo :rcf-poo:    As i ask - how long is a piece of string.      

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11 minutes ago, MICHAEL HOUSE said:

Tim. 

Most logical answer was create the new bottom of 35 ......or just leave it as is

Pure genius!

 ... and in 12 months time when EXACTLY the same situation occurs with a log jam in the 35-40 rating range we drop the bottom to 30. And the 12 months after that when exactly situation occurs with a log jam in the 30-35 rating range we drop the bottom to ....

It's NCEA Level 1 maths guys!

The problem isn't anything to do with what the top or bottom ratings are!

The problem is that the points matrix is skewed way too far in favour of horses going down the ratings as compared to those going up the ratings. Pretty soon anything 55 points and above will be considered FFA class as everyone else has either been driven below that mark, or sold overseas because they rose above it and couldn't compete in the "new FFA class"!

Catering to the weakest of the bottom dwellers (40-45 ratings) has now become an obsession because of a ratings system that's mathematically guaranteed to send everything except the very best to the bottom!

A 10yo kid could grasp this concept but the industry is run by people who don't understand the basic maths behind it ... and encouraged by trainers to "dig the hole deeper"!

It's no wonder the game is in a death spiral!

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JackSprat

Looks like YOU will be the one spending another year in Form 2.

The new policy recreates a c1, with 1 win horses only allowed below R45.  But with no horses being re-rated all of the incumbent 2+ winners who are sub45 remain there until they win. 

MHouse’s suggestion allows the 1win Only class to start very quickly. 

And, it was so OBVIOUS that it didn’t need mentioning, 2+ win horses now can Not fall to the bottom which Decreases the horses available for the log-jam down there.

However the issue of a maiden winner becoming anything from 48 through to 58 has not been addressed. NZTR maiden winners get 2 Points more at Ellerslie than they do at Hokitika. 

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Are you a consultant to the handicapping/rating system policy makers Pickel? You seem to be on the same distorted wave length.

A genuine "ratings system" is a very simple system to create and even simpler to implement. Hell I have first year programmers in my employ that could throw it together in a day!

It's the continuous adding of artificial "bandaid measures" and special classes for the increasing numbers of bottom dwellers being created by an obviously flawed system that are digging a deeper hole for the industry by the day.

Judging by the disaster that the ratings system has delivered I doubt the creators even did any modelling to forecast it's future impact. The ballooning 40-45 rating logjam was entirely foreseeable, as is the certainty that it will only get worse.

Adding "new bottoms" for special classes will serve no purpose other than to move the "balloon" to a new disaster spot.

Actually come to think of it, I doubt that the "brains behind the ratings system" have the slightest idea what "modelling to forecast future impact" is.

Until the likes of you and the powers that be understand that it's the maths behind the system that are the REAL problem, the ongoing "shuffling of the chairs on the Titanic" will continue ... and be guaranteed to fail.

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I used to think that change could be effected through rational and constructive debate.  However, harness racing seems to suffer from a distinct lack of foresight and direction.  There are some well known signs of ineffective leadership.  Looking at the list below, I suspect that HRNZ and its leadership team would tick all these boxes!!

  • Communication problems
  • Inability to make decisions
  • Poor performance
  • Lacking conflict resolution skills
  • Quick to blame instead of taking responsibility
  • Slow reaction to change
  • Lack of focus and attention to detail
  • Comfortable with the status quo
  • Forget about the customer
  • Lack personal and team accountability

If this is the case, how do we make changes.  The rating system is just one aspect of the Industry that has been met with Universal condemnation. Every change seems to simply try and paper over some of the cracks, and simply doesn't work

I dont have all the answers, and readily acknowledge that there is NO silver bullet to fix the problems we are facing, but its a compilation of great ideas, and successful implementation of these that may see us survive to 2030 and beyond.

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Most of the problems facing the Industry today stem from lack of horse numbers combined with the ever growing flow of horses being exported due to what are left, which mainly those the Aussies/Yanks/Canuks can't even place which are so far out of their depth and forced to run out of their class ability just to get a run.       A year or two back I seem to remember that there was a call to tighten the qualifying standards but this was met with horror by the clubs who (and rightly) were after anything just to enable them run meetings.       So we are doomed to a sport that looks more and more to the filthy rich who have even less competition with their top price stock than ever before.    Unfortunately this situation was allowed to develop unchallenged by the intelligentia who not only condoned the siphoning off of numbers but also applauded the studs who inflated their costs to a level that the industry was hard pressed to sustain.    Furthermore the TAB (or Racing Board or whatever other disguise they operate under) were allowed unchallenged to take over the Industry (including the gallops & poopers) to a state now where they dictate and the only resistance from the heirarchy of the codes is yes sir, yes sir.      I can almost guarantee nobody can say just what percentage of the actual money invested by punters is returned.     It is surely time the codes said this is our product not yours and we will run it, thank you.    

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