RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
tasman man 11

Melody Belle / J. Richards

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I was not confident that Proaeelwas going to cut the mustard with the best Oz 3yos but that last run has forced me to reconsider.

As for MB clearly a class above the rest in NZ this Spring (and all of last season). I agree with the Myer or Kennedy Mile as a good target for her after the Livamol...freshen up, back to the 1600, pref against her own sex ...you'd have to say MB is the equal of Shillelagh, wouldnt you? 

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It’s very easy to forget how good past champions are. Mufhasa was an exceptional horse and his 2 G1 wins in Australia, the Toorak and the Futurity topped off a great career, following his 2 wins in the G1 Telegraph, 2 wins in the G1 Waikato Sprint and a Captain Cook G1. Then there was his win in the Riccarton Mile. Some of his placed runs were great also. His 2nd in the Geo Ryder in Sydney against the best was a beauty. I’m not sure why, but after all that success he was transferred out of McKee’s care into the Bruce Wallace barn, but didn’t win a race for Bruce. He was a great horse to watch.

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13 hours ago, Baz (NZ) said:

In saying that...IMHO I don't think the Toorak HCP is worthy of its Group One status....Group Two maybe.

Mmm..last year Land of Plenty beat Hartnell, Shilleagh, Black Heart Bart. Tosen Stardom won year before and followed it up with a win in the G1 MacKinnon Stakes. Past winners incl Galilee, Gunsynd, Tauto, Mufhasa, Red Dazzler, Alamosa, Show a Heart, Regal Roller etc. I think it’s far more worthy of G1 status than you think. If that race was downgraded then most of NZ G1 races would have to have a serious look at. Far better for NZ if The Toorak stays at G1. 

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1973 Princess Eulogy won the Toorak  and I won a motza.Last on the turn.First year in Oz and what fun it was.The Spring Carnival was an eye opener.

Punted on Glengowan in mega doubles well before and went down in close finish to the Cup.

They used to serve grog in small plastic beakers..05sec to drink it.

Oh how I'd love to revisit those days.Worked in a canning factory to raise punting funds.

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7 minutes ago, Memphis2 said:

1973 Princess Eulogy won the Toorak  and I won a motza.Last on the turn.First year in Oz and what fun it was.The Spring Carnival was an eye opener.

Punted on Glengowan in mega doubles well before and went down in close finish to the Cup.

They used to serve grog in small plastic beakers..05sec to drink it.

Oh how I'd love to revisit those days.Worked in a canning factory to raise punting funds.

I was on course that day. Frankie Rey’s surging thru the middle between Glengowan and Daneson. I always thought that Glengowan went 200m too early. But that’s history now!

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How she does in Aussie this time will certainly endorse the quality ( or lack of) of our general racing contingent. I did think when she loomed up on the turn last week that she was winning but could also see a Cox Plate start in the offing. Time will tell.

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Churlish is how I would describe any knocking of Melody Belle. Her performances in her last 2 runs have been exceptional.

 

The discussion about where she rates against Aust opposition (and against past top horses) is all opinion at this point and hopefully gets clarified by her going back there this season. 

 

Surely at least she has confirmed the correctness of her horse of the year title for last season.

 

Looks to me that she goes even better when there is rain around - maybe the Ifraaj mare provided that extra talent.

The other interesting thing is that she won less each time in the 2019 versions of the HB first 2 legs than she did when winning the same races in 2018. More evidence of our declining industry.

 

 

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4 hours ago, Trump said:

I was on course that day. Frankie Rey’s surging thru the middle between Glengowan and Daneson. I always thought that Glengowan went 200m too early. But that’s history now!

Yeh great day tho. Noel Harris was very young but a great jockey .

Funny story. Went to Sydney first. Made our way down through Canberra. Stayed in a boarding house there for two weeks. I was staying in a room with a bloke who told me his brother was a jockey . The fellows name was Ric Reys. You would think I would have got the quinella 

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12 hours ago, Trump said:

It’s very easy to forget how good past champions are. Mufhasa was an exceptional horse and his 2 G1 wins in Australia, the Toorak and the Futurity topped off a great career, following his 2 wins in the G1 Telegraph, 2 wins in the G1 Waikato Sprint and a Captain Cook G1. Then there was his win in the Riccarton Mile. Some of his placed runs were great also. His 2nd in the Geo Ryder in Sydney against the best was a beauty. I’m not sure why, but after all that success he was transferred out of McKee’s care into the Bruce Wallace barn, but didn’t win a race for Bruce. He was a great horse to watch.

there was a 'falling out' between the trainer and the strapper ...the owner decided to keep the horse with the strapper! 

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Kiwi star Melody Belle will not contest the Cox Plate.

Melody Belle posted her eighth Group I win with an outstanding performance in last Saturday’s Livamol Classic (2040m) at Hastings but will drop back in trip for her next outing.

Managing owner John Galvin released a statement advising Melody Belle would have her next run at Flemington on Victoria Derby day.

Galvin said he met with trainer Jamie Richards and consulted with Te Akau Racing boss David Ellis and Singapore trainer Mark Walker before coming to a decision.

“Jamie reported that Melody Belle has come through her Triple Crown campaign in great order and he cannot fault her physically,” Galvin said in his statement.

“Accordingly, the decision was made that she would campaign in Melbourne in the coming weeks. Jamie and I decided that the right race for her in this campaign would be the Group I Empire Rose Stakes.

“We did give serious consideration to the Cox Plate, however the consensus reached was to go for the Empire Rose instead and if she were to race well in that event, then the option of backing up into the MacKinnon Stakes would be available to us.

https://www.racenet.com.au/news/no-cox-plate-for-melody-belle-20191007

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I’m very happy and applaud the decision by Fortuna to target the Empire Rose over 1600m. Her residual fitness will set her up for this race and after all those “NZ Group 1” wins, this will define her - if she wins. Can’t wait to see her perform. It’s a Fillies and Mares Race, so the weaker option, and she will be more competitive in that against her own sex rather than do a Winx against all-comers! 

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Re TAS. That Epsom run was his best career performance. Better than his 2000g win imho. The Epsom was a really classy field and he beat all bar a really good horse (Kolding) and gave a lot of weight (4kg)to that horse. The fact that Kolding had won the Qld Guineas G2 and the Randwick Bill Ritchie G3, yet still got 4kg off TAS just goes to show that the Handicapper rated TAS’s 2000Guineas G1 win in NZ very highly. Kolding is top class and Jeez, can you imagine TAS on the big Flemington straight in the Emirates 1600m? Or will they go for the Cox Plate? He’s good. 

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4 minutes ago, Trump said:

Re TAS. That Epsom run was his best career performance. Better than his 2000g win imho. The Epsom was a really classy field and he beat all bar a really good horse (Kolding) and gave a lot of weight (4kg)to that horse. The fact that Kolding had won the Qld Guineas G2 and the Randwick Bill Ritchie G3, yet still got 4kg off TAS just goes to show that the Handicapper rated his 2000Guineas G1 win in NZ very highly. Kolding is top class and Jeez, can you imagine TAS on the big Flemington straight in the Emirates 1600m? Or will they go for the Cox Plate? He’s good. 

TAS didn't win the 2,000 guineas. He ran 4th from memory. The Riccarton win you are thinking of was the group 2 Couplands mile. He has never won a group one race.

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Stand be to corrected but the Epsom does not appear to be the lead up race for many Plate winners , bar Winx but she could have had had her  lead up in the 55 second challenge the night before and still be classy enough to win 16 hours later .

 

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51 minutes ago, poundforpound said:

TAS is far better than Melody Belle.....that’s why he’s going to the Cox Plate and she’s not .....

He may well eventually prove to be better than the mare, but just at the moment he is 9 group ones  and about $1.5m behind her, as well as an Australian group win behind her.

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8 minutes ago, poundforpound said:

Look at what Te Akau have planned for her, that tells you everything 

Her Australian group form is G2 in Queensland ... it’s still significant but it’s lengths below Sydney or Melbourne group form 

TAS can win the Cox Plate, she can’t .. it’s that simple and Te Akau knows it because they’re great thinkers 

How many Sydney and Melbourne group 1's have these 'great thinkers' won in the last 20 years?

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6 hours ago, poundforpound said:

TAS is far better than Melody Belle.....that’s why he’s going to the Cox Plate and she’s not .....

Really? I make her about 5l better than him at 1600. Perhaps he has improved though. On the face of it, I couldn't see either coming close to winning a Cox Plate.

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20 hours ago, Trump said:

Re TAS. That Epsom run was his best career performance. Better than his 2000g win imho. The Epsom was a really classy field and he beat all bar a really good horse (Kolding) and gave a lot of weight (4kg)to that horse. The fact that Kolding had won the Qld Guineas G2 and the Randwick Bill Ritchie G3, yet still got 4kg off TAS just goes to show that the Handicapper rated TAS’s 2000Guineas G1 win in NZ very highly. Kolding is top class and Jeez, can you imagine TAS on the big Flemington straight in the Emirates 1600m? Or will they go for the Cox Plate? He’s good. 

i don't think they'll target the Cox Plate. TAS takes a while to wind up, may not have the tactical speed/cornering ability for Moonee Valley. Much better at Flemington, imo.

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